Author Topic: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast (Read 17903 times)

astrobrian · « **on:** 05/25/2008 03:39 am »

Figured I would get this one started off, according to weather.com, it's a 60/40 at the moment but we know how that can change.

edit: as well as the info in the pad flow thread :cool:

ChrisGebhardt · « **Reply #1 on:** 05/26/2008 02:22 am »

A good start. But my experience with weather.com is that it's highly unreliable this far out and it has very little to no human element... meaning it's just a computer generated guess with very little to no human over-view. Let's wait til we get a little closer, but rdale did mention yesterday or Friday that Central Florida's usual summer-time pattern will be kicking back into gear toward the end of this week (which is what the local people started reporting this afternoon. Hmm... even the weather outlooks arrive quicker on NSF).

rdale · « **Reply #2 on:** 05/26/2008 03:09 am »

Nothing changed on updates this weekend so I wasn't going to bother reposting... Same story, about Friday central Florida is into a summertime pattern, with mid-80's and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

kraisee · « **Reply #3 on:** 05/26/2008 06:47 am »

Only my personal view, but Patrick AFB has been pretty good (better than most of the news outlets IMHO) at their forecasting for launches in recent years since I've lived around here. Their weekly forecast is online here:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061114-008.pdf

Looks like 10-30% chance of both precipitation and/or lightening and generally worsening in that range as the day goes on which isn't great news for a 'late in the day' 5:02pm EDT launch attempt.

But yes, it is still a relatively long range forecast still, so *anything* could still happen.

Ross.

cb6785 · « **Reply #4 on:** 05/26/2008 09:57 am »

Am I interpreting this sheet correctly when I say that the major concern at the moment would be the bigger amount of clouds in the afternoon?

rdale · « **Reply #5 on:** 05/26/2008 12:33 pm »

The concern is thunderstorms.

And if any good news comes this morning - computers have slightly lower chances of lightning on Saturday...

KSC Engineer · « **Reply #6 on:** 05/26/2008 03:49 pm »

Looks really dry there compared to most Memorial Days. Hopefully that will last until Saturday.

DaveS · « **Reply #7 on:** 05/28/2008 11:47 am »

Today's OPS Forecast for the launch on Saturday. Only a 20% chance of KSC weather prohibiting launch!

Ford Mustang · « **Reply #8 on:** 05/28/2008 12:07 pm »

Looks a heck of a lot better than what was posted earlier. Hopefully it'll stay that way.

dsmillman · « **Reply #9 on:** 05/28/2008 12:16 pm »

Full forecast available at:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

cb6785 · « **Reply #10 on:** 05/28/2008 12:22 pm »

- major concern beeing anvils
- 20% chance of weather prohibiting launch
- 5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

same for launchopportunity on sunday
little bit worse on monday (30% launch/ 10% tanking)

rdale · « **Reply #11 on:** 05/28/2008 01:34 pm »

Looks like the pattern change has been delayed just a bit - so Saturday still our best opportunity and it doesn't look that bad... Conditions worsen starting Sunday though.

psloss · « **Reply #12 on:** 05/28/2008 02:48 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 05/28/2008 01:34 pm

Looks like the pattern change has been delayed just a bit - so Saturday still our best opportunity and it doesn't look that bad... Conditions worsen starting Sunday though.

It's too early to worry about, but the forecast for two of the TAL sites was for marginal weather. I'll have to check back in and see where things are after tanking.

DaveS · « **Reply #13 on:** 05/29/2008 11:36 am »

Latest Wx forecast for KSC is holding steady at 20% for launch and 5% for tanking: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

cb6785 · « **Reply #14 on:** 05/29/2008 11:40 am »

Todays forecast is online: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

In short words:

- nothing's changed for saturday (still 20% chance of weather prohibiting launch)
- slightly worse conditions for sunday (from 20% chance of weather prohibiting launch to 30%)
- and also slightly worse conditions for monday (from 30% chance of weather prohibiting launch to 40%)

- everythings still looking good for tanking (5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking on saturday and sunday and 10% on monday)

rdale · « **Reply #15 on:** 05/29/2008 12:57 pm »

No change in my outlook for KSC - just seems that Patrick AFB's have come in line with my thoughts.

Zaragoza looks unusable due to clouds and a chance of storms, Moron looks only slightly better but not good -- high clouds at Istres but should be within limits.

Justin Space · « **Reply #16 on:** 05/29/2008 08:27 pm »

Apologies if this is dumb Rob, but I assume STS-124 and STS-125, as they stand right now with their launch dates, means the program will avoid the hurricane season? I know there's no way they'd want one at KSC anyway, but as far as launch delays due to such threats, 2008 won't factor?

Orbiter · « **Reply #17 on:** 05/29/2008 08:45 pm »

Justin, I would say watch Alma in the Pacific, its threating to cross over, and a landing in pact would be possible if it were to go if the High really digs in. Although Unlikley.
Also, for STS-125, October is still in hurricane season, and anything can happen.

rdale · « **Reply #18 on:** 05/29/2008 09:05 pm »

124 certainly won't have a launch affected by a hurricane, but 126 is still in-season...

Ronsmytheiii · « **Reply #19 on:** 05/29/2008 09:46 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 05/29/2008 09:05 pm

124 certainly won't have a launch affected by a hurricane, but 126 is still in-season...

Barely, and we rarely see hurricanes in November so I would not be concerned.

Orbiter · « **Reply #20 on:** 05/29/2008 10:07 pm »

Untrue, the launch is October 8th correct? And after 2005's Hurricane Season..
Early October is still considered Prime conditions for Hurricanes, on the decreasing side.

cb6785 · « **Reply #21 on:** 05/29/2008 10:16 pm »

STS-125 is currently October 8th and STS-126 November 10th

rdale · « **Reply #22 on:** 05/30/2008 03:50 am »

95% chance of good weather for Saturday at KSC from what I'm seeing now... Just a token possibility of a shower somewhere in the vicinity giving some high clouds, but I have a hard time seeing that happen.

TALsite · « **Reply #23 on:** 05/30/2008 07:52 am »

Quote from: rdale on 05/29/2008 12:57 pm

Zaragoza looks unusable due to clouds and a chance of storms...

Hi all,
Greetings from Zaragoza…

We have a rainy May. Good news for our planet, but bad days for flying Shuttles.

NOW Looking from my window:
we have a sunny day but the sky is becoming more and more cloudy.

In the image we saw predictions from the AEMET-Spain website.
First column shows:
Sky appearance
Rain possibilities %
Snow presence in XX meters (NOT INTERESTING)
Max. Temperature - Celsius (NOT INTERESTING)
Min. - Celsius (NOT INTERESTING)
Wind direction
Wind velocity (in kilometers/hour)
Max Ultra-Violet index (NOT INTERESTING)

Moron looks only a few better…

DaveS · « **Reply #24 on:** 05/30/2008 11:48 am »

L-1 day OPS forecast for STS-124/1J:

rdale · « **Reply #25 on:** 05/30/2008 02:15 pm »

SMG's abort landing forecasts -- all good except 2 out of 3 TAL's (FMI fine)

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2102Z
DATE: 05/31/08

RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 7 12010P17

TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA SCT020 BKN050 BKN100 7 10007P13
CHC TSRA WI 20NM

MORON...SPAIN
MRN SCT030 SCT070 BKN120 7 22009P15
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20NM

ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SCT060 BKN120 OVC200 7 10007P13

ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SKC 7 18006P11

PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 06/01/08 01Z TO 06/01/08 02Z
EDW SKC

cb6785 · « **Reply #26 on:** 05/30/2008 03:35 pm »

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

Todays forecast:

Saturday: - Major concern: Anvils
-20% chance of weather prohibiting launch
-0% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Sunday: - Major concern: Anvils
-30% chance of weather prohibiting launch
-5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Monday: - Major concern: Thunderstorms
-60% chance of weather prohibiting launch
-5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Orbiter · « **Reply #27 on:** 05/30/2008 11:10 pm »

Possible Tropical Cyclone forming the the Atlantic, the remains of Alma crossed over.

hobson911 · « **Reply #28 on:** 05/30/2008 11:54 pm »

The area that you are talking about is actually in the western Caribbean or near the Gulf of Belize. I do not think there is any worry as this system will move over the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple days. rdale can shed a little light on this.

rdale · « **Reply #29 on:** 05/31/2008 12:55 am »

I'm not much of a tropical guy - so I'll let the experts handle. No impact on launch.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.

rdale · « **Reply #30 on:** 05/31/2008 03:27 am »

98.36% chance of favorable weather at KSC for launch... Sunday looks fine now too - stormy weather not starting until Monday.

ChrisGebhardt · « **Reply #31 on:** 05/31/2008 03:38 am »

EXCELLENT!!! Thanks rdale! I've been following your launch forcasts for over a year now and they've been spot on.

Orbiter · « **Reply #32 on:** 05/31/2008 04:54 am »

Well, Apparently the system in the Caribbean has gained a closed Circulation now from Surface reports, and winds, and convection, but close to land. Its just a sign even a Day before a Space Shuttle Launch, a system can form. Watch the tropics closely this year.

MKremer · « **Reply #33 on:** 05/31/2008 05:49 am »

Quote from: Orbiter on 05/31/2008 04:54 am

Well, Apparently the system in the Caribbean has gained a closed Circulation now from Surface reports, and winds, and convection, but close to land. Its just a sign even a Day before a Space Shuttle Launch, a system can form. Watch the tropics closely this year.

Tropical systems may be bubbling up a bit more than usual this year, but that doesn't mean the KSC region of FL is in any more danger than usual. (Location and tracking of any formed storm is what's important, rather than how many are predicted beforehand.)

This current disturbance is nothing to worry about as far as affecting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The latest computer model tracks: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200890_model.html

astrobrian · « **Reply #34 on:** 05/31/2008 07:51 am »

Quote from: rdale on 05/31/2008 03:27 am

98.36% chance of favorable weather at KSC for launch... Sunday looks fine now too - stormy weather not starting until Monday.

Could you be more precise in your estimates sir, those number are far too vague

rfoshaug · « **Reply #35 on:** 05/31/2008 09:28 am »

Quote from: rdale on 05/31/2008 03:27 am

98.36% chance of favorable weather at KSC for launch... Sunday looks fine now too - stormy weather not starting until Monday.

Wow, that's a very accurate estimate of the inaccuracies involved in weather prediction.

It looks really good then!

Thanks for all the updates, rdale and everyone!!

cb6785 · « **Reply #36 on:** 05/31/2008 11:21 am »

Launch day's forecast:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

Today: - Major concern: Anvils
-20% chance of weather prohibiting launch
-0% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Sunday: - Major concern: Anvils
-30% chance of weather prohibiting launch
-5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Monday: - Major concern: Thunderstorms
-60% chance of weather prohibiting launch
-5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Nothing's changed from yesterday.

rdale · « **Reply #37 on:** 05/31/2008 03:50 pm »

Orbiter - to make it clear - the current system (tropical or not) has no impact on today's launch.

TAL: Rain at Zaragoza and forecast to continue. Good at Moron but forecast to worsen. Good at Istres and forecast to remain good.

Couple of raindrops developing west of the SLF, no concern as the sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon. No wind at all through about 45000ft, so unless a BIG storm develops west of Daytona Beach, anvils shouldn't be an issue.

rdale · « **Reply #38 on:** 05/31/2008 05:40 pm »

Weak showers popping west of SLF still and moving west... Zaragoza has had rain all morning, now throwing thunder in. Moron partly cloudy and now forecast to stay good, Istres sunny but chance of a thunderstorm in the area later.

siegfriedcqb · « **Reply #39 on:** 05/31/2008 07:12 pm »

psloss · « **Reply #40 on:** 05/31/2008 07:14 pm »

Latest observation posted was:
METAR KTTS 311855Z 12009G15KT 060V170 10SM FEW025 FEW085 29/23 A3006 RMK SLP179 1CU /0/ 1AC /1/ N1209/15 C1011/16 S0911/15

which has changed direction a little bit (the last three "fields" show observations from the ends of the runway and midfield)...

The SMG forecast for RTLS weather was 12010P17.

rdale · « **Reply #41 on:** 05/31/2008 08:56 pm »

Just a few clouds overhead, winds out of the northeast at 10mph with gusts to 19mph. All within limits.

Moron is clear, light west winds.

rdale · « **Reply #42 on:** 06/01/2008 12:47 am »

Launch weather: Mostly sunny, winds out of the northeast at 11 gusting to 18mph, some thunderstorms WAY in the distant northwest.

KTTS 312102Z 13010G16KT 090V170 10SM FEW025 FEW085 FEW250 29/22
A3003 RMK CB DSNT SW SLP169 1CB /1/ 1AC 1CI/2/ N1310/16
C1112/17 S1210/15=