Author Topic: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast (Read 17902 times)

astrobrian · « **on:** 05/25/2008 03:39 am »

Figured I would get this one started off, according to weather.com, it's a 60/40 at the moment but we know how that can change.

edit: as well as the info in the pad flow thread :cool:

ChrisGebhardt · « **Reply #1 on:** 05/26/2008 02:22 am »

A good start. But my experience with weather.com is that it's highly unreliable this far out and it has very little to no human element... meaning it's just a computer generated guess with very little to no human over-view. Let's wait til we get a little closer, but rdale did mention yesterday or Friday that Central Florida's usual summer-time pattern will be kicking back into gear toward the end of this week (which is what the local people started reporting this afternoon. Hmm... even the weather outlooks arrive quicker on NSF).

rdale · « **Reply #2 on:** 05/26/2008 03:09 am »

Nothing changed on updates this weekend so I wasn't going to bother reposting... Same story, about Friday central Florida is into a summertime pattern, with mid-80's and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

kraisee · « **Reply #3 on:** 05/26/2008 06:47 am »

Only my personal view, but Patrick AFB has been pretty good (better than most of the news outlets IMHO) at their forecasting for launches in recent years since I've lived around here. Their weekly forecast is online here:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061114-008.pdf

Looks like 10-30% chance of both precipitation and/or lightening and generally worsening in that range as the day goes on which isn't great news for a 'late in the day' 5:02pm EDT launch attempt.

But yes, it is still a relatively long range forecast still, so *anything* could still happen.

Ross.

cb6785 · « **Reply #4 on:** 05/26/2008 09:57 am »

Am I interpreting this sheet correctly when I say that the major concern at the moment would be the bigger amount of clouds in the afternoon?

rdale · « **Reply #5 on:** 05/26/2008 12:33 pm »

The concern is thunderstorms.

And if any good news comes this morning - computers have slightly lower chances of lightning on Saturday...

KSC Engineer · « **Reply #6 on:** 05/26/2008 03:49 pm »

Looks really dry there compared to most Memorial Days. Hopefully that will last until Saturday.

DaveS · « **Reply #7 on:** 05/28/2008 11:47 am »

Today's OPS Forecast for the launch on Saturday. Only a 20% chance of KSC weather prohibiting launch!

Ford Mustang · « **Reply #8 on:** 05/28/2008 12:07 pm »

Looks a heck of a lot better than what was posted earlier. Hopefully it'll stay that way.

dsmillman · « **Reply #9 on:** 05/28/2008 12:16 pm »

Full forecast available at:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

cb6785 · « **Reply #10 on:** 05/28/2008 12:22 pm »

- major concern beeing anvils
- 20% chance of weather prohibiting launch
- 5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

same for launchopportunity on sunday
little bit worse on monday (30% launch/ 10% tanking)

rdale · « **Reply #11 on:** 05/28/2008 01:34 pm »

Looks like the pattern change has been delayed just a bit - so Saturday still our best opportunity and it doesn't look that bad... Conditions worsen starting Sunday though.

psloss · « **Reply #12 on:** 05/28/2008 02:48 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 05/28/2008 01:34 pm

Looks like the pattern change has been delayed just a bit - so Saturday still our best opportunity and it doesn't look that bad... Conditions worsen starting Sunday though.

It's too early to worry about, but the forecast for two of the TAL sites was for marginal weather. I'll have to check back in and see where things are after tanking.

DaveS · « **Reply #13 on:** 05/29/2008 11:36 am »

Latest Wx forecast for KSC is holding steady at 20% for launch and 5% for tanking: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

cb6785 · « **Reply #14 on:** 05/29/2008 11:40 am »

Todays forecast is online: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

In short words:

- nothing's changed for saturday (still 20% chance of weather prohibiting launch)
- slightly worse conditions for sunday (from 20% chance of weather prohibiting launch to 30%)
- and also slightly worse conditions for monday (from 30% chance of weather prohibiting launch to 40%)

- everythings still looking good for tanking (5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking on saturday and sunday and 10% on monday)

rdale · « **Reply #15 on:** 05/29/2008 12:57 pm »

No change in my outlook for KSC - just seems that Patrick AFB's have come in line with my thoughts.

Zaragoza looks unusable due to clouds and a chance of storms, Moron looks only slightly better but not good -- high clouds at Istres but should be within limits.

Justin Space · « **Reply #16 on:** 05/29/2008 08:27 pm »

Apologies if this is dumb Rob, but I assume STS-124 and STS-125, as they stand right now with their launch dates, means the program will avoid the hurricane season? I know there's no way they'd want one at KSC anyway, but as far as launch delays due to such threats, 2008 won't factor?

Orbiter · « **Reply #17 on:** 05/29/2008 08:45 pm »

Justin, I would say watch Alma in the Pacific, its threating to cross over, and a landing in pact would be possible if it were to go if the High really digs in. Although Unlikley.
Also, for STS-125, October is still in hurricane season, and anything can happen.

rdale · « **Reply #18 on:** 05/29/2008 09:05 pm »

124 certainly won't have a launch affected by a hurricane, but 126 is still in-season...

Ronsmytheiii · « **Reply #19 on:** 05/29/2008 09:46 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 05/29/2008 09:05 pm

124 certainly won't have a launch affected by a hurricane, but 126 is still in-season...

Barely, and we rarely see hurricanes in November so I would not be concerned.