Author Topic: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?  (Read 18148 times)

Offline AresWatcher

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Talk is cheap, put your money where your mouth is time.

This poll is to gain a snapshot of where we all think this will head.

My personal feeling: I don't care, whatever works. I'm intrigued by both Ares and Direct, but I do feel that Direct, as much as it has merits, will not be adopted after all the billions have already been spent on Ares.

Vote your thoughts...
"One Percent for Space"

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #1 on: 04/13/2008 02:48 AM »
I voted no, primarily because I believe egos and self-centered stubbornness are more powerful motivators in today's political climate that are analysis and the wish to do the right thing.  Ares is a planned, intentional failure already, and sticking with it is borderline insane.  But insanity rules as long as you don't have to admit you might have been wrong.

Offline Takalok

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RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #2 on: 04/13/2008 03:32 AM »
The commit level to Ares is too high for DIRECT, and baring a political miracle, the likely scenario is NASA will make Ares work or NASA will never build another rocket ever again.

Edit:  Oh, BTW, my vote was "no."
Life is what happens while you're waiting for tomorrow.

Offline Norm Hartnett

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RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #3 on: 04/13/2008 04:11 AM »
I am a child of the sixties. The system is corrupt, Direct doesn't stand a chance.

“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline cb6785

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #4 on: 04/13/2008 09:44 AM »
I really hope  they consider DIRECT before Ares ruins NASA (except they suprise us all and Ares gets a miracle and works all of sudden like it should) but honestly I don't think they'll change their mind. IMHO working on Constellation as an US-only project is a huge mistake itself...Why develope things that are flying without bigger problems already when the project would be a profit to everyone on this planet??
You know, if I’d had a seat you wouldn’t still see me in this thing. - Chuck Yeager

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Offline renclod

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #5 on: 04/13/2008 10:03 AM »
Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?

What do you mean by "powerpoint" ?

I have never seen a Microsoft Office Powerpoint presentation of Direct. Just Adobe Acrobat pdf's. But there are some related Wikipedia entries, at least one Youtube clip, one U.S. Senate subcomitee public hearing question on a RealMedia video, two TheSpaceShow audio clips, a few e-news articles, blogging by the cartload and forum posts in the thousands.

Offline Quintus

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RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #6 on: 04/13/2008 10:09 AM »
It looks as though some varient of the Ares 1 design will be the CLV come what may. However I do wonder whether they will move to a 2.0 launch architecture for the Moon and that would give them the option to scale down Ares V somewhat so that it might end up resembling the Jupiter 232 more than the current baseline...sort of Semi-Direct! I voted yes more out of hope than a real conviction that a change will come. I hope I'm being too pessimistic

Offline cb6785

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #7 on: 04/13/2008 10:47 AM »
If they'd use something like Jupiter 232 for the moon, the entire idea of Ares 1 serving as some kind of tech-demonstrator for Ares 5 would be rubbish and NASA would have spend years with developing something they don't really need.
You know, if I’d had a seat you wouldn’t still see me in this thing. - Chuck Yeager

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Offline marsavian

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RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #8 on: 04/13/2008 10:58 AM »
I doubt it unless the new President and/or Administrator has a different mindset to Bush/Griffin. Still it's been a good exercise which has shown everyone that there are very viable Shuttle derived alternatives to the chosen ESAS architecture with different advantages. It's also added competitive pressure to the 1.5 launch executors in a virtual and PR way which is not a bad thing either. If NASA can reduce the gaps from Shuttle to COTS to Ares I I think they will defuse a lot of the political ill will that currently exists for Ares I making DIRECT even less likely.

Offline rocketguy101

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RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #9 on: 04/13/2008 04:55 PM »

Well, at least one is in the hanger awaiting paint, final check out, and launch :laugh:  :laugh:  :laugh:

see http://www.rocketryforum.com/showthread.php?t=44788

David

Offline Zach

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #10 on: 04/13/2008 06:20 PM »
Griffin will be out in a year, Ares will be dropped along with the mandate of "shuttle derived" and NASA will be forced, kicking and screaming, out of launch vehicle development and operation.  I voted no.

Offline meiza

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #11 on: 04/13/2008 07:06 PM »
This poll would be better if there were probability bins so a histogram and distribution would form.
Say 0-10% 10-20% 20-30% etc...

As such the dichotomy is so strong. A lot is dependent on politics.

Offline gladiator1332

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #12 on: 04/13/2008 08:02 PM »
I voted No, as I think NASA is going to go with Ares or nothing at all. The '08 Election and Griffin leaving are going to affect a lot of things, however, McCain has said he will go full steam ahead with Ares, Clinton said we need Ares I / Orion, and Obama will probably scrap the whole thing.

Offline cpcjr

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RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #13 on: 04/13/2008 09:34 PM »
I voted yes, because it is already more than that. If nothing else it has helped fuel the descussion about the problems with Ares I  and V, by providing an alternative for comparison.
With out Direct it would be hard to argue against Ares I because the question could always be what is your alternative.

That said if the Question were will Direct ever  actualy fly, then I would have to say unfortunetly no.  Not because it won't work but because it will never be given the chance to work.

Common sence says to go with the plan that has the greatest chance of political survival rather than going a dream vehical that will probably will be defunded to point of cancelation.

Direct stands the greatest chance of political survival because it builds on what excists and thus needing less devlopment, making future politcal action less critical. Ares V is the dream vehical that will probably will be defunded to point of cancelation.

Unfortunetly NASA has a history of going with the dream vehical that gets defunded to point of cancelation or at best to point of being unable to acheave it origion goal.

Offline kraisee

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #14 on: 04/13/2008 10:00 PM »
Not solely because I'm a proponent of DIRECT, but mostly because I know what's going on behind closed doors, I voted yes.

Based on that, I am convinced that DIRECT has about twice the chance of being funded than Ares-V has.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline cb6785

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #15 on: 04/13/2008 10:16 PM »
Let's hope it'll be this way!
You know, if I’d had a seat you wouldn’t still see me in this thing. - Chuck Yeager

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Offline marsavian

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #16 on: 04/13/2008 10:22 PM »
Quote
kraisee - 13/4/2008  5:00 PM

Not solely because I'm a proponent of DIRECT, but mostly because I know what's going on behind closed doors, I voted yes.

Based on that, I am convinced that DIRECT has about twice the chance of being funded than Ares-V has.

Ross.

Hope so because the more you look at Ares I the more pointless you see it is. It's not going to reach its theoretical LOC figures anyway and the Delta IV Heavy will lift as much by the time it's ready. Soyuz has more multiple engines anyway but it's been proven safe enough. DIRECT will be real forward progress and give payload capability far beyond EELVs in only 3-4 years rather than 10 for Ares V which the Science parts of NASA could use increasing its flight rate and usefulness early on. You could even sell that last point to Obama if he gets in ;)

Offline kraisee

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #17 on: 04/13/2008 10:33 PM »
By the time Ares-I is ready (IOC 2015), the upgraded Delta-IV Heavy will already have been flying for three years, with greater performance than Ares-I will have.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline marsavian

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #18 on: 04/13/2008 10:41 PM »
Quote
kraisee - 13/4/2008  5:33 PM

By the time Ares-I is ready (IOC 2015), the upgraded Delta-IV Heavy will already have been flying for three years, with greater performance than Ares-I will have.

Ross.

There's really no excuse for NASA to build a LV that the commercial sector can beat already, wasteful in the extreme. Sorry to say this but this Emperor really has no clothes either and more and more are coming to realise this. The Saturn I/V idea was good for its day when there were no alternatives but we can do better now with what's available.

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #19 on: 04/13/2008 11:14 PM »
Quote
kraisee - 13/4/2008  4:00 PM
Based on that, I am convinced that DIRECT has about twice the chance of being funded than Ares-V has.

Ross.

2%?

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