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#20
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 20:04
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Trekkie07 - 4/2/2008 3:40 PM
Let's also keep in mind that STS-120's launch attempt held 60% odds of weather prohibiting launch and Discovery launch in good weather.
Well, it wasn't 60% if you were on NSF :>
NWS now changing their forecast completely, still not as bad as NWS but now saying 'mostly cloudy with 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms"
Nothing new for me to change on.
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#21
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 04 Feb, 2008 20:23
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rdale - 4/2/2008 4:04 PM
Trekkie07 - 4/2/2008 3:40 PM
Let's also keep in mind that STS-120's launch attempt held 60% odds of weather prohibiting launch and Discovery launch in good weather.
Well, it wasn't 60% if you were on NSF :>
True. Just making a point for everyone focusing on the 60% over what you're saying.
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#22
by
dember
on 04 Feb, 2008 21:05
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As far as i can remember on the second launch try for STS-116 there was 70% chance of no-go and Discovery launched on time.
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#23
by
rdale
on 05 Feb, 2008 09:52
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Just a reminder on how percentages work... If the same forecast were made 10 times, and we had a 60% no-go chance, that means we would launch on 4 of those 10 times. Only if there is a 100% chance of no-go is there no chance of a go.
In any case, not much has changed other than NWS continuing to go more pessimistic with their public forecast (40% chance of storms Thursday vs their 0% chance a few days ago) but nothing I'm seeing makes me change anything from my outlook posted yesterday.
Still a small threat for a Friday shower, but high pressure settles in over the weekend so no worry of precip.
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#24
by
zeke01
on 05 Feb, 2008 11:08
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Joffan - 4/2/2008 12:48 PM
With all due respect to the forecast models; I still have yet to see a forecast source (for temperate latitudes) that is reliable for localized weather more than about 48 hours out.
Can't pass that up. A teachable moment.
As I understand it for our friends up north, getting reliable (in the statistical sense) and accurate forecasts of sensible weather elements, like temperatures, winds, probability of precipitation, are not there yet from the Meteorological Service of Canada. (In fact Candian station UMOS is darned hard to find) :/
On the other hand, the United States Weather Service does post-processing of the numerical model outputs to produce forecasts of sensible weather that are quite reliable and accurate, particularly within 60 hours. Forecasters are able to add value to it and do a bit better. For instance, along Florida east coast, the 60-hr high temperature forecasts were often within 3 degrees of the observed last month.
So reliable weather guidance for the temperate regions is there for the United States, you have to look for it, and not very hard at that.
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#25
by
Joffan
on 05 Feb, 2008 18:57
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48 hours, 60 hours... well I'm glad we're making progress. It probably has been long enough that the "two days" I routinely mentally assign to the weather forecast reliability should become "two and a half days".
Except in the hands of an expert with local knowledge of course; thumbs up to rdale.
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#26
by
rdale
on 05 Feb, 2008 19:11
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I'm in Michigan, so I'm not very local to KSC or Zaragosa for that matter
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#27
by
rdale
on 05 Feb, 2008 22:02
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In reponse to Dember's post -- The thicker clouds start in Thursday morning. I could go either way on 40% or 60% - basically odds are 50/50...
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#28
by
wannamoonbase
on 06 Feb, 2008 01:03
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Rain is only one element. Winds and the TAL site weather factor in as well.
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#29
by
rdale
on 06 Feb, 2008 01:31
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wannamoonbase - 5/2/2008 9:03 PM
Winds and the TAL site weather factor in as well.
Not Thursday - winds and TAL sites are all fine... It's the rain and anvil clouds from any storms that we're worried about.
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#30
by
rdale
on 06 Feb, 2008 04:19
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I'll swing more towards the 40% no-go for tonight, new data showing a little less rain coverage during the afternoon as it appears the bulk of the front's impact may hold off until evening...
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#31
by
DaveS
on 06 Feb, 2008 13:32
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rdale - 6/2/2008 6:19 AM
I'll swing more towards the 40% no-go for tonight, new data showing a little less rain coverage during the afternoon as it appears the bulk of the front's impact may hold off until evening...
How about cloud cover? It's not just the showers we have to worry about. They can't launch unless the clouds cooperate aswell(ceiling 6000 ft)!
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#32
by
rdale
on 06 Feb, 2008 14:00
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Showers and anvils are clearly my biggest worry - there may be low clouds in the area but I think if it does get canceled it will be because of precip (local and/or distant.)
I'm available all day Thu/Fri so expect plenty of "nowcasts" as we call them.
If you've been reading the news about dozens of people killed by tornadoes yesterday - this is the same system. FORTUNATELY the front won't have any of the punch it has when it passes over the peninsula, so not worried at all about something similar.
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#33
by
rdale
on 06 Feb, 2008 14:42
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#34
by
Mike_1179
on 06 Feb, 2008 15:28
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I know people keep mentioning the STS-116 launch that has 70% probability of weather prohibiting launch 48 hrs out that dropped to 30% probability a day later. My question is more general - is South Florida weather that variable during the winter months, or was that an anomoly?
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#35
by
rdale
on 06 Feb, 2008 15:44
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It depends on what was happening... Was a cold front expected to move in, but then slowed down by 12 hours? That'd do it. Early morning where low clouds and fog might be a problem, but it burns off early? Big swing. Sea breeze expected to kick off thunderstorms, but they end up forming farther inland?
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#36
by
Chandonn
on 06 Feb, 2008 16:38
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The Front has definitely lagged up here in Kentucky! I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's forecast for Florida improves a bit.
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#37
by
Lawntonlookirs
on 06 Feb, 2008 16:49
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#38
by
Avron
on 06 Feb, 2008 21:10
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rdale - 6/2/2008 10:00 AM
Showers and anvils are clearly my biggest worry - there may be low clouds in the area but I think if it does get canceled it will be because of precip (local and/or distant.)
Rob are your models converging at this time? And is the front moving quicker than expected?
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#39
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 06 Feb, 2008 22:28
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Funny how quickly things change.... it was overcast all day here in Daytona, some really thick, dark clouds with rain moved in around 3pm and then suddenly, at 4:30pm clear blue skies! Tomorrow should be interesting!
