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STS-122: Launch Weather
by
rdale
on 02 Feb, 2008 15:38
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A weak cold front appears to be moving in late Wed / early Thu which I think might kick off a stray shower or storm... NWS has a 20% chance of a shower Wednesday night, but dry Thursday. I'm not quite that confident.
USAF also has just a 10% chance of a shower, so maybe I'm being too pessimistic
but overall looking good.
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#1
by
rdale
on 03 Feb, 2008 22:38
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NWS now has 20% chance of a shower, but I'm getting a little worried as a cold front appears to be hanging up across the FL peninsula Thu/Fri...
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#2
by
CTdave
on 04 Feb, 2008 02:58
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rdale
Ok, all eyes are on you for the best weather info. I'll be checking hourly up until our flight Wednesday afternoon.
GO ATLANTIS!!!
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#3
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 03:10
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Don't put too much pressure :> USAF still has only a 10% chance of a shower, 0% chance of lightning... I wish I could be that confident - but any time a strong front is in the area, I find it impossible to go that dry.
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#4
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 04 Feb, 2008 04:06
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rdale - 3/2/2008 11:10 PM
Don't put too much pressure :> USAF still has only a 10% chance of a shower, 0% chance of lightning... I wish I could be that confident - but any time a strong front is in the area, I find it impossible to go that dry.
I thought this was supposed to be a weak front? At least that's what I've heard from our local weather people here in central Florida. Has something changed?
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#5
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 05:21
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80's on Wednesday, maybe 70-ish on Thursday, so I guess it's not a MAJOR front but I don't think "weak" works well :>
Quick check before bed - and weather looking worse... More in the morning.
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#6
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 04 Feb, 2008 05:25
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rdale - 4/2/2008 1:21 AM
80's on Wednesday, maybe 70-ish on Thursday, so I guess it's not a MAJOR front but I don't think "weak" works well :>
Quick check before bed - and weather looking worse... More in the morning.
Ok. Thanks. It's been a hectic weekend. Just making sure I hadn't missed something.
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#7
by
psloss
on 04 Feb, 2008 13:28
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rdale - 4/2/2008 1:21 AM
80's on Wednesday, maybe 70-ish on Thursday, so I guess it's not a MAJOR front but I don't think "weak" works well :>
Quick check before bed - and weather looking worse... More in the morning.
It's still almost 72 hours out, but are we talking about marginal weather or is it trending to worse than marginal? 60% chance of a weather violation sounds marginal. I would guess that if the outlook is marginal when they get to the tanking MMT meeting, they'll proceed.
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#8
by
CTdave
on 04 Feb, 2008 14:59
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The NASA site now has a 60% chance of weather prohibiting the launch then clearing on Friday a.m. with only a 20% bad weather chance. At what % level & when would they cancel the attempt or will they continue with scheduled tanking & hope for a hole to open up at launch time?
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#9
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 15:01
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The computers have consistently gotten worse with time - I was more optimistic than the model output simply because USAF/NWS was going with a dry forecast so I was letting them "weigh in" just a bit (more than I should I suppose :> )
If there's ANY hope, it's that the computers can often tend a little too fast with cold fronts down there, and as of now it has precip just getting underway in the early afternoon with the 'bad weather' not until Thursday evening. If that trend can continue, we might be able to sneak getting off the ground, but if they are dead-on -- no launch Thursday.
They wouldn't postpone a launch early unless the odds of no-go are VERY VERY high.
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#10
by
psloss
on 04 Feb, 2008 15:07
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Thanks, Rob. Looks like we'll just have to wait and see where things are Wednesday night and Thursday...
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#11
by
Lawntonlookirs
on 04 Feb, 2008 15:08
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#12
by
psloss
on 04 Feb, 2008 15:22
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Lawntonlookirs - 4/2/2008 11:08 AM
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/3e/gfsx_pres_3e.html
The above link is for the GFS forecast for Thursday 12 Z The forecast models have been showing more rain than the earlier models.
Thanks for the link, but this is going to be a case of "hurry up and wait" for a couple of days. Assuming the countdown proceeds well, I'll be more keen on what the model looks like Wednesday evening.
All in all, I'd rather that they're dealing with marginal weather than ECO circuits.
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#13
by
Lawntonlookirs
on 04 Feb, 2008 15:38
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#14
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 15:46
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Your "Friday" link is Friday 00Z, which is 7pm Thursday, and it's from yesterday's computer run and not the current...
Friday looks fine, maybe a little low clouds, but Thursday still not too good off of the new output.
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#15
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 17:41
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NWS says Thursday will be great, just a few clouds and 20% chance of a raindrop. I'm not as optimistic as them, but I'm not as pessimistic as USAF.
Right now the American long-range model has no chance of a launch. Strong cold front moving down and stalling over the area Thursday, with numerous showers and thunderstorms (65% chance of rain, with a LOT of thick clouds.) The good news is - the American long range model is the worst model out there.
Foreign models have the front in the area, but split off the precip to the east and west of Florida. So they're dry. Bone dry.
So I'll play the "optimist" and stay with a 40% chance of no-go.
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#16
by
Joffan
on 04 Feb, 2008 17:48
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With all due respect to the forecast models; I still have yet to see a forecast source (for temperate latitudes) that is reliable for localized weather more than about 48 hours out.
Does the number of remaining tank cryo cycles play into the decision point for weather scrub prior to the cryo load?
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#17
by
rdale
on 04 Feb, 2008 17:58
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Joffan - 4/2/2008 1:48 PM
With all due respect to the forecast models
I'm a meteorologist - I'm not just regurgitating the models
It's easier to use them as a reference point in my posts since 'non-mets' can get the model themselves and see what I'm referring to, but there's much more than just "look at the pretty picture" when I'm making a forecast.
Does the number of remaining tank cryo cycles play into the decision point for weather scrub prior to the cryo load?
If it's still 60% at tanking time, I have no doubt they'll give it a try... We aren't close to needing to worry about cryo cycles.
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#18
by
DaveS
on 04 Feb, 2008 18:21
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rdale - 4/2/2008 7:58 PM
If it's still 60% at tanking time, I have no doubt they'll give it a try... We aren't close to needing to worry about cryo cycles.
Yes we are! The foam has already developed some serious questionable cracks in it! Thankfuully, they're mostly restricted around the aft part of the tank.
They had to repair some nasty cracks in the Y+ SRB PAL ramp on the ET during the ECO external feedthrough connector R&R.
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#19
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 04 Feb, 2008 19:40
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Let's also keep in mind that STS-120's launch attempt held 60% odds of weather prohibiting launch and Discovery launch in good weather. I also believe the second STS-121 attempt back on July 2, 2006 held 70% no-go weather odds and they tanked nonetheless.
As someone already said... we've just got to wait and see.
but overall looking good.