STS-122: Launch Weather Forecast

• #20 by rdale on 07 Dec, 2007 15:07
• USAF has 40% chance of weather violating launch tomorrow due to showers and low clouds, I'm saying only 10% probability from the potential of a cloud deck.
  
  Thursday's weather was perfect, at what would have been launch time there was a thin cirrus layer at 30000ft with winds out of the north at 4mph!
• #21 by rdale on 07 Dec, 2007 15:14
• ...and moments after I post, NWS sends theirs (were they waiting for me :> ) Similar concerns with USAF regarding showers around KSC, 2 out of 3 TAL's are fine, and the other US sites have a slight chance of a shower but odds pretty low they'd both be getting wet at the same time.
  
  
  NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
  SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8  
  LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER  
  HOUSTON TX              77058  
  1130 AM CST FRIDAY DECEMBER 07 2007  
     
  LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-122                                                
     
  EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      2043Z  
                  DATE:      12/08/07  
     
   RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES                    
   SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL          
   KSC  SCT050 SCT100 BKN200           7              12010P14    
        SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20NM CHC BKN050    
                                                     
   TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES    
     
   ZARAGOZA...SPAIN  
   ZZA  FEW030 SCT060 SCT250           7              28008P12              
        MDT TURBC SFC-100                                                      
     
   MORON...SPAIN  
   MRN  FEW250                         7              36003P05          
        WND LGT VRBL                        
     
   ISTRES...FRANCE  
   FMI  FEW025 BKN060 BKN250           7              29008P12          
        CHC RA WI 20 NM                          
                                             
   ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES  
   KSC  SCT050 SCT100 BKN200           7              12010P14    
        SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30NM                          
                                             
   PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/09/07 01Z TO 12/09/07 02Z                
   EDW  FEW020 SCT080 BKN250           7              26012P22    
        SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30NM                          
                                             
   FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:  
   KSC ... PRECIP  
   NOR ... PRECIP  
   EDW ... PRECIP/XWIND  
   ZZA ... NONE  
   MRN ... NONE  
   FMI ... PRECIP  
  
• #22 by rdale on 07 Dec, 2007 20:57
• USAF sticking with 40% chance of weather preventing launch, while NWS Melbourne is going with a 5% and I'll give that a token number as well, so I'm saying 10% chance of launch weather violation on Saturday.
• #23 by rdale on 08 Dec, 2007 02:21
• Sunday looking even better than Saturday, mostly sunny, light east breeze, and 10% violation of launch constraints.
  
  Or you can go with USAF and 30% chance of showers, crosswinds & ceilings :>
• #24 by rdale on 08 Dec, 2007 17:31
• USAF now down to a 20% launch violation for Sunday, given today's weather running near-perfect and tomorrow expected to be the same I'll throw in a token 10% instead...
• #25 by rdale on 09 Dec, 2007 02:52
• Wayne's ECO vs WX rule spells bad news if my forecast holds!
  
  5% chance of launch weather violating criteria, maybe a few extra clouds but I doubt it.
  
  Today's weather had a 40% chance of showers or clouds per USAF -- I don't like to brag (well, maybe :> ) but conditions were just a handful of clouds and a light breeze. Perfect...
• #26 by rdale on 10 Dec, 2007 15:31
• Sunday's launch time had a handful of small clouds at 2800ft, a few clouds at 5000ft, and a northeast wind at 8mph. Which explains the ECO problem :>