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STS-122: Launch Weather Forecast
by
rdale
on 02 Dec, 2007 17:19
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All looking good for an on-time launch (at least from the meteorological perspective!)
A weak cold front should move through KSC late Wednesday night. It has NO moisture to work with, so all I expect is increased clouds when it passes but clearing quickly back out by Thursday morning. Even if it slows down -- no problem. I don't expect that much cloudiness.
Launch time temps should be in the low-mid 70's.
Friday is still fine, but over the weekend another front moves through and this one looks to have a bit more juice to work with, so I'll go with a chance of showers and storms by that point.
- Rob
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#1
by
rdale
on 02 Dec, 2007 17:31
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#2
by
psloss
on 02 Dec, 2007 19:59
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rdale - 2/12/2007 1:19 PM
A weak cold front should move through KSC late Wednesday night. It has NO moisture to work with, so all I expect is increased clouds when it passes but clearing quickly back out by Thursday morning. Even if it slows down -- no problem. I don't expect that much cloudiness.
Any issue with crosswind limits on the other side of the front?
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#3
by
rdale
on 03 Dec, 2007 05:43
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No - winds 5 to 10 knots out of the northeast on Thursday...
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#4
by
psloss
on 03 Dec, 2007 12:45
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#5
by
rdale
on 03 Dec, 2007 13:39
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Only concern (and not much of one) from NWS forewcasters is a little cloudiness... TAL's looking great!
NOUS54 KWNJ 031352
OAVJSC
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
800 AM CST MONDAY DECEMBER 03 2007
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-122
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2132Z
DATE: 12/06/07
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT040 SCT100 SCT250 7 15008P12
SLGT CHC BKN040
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW080 FEW250 7 28007P12
MORON...SPAIN
MRN FEW250 7 05005P08
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW100 FEW250 7 33010P18
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SCT050 SCT250 7 24014P20
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/07/07 02Z TO 12/07/07 03Z
EDW SCT070 BKN100 OVC200 7 23012P22
CHC VIRGA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG
EDW ... PRECIP
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 04/1400Z
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
VANSPEYBROECK/GARNER/HOOD/ORAM
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#6
by
Blue Yonder
on 03 Dec, 2007 16:28
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Why always "7 miles visibility" on Shuttle Launch Weather Forecasts?
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#7
by
rdale
on 03 Dec, 2007 17:32
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That's the "don't care if it's any more than that" limit. There's an abbreviation used in forecasting called CAVOK - it means Ceiling And Visibility OK. To do so needs vis > 6.2 miles, so they use 7 and it basically means no concern.
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#8
by
rdale
on 04 Dec, 2007 14:11
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All looking great... 3 TAL's perfect, Northrup great for AOA, NWS & USAF forecasters still have a little worry about clouds on Thursday but I think any that would be thick enough to cause shuttle concern would be out in the morning. 95% go!
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#9
by
Rocket Guy
on 04 Dec, 2007 16:17
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It has been crystal clear here in Florida the past couple of days with virtually no haze. Should be a spectacular launch for everyone out to Titusville and beyond.
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#10
by
rdale
on 05 Dec, 2007 13:56
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0% chance of weather delaying the launch tomorrow, expect mostly sunny skies at KSC, no problems at TAL sites, and NOR perfect for AOA if needed...
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#11
by
Andrewwski
on 05 Dec, 2007 14:23
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Awesome!
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#12
by
TALsite
on 05 Dec, 2007 15:25
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As rdale said...
This TAL site is looking great!
ZARAGOZA - Weather
(From the web INM-Spain)
Expected Thursday 6 :
Rain probabilities: 0% on launch day.
Winds: 18 km/h NW till launch.
Temp: Max 16º C Min 7º C
Regards and GOOD LAUNCH from the this side of the Atlantic…
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#13
by
rdale
on 06 Dec, 2007 13:19
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I'll start a new thread once a new launch date is set, but there's really some very great weather through the next 7 days... I don't see any notable precip chances, MAYBE a shower on Saturday but nothing to be worried about.
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#14
by
psloss
on 06 Dec, 2007 13:24
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rdale - 6/12/2007 9:19 AM
I'll start a new thread once a new launch date is set, but there's really some very great weather through the next 7 days... I don't see any notable precip chances, MAYBE a shower on Saturday but nothing to be worried about.
All in all, I think I like it better when we're talking marginal weather and the hardware is good.
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#15
by
rdale
on 06 Dec, 2007 14:07
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If we try Friday, 2 out of 3 TAL sites still good, slight chance of showers on the west coast for AOA, KSC has slight chance of showers per NWS / USAF forecasters but I can't see any rain threat.
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#16
by
hobson911
on 06 Dec, 2007 14:19
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Probability of weather prohibiting launch Friday 20% Primary concerns low-cloud ceiling, showers
Probability of weather prohibiting launch Saturday 40% Low clouds ceiling and crosswind
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#17
by
rdale
on 06 Dec, 2007 14:22
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Those are USAF numbers - WAY higher than mine...
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#18
by
hobson911
on 06 Dec, 2007 14:23
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This was the latest I am sure that they will update this forecast sometime today (Thur) probably before the scrub press conference.
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#19
by
rdale
on 06 Dec, 2007 14:26
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They won't update the forecast that fast... It usually comes in the afternoon. All I am saying is that my probabilities for launch violation are MUCH lower than 20/40%.
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#20
by
rdale
on 07 Dec, 2007 15:07
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USAF has 40% chance of weather violating launch tomorrow due to showers and low clouds, I'm saying only 10% probability from the potential of a cloud deck.
Thursday's weather was perfect, at what would have been launch time there was a thin cirrus layer at 30000ft with winds out of the north at 4mph!
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#21
by
rdale
on 07 Dec, 2007 15:14
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...and moments after I post, NWS sends theirs (were they waiting for me :> ) Similar concerns with USAF regarding showers around KSC, 2 out of 3 TAL's are fine, and the other US sites have a slight chance of a shower but odds pretty low they'd both be getting wet at the same time.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
1130 AM CST FRIDAY DECEMBER 07 2007
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-122
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2043Z
DATE: 12/08/07
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT050 SCT100 BKN200 7 12010P14
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20NM CHC BKN050
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW030 SCT060 SCT250 7 28008P12
MDT TURBC SFC-100
MORON...SPAIN
MRN FEW250 7 36003P05
WND LGT VRBL
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW025 BKN060 BKN250 7 29008P12
CHC RA WI 20 NM
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT050 SCT100 BKN200 7 12010P14
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/09/07 01Z TO 12/09/07 02Z
EDW FEW020 SCT080 BKN250 7 26012P22
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... PRECIP
NOR ... PRECIP
EDW ... PRECIP/XWIND
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... PRECIP
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#22
by
rdale
on 07 Dec, 2007 20:57
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USAF sticking with 40% chance of weather preventing launch, while NWS Melbourne is going with a 5% and I'll give that a token number as well, so I'm saying 10% chance of launch weather violation on Saturday.
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#23
by
rdale
on 08 Dec, 2007 02:21
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Sunday looking even better than Saturday, mostly sunny, light east breeze, and 10% violation of launch constraints.
Or you can go with USAF and 30% chance of showers, crosswinds & ceilings :>
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#24
by
rdale
on 08 Dec, 2007 17:31
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USAF now down to a 20% launch violation for Sunday, given today's weather running near-perfect and tomorrow expected to be the same I'll throw in a token 10% instead...
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#25
by
rdale
on 09 Dec, 2007 02:52
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Wayne's ECO vs WX rule spells bad news if my forecast holds!
5% chance of launch weather violating criteria, maybe a few extra clouds but I doubt it.
Today's weather had a 40% chance of showers or clouds per USAF -- I don't like to brag (well, maybe :> ) but conditions were just a handful of clouds and a light breeze. Perfect...
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#26
by
rdale
on 10 Dec, 2007 15:31
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Sunday's launch time had a handful of small clouds at 2800ft, a few clouds at 5000ft, and a northeast wind at 8mph. Which explains the ECO problem :>
