Author Topic: STS-120: Landing Weather (Read 16720 times)

rdale · « **on:** 11/04/2007 06:02 pm »

A potent cold air mass will impact much of the eastern US over the next few days... The front should be in the FL area Wednesday, and I see the potential for a shower or two but not too pessimistic. Official forecast doesn't mention any chance at all, but I'm not that optimistic either :>

Other two sites perfect Wednesday.

A small chance of a shower will still exist in FL on Thursday as the front hangs up and gets ready to retreat, but still don't think it's that big of a concern, with west coast weather still perfect at NOR but maybe a sprinkle or two around Edwards....


NOUS54 KWNJ 041458  
OAVJSC  
  
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8  
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER  
HOUSTON TX               77058  
900 AM CST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 04 2007  
   
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-120  
   
EXPECTED LANDING DATE:      11/07/07  
                 TIME:      1802Z   
                 SITE:      KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL  
   
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - WEDNESDAY 11/07/07  
   
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL  
 KSC  FEW030                         7              34014P23           
                                                               
   
 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA         
 EDW  SCT120 BKN250                  7              06008P12    
                                                                                   
   
 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM  
 NOR  BKN250                         7              24004P08           
                                                                              
   
 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:  
 KSC ... NONE  
 EDW ... NONE  
 NOR ... NONE  
   
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - THURSDAY 11/08/07  
   
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL  
 KSC  FEW030                         7              03010P16           
      CHC BKN030; CHC SHRA WI 30NM                             
   
 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA         
 EDW  BKN120 BKN250                  7              21010P18    
      SLGT CHC SHRA (VIRGA) WI 30NM                                                
   
 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM  
 NOR  BKN250                         7              29004P11           
                                           
   
 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:  
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP  
 EDW ... PRECIP  
 NOR ... NONE

« **Reply #1 on:** 11/04/2007 07:17 pm »

What is the percent of KSC weather prohibiting landing on Wednesday?

rdale · « **Reply #2 on:** 11/04/2007 07:28 pm »

I'd say 25%, it appears NWS however is notably lower.

PAFB has a 10% chance of a shower.

rdale · « **Reply #3 on:** 11/05/2007 12:06 am »

Yes - they are landing on the descending cycle. Commander preferred a daylight landing since the mission became more stressful and extended, as it's easier to land in the day vs in the dark.

rdale · « **Reply #4 on:** 11/05/2007 03:26 am »

Update on the latest... The computers continue to keep the FL peninsula dry with showers over the Atlantic and the Gulf - I'm just not as confident in keeping KSC dry as the SMG forecasters are, plus I'm worried with winds. Still odds very good that weather will be good enough for a landing, but I'm not slam-dunking it quite yet!

svenge · « **Reply #5 on:** 11/05/2007 08:42 am »

Well, the way things have been going on this mission, I wouldn't rule out a NOR landing...

rdale · « **Reply #6 on:** 11/05/2007 12:27 pm »

NOR is the last resort, there's nothing in the forecast that would even remotely lean towards it...

dember · « **Reply #7 on:** 11/05/2007 06:37 pm »

Not very optimistic. Maybe on the second opportunity?

rdale · « **Reply #8 on:** 11/05/2007 06:46 pm »

PLEASE keep this confined to LANDING WEATHER discussions...

dember - SMG has all three sites great on Wednesday, I only have a small chance of clouds / a shower, so "not very optimistic" is probably not a valid summary :>

My concern level is dropping for a shower, I do forsee more clouds in there than the latest NWS forecast but still not problematic.

dember · « **Reply #9 on:** 11/05/2007 07:23 pm »

Ok. Thanks.

orion61 · « **Reply #10 on:** 11/05/2007 08:04 pm »

psloss · « **Reply #11 on:** 11/05/2007 10:06 pm »

Recent CONUS forecast from SMG...pretty much the same as the forecast Rob posted from yesterday or the one from this morning...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg1.html

rdale · « **Reply #12 on:** 11/06/2007 04:45 am »

New data still looking good overall... The cold front will lose most of its punch as it crossed FL, so a few extra clouds around - and I'm still not going completely 0% chance of rain as it is front - but I'll drop my concern level down a bit.

Landing will be from the south as north winds will run 10-15mph.

Avron · « **Reply #13 on:** 11/07/2007 03:35 am »

Quote

rdale - 6/11/2007 12:45 AM

New data still looking good overall... The cold front will lose most of its punch as it crossed FL, so a few extra clouds around - and I'm still not going completely 0% chance of rain as it is front - but I'll drop my concern level down a bit.

Landing will be from the south as north winds will run 10-15mph.

Any difference from the models for the first and second attempts... i.e. are we expecting the clouds to clear as the day goes on?

DaveS · « **Reply #14 on:** 11/07/2007 11:49 am »

Latest SMG forecast:

rdale · « **Reply #15 on:** 11/07/2007 12:13 pm »

Cold front moving through FL now, there are some patches of thicker clouds so odds on violation not 0% but still fairly low...

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #16 on:** 11/07/2007 01:21 pm »

Winters over the comm:

Band of stratocumulus/lower clouds

Not thick, but low enough to be a ceiling constraint

4/8ths are the current clouds
5/8ths is considered a ceiling.
Ceiling for landing is
8000k

40 mi away back edge
15 mi away front edge

Clouds are from 4000-6000feet
Peak winds 16kts.

Correction 48 is the back end of the stratocumulus...not 40.

johng · « **Reply #17 on:** 11/07/2007 01:24 pm »

I live north of the Cape near Daytona Beach and work in LC-39. There was a fairly low layer of thin clouds when I left this morning. At the Cape it is crystal clear. The low layer is not near the Cape and looks like it is breaking up/ moving out to sea.

rdale · « **Reply #18 on:** 11/07/2007 01:58 pm »

Band of clouds now approaching KSC from the northwest - much less coverage than before and looking good to continue trending downward. Clearly the bulk of the clouds are over water and moving away...

rdale · « **Reply #19 on:** 11/07/2007 02:09 pm »

10am ob - few clouds at 5000ft, few at 24000ft, winds from the northwest at 10kts.

psloss · « **Reply #20 on:** 11/07/2007 02:54 pm »

Latest forecast called up to the crew has slight winds change, downward: 350 at 12 knots peaking to 20. The clouds at 5k may be just getting into the area as the vehicle gets there, but they were still observed and forecast go...

rdale · « **Reply #21 on:** 11/07/2007 03:14 pm »

Interesting surge of clouds coming onshore north of DAB and moving south... Not sure what they're doing there, but it would not be good to have them continue south...

psloss · « **Reply #22 on:** 11/07/2007 03:24 pm »

Quote

rdale - 7/11/2007 11:14 AM

Interesting surge of clouds coming onshore north of DAB and moving south... Not sure what they're doing there, but it would not be good to have them continue south...

Yeah, saw those on the loops that I'm sure SMG is looking at...looks like those have moved over Daytona, what is the observation there -- are they calling it scattered or broken at 5k?

rdale · « **Reply #23 on:** 11/07/2007 03:28 pm »

They are quite over DAB yet, they report few 3000 and scattered 4700 to their northwest. They are over SGJ (north of DAB) and reporting broken at 3500. That would not be good.

Winds at SGJ went from northwest 10-13kts to northeast at 21kts gusting to 27. Definite no-go, and I'm trying to figure out why it's there and whether it'll keep coming...

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #24 on:** 11/07/2007 03:29 pm »

Estimate now - info radioed up to STA -Rain will be 10mi north of slf at landing time
Sta confirming to make sure it won't be violation

rdale · « **Reply #25 on:** 11/07/2007 03:34 pm »

Interesting - I don't see any rain threat. Looks like the line of clouds is thickest at its leading edge then thins out behind. Clouds should be entering the area maybe in an hour?

rdale · « **Reply #26 on:** 11/07/2007 03:38 pm »

GOES satellite in rapid-scan mode now so updates every 5 minutes instead of every 15. Leading edge just passing over Daytona Beach airport.

Kel · « **Reply #27 on:** 11/07/2007 03:40 pm »

Do the clouds coming in look like a quick pass through, or do you think they will stick around for both orbits (perhaps too early to tell)?

rdale · « **Reply #28 on:** 11/07/2007 03:42 pm »

The thickest parts will pass through, but there are still a lot of clouds over the Atlantic and at least visually look like they'd be too thick (but no observing sites to be certain.)

rdale · « **Reply #29 on:** 11/07/2007 03:48 pm »

Don't see any threat of rain in the area, so STA should stay go, but clouds continue their trek towards KSC.

rdale · « **Reply #30 on:** 11/07/2007 03:52 pm »

With the "go" I'll use this time to run home for lunch - back around 1210pm ET.

psloss · « **Reply #31 on:** 11/07/2007 03:52 pm »

Thanks, Rob.

rdale · « **Reply #32 on:** 11/07/2007 04:14 pm »

I'm back. Winds are stronger but within limits at KSC - NW 12G18 kts with a few clouds at 4700ft. DAB reporting a broken ceiling at 3200ft with winds NE 14G22 knots.

rdale · « **Reply #33 on:** 11/07/2007 04:19 pm »

Winds are more of a concern for me than clouds - behind the leading edge the clouds do thin, but winds are reported 15-30 mph out of the NE (crosswind) north of KSC.

rdale · « **Reply #34 on:** 11/07/2007 04:42 pm »

Clouds moving into KSC's view - few at 3500, 4700 and 13000ft. Winds at the landing point NW at 9G19kts, center of runway NW 13G19kts.

rdale · « **Reply #35 on:** 11/07/2007 05:10 pm »

Cut it close :> Headwinds on landing were 24kts, limit is 25kts. Winds just north of KSC are NE 19G29kts with a 3000ft ceiling!

psloss · « **Reply #36 on:** 11/07/2007 05:15 pm »

Quote

rdale - 7/11/2007 1:10 PM

Cut it close :> Headwinds on landing were 24kts, limit is 25kts. Winds just north of KSC are NE 19G29kts with a 3000ft ceiling!

Watching the landing live, it sure looked like they were working the headwinds.