STS-120: Landing Weather

[rdale]

A potent cold air mass will impact much of the eastern US over the next few days... The front should be in the FL area Wednesday, and I see the potential for a shower or two but not too pessimistic. Official forecast doesn't mention any chance at all, but I'm not that optimistic either :>

Other two sites perfect Wednesday.

A small chance of a shower will still exist in FL on Thursday as the front hangs up and gets ready to retreat, but still don't think it's that big of a concern, with west coast weather still perfect at NOR but maybe a sprinkle or two around Edwards....


NOUS54 KWNJ 041458  
OAVJSC  
 
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8  
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER  
HOUSTON TX               77058  
900 AM CST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 04 2007  
   
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-120  
   
EXPECTED LANDING DATE:      11/07/07  
                 TIME:      1802Z  
                 SITE:      KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL  
   
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - WEDNESDAY 11/07/07  
   
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL  
 KSC  FEW030                         7              34014P23          
                                                               
   
 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA        
 EDW  SCT120 BKN250                  7              06008P12    
                                                                                   
   
 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM  
 NOR  BKN250                         7              24004P08          
                                                                             
   
 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:  
 KSC ... NONE  
 EDW ... NONE  
 NOR ... NONE  
   
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - THURSDAY 11/08/07  
   
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL  
 KSC  FEW030                         7              03010P16          
      CHC BKN030; CHC SHRA WI 30NM                            
   
 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA        
 EDW  BKN120 BKN250                  7              21010P18    
      SLGT CHC SHRA (VIRGA) WI 30NM                                                
   
 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM  
 NOR  BKN250                         7              29004P11          
                                           
   
 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:  
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP  
 EDW ... PRECIP  
 NOR ... NONE


What is the percent of KSC weather prohibiting landing on Wednesday?

[rdale]

I'd say 25%, it appears NWS however is notably lower.

PAFB has a 10% chance of a shower.

[rdale]

Yes - they are landing on the descending cycle. Commander preferred a daylight landing since the mission became more stressful and extended, as it's easier to land in the day vs in the dark.

[rdale]

Update on the latest... The computers continue to keep the FL peninsula dry with showers over the Atlantic and the Gulf - I'm just not as confident in keeping KSC dry as the SMG forecasters are, plus I'm worried with winds. Still odds very good that weather will be good enough for a landing, but I'm not slam-dunking it quite yet!

[svenge]

Well, the way things have been going on this mission, I wouldn't rule out a NOR landing...

[rdale]

NOR is the last resort, there's nothing in the forecast that would even remotely lean towards it...

[dember]

Not very optimistic. Maybe on the second opportunity?

[rdale]

PLEASE keep this confined to LANDING WEATHER discussions...

dember - SMG has all three sites great on Wednesday, I only have a small chance of clouds / a shower, so "not very optimistic" is probably not a valid summary :>

My concern level is dropping for a shower, I do forsee more clouds in there than the latest NWS forecast but still not problematic.

[dember]

Ok. Thanks.

[orion61]

[psloss]

Recent CONUS forecast from SMG...pretty much the same as the forecast Rob posted from yesterday or the one from this morning...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg1.html

[rdale]

New data still looking good overall... The cold front will lose most of its punch as it crossed FL, so a few extra clouds around - and I'm still not going completely 0% chance of rain as it is front - but I'll drop my concern level down a bit.

Landing will be from the south as north winds will run 10-15mph.

[Avron]

rdale - 6/11/2007  12:45 AM

New data still looking good overall... The cold front will lose most of its punch as it crossed FL, so a few extra clouds around - and I'm still not going completely 0% chance of rain as it is front - but I'll drop my concern level down a bit.

Landing will be from the south as north winds will run 10-15mph.

Any difference from the models for the first and second attempts... i.e. are we expecting the clouds to clear as the day goes on?

[DaveS]

Latest SMG forecast:

[rdale]

Cold front moving through FL now, there are some patches of thicker clouds so odds on violation not 0% but still fairly low...

[Chris Bergin]

Winters over the comm:

Band of stratocumulus/lower clouds

Not thick, but low enough to be a ceiling constraint

4/8ths are the current clouds
5/8ths is considered a ceiling.
Ceiling for landing is
8000k

40 mi away back edge
15 mi away front edge

Clouds are from 4000-6000feet
Peak winds 16kts.

Correction 48 is the back end of the stratocumulus...not 40.

[johng]

I live north of the Cape near Daytona Beach and work in LC-39. There was a fairly low layer of thin clouds when I left this morning. At the Cape it is crystal clear. The low layer is not near the Cape and looks like it is breaking up/ moving out to sea.

[rdale]

Band of clouds now approaching KSC from the northwest - much less coverage than before and looking good to continue trending downward. Clearly the bulk of the clouds are over water and moving away...

[rdale]

10am ob - few clouds at 5000ft, few at 24000ft, winds from the northwest at 10kts.