STS-120: Launch Weather Forecast

[rdale]

Reviewing things this afternoon and I hate to say this but I'm pretty optimistic! With the front still well to the west tomorrow, I don't think weather will be much different than today's and they've got plenty of sunshine overhead... 80% go for me.

[Avron]

rdale - 22/10/2007  6:32 PM

Reviewing things this afternoon and I hate to say this but I'm pretty optimistic! With the front still well to the west tomorrow, I don't think weather will be much different than today's and they've got plenty of sunshine overhead... 80% go for me.

Have to move Hockey.. looks like we have a launch coming up tomorrow..

[KSC Engineer]

Weather looks pretty good to me.  I am at Cape Canaveral now and there are lots of stars out tonight.

What are the TAL observations of weather for the launch tomorrow?

[TJL]

I believe one site is go, the other 2 no go for Tuesday...and Wednesday and Thursday all 3 are no go.

[rdale]

Newest SMG forecast has Moron still very good tomorrow, and they still say rain showers likely within 20 miles and possibility of ceiling restrictions too...

But my 00Z update still is pretty good.

[Ankle-bone12]

rdale - 22/10/2007  1:36 PM

Please no posting of The Weather Channel or any other automated output - that's from a computer only, with no meteorologists looking at the data. It's useless when trying to predict showers with a computer by itself.

What website would you reccomend for this? Curious.

[rdale]

For what? The forecast? There are links all over this thread to the USAF & NWS forecasts... I'll be posting live stuff in the morning here.

[Davejfb]

[iphitus]

Ankle-bone12 - 23/10/2007  1:38 PM

rdale - 22/10/2007  1:36 PM

Please no posting of The Weather Channel or any other automated output - that's from a computer only, with no meteorologists looking at the data. It's useless when trying to predict showers with a computer by itself.

What website would you reccomend for this? Curious.

There's a dedicated KSC weather feed linked off here on the top left which is where the above shot comes from:
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/countdown/video/

[psloss]

Latest SMG forecast from about two hours ago...

000
NOUS54 KWNJ 230927
OAVJSC

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
430 AM CDT TUESDAY OCTOBER 23 2007

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-120

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      1538Z
                DATE:      10/23/07

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030 SCT250                  7              17008P13
      SHRA WI 20NM CHC BKN030

 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT040 BKN110 OVC180           7              32018P28
      MDT TURB 300-400

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  SCT040 SCT120 SCT200           7              24011P15


 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  FEW020 SCT180                  7              33014P21
      MDT TURB BLO 100

 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 NOR  SKC                            7              02012P20


 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 10/23/07 20Z TO 10/23/07 21Z
 EDW  SKC                            7              06015P25


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP
 NOR ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 ZZA ... HWIND
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 23/1800S

 KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
       ICAO ID IS KTTS
 NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
       ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
 EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
       ICAO ID IS KEDW
 ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEZG
 MRN...MORON SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEMO
 FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
       ICAO ID IS LFMI

LAFOSSE, ORAM, EARLY, VAN SPEY

[rdale]

Still "cautiously" optimistic -- much more sun than clouds this morning over the FL region and nothing appearing to be on the horizon. There are some pop-up small showers here and there, those of course will be realtime calls as they don't last long before dying and new ones reform. So far all have been offshore recently. Remember that they can extend the launch window by a few minutes instantly (i.e. no need for discussion) with a FD4 docking, and that may come in handy with these showers.

If they don't launch today - come back from Florida for a week :>

[rdale]

Getting some slightly stronger showers offshore but still not showing any sign of growing in size... Still nothing "organized" going on, just getting some cumulus clouds forming up...

[rdale]

Good news is that those showers continue to fall apart as they get closer to the pad, I'm not sure if they have to be completely dry within the 20nm (which is not likely) or just enough for the STA to avoid showers (which is.)

[psloss]

rdale - 23/10/2007  10:45 AM

Good news is that those showers continue to fall apart as they get closer to the pad, I'm not sure if they have to be completely dry within the 20nm (which is not likely) or just enough for the STA to avoid showers (which is.)

Is this going to be an RTLS forecast issue only, Rob?

[rdale]

Yes, I don't see any constraints to launch.

[rdale]

No change - launch weather fine but light rain showers offshore will continue to violate the 20nm rule. But they are very light and very spotty.

[psloss]

rdale - 23/10/2007  11:04 AM

No change - launch weather fine but light rain showers offshore will continue to violate the 20nm rule. But they are very light and very spotty.

Yeah, I've been listening to hear if Houston Flight giving any clues about their current stance on observed and forecast weather...I guess we'll know here in the NTD poll coming up...

[rdale]

If they aren't running another package over NTD :>

Slightly better looking radar but still likely to have some raindrops on the east side of the 20NM circle.

[rdale]

2 of 3 TAL sites go for sure, Zaragoza a little breezy but just within limits...