Author Topic: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6  (Read 523987 times)

Offline SPITexas

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #280 on: 11/05/2017 04:14 am »
All this BFR talk in this thread is fine but I just wish you all weren't going around and around in circles on it.

At least the latest flareup of jawboning about acoustic energy died down after only a day.  See you in a month.

Got a good chuckle at the new dude who called out Dave G, one of the veteran contributors of actual facts to this thread.

Nomadd, when do you get back? :)

Who cares, got a good laugh outta you too really ridiculous right?. Because of my very old opinion that may be true. Calm down.  Never called out Dave G he’s a good guy, it’s called agree to disagree.

Nomadd comes back when he wants too, I think he said late November or whenever so just wait!!!! We’ll find out more soon.   
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 04:29 am by SPITexas »

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #281 on: 11/05/2017 06:07 am »
All this BFR talk in this thread is fine but I just wish you all weren't going around and around in circles on it.

At least the latest flareup of jawboning about acoustic energy died down after only a day.  See you in a month.

Got a good chuckle at the new dude who called out Dave G, one of the veteran contributors of actual facts to this thread.

Nomadd, when do you get back? :)
Back in the States in a few days. Maybe two weeks till I meander back home.
 One note on sound levels... energy, pressure and perceived volume are all different. "Twice as loud" is a perception and generally defined as a 10db increase in sound level (pressure), which means ten times the power for twice the perceived volume in stereos or rockets. An easy way to figure levels with little math is 3db increase for twice the power and 6db decrease for twice the distance. It's approximate, but close. (Sloppy, I know, but good enough for FAA and OSHA reference)
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 07:08 am by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #282 on: 11/05/2017 11:09 am »
But they absolutely do need it if they will launch commercial comsats AND launch 4000+ Starlink sats.

Not necessarily.

SpaceX wants to launch 4,425 Starlink satellites by the end of 2024, but each satellite is really small, so assuming 32 sats per launch, that's around 2 Falcon 9 launches per month.
...

So long as you consider 386kg (850lbs) and as 'big as a refrigerator' really small... 

With existing F9 fairing, will most likely be volume limited to 16-20 sats per launch -- larger fairing will help, but not likely to get to 32 per launch.  EM talked about 50-ish launches per year -- weekly -- for the LEO (4,425 sat) constellation; 7,500 VLEO sats almost triples the launch demand.

Not sure how Boca Chica fits into the picture, but flying this^ much out of the Cape plus Vandenberg will be difficult and expensive.
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 11:12 am by AncientU »
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Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #283 on: 11/05/2017 12:03 pm »
But they absolutely do need it if they will launch commercial comsats AND launch 4000+ Starlink sats.

Not necessarily.

SpaceX wants to launch 4,425 Starlink satellites by the end of 2024, but each satellite is really small, so assuming 32 sats per launch, that's around 2 Falcon 9 launches per month.
...

So long as you consider 386kg (850lbs) and as 'big as a refrigerator' really small... 

With existing F9 fairing, will most likely be volume limited to 16-20 sats per launch -- larger fairing will help, but not likely to get to 32 per launch.  EM talked about 50-ish launches per year -- weekly -- for the LEO (4,425 sat) constellation; 7,500 VLEO sats almost triples the launch demand.

Not sure how Boca Chica fits into the picture, but flying this^ much out of the Cape plus Vandenberg will be difficult and expensive.

Whatever the final numbers, as I said, the BFR satellite delivery spacecraft will hold way more Starlink satellites, and it will be fully reusable, which means launch costs will be lower. So it's possible SpaceX may want to transition Starlink away from Falcon 9 sooner than later, and go straight to BFR at Boca Chica.

And by the way, given the backlash I've gotten for pointing out an obvious possibility, I have to ask:
Why is there so much emotional attachment to Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy?
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 12:14 pm by Dave G »

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #284 on: 11/05/2017 12:06 pm »
They are rockets.

(not PowerPoints)
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 12:07 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline Jcc

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #285 on: 11/05/2017 12:23 pm »
But they absolutely do need it if they will launch commercial comsats AND launch 4000+ Starlink sats.

Not necessarily.

SpaceX wants to launch 4,425 Starlink satellites by the end of 2024, but each satellite is really small, so assuming 32 sats per launch, that's around 2 Falcon 9 launches per month.
...

So long as you consider 386kg (850lbs) and as 'big as a refrigerator' really small... 

With existing F9 fairing, will most likely be volume limited to 16-20 sats per launch -- larger fairing will help, but not likely to get to 32 per launch.  EM talked about 50-ish launches per year -- weekly -- for the LEO (4,425 sat) constellation; 7,500 VLEO sats almost triples the launch demand.

Not sure how Boca Chica fits into the picture, but flying this^ much out of the Cape plus Vandenberg will be difficult and expensive.

Whatever the final numbers, as I said, the BFR satellite delivery spacecraft will hold way more Starlink satellites, and it will be fully reusable, which means launch costs will be lower. So it's possible SpaceX may want to transition Starlink away from Falcon 9 sooner than later, and go straight to BFR at Boca Chica.

And by the way, given the backlash I've gotten for pointing out an obvious possibility, I have to ask:
Why is there so much emotional attachment to Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy?

Not emotional attachment, but a question of timing, and risk of delays to BFR. They need to get Starlink operational within the deadlines imposed by spectrum licensing. Also, they will want to get a leg up on OneWeb sooner rather than later to gain market share and revenue. Also, they don't want to reduce commercial and government launches in the mean time, rather, increase them because that provides revenue immediately.

Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #286 on: 11/05/2017 12:54 pm »
They are rockets.

(not PowerPoints)
They are rockets that SpaceX plans to scrap, like Falcon 1.

They need to get Starlink operational within the deadlines imposed by spectrum licensing.

Yes, this makes sense, but what's the minimum number of satellites they would need to meet these deadlines?

Could they risk the remainder on a lower cost launcher that's still in development?

Elon isn't risk averse.  Quite the opposite.

Online nacnud

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #287 on: 11/05/2017 01:07 pm »
1) What orbits do Starlink Sats need to get to? - I would guess high inclination orbits.
2) Can they get to them from BC? - No

So.... ?

Online guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #288 on: 11/05/2017 01:10 pm »
To fulfill licensing requirements they need to launch half of their constellation by end of 2023, so just over 2000, not over 4000. They will likely want more, but don't have to.

But it seems we are getting slightly OT for the Texas launch site thread.

Online guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #289 on: 11/05/2017 01:11 pm »
Elon isn't risk averse.  Quite the opposite.

But he is not suicidal

Online cscott

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #290 on: 11/05/2017 01:14 pm »

Yes, this makes sense, but what's the minimum number of satellites they would need to meet these deadlines?

There's a thread for Starlink discussion:

NOTE the FCC 6 year requirement on how many sats have to be deployed in that 6 year period is still undefined. The 800 sat value would be the smallest number probably acceptable with full deployment 4,425 sats the actual requirement without a waiver.

It is defined, 50% in six years and full deployment in 9 years
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 01:14 pm by cscott »

Offline Jcc

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #291 on: 11/05/2017 01:25 pm »
1) What orbits do Starlink Sats need to get to? - I would guess high inclination orbits.
2) Can they get to them from BC? - No

So.... ?

So, by launching GTO sats from BC that otherwise would need to launch from Cape Canaveral/KSC, that frees up launch slots at  Cape Canaveral/KSC, which can serve a wider range of azimuths.

Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #292 on: 11/05/2017 01:38 pm »
To fulfill licensing requirements they need to launch half of their constellation by end of 2023, so just over 2000, not over 4000. They will likely want more, but don't have to.

But it seems we are getting slightly OT for the Texas launch site thread.

The question at hand is: How will Starlink affect plans for the Texas launch site?

Specifically, will the Starlink launch rate force them to build an F9/FH pad at Boca Chica, or is it possible they might bypass F9/FH and go straight to a BFR pad there?

By the way, they started discussing this second possibility over on reddit first, so don't shoot the messenger.

Anyway, SpaceX intends to launch BFR to Mars in 2022.  Assuming they'll want several BFR LEO launches before then, that would start in 2021.  What better test payload than Starlink satellites?

So in addition to F9/FH launches from their existing 3 pads, that would give them 3 years worth of BFR launches to build out Starlink. Also remember that BFR launch costs will be significantly lower than Falcon 9.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #293 on: 11/05/2017 02:00 pm »
1) What orbits do Starlink Sats need to get to? - I would guess high inclination orbits.
2) Can they get to them from BC? - No
Yes.

Doglegs late in the ascent (needed to thread the needle, you can't dogleg early) impose ruinous penalties but if you're volume limited anyway....

NOT saying they will do this but it is possible. As discussed many times before.
« Last Edit: 11/05/2017 02:00 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #294 on: 11/05/2017 02:05 pm »
1) What orbits do Starlink Sats need to get to? - I would guess high inclination orbits.
2) Can they get to them from BC? - No
Yes.

Doglegs late in the ascent (needed to thread the needle, you can't dogleg early) impose ruinous penalties but if you're volume limited anyway....

NOT saying they will do this but it is possible. As discussed many times before.

By the way, nearly all of the property SpaceX purchased at Boca Chica is under the name "Dogleg Park LLC".

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #295 on: 11/05/2017 02:15 pm »
By the way, nearly all of the property SpaceX purchased at Boca Chica is under the name "Dogleg Park LLC".
That ain't about urination... Hidden in plain sight. (I never forgot this but some later readers might have)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #296 on: 11/05/2017 02:46 pm »
I should point out that lifting bodies like the BFS can reduce the delta-V needed for inclination changes by quite a large amount, nearly halving the delta-V required:

http://ccar.colorado.edu/asen5050/projects/projects_2012/phillips/
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Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #297 on: 11/05/2017 03:10 pm »
Just as nature abhors a vacuum, wild speculation gravitates towards an information vacuum... as proven time and time again on this site.

Also, people should really cease interpreting the Word of Elon like it’s some sort of holy scripture.

BC will happen - in what shape that  “happening” takes remains to be seen. That’s what makes the future so exciting. I think the best thing for this thread is for everyone to quit filling speculation noise, sit back, wait for our resident wanderlust to drift back in, and see what happens.

I for one long for the days where a new post on this thread was actually worth reading...
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #298 on: 11/05/2017 03:49 pm »
I think the best thing for this thread is for everyone to quit filling speculation noise, sit back, wait for our resident wanderlust to drift back in...
SPITexas has been doing a great job of keeping us informed while Nomadd is away, with lots of pictures.

But there's not much happening. 

The only new development - they started clearing the grass just to the East of the antenna dishes.  No one knows why.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: SpaceX Texas launch site Discussion and Updates - Thread 6
« Reply #299 on: 11/05/2017 05:09 pm »
BTW - kudos to you Dave G, and to SPITexas and BocaChicaGirl (where are you these days BCG?) for your contribution to this thread. It’s appreciated.
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

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