Author Topic: SpaceX customers' views on reuse  (Read 182759 times)

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #600 on: 11/16/2018 02:26 pm »
Not sure if this has been noted, but two boosters (1046/7) have completed double GTO flights.  Customers don't seem to be worried about reusing these stages after high energy launches/recoveries.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #601 on: 11/17/2018 02:19 am »
Not sure if this has been noted, but two boosters (1046/7) have completed double GTO flights.  Customers don't seem to be worried about reusing these stages after high energy launches/recoveries.

True and of course 1046 has had 2 GTO flights and about to be re-used again. I imagine that as this point - after so many booster reuses - most customers just trust that SpaceX know what they're doing. Should be plenty of data on the comparative condition of boosters after LEO and GTO flights etc.

Online marsbase

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #602 on: 11/19/2018 03:20 pm »
NASA Associate Administraor Steve Jurczyk says the reusability of BFR and New Glenn will lead to "retirement" of the SLS.  Of course, it may retire before it ever launches.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-sls-replacement-spacex-bfr-blue-origin-new-glenn-2018-11

Offline Tulse

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #603 on: 11/19/2018 05:58 pm »
I'm shocked that anyone official would admit to this, as it really points out the whole futility of the project.

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #604 on: 11/20/2018 06:59 am »
I'm shocked that anyone official would admit to this, as it really points out the whole futility of the project.
Not an SLS thread this is, so let's not go there. There is plenty of SLS threads to discuss any concerns related to SLS.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #605 on: 12/16/2018 07:14 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Offline JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #606 on: 12/16/2018 09:17 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #607 on: 12/18/2018 03:44 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".
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Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #608 on: 12/19/2018 06:43 am »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".

It is more like this: USAF EELV folks are scared to death by Falcon 9. You see, they weren't there when it was designed, built and tested. Unlike the previous EELV vehicles, such as Delta IV and Atlas V.

So they don't immediately believe SpaceX's claims about the reliability and performance of Falcon 9.

The only way to convince the EELV folks is to build their confidence thru multiple successful launches and demonstrated performance.

Offline JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #609 on: 12/19/2018 01:20 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".

It is more like this: USAF EELV folks are scared to death by Falcon 9. You see, they weren't there when it was designed, built and tested. Unlike the previous EELV vehicles, such as Delta IV and Atlas V.

So they don't immediately believe SpaceX's claims about the reliability and performance of Falcon 9.

The only way to convince the EELV folks is to build their confidence thru multiple successful launches and demonstrated performance.

Which they already have I pressume. There have been 62 F9 launches, every single one instrucmented up the hilt. How much more information do they actually need? What was missing from those 62 flights that requires even more testing and information?

Offline docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #610 on: 12/19/2018 02:09 pm »
>
What was missing from those 62 flights that requires even more testing and information?

Stickers saying "Made in..."  Alabama, Colorado or Utah.

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #611 on: 12/19/2018 05:27 pm »
It is more like this: USAF EELV folks are scared to death by Falcon 9. You see, they weren't there when it was designed, built and tested. Unlike the previous EELV vehicles, such as Delta IV and Atlas V.

So they don't immediately believe SpaceX's claims about the reliability and performance of Falcon 9.

The only way to convince the EELV folks is to build their confidence thru multiple successful launches and demonstrated performance.

Which they already have I pressume. There have been 62 F9 launches, every single one instrucmented up the hilt. How much more information do they actually need? What was missing from those 62 flights that requires even more testing and information?

EELV boys-and-girls independently monitoring the flight, including all the prepping that went into it. Not just getting all the data from SpaceX after the fact, but being in the factory and on-console, as an embedded team, during the entire thing.
That might seem like just a small difference but it is big issue for USAF's EELV folks.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2018 05:29 pm by woods170 »

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #612 on: 12/19/2018 06:32 pm »
EELV boys-and-girls independently monitoring the flight, including all the prepping that went into it. Not just getting all the data from SpaceX after the fact, but being in the factory and on-console, as an embedded team, during the entire thing.
That might seem like just a small difference but it is big issue for USAF's EELV folks.

Sounds like the NASA folks should ask the EELV folks about SpaceX's safety culture for an outside opinion.

Offline meberbs

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #613 on: 12/21/2018 05:33 am »
Meanwhile news about STP-2 from what is clearly a parallel reality:

https://spacenews.com/nasa-looking-to-launch-delayed-space-science-missions-in-early-2019/
Quote
Fox said the mission will launch on the second of two back-to-back launches of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket, after the launch of the Arabsat-6A spacecraft. “It will launch after the successful launch of Arabsat, which is currently manifested for March,” she said.

The two launches, she said, will use the same set of first stage booster cores. “They will recover and reuse the boosters,” she said, with the second launch taking place about a month after the first. “So we’re kind of watching what happens with that first launch.”

It isn't really that strange given the difference in mission intent and payload value compared to GPS-III, but I can't say I expected the Air Force to accept it for this flight. (Note, the quoted comments are from someone on the NASA side, Air Force and SpaceX have not confirmed.)

Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #614 on: 12/23/2018 11:23 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".

The largest amount of uncertainty probably comes from SpaceX's lack of high six-figure consultant job openings for retiring Air Force generals...
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #615 on: 02/19/2019 09:45 am »
I've seen a couple of suggestions (such as below) that the booster for the Nusantara Satu launch this week is a flight proven one:

Video of the Static Fire!

Granted that this is a long distance, low resolution shot, but that static fire looked longer than normal.  I count nine seconds of engines burning, before tail off.  Even if you allow for the TEA/TEB start, it seems long.

Which is standard procedure for reused boosters.

In the absence of any press release/official tweet etc I guess we'll have to wait for a clear shot of the booster.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #616 on: 02/19/2019 11:06 am »
By a process of elimination Eric Ralph is saying it'll be the 3rd flight of a booster, probably B1047:

Quote
SpaceX test fires twice-flown Falcon 9 for world’s first commercial Moon mission

By Eric Ralph
Posted on February 19, 2019

[...] PSN-6/GTO-1 will feature either Falcon 9 booster B1047 or B1048, two flight-proven boosters with no know missions assigned that are also known to be in Cape Canaveral.
[...]
With B1048 situated in 39A’s hangar, the lack of any reports of a booster moving from 39A to 40 suggest that B1047 was the Falcon 9 that successfully conducted its third on-pad static fire last night.

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-flight-proven-falcon-9-static-fire-commercial-moon-lander-launch/

Edit to add: of course the USAF has a small secondary payload on this flight. That may not have any wider significance but I think it's still interesting.
« Last Edit: 02/19/2019 11:34 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #617 on: 03/15/2019 06:45 am »
Air Force fully going for certification of reused boosters:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/03/14/air-force-sees-upcoming-falcon-heavy-launches-ask-key-to-certifying-reused-rocket-hardware/

Quote from: Stephen Clark
SpaceX is gearing up for the first commercial launch of its powerful Falcon Heavy rocket as soon as early April with a communications satellite for Arabsat, and the U.S. Air Force hopes the two side boosters from the Arabsat mission can be safely landed and reused for the military’s first Falcon Heavy mission this summer, an exercise officials said will help certify previously-flown hardware for future national security launches.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2019 06:45 am by woods170 »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #618 on: 03/26/2019 12:30 pm »
Similar article from SpaceNews with some quotes from Randy Kendall at the Aerospace Corp. (which supports USAF "on all aspects of national security launch, including the certification of new-entrant vehicles"):

Quote
Falcon Heavy’s first commercial launch to pave the way for reusable rockets in national security missions
by Sandra Erwin — March 25, 2019

https://spacenews.com/falcon-heavys-first-commercial-launch-to-pave-the-way-for-reusable-rockets-in-national-security-missions/

Quote
Kendall told SpaceNews. “This will further refine our strategy for the mission assurance activities that we have to conduct to get comfortable with reused boosters,” he said. “Reusability is definitely coming soon. We’re getting close.”

Quote
Although the Air Force has not set a deadline for when it will certify previously flown hardware for NSSL [National Security Space Launch] missions, Kendall said it should not be long.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #619 on: 04/12/2019 06:07 pm »
Worth noting SpaceX’s plan to reuse fairings for the first time:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1116514068393680896

Quote
Both fairing halves recovered. Will be flown on Starlink 💫 mission later this year.

Presumably the plan is demonstrate success on a SpaceX (Starlink) flight so that customers are persuaded it’s safe to do? If they manage to use them on Starlink flight planned for May then good evidence that little refurbishment is required.

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