Author Topic: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.  (Read 85811 times)

Offline David Still

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #100 on: 09/01/2016 06:07 pm »
I have to wonder whether today's AMOS-6 LOV will cast a pall, causing Elon to delay the reveal until more time has passed and this loss fades a bit.

CRS-7 delayed his speech the last time.

Online philw1776

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #101 on: 09/01/2016 06:42 pm »
I have to wonder whether today's AMOS-6 LOV will cast a pall, causing Elon to delay the reveal until more time has passed and this loss fades a bit.

CRS-7 delayed his speech the last time.

Musk, musing late last night:
"You know, my speech is not quite ready and I haven't done any of my Powerpoints yet.
There must be SOME way I can get an excuse to delay it again..."
« Last Edit: 09/01/2016 06:43 pm by philw1776 »
Lori, you have got to tell your friend Elon he can't do that.(FH) He's in our lane! You made us get out of low-Earth orbit, so we've given him that lane, but this is our lane!  We build the big rockets!

Offline Eerie

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #102 on: 09/01/2016 06:46 pm »
Musk, musing late last night:
"You know, my speech is not quite ready and I haven't done any of my Powerpoints yet.
There must be SOME way I can get an excuse to delay it again..."

It makes perfect sense... if you assume Musk is really a super-villain.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #103 on: 09/01/2016 07:53 pm »
As I said on Twitter, I'm not expecting this to alter the BFR/BFS and Mars architecture announcement itself, though if there is a Q/A then I expect there may be a few questions, depending at what point in the investigation of this event SpaceX has reached
"Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou
 Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Online philw1776

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #104 on: 09/01/2016 08:29 pm »
As I said on Twitter, I'm not expecting this to alter the BFR/BFS and Mars architecture announcement itself, though if there is a Q/A then I expect there may be a few questions, depending at what point in the investigation of this event SpaceX has reached

It might be best assuming he has definitive information that he does a presser days before IAC where he addresses such questions.  Keeps his IAC talk focused. 

I'm hoping for a rapid and accurate fault tree resolution.

Back to IAC topic.
Lori, you have got to tell your friend Elon he can't do that.(FH) He's in our lane! You made us get out of low-Earth orbit, so we've given him that lane, but this is our lane!  We build the big rockets!

Offline DJPledger

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #105 on: 09/02/2016 08:06 am »
Hopefully EM will still announce BFR/MCT at IAC but there is a chance he could dumb down the talk or even postpone it for another event sometime after RTF.

Offline Ludus

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #106 on: 09/04/2016 02:14 pm »
As much as we'd like to see it anyway it really isn't the optimal time for announcing a hyper ambitious new project like BFR/MCT. Canceling the presentation because he has to work on RTF makes sense and is an obvious priority. Next years conference may be much more appropriate.

No purpose is served by making this sort of presentation with bad timing. It could end up doing harm if it's interpreted as overreach and a desperate attempt to distract from other business problems.

Offline Terra Incognita

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #107 on: 09/04/2016 02:27 pm »
He could still do the talk but it might be the more Generic "why we must become a multi-planet species talk"

Disappointing but I'm trying to manage my own expectations. :(

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #108 on: 09/04/2016 03:02 pm »
As much as we'd like to see it anyway it really isn't the optimal time for announcing a hyper ambitious new project like BFR/MCT. Canceling the presentation because he has to work on RTF makes sense and is an obvious priority. Next years conference may be much more appropriate.

No purpose is served by making this sort of presentation with bad timing. It could end up doing harm if it's interpreted as overreach and a desperate attempt to distract from other business problems.

If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

At some point, you either stand up, describe and completely commit to your vision, or you abandon it.  And actually, what better way to try and lift your public image out of a great, flaming hole it has suddenly stumbled into?

Canceling this presentation is tantamount to saying "every stubbed toe on the path to our vision runs the risk of us just dropping it entirely."

Kennedy did not announce the Moon decision while in a comfortable, leading position in world public opinion.  He announced it from a position of adversity, with not a little portion of defiance in his message -- defiance of the bad luck, bad timing and poor commitment to a goal that led us to the position we were in at that time.

Folding up your tent and going home when life happens and you stumble over roadblocks is not how you get people to buy in to your vision.  Meeting and overcoming adversity is how humans achieve great things.  Meeting adversity and saying "maybe this is too hard, we shouldn't even try it" is how most human beings fail.

So, I don't see SpaceX pulling back from their reveal at this point.

And, on a totally human level, I can't imagine Elon Musk will get a good night's sleep again for the rest of his life if he pulls back from his vision -- every 3 am he'll pop out of bed with the realization that, by abandoning his vision, he let down his company, his nation, and quite possibly the entire human species...
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline Eerie

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #109 on: 09/04/2016 03:14 pm »
If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

Oh wow. Such a prime example of "doom and gloom" post. I'm impressed.

Offline Lar

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #110 on: 09/04/2016 05:25 pm »
If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

Oh wow. Such a prime example of "doom and gloom" post. I'm impressed.
I didn't see it that way, I saw it as a prediction that the presentation would go on anyway.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online xanmarus

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #111 on: 09/04/2016 05:38 pm »
Oh wow. Such a prime example of "doom and gloom" post. I'm impressed.
More like child who don't get that shiny toy.

SpaceX can't pull their Mars plans alone, so they need good PR. Announcement should be delayed for better time, it's not big deal since work on BFR/MCT will continue anyway.

Online Chris Bergin

Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #112 on: 09/04/2016 06:34 pm »
SpaceX lost their opening flights and were one failure away from running out of money (Elon's words). They got over the hump, started to make it work and were in a very strong position to cope with CRS-7. There is simply ZERO chance Amos-6 will "cancel" the Mars roadmap plan.

I personally don't think it will stop Elon's speech unless they have a serious struggle with root cause and even then I think he'll still do it. Personally I think they'll have root cause and already be implementing remedy and recovery to get back into action by the end of this month and then schedule when the next launch will be.

But one can qualify it by how he conducts himself in "public". Tesla had a few incidents (that the mass media made a big deal out of - mostly unfairly too) and he didn't hide away. He instead pushed his masterplan.

If anything, Amos-6 might be more of a push to say "ok, that one was bad, but we'll recover and push on, and THIS is why, this is what we're aiming for...."

That at least covers the colonization speech, although we want the BFR/MCT stuff here. I think a Senator from Alabama is more of a threat to keeping that out of the speech than Amos-6 ;)
« Last Edit: 09/04/2016 06:35 pm by Chris Bergin »

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #113 on: 09/04/2016 07:09 pm »
Chris,

You make the best argument for what I've seen of "Musk derangement syndrome". So they screw up, why do people have to imagine things come crashing down.

SX is just starting to get interesting.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #114 on: 09/04/2016 07:26 pm »
If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

Oh wow. Such a prime example of "doom and gloom" post. I'm impressed.
I didn't see it that way, I saw it as a prediction that the presentation would go on anyway.

Exactly.  I truly don't think Elon Musk will announce "OK, it just got too hard, forget it for now."

It is my hope and my desire that Musk knows how to make this awful event work to advance his vision, and not to derail it.  If nothing else, he has shown a genius for doing that kind of thing in the past.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #115 on: 09/04/2016 10:22 pm »
If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

Oh wow. Such a prime example of "doom and gloom" post. I'm impressed.
I didn't see it that way, I saw it as a prediction that the presentation would go on anyway.

I get the feeling from Doug that Elon has to pull off a combination, Battle of Britain Speech, and We will do the Hard Things... and I quite agree... no pressure Elon...

edit: a little bit of MLKjr I have a dream!! :D

Gramps
« Last Edit: 09/04/2016 10:27 pm by cro-magnon gramps »
"Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou
 Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #116 on: 09/04/2016 10:43 pm »
If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

Oh wow. Such a prime example of "doom and gloom" post. I'm impressed.
I didn't see it that way, I saw it as a prediction that the presentation would go on anyway.

I get the feeling from Doug that Elon has to pull off a combination, Battle of Britain Speech, and We will do the Hard Things... and I quite agree... no pressure Elon...

edit: a little bit of MLKjr I have a dream!! :D

Gramps

Absolutely right!

And you're also right -- no pressure at all, Elon.  No pressure at all...  ::)
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline Ludus

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #117 on: 09/05/2016 03:44 pm »
As much as we'd like to see it anyway it really isn't the optimal time for announcing a hyper ambitious new project like BFR/MCT. Canceling the presentation because he has to work on RTF makes sense and is an obvious priority. Next years conference may be much more appropriate.

No purpose is served by making this sort of presentation with bad timing. It could end up doing harm if it's interpreted as overreach and a desperate attempt to distract from other business problems.

If SpaceX cancels this presentation, I'm pretty certain it will be for good.

At some point, you either stand up, describe and completely commit to your vision, or you abandon it.  And actually, what better way to try and lift your public image out of a great, flaming hole it has suddenly stumbled into?

Canceling this presentation is tantamount to saying "every stubbed toe on the path to our vision runs the risk of us just dropping it entirely."

Kennedy did not announce the Moon decision while in a comfortable, leading position in world public opinion.  He announced it from a position of adversity, with not a little portion of defiance in his message -- defiance of the bad luck, bad timing and poor commitment to a goal that led us to the position we were in at that time.

Folding up your tent and going home when life happens and you stumble over roadblocks is not how you get people to buy in to your vision.  Meeting and overcoming adversity is how humans achieve great things.  Meeting adversity and saying "maybe this is too hard, we shouldn't even try it" is how most human beings fail.

So, I don't see SpaceX pulling back from their reveal at this point.

And, on a totally human level, I can't imagine Elon Musk will get a good night's sleep again for the rest of his life if he pulls back from his vision -- every 3 am he'll pop out of bed with the realization that, by abandoning his vision, he let down his company, his nation, and quite possibly the entire human species...

The presentation and public announcement isn't the project or the vision. It's not like they aren't already doing this. Unlike NASA they can go ahead and develop a new rocket engine and do anything else they want without explaining it to Congress or the public and they have been.

To us Elon canceling a speech at an obscure conference in Mexico is a huge disappointment. To the public in general it's nothing at all. It does matter quite a bit what the status of the investigation and RTF is at the time though. If issues aren't resolved it would seem very odd in the middle of a corporate crisis where all normal operations are still in limbo to announce vast new ambitions. It would seem more over the top and desperate than bold. To most people BFR/MCT isn't a long anticipated reveal that he'd be retreating from, it's something totally out of the blue.

In the past Elon has confronted challenges very directly and seriously and I'd expect that in dealing with the anomaly and RTF. The decision about the presentation is about timing and PR, not the project itself.

When Kennedy made his speech announcing the Apollo program it was in September of 1962 after a string of successful Mercury missions including matching the Soviet orbital launches.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2016 04:03 pm by Ludus »

Offline RonM

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #118 on: 09/05/2016 03:58 pm »
SpaceX is a big corporation with thousands of employees. They can do an investigation, make changes if necessary, rebuild the pad, work on new projects, etc. all at the same time. Even if they cancel the presentation for PR reasons, and I don't think they will, work on their Mars architecture will continue.

SpaceX needs to let governments and industry in on their Mars plans because it will be easier to have partners than going it alone. IAC is the best place for the announcement. We'll hear what Elon has to say in about three weeks.

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: NSF at IAC Mexico for the SpaceX Mars Announcement.
« Reply #119 on: 09/05/2016 04:50 pm »
Stay focused on the timing of his upcoming reveal. That says all about this.

Suggest that the power of SX's attempt at LV/SC innovation is agile genY's/millennials. They are at once capable/forceful/inspirable/cynical/despairing/uncontrollable. Musk rides this chimerical force, directing (we hope) their desires (not just his).

For him to say what he means, and mean what he says, SX must go to Mars. FH/RD allow him to start the process, as soon as 2018. But it would be an empty gesture with these alone, unless it had something to build to. A vision (suggest that its the reveal) and a credible step along the path (Raptor full scale on a test stand) nails your colors to the mast.

The hill you will live or die on.

That's not to say totally messing up on your business to getting there, because you lost your customer's SC because you not only did not control/handle a static test such that you detected/safed the vehicle before losing it, you also in your arrogance lost the customer's vehicle as well, doesn't make an impact. For a proud company that considers itself capable of something governments haven't dared, its a big hit close to a year from another big hit.

SX is now equally capable of both great accomplishment as well as disaster. Clearly just as much as reaching for more accomplishment, they must make a still larger effort to avoid disaster.

So in Musk's talk, the reveal is not just about the goal/means, but a clear eyed recognition of the necessary struggle to reduce the risk even more than a nation's prior lunar landing success struggled with, as well.

add:
On the tawdry side, some have alluded to a distracted Musk, mooning over an recently available Amber Heard (who doesn't like him in the least), hasn't helped SX/Tesla any this summer (oh, Hollywood) ... focus ... focus ... focus ... ;)
« Last Edit: 09/05/2016 05:05 pm by Space Ghost 1962 »

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