Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic  (Read 6025 times)

Offline sewebster

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Elon just tweeted this link out... cool video history of F9.

Offline chrisking0997

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #1 on: 04/14/2016 04:31 pm »
talk about perspective.  wow
Tried to tell you, we did.  Listen, you did not.  Now, screwed we all are.

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #2 on: 04/14/2016 04:32 pm »
Most of us here remember watching all of this unfold as it happened (many thanks to this site of course). In hindsight the rate of progress is breathtaking and worthy of pause.
« Last Edit: 04/14/2016 04:46 pm by The Amazing Catstronaut »
Resident feline spaceflight expert. Knows nothing of value about human spaceflight.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #3 on: 04/14/2016 04:44 pm »
Incredible video and pace of development.  Considering 2 new variations of the launch vehicle along the way.

I really like SpaceX's use of tacking on development to paying missions.  It's a nice iterative approach that obviously produces impressive additive results over time.

The video references F9v1.2, is that now a SpaceX accepted name?  Elon retweeted but the video is by others.

Predictions for the next 4 years:
-routine reuse of the F9S1
-Dragon 2 propulsive landings
-fairing reuse
-A new more stable and capable ASDS
-early development of raptor powered US recovery
Needing a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline Chris Bergin

Heh....back when the Rocket Cows of McGregor stampeded. Now they give exactly zero chills to rockets.

Great video!
« Last Edit: 04/14/2016 05:02 pm by Chris Bergin »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #5 on: 04/14/2016 05:03 pm »
I think what this video does a great job of showing is that it takes time and a very concerted effort to perfect something like this.  In this case almost 4 years, and SpaceX had a lot of customers that they could use for live testing - doing something like this on your nickel would be potentially cost prohibitive.

So surveying the world of competitors to SpaceX, who else besides Blue Origin is ready to start a 4 year quest to match where SpaceX is today?

Anyone?

We should, as a community, be rooting for others to join this club, but unfortunately only Blue Origin looks like it can come close to competing.  That does not bode well for SpaceX competitors, who will now be permanently locked into a competition for "the high cost option we have to keep for redundancy".

Interesting times...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #6 on: 04/14/2016 05:43 pm »
I think what this video does a great job of showing is that it takes time and a very concerted effort to perfect something like this.  In this case almost 4 years, and SpaceX had a lot of customers that they could use for live testing - doing something like this on your nickel would be potentially cost prohibitive.

So surveying the world of competitors to SpaceX, who else besides Blue Origin is ready to start a 4 year quest to match where SpaceX is today?

Anyone?

We should, as a community, be rooting for others to join this club, but unfortunately only Blue Origin looks like it can come close to competing.  That does not bode well for SpaceX competitors, who will now be permanently locked into a competition for "the high cost option we have to keep for redundancy".

Interesting times...

Exactly, even if another company was trying to replicate first stage success by the time they got that down SpaceX would be further down the road with design improvements, fairing reuse and hopefully second stage.

Compounding the issue, SpaceX has done this with a relatively low flight rate.  With increased flight rate the pace of development could increase as well.  Larger market share begetting increased advantage.

I'd like more competition but as long as space access gets cheaper I'm happy.
Needing a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #7 on: 04/14/2016 06:21 pm »
That is a fantastic video.

I got something in my eye around when F9RDev1 went up in a fireball.  Need to dust a little more.

Offline moralec

OMG the video recovered thanks to NSF.com is there!  :P

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #9 on: 04/15/2016 01:05 am »
...
So surveying the world of competitors to SpaceX, who else besides Blue Origin is ready to start a 4 year quest to match where SpaceX is today?

Anyone?
...

Maybe Masten if they have a big fraction of the annual SpaceX R&D budget available. So, no.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #10 on: 04/15/2016 01:27 am »
Maybe Masten if they have a big fraction of the annual SpaceX R&D budget available. So, no.

Maybe, just maybe, there's smarter ways to do it than SpaceX that require less budget. Only time will tell.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #11 on: 04/15/2016 01:49 am »
Maybe Masten if they have a big fraction of the annual SpaceX R&D budget available. So, no.

Maybe, just maybe, there's smarter ways to do it than SpaceX that require less budget. Only time will tell.

SpaceX has designed their transportation system for their specific needs (and what they perceive their customers needs to be).

But I would agree that they may not be pursuing the only way to lower the cost to access space.  Certainly Blue Origin is pursuing a slightly different track, and I hope others can successfully pursue other methods.

Or, and I've recommended this before, someone could just copy what SpaceX is doing.  No IP to stop them, just proprietary information.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #12 on: 04/15/2016 02:11 am »
...
Or, and I've recommended this before, someone could just copy what SpaceX is doing.  No IP to stop them, just proprietary information.
There are not many Billionaires with the tech know how to acquire the infrastructure needed for a large orbital launcher and run it. Musk is the SpaceX CTO & CEO after all, as well as the main PR spokesperson with his tweets. To replicate SpaceX you need another Musk.

Offline llanitedave

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #13 on: 04/15/2016 04:02 am »
Maybe Masten if they have a big fraction of the annual SpaceX R&D budget available. So, no.

Maybe, just maybe, there's smarter ways to do it than SpaceX that require less budget. Only time will tell.


There almost certainly are.  And I would suspect that SpaceX are currently attempting to discover those.  Follow on companies will have the advantage of SpaceX's research, as disseminated by stalking sites such as this.
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #14 on: 04/15/2016 04:45 am »
...
Or, and I've recommended this before, someone could just copy what SpaceX is doing.  No IP to stop them, just proprietary information.
There are not many Billionaires with the tech know how to acquire the infrastructure needed for a large orbital launcher and run it. Musk is the SpaceX CTO & CEO after all, as well as the main PR spokesperson with his tweets. To replicate SpaceX you need another Musk.

I think you just have to convince a billionaire... not necessarily be one... but there would be a lot of work to do...

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #15 on: 04/15/2016 05:03 am »
To replicate SpaceX you need another Musk.

You need someone like Musk to create a reusable rocket system while generating revenue at the same time.

But I would advocate that copying what Elon Musk has done in perfecting the reusable Falcon 9 would take far less time and money.  The software may be a mystery, since we can't publicly see it or quantify it (only what it does), but the hardware can be (and has been) quantified pretty well by many of us on NSF (and no doubt SpaceX competitors).  Thrust, size, weight, capacity - a lot is known well enough to provide a good starting point for an engineering team.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Lars-J

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #16 on: 04/15/2016 05:45 am »
To replicate SpaceX you need another Musk.

You need someone like Musk to create a reusable rocket system while generating revenue at the same time.

But I would advocate that copying what Elon Musk has done in perfecting the reusable Falcon 9 would take far less time and money.  The software may be a mystery, since we can't publicly see it or quantify it (only what it does), but the hardware can be (and has been) quantified pretty well by many of us on NSF (and no doubt SpaceX competitors).  Thrust, size, weight, capacity - a lot is known well enough to provide a good starting point for an engineering team.

Yes, but seeing what needs to be done and actually executing it is a whole different ballgame. Something that us armchair engineers always seem to forget.  ;)

Offline JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #17 on: 04/15/2016 09:06 am »
To replicate SpaceX you need another Musk.

You need someone like Musk to create a reusable rocket system while generating revenue at the same time.

But I would advocate that copying what Elon Musk has done in perfecting the reusable Falcon 9 would take far less time and money.  The software may be a mystery, since we can't publicly see it or quantify it (only what it does), but the hardware can be (and has been) quantified pretty well by many of us on NSF (and no doubt SpaceX competitors).  Thrust, size, weight, capacity - a lot is known well enough to provide a good starting point for an engineering team.

Yes, but seeing what needs to be done and actually executing it is a whole different ballgame. Something that us armchair engineers always seem to forget.  ;)

You only need to look at almost every single Kickstarter campaign to see this in action. Many many people have good ideas, but when it comes to implementing them, it all goes very very pear shaped. Usually when it comes to mass production, which requires a skill set that simply wasn't needed during prototyping, and usually doesn't exist in armchair engineers.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 Development Supercut video by Kinematic
« Reply #18 on: 04/15/2016 01:11 pm »
...
Or, and I've recommended this before, someone could just copy what SpaceX is doing.  No IP to stop them, just proprietary information.
There are not many Billionaires with the tech know how to acquire the infrastructure needed for a large orbital launcher and run it. Musk is the SpaceX CTO & CEO after all, as well as the main PR spokesperson with his tweets. To replicate SpaceX you need another Musk.

I think you just have to convince a billionaire... not necessarily be one... but there would be a lot of work to do...

Billionaires are over-rated... any space launch company could replicate this technological path, but most are beholden to the status quo, hoping against hope that their last grasped straw -- economic viability -- saves their sinking hides.  If ten launches between refurbishments and one hundred launches on a core is even close to true, no one will ever build another expendible launch vehicle.  Those being built at great cost will also be abandoned, maybe without seeing inaugural flight (e.g., Ariane 6 at $6B for development).

I wish that the established American space launch companies, the bulk of which which have been consolidating into a singularity, would head down the reuse path before they vanish completely.


Timely article that contrasts the viewpoints of Old and New Space:

Quote
ULA and SpaceX see the future of space launching very differently
Quote
It was clear SpaceX (also known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) expects the evolution of the launch industry to resemble what its founder, Elon Musk, experienced in launching Internet companies, where economies of scale drive down costs and makes space so accessible that getting (there) begins to be considered a service more than a feat of hardware.

ULA's Bruno doesn’t agree. There’s a lot of potential for commercial business at ULA, Bruno chaffed when asked whether space launch will become a commodity, a service where one provider is almost indistinguishable from another except on price.

“Going to space is not like that and never will be, particularly for large payloads,” he said.

Quote
Shotwell disagreed.

“I think looking at it that way is a mistake. If you say you can’t do it, you won’t do it,” Shotwell said. “To brush it away as not possible I think does the industry a disservice.”

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/boosters_bits/2016/04/ula-and-spacex-see-the-future-of-space-launching.html
« Last Edit: 04/15/2016 02:41 pm by AncientU »
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