Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 246215 times)

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #780 on: 03/18/2019 01:45 pm »
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1106637988979712000

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Not sure if this is official yet, but multiple sources say the NET date for Starliner's OFT (uncrewed test flight) is now August.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, as the Starliner that flies is likely to be very close to the final design for a crewed mission.

Offline cebri

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #781 on: 03/18/2019 09:26 pm »


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Currently, domestic crew capability is scheduled to become available in August 2019 for SpaceX and in December 2019 for Boeing

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy_2020_congressional_justification.pdf

edit:

That is out of date.
« Last Edit: 03/18/2019 09:41 pm by cebri »

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #782 on: 03/18/2019 09:28 pm »
That is out of date.

Offline cebri

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #783 on: 03/18/2019 09:47 pm »
That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #784 on: 03/18/2019 10:16 pm »
That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

It may have just been published but those dates are no longer accurate (unless they're just talking about test flights.) Those are the dates they were talking about in December.

Offline PM3

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #785 on: 03/19/2019 04:27 pm »
That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

It may have just been published but those dates are no longer accurate (unless they're just talking about test flights.) Those are the dates they were talking about in December.

Look at page LSO-35 of that document!

Aug 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3
Apr 2020 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4

Two regular USCV flights in the same month don't make sense. And all the CRS dates in that table match the dates published in February 2019. Now translate:

U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1 = SpX-DM2
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2 = Boe-CFT
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3 = what we have been calling USCV-1
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4 = what we have been calling USCV-2

Online Svetoslav

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #786 on: 03/19/2019 04:31 pm »
There are hints (e.g. Eric Berger's Twitter) that large delays for Starliner are to be announced soon. The uncrewed test flight is now expected NET August.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1106637988979712000
« Last Edit: 03/19/2019 04:33 pm by Svetoslav »

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #787 on: 03/20/2019 02:06 pm »
That is out of date.

Wasnt this published a week ago? Can you elaborate?

It may have just been published but those dates are no longer accurate (unless they're just talking about test flights.) Those are the dates they were talking about in December.

Look at page LSO-35 of that document!

Aug 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2
Dec 2019 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3
Apr 2020 - U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4

Two regular USCV flights in the same month don't make sense. And all the CRS dates in that table match the dates published in February 2019. Now translate:

U.S. Crew Vehicle - 1 = SpX-DM2
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 2 = Boe-CFT
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 3 = what we have been calling USCV-1
U.S. Crew Vehicle - 4 = what we have been calling USCV-2

...and on page LSO-32 you have "The first Post Certification Mission to ISS is scheduled for FY 2019.", which would be the August date (FY ends September 30).

Offline PM3

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #788 on: 03/20/2019 02:11 pm »
...and on page LSO-32 you have "The first Post Certification Mission to ISS is scheduled for FY 2019.", which would be the August date (FY ends September 30).

Sure. Dragon needs to be certified for crew before SpX-DM2, which is planned for August.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #789 on: 03/20/2019 02:14 pm »
...and on page LSO-32 you have "The first Post Certification Mission to ISS is scheduled for FY 2019.", which would be the August date (FY ends September 30).

Sure. Dragon needs to be certified for crew before SpX-DM2, which is planned for August.

"Post Certification Mission" is not DM-2.

Offline PM3

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #790 on: 03/20/2019 03:41 pm »
Hmm. This supports your interpretation:

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After the initial flights, the regular flight plan will provide for two commercial crew flights per year carrying four crew each flight. However, the first two flights for each provider may be scheduled more frequently to reduce risk and accomplish more research.

This would mean that they

* mixed up-to-date CRS schedule with obviously outdated USCV schedule in the same table.  E.g. CRS-19 was moved from Oct 2019 to Dec 2019 last month, so this is up to date,
* with the outdated UCSV-1 schedule accidentially matching the current planning for SpX-DM2 of NET Aug 2019,
* and forgot to list SpX-DM2 and Boe-CFT as "significant events". (SpX-DM1 and Boe-OFT also are missing, but less significant.)

On the other hand, the reassigning of the terms USCV-1 and USCV-2 to SpX-DM2 and Boe-CFT really would be a surprise; compare it to this table.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #791 on: 03/20/2019 03:53 pm »
"Post Certification Mission" and "USCV-1" have specific meanings in this program.  They come after the test flights.  The public releases of dates for CCTCap have been a mess for a while now.  What really matters is just the next flight for each provider, anything after that is a placeholder.

Offline cebri

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #792 on: 03/20/2019 10:26 pm »
https://ria.ru/20190320/1551958175.html

RIA: OFT flight NET 17th August

Offline jpo234

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« Last Edit: 04/03/2019 12:28 pm by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #794 on: 04/03/2019 01:40 pm »
https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1113435289618399232

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NASA and @BoeingSpace have agreed to target August for its uncrewed test flight to the @Space_Station and to extend the duration of the company’s first crewed flight test: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-and-boeing-extend-starliner-crew-flight-test-duration-to-space-station-target-new

Important qualification:

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Boeing is now targeting August for its uncrewed Orbital Flight Test, although this date is a working date and to be confirmed.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #795 on: 04/04/2019 04:47 pm »
Starliner's first crewed mission not likely before 2020.

I wonder whether Boeing has decided that, with things so bad already (737 Max and SLS disasters), now is a good time to drop all the bad news its been trying to not talk about, on the theory that things can't get much worse.