Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 1  (Read 467651 times)

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4578
  • US
  • Liked: 4138
  • Likes Given: 2358
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1520 on: 03/13/2019 12:05 am »
The company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.

Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.

I don't think that's accurate excluding launch. Launch (on a new booster every time) is part of the package, separate costs are not detailed anywhere that I know of.

Crew Dragon only has 2 flights per year. If BFR only flies twice per year, it will cost at least that much, but that rate is not sustainable - it will either fly much more (and lower cost per flight), or not at all.

Crew Dragon only has 1 flight per year, and it's more in the $200-230M range including launch if you look at the amount on the task orders for the flights.  The cost of passenger flights to Mars on BFR is unknown and irrelevant right now, that's far in the future.

The recurring price for crewed Dragon (including ops, excluding launch) is $308m, not $400m. My mistake. The source (page 10): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008893.pdf

The paper you linked is a bunch of estimates.  There is no such thing as a recurring price for crewed Dragon (or CST-100) excluding launch.  Those contracts are for launch and operation of the spacecraft.  That wording was in there because the chart also included other NASA vechicles where the spacecraft and launcher are procured separately.  Adding the cost of the launch to those numbers for Dragon and CST-100 would make them completely absurd. 

NASA has issued task orders for flights under the CCtCap program.  The task orders for the Boeing flights are $350M for each flight.  The task orders for SpaceX don't show a consistent price, starting at $200M for the first one and averaging about $220M for flights 3-6 (for both Boeing and SpaceX the first two flights were done separately, and flights 3-6 as a group.)

Offline theinternetftw

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 392
    • www.theinternetftw.com
  • Liked: 799
  • Likes Given: 403
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1521 on: 03/13/2019 12:57 am »
I know digging up old posts is a pain, but thanks for taking the time.  I think it's an important response not just to my post but to QG's as well.

Also, I'm perhaps a little bit too entertained by the fact that even the NASA folks who seem to have the best handle on how much commercial can save still ended up significantly overestimating how much CCP acquisition was going to cost.

Offline su27k

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1484
  • Liked: 1367
  • Likes Given: 129
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1522 on: 03/13/2019 02:06 am »
Remember all those arguments about seat cost for commercial crew? Well, now we know! NASA has published a paper giving the separate costs for development and unit.

And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:

SpaceX:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma03t, $200,254,129
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma58t, $205,715,924
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk17ma01t, $885,952,220

Boeing:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk15ma50t, $351,107,889
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk16ma04t, $351,107,889
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk17ma02t, $1,404,431,554

Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9048
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 6495
  • Likes Given: 2212
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1523 on: 03/13/2019 07:25 am »
Remember all those arguments about seat cost for commercial crew? Well, now we know! NASA has published a paper giving the separate costs for development and unit.

And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:

SpaceX:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma03t, $200,254,129
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma58t, $205,715,924
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk17ma01t, $885,952,220

Boeing:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk15ma50t, $351,107,889
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk16ma04t, $351,107,889
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk17ma02t, $1,404,431,554

Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M

Interesting this.

The SpaceX numbers come to a total of ~ $1.3B for their six PCM missions. Which is roughly half of the total SpaceX is getting under CCtCAP: $2.6B.

The Boeing numbers come to a total of ~ 2.1B for their six PCM missions. Which is again roughly half of the total Boeing is getting under CCtCAP: $4.2B.

This would suggest that the contracting structure for CCtCAP is very simple: half the money involved is for final development of the CCP systems, including the test flights (both unmanned and manned) and the other half of the money is for operational missions.

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8830
  • Australia
  • Liked: 3832
  • Likes Given: 917
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1524 on: 03/13/2019 07:51 am »
Average seat price.. (assuming 4 seats per flight)

No idea why you're assuming that when NASA has already said they won't be using the 4th seat.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online abaddon

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1804
  • Liked: 1320
  • Likes Given: 1298
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1525 on: 03/13/2019 07:53 am »
Average seat price.. (assuming 4 seats per flight)

No idea why you're assuming that when NASA has already said they won't be using the 4th seat.
Because you're wrong, and they will be using four seats?  They've gone on and on about how this will allow them to expand ISS science by adding a 7th crew member to the station since forever.  They've also talked about how there are two astros assigned to the first crewed flight, with two international partner astros to be named later.

(If you're counting only NASA astronauts here, then Soyuz doesn't fly three and Shuttle didn't fly seven, and your accounting system is broken).
« Last Edit: 03/13/2019 07:57 am by abaddon »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 19590
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 7453
  • Likes Given: 996
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1526 on: 03/13/2019 09:17 am »
And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:

Wow! Thanks for that information. The author of the paper was estimating costs based on the FY2016 budget request. He estimated unit costs (including launch) of $405M and $654M for SpaceX and Orion, compared to $215M and $351M actual. That's an overestimate of 88% and 86%, respectively. In the 2016 budget, the crew and cargo budget increases from $1,606M in 2016 to $2,334M in 2020. Assuming $90M a seat on Soyuz, that gives a cost difference of 2334-1606+6*90 = $1268M. His estimate is 405+654 = $1059M, close to this value (estimate is 20% higher).

In this years budget, the actual crew and cargo cost is $1727M. Thus, the actual difference is 1727-1606+6*90 = $661M. Adding CST-100 and Dragon 2, that gives 215+351 = $566M, close to this difference (estimate is 17% higher). The extra 20% and 17% could be due in part to changes in prices for cargo and NASA overhead for the crewed launches.

I have to say that $215M for a crewed launch is an amazing price! With a full complement of 7 crew, that works out to only $31M per seat. I don't think Boeing will be able to compete outside of NASA on getting passengers if it is charging $351M.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Online abaddon

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1804
  • Liked: 1320
  • Likes Given: 1298
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1527 on: 03/13/2019 04:21 pm »
I have to say that $215M for a crewed launch is an amazing price! With a full complement of 7 crew, that works out to only $31M per seat. I don't think Boeing will be able to compete outside of NASA on getting passengers if it is charging $351M.
$350 million is still only $50 million/seat if flying seven.  I think it's unclear how interested SpaceX will be in flying commercial passengers on Dragon depending on how Starliner is going.  There could be a reasonably long window where Boeing would be the only game in town if they wanted to pursue it.

I think finding seven passengers who are willing to spend either amount all going up together might be a bigger challenge, though, and the pricing goes up dramatically as you subtract passengers...

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 653
  • Liked: 353
  • Likes Given: 271
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1528 on: 03/13/2019 04:51 pm »
They payoff for commercial customers of the Commercial Crew Program will be when SpaceX's starship flies. Crewed starship would not be possible (in the same time frame) without SpaceX learning from NASA about how to fly crew.

Offline dubya

  • Member
  • Posts: 9
  • Canada
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1529 on: 03/21/2019 02:03 pm »
It's almost like they baked the numbers that way...

For example, there's virtually no chance that NASA will be paying $77M/seat for Dragon, they'll be paying the unit price and flying 2 or 3 seats. Worse for Starliner (why are they still using CST-100?)

Thankfully, few people ever took seriously the idea that spending $6B to develop two vehicles*, that will cost more for NASA to fly than just buying seats on Soyuz until the retirement of the ISS, was about cost saving. It's about national prestige and giving money to Boeing (with SpaceX along for the ride). Only recently has anyone been pushing the idea that Dragon/Starliner have a lifetime beyond the ISS - and it's really not that popular a viewpoint.

* Plus the rest of the funding that went into this program - notice how none of that got accounted.

  Though I agree in principal with your cynicism, this may not be quite so bad. National pride is certainly a primary factor here but I don't think it is the only factor. In the long run the biggest effect of commercial crew will be the technology and experience gained by both Boeing and SpaceX. Although I can see Boeing doing exactly nothing with it, SpaceX is already welding junk in a field.
  Also, if all goes well, in the next 9 months there will be at least one privately owned, NASA approved, rocket and capsule that can do space tourism stuff. Which IMHO is the thin edge of the wedge.

Online docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5457
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 2845
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1530 on: 03/23/2019 10:53 am »
Bob Behnken ✔ @AstroBehnken
 But even after all that, I'm super excited about what my future w/@NASA holds! Check out these cools shots @SpaceX shared with those of us scheduled to fly on #CrewDragon!
8:30 PM - Mar 22, 2019

https://twitter.com/AstroBehnken/status/1109250971757010945
« Last Edit: 03/23/2019 10:53 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline rpapo

Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1531 on: 03/23/2019 04:54 pm »
That image makes me think of Keir Dullea in the movie 2001.  Just add a few more colored reflections on the helmet glass.
An Apollo fanboy . . . fifty years ago.

Offline Prettz

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 320
  • O'Neillian
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Liked: 141
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1532 on: 03/24/2019 01:22 am »
Yeah they can't fool me, that's definitely from a sci-fi movie.

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9048
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 6495
  • Likes Given: 2212
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1533 on: 03/24/2019 09:53 am »
Bob Behnken ✔ @AstroBehnken
 But even after all that, I'm super excited about what my future w/@NASA holds! Check out these cools shots @SpaceX shared with those of us scheduled to fly on #CrewDragon!
8:30 PM - Mar 22, 2019

https://twitter.com/AstroBehnken/status/1109250971757010945

Darn! The photographer did a beautiful job in placing those softboxes. Their reflections in the visor are almost perfectly symmetrical and make Bob's face really pop out.
« Last Edit: 03/24/2019 09:53 am by woods170 »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2022
  • Boston, MA
  • Liked: 3211
  • Likes Given: 398
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1534 on: 03/24/2019 01:50 pm »
Darn! The photographer did a beautiful job in placing those softboxes. Their reflections in the visor are almost perfectly symmetrical and make Bob's face really pop out.
I think the point of the suit is _prevent_ Bobís face from really popping out...!
« Last Edit: 03/24/2019 04:39 pm by gongora »
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9048
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 6495
  • Likes Given: 2212
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1535 on: 03/24/2019 04:11 pm »
Darn! The photographer did a beautiful job in placing those softboxes. Their reflections in the visor are almost perfectly symmetrical and make Bob's face really pop out.
I think the point of the suit is _prevent_ Bobís face from really popping out...!

OK, that was another "spill my tea all over the keyboard" moment. Well done sir!
« Last Edit: 03/24/2019 04:39 pm by gongora »

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8830
  • Australia
  • Liked: 3832
  • Likes Given: 917
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1536 on: 03/24/2019 10:34 pm »
Because you're wrong, and they will be using four seats?  They've gone on and on about how this will allow them to expand ISS science by adding a 7th crew member to the station since forever.  They've also talked about how there are two astros assigned to the first crewed flight, with two international partner astros to be named later.

It's almost like you can't read between the lines.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8830
  • Australia
  • Liked: 3832
  • Likes Given: 917
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1537 on: 03/24/2019 10:35 pm »
  Also, if all goes well, in the next 9 months there will be at least one privately owned, NASA approved, rocket and capsule that can do space tourism stuff. Which IMHO is the thin edge of the wedge.

... and neither provider has any intention of using that system to do "space tourism stuff". SpaceX is moving on to Starship. Boeing couldn't care less..
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4578
  • US
  • Liked: 4138
  • Likes Given: 2358
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1538 on: 03/24/2019 11:06 pm »
Because you're wrong, and they will be using four seats?  They've gone on and on about how this will allow them to expand ISS science by adding a 7th crew member to the station since forever.  They've also talked about how there are two astros assigned to the first crewed flight, with two international partner astros to be named later.

It's almost like you can't read between the lines.

Apparently I can't read between the lines either.  Could you be more explicit?

Online Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4664
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 3362
  • Likes Given: 4584
Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1539 on: 03/24/2019 11:23 pm »
Regarding the number of crew on a Commercial Crew flight, we know that the max on the ISS today is limited by them having two 3-seat Soyuz docked at the ISS.

With Commercial Crew, both Dragon 2 and Starliner, I have always heard that NASA wanted to fly in a 4-seat configuration, with 4 crew, with the intent being that they would be able to increase the ISS science output due to having that 7th crew person being able to focus on science and not station upkeep. Those 7 crew would be supported by the 3-seat Soyuz and 4-seat Dragon 2 or Starliner.

I do agree that no one has seriously mentioned flying NASA missions to the ISS with more than 4 crew, but both Dragon 2 and Starliner have the capability to hold up to 7 passengers and crew.

So do we have evidence that NASA no longer plans to fly 4 crew on the Commercial Crew flights? Or we good?  :o
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Tags: