Author Topic: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion  (Read 130838 times)

Offline spectre9

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #240 on: 12/10/2011 04:16 am »
I do notice that management has been replaced.

I was wrong.  :-[

Hopefully the new team does a good job and gets this launched.

Good luck everybody.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #241 on: 12/10/2011 03:02 pm »
Quote
...when we are talking billions of dead presidents.

Ya gotta do a bit more research there, mate.  We've only got some forty dead presidents....

Moving right along....
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline randomly

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #242 on: 12/10/2011 07:46 pm »
Only fourty so far. But Sacrifices have to be made for the cause.

Offline JohnnySokko

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #243 on: 12/10/2011 08:17 pm »
Quote
...when we are talking billions of dead presidents.

Ya gotta do a bit more research there, mate.  We've only got some forty dead presidents....

Moving right along....
I assume he's talking about images of dead presidents that are on US dollars, as in billions of dollars mate!

Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #244 on: 12/10/2011 09:59 pm »
Another thing JWST might look for is evidence of larger supernova due to huge / many solar jeans mass within a certain range where it does not result in a black hole but rather explodes completely and "salts" the ISM with metals at a rate much higher than now. Something has to explain how metals ramped up to a certain percentage of baryonic matter and then their rate of increase slowed.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #245 on: 12/11/2011 03:11 pm »
Quote
I assume he's talking about images of dead presidents that are on US dollars, as in billions of dollars mate!

Must be one of those things I flat out don't get...
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #246 on: 12/24/2011 04:07 pm »
Thank you JWST... you only grew from about $6 billion to about $8.8 billion.

We will see bigger gains next year...

Meanwhile planetary and heliophysics, as well as astrophysics, will continue to suffer.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

VR
RE327
You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

Offline krytek

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #247 on: 12/24/2011 09:53 pm »
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-12/darpas-new-membrane-optics-spy-satellite-could-capture-video-earth-22000-feet

For that money, you could potentially have a whole constellation of on orbit.
I mean look at the development costs, tens of millions compared to billions
I don't know how someone can justify that.

Offline Comga

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #248 on: 12/25/2011 02:45 am »
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-12/darpas-new-membrane-optics-spy-satellite-could-capture-video-earth-22000-feet

For that money, you could potentially have a whole constellation of on orbit.
I mean look at the development costs, tens of millions compared to billions
I don't know how someone can justify that.

The linked article says that the technology for membrane imaging is being developed by Ball Aerospace.  Ball has also been working on Webb, building the mirror segments, which are now compete, and the system that will align them into the single aperture telescope in deep space.   That technology is nearly ready for launching.  The membrane imaging is very, very far from that.  And the costs stated are just to get the work started.  It's too early to jump to the new shiny thing.

(Those statements have nothing to do with my opinion of continued spending, ~$4B?, on JWST.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline spectre9

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #249 on: 12/25/2011 03:10 am »
We know all these technologies are needed for the Webb to work it's just too bad it's cost so much.

I really hope those working on it can make all the breakthroughs they need so we can get it where it needs to be and start making some new discoveries.

Offline krytek

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #250 on: 12/25/2011 03:18 am »
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-12/darpas-new-membrane-optics-spy-satellite-could-capture-video-earth-22000-feet

For that money, you could potentially have a whole constellation of on orbit.
I mean look at the development costs, tens of millions compared to billions
I don't know how someone can justify that.

The linked article says that the technology for membrane imaging is being developed by Ball Aerospace.  Ball has also been working on Webb, building the mirror segments, which are now compete, and the system that will align them into the single aperture telescope in deep space.   That technology is nearly ready for launching.  The membrane imaging is very, very far from that.  And the costs stated are just to get the work started.  It's too early to jump to the new shiny thing.

(Those statements have nothing to do with my opinion of continued spending, ~$4B?, on JWST.)
Thank you for the correction.

Online QuantumG

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #251 on: 01/13/2012 06:08 am »


please do remember comedy is subjective.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #252 on: 01/13/2012 06:48 am »


please do remember comedy is subjective.



That really is funny though :D


And impressive just to hear someone real off all the incorrect estimates in a row like that. Really sums the whole mess up.
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Offline deltaV

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #253 on: 02/09/2012 10:24 pm »
If the astrophysics community were given the choice between spending X billion dollars on finishing the JWST versus spending the same amount of money on other astrophysics projects, which would they choose?

Offline baldusi

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #254 on: 02/10/2012 10:47 am »
If the astrophysics community were given the choice between spending X billion dollars on finishing the JWST versus spending the same amount of money on other astrophysics projects, which would they choose?
The fact is that it's not the astrophysics community. Is the whole SMD that's paying the price. I wonder if then they'll freeze the astrophysics budget and let the Planetary, the Solar Physics or the Earth Observation take a decade's budget from the rest. It could very well be a four decades cycle.

Online QuantumG

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #255 on: 02/10/2012 12:03 pm »
And not just SMD.. Bolden's announcement was that all the agency "benefits" from JWST and needs to pay their "fair share". They're literally rewarding failure here.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #256 on: 02/10/2012 07:44 pm »
The TEA Party in Space was correct when many here thought they were wrong.  This isn't TPIS saying this... this is Aviation Week:

NASA will take only an $89 million cut in its topline spending request for fiscal 2013 compared to this year’s operating plan, sources said Friday, but the $17.711 billion NASA budget proposal due out Feb. 13 will axe the joint effort with Europe to return samples from Mars, to pay for development overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news%2Fawx%2F2012%2F02%2F10%2Fawx_02_10_2012_p0-423848.xml&headline=NASA

NASA is in for a very rude awakening once those who pay no attention to NASA suddenly start focusing on the horrible track record of JWST, CxP, ect.  NASA is only .42 of the budget.

VR
RE327
You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #257 on: 02/10/2012 08:08 pm »
And not just SMD.. Bolden's announcement was that all the agency "benefits" from JWST and needs to pay their "fair share". They're literally rewarding failure here.

If by "benefit", Mr. Bolden should mean that NASA would benefit from actually launching this scope, that would be a truth I could agree with.  As to the idea of some poorly elucidated hammer and sickle kind of idea about "fair share", should he mean that the rest of the unmanned side of NASA should buckle up and pay the price for JWST out of their budgets, then I could not agree with that.
« Last Edit: 02/11/2012 12:23 pm by JohnFornaro »
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #258 on: 02/10/2012 08:34 pm »
Here's a problem I have with making JWST a huge priority for NASA: I very seriously doubt they can get the probability of failure (launch+deployment+unknownunknowns, etc) below 10%. Even Ariane 5 has had 4 failures in 60 launches (though the last 50+ have been successful). And a multitude deployments very far from Earth and all the other stuff that needs to go absolutely right...

Russian Roulette, IMHO. Much better to not have all your eggs in one basket.
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Offline iamlucky13

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Re: JWST: Albatross of SMD now $8.8 billion
« Reply #259 on: 02/10/2012 09:55 pm »
The TEA Party in Space was correct when many here thought they were wrong.  This isn't TPIS saying this... this is Aviation Week:

NASA will take only an $89 million cut in its topline spending request for fiscal 2013 compared to this year’s operating plan, sources said Friday, but the $17.711 billion NASA budget proposal due out Feb. 13 will axe the joint effort with Europe to return samples from Mars, to pay for development overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news%2Fawx%2F2012%2F02%2F10%2Fawx_02_10_2012_p0-423848.xml&headline=NASA

NASA is in for a very rude awakening once those who pay no attention to NASA suddenly start focusing on the horrible track record of JWST, CxP, ect.  NASA is only .42 of the budget.

VR
RE327

This isn't a one year reduction, nor are we talking about one year programs. Mars Sample Return has been sitting on the back burner for a while, and while obviously JWST continued cost growth is a big part of why it's not moving forward, in the long term plans that originally supported both happening, the budget for 2012 and 2013 were a lot more.

For example, the 2010 budget, already post-Constellation and deep into the recession, forecast $18.6 billion in each of 2012 and 2013.

In 2009, when Constellation was still active, 2013 was forecast for $19.4 billion.

Compared to what they were expecting when making the plans that put us in this situation, the decrease is a lot more than $79 million.

I'm not arguing against your point in the least, but it's worth pointing out that even without projects facing ballooning costs, NASA is heavily dependent on a stable budget.

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