NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
International Space Flight (ESA, Russia, China and others) => Russian Launchers - Soyuz, Progress and Uncrewed => Topic started by: B. Hendrickx on 10/11/2022 11:17 pm
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It looks like there is yet another launch planned from Plesetsk on 18 October between 19.00 and 21.00 UTC.
A6321/22 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02145E024
A) ENOB B) 2210181900 C) 2210212100
D) DAILY 1900-2100
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA 2 OCT 22' ACTIVATED IN
PSN: 755900N 0212600E - 755000N 0220200E - 753100N 0225600E -
752100N 0225200E - 751500N 0221300E - 752400N 0212900E - 753600N
0205100E - 755000N 0203000E - (755900N 0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR
RUSSIAN ROCKET FRAGMENTS IN THE BASIN OF BARENTS SEA
F) SFC G) UNL
The impact zone in the Barents Sea points to a launch into polar orbit. The coordinates are very similar to those announced for earlier Soyuz-2-1v launches, more particularly for the impact zone of the payload fairing. However, no coordinates are seen in this NOTAM for the first stage, which is jettisoned earlier in the launch.
There were rumors last month that up to seven Russian launches were planned for October. So far one has taken place (Kosmos-2558) and five are known to be scheduled (Angosat-2, EMKA-3, 18 October launch, Gonets-M, Progress MS-21). This could mean that there will be a fourth launch from Plesetsk later in the month, a launch cadence not seen at the northern cosmodrome in a long time.
[zubenelgenubi: Satellite or satellites are expected to receive a Kosmos designation.]
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The Insider writes Soyuz 2.1v with Volga upper stage and several satellites.
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Could be the three small satellites (MKA nrs. 1, 2 and 3) of the VNIIEM Corporation that were supposed to be launched in the second half of this year. They were mentioned in a presentation given by a VNIIEM representative last June.
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2 satellites only (?)
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2 satellites only (?)
Yes, that's what the insider is saying. He also seemed to be implying that these are payloads that have not flown before.
Could still be two of the three VNIIEM satellites. We don't know if they were all supposed to be launched together. Unflown VNIIEM military satellites are Razbeg and Geovysota. The latter is very unlikely though because that's supposed to go into a very low orbit and this mission carries the Volga upper stage.
The only other option I see right now is that it's something from the CNIIHM stable. Nivelir and Burevestnik have most likely already flown, but Numizmat probably hasn't. But it's perfectly possible that there are other new military satellites out there that we simply don't know about.
One also wonders if the timing of the Angara launch and the Soyuz-2-1v launch just four days apart (and both going to polar orbit) is coincidental or not. But I guess that takes us too far into the realm of speculation.
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The insider:
14Ф164 and 14Ф172
maybe Bart can do something with it...
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The insider:
14Ф164 and 14Ф172
maybe Bart can do something with it...
I've never seen these designators before. Clearly two different satellites. Possibly, there will be some sort of interaction between them. My best guess right now is Numizmat, a CNIIHM project started in 2014. One subcontractor for Numizmat seen in procurement and court documentation is the Progress Rocket and Space Center, most likely for a Soyuz-class launch vehicle. Taking into account CNIIHM's specialization in small satellites, the Soyuz-2-1v is the most probable candidate. Known payloads for Numizmat are an ultrawide band radar and a TV camera, which means that it will most likely be used for rendezvous and proximity operations. In other words, it would need a target. The actual purpose of Numizmat remains unclear. The involvement of a company called NPP Advent may point to something involving lasers, but that's highly speculative.
Again, I'm just guessing. This may just as well be a completely different mission. The orbital behavior of the satellites may give us a clue, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
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I've never seen these designators before. Clearly two different satellites. Possibly, there will be some sort of interaction between them. My best guess right now is Numizmat, a CNIIHM project started in 2014.
Would this be the first time Numizmat has flown? Not sure if it's a one off satellite or if it'll be part of a family of satellites.
Also, what the heck is Numizmat? Looking at this thread, https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47851.0, it's not immediately obvious what it is. I imagine some sort of reconnaissance satellite, not sure if it'd be SAR, IR, or take 'normal" pictures.
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Would this be the first time Numizmat has flown? Not sure if it's a one off satellite or if it'll be part of a family of satellites
My understanding is it hasn't flown before, but there are few certainties in this business...
Also, what the heck is Numizmat? Looking at this thread, https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47851.0, it's not immediately obvious what it is. I imagine some sort of reconnaissance satellite, not sure if it'd be SAR, IR, or take 'normal" pictures.
As I explained in that thread, ultrawide band radars are more suggestive of rendezvous and proximity operations than remote sensing (because of their immunity from jamming and detection). Also, CNIIHM's core business seems to be ASAT/inspection missions.
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As I explained in that thread, ultrawide band radars are more suggestive of rendezvous and proximity operations than remote sensing (because of their immunity from jamming and detection). Also, CNIIHM's core business seems to be ASAT/inspection missions.
Could this be a similar payload to Kosmos-2558? That was supposedly an inspector satellite, potentially mirroring the orbit of USA 326. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/08/potential-inspector-soyuz-2-1v/
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Could this be a similar payload to Kosmos-2558? That was supposedly an inspector satellite, potentially mirroring the orbit of USA 326. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/08/potential-inspector-soyuz-2-1v/
No. Kosmos-2558 belongs to the Nivelir project. It is the third 14F150 satellite, built by NPO Lavochkin. Like its predecessors Kosmos-2519 and 2542, it probably carries a subsatellite, although it hasn't been released yet. The subsatellite presumably has the index 14F162 and is a product of CNIIHM. CNIIHM is the prime contractor for Nivelir, with NPO Lavochkin acting as a subcontractor.
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Are serials for Soyuz and Volga known?
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24-hour scrub.
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They're now talking about "an indefinite delay".
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Latest news now is that it's a 24-hour scrub after all. Same time tomorrow (apparently shortly after 19.00 UTC).
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In other words, it would need a target. The actual purpose of Numizmat remains unclear. The involvement of a company called NPP Advent may point to something involving lasers, but that's highly speculative.
Is it possible that it intends a very close inspection of USA 326?
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In other words, it would need a target. The actual purpose of Numizmat remains unclear. The involvement of a company called NPP Advent may point to something involving lasers, but that's highly speculative.
Is it possible that it intends a very close inspection of USA 326?
That's highly unlikely. USA 326 is already being shadowed by Kosmos-2558 (a 14F150 type satellite) and that in turn is likely to release a subsatellite (probably named 14F162) which could potentially make even closer inspections of USA 326. The two previous 14F150 satellites (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) also released such subsatellites. Kosmos-2519 deployed its subsatellite (Kosmos-2521) about two months after launch and Kosmos-2542 ejected its subsatellite (Kosmos-2543) less than two weeks after launch. Kosmos-2558 has not yet deployed anything after about 2.5 months in orbit, but that could happen any day. Even more worryingly, the two earlier subsatellites fired what the Pentagon interprets as ASAT projectiles when flying in close formation with other Russian satellites.
Judging by their military code names (14F164 and 14F172), Kosmos-2561 and 2562 are satellites of a different type. It is not inconceivable that they are part of another inspection and/or ASAT program (possibly Numizmat) and will perform rendezvous and proximity operations with each other, with one serving as a target for the other. But again, that's just a wild guess and wild guesses usually turn out to be wrong. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with these satellites after they reach orbit.
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A launch is expected to take place today at ~ 19:00 UTC from #Plesetsk cosmodrome. Soyuz 2.1v with Volga upper stage will launch a classified military payload, presumably two #MKA satellites (№1 and №2).
https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1582624371687858177
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That's highly unlikely. USA 326 is already being shadowed by Kosmos-2558 (a 14F150 type satellite) and that in turn is likely to release a subsatellite (probably named 14F162) which could potentially make even closer inspections of USA 326. The two previous 14F150 satellites (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) also released such subsatellites.
Extending that to its logical end, it's unlikely that this new launch will result in the payload being in the same plane as USA 326 and Kosmos 2558, and we probably shouldn't read anything into it that the launch time happens to be around the appropriate time?
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That's highly unlikely. USA 326 is already being shadowed by Kosmos-2558 (a 14F150 type satellite) and that in turn is likely to release a subsatellite (probably named 14F162) which could potentially make even closer inspections of USA 326. The two previous 14F150 satellites (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) also released such subsatellites.
Extending that to its logical end, it's unlikely that this new launch will result in the payload being in the same plane as USA 326 and Kosmos 2558, and we probably shouldn't read anything into it that the launch time happens to be around the appropriate time?
I hadn't bothered to look into that, so thank you for pointing that out. That's definitely interesting (and a bit worrying too). Just one question: if they're aiming for that specific orbital plane, wouldn't today's launch time be different from yesterday's (it doesn't seem to have changed based on the available information)? Or to put it differently: would the satellites also have ended up in that orbital plane if they had been launched around 19.00 UTC yesterday?
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I hadn't bothered to look into that, so thank you for pointing that out. That's definitely interesting (and a bit worrying too). Just one question: if they're aiming for that specific orbital plane, wouldn't today's launch time be different from yesterday's (it doesn't seem to have changed based on the available information)? Or to put it differently: would the satellites also have ended up in that orbital plane if they had been launched around 19.00 UTC yesterday?
It's still in the middle of their launch window (about 19:25, I think), the optimal time shifted by a few minutes but still within it, if that is indeed the goal. Can Soyuz 2.1 do RAAN steering, or does it have to be launched precisely at the time the launch point passes through the target plane?
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Can Soyuz 2.1 do RAAN steering?
Not that I'm aware of.
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Another scrub. No news yet on the next attempt.
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Latest news is that there will be another attempt tomorrow.
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Orbital Launch no.141 of 2022
MKA №1,2,3 | Russian Space Forces | Oct 18 | 1900 UTC
Russian Space forces of the division of MoD to launch a triplet of small reconnaissance from #Plesetsk cosmodrome on the lighter #Soyuz version, the Soyuz-2.1v with Volga upper stage.
https://twitter.com/SpaceIntellige3/status/1582830068497231872
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Orbital Launch no.141 of 2022
MKA №1,2,3 | Russian Space Forces | Oct 18 | 1900 UTC
Russian Space forces of the division of MoD to launch a triplet of small reconnaissance from #Plesetsk cosmodrome on the lighter #Soyuz version, the Soyuz-2.1v with Volga upper stage.
https://twitter.com/SpaceIntellige3/status/1582830068497231872
The mission carries just two payloads. We don't know if they are reconnaissance satellites and if they were manufactured by VNIIEM (as claimed in the infographic). MKA 1, 2 and 3 were mentioned in a presentation by VNIIEM last June and were then scheduled for launch in the second half of this year, but it's not clear if they have anything to do with this particular mission.
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The launch has been rescheduled for October 21, same time. Doesn't that place it out of the window to reach the orbital plane of USA 326?
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Soyuz 2.1v
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Delay to October 21...
https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1583100307768508416
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A story that has been developing this week: the launch of a Russian Soyuz-2.1v from Plesetsk with a classified military payload has now been delayed for 3 straight days.
With Soyuz's extensive heritage, a scrub is very rare. 3 in a row? Unheard of.
https://twitter.com/TGMetsFan98/status/1583208751448088578
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A story that has been developing this week: the launch of a Russian Soyuz-2.1v from Plesetsk with a classified military payload has now been delayed for 3 straight days.
With Soyuz's extensive heritage, a scrub is very rare. 3 in a row? Unheard of.
That's a really bad take by Thomas right there.
First, we are not privy as to the cause of the continued scrubs. In fact, they might not even be scrubs at all, in the sense of stopping the launch attempt after it was initiated, but merely rescheduling of the launch date after more time is deemed necessary to fix whatever was wrong on the first day. Or they might be payload- or range-related constaints. They might of course have to do with the vehicle after all, but we just don't have that information to claim "3 scrubs in a row".
But also, the 2.1v is not really very related to the Semyorka family as he claims by pointing to "Soyuz's extensive heritage". As we all know, it doesn't even have the side boosters that are the family's keepstake. The core stage is completely different, even in shape, and uses the recycled NK-33 engine from the N1 program. That some tooling and diameters are repurposed from Semyorka-style LVs is hardly indicative of "heritage". The second stage is more "R7-standard", but then again we have no indication that's the source of the trouble. Ironically, GSE is the most "heritage" aspect of the 2.1v, being interchangable for it and the other Soyuz variants - of course, the causes for the delay might have nothing to do with the ground side.
Is it rare to see a Russian launch have seemingly continuous day-to-day delays? Yes. Does this have anything to do with the R7 family? Probably not. Is this "unheard of"? Don't be silly: even a truly "heritage" rocket like the 2.1a (ST-A) suffered two back-to-back launch scrubs (due to weather, which cannot be ruled out in this case either) followed by an IMU failure prompting replacement, as recently as 2016, during the Sentinel-1B+Microscope campaign.
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Is this rocket still using those 1970s manufactured engines? How many of those engines are left does anybody know?
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Is this rocket still using those 1970s manufactured engines?
Yes.
How many of those engines are left does anybody know?
It has never been publicly disclosed.
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Is this rocket still using those 1970s manufactured engines? How many of those engines are left does anybody know?
The NK-33 that powers the Soyuz-2.1v first stage was to be the powerplant for the first stage of the N1F, an improved version of the N1 moon rocket, but the cancelation of the N1 program in 1974 caused N1F development to be shelved (the first two completed N1Fs were scrapped without ever being launched, and four more N1Fs under construction were scrapped as well), leaving the NK-33 without an SLV application until the 2010s, when it was chosen for use on the first stage of the Soyuz-2.1v and also modified by Aerojet Rocketdyne for use on the first stage of the Antares 100. The second stage of the Soyuz-2.1v is powered by the newer RD-0124, which was envisaged after the USSR's collapse. Therefore, the Soyuz-2.1v only partly uses 1970s rocket engines.
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Looks like the Soyuz-2.1v has lifted off.
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Liftoff time 19.20.15 UTC.
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Soyuz-2-1v LAUNCH from Plesetsk at 1920 UTC carrying two Russian military satellites
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1583545146368401408
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Report on NK indicates only one satellite put in orbit: Kosmos 2561
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Report on NK indicates only one satellite put in orbit: Kosmos 2561
The thread on the NK forum regarding the Kosmos 2561 doesn't include Kosmos 2562 in its title.
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Report on NK indicates only one satellite put in orbit: Kosmos 2561
The thread on the NK forum regarding the Kosmos 2561 doesn't include Kosmos 2562 in its title.
Could be that 2562 is a subsatellite to be ejected later.
Do you have a handy link to the NK thread?
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Source: https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20221021237-oHTJF.html
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Report on NK indicates only one satellite put in orbit: Kosmos 2561
The thread on the NK forum regarding the Kosmos 2561 doesn't include Kosmos 2562 in its title.
Could be that 2562 is a subsatellite to be ejected later.
Do you have a handy link to the NK thread?
https://forum.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/index.php?topic=21322.0
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On October 21, 2022, at 22:20 Moscow time, the light launch vehicle (LV) Soyuz-2.1v / #Volga and two (SC) launched from the #Plesetsk Cosmodrome, All pre launch operations and LV launch were in normal mode the spacecraft will be assigned as Kosmos"2561" and "2562"
https://twitter.com/nkknspace/status/1583545354976301056
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Do you have a handy link to the NK thread?
https://forum.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/index.php?topic=21322.100
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This was the orbital position of USA 326 at 19.30 UTC, about 10 minutes after launch (and Kosmos-2558 is currently trailing it by about 30 minutes). Wasn't the orbital plane more or less over Plesetsk at the time of launch?
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2 satellites finally:
https://tass.ru/kosmos/16125951 (https://tass.ru/kosmos/16125951)
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One first object:
2022-137A/54109 in 407 x 420 km x 97.08°
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and now a second one:
2022-137B/54110 in 407 x 419 km x 97.08°
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and presumably Volga:
2022-137C/54111 in 188 x 403 km x 97.08°
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and presumably Volga:
2022-137C/54111 in 188 x 403 km x 97.08°
Volga was to have a targeted deorbit to drop in the Southern Pacific Ocean and the second stage was to have remain in initial low perigee parking orbit.
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The orbital mechanics experts may have to correct me on this, but it looks to me like the satellites may well have ended up in the orbital plane of USA 326 and Kosmos-2558. Interesting to compare perigee/apogee + inclination:
Kosmos-2561/2562:
407x420 km 97.08°
407x419 km 97.08°
Kosmos-2558:
442.9x457.1 km 97.2°
USA 326:
496x523.6 km 97.4°
So are we going to see rendezvous and proximity operations between the newly launched pair and Kosmos-2558 (which in turn may be carrying a subsatellite with an ASAT projectile like the two previous 14F150 satellites)? I'm not going to speculate on any potential scenarios involving USA 326 itself. God knows what they're up to this time.
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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1583590325326516224
CelesTrak has GP data for 3 objects from a Russian classified launch (2022-137) atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Oct 21 at 1920 UTC: russianspaceweb.com/cosmos-2561.ht….
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Now we have 4 objects (3 in the circular orbit, one elliptical).
So did both Soyuz stage 3 and Volga remain in orbit, despite the NOTAMs?
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After three days of delays, a Soyuz-2.1v has lifted off from Plesetsk carrying a pair of classified satellites.
Like the previous Soyuz-2.1v, the same orbital plane as an American spy satellite may have been targeted.
https://twitter.com/TGMetsFan98/status/1583586921938579456
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Soyuz-2-1V launch from Plesetsk at 1920 UTC now is associated with three objects in a 407 x 419 km x 97.1 deg sun-sync orbit with 10:58 local time orbital plane, and one object in 190 x 399 km.
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1583628238055964673
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https://tass.com/science/1526037
Soyuz-2.1b rocket carrying two military satellites blasts off from Plesetsk spaceport
The satellites were named Kosmos-2561 and Kosmos-2562
MOSCOW, October 22. /TASS/. Russia’s Aerospace Forces launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket from the Plesetsk spaceport in the Arkhangelsk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
"A Soyuz-2.1b light-class carrier rocket carrying two satellites was launched from the Plesetsk spaceport on the Russian Defense Ministry’s mission. The satellites were named Kosmos-2561 and Kosmos-2562," the statement reads.
A light-class Angara-1.2 rocket carrying a satellite was launched on the Russian Defense Ministry’s mission from the Plesetsk spaceport on October 15.
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Launch images from the Russian MoD.
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https://tass.com/science/1526037
Soyuz-2.1b rocket carrying two military satellites blasts off from Plesetsk spaceport
The satellites were named Kosmos-2561 and Kosmos-2562
MOSCOW, October 22. /TASS/. Russia’s Aerospace Forces launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket from the Plesetsk spaceport in the Arkhangelsk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
"A Soyuz-2.1b light-class carrier rocket carrying two satellites was launched from the Plesetsk spaceport on the Russian Defense Ministry’s mission. The satellites were named Kosmos-2561 and Kosmos-2562," the statement reads.
A light-class Angara-1.2 rocket carrying a satellite was launched on the Russian Defense Ministry’s mission from the Plesetsk spaceport on October 15.
2-1v ;)
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Video of launch preparations and the launch itself on Zvezda TV:
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/202210221011-PR5jc.html
More footage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U_cp8RNxyE
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The official launch announcement of the Ministry of Defense was unusually terse, mentioning only the fact that the launch had taken place and the official names of the two satellites. Missing were standard phrases like "the satellites were placed into the intended orbit", "stable telemetry is being received from the satellites" and "on-board systems are functioning normally". But we probably shouldn't read too much into that. Everything seems to have gone according to plan.
Meanwhile, analysis of the Two Line Elements by Igor Lisov shows that the satellites are not in the same orbital plane as USA 326 and Kosmos-2558. Judging by the right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN), there appears to be a significant difference between the planes.
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Soyuz 2.1v with two military satellites (presumably, #MKA №1 and №2) finally launched from Plesetsk yesterday evening. Here's the video by Roscosmos:
https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1583706620806459392
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Now we have 4 objects (3 in the circular orbit, one elliptical).
So did both Soyuz stage 3 and Volga remain in orbit, despite the NOTAMs?
The latest Celestrak data are attached. The question now is if Object D is the Volga upper stage, an unannounced satellite or a piece of debris. The Volga is usually de-orbited over the southern Pacific Ocean several hours after launch and is not always catalogued. The Ministry of Defense has not (yet) issued its usual statement on the de-orbiting of the stage, which could point to a problem with the maneuver.
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There are only 3 objects left. According to Celestrak, object D was the Volga.
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There are only 3 objects left. According to Celestrak, object D was the Volga.
It's a bit strange as object D was reported in a 409.5 x 419.4 km orbit on Oct 22 and was declared decayed the same day
<EPOCH>2022-10-22T16:48:39.461472
<MEAN_MOTION>15.50779296
<ECCENTRICITY>0.00072770
<INCLINATION>97.0770
<RA_OF_ASC_NODE>15.7659
<ARG_OF_PERICENTER>262.8798
<MEAN_ANOMALY>97.1627
<NORAD_CAT_ID>54112
<ELEMENT_SET_NO>999
<REV_AT_EPOCH>13
<BSTAR>0.00027188000000
<MEAN_MOTION_DOT>0.00015594
<MEAN_MOTION_DDOT>0.0000000000000
<SEMIMAJOR_AXIS>6792.587
<PERIOD>92.857
<APOAPSIS>419.394
<PERIAPSIS>409.509
<OBJECT_TYPE>ROCKET BODY
<RCS_SIZE>
<COUNTRY_CODE>CIS
<LAUNCH_DATE>2022-10-21
<SITE>PKMTR
<DECAY_DATE>2022-10-22
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There are only 3 objects left. According to Celestrak, object D was the Volga.
It's a bit strange as object D was reported in a 409.5 x 419.4 km orbit on Oct 22 and was declared decayed the same day
<EPOCH>2022-10-22T16:48:39.461472
<MEAN_MOTION>15.50779296
<ECCENTRICITY>0.00072770
<INCLINATION>97.0770
<RA_OF_ASC_NODE>15.7659
<ARG_OF_PERICENTER>262.8798
<MEAN_ANOMALY>97.1627
<NORAD_CAT_ID>54112
<ELEMENT_SET_NO>999
<REV_AT_EPOCH>13
<BSTAR>0.00027188000000
<MEAN_MOTION_DOT>0.00015594
<MEAN_MOTION_DDOT>0.0000000000000
<SEMIMAJOR_AXIS>6792.587
<PERIOD>92.857
<APOAPSIS>419.394
<PERIAPSIS>409.509
<OBJECT_TYPE>ROCKET BODY
<RCS_SIZE>
<COUNTRY_CODE>CIS
<LAUNCH_DATE>2022-10-21
<SITE>PKMTR
<DECAY_DATE>2022-10-22
My first impression was that A and D might have been doubled. I had wrote that here.
But then I changed the post, when I had researched more deeply at Celestrak.
Doubts remain, we may never know.
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There are only 3 objects left. According to Celestrak, object D was the Volga.
It's a bit strange as object D was reported in a 409.5 x 419.4 km orbit on Oct 22 and was declared decayed the same day
Looks like it was de-orbited, just like the earlier Volga stages. Usually the Ministry of Defense issues a statement on the Volga de-orbit burn, but for some reason that didn't happen this time.
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Obj. 54111 COSMOS 2561 & 2562 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 03, 2022 UTC 17h37mn ± 32h
https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1586470211674415106
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Update: obj. 54111 COSMOS 2561 & 2562 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 03, 2022 UTC 16h46mn ± 20h
https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1587160355469512705
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Update: obj. 54111 COSMOS 2561 & 2562 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 03, 2022 UTC 13h27mn ± 6h
https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1587842398402613253
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Update: obj. 54111 COSMOS 2561 & 2562 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 03, 2022 UTC 12h36mn ± 2h
https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1588093337663217664
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Update: obj. 54111 COSMOS 2561 & 2562 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 03, 2022 UTC 13h38mn ± 1h
https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1588150928426901504
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The Kosmos-2561/2562 pair has now been in orbit for about 2.5 months. Kosmos-2561 has gradually decayed from its initial 407x420 km orbit to a 401x413 km orbit and has so far not performed any orbit corrections (see attachment 1 from Celestrak). Kosmos-2562 has carried out three burns to slightly lower its orbit, two in late October and another in mid-November. There is also a small spike in the semi-major axis just before December 14, but that may have been due to inaccuracies in the data (see attachment 2). The satellite is currently being tracked in a 377x395 km orbit.
Space-Track.Org gives the radar cross section of Kosmos-2561 as “large” (more than 1 m2) and that of Kosmos-2562 as “small” (between 0.1 and 1 m2). The fact that these are not two identical satellites is also evident from the fact that they have different military designators (14F164 and 14F172), which were leaked by an insider on the NK forum shortly before launch and had never been seen before. European radio amateurs have picked up signals from Kosmos-2561 in the S-band at 2280 MHz. This is the same frequency used by the so-called inspector satellites, but it is not necessarily a sign of commonality. The S-band is commonly used for downlinking telemetry.
The purpose of these satellites remains a mystery and all we can do is try and make some educated guesses. It is logical to assume that the two satellites were launched together because their missions are somehow interrelated. Having maneuvered to a slightly lower orbit, Kosmos-2562 orbits the Earth slightly faster than Kosmos-2561 and regularly overtakes it, with the two occasionally passing each other at a relatively close range. This may have been done deliberately to allow them to regularly interact with one another, albeit at a distance. Keeping them close together in exactly the same orbit would require much more fuel.
As I have speculated earlier in the thread, there is a possibility that the satellites are part of a project named Numizmat, initiated in 2014 with a contract awarded by the Ministry of Defense to CNIIHM. Online procurement documentation related to this project makes it possible to conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty that one of the payloads is an ultra wideband (UWB) radar developed by the Sedakov Scientific Research Institute of Measuring Systems (NIIIS) and most likely designed to detect other objects in orbit. More on that in the Numizmat thread here:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47851.0
Articles published by NIIIS (some of the authors of which have signed procurement documents for Numizmat) discuss the need to study how the propagation of such UWB radar signals is affected by the ionosphere. In 2014 NIIIS published a drawing of a satellite equipped with a so-called “spectrum analyzer” designed to do just that (see attachment 3). However, this was published before NIIIS was assigned to Numizmat in early 2015, so it is not necessarily representative of the satellite’s ultimate design.
If Kosmos-2561 and 2562 belong to Numizmat, one could carry the radar and the other could serve as a target to reflect the radar signals or analyze the signals itself. The signals would probably have to travel some distance through the ionosphere for a proper analysis to be made, which could explain why the two satellites pass one another at considerable distances. The timing of this mission during a period of increased solar activity may not be coincidental because the ionosphere is now more susceptible to disturbances, especially in the polar regions, which the satellites regularly pass in their 97° inclination orbits.
Right now Numizmat looks like the best candidate to explain this mission from the known Russian military space projects that has not yet seen a flight earlier. Also, with the project having started in 2014, its first mission is certainly overdue. But, of course, Kosmos-2561 and 2562 might just as well be part of a totally different project that has not yet been uncovered.
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twitter.com/planet4589/status/1656145400426790912
The Kosmos-2562 satellite, launched in Oct 2022, appears to have a mission to carry out proximity operations with the retired Resurs-P3 satellite, whose orbit was lowered shortly after K2562 was launched. [Thanks to a source for the tip to look at this.]
Here is the height graph
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1656145644262760449
And here is a graph of the separation between the two sats
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This raises the question if Kosmos-2561 is on a similar mission, even though it appears to be of a different type than Kosmos-2562 (judging from their designators 14F164 and 14F172). Kosmos-2561 does not seem to be flying in the immediate vicinity of any other satellite, but its orbital plane is currently very close to that of Resurs-P2, as can be seen in the attached screenshots from N2YO.com made today. Kosmos-2561 is in a lower orbit though:
Kosmos-2561: 392x409 km, 97.05°
Resurs-P2 : 432x443 km, 97.18°
Today Kosmos-2561 is about 10 minutes ahead of Resurs-P2 and that distance will grow in the coming days because of its lower, faster orbit. It will catch up again with Resurs-P2 in about a week, with the 10-day predictions on N2YO.com showing the two making a simultaneous pass over Western Europe late on May 17.
Of course, all this may just be a coincidence. At any rate, if Kosmos-2561 is on a mission to inspect Resurs-P2, it is doing so at distances of no closer than 30-40 km, somewhat comparable to the range from which Kosmos-2558 is spying on USA 326. Kosmos-2562, on the other hand, seems to have come to within less than a kilometer from Resurs-P3 on several occasions.
Like Resurs-P3, Resurs-P2 is no longer operational. Both satellites seem to have suffered problems with the systems needed to downlink imagery, but other on-board systems may still be functional. For instance, Resurs-P3 still had a functioning propulsion system last November, when it lowered its orbit to position itself for the proximity operations with Kosmos-2562. Resurs-P2 has not maneuvered in recent months. Kosmos-2561 has so far made only two burns, a very small one in late January and a somewhat larger one in early April. Both raised its orbit, but whether they were in any way designed to optimize observations of Resurs-P2 is hard to say.
With Kosmos-2562 clearly involved in rendezvous and proximity operations with Resurs-P3, it is the fifth type of Russian satellite to engage in that sort of activity in the past decade or so, the others being 14F150 (built by NPO Lavochkin), 14F153, 14F157 and 14F162 (most likely built by CNIIHM).
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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1656486486223773696
And you can see when the closest approaches should occur at: https://celestrak.org/SOCRATES/graph-tca-range-speed.php?CATNR=41956,42771&MAXRANGE=0. Note this is based on SGP4 propagation, so it will be interesting to see how that evolves as maneuvering occurs.
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Kosmos-2562 left the immediate vicinity of Resurs P3 last July and has not made any orbit corrections since. Its orbit is now quickly decaying. It may have run out of propellant after the lengthy rendezvous and proximity operations with Resurs P3.
Meanwhile, Kosmos-2561 has become quite active in the past two weeks after nearly six months of orbital decay. It has raised its orbit four times since September 14, increasing its average altitude by more than 30 km. Before that it had made just two orbit adjustments, a small one in late January and a bigger one in early April.
According to data from Celestrak, Kosmos-2561 is now in a 407x424 km orbit with an inclination of 97.05°. This is very close to the altitude and inclination of Resurs P1 (409x427 km, 97.06°), but the orbital planes of the two satellites are separated by about 32°, excluding any possibility of a rendezvous. It is possible, however, that Kosmos-2561 is headed for Resurs P2, which is now being tracked in a 422x432 km orbit with an inclination of 97.18°. Their orbital planes are spaced apart just a little over 1°. Like Resurs P3 and P1, Resurs P2 is no longer operational, but it could still serve as a rendezvous target for Kosmos-2561, just like Resurs P3 did for Kosmos-2562.
The recent maneuvers of Kosmos-2561 may also be totally unrelated to Resurs P2, but it’s still worth keeping an eye on the satellite’s next moves.
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Kosmos 2562 will enter the earth's atmosphere tomorrow.
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https://spacenews.com/leolabs-data-shows-on-orbit-maneuvers-by-russian-satellites/#:~:text=Cosmos%2D2562%20is%20a%20Russian,17.
LeoLabs data shows on-orbit maneuvers by Russian satellites
Sandra Erwin
November 6, 2023
WASHINGTON — The space tracking firm LeoLabs over the past year tracked two Russian satellites performing rendezvous and proximity operations. These satellites — Resurs-P3 and Cosmos-2562 — conducted maneuvers that offer a glimpse of the potential hazards that U.S. and allied spacecraft could face in low Earth orbit, the company said.
Resurs-P3 — a Russian Earth observation satellite — performed a large maneuver in November 2022 after years of inactivity, and approached the Russian military satellite Cosmos-2562, according to a LeoLabs briefing.
The maneuver by Resurs-P3 “placed it in an entirely new orbit shared by Russian assets with non-publicly disclosed payloads,” said the briefing. “Based on the approaches observed by LeoLabs, it’s highly likely that Cosmos-2562 has an electro-optical payload and has collected high-resolution imagery of Resurs-P3.”
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Here's a short YouTube clip showing Kosmos-2562 flying behind Resurs-P3 last June.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwTsEVcl9U8