NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
Commercial and US Government Launch Vehicles => NGIS (Formerly Orbital ATK) - Antares/Cygnus Section => Topic started by: JEF_300 on 02/24/2022 08:44 pm
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I feel it should be stated at this point that it's very likely that Russia has already occupied Yuzhmash.
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I feel it should be stated at this point that it's very likely that Russia has already occupied Yuzhmash.
I doubt it. Dnipro was probably 100 km from Russian forces. There were air or missile attacks near Dnipro last night. It may, probably will, happen, but I would be surprised if it has already happened. It took Patton a week or so to go as far to relieve Bastogne.
- Ed Kyle
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I feel it should be stated at this point that it's very likely that Russia has already occupied Yuzhmash.
I doubt it. Dnipro was probably 100 km from Russian forces. There were air or missile attacks near Dnipro last night. It may, probably will, happen, but I would be surprised if it has already happened. It took Patton a week or so to go as far to relieve Bastogne.
- Ed Kyle
For some reason I was under the impression that the HQ was in Dnipro, and the factory was further east. My bad.
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I feel it should be stated at this point that it's very likely that Russia has already occupied Yuzhmash.
I doubt it. Dnipro was probably 100 km from Russian forces. There were air or missile attacks near Dnipro last night. It may, probably will, happen, but I would be surprised if it has already happened. It took Patton a week or so to go as far to relieve Bastogne.
- Ed Kyle
For some reason I was under the impression that the HQ was in Dnipro, and the factory was further east. My bad.
The most immediate threat is probably to the port of Mykolaiv, from where the Antares stages are shipped.
- Ed Kyle
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I haven't seen any other sources for this so hopefully not true. But possibly just a matter of time even if not.
[zubenelgenubi: false report]
https://mobile.twitter.com/JURISTnews/status/1496847074465357825
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Hm, I had hoped Russia wanted to re-integrate Ukrainan suppliers into their chain, so they'd have incentive to take it intact. But alas. :(
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Hm, I had hoped Russia wanted to re-integrate Ukrainan suppliers into their chain, so they'd have incentive to take it intact. But alas. :(
There is a disconnect regarding that between Roscosmos with the MoD, the Union State forces and the Kremlin.
Edit: the reports are fake news.
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Schrödinger's rocket factory...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Naelsia_19/status/1497230110948302866
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The fog of war...
Btw, move this into the general Antares thread please.
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Schrödinger's rocket factory...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Naelsia_19/status/1497230110948302866
Only some nearby warehouses and storage bunkers for military armaments were targeted. Rocket factories were untouched
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By attacking Kherson where the Dnieper River flows into the Black Sea, Russian forces have presumably cut off river transportation, which would include any shipments from Dnirpo like Antares first stages. The New York Times included a report this morning that the city had been captured which would mean the Russians have crossed the river. Hate to say it, but if the report is true and if the Russians hold west of the river, strategically the war's over.
- Ed Kyle
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There is something like 5,000 employees supporting this rocket factory in Ukraine which has been building Antares stages. These talented people are now in harms way. One way to support these people is to provide work visas in Europe and the U.S. Northrop Grumman, if you are listening, please consider working with the U.S. State Department to offer work visas to as many of these employees as you can.
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Northrop Grumman, if you are listening, please consider working with the U.S. State Department to offer work visas to as many of these employees as you can.
They aren't going to produce them in the US.
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https://twitter.com/YuzhnoyeSDO/status/1497675978973220865?s=20&t=1sCFFQFDiqbzsjXCZMf_Og
Assuming this is indeed the official account, this is great news.
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They aren't going to produce them in the US.
Jim, that is intentionally misleading.
I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently. Bringing over as many of these Aerospace workers over as possible would be the right thing to do if they want to leave. It would be humanitarian, without a doubt. Further, it would deprive an adversary of conscripting these people to harm our National Security.
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https://twitter.com/YuzhnoyeSDO/status/1497675978973220865?s=20&t=1sCFFQFDiqbzsjXCZMf_Og (https://twitter.com/YuzhnoyeSDO/status/1497675978973220865?s=20&t=1sCFFQFDiqbzsjXCZMf_Og)
Assuming this is indeed the official account, this is great news.
Their official social media account profiles are in the top right corner of their website and yes that is their official twitter account.
Their official websites for English are:
https://yuzhnoye.com/en/home/ (https://yuzhnoye.com/en/home/)
https://yuzhmash.com/en/ (https://yuzhmash.com/en/)
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I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently.
Few for foreigners.
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I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently.
Few for foreigners.
Also, right now at least, only women and children are allowed to leave Ukraine. But I agree with the idea of accepting refugees who can escape this invasion. The problem is that Russian forces are on the verge of surrounding big swaths of the country.
- Ed Kyle
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Scott Manley's take:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V-lj-jCqe8
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I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently.
Few for foreigners.
Wars change rules. Without foreigners the USA wouldn’t have a rocket industry
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Without foreigners the USA wouldn't exist. :P
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Let's stay out of general politics, thanks
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I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently.
Few for foreigners.
Wars change rules. Without foreigners the USA wouldn’t have a rocket industry
This isn’t going to change the rules. And wrong on the second sentence. The US had a rocket industry before the Germans arrived
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I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently.
Few for foreigners.
Wars change rules. Without foreigners the USA wouldn’t have a rocket industry
This isn’t going to change the rules. And wrong on the second sentence. The US had a rocket industry before the Germans arrived
Yes, Robert Goddard had built a rocket for the army, smaller but almost identical in operation to the V-2. Even Von Braun said we had a rocket, but didn't make it bigger.
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Yes, Robert Goddard had built a rocket for the army, smaller but almost identical in operation to the V-2. Even Von Braun said we had a rocket, but didn't make it bigger.
No, there was JPL, Aerojet and Martin.
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Yes, Robert Goddard had built a rocket for the army, smaller but almost identical in operation to the V-2. Even Von Braun said we had a rocket, but didn't make it bigger.
No, there was JPL, Aerojet and Martin.
Sure, but the vital contributions of emigres is impossible to dismiss. North American Aviation started Rocketdyne with Bill Bollay, whose family immigrated from Germany, and V-2 men from Peenemunde like Dieter Huzel and Walther Riedel. It also was one of the U.S. companies that got V-2 engines as a starting point. Convair's Karel Bossart, the "Father of the Atlas", was born in Belgium. Kraft Ehricke, who worked at Convair and designed Centaur, was another Peenemunde man. Not to mention the Ft. Bliss, later Huntsville, von Braun team's contributions. Elon Musk was born in Pretoria, South Africa. I'm sure there are many, many more examples.
- Ed Kyle
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Yes, Robert Goddard had built a rocket for the army, smaller but almost identical in operation to the V-2. Even Von Braun said we had a rocket, but didn't make it bigger.
No, there was JPL, Aerojet and Martin.
This is a quote out of Wikipedia:
"Nevertheless, in 1963, von Braun, reflecting on the history of rocketry, said of Goddard: "His rockets ... may have been rather crude by present-day standards, but they blazed the trail and incorporated many features used in our most modern rockets and space vehicles".[86] He once recalled that "Goddard's experiments in liquid fuel saved us years of work, and enabled us to perfect the V-2 years before it would have been possible."[87] After World War II von Braun reviewed Goddard's patents and believed they contained enough technical information to build a large missile.[88]
Three features developed by Goddard appeared in the V-2: (1) turbopumps were used to inject fuel into the combustion chamber; (2) gyroscopically controlled vanes in the nozzle stabilized the rocket until external vanes in the air could do so; and (3) excess alcohol was fed in around the combustion chamber walls, so that a blanket of evaporating gas protected the engine walls from the combustion heat. [89]
The Germans had been watching Goddard's progress before the war and became convinced that large, liquid fuel rockets were feasible. General Walter Dornberger, head of the V-2 project, used the idea that they were in a race with the U.S. and that Goddard had "disappeared" (to work with the Navy) as a way to persuade Hitler to raise the priority of the V-2."
So, Wikipedia says Goddard was watched and copied by the Germans. I'm saying we had Robert Goddard's work, but our government didn't pay a whole lot of attention to him. We didn't need the Germans, we had our own Von Braun.
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I absolutely do think It is within the realm of possibility that a special immigration allowance could happen.
This is a huge event. The world is changing. A lot of things are up in the air, now. For instance, Japan now debating developing nuclear weapons, which might have been unthinkable 10-20 years ago. So special immigration permits for natsec-relevant professionals from Ukraine is not at all beyond the realm of possibility.
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So, Wikipedia says Goddard was watched and copied by the Germans. I'm saying we had Robert Goddard's work, but our government didn't pay a whole lot of attention to him.
Goddard was a loner and would not share the results of his work JPL tried to talk with him and he was tightlipped.
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I absolutely do think It is within the realm of possibility that a special immigration allowance could happen.
This is a huge event. The world is changing. A lot of things are up in the air, now. For instance, Japan now debating developing nuclear weapons, which might have been unthinkable 10-20 years ago. So special immigration permits for natsec-relevant professionals from Ukraine is not at all beyond the realm of possibility.
Why? They really aren't needed.
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Would deny them to Russia.
Anyway, there is a huge range of possibilities right now. That is one of them. I can’t say it has less than a, say, 10% chance of happening.
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I did not ask NGIS to start making Antares stages in the United States, so don't put words in my mouth. Northrop has over 5,245 job openings currently.
Few for foreigners.
Wars change rules. Without foreigners the USA wouldn’t have a rocket industry
This isn’t going to change the rules. And wrong on the second sentence. The US had a rocket industry before the Germans arrived
The bold edit is mine - and on this point I agree with Jim. Bringing Ukrainians into the US would be a humanitarian move worthy of consideration, but it will not be for filling NG's job openings. I have no idea how many of those positions require a security clearance, but rules for gaining said clearance will not change - and citizens of foreign countries (especially non-NATO countries) do not get them. While exceptions can always be made, they would be for exceptional - generational - people, not for some refugee that used to work in someone's rocket factory.
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I’ve known many foreign nationals working in aerospace, even at NASA.
Security clearance is one thing, but these professionals wouldn’t have been able to get US security clearance while living in Ukraine, either, and NG needed some of them at hand for Antares integration and/or launch before.
If security clearance wasn’t necessary for Ukrainians to build Antares first stages in Ukraine, it wouldn’t be needed for Ukrainians building Antares stages in the US, either.
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If security clearance wasn’t necessary for Ukrainians to build Antares first stages in Ukraine, it wouldn’t be needed for Ukrainians building Antares stages in the US, either.
It is not security clearance. ITAR and export control is a different bag of worms and there are road blocks.
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If security clearance wasn’t necessary for Ukrainians to build Antares first stages in Ukraine, it wouldn’t be needed for Ukrainians building Antares stages in the US, either.
It is not security clearance. ITAR and export control is a different bag of worms and there are road blocks.
All solvable with changes in regulation, approval of special green cards or other procedures.
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If security clearance wasn’t necessary for Ukrainians to build Antares first stages in Ukraine, it wouldn’t be needed for Ukrainians building Antares stages in the US, either.
It is not security clearance. ITAR and export control is a different bag of worms and there are road blocks.
All solvable with changes in regulation, approval of special green cards or other procedures.
Which is not going to happen and likely become more restrictive.
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I’ve known many foreign nationals working in aerospace, even at NASA.
Security clearance is one thing, but these professionals wouldn’t have been able to get US security clearance while living in Ukraine, either, and NG needed some of them at hand for Antares integration and/or launch before.
If security clearance wasn’t necessary for Ukrainians to build Antares first stages in Ukraine, it wouldn’t be needed for Ukrainians building Antares stages in the US, either.
Context matters... I was responding to the question of whether Ukrainian refugees could fill the existing NG job openings. That answer is - in most probable cases - no. If you just want to recreate a Ukrainian production line in the US, then special waivers could probably be granted for some line working refugees fairly quickly (given a compelling need, which I don't think we have). It won't happen for 'run of the mill' workers, but senior engineers and supervisors - the guys that can make it work - could get in. Tooling a factory and sourcing parts is another question, and may be where ITAR comes into play. Getting a visa to support a work project (ie: launch) is simple - we do things like that all over the world everyday.
I agree with your premise - foreign nationals already work here, and it seems like an easy stretch to bring in refugee workers and start up an assembly line. But never underestimate our government's ability to gum up the works!
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Agreed, Va!
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I agree with your premise - foreign nationals already work here,
not in ITAR industries.
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NG tweeted that they have alternative LV options from ULA, SpaceX and Blue.
With 2 Antares on hand so not likely to need alternative LV for at least 2 years. Plenty of time to see how things panout with Ukraine war.
Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk
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NG tweeted that they have alternative LV options from ULA, SpaceX and Blue.
With 2 Antares on hand so not likely to need alternative LV for at least 2 years. Plenty of time to see how things panout with Ukraine war.
Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk
Can you link? I haven't been able to find this tweet.
- Ed Kyle
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NG tweeted that they have alternative LV options from ULA, SpaceX and Blue.
With 2 Antares on hand so not likely to need alternative LV for at least 2 years. Plenty of time to see how things panout with Ukraine war.
Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk
Can you link? I haven't been able to find this tweet.
- Ed Kyle
I definitely saw but can't find it. May of been tweet from somebody else quoting what NG said.
Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk
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Orbital Sciences was lucky to have the RD-181 replace the NK-33 as the powerplant for the first stage of the Antares due to the NK-33 being an antiquated rocket engine. It is possible that Antares rocket could one day use the Blue Origin BE-4 or an advanced Aerojet liquid-fuel rocket motor if Northrop Grumman decides to end dependence on NPO Energomash for rocket engines to power the Antares rocket.
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The current situation leaves Antares with challenges with both the engines and S1 tank. Engines are just part of the issue.
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Orbital Sciences was lucky to have the RD-181 replace the NK-33 as the powerplant for the first stage of the Antares due to the NK-33 being an antiquated rocket engine. It is possible that Antares rocket could one day use the Blue Origin BE-4 or an advanced Aerojet liquid-fuel rocket motor if Northrop Grumman decides to end dependence on NPO Energomash for rocket engines to power the Antares rocket.
Over ULA's dead corpse will NG get BE-4s, they fought Orbital Sciences tooth and nail from getting RD-180s forced them to go with RD-181.
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BE-4 is a really awkward size for Antares anyway. You're replacing a stage with ~4000 kN of thrust using a ~2500 kN engine or two; good luck.
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Orbital Sciences was lucky to have the RD-181 replace the NK-33 as the powerplant for the first stage of the Antares due to the NK-33 being an antiquated rocket engine.
The Russians continue to use their remaining NK-33's as the first stage engine of Soyuz-2-1v. They seem to be happy with their performance.
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Orbital Sciences was lucky to have the RD-181 replace the NK-33 as the powerplant for the first stage of the Antares due to the NK-33 being an antiquated rocket engine.
The Russians continue to use their remaining NK-33's as the first stage engine of Soyuz-2-1v. They seem to be happy with their performance.
They fixed the problem which doomed Antares?
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Orbital Sciences was lucky to have the RD-181 replace the NK-33 as the powerplant for the first stage of the Antares due to the NK-33 being an antiquated rocket engine. It is possible that Antares rocket could one day use the Blue Origin BE-4 or an advanced Aerojet liquid-fuel rocket motor if Northrop Grumman decides to end dependence on NPO Energomash for rocket engines to power the Antares rocket.
no, it can't. BE-4 requires a complete new stage. CH4 required different tanks sizes and different ground support hardware.
Rockets aren't Legos TM
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They fixed the problem which doomed Antares?
The misfortune was AJ-26 that his thrust was increased. NK-33 retained nominal thrust on the Soyuz-2.1v, and a steering engine was added at the first stage RD-0110R
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I think the most likely outcome, unfortunately, is the end of the Antares rocket.
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Hard to say. If Ukraine survives and Dnipro along with it, Ukraine will become part of the EU (already has submitted). Ukraine will be rebuilt with the West’s help, and I could see something using the Antares tooling go forward.
Doesn’t Ukraine have a domestic engine under development? Would be super cheap…
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I think the most likely outcome, unfortunately sadly, is the end of the Antares rocket.
Quite often, we use the word "unfortunately" to describe circumstances having nothing to do with "fortune."
Ukraine is not a victim of "misfortune" (bad luck), but of the insatiable desires of one man, Vladolf Putler.
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https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1499370709935665155?s=21
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I would presume this means the end of Antares.
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https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1499412742956261378?s=20&t=8CNGXMRJQgVuYrhcxc2g5g
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Vladolf Putler.
Made me chuckle. ;D
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https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1499412742956261378?s=20&t=8CNGXMRJQgVuYrhcxc2g5g
There's a possibility that Aerojet could revive the AR1 concept in the form of a joint design with Blue Origin for a scaled-up BE4 combining features of the AR1 design and BE4, and Northrop Grumman could subsequently create a larger Antares variant to accommodate this new engine if it is to keep the Antares program alive and allow the Antares rocket to win a few more buyers.
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https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1499412742956261378?s=20&t=8CNGXMRJQgVuYrhcxc2g5g
There's a possibility that Aerojet could revive the AR1 concept in the form of a joint design with Blue Origin for a scaled-up BE4 combining features of the AR1 design and BE4, and Northrop Grumman could subsequently create a larger Antares variant to accommodate this new engine if it is to keep the Antares program alive and allow the Antares rocket to win a few more buyers.
That would be a non starter.
AR1 AFAIU was never halted rather it is slow tracked and a low priority given the lack of a launch customer. A test stand has been earmarked for the testing campaign. Other fuel types can be pursued with funding and a launch customer. AR metholox demonstrator versions of RS-25X, RL10CX and others were proposed but not pursued since government funding for these follow on programme proposals was not secured.
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Does Aerojet have any NK-33's left over, or am I remembering wrong? Antares has flown with them before, it should be a able to do it again.
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Does Aerojet have any NK-33's left over, or am I remembering wrong? Antares has flown with them before, it should be a able to do it again.
Aerojet originally purchased 36 NK-33 engines, only ten were used on the Antares launches (and IIRC, a couple were lost during test fires) , so they should still has the remaining NK-33 engines in their possession, but they won't be able to use them. The Antares was redesigned for the RD-181 engines, as the RD-181 has significantly more thrust than the AJ-26.
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Unlike ULA and the Atlas V, where only the engines are foreign, I think the complete Antares first stage is built in Ukraine. So AFAIK, NG is not currently set up to build them in the US even if they had engines available.
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Does Aerojet have any NK-33's left over, or am I remembering wrong? Antares has flown with them before, it should be a able to do it again.
Aerojet once powered the Antares with the AJ26, a modified NK-33, but after a failed Antares 100 launch in October 2014, it had the engine for subsequent Antares rockets changed to the RD-181, a derivative of the RD-191. Maybe Aerojet used up all the NK-33s for the Antares rocket, because the NK-33 is an old rocket engine, and the Soyuz 2.1v remains the only SLV in service to use the NK-33.
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https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1499412742956261378?s=20&t=8CNGXMRJQgVuYrhcxc2g5g
According to that tweet NG already has the Russian engines for NG-18 and NG-19 in its possession. What about the Ukrainian first stages - does NG already have the first stages it needs for NG-18 and NG-19?
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https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1499412742956261378?s=20&t=8CNGXMRJQgVuYrhcxc2g5g
According to that tweet NG already has the Russian engines for NG-18 and NG-19 in its possession. What about the Ukrainian first stages - does NG already have the first stages it needs for NG-18 and NG-19?
I found the following statements that imply the stages are here:
https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/05/11/facing-rocket-supply-crunch-northrop-grumman-says-it-has-backup-options-for-iss-resupply/
Kathy Warden, Northrop Grumman’s president and CEO, said in an April 28 earnings call that the company has “some exposure” to the fallout from the war in Ukraine on the NASA resupply contract.
“We have what we need for the next two launches,” Warden said. “So there isn’t immediate disruption, and we have a plan in place that we could use other sources if needed, beyond those two launches.”
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/u-s-russian-ukrainian-space-mission-launches-successfully-despite-terrestrial-tensions/
[Kurt Eberly, Northrop Grumman’s Director of Space Launch:]"...we have all of the hardware we need for all the missions we have on contract with NASA. So that includes NG-17, 18 and 19. All that hardware is here at Wallops.”
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Does Aerojet have any NK-33's left over, or am I remembering wrong? Antares has flown with them before, it should be a able to do it again.
Aerojet once powered the Antares with the AJ26, a modified NK-33, but after a failed Antares 100 launch in October 2014, it had the engine for subsequent Antares rockets changed to the RD-181, a derivative of the RD-191. Maybe Aerojet used up all the NK-33s for the Antares rocket, because the NK-33 is an old rocket engine, and the Soyuz 2.1v remains the only SLV in service to use the NK-33.
They also found some deadly flaw in the NK-33 turbopump, can't remember the exact detail but it was bad enough to motivate the shift to the present engine.
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Does Aerojet have any NK-33's left over, or am I remembering wrong? Antares has flown with them before, it should be a able to do it again.
Aerojet once powered the Antares with the AJ26, a modified NK-33, but after a failed Antares 100 launch in October 2014, it had the engine for subsequent Antares rockets changed to the RD-181, a derivative of the RD-191. Maybe Aerojet used up all the NK-33s for the Antares rocket, because the NK-33 is an old rocket engine, and the Soyuz 2.1v remains the only SLV in service to use the NK-33.
They also found some deadly flaw in the NK-33 turbopump, can't remember the exact detail but it was bad enough to motivate the shift to the present engine.
They were old engines that weren't stored in controlled environment. Exposed to 30yrs of Russian summer and winter temperature swings. Don't think design was flawed.
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They also found some deadly flaw in the NK-33 turbopump, can't remember the exact detail but it was bad enough to motivate the shift to the present engine.
Yes, there were several possible causes of the engine failure. None of them had to do with the age of engine.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/11/01/two-antares-failure-probes-produce-different-results/
"An accident investigation board led by Orbital ATK — the Antares rocket’s developer and operator — singled out a manufacturing defect in the turbine housing bearing bore of the liquid oxygen turbopump of Engine No. 1, also known as Engine E15, on the Antares booster as the failure’s most probable cause."
...
"The summary of NASA’s investigation results said that the designs of the engine’s hydraulic balance assembly and thrust bearings “have several intricacies and sensitivities that make it difficult to reliably manage bearing loads. As a result, this area of the turbopump is vulnerable to oxygen fire and failures.”
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Missile hits have been reported to the Yuzmash plant in Dnipro (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62189844).
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Missile hits have been reported to the Yuzmash plant in Dnipro (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62189844).
Fire detected at the plant via FIRMs
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;m:tsd;d:7days;@35.0,48.4,14z
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Northrop’s strategy with Antares became a lot clearer …
New thread: Northrop teams with Firefly (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56913.0)