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SpaceX Vehicles and Missions => SpaceX Missions Section => Topic started by: gongora on 07/15/2017 02:45 AM

Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/15/2017 02:45 AM
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 

The first four posts in this thread are maintained
1 - Current manifest and some links
2 - Past launches
3 - Smoliarm's graphical manifest
4 - links

Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0)
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0)

Sites:
      C=Cape Canaveral Spaceport (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Active for Falcon 9
            KSC LC-39A: Active for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, will need further work for Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for Falcon 9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  -- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44662.0)-- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43199.0)
2018-01-07*2000/-5F91043.1LZuma (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.0)LEO?C-40(48)
2018-01-31  1625/-5F91032.2XGovSat-1 (SES-16) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)GTO4230C-4049
2018-02-06  1545/-5HRNR*LSLFH Demo/Tesla Roadster (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44778.0)ESC~1.2kC-39A(H1)
2018-02-22  0617/-8F91038.2XPAZ & Microsat 2a/2b (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)SSO2.2k+V-4E50
2018-03-06  0033/-5F91044XHispasat 1F (30W-6) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43435.0)GTO6092C-4051
2018-03-30  0714/-7F91041.2XIridium NEXT (Flight 5) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44634.0)PLR9600V-4E52
2018-04-02  1630/-4F91039.2XCRS SpX-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44298.0)LEO~10kC-4053
2018-04-18  1851/-4F91045.1SNASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)HEO325C-4054
2018-05-11  1614/-4F91046SBangabandhu-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)GTO3.7kC-39A55
2018-05-22  1248/-7F91043.2XIridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)PLR~6kV-4E56
2018-06-04  0045/-4F91040.2XSES-12 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43648.0)GTO5384C-4057
2018-06-29  0542/-4F91045.2XCRS SpX-15 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44725.0)LEO~10kC-4058
2018-07-22  0150/-4F91047STelstar 19 Vantage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43465.0)GTO7075C-4059
2018-07-25  0439/-7F91048SIridium NEXT (Flight 7) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45725.0)PLR9600V-4E60
2018-08-07  0118/-4F91046.2SMerah Putih (Telkom 4) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44227.0)GTO5800C-4061
2018-09-10  0045/-4F91049STelstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43466.0)GTO7060C-4062
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2018-10-07 NETF91048.2LSAOCOM 1A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44715.0)SSO3000V-4E63
2018-11F9.SSSO-A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)SSO~4kV-4E.
2018-11?F9.SEs'hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)GTO~3kC-39A.
2018-11-27  1619/-5F9.LCRS SpX-16 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45881.0)LEO~10kC-40.
2018-12F91051?CCtCap DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q4F9NSIridium NEXT (Flight 8) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46116.0)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-12-15  0908/-5F9N.USAF GPS III-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30912.0)MEO3880C-40.
2018-late (NET)H..Arabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)GTO~6kC-39AH3
2018-Q4 NETF9R.RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)SSO~1.5kV-4E.
2018-end (NET)F9..SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~2200V-4E.
2019-earlyF9.?PSN VI / SpaceIL / GTO-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)GTO~6k?C.
2019-02F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2019HNLSLSTP-2 (US Air Force) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)MEO~8k?C-39AH2
2019-H1F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort Test (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45279.0)SUB.CN/A
2019F9..GiSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)GTO~6kC.
2019-Q2F9N.CCtCap DM2 (Crew) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46110.0)LEO.C-39A.
2019-05F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
2019-Q2F9R.AMOS-17 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44162.0)GTO5500C.
2019-H2F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44263.0)SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43687.0)GTO~6k+C.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO>5400C(80)
2019-10F9N.USAF GPS III-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)MEO3880C.
2019-10F9..CRS SpX-19LEO~10kC.
2019-12 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-4MEO3880C(100)
2020-01F9..CRS SpX-20LEO~10kC.
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO>5400C(80)
2020F9..Türksat 5A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44188.0)GTO3500C.
2020F9..CRS2 SpX-21LEO~10kC.
2020-09HN.AFSPC-52 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45886.0)GTO.C-39A.
2020-11F9..Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44023.0)LEO1440V-4E.
2020F9..CRS2 SpX-22LEO~10kC.
2020F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?550C(82)
2020F9..USAF GPS III-5MEO3880C(100)
2020F9..USAF GPS III-6MEO3880C(100)
2020-2022H..one of the ViaSat 3 sats?GTO6400C(85)
2021F9..Türksat 5B (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44189.0)GTO4500C.
2021-04F9..SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)LEO2000V-4E.
2021F9R.WorldView Legion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45220.0)LEO.V.
2021F9R.WorldView LegionLEO.C.
2022-ishF9..AMOS-8 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45324.0)GTO.C.
2022 (Very NET)BFR..MarsTMI.?.
2023 (NET)BFR..#dearMoonTLI.?.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2021-2024)F9..CRS-2 (4+ flights)LEO.C.
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes / Mission failure may not be SpaceX's fault

NOTES:
(48) Zuma - Reportedly suffered payload separation failure, not confirmed by unknown customer
(H1) FH Demo - Serial Numbers:  Side1:1023.2  Center:1033  Side2: 1025.2
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release (https://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20160728.html) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/sxm-7.htm)
(82) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1760955#msg1760955)
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 (http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2016/02/10/dankberg-viasat-3-satellites-will-have-more-capacity-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/) SpaceNews 2/10/2016 (http://spacenews.com/viasat-details-1-4-billion-global-ka-band-satellite-broadband-strategy-to-oust-incumbent-players/) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)
(100) GPS III - Three flights (one ordered and two options) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1799142#msg1799142)

Possible future payloads:
Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428) update (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1713405#msg1713405)

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1755716#msg1755716)

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

SpaceX Mission Paperwork (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.0) / Raul's Map (https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1wvgFIPuOmI8da9EIB88tHo9vamo&ll=30.086381422623965%2C-76.01633949920557&z=7)
L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.0)
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0) / Public Core Spotting (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.0)
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
Viewing flights from Vandenberg (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.0) / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral (http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html) / Viewing Flights from KSC/CCAFS (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44657.0)
Upcoming SpaceX Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1690190#msg1690190) / General Industry Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43382)
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42389.0)
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36513.0)
NSF Manifest Threads: U.S. (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0) / Russian (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.0) / Arianespace (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=6114.0) / Japanese (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1181.0) / Chinese (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5060.0) / Indian (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1173.0) / Consolidated (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15134.0)
Commercial Space Index Thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43758.0)

Recent Edits:
Sep 7  Changed second GPS flight from III-2 to III-3, moved later in 2019.
Sep 6  Moved AMOS-8 a couple years later
Aug 14  Removed Spaceflight GTO rideshare.
Aug 10  Moved GPS III-1 to December 2019
Aug 2  Moved DM-1 to Nov 2018, DM-2 to Apr 2019, Es'hail-2 to Q4-2018
June 30  Removed some of the speculative Spaceflight rideshares until we get more info they really exist.
June 29  Updated the next few East Coast launches based on Ben Cooper's site.
June 21  Adding AFSPC-52
May 16  SES-12 moved to NET May 31.  GPS III-01 moved to NET October.
May 9  Moved STP-2 to NET October (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.msg1819720#msg1819720)
May 8  Iridium 7 moved to NET July 9 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.msg1819202#msg1819202).  PSN VI moved to 2019 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.msg1819311#msg1819311)
Apr 18  Telstar 18V in July (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1811750#msg1811750)
Apr 15  Moved STP-2 a little later in the year
Apr 11  Changed Bangabandhu-1 from April 24 to May 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.msg1809005#msg1809005)
Apr 9  Moved Iridium 6 to May 19 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.msg1808346#msg1808346).  Moved SAOCOM 1A to September (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1808308#msg1808308)
Apr 4  Changed CRS-15 to June 28.


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/15/2017 02:45 AM
Previous Missions

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2010-06-04  1445/-4F9..Dragon Qual Unit (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21869.0)LEO~6kC-401
2010-12-08  1043/-5F9..Dragon C1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22041.0)LEO~8kC-402
-
2012-05-22  0344/-4F9..Dragon C2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28486.0)LEO~8kC-403
2012-10-07*2035/-4F9..CRS SpX-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29130.0)LEO~8kC-404
-
2013-03-01  1010/-5F9..CRS SpX-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30184.0)LEO~9kC-405
2013-09-29  0900/-7F9..Cassiope (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31429.0)PLR500V-4E6
2013-12-03  1741/-5F9..SES-8 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=24469.0)GTO3183C-407
-
2014-01-06  1706/-5F9..Thaicom 6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32449.0)GTO3016C-408
2014-04-18  1525/-4F9..CRS SpX-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31513.0)LEO~10kC-409
2014-07-14  1115/-4F9..Orbcomm OG2 Flight 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33089.0)LEO1-2kC-4010
2014-08-05  0400/-4F9..Asiasat 8 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35211.0)GTO4535C-4011
2014-09-07  0100/-4F9..Asiasat 6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27985.0)GTO4428C-4012
2014-09-21  0152/-4F9..CRS SpX-4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35385.0)LEO~10kC-4013
-
2015-01-10  0447/-5F9.SCRS SpX-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35853.0)LEO~10kC-4014
2015-02-11  1803/-5F9..DSCOVR (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30543.0)EEO570C-4015
2015-03-01*2250/-5F9..Eutelsat 115WB/ABS 3A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36065.0)GTO4159C-4016
2015-04-14  1610/-4F9.SCRS SpX-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36892.0)LEO~10kC-4017
2015-04-27  1903/-4F9..TürkmenÄlem 52E/MonacoSAT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29878.0)GTO4707C-4018
2015-06-28  1021/-4F9.N/ACRS SpX-7 (failed) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37476.0)LEO~10kC-4019
2015-12-21  2029/-5F91019LORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38149.0)LEO1892C-4020
-
2016-01-17  1042/-8F9.SJason-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29457.0)LEO553V-4E21
2016-03-04  1835/-5F9.SSES-9 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34077.0)GTO5271C-4022
2016-04-08  1643/-4F91021.1SCRS SpX-8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39350.0)LEO~10kC-4023
2016-05-06  0121/-4F91022SJCSAT-14 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33778.0)GTO4696C-4024
2016-05-27  1740/-4F91023.1SThaicom 8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40256.0)GTO3025C-4025
2016-06-15  1029/-4F9.SEutelsat 117W B & ABS-2A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.0)GTO4200C-4026
2016-07-18  0045/-4F9.LCRS SpX-9 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40310.0)LEO~10kC-4027
2016-08-14  0126/-4F9.SJCSAT-16 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40373.0)GTO~4600C-4028
2016-09-01  0907/-4F9.N/AAMOS-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.0)(destroyed in pad test)GTO5500C-4029
-
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS SpX-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0)LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0)GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0)GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032.1LNROL-76 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0)LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035.1LCRS SpX-11 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0)GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 2) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)GTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039.1LCRS SpX-12 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42878.0)LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038.1SFORMOSAT-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-4F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)LEO5400C-39A42
2017-10-09  0537/-7F91041.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 3) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43217.0)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10-11  1853/-4F91031.2SSES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)GTO5200C-39A44
2017-10-30  1534/-4F91042SKoreasat-5A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)GTO3700C-39A45
2017-12-15  1036/-5F91035.2LCRS SpX-13 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.0)LEO~10kC-4046
2017-12-22*1727/-8F91036.2XIridium NEXT (Flight 4) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43940.0)PLR9600V-4E47

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 07/20/2017 12:32 PM
[Moderator Note:  This chart is maintained by a different person than the table in the first post, so they may be slightly out of sync.  Discussion of the chart format should take place in the SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0) thread.]

Disclaimer:
1. This chart is based on information from open sources only. Therefore, it has a lot of guesswork.
2. I fully realize that most of actual dates and even launch order will turn out quite different, but prediction is not the purpose. The purpose of the chart is to visualize “launch density” and possible scheduling conflicts for Cape and Vandenberg.
I’ll update this chart as new scheduling information becomes available, however, some time-gap between this chart and the above schedule table is inevitable (will try to minimize it :) )

Notes for the chart (permanent ones)
Vertical scale:
Shows three pads operated by SpaceX at two ranges – Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral – enclosed in dotted grey lines.
Horizontal scale is approximate because I just divided year into 12 equal periods, therefore tick-marks are not exactly on the 1st of the month.
Launch marks:
SpaceX launches are blue circles. Blue crosses show the dates of successful Static Fire tests for the past launches and the one already scheduled for the next launch. Bright blue labels denote government launches (NASA, NRO, and USAF).
Red circles represent all other launches (ULA and Orbital ATK) from any pads of these two ranges.
Vertical green line shows the date for a particular version of the chart.

------------------------------------------
Note for particular chart (as of July 28, 2017).
Basically just one thing: the Oct-Dec schedule for Cape is pretty tight.
The launch cadence is similar to May-June, but there is a difference - in May-June SpaceX had Eastern Range all for themselves, there were no flights by ULA in this period.  Here they have three launches for Oct-Dec, and all satellites are for military.
------------------------------------------
Note for update of Aug 16 2017:
Two ULA launches moved to 2018 (pale-dotted marks show their old launch dates).
So for Oct-Dec, SpaceX is the only user of Eastern Range.
------------------------------------------
Note for Oct 22 2017 update:
For some cases I have number of days between launches with (?) mark.
It means that this gap appears too short by some reasons.
------------------------------------------
Note for Apr 04 2018 update:
The chart is now in slightly modified format:
Pale-green marks show launches which are listed in green dash frames.
For those satellites we know just the fact they are in plans for 2018 launch.
So we do not know the time frame, the launch order, even the pad sometimes.
Therefore these marks are not labelled and they are at arbitrary-even spacing.
They just illustrate the total number of launches in plans at this time.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/21/2017 07:45 PM
Useful links related to keeping track of manifest and scheduling stuff for SpaceX and the launch industry in general.

NSF Manifest Threads:
   U.S. (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0) / SpaceX (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0) / Russian (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.0) / Arianespace (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=6114.0) / Japanese (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1181.0) / Chinese (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5060.0) / Indian (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1173.0) / Consolidated (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15134.0)

NASA:
   NASA ASAP Meeting Minutes (https://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap/minutes.html) (next July 26)
   NASA Advisory Council HEO Committee (https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/nac-heoc) (next late July?)
   ISS On-Orbit Status Report (https://blogs.nasa.gov/stationreport/)
   Upcoming ELaNA Cubesat Launches (https://www.nasa.gov/content/upcoming-elana-cubesat-launches)
   Space Station Research Experiments (https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments_category)
   NASA/KSC Acronyms (https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/facts/acronyms.html)
   NASA Space Act Agreements (https://www.nasa.gov/partnerships/about.html)

Annual Reports:
   Satellite Industry Association's annual "State of Satellite Industry" (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40437.0)
   FAA Annual Compendiums of Commercial Space Transportation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40201.0)
   GAO Annual Assessment of NASA Large Scale Programs (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37157.msg1351753#msg1351753)
   Aeronautics and Space Report of the President (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46004.0)

Satellite Constellations Under Development:
   FCC NGSO Constellation filings (Nov 2016/Mar 2017) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41647.0)
   SpaceX - now a satellite vendor? (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36552.0)
   SpaceX FCC filing for a 4425 satellite constellation providing Internet service (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41634.0)
   OneWeb constellation (+900 sats) to be built by Airbus (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37814.0)
   Boeing constellation (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40592.0)

Regulatory Agencies:
   FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation (https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/)
      FAA Active Commercial Launch Licenses (http://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/)
   FAA NOTAMs (http://tfr.faa.gov/tfr2/list.html) (choose Type=Space Operations)
   FCC IBFS (http://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/) (Commercial Satellites and Ground Stations)
   FCC OET Experimental Licensing System (https://apps.fcc.gov/els) (Experimental permits, launch/landing comms)
   NOAA CRSRA Licensing (https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/CRSRA/licenseHome.html)
   USCG NOTMAR District 7 (Florida) (https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=lnmDistrict&region=7)
   USCG NOTMAR District 11 (California) (https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=lnmDistrict&region=11)
   Regulations.gov : SpaceX (https://www.regulations.gov/searchResults?rpp=25&so=DESC&sb=postedDate&po=0&s=spacex&fp=true&dct=FR%2BPR%2BN%2BO)
   Regulations.gov : Space Exploration Technologies (https://www.regulations.gov/searchResults?rpp=25&so=DESC&sb=postedDate&po=0&s=%22space%2Bexploration%2Btechnologies%22)

Environmental Stuff:
   Patrick AFB (https://www.patrick.af.mil/About-Us/Environmental/)
   KSC NEPA (https://environmental.ksc.nasa.gov/EnvironmentalPlanning/NEPA)
   FAA (https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/environmental/nepa_docs/) (Look under "Experimental" and "Launch Operator" sections)

Contracting:
   DoD Contracts (https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts)
   FBO.gov (Federal Business Opportunities) (https://www.fbo.gov/)
   FPDS.gov (Federal Procurement Data System) (https://www.fpds.gov/)

Launch Sites:
   Patrick AFB Weather (Cape Canaveral) (http://www.patrick.af.mil/about-us/weather)
   Vandenberg (http://www.vandenberg.af.mil/launch_center/)
   Air Force reveals plan for up to 48 launches per year from Cape Canaveral (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42567.0)

Misc:
   Commercial Space Index Thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43758.0)
   FISO Telecon Archive Index (http://fiso.spiritastro.net/archivelist.htm)
   SpacePolicyOnline.com (https://spacepolicyonline.com) (good events schedule for space meetings/conferences/hearings)

CCtCap:
   SpaceX CCtCAP Milestones (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39832.0)
   Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.0)
   Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35717.0)
   Commercial Crew providers making "significant progress" toward first flights (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43233.0)
   Dragon 2 (Thread 3) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46136.0)
   CCtCAP Requirements (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26489.0)




Past manifest snapshots
2016-09-09 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1755938#msg1755938)
2017-09-07 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1720621#msg1720621)
2017-12-22 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1763346#msg1763346)
2018-07-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1837899#msg1837899)

Past schedule edits:

2018
Mar 26  AMOS-8 has been ordered, still targeting second half of 2020.
Mar 14  Added two WorldView Legion flights in 2021 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1798963#msg1798963).  Added three GPS III flights in 2019-2020 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1799142#msg1799142).
Feb 22  Moved Iridium 5 from March 20 to March 29, Iridium 6 from April 14 to late April
Feb 21  Moved Arabsat 6A from mid-2018 to later in the year.
Feb 15  Moved TESS from March 20 to NET April 16 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1789019#msg1789019), switched from pad 39A to 40.
Feb 8  Moved GPS III-1 to NET September from NET May (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30912.msg1786125#msg1786125), SpaceX has GPS III-2 launch.
Feb 7  Removed SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42421.0)
Feb 1  Moved PAZ from Feb 10 to Feb 17 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.msg1780521#msg1780521)
Jan 19  Changed Iridium 5 from Q1 to March 18 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1774090#msg1774090).  Changed PSN VI from 2018 to Q4-2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.msg1774279#msg1774279)
Jan 17  Changed Bangabandhu-1 from March to March 26 (NET) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.msg1773519#msg1773519)
Jan 15  Moved CRS-14 from Mar 13 to Apr 2, CRS-15 from Jun 6 to Jun 9 (from Spaceflight Now schedule updates)
Jan 13  Moved SSO-A from 2018-04 to mid 2018.
Jan 11  Moved DM-1 to August from Q2, DM-2 to December from August.  Moved PAZ to Feb 10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.msg1770728#msg1770728) from Feb.
Jan 05  Moved SAOCOM-1A from June to August (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1767758#msg1767758) 2018

2017
Dec 29  Moved CRS-16 to November, CRS-17/18 to 2019
Dec 19  Moved GRACE-FO from March to April 14 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1761051#msg1761051)
Dec 18  Added Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1760955#msg1760955) in 2020
Dec 14  Moved Telkom 4 from August 2018 to NET May 2018.
Dec 12  The May 2018 GPS mission changed from GPS III-2 to GPS III-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30912.msg1758553#msg1758553)
Nov 24  Moved Bangabandhu from February to March (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1752881#msg1752881)
Nov 12  Moving Hispasat 30W-6 to first half of 2018 as there is much uncertainly about the launch date.
Nov 09  Adding Türksat 5A in 2020 and Türksat 5B in 2021 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1747593#msg1747593)
Oct 19  Moving Iridium NEXT Flight 4 to Dec 22 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43940.msg1739413#msg1739413) from late November.  Adding Sentinel-6A in November 2020 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1739643#msg1739643).
Oct 18  Adding Amos-17 in Q2-2019 and Amos-8 in H2-2020 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1739010#msg1739010).  Putting most of the Spaceflight Industries flights down in the TBD list at the end until we have a better idea when they will actually fly.  Moved GiSat-1 from 2018-Q4 to 2019 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.msg1739054#msg1739054).
Oct 14  Added Mystery Payload Codename Zuma in mid-November (this was formerly listed as unknown Northrop Grumman)
Oct 09  PAZ moved to Jan 30 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.msg1734292#msg1734292) from December.
Oct 05  SES-11 delayed to Oct. 11 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43728.msg1732020#msg1732020).  Bangabandhu-1 delayed to February (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1731900#msg1731900) from December.  GovSat/SES-16 delayed to January (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.msg1731761#msg1731761) from December.  DM-1 moved to April 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1732128#msg1732128) from February, DM-2 moved to August 2018 from June, In-Flight Abort presumed to be between them in mid-2018.
Oct 01  Koreasat 5A set for Oct. 30 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1730289#msg1730289), CRS-13 set for Nov. 28
Sep 28 Moved SSO-A from 2018-02 to 2018-Q2
Sep 11 Move SAOCOM-1A from March to June 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1721929#msg1721929)
Sep 06 Added Sirius SXM-7 in 2019, SXM-8 in 2020 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1720164#msg1720164).  Removed line items for Eutelsat and Inmarsat, added list at the end for customers with unspecified contracts.
Sep 04 Added Kacific-1/JCSat-18 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1719252#msg1719252) in second half of 2019
Aug 31 Telkom 4 moved from June to August 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1718151#msg1718151)
Aug 28 SES-14 switched to Ariane 5 launch.  SES-12 switched to F9 launch Q1-2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1717074#msg1717074).
Aug 25 Moved Iridium Flight 3 to October 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43217.msg1716192#msg1716192).
Aug 23 Removed Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, SSO-D (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1713405#msg1713405)
Aug 22 GRACE-FO March 21, 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.msg1715144#msg1715144).  CRS-14 late January 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1715152#msg1715152)?, CRS-15 June 2018.
Aug 13 Moved CRS-13 to early December (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.msg1712288#msg1712288)
Jul 28  Moved Iridium 4 to late November (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1707261#msg1707261), Iridium 5 to Q1-2018, SES-11 to October (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1707475#msg1707475)
Jul 26  Moved OTV-5 to September (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1706675#msg1706675), Telstar 18V & 19V to Q2-2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1706738#msg1706738)
Jul 22  Moved SES-16 to December 2017 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1705065#msg1705065)
Jul 21  Moved CRS-12 to August 14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43347.msg1704861#msg1704861).  Moved DM-1 to February 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1704261#msg1704261).
Jul 19  Removed Red Dragon (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42615.msg1703926#msg1703926)
Jul 11  Moved SAOCOM-1A to March 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1701557#msg1701557), SAOCOM-1B to 2019, removed specific months from future Iridium flights
Jun 30  Moved SES-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.msg1697257#msg1697257) to 2018-Q1
Jun 28  Moved OTV-5 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.msg1696121#msg1696121) to August 28.
Jun 27  Removed exact date from OTV-5.  Moved Formosat-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.msg1695687#msg1695687) to August 24.  Moved Iridium Flight 3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.msg1695687#msg1695687) to September.  Moved SES-11 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1695565#msg1695565) to September.  Moved Koreasat-5A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1695845#msg1695845) to Q4.  Moved PSN-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1695872#msg1695872) to mid-2018.  Moved Intelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43211.msg1695815#msg1695815) to July 2.  Removed ViaSat-3 Asia.  Marked Iridium Flight 2 complete.
Jun 23  Moved CRS-12 to Aug 10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1693642#msg1693642).  Marked BulgariaSat 1 complete.
Jun 22  Moved Arabsat 6A before STP-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43197.msg1692778#msg1692778), both early/H1 2018
Jun 17  OTV-5 August 17 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.msg1692388#msg1692388).  Changed table format, now being maintained by gongora.
Jun 06  Slipped Bulgariasat 2 days.  Added X-37B in August 2017
Jun 05  Marked CRS-11 successful.  Removed speculative Mars mission dates.
Jun 02  Removed Eutelsat Quantum
May 25  Moved Iridium Flight 2 to June 25 (1325 PDT).  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 1.
May 24  Moved Koreasat-5A to August (educated guess), CCiCap In-Flight Abort to 2018
         removed estimated launch month from FH Demo and STP-2
May 23  Moved Eutelsat Quantum to 2019
May 21  Added Telkom 4, June 2018
May 20  Moved CCtCap DM-1 to March 2018
May 17  Moved PSN-6 to 2018
May 14  updated masses (Telstar, Es'hail-2, Hispasat, GiSat) and core numbers for multiple missions 
May 04  Moved SSO-A to 2018
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/21/2017 11:40 PM
Thanks for the illuminating schedule chart.

Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 07/22/2017 07:06 AM
https://twitter.com/govsatlu/status/888375632584900608

GovSat-1 launch expected for December 2017 #GovSat1 #satellite #Luxembourg #Europe #Defence 100komma7.lu/article/aktual…

Edit: added the tweet contents. Just realized that Tapatalk now automatically displays tweets from just the link alone, but the forum (accessed directly) does not..

Text from related 21 juli article:
De Satellit GovSat-1 dierft mat liichtem Retard lancéiert ginn. Den initiale Plang war e Lancement am Oktober. Vun der privater US-Entreprise SpaceX hätt een elo eng Zäitfënster confirméiert kritt. A priori fir Dezember, sou de Generaldirekter vu LuxGovSat Patrick Biewer. Enn 2017, respektiv Ufank 2018 soll de Betrib vum sougenannte Militär-Satellit kënnen ufänken

So SpaceX gave LuxGovSat CEO Patrick Biewer notice the launch is now planned for December
Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 07/22/2017 10:21 PM
Lol!
https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/888884565468688385

Me:
Any chance you will start using flight proven boosters for coming launches?
IridiumBoss:
Sure, there is always a chance...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/26/2017 06:26 PM
Possible change in X-37B date:

Quote
Changes to Eastern Range launch schedule: SpaceX CRS-12 now no earlier than 8/14; SpaceX X-37B NET 9/7; ULA NROL-52 NET 9/25.

https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/890273595166949377
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/26/2017 09:41 PM
[SpaceNews] Telesat says low latency led to LEO constellation (http://spacenews.com/telesat-says-low-latency-led-to-leo-constellation/)
Quote
Telesat does have two GEO-HTS satellites under construction, Telstar-18 Vantage and Telstar-19 Vantage, from Space Systems Loral of Palo Alto, California. Those are scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2018, Goldberg said. Both are launching on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Telstar-18 Vantage, which Hong Kong-based APT Satellite is co-financing in exchange for capacity on the satellite, targets the Asia Pacific; Telstar 19 Vantage covers the Americas.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: OnWithTheShow on 07/27/2017 12:54 PM
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes

Next @IridiumComm launch by @SpaceX is set for Sept. 30 from VAFB, Iridium says.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 07/28/2017 03:03 AM
Tweet from Elon Musk (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/890765027032039429):
Quote
Falcon Heavy maiden launch this November https://www.instagram.com/p/BXEkGKlgJDK/ (https://www.instagram.com/p/BXEkGKlgJDK/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Chris Bergin on 07/28/2017 02:12 PM
Iridium Announces Third Iridium® NEXT Launch Date

MCLEAN, Va. – July 28, 2017 - Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: IRDM) announced today that the upcoming Iridium NEXT launch has been targeted for September 30, 2017 at 6:30 a.m. PDT. This launch will deliver another 10 Iridium NEXT satellites to orbit on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and will bring the total number of Iridium NEXT satellites deployed to 30. SpaceX selected the September 30th launch date based on rocket and Vandenberg Air Force Base range availability. SpaceX’s targeted launch schedule accommodates completion of the Iridium NEXT constellation as planned in mid-2018. In total, SpaceX will deliver 75 Iridium NEXT satellites to orbit. In case of inclement weather, a backup launch date has been scheduled for October 1.

Unlike previous launches where some Iridium NEXT satellites were sent drifting to an orbital plane different from where they were launched, all 10 satellites for this launch are currently planned to provide service in orbital plane four. The Iridium constellation’s unique architecture is designed with six polar orbiting planes consisting of 11 interconnected satellites per plane, with in-orbit spares, creating a true web of connectivity around the planet.

SpaceX has scheduled the fourth launch to take place in late November. Iridium NEXT manufacturing has completed enough satellites for nearly the next three SpaceX launches. All Iridium NEXT launches take place from SpaceX’s West Coast launch facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Iridium NEXT is the company’s $3 billion next-generation mobile, global satellite network scheduled for completion in 2018. Iridium NEXT will replace the company’s

existing global constellation in one of the largest technology upgrades ever completed in space. It represents the evolution of critical communications infrastructure that governments and organizations worldwide rely upon to drive business, enable connectivity, empower disaster relief efforts and more. Iridium NEXT will enable and introduce new services like the company’s next-generation communications platform, Iridium CertusSM, and the AireonSM space-based ADS-B aircraft surveillance and flight tracking network. The Iridium NEXT satellites are manufactured by Thales Alenia Space and assembled by its subcontractor, Orbital ATK, at its facility in Gilbert, Arizona.

For more information about Iridium NEXT, please visit www.IridiumNEXT.com.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/28/2017 05:15 PM
SES-11 may have slipped to October?  SES quarterly earning statement (http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170727006621/en/Year-2017-Results-Solid-Performance-Execution-SES%E2%80%99s) was released today.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 07/28/2017 05:40 PM
SES-11 may have slipped to October? 

If so, SES-11 may now be the first flight from pad 40 after its reactivation.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: IanThePineapple on 07/28/2017 05:47 PM
SES-11 may have slipped to October? 

If so, SES-11 may now be the first flight from pad 40 after its reactivation.

That's fitting because SES-11 was supposed to be the first 39A launch after it was finished, pre-AMOS 6
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Chris Bergin on 08/02/2017 05:27 PM
A good place for this per the SpaceX side:
Eastern Range ready to return with two key launches after stand down - by Chris Gebhardt

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/eastern-range-return-two-key-launches-stand-down/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/03/2017 04:29 PM
My current guess for matching FCC permits to future SpaceX missions (a very inexact science):

[Payload (FCC Mission #) - Location, Landing Method]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRS-12 (CRS-12) - Florida, RTLS
Formosat 5 (1344) - California, ASDS
OTV-5 (1348) - Florida, RTLS
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
Iridium Flight 3 (1339) - California, ASDS
Koreasat-5A (1370) - Florida, permit is for either RTLS or ASDS
CRS-13 (not filed yet)
Hispasat 30W-6 (1387) - Florida, Expendable

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Raul on 08/04/2017 09:13 AM
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
FCC M1334 should be already used for BulgariaSat-1 mission
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 08/04/2017 06:44 PM
SES 11/Echostar 105 to reuse booster 1031 from CRS-10:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/08/04/ses-agrees-to-launch-another-satellite-on-a-previously-flown-falcon-9-booster/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/09/2017 06:45 PM
Quote
Launch of @EchoStar-105/@SES_Satellites-11 C/Ku/Ka-band sat on @SpaceX Falcon 9 now scheduled for "early 4th quarter," EchoStar says.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/895353459347570688
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/16/2017 04:22 PM
Tweet from Emre Kelly (https://twitter.com/EmreKelly/status/897852438551592963):
Quote
Launch schedule updated: SpaceX #CRS13 targeted for 12/17; SpaceX #SES11 later this year, likely 9/17 or 10/17

SES and Echostar have both listed the SES-11 launch as 4Q, so probably October.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/16/2017 08:33 PM
I don't recall seeing this Reddit post linked here yet, someone went to a conference where Spaceflight Industries was speaking and got a picture of their upcoming launch schedule.  It has their currently intended dates for the Falcon 9 dedicated missions, as well as rideshares on Falcon, Soyuz, PSLV, Minotaur C, Electron, VEGA.  There are also some notes on SHERPA and SpaceIL, and whether Dream Chaser could fly on a Falcon 9.

r/SpaceX user Swinusoidal: Spaceflight Manifest Shows 7 Dedicated F9 Launches Through 2020 In The Works - 4 SSO, 3 GTO (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5yjpvo/spaceflight_manifest_shows_7_dedicated_f9/)

The dedicated SpaceX flights:
2017-Q4             F9           SSO-A (575km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-Q4             F9           SSO-B (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-1 (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-2 (200x60000km ~27.5deg)
2019-H2             F9           SSO-C (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2020-H1             F9           GTO-C (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2020-H1             F9           SSO-D (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)


We had heard previously that Spaceflight Industries intended to fly at least 4 Falcon 9 missions to various orbits, so the later ones in this list may or may not be under contract yet.

We saw this list from a Spaceflight Inc. presentation back in March.  I looked at the current list of flights on their web site and tried to match up the flights.  Not too surprisingly, they don't all seem to be there.  What they currently have on their web site for SSO/GTO flights from the U.S. are:
SSO Q1-2018 (presumably SSO-A)
GTO Q4-2018 (supersync 60k apogee, they also have a foreign flight to same, so GTO-1 from the list above is missing)
SSO Q4-2018 (500-525k, could be SSO-B)
GTO Q4-2019 (35,786km apogee)

Based on the current contents of their web site, I'm thinking I'll remove the flights we have as GTO-1 and SSO-D from our manifest, move GTO-C to Q4-2019, move SSO-C to 2020?

If anyone sees another Spaceflight presentation at a conference, please share any schedule updates you find.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/17/2017 04:02 PM
SpaceX filed an FCC permit application for a launch with ASDS landing from SLC-40, NET 10/14 (these permit dates are very much NET).  The mission number (1373) doesn't match any of the previous permits they've received for flights from LC-39A, so I don't know if this is really a different payload or they used a different mission number to move a payload from LC-39A to SLC-40.

There are a couple permits granted for flights from LC-39A that I assume will move to SLC-40.  Does anyone know if they'd need to file for new permits, or amend the existing permits, and would we actually see any amendments to the existing permits?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: soltasto on 08/18/2017 12:11 PM
SpaceX filed an FCC permit application for a launch with ASDS landing from SLC-40, NET 10/14 (these permit dates are very much NET).  The mission number (1373) doesn't match any of the previous permits they've received for flights from LC-39A, so I don't know if this is really a different payload or they used a different mission number to move a payload from LC-39A to SLC-40.

There are a couple permits granted for flights from LC-39A that I assume will move to SLC-40.  Does anyone know if they'd need to file for new permits, or amend the existing permits, and would we actually see any amendments to the existing permits?

As far as I know they can amend the permits, but it would probably have to be re-approved.

M1373 could be KoreaSat-5A as October falls into Q4.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/19/2017 01:47 PM
This thread lists the 5th Iridium Next flight as Q1 18, which makes sense to me as ~2 months from the late Nov fourth flight that Iridium has already announced.

However, the Western range schedule in the latest news article still shows an Iridium flight in December:

Article for the Static Fire (and more) by Chris Gebhardt:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/spacex-static-fire-formosat-5-falcon-9-asds-landing/

I assume the article is just quoting the placeholder previously given, in the absence of any announcement yet of the fifth flight's schedule?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/19/2017 04:50 PM
This thread lists the 5th Iridium Next flight as Q1 18, which makes sense to me as ~2 months from the late Nov fourth flight that Iridium has already announced.

However, the Western range schedule in the latest news article still shows an Iridium flight in December:

Article for the Static Fire (and more) by Chris Gebhardt:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/spacex-static-fire-formosat-5-falcon-9-asds-landing/

I assume the article is just quoting the placeholder previously given, in the absence of any announcement yet of the fifth flight's schedule?

The article says NET December, which isn't quite the same as showing an Iridium flight in December  :)  For this manifest I'm assuming they will be at least 6 weeks apart, so late November would be followed by January.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: dror on 08/22/2017 03:42 AM
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: crandles57 on 08/22/2017 01:02 PM
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)

Should this be updated to 'around October 2017' or something similar perhaps even 'Next launch NET October 14, 2017', if flight permit for SES-11 from SLC-40 has been granted with that date and all earlier flight are not from that pad?

Any news on how this pad work is coming along / when it will finish? Will LC39A work start immediately after Sept 7th ish launch of X-37B or are they going to wait for fully operational status or even a launch?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: crandles57 on 08/22/2017 02:35 PM
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/22/2017 03:46 PM
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)

Should this be updated to 'around October 2017' or something similar perhaps even 'Next launch NET October 14, 2017', if flight permit for SES-11 from SLC-40 has been granted with that date and all earlier flight are not from that pad?

Any news on how this pad work is coming along / when it will finish? Will LC39A work start immediately after Sept 7th ish launch of X-37B or are they going to wait for fully operational status or even a launch?

'Around October 2017' works  :)  We really don't know for sure yet that the next east coast flight after OTV-5 will be SES-11 in October from SLC-40, but most of the info we've seen lately points in that direction (SES and Echostar statements showing SES-11 in Q4, no info yet that anything else will fly after OTV-5 and before SES-11, expectations that SLC-40 will be ready in the next month or two.)  I also don't really know what flight that 'NET October 14th' FCC permit application is for.  Maybe SES-11 won't be the next launch, or SLC-40 will hit a snag, or something else will come up that makes our assumptions invalid.

We're assuming SpaceX will have a pretty good idea about the state of SLC-40 by the time OTV-5 launches.  If they're confident it's close, and the next flight really isn't until October, then I'd expect them to start work on LC-39A.  For news about the pads just keep an eye on the launch site threads:
   Rebuilding SLC-40 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41060.0)
   Pad 39A - Transition to SpaceX Falcon Heavy debut - Thread 3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41015.0)



Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

The information crandles57 posted above is really all we know, and based on that I'm not even sure Space IL will be on a SpaceX flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/23/2017 02:19 AM
The document cited below has CRS-15 as 6/6/18:

Just stumbled across the Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's long-term planning schedule for Safety & Mission Success Reviews which shows tentative launch date for GRACE-FO of 2018-03-21.  That date was current based on an ELV milestone schedule from August 2nd.  I won't be too surprised if this date doesn't hold since it's still quite a ways out, especially since then they'd have a bunch of very high profile launches currently scheduled for that month: DM-1, TESS, GRACE-FO.  TESS has a harder deadline for launch and DM-1 is vital for their crew schedules.

Link to SMSR .pdf (https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/SMSR/smsr-long-term-schedule.pdf?sfvrsn=34)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/23/2017 02:57 AM
Also, there's only ONE Delta IV Canaveral launch currently scheduled between now and Solar Probe Plus on July 31, 2018--GPS III-1.

SPP is flying before GPS.

I'm guessing this means we shouldn't count on GPS III-2 launching in May  :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/23/2017 03:02 AM
Also, there's only ONE Delta IV Canaveral launch currently scheduled between now and Solar Probe Plus on July 31, 2018--GPS III-1.

SPP is flying before GPS.

I'm guessing this means we shouldn't count on GPS III-2 launching in May  :)
Sat is ready and like its sibling just waiting on Ground segment to be ready to support which is the hold up.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 08/23/2017 03:41 AM
The document cited below has CRS-15 as 6/6/18:

Just stumbled across the Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's long-term planning schedule for Safety & Mission Success Reviews which shows tentative launch date for GRACE-FO of 2018-03-21.  That date was current based on an ELV milestone schedule from August 2nd.  I won't be too surprised if this date doesn't hold since it's still quite a ways out, especially since then they'd have a bunch of very high profile launches currently scheduled for that month: DM-1, TESS, GRACE-FO.  TESS has a harder deadline for launch and DM-1 is vital for their crew schedules.

Link to SMSR .pdf (https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/SMSR/smsr-long-term-schedule.pdf?sfvrsn=34)

You should ignore the CRS dates from those documents, because they are suuuuper fluid.  Since it was published, they have likely shifted right at least 2 months. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/23/2017 10:02 AM
You should ignore the CRS dates from those documents, because they are suuuuper fluid.  Since it was published, they have likely shifted right at least 2 months.

Fair enough, but at the time I posted this thread had CRS-15 as NET Mar 18 so I thought it worth a mention.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/28/2017 10:56 AM
Quote
SES switches SpaceX and Arianespace launches to mitigate cost of satellite failure
by Peter B. de Selding | Aug 28, 2017

PARIS — Satellite fleet operator SES, which this year has suffered both predictable satellite-launch delays and unpredictable satellite failures, on Aug. 28 said it would move a satellite from launch-service provider SpaceX to Arianespace to minimize revenue losses.
As a result, the SES-14 satellite will launch aboard an Ariane 5 ECA rocket early in Q1 of next year rather than a less-clear Q1 launch date offered by SpaceX. SpaceX instead will launch the heavier SES-12 satellite, up to now slated for an Ariane 5, on a Falcon 9 vehicle in Q1 2018.

[...]

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/ses-switches-spacex-arianespace-launches-mitigate-cost-satellite-failure/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/31/2017 03:40 PM
[The Jakarta Post] Telkom to replace troubled satellite in August 2018 (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/08/31/telkom-to-replace-troubled-satellite-in-august-2018.html)
Quote
State-owned telecommunications company PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom Indonesia) plans to launch its Telkom 4 satellite in a year’s time to replace the troubled Telkom 1.

“We have signed a contract to launch the Telkom 4 satellite. It will be launched from the United States in August 2018,” said PT Telkom president director Alex J. Sinaga during a press conference with Communications and Information Minister Rudiantara in Jakarta on Wednesday.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/01/2017 06:46 PM
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Guess they are still with SpaceX, maybe on the Spaceflight GTO rideshare?

[Space.com] Calling the Moon: Startup to Put Cellphone Tower on the Moon (https://www.space.com/37753-calling-the-moon-cell-phone-tower.html)
Quote
PT Scientists has a launch contract for late 2018 with Space X as a secondary payload on the Falcon 9 rocket. Becker said the company believes it will be the first private entity to reach the surface of the moon, suggesting that none of the Google Lunar X Prize participants are likely to meet the December 2017 deadline for the competition. (PT Scientists itself withdrew from the Google Lunar X Prize earlier this year due to the time constraints of the competition.)

The Falcon 9 will carry the team's spacecraft, Alina, to the geostationary transfer orbit, a highly elliptical Earth orbit whose highest point is 26,000 miles (42,000 kilometers). From there, Alina will continue on its own to the moon.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/04/2017 09:38 PM
Tweet from Jeff Foust: (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/904817715956903936)
Quote
Kacific announces that it’s selected SpaceX to launch its Boeing-built Kacific-1 broadband satellite on a Falcon 9 in 2019.

Quote
Kacific selects SpaceX to provide launch service (http://kacific.com/kacific-selects-spacex-to-provide-launch-service/)

Kacific Broadband Satellites Group (Kacific) has selected SpaceX as the launch provider for its Kacific-1 satellite, which is being built by The Boeing Company.

Kacific-1 will be launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9, a two-stage orbit-class rocket designed from the ground-up for maximum reliability and reusability.

“SpaceX has a breadth of vision that appeals to us,” says Christian Patouraux, Kacific CEO. “The company is committed to changing the way people think about space and the possibilities it represents. Signing with SpaceX as our launch service provider is a major step towards delivering our own vision. We look forward to seeing Kacific-1 atop a Falcon 9 Rocket in 2019.”

“SpaceX is proud to partner with Kacific on the milestone launch of the company’s first satellite, Kacific-1.” said Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO of SpaceX. “We appreciate their confidence in our proven capabilities and look forward to delivering their satellite to orbit.”

In February 2017 Kacific placed an order with The Boeing Company for the Kacific-1 satellite. Based on the reliable 702 satellite platform, Kacific-1 is designed to deliver high speed broadband via 56 narrow Ka-band beams, with the most powerful signal level ever achieved in a commercial satellite in the South East Asia and Pacific regions.

About Kacific

The Kacific Broadband Satellites Group is a satellite operator developing a high-speed broadband offering for underserved, remote and rural markets with disseminated pockets of population. It addresses the gap in supply with specifically designed satellites using the latest multi-beam and high throughput space communications and ground technology transmitting over the Ka Band.

Using cost-effective technology and a lean business model Kacific aims to provide better broadband quality at significantly less than current retail prices, fostering greater internet usage and fuelling economic growth and improvements in service delivery across covered regions, with its first deployment focusing on South East Asia and the Pacific. 

Kacific’s headquarters are in Singapore with main operations out of Vanuatu.

For more information, visit www.kacific.com


Kacific-1/JCSat-18 on Gunter's Space Page (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/jcsat-18_kacific-1.htm)
Boeing press release for satellite order (http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2017-02-20-New-Boeing-Satellite-Will-Increase-Connectivity-throughout-Asia-Pacific)
Kacific press release for satellite order (http://kacific.com/kacific-places-order-with-boeing-for-a-high-throughput-satellite/)
SpaceNews story on satellite order (http://spacenews.com/kacific-overcomes-ex-im-setback-by-teaming-with-jsat-on-boeing-condosat-order/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/06/2017 09:50 PM
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/07/2017 05:59 PM
Saving a snapshot for future reference.  Someone should remind me to do this a couple times a year.
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0)
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0)

Sites:
      C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ---- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43199.0)
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS 10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0)LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0)GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0)GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0)LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035LCRS 11 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0)GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036SIridium NEXT (Flight 2) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)GTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS 12 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42878.0)LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-7F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)LEO5400C-39A42
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-10-04  0606/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43217.0)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10F91031.2?SES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)GTO5400C-39A44
2017-Q4F9.SKoreasat-5A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)GTO3500C .
2017-11-lateF9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-Q4F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43435.0)GTO6092C.
2017-Q4H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42705.0)..C-39A(50)
2017-12F9.LCRS 13 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.0)LEO~10kC.
2017-12F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)GTO4000C.
2017-12F9..Bangabandhu (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)GTO~3500C.
2017-12F9..Paz & co-passenger (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)SSO1400V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)SSO.V-4E.
2018F9.SEs'hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)GTO~3kC.
2018-01-late or 02F9.LCRS 14LEO~10kC(55)
2018-02F9.?CCtCap DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)LEO.C-39A.
2018-H1H.LLSArabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)GTO~6kC-39A.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43648.0)GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9..NASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)HEO325C .
2018-03-21F9..Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)PLR~6kV-4E.
2018-03F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-04F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43466.0)GTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 Vantage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43465.0)GTO>5400C.
2018-04-30 (NET)H.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III A-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33921.0)MEO3880C.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.LCRS 15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passenger (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)GTO5000C.
2018-08F9..Telkom 4GTO.C(68)
2018-08F9.LCRS 16LEO~10kC.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)SSO1400V-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS 17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q4F9..GiSat-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)GTO~6kC/B.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS 18LEO~10kC.
2019H.???SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42421.0)TLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS 19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS IIIA-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)MEO3880C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43687.0)GTO~6k+C/B.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C/B(70)
2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C/B(69)
2021-04F9..SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)LEO2000V-4E.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Northrop Grumman, Bigelow

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.0)
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0) / Public Core Spotting (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.0)
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
Viewing flights from Vandenberg (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.0) / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral (http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html)
Upcoming SpaceX Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1690190#msg1690190) / General Industry Talks (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43382)
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42389.0)

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(55) CRS-14 : EnduroSat One (https://www.spaceedu.net/endurosat-one/) @ARRL (http://www.arrl.org/news/first-bulgarian-amateur-radio-cubesat-to-launch-in-2018)
(68) Telkom 4 links (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1680958#msg1680958) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/telkom-4.htm)
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 (http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2016/02/10/dankberg-viasat-3-satellites-will-have-more-capacity-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/) SpaceNews 2/10/2016 (http://spacenews.com/viasat-details-1-4-billion-global-ka-band-satellite-broadband-strategy-to-oust-incumbent-players/) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428) update (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1713405#msg1713405)
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release (https://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20160728.html) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/sxm-7.htm)

Possible future payloads:
Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-juggling-two-launches-says-spacex-to-return-to-flight-in-december/) / Airbus contract (https://airbusdefenceandspace.com/newsroom/news-and-features/airbus-defence-and-space-signs-contract-with-inmarsat-to-build-two-next-generation-mobile-communications-satellites/) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/inmarsat-6.htm) / Space Intel mention (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/interview-rupert-pearce-ceo-inmarsat)

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1655839#msg1655839) - EELV (https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=925e366fba301e452496dfd442d6a800&tab=core&_cview=0), First 5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43266.0)

L2 notes on manifest:

Recent Edits:
Sep 06 Added Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1720164#msg1720164).  Removed line items for Eutelsat and Inmarsat, added list at the end for customers with unspecified contracts.
Sep 04 Added Kacific-1/JCSat-18 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1719252#msg1719252) in second half of 2019
Aug 31 Telkom 4 moved from June to August 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1718151#msg1718151)
Aug 28 SES-14 switched to Ariane 5 launch.  SES-12 switched to F9 launch Q1-2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1717074#msg1717074).
Aug 25 Moved Iridium Flight 3 to October 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43217.msg1716192#msg1716192).
Aug 23 Removed Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, SSO-D (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1713405#msg1713405)
Aug 22 GRACE-FO March 21, 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.msg1715144#msg1715144).  CRS-14 late January 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1715152#msg1715152)?, CRS-15 June 2018.
Aug 13 Moved CRS-13 to early December (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.msg1712288#msg1712288)


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 09/07/2017 07:13 PM
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

So, at least four GTOs recently added... possibly five, plus Kacific this week.
Must be making impression on the market that backlog is under control.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/07/2017 07:18 PM
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

So, at least four GTOs recently added... possibly five, plus Kacific this week.
Must be making impression on the market that backlog is under control.

If the four or five you're referring too are the ones Skyrocket listed, only the Sirius flights are really new.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 09/07/2017 07:22 PM
Aren't they additions to the manifest this year? 
New orders this year?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/07/2017 07:29 PM
Aren't they additions to the manifest this year? 
New orders this year?

Telkom-4 is this year (we heard about it a few months ago).  PSN-6 (SSL) we've known about for over a year.  Eutelsat is one of those old contracts that's never been assigned a firm payload, speculation was it would be the Eutelsat Quantum satellite but apparently there is political pressure to launch that one on a European rocket since it has government funding.

edit: the Eutelsat contract was from early 2016 for either Quantum or something else...
SpaceNews article (http://spacenews.com/with-eutelsat-win-spacex-has-business-with-all-5-top-satellite-fleet-owners/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Norm38 on 09/08/2017 04:39 PM
I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Ragmar on 09/08/2017 05:04 PM
Do we have any idea when the SXM-7 and SXM-8 launches were awarded to SpaceX or the potential value? Just a surprise to see these going on a Falcon 9 since previously they've only launched on a Zenit or Proton vehicle.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 09/08/2017 09:32 PM


I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

I know you meant it as a joke, but September is the peak of the hurricane season. Maybe this factored into the mission planning.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cscott on 09/09/2017 12:24 AM


I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

I know you meant it as a joke, but September is the peak of the hurricane season. Maybe this factored into the mission planning.
It would be interesting to know what fraction of the critical path through September was allocated to: expected weather disruption (check!), Hawthorne/McGregor work (unaffected), or Cape work (likely to be delayed).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/11/2017 07:16 PM
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018)
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat (https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat)
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4 (http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cppetrie on 09/11/2017 07:24 PM
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018)
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat (https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat)
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4 (http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4)
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Ragmar on 09/11/2017 07:38 PM
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018)
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat (https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat)
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4 (http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4)
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

I thought they had already confirmed they were using a recovered booster?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Ragmar on 09/11/2017 07:46 PM
Looks like SAOCOM 1A is now June 2018.

Quote
This Italian-Argentine system will be complete when the two SAOCOM 1A and SAOCOM 1B satellites are launched, which will be put into orbit in June 2018 and at the beginning of 2019, respectively. Dr. Laura Frulla, principal investigator of the SAOCOM mission, stressed that "this international summit is very useful for the meeting of the institutions of the different countries".

http://www.losandes.com.ar/article/cumbre-en-buenos-aires-se-pueden-anticipar-catastrofes-naturales-con-informacion-satelital
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 09/11/2017 07:59 PM
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018)
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat (https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat)
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4 (http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4)
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

I thought they had already confirmed they were using a recovered booster?
Maybe if they take a block 3? LOL.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/12/2017 05:02 PM
Here is the math.

Using Blk 5's that have flown only in 2018, and that only BLk'5 will fly in 2018.

That each Blk 5 will be capable of 3 flights 1 as new and 2 as used without much refurbishment work. Mostly just inspections and tests, little or no hardware swap-out.

That the initial quarter of 2018 (2018 Q1) launches 4 new Blk'5. The build rate of 1st stages remains at 4 per quarter. The build rate of US starting in 2018 is increased each quarter until reaching a build rate of 12 per quarter by 2018 Q4.

Then by EOY 2018 there will have been 32 launches, with 67% of then in the last quarter being used. This used to total rate will become steady state such that a total of 48 launches is possible in 2019.

This is without requiring more manufacturing floor space.

By decreasing the 1st stage build rate to 3/quarter and increasing the US build rate to 16/quarter. By increasing the re-flight rate for each booster by 1 to 1 new and 3 used flights for a total of 4, enables a total number of launches per year of 64 also without the need for more floor space. The used to total flights rate will then be 75%.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/12/2017 05:30 PM
This thread is really not for speculation on launch rates, customer adoption rates of reuse, etc.  It is for discussing which flights are on the manifest and when they will fly.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Ragmar on 09/12/2017 08:05 PM
http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-picks-h2-a-to-launch-its-first-sixth-gen-satellite/

Looks like Inmarsat-6 F1 is no longer a FH launch--remove from the manifest (even though it's in the speculation section)?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/15/2017 09:11 AM
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 35s seconds ago

Taiwan NSPO: Six US/Taiwan Formosat-7/COSMIC-2 sats to launch Q2 2018 on @SpaceX Falcon Heavy; will be 1st launch after Nov FH demo flight.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/908619097189027840

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/19/2017 03:44 PM
SpaceX submitted another STA permit application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80333&RequestTimeout=1000) for using a landing radar, this time for mission 1373 on the east coast.  Timing would suggest maybe it's for Koreasat 5A.  (That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: stcks on 09/19/2017 05:40 PM
(That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

Where is Raul's interpretation?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/19/2017 06:46 PM
(That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

Where is Raul's interpretation?

Part of it was in PM's we exchanged, but basically it boiled down to whether or not the F9-35 permit was ever used.  Raul thought it wasn't, which would make the numbers line up better.  It gets a bit confusing since SpaceX stopped publicly saying which mission number was used for a flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: stcks on 09/19/2017 09:13 PM
Part of it was in PM's we exchanged, but basically it boiled down to whether or not the F9-35 permit was ever used.  Raul thought it wasn't, which would make the numbers line up better.  It gets a bit confusing since SpaceX stopped publicly saying which mission number was used for a flight.

Ah ok. I was hoping for some kind of algorithm to make sense of them.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Raul on 09/20/2017 01:37 PM
Btw, you can always find my pairing of FCC application mission numbering (M13xx) with mission name in this Spx map (https://goo.gl/Twc5G2) - layer "Falcon 9 v1.2. flights", or in last hazard area maps (#5 (https://goo.gl/umnY2Q), #6 (https://goo.gl/ErbkUw)).

In case of all past missions.. booster recovery position, initially issued in FCC application just under that mission numbering, later matches with hazard area issued before each mission or AIS data of recovery vessel during mission.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: DaveJes1979 on 09/28/2017 06:15 PM
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

Also, there are zero Falcon Heavies scheduled for Vandenberg.  Did they scrap plans to make the Vandenberg pad compatible with Heavy?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 09/28/2017 06:16 PM
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

Also, there are zero Falcon Heavies scheduled for Vandenberg.  Did they scrap plans to make the Vandenberg pad compatible with Heavy?

Need to sell a launch for a west coast FH first.  Why spend the money, any FH launch from VAFB will have a long enough lead time to complete the mods.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Raul on 09/28/2017 10:05 PM
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

According to EverydayAstronaut (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/6vihsl/welcome_to_the_rspacex_formosat5_official_launch/dm2asjf/) first RTLS at VAFB should be approved for Iridium-4 mission.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 09/29/2017 02:52 PM
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 09/29/2017 03:40 PM
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

I'm thinking Bangabandhu and PAZ slip to January.

Also, which is making me really confused about what SpaceX is doing with the pads right now, SpaceX filed FCC permit applications today moving TWO flights from pad 40 back to 39A.  One of them appears to be Koreasat 5A, which was obvious.  The other would appear to be CRS-13, which I find a bit strange.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: russianhalo117 on 09/29/2017 03:53 PM
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

I'm thinking Bangabandhu and PAZ slip to January.

Also, which is making me really confused about what SpaceX is doing with the pads right now, SpaceX filed FCC permit applications today moving TWO flights from pad 40 back to 39A.  One of them appears to be Koreasat 5A, which was obvious.  The other would appear to be CRS-13, which I find a bit strange.
PAZ has to Target a specific spot to fly with its DLR companion satellites so that they can do joint science.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ZachS09 on 09/29/2017 04:01 PM
Now that I'm somewhat convinced that the Falcon Heavy Demo flight will be delayed into early 2018, I'm guessing that the following missions will round out 2017:

1: SES-11/EchoStar 105

2: Iridium-NEXT F3

3: Koreasat 5A

4: Iridium-NEXT F4

5: SpaceX CRS-13

6: Hispasat 30W-6

7: SES-16/GovSat
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 09/29/2017 04:11 PM
To go from the pace of 20 launches a year to 30 will require significant changes and improvements in testing, processing and launching. 

2018 will be excited, FH, Dragon 2, Block 5, launch rate.

Exciting times.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Tass on 09/30/2017 05:55 PM
The 2022 mission of the BFR to Mars!!! should be made red in the top post.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/02/2017 12:30 AM
Updates from SpaceflightNow schedule:

Koreasat 5A - Oct. 30, 3:34-5:58 EDT
CRS-13 Nov. 28
CRS-14 Feb. 9
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/02/2017 12:48 AM
There are a few changes on the SpaceflightNow schedule that weren't listed at the top.  One of them is Crew Dragon Demo 1 moving to April.  This really wouldn't be a surprise (frankly I would find it encouraging if Crew Dragon is only slipping a couple more months at this point, and SpaceX is already doing other NASA launches in February and March).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: First Mate Rummey on 10/04/2017 04:09 PM
You may want to add 2 cargo BFR in 2022 and 2 cargo + 2 crewed BFR in 2024... just to adhere to recent plan.  :D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/04/2017 04:17 PM
You may want to add 2 cargo BFR in 2022 and 2 cargo + 2 crewed BFR in 2024... just to adhere to recent plan.  :D

No. I'll add more BFR flights in a few years if they appear to be sticking with that schedule.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 10/05/2017 05:05 AM
Seems unlikely, but a cubesat copassenger on CRS-14 (Overview 1A and 1B) suggested a launch date of 1/26/18.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZHVuAYnKHu/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Olaf on 10/05/2017 05:55 AM
Seems unlikely, but a cubesat copassenger on CRS-14 (Overview 1A and 1B) suggested a launch date of 1/26/18.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZHVuAYnKHu/
That seems to be an old date, the newest one is 2/9/18.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Welsh Dragon on 10/05/2017 07:46 AM
I'm assuming you mean February, not September? People need to make their dates unambiguous.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SmallKing on 10/05/2017 08:30 AM
I'm assuming you mean February, not September? People need to make their dates unambiguous.
February
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SmallKing on 10/05/2017 08:33 AM
Small update from SFN schedule, Bangabandhu 1 delayed to Feb 2018
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/05/2017 03:22 PM
DM-1 April 2018, DM-2 Aug 2018 (Boeing-1 Aug 2018, Boeing-2 Nov 2018)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/09/2017 06:26 PM
Quote
Owner #hisdesat Spain: @SpaceX sets Jan 30 VAFB launch of 1400-kg @AirbusDefence-built Paz high-res SAR Earth obs sat to 514-km polar orbit.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/917451649177739264
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 10/12/2017 01:17 PM
Quote from: SpaceFlightNow
SES is considering launching its next satellite — SES 16 developed in partnership with the government of Luxembourg — with a reused Falcon 9 booster in January.

Article Link (https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/10/12/spacex-launches-its-15th-mission-of-the-year/)

SES 16 slips to January and on a re-used booster (as I think can be expected for most SES flights from here on out).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: abaddon on 10/12/2017 01:29 PM
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Cinder on 10/12/2017 10:52 PM
-confirmed that Boca is explicitly for BFR
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 10/12/2017 10:57 PM
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

If you're referring to the SES launch moving to January and on a reused booster, that may also be dealing with booster production limitations.

Maybe someone is trying to slip in a launch of Starlink test sats or Google X Prize rovers.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 10/12/2017 11:51 PM
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

If you're referring to the SES launch moving to January and on a reused booster, that may also be dealing with booster production limitations.

Maybe someone is trying to slip in a launch of Starlink test sats or Google X Prize rovers.

This is Off Topic for this thread, people.
We are discussing what is going to be launched when, not "why".  There are plenty of threads in which to discuss that.
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: saliva_sweet on 10/14/2017 11:40 AM
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: M.E.T. on 10/14/2017 11:53 AM
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

If you're referring to the SES launch moving to January and on a reused booster, that may also be dealing with booster production limitations.

Maybe someone is trying to slip in a launch of Starlink test sats or Google X Prize rovers.

This is Off Topic for this thread, people.
We are discussing what is going to be launched when, not "why".  There are plenty of threads in which to discuss that.
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

I might have misread, but the report on Tom Ochinero's comments quoted him as stating there are 5 more launches planned for this year in addition to the Falcon Heavy Demo launch. If so, that would suggest a missing launch on our current predicted manifest for 2017.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: saliva_sweet on 10/14/2017 11:58 AM
I might have misread, but the report on Tom Ochinero's comments quoted him as stating there are 5 more launches planned for this year in addition to the Falcon Heavy Demo launch. If so, that would suggest a missing launch on our current predicted manifest for 2017.

IIRC he said that a couple of hours before SES-11 launch, so it's unclear whether he counted that one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: M.E.T. on 10/14/2017 12:00 PM
I might have misread, but the report on Tom Ochinero's comments quoted him as stating there are 5 more launches planned for this year in addition to the Falcon Heavy Demo launch. If so, that would suggest a missing launch on our current predicted manifest for 2017.

IIRC he said that a couple of hours before SES-11 launch, so it's unclear whether he counted that one.

Ah. That would explain it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ChrisGebhardt on 10/14/2017 12:58 PM
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000

So this would be which known satellite?   Hispasat is way too heavy and GTO, so that can't be RTLS.  So it seems there is indeed an unknown payload out there.

Also...

Coming 12 days after Koreasat, this pushes 39A back again for Falcon Heavy.

Whatever is indeed ahead of CRS-13, that will make 30 Oct - 28 Nov a busy time period with 3 Falcon 9s from Kennedy/Cape in 30 days.

(EDITED: Hit post too quick before completing my thought that Hispasat is too heavy for RTLS.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 10/14/2017 01:02 PM
Hispasat is too heavy to RTLS. It will probably be an expendable flight. So, this FCC application points to another payload.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/14/2017 01:44 PM
FCC APPLICATIONS ARE NET DATES, NOT LAUNCH DATES.

edit:  The start date on the application we think is for Hispasat 30W-6 is June 30.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: saliva_sweet on 10/14/2017 01:53 PM
FCC APPLICATIONS ARE NET DATES, NOT LAUNCH DATES.

Yup, poor phrasing on my part. Still expected to go ASAP from 39A before it's taken over by the heavy.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 10/14/2017 04:27 PM
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000)

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000)

And now we do
Good
My personal list had something in what nowadays looks like a big gap at 28 days.
My objection above was people discussing WHY SpaceX had a gap.
There are other threads for those discussions.
Now if we can just figure out what the payload is (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.msg1737137#msg1737137).
My list had Hispasat in this gap but Chris G says (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.msg1737199#msg1737199) Hispasat is too heavy for the permitted RTLS.

edit:  We are all posting the same things at the same time.  I linked to Chris G's post just as he cross posted it. 

Gongora: Do you mean the permit thought to be Hispasat 30W-6 is for NEXT June 30, as in 2018?
Should you move Hispasat down the list, but leave the line, change the date to the 10th, and put on a likely core number?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Norm38 on 10/14/2017 11:08 PM
So with the mystery payload, SpaceX may make 20 flights for the year after all. Suddenly the goal of 30 next year doesn't seem like such a stretch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/14/2017 11:24 PM
Gongora: Do you mean the permit thought to be Hispasat 30W-6 is for NEXT June 30, as in 2018?
Should you move Hispasat down the list, but leave the line, change the date to the 10th, and put on a likely core number?

No, the FCC permit we think would be for Hispasat has a start date of June 30, 2017.  It's valid through the end of the year (and is for 39A, so who knows, maybe it gets replaced with a different permit if they change the pad).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Salo on 10/15/2017 07:22 AM
http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2017/06/22/cpi-will-provide-antenna-systems-skyvisions-gisat-1/
Quote
CPI expects delivery and installation of the antennas to begin in mid-2018 and to be completed in 2019.

http://www.boeing.com/space/boeing-satellite-family/index.page#/launch-schedule
Quote
GiSAT-1    702    Global IP    2019    Falcon 9
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Salo on 10/15/2017 08:47 AM
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/
Quote
Date: June
Mission: TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 10/15/2017 04:16 PM
Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

Once again, the purpose of this chart is not an attempt to predict, but to visualize the launch cadence in near future and possible schedule conflicts.

Couple specific questions:

We do know that SpaceX CAN do launches only 10-12 days apart on LC-39A. What do you think about Vandenberg's SLC-4E? It still has old style TEL (open type) - may this slow down the operation?

Is there any general clues on *specialization* of the Cape pads? All I know is that LC-39A will be used for all FH launches and all CCT-related launches. Any other clues would be helpful for the chart.
For example - if military launches will prefer SLC-40?
Also - will NASA prefer to use LC-39A for CRS flights?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/15/2017 04:34 PM
Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

ORS-6 should be changed to SSO-A (I think that will launch a couple months later but not sure yet.)  SAOCOM-1A has slipped to June.  The Vandenberg schedule is going to be interesting in the first half of 2018 but I doubt they need to do rapid turnarounds.  I'd be surprised if they try a pace faster than 3 launches in two months at any point on the west coast next year.  It's highly unlikely that all of the flights we currently have listed for the first half of 2018 actually get launched in the first half of 2018.

At the Cape I would still put TESS in March.

SpaceX will still be constrained by launch vehicle availablility for much (all?) of 2018 so expect slips to the right on a lot of the flights.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: mn on 10/16/2017 03:20 PM
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.

Here's the latest I can find on SpaceIL (this was published on September 17):

https://www.israel21c.org/spanish-firm-delivers-shell-for-spaceils-race-to-the-moon/

Quote
Teams at SpaceIL and IAI will now enter the assembly and integration phase. The launch is expected to take place in 2018 on a rocket from Elon Musk’s private space transport company, SpaceX
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Chris Bergin on 10/16/2017 05:27 PM
Chris Gebhardt's overview article on upcoming:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/spacex-zuma-iridium-4-aims-vandenberg-landing/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: almightycat on 10/18/2017 01:48 PM
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 10/18/2017 02:07 PM
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

Something of note:
- AMOS-17, ordered from Boeing, is the replacement satellite for AMOS-5 (built by the Russians and failed after less than 4 years in service)
- As late as this July the decision of whether to build AMOS-8 inside house by IAI or to order it aboard has yet to be decided! (http://www.jerusalemonline.com/high-tech/will-israel-build-the-amos-8-satellite-29623)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/18/2017 02:13 PM
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 10/18/2017 02:16 PM
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

With 2018 already full beyond the 30 missions Elon suggested at IAC, the 2019 manifest starts to fill up.

(http://spaceflight101.com/spx/wp-content/uploads/sites/113/2017/09/IAC2017-Musk-7.jpg)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/18/2017 02:19 PM
I'm not sure 2018 is beyond 30 missions yet, I think I'm going to remove the Spaceflight Industries entries after SSO-A until we hear whether/when those are actually booked.  When the GPS satellite will launch is also kinda uncertain right now.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 10/18/2017 02:20 PM
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

They got the AMOS-6 launch for $50 mln. (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iai-amos-6-failure-sent-message-israeli-government-satellite-autonomy/)

Quote
Spacecom was an early customer for SpaceX with Amos-6, and paid about $50 million for the launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/18/2017 03:31 PM
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480)

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: docmordrid on 10/18/2017 03:54 PM
Hmmmm.....in an article about the ZUMA launch

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/news/a28661/spacex-mystery-launch-november-2017/

Quote
>
It's also possible that SpaceX's last mission of the year, the Spanish communications satellite Hispasat, could fly on the inaugural launch of the Falcon Heavy rocket.
>
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: abaddon on 10/18/2017 04:07 PM
I'd take that with a huge grain of salt...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/18/2017 04:32 PM
Popular Mechanics is not a credible source for our manifest information.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 10/18/2017 04:36 PM
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480)

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/19/2017 12:17 PM
So Iridium NEXT-4 now NET Dec 22 on a flight proven booster (possibly 1036.2 but not confirmed):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/iridium-4-flight-proven-falcon-9-rtls-vandenberg-delayed/ (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/iridium-4-flight-proven-falcon-9-rtls-vandenberg-delayed/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Rebel44 on 10/19/2017 08:15 PM
SpaceX has won a contract to launch the Jason-CS ocean science mission (aka Sentinel-6A) on an Falcon 9 in Nov 2020

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/921106460964196352
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-sentinel-6a-mission
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: dror on 10/19/2017 08:33 PM
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480)

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.

Yes, that's what it says.
Google translate, like Jim, is usually right.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 10/20/2017 08:48 PM
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/20/2017 09:03 PM
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80736&RequestTimeout=1000) at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 10/20/2017 10:38 PM
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80736&RequestTimeout=1000) at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

Ah, I see the problem, my RSS feed registered them being granted today. I remember that now, CRS-13 was originally Nov 28 so it's the only logical answer.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jfallen on 10/24/2017 12:22 PM
Looking at the schedule, there is a window at the end of December where SpaceX could have a rocket vertical on all three pads at the same time.    Iridium on SLC-4E, Hispasat on SLC-40, and FH on LC-39A.

That would be quite a Christmas card for Elon to send out.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Salo on 10/25/2017 04:56 PM
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 10/25/2017 11:03 PM
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 10/25/2017 11:14 PM
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.

Watched the full livestream, it's available here now (https://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/hearings?ID=C77B42B7-8EB3-4BD1-B309-0AC311639DAB). Also wrote a brief summary of the SpaceX bits (https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starlink-satellite-broadband-internet-service-2020/).

Per the manifest thread-relevant question, Ms. Cooper was gently pushed for a timeline and said that limited service would start once 800 or so satellites were launched, and that the timeframe for that was 2020-2021. So between 24-36 months to launch ~800, 2024 to launch all ~4000.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 10/26/2017 05:10 AM
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: yokem55 on 10/26/2017 06:14 AM
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.
It will help having 2 East coast pads. If they can launch from each twice a month, that's 4 flights of capacity per month. The bigger issues will be upper stages, payload dispensers, payload processing, completed satellites, fairings, and after deployment checkout and commissioning. Getting that process and it routine down will take a while to ramp up as well.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Kenp51d on 10/26/2017 02:44 PM
Does Halthrone have or will have the ability to produce that number of upper stages + pluss the number required for paying rides?
If BFR hits schedule my question maybe a bit mute.

Sent from my XT1565 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/26/2017 03:00 PM
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 10/26/2017 04:18 PM
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cppetrie on 10/26/2017 04:23 PM
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
I think current speculation is that they are co-manifested with PAZ at the end of January.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.40
Edit: added link to PAZ discussion thread
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Robotbeat on 10/27/2017 03:48 AM
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.
No, but this does answer questions about whether SpaceX's manifest in 2019 will be full (30 flights or more) or not.

I think it means that they're planning to launch a whole bunch of satellites, so they at least think they'll be full.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SmallKing on 10/28/2017 04:56 AM
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 10/28/2017 12:11 PM
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/

Yes, that happened quite a while ago.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SmallKing on 10/30/2017 12:49 PM
NSPO still hopes to launch Formosat-7 sats in May/June, 2018
https://www.inside.com.tw/2017/10/30/formosat-5-cmos-modify
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 11/06/2017 06:41 AM
Quote
The @AMOSSpacecom Amos-17 Ku-/C-/Ka-band sat completes CDR at @Boeing, sched launch to 17E in early 2019 on @SpaceX Falcon 9 w/ 19-yr life.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/927428797657313280 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/927428797657313280)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/08/2017 05:35 PM
(found via tweet from Jeff Foust (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/928319109728817152))

Quote
[Reuters] Turkey's Erdogan, Tesla's Musk discuss cooperation with Turkish firms (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-autos/turkeys-erdogan-teslas-musk-discuss-cooperation-with-turkish-firms-idUSKBN1D82G5?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social)
...
Turkey aims to launch the Turksat 5A satellite in 2020 and the 5B in 2021. In October, Airbus (AIR.PA) submitted the best bid in a tender to build the Turkish satellites.

Kalin said an agreement would be signed with Airbus on Thursday, and Musk would also be present at the meeting as a subcontractor.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/08/2017 07:48 PM
Tweet from Emre Kelly (https://twitter.com/EmreKelly/status/928352657173045248):
Quote
I spy...Falcon 9 rockets with landing legs and...Turksat payloads? AP reported that Turksat 5A and 5B could fly in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Photo (via @GettyImages) shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with @SpaceX CEO @ElonMusk today.

Hopefully we'll be adding some more flights to the manifest soon...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Kryten on 11/09/2017 09:59 AM
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/928575192275697665
Quote
As part of @AirbusSpace 2-satellite in-orbit delivery contract, Airbus gave customer @turksat launch options. @SpaceX was chosen for both Turksat 5A in 2020 & 5B in 2021. Shown below: 5B, w/ Ka-HTS.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: speedevil on 11/10/2017 12:57 PM
I note on the manifest BFR is penciled in for 2022.

link (https://trajbrowser.arc.nasa.gov/traj_browser.php?maxMag=25&maxOCC=4&chk_target_list=on&target_list=mars&mission_class=oneway&mission_type=flyby&LD1=2021&LD2=2023&maxDT=200&DTunit=days&maxDV=8&min=DT&wdw_width=-1&submit=Search#a_load_results)

Is it sane to change this to September 2022, as the comments "
Quote
But that's our goal, is to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous. The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years, so every two years there's an opportunity for just to fly to Mars.
make it clear they're not considering ridiculously high energy trajectories.

Sep 26 2022 in principle would allow a Dec 31 2022 landing.
Of course this would be NET, but a NET date which includes Jan 2022 seems wrong.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/10/2017 01:56 PM
A BFR launching to Mars in 2022 is highly aspirational.  I'm not worried about putting a more exact date on it.  If it's still looking possible in three or four years then we can start refining the date on the schedule.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: S.Paulissen on 11/11/2017 03:42 AM
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 11/11/2017 01:58 PM
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

All the payloads going up in December for starters. We don't usually hear that payloads are complete until they are shipped to the launch site and we don't even get those reports.

It seems likely that SES-16 (GovSat-1) and SES-12 are both ready to fly. The SES CEO has talked about how long their payloads tend to sit in storage as one reason to go with reused Falcon 9s.

NASA's TESS I think has been complete for awhile now.

Iridium has more satellites built. However, they are constrained by the difficult task of replacing the old sats with the new ones and keeping their coverage going. So, I don't think they can put up a new batch any faster than every 40 or 60 days.

Es'hail-2 and Bangabandhu-1 may also be complete as these were expected to originally fly if Q4 2017 and should fly in Q1 2018.

Edit: I expect STP-2 and Arabsat 6A are also ready to fly since FH was expected to fly in 2017 prior to the Amos-6 incident.

PAZ is complete as it was supposed to fly on the now defunct Ukrainian-Russian Dneper vehicle in 2016.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ChrisGebhardt on 11/11/2017 02:02 PM
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

Iridium has more satellites built. However, they are constrained by the difficult task of replacing the old sats with the new ones and keeping their coverage going. So, I don't think they can put up a new batch any faster than every 40 or 60 days.


This is precisely correct. :) 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 11/11/2017 02:24 PM
"40 or 60"... IMprecisely correct. Hehe.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 11/12/2017 03:26 AM
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

NASA's TESS I think has been complete for awhile now.


TESS isn't ready yet, it's currently going through final testing.  But, that's mainly because testing is scheduled to track with launch date.  So, if the launch had been earlier, the testing would be done earlier as well.  So, this is sort of splitting the difference between "waiting for a rocket" and not.  I wouldn't be surprised to learn that many payloads are similarly scheduled. 

source on TESS being in testing currently: http://spacenews.com/nasa-trims-reserves-and-shifts-schedules-to-find-astrophysics-cost-savings/ 
Quote
... with the spacecraft currently undergoing a series of tests,...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SmallKing on 11/12/2017 03:37 AM
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from
pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST. The launch window stretches two hours to 10:00pm EST.
The first stage of the rocket will land back at Cape Canaveral about eight minutes after liftoff. After
that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station,
CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST. The launch
window will be instantaneous. The launch time gets approx. 22-26 minutes earlier each day. The first
stage of the rocket will land back at Cape Canaveral around eight minutes after liftoff. This could be
followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back
at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD. Then, a Falcon 9 is slated
to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: DreamyPickle on 11/12/2017 06:10 PM
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST.

After that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station, CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST.

This could be followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD.

Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.

And a Falcon 9 is slated to take a Dragon capsule on the next resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-14, on February 9, roughly around 11am or noon EST.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

If SES-16 is the next launch after CRS-14 then it might conflict with the Heavy Launch for the barge. Having to go back to shore, unload the booster and sail out again might take several days. The minimal interval between SES-16 and FH-Demo might be as long as one week.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/12/2017 06:30 PM
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST.

After that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station, CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST.

This could be followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD.

Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.

And a Falcon 9 is slated to take a Dragon capsule on the next resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-14, on February 9, roughly around 11am or noon EST.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

He does some of the official photography for SpaceX, he's generally a good source for near-term schedule information.

There are going to be months where SpaceX only launches once from the East Coast, especially when they're launching from the West Coast that month.  The flight rate isn't that high yet.  Even if they do launch 30 times next year that wouldn't be twice from the Cape every month.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 11/12/2017 08:13 PM
How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

He does some of the official photography for SpaceX, he's generally a good source for near-term schedule information.

There are going to be months where SpaceX only launches once from the East Coast, especially when they're launching from the West Coast that month.  The flight rate isn't that high yet.  Even if they do launch 30 times next year that wouldn't be twice from the Cape every month.

Also, December is an exceptional month in terms of pad uncertainty. LC-40 still needs to be put through its paces as a new pad, bug fixes are probable and bigger kinks possible. 39A is also undergoing significant changes for Falcon Heavy, and SpaceX seems intent to aggressively push for a Falcon Heavy launch in Dec or Jan.

All that while still aiming to launch CRS-13 and Iridium-4 in the same month, and it is unsurprising that Hispasat has been pushed back a bit! SpaceX's pad crews are only human ;D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 11/12/2017 08:50 PM
It seems clear there is likely a second launch opportunity from SLC-40 in December after CRS-13 if we are only considering demonstrated cadence.  But this ignores the fact that the East Coast launch team is going to be working the Falcon Heavy launch quite heavily.  All the activities around integrating and testing a new vehicle for the first time, including multiple dry runs and rehearsals.  If FH goes uber-smoothly and "slips left" then maybe they can still sneak Hispasat in under the wire.  But, with the year-end holidays in there too,  why bother straining everyone for just a few days worth of advantage?  The benefit of being able to get an additional launch within the calendar year is purely nominal (non-space launch usage) and quite arbitrary.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: zubenelgenubi on 11/13/2017 04:29 PM
Further re: speculation that Hispasat 30W-6 could still launch from Canaveral SLC-40 in the very last days of 2017:
Apparently, but not conclusively, no.

Cross-posts from the Hispasat 30W-6 discussion thread:
Has the payload left SSL in Palo Alto and been delivered to SpaceX operations at Cape Canaveral for pre-launch processing?  (I know our NSF contributors are usually very quick to report such things, if they are free to do so.)

It takes a finite amount of time to process the payloads for launch.  What is the average processing time for a geo-comm payload, from delivery to stacking on the launch vehicle?

If that process has not yet started, then perhaps the launch must be delayed into early 2018?

(The focus here on NSF is on the LV, particularly so for Falcon 9--1st stage watches, etc.)

In the Zuma static fire article that Chris G. wrote today he lists the expected flights for the rest of the year, and Hispasat isn't on there.  It seems likely to slip into 2018.

And:
In a June FCC filing Hispasat said "launch and place in operation scheduled for May 2018".  There is typically some gap between launch and placing in operation, so that's a bit vague.  Then in an August press release for another mission the manufacturer said it would be launching later this year.  As noted in the Zuma static fire article, it doesn't seem to actually be on the manifest for 2017.  I'm going with first half of 2018 for now, and will refine the estimated date if we get any more news on the mission.

To re-purpose a phrase:
The Falcon dance card appears to be (very) full through the end of December 2017, and perhaps into the early days of January 2018.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 11/14/2017 11:24 AM
Here is an updated "FPIP" chart - with a new symbol (big star) which stands for a big event - Falcon Heavy Static Fire in mid-December.
It's only a month away  :o

And a usual note:
the chart is basically a guesswork, as there is a little info on Falcon's launch schedule beyond next 3-4 flights.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Eagandale4114 on 11/15/2017 01:09 AM
Another FCC app (crossposting from Reddit).

This  (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81281&RequestTimeout=1000)is for mission 1389 a RTLS from SLC-40 that will launch in H1 2018. Any idea as to what this one is?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/15/2017 01:51 AM
Another FCC app (crossposting from Reddit).

This  (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81281&RequestTimeout=1000)is for mission 1389 a RTLS from SLC-40 that will launch in H1 2018. Any idea as to what this one is?

It's not RTLS, it clearly mentions the drone ship.  Probably the first GTO flight of the year (Govsat?).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/15/2017 02:02 AM
On the subject of FCC permits, we are getting a nice reset at the end of the year when the last permit we don't really know the payload for (we've been assuming it was for Hispasat since it's expendable) expires, assuming it isn't actually used by then.  The only active ASDS permit will be the new one mentioned above, and no expendable flights will have active permits (which doesn't mean there won't be more next year, we just haven't seen the paperwork yet).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/20/2017 03:12 AM
I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: MATTBLAK on 11/20/2017 04:55 AM
Has the ZUMA mission been rescheduled? If so; anyone know when?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ZachS09 on 11/20/2017 05:16 PM
Has the ZUMA mission been rescheduled? If so; anyone know when?

No new launch date for Zuma has been determined as of today.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 11/20/2017 06:41 PM
And it seems, according to Irene Klotz, won’t be until December:

Quote
#SpaceX Zuma off range at least until it reopens after annual maintenance Dec 1
http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/spacex-classified-zuma-launch-delayed-until-least-december

https://twitter.com/free_space/status/932689217599213568
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 11/21/2017 07:47 AM
I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.

I believe TESS was contracted through NASA Launch Services and as such won't require a FAA launch license.  Non-commerical.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 11/21/2017 03:47 PM
Interview with Gwynne Shotwell:

http://spacenews.com/spacex-aims-to-follow-a-banner-year-with-an-even-faster-2018-launch-cadence/ (http://spacenews.com/spacex-aims-to-follow-a-banner-year-with-an-even-faster-2018-launch-cadence/)

Includes this on launches next year:

Quote
“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AbuSimbel on 11/21/2017 04:17 PM
So a mature rate of 30 to 40 missions per year for F9 and FH without accounting for the constellation she says. Wow.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/21/2017 04:28 PM
It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: mn on 11/21/2017 05:42 PM
It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.

Doesn't seem like she's even expecting 30 next year. (unless you think they end up with more than 20 this year).

Quote
“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

But really I think 'cadence' and actual numbers are not the same thing. You can have a general flow that supports x number per year, but actual numbers will generally be less due to breaks in the rhythm. (as was the case this year).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 11/23/2017 12:11 AM
Did CRS-14 slip a month?

[evertiq] Denmark’s next major space project prepared for launch (http://evertiq.com/news/43053)
Quote
The Atmosphere-Space Interactions Monitor (ASIM), is on its way to the US to be prepared for launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida to the International Space Station (ISS).

The launch is scheduled for Tuesday, 13 March 2018, and ASIM is planned for launch on the SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: input~2 on 11/24/2017 08:23 PM
Bangabandhu launch now planned for March 2018
(source (http://www.webtimemedias.com/article/thales-alenia-space-les-bangladais-ont-chante-devant-leur-satellite-20171124-61367))
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Salo on 11/27/2017 08:57 PM
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/935256052240650242
Quote
Chris B - NSF‏ @NASASpaceflight
SpaceX returns to SLC-40 for the next mission - Falcon 9 launch with CRS-13 Dragon. Static Fire is currently waiting on a firm date (Wednesday no longer the target). Launch date now has a NASA planning date of December 8, but don't go booking flights until this all firms up.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 11/28/2017 06:52 PM
FWIW, SpaceX was granted FCC licenses (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81260&RequestTimeout=1000) for a launch (Mission 1389) from LC-40 and ASDS recovery NET 1/15/17, almost certainly Govsat.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: mn on 11/29/2017 05:26 PM
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 12/06/2017 09:56 PM
Zuma just officially moved to SLC-40.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/07/2017 11:57 AM
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: macpacheco on 12/07/2017 12:49 PM
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 12/07/2017 11:05 PM
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: JBF on 12/11/2017 12:34 PM
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.  Although that is the design goal; they may not hit it with the first iteration.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 12/11/2017 07:16 PM
This thread isn't for general discussion of reuse.  It's for discussing entries on the launch manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/14/2017 04:04 PM
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/ (http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/)

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 12/14/2017 04:11 PM
Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/ (http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/)

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight.  It doesn't sound like they have any intention at all of launching before the Xprize deadline, and they don't control their schedule anyway as a secondary payload.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 12/15/2017 01:10 AM

...
Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight. 
...

Well, looks like it is enough :)
Of course this is enough only -
IF -- 1. the launch of that primary payload is indeed scheduled for the first quarter
AND
IF -- 2. that primary payload is indeed going for SUPERSYNC

THEN

for the first quarter SpaceX has four GTO missions:

Jan 30, 2018...SES-16 (GovSat-1)... ~4000 kg
Feb xx, 2018...SES-12...5300 kg
early (?) 2018...Hispasat 30W-6 (1F)...6092 kg
Mar xx, 2018...Bangabandhu-1...wt unknown

Hispasat is too heavy for supersync GTO with current version of F9 (actually, it's too heavy for any co-passenger);
SES-12 is too heavy as well - if we take into account SpaceIL weight;
SES-16 (GovSat-1) is way too early;

Which leaves us with the only option - Bangabandhu-1
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 12/15/2017 07:24 AM
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: JamesH65 on 12/15/2017 11:43 AM
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/

Could just be that when others move to reused boosters, the waiting time for new also reduces.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SpaceGoo on 12/18/2017 05:51 PM
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: punder on 12/18/2017 05:58 PM
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.

Welcome, SpaceGoo!

I would add, barring a problem on the upcoming Iridium flight, they successfully recovered all the first stages they intended to recover.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 12/18/2017 06:15 PM
Maybe better suited for the poll threads but I think 15/15 (recovered/planned to recover) is a far more meaningful stat than 15/18 .... Let's see what happens in a few days.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: SpaceGoo on 12/18/2017 07:07 PM
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.

Welcome, SpaceGoo!

I would add, barring a problem on the upcoming Iridium flight, they successfully recovered all the first stages they intended to recover.


A good point from both of you.  I realize that the payload determines if they will plan for recovery or not.  I was thinking more in terms of number of first stages available for reflight.  To me, this is a great start towards operational reuse and establishing an initial capability.  Will be interested how these numbers change over the next couple of years.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 12/18/2017 07:58 PM
[Yonhapnews] Korea's test moon orbit line shoots in America 'Space X' (http://m.yna.co.kr/kr/contents/?cid=AKR20171218046600063&site=0800000000)
Quote
Korea Aerospace Research Institute has selected SpaceX (USA) as a launching service for the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), which will be launched in 2020
...
The launch will be the Cape Canaveral Air Force Base in Florida, USA.

Antexis of India participated in the open bidding for the trial lunar launch service.

The company chose Space X as the preferred bidder through the evaluation and negotiated the final contract on the 15th.
...
The Korean lunar orbit line is 550kg.

If anyone sees more information about this please post a link

edit: saw a couple more Korean sources saying the same thing.
Emily Lakdawalla had a recent story on the project with more information, she says the target date is Dec. 2020:
[The Planetary Society] South Korea's first lunar mission planned for 2020 (http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2017/1207-koreas-first-lunar-mission.html)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 12/18/2017 08:22 PM
I have a PDF of a KPLO PI's presentation in October. A NASA official also told a Planetary Society reporter that the launch was more specifically scheduled for December 2020 as of a few weeks ago, but it may still be in flux, so I wouldn't put too much weight on that date.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2017/1207-koreas-first-lunar-mission.html

I just reached out to KARI's press contact and will report back if I get any additional info :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Salo on 12/19/2017 04:24 AM
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 12/19/2017 05:28 PM
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

That would put Iridium Next 5 in mid-February if evenly spaced between 4 and 6.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 12/19/2017 05:47 PM
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4 (https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4)
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

That would put Iridium Next 5 in mid-February if evenly spaced between 4 and 6.

Iridium launches are supposed to be roughly every 60 days.
I think Dec 22 to Apr 14 is 121 days which is right on pace.
Halfway in between is Feb 16 or so.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 12/19/2017 06:03 PM
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: LM13 on 12/19/2017 06:54 PM
From the FH Update Thread:

FAA thinks launch is close:

Quote
Second day of the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference starts with keynotes by FAA’s George Nield and NASA’s Steve Jurczyk. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697)

Quote
Nield: 2017 has been pretty exciting for commercial spaceflight, but 2018 will be even more exciting, starting with Falcon Heavy first launch in the next month. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728)

Can we interpret from the second tweet that FH is to launch before Zuma?  Does that mean an FH launch before January 4, or that Zuma has slipped? 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 12/19/2017 07:01 PM
From the FH Update Thread:

FAA thinks launch is close:

Quote
Second day of the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference starts with keynotes by FAA’s George Nield and NASA’s Steve Jurczyk. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697)

Quote
Nield: 2017 has been pretty exciting for commercial spaceflight, but 2018 will be even more exciting, starting with Falcon Heavy first launch in the next month. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728)

Can we interpret from the second tweet that FH is to launch before Zuma?  Does that mean an FH launch before January 4, or that Zuma has slipped?

I'd say no. It is the exciting part that is starting with FH. Not the first launch of the year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: kevin-rf on 12/21/2017 03:19 PM
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.

I thought the pacing items was commissioning the in orbit satellites, meaning not before the previous launches satellites are commissioned.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 12/21/2017 03:21 PM
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.

I thought the pacing items was commissioning the in orbit satellites, meaning not before the previous launches satellites are commissioned.

They said they've gotten that under 60 days.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 12/23/2017 02:38 AM
Year end archive of the current manifest

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0)
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0)

Sites:
      C=the Cape (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ---- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43199.0)
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS SpX-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0)LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0)GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0)GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0)LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035.1LCRS SpX-11 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0)GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 2) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)GTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS SpX-12 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42878.0)LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-4F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)LEO5400C-39A42
2017-10-09  0537/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43217.0)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10-11  1853/-4F91031.2SSES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)GTO5200C-39A44
2017-10-30  1534/-4F91042SKoreasat-5A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)GTO3700C-39A45
2017-12-15  1036/-5F91035.2LCRS SpX-13 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.0)LEO~10kC-4046
2017-12-22*1727/-8F91036.2XIridium NEXT (Flight 4) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43940.0)PLR9600V-4E47
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2018-01-04  2000/-5F91043LZuma (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.0)LEO?C-4048
2018-early (NET)HRNR*LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42705.0)..C-39A(50)
2018-01-30  1623/-5F9RSGovSat-1 (SES-16) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)GTO4000C.
2018-01-30F9R.PAZ & Microsat 2a/2b (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)SSO1400V-4E.
2018-H1F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43435.0)GTO6092C.
2018-03-13F9.LCRS SpX-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44298.0)LEO~10kC.
2018-03F9N.Bangabandhu (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)GTO~3500C.
2018-Q1F9R?Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43648.0)GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9N.NASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)HEO325C .
2018-04-14F9N.Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)PLR~6kV-4E.
2018-04F9.?CCtCap DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43466.0)GTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 Vantage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43465.0)GTO>5400C.
2018-04F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)SSO.V-4E.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30912.0)MEO3880C.
2018-05 (NET)F9..Telkom 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44227.0)GTO.C.
2018-midH.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06-06F9.LCRS SpX-15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-H1F9.SEs'hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)GTO~3kC.
2018-midF9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.CN/A
2018H..Arabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)GTO~6kC-39A.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passenger (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)GTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS SpX-16LEO~10kC.
2018-08F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q3F9R.RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)SSO~1.5kV-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4 (NET)F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
2019F9..GiSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)GTO~6kC.
2019 (NET)H.???SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42421.0)TLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS SpX-19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS III-3? (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)MEO3880C.
2019-Q2F9R.AMOS-17 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44162.0)GTO5500C(81)
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44263.0)SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43687.0)GTO~6k+C.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020F9..Türksat 5A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44188.0)GTO3500C.
2020-H2F9..AMOS-8GTO.C(81)
2020-11F9..Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44023.0)LEO1440V-4E.
2020F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?550C(82)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C(85)
2021F9..Türksat 5B (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44189.0)GTO4500C.
2021-04F9..SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)LEO2000V-4E.
2022 (NET)BFR..MarsTMI.?.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
NET 2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
NET 2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
NET 2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428) update (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1713405#msg1713405)
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release (https://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20160728.html) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/sxm-7.htm)
(81) Spacecom Amos-17, Amos-8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1739010#msg1739010) SpaceNews (http://spacenews.com/spacecom-returns-to-spacex-for-one-possibly-two-launches/)
(82) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1760955#msg1760955)
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 (http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2016/02/10/dankberg-viasat-3-satellites-will-have-more-capacity-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/) SpaceNews 2/10/2016 (http://spacenews.com/viasat-details-1-4-billion-global-ka-band-satellite-broadband-strategy-to-oust-incumbent-players/) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)

Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1655839#msg1655839) - EELV (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43924.0), First 5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43266.0) / Phase 1A-6 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44184.0)

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.0)
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0) / Public Core Spotting (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.0)
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
Viewing flights from Vandenberg (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.0) / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral (https://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html)
Upcoming SpaceX Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1690190#msg1690190) / General Industry Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43382)
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42389.0)
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36513.0)


Recent Edits:
Dec 19  Moved GRACE-FO from March to April 14 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1761051#msg1761051)
Dec 18  Added Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1760955#msg1760955) in 2020
Dec 14  Moved Telkom 4 from August 2018 to NET May 2018.
Dec 12  The May 2018 GPS mission changed from GPS III-2 to GPS III-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30912.msg1758553#msg1758553)
Nov 24  Moved Bangabandhu from February to March (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1752881#msg1752881)
Nov 12  Moving Hispasat 30W-6 to first half of 2018 as there is much uncertainly about the launch date.
Nov 09  Adding Türksat 5A in 2020 and Türksat 5B in 2021 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1747593#msg1747593)
Oct 19  Moving Iridium NEXT Flight 4 to Dec 22 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43940.msg1739413#msg1739413) from late November.  Adding Sentinel-6A in November 2020 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1739643#msg1739643).
Oct 18  Adding Amos-17 in Q2-2019 and Amos-8 in H2-2020 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1739010#msg1739010).  Putting most of the Spaceflight Industries flights down in the TBD list at the end until we have a better idea when they will actually fly.  Moved GiSat-1 from 2018-Q4 to 2019 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.msg1739054#msg1739054).
Oct 14  Added Mystery Payload Codename Zuma in mid-November (this was formerly listed as unknown Northrop Grumman)
Oct 09  PAZ moved to Jan 30 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.msg1734292#msg1734292) from December.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 12/23/2017 05:29 AM
SpaceFab.US apparently has two Waypoint space telescopes manifested as copassengers on SpaceX launches in 2019 and 2020.

Quote
So a little bit of news... I am now part owner of the first company ever to build a commercial space telescope satellite, and this thing can be used by anyone! You can use it for deep space astrophotography, land surveys of the Earth, or even Hyperspectral images of your farmland. We have two slots secured on Space X Falcon 9 rockets in 2019 and 2020 for our first launches! Huge thanks to SpaceFab.US for making me a part of the adventure!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB6XReFIsj/?taken-by=gibsonpics
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 12/23/2017 02:04 PM
SpaceFab.US apparently has two Waypoint space telescopes manifested as copassengers on SpaceX launches in 2019 and 2020.

Quote
So a little bit of news... I am now part owner of the first company ever to build a commercial space telescope satellite, and this thing can be used by anyone! You can use it for deep space astrophotography, land surveys of the Earth, or even Hyperspectral images of your farmland. We have two slots secured on Space X Falcon 9 rockets in 2019 and 2020 for our first launches! Huge thanks to SpaceFab.US for making me a part of the adventure!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB6XReFIsj/?taken-by=gibsonpics

Probably on Spaceflight Industries launches, no? 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: mn on 12/25/2017 04:19 PM
Once again there's a launch on both coasts with an NET on the same day (PAZ and GovSat both NET Jan 30th),

(We got close with Iridium 2 and BulgariaSat with both launches moving but not ending up on the same date)

Let's see if these dates hold.

(once upon a time there was a chart showing how accurate SpaceX NET dates hold up from x days out, anyone remember where that was?)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 12/25/2017 04:59 PM
FWIW, SpaceX's requests for media accred. applications gave NETs of "late January" for both launches. Probably still in flux :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 12/25/2017 07:20 PM
(once upon a time there was a chart showing how accurate SpaceX NET dates hold up from x days out, anyone remember where that was?)

It was in the SpaceX Scrubs thread, the one which eventually inspired the most excellent SpaceX Launch Log.  Put together by saliva_sweet.  I kind of doubt that the graph has been kept up to date all this time, but maybe: 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311816#msg1311816
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: saliva_sweet on 12/25/2017 08:57 PM
It was in the SpaceX Scrubs thread, the one which eventually inspired the most excellent SpaceX Launch Log.  Put together by saliva_sweet.  I kind of doubt that the graph has been kept up to date all this time, but maybe: 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311816#msg1311816

Unfortunately I stopped updating the data during the post-CRS-7 hiatus :( I guess the table could be rebuilt from Salo's launch log, but it's a ton of work at this point.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Roy_H on 12/26/2017 06:36 PM
It was in the SpaceX Scrubs thread, the one which eventually inspired the most excellent SpaceX Launch Log.  Put together by saliva_sweet.  I kind of doubt that the graph has been kept up to date all this time, but maybe: 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311816#msg1311816

Unfortunately I stopped updating the data during the post-CRS-7 hiatus :( I guess the table could be rebuilt from Salo's launch log, but it's a ton of work at this point.

Not worth the effort. We all know many have been delayed for years and only now is SpaceX making headway on its backlog. The only thing an updated chart would show is that it is getting better.  ;)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cscott on 12/26/2017 07:09 PM
OTOH, I found the chart useful in planning vacation travel to Florida: it gave me a rough probability that a launch date would hold, which let me know whether I should try to actively plan around it or just resign myself to the luck of the launch dates.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 12/27/2017 05:54 PM
For the FH Demo, the date should be 2018-01 NET (multiple SpaceX sources have publicly said January), and the orbit should be either TMI or ESC (Earth escape, if you're pedantic about Mars being there at the other end of TMI).

Also, why is the order of core reuse RNR, while the order of landing location is LLS? Should that not be either RRN/LLS or RNR/LSL, for consistency? I prefer the latter.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: bulkmail on 12/27/2017 09:27 PM
A refresh of the commercial launches table.
2014: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.msg1346716#msg1346716
2015: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34603.msg1472467#msg1472467
2016: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1629673#msg1629673
2017:
OTV-5 not counted  (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/6gaa51/ula_was_not_given_the_opportunity_to_bid_on_x37b/?st=jbpmlpsn&sh=8bccada8) as "commercial / competitively bid"
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 12/28/2017 02:51 PM
Agree about the abbreviation order, it should be consistent, and side/center/side is better than center/side/side or side/side/center
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/03/2018 02:12 PM
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???

1746-EX-ST-2017 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81635&RequestTimeout=1000)
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1643-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration), and 2) command of landed stage from recovery boat (less than five minutes in duration). All operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393.

0007-EX-ST-2018 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000)
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1318-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the TC uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration) 2) experimental uplink testing from the an onshore station at CCAFS during first-stage descent (less than five minutes in duration) Both operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393. Transmitting stations located at Port Canaveral.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 01/03/2018 06:56 PM


It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???

Block 5 flexing its muscles?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 01/03/2018 07:28 PM
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???

1746-EX-ST-2017 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81635&RequestTimeout=1000)
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1643-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration), and 2) command of landed stage from recovery boat (less than five minutes in duration). All operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393.

0007-EX-ST-2018 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000)
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1318-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the TC uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration) 2) experimental uplink testing from the an onshore station at CCAFS during first-stage descent (less than five minutes in duration) Both operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393. Transmitting stations located at Port Canaveral.

There are 4 launches on the 2018 manifest that could fit the mass/energy, launch site, and date range (Feb-Aug):
Bangabandhu
USAF GPS III-1
Telkom 4
Es'hail 2

Do we know which is 1393?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: stcks on 01/03/2018 07:42 PM
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???


But the location for landing hasn't changed and is still way out in the Atlantic... what am I missing?

Quote
   North  28  19  46   West  74  7  4     Launch vehicle stage 1 landing site
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 01/03/2018 08:05 PM
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???


But the location for landing hasn't changed and is still way out in the Atlantic... what am I missing?

Quote
   North  28  19  46   West  74  7  4     Launch vehicle stage 1 landing site
The transmitting location being stated as from an onshore transmitter at CCAFS (in the description section) and dropping the command from the recovery boat sentence.  Maybe those coordinates are a mistake and they didn't get updated?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: stcks on 01/03/2018 08:32 PM
The transmitting location being stated as from an onshore transmitter at CCAFS (in the description section) and dropping the command from the recovery boat sentence.  Maybe those coordinates are a mistake and they didn't get updated?

Hmm.. weird, I didn't see that. Either the onshore transmitter is magic and works that far away or its a misprint in the application (??). Could it just be an expendable launch and therefore no drone ship?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 01/05/2018 02:29 PM
The new "SpaceX FPIP" for the New Year :)

The usual disclaimer:
This chart is not an attempt to predict the actual launch dates.
It is an attempt to visualize the current launch PLANS - or the state of our knowledge about launch plans.

Here I made chart for the whole year ahead - which is not difficult for ULA launches as all of them have launch dates penciled. With SpaceX a bunch of flights does not have dates, the order and even launch pad designation are unknown as well. Therefore the chart has pale-green blocks labelled as "2d Q" or "2d H".

But anyway - the chart has 29 (twenty nine  :o ) Falcon flights.
Go SpaceX!!

Edit: Updated chart with new data for SAOCOM
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: input~2 on 01/05/2018 06:55 PM
Saocom-1A now planned for launch with F9 in August 2018 from VAFB

source: http://www.telam.com.ar/notas/201801/237000-el-satelite-argentino-saocom-alertara-desde-agosto-sobre-inundaciones.html (http://www.telam.com.ar/notas/201801/237000-el-satelite-argentino-saocom-alertara-desde-agosto-sobre-inundaciones.html)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 01/05/2018 07:13 PM
The transmitting location being stated as from an onshore transmitter at CCAFS (in the description section) and dropping the command from the recovery boat sentence.  Maybe those coordinates are a mistake and they didn't get updated?

Hmm.. weird, I didn't see that. Either the onshore transmitter is magic and works that far away or its a misprint in the application (??). Could it just be an expendable launch and therefore no drone ship?

Probably just a copy-paste typo. Would not be the first time we've seen those in a SpaceX application.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Testraindrop on 01/06/2018 03:27 PM
The PTScientist Audi Lunar Rovers are planned to be launched in 2019 from Cape Canaveral to the moon, seem like on the F9 not on the heavy...
I didn't find it on the schedule yet...


Source (translated) (https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.motor-talk.de%2Fnews%2Fdas-naechste-mondauto-kommt-aus-berlin-t6233742.html&sandbox=1)

Quote
On the "Autonomous Landing and Navigation Module" are the two rovers.

The schedule is tight. ALINA is due to launch the two lunar vehicles from Cape Canaveral in 2019 into orbit. A commercial rocket Falcon 9 from Elon Musks company SpaceX is used. It takes about five days to reach the moon for almost 400,000 kilometers. Then she lands automatically, with a safe distance to the Apollo 17 landing site. The goal: The Rover to return to the landing site of the last manned mission of 45 years ago. There, they are to conduct a series of experiments commissioned by NASA and several European universities.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/08/2018 05:57 PM
Quote
Will report next Iridium launch date soon.  I CAN report that Iridium 5 will be directed to our orbital Plane #1 - all 10 will go into service there.  It will also be a morning launch - probably a little before 8am local...

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/950440422127489024
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 01/08/2018 07:13 PM
Is there an Iridium 5 thread yet? And does anyone know what days in the next few weeks months that plane #1 is overhead at that time?
Edit: looking into my own questions, it looks like plane #1 will be over VAFB just before 8 am local around March 10, and then again around March 23 because daylight savings sets local time forward an hour.

http://www.rod.sladen.org.uk/iridium.htm
http://www.heavens-above.com/PassSummary.aspx?satid=25291&lat=34.742&lng=-120.5724&loc=747&alt=102&tz=PST&showall=t
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/08/2018 07:18 PM
I'll make an Iridium 5 thread soon.  I would expect Iridium 5 NLT mid-March, certainly not in the next few weeks.  There are websites (and probably apps) that track the Iridium constellation.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/11/2018 02:06 PM
Seems like confirmation of right-moves to SpaceX CC demo flights:

Quote
NASA’s Commercial Crew Program Target Test Flight Dates

The next generation of American spacecraft and rockets that will launch astronauts to the International Space Station are nearing the final stages of development and evaluation. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program will return human spaceflight launches to U.S. soil, providing reliable and cost-effective access to low-Earth orbit on systems that meet our safety and mission requirements. To meet NASA’s requirements, the commercial providers must demonstrate that their systems are ready to begin regular flights to the space station. Two of those demonstrations are uncrewed flight tests, known as Orbital Flight Test for Boeing, and Demonstration Mission 1 for SpaceX. After the uncrewed flight tests, both companies will execute a flight test with crew prior to being certified by NASA for crew rotation missions. The following schedule reflects the most recent publicly releasable dates for both providers.

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018

Author Anna HeineyPosted on January 11, 2018

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/01/11/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-2/ (https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/01/11/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-2/#.Wld4oz5q1_U.twitter)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/11/2018 10:17 PM
New date and time for PAZ

New date: February 10.  15:22 Spanish Time should be 14:22 UTC, 06:22 PST.

http://www.infodefensa.com/es/2018/01/11/noticia-satelite-lanzara-febrero.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/17/2018 08:40 PM
A bunch of news articles say that last week (Jan. 12) a government minister in Bangladesh gave a target of March 26-31 for the Bangabandhu-1 launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/17/2018 08:52 PM
A bunch of news articles say that last week (Jan. 12) a government minister in Bangladesh gave a target of March 26-31 for the Bangabandhu-1 launch.

Looking at the manifest, there's basically no chance of TESS, Bangabandhu-1, and CRS-14 all launching on the dates we currently have.  Expect further changes.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 01/18/2018 05:45 AM
A bunch of news articles say that last week (Jan. 12) a government minister in Bangladesh gave a target of March 26-31 for the Bangabandhu-1 launch.

Looking at the manifest, there's basically no chance of TESS, Bangabandhu-1, and CRS-14 all launching on the dates we currently have.  Expect further changes.

CRS-14 has already moved to April.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 01/19/2018 09:43 PM
A license for launch comms was just granted, NET March 5. (Mission 1382)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

A license for East coast booster recovery was also granted today, oddly NET February 15. (Mission 1393)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

Doubt that's Hispasat, and 90% sure that GovSat-1 is Mission 1389 and PAZ is Mission 1400 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81531&RequestTimeout=1000). Still, 1389 has a license for booster recovery (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000), which doesn't fit with the that core being expended after its second flight.

Corrections/refutations/debates welcome!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/19/2018 09:47 PM
A license for launch comms was just granted, NET March 5. (Mission 1382)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

A license for East coast booster recovery was also granted today, oddly NET February 15. (Mission 1393)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

Doubt that's Hispasat, and 90% sure that GovSat-1 is Mission 1389 and PAZ is Mission 1400 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81531&RequestTimeout=1000). Still, 1389 has a license for booster recovery (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000), which doesn't fit with the that core being expended after its second flight.

Corrections/refutations/debates welcome!

1382 is CRS-14
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.
1389 should be GovSat-1
PAZ should be 1400

Maybe the booster recovery permits just won't be used?  Weren't sure yet what the plan would be so they just went ahead and filed the paperwork?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 01/19/2018 11:36 PM
1382 is CRS-14
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.
1389 should be GovSat-1
PAZ should be 1400

Maybe the booster recovery permits just won't be used?  Weren't sure yet what the plan would be so they just went ahead and filed the paperwork?

heheh, same ;D I've begun to wonder if, realistically, there is any downside to simply filing for a very liberal number of launch/landing licenses, nearly irregardless of planned orbit or actual manifest pressures. It seems that they can be reasonably easily (at least more easily than a new license) swapped about, and the lead time to getting those grants is clearly a bit unwieldy at SpaceX's anticipated launch cadences, and also seems almost guaranteed that it is 100x better to have a license and not need it than the opposite.

So, probably pretty likely as you said that they are just hedging their bets in case manifest delays or shuffling are necessary. Anyways, I'd concur with your core assignments. My first bet for 1393 was Hispasat, as well, was just thrown off by the recovery license. Who knows :D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 01/20/2018 03:47 AM
1382 is CRS-14
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.
1389 should be GovSat-1
PAZ should be 1400

Maybe the booster recovery permits just won't be used?  Weren't sure yet what the plan would be so they just went ahead and filed the paperwork?

heheh, same ;D I've begun to wonder if, realistically, there is any downside to simply filing for a very liberal number of launch/landing licenses, nearly irregardless of planned orbit or actual manifest pressures. It seems that they can be reasonably easily (at least more easily than a new license) swapped about, and the lead time to getting those grants is clearly a bit unwieldy at SpaceX's anticipated launch cadences, and also seems almost guaranteed that it is 100x better to have a license and not need it than the opposite.

So, probably pretty likely as you said that they are just hedging their bets in case manifest delays or shuffling are necessary. Anyways, I'd concur with your core assignments. My first bet for 1393 was Hispasat, as well, was just thrown off by the recovery license. Who knows :D

That was why they switched to the "#### Mission" designator in the first place.  They had been filing with "F9-##" and it was confusing the FCC when SpaceX swapped mission order.  So, the current system uses a mission number that is specific to each payload and not dictated by position in the flight manifest.   
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Chris Bergin on 01/22/2018 12:00 PM
SpaceX: Iridium-5 to launch in March; government shutdown creates manifest uncertainty -
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/01/spacex-iridium-5-launch-shutdown-manifest-uncertainty/

- by Chris Gebhardt:

Iridium element was embargoed until the top of the hour (as in now).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 01/24/2018 12:07 AM
Confirmation that 1382 is CRS-14, NET March 5, and includes a recovery attempt onshore (LZ-1).

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81987&RequestTimeout=1000
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81985&RequestTimeout=1000
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: OccasionalTraveller on 01/25/2018 03:01 PM
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.

We don't yet know whether Hispasat is using a new or reused core, but we do know that the first Block 5 has been built and - according to one rumour - is already at 39A's HIF. It could be a recovery if this is the first Block 5, and it jumps the queue.

There are two more Block 4s left, and I've seen reports that NASA don't want TESS to be on the first Block 5. If Hispasat and TESS used the last two Block 4s, the Block 5 would be used for Bangabandhu-1. That's only 3500 kg. It seems a bit of a waste to expend a Block 4 which might have a chance of a reuse. (Thaicom 8 was 3100kg to GTO, and that booster, B1023, is now one of the side cores for FH Demo.)

Sent from my Swift 2 Plus using Tapatalk

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/25/2018 04:07 PM
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.

We don't yet know whether Hispasat is using a new or reused core, but we do know that the first Block 5 has been built and - according to one rumour - is already at 39A's HIF. It could be a recovery if this is the first Block 5, and it jumps the queue.

There are two more Block 4s left, and I've seen reports that NASA don't want TESS to be on the first Block 5. If Hispasat and TESS used the last two Block 4s, the Block 5 would be used for Bangabandhu-1. That's only 3500 kg. It seems a bit of a waste to expend a Block 4 which might have a chance of a reuse. (Thaicom 8 was 3100kg to GTO, and that booster, B1023, is now one of the side cores for FH Demo.)

This is not the thread for random rumors.  Everything I've seen points to Hispasat being on a Block 4.  There is no indication a Block 5 would be ready for that flight.  Even if there were, it's probably still expendable at that payload mass.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 01/25/2018 10:01 PM
This is not the thread for random rumors.  Everything I've seen points to Hispasat being on a Block 4.  There is no indication a Block 5 would be ready for that flight.  Even if there were, it's probably still expendable at that payload mass.

It will be expended.

Quote
Next Falcon 9 launch is set to be expendable. Drone ship's next job will be to catch the center core of the Falcon Heavy.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/956612001287065601
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/25/2018 10:03 PM
This is not the thread for random rumors.  Everything I've seen points to Hispasat being on a Block 4.  There is no indication a Block 5 would be ready for that flight.  Even if there were, it's probably still expendable at that payload mass.

It will be expended.

Quote
Next Falcon 9 launch is set to be expendable. Drone ship's next job will be to catch the center core of the Falcon Heavy.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/956612001287065601

That's for GovSat-1.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/26/2018 08:44 PM
Falcon Heavy demo:

Launch date, per the current plan:

NET Feb 6th with backup on the 7th.

Launch window each day is 13:30-16:30 EST.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: M.E.T. on 01/27/2018 02:45 PM
Apologies if this has been discussed previously. I just popped in to see the expected launches for the next month or so, and noticed the currently projected gap after the third February launch and before the first March launch.

Is there really expected to be in excess of a 1 month gap between Hispasat on 15 Feb, and the next launch, which appears to be Iridium on 18 March?

Or are there potential launches that can be shifted into that slot should all go according to plan?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 01/27/2018 03:08 PM
Apologies if this has been discussed previously. I just popped in to see the expected launches for the next month or so, and noticed the currently projected gap after the third February launch and before the first March launch.

Is there really expected to be in excess of a 1 month gap between Hispasat on 15 Feb, and the next launch, which appears to be Iridium on 18 March?

Or are there potential launches that can be shifted into that slot should all go according to plan?

Keep in mind there are 4 flights in about two weeks scheduled right before that gap and 5 flights in the month after it.  The dates could change to spread out a little more, or not.  Not even counting SES-12, which is unknown right now, it looks like 10 flights through mid-April.  That's slightly ahead of the pace they would need to meet their launch goals this year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: drnscr on 02/01/2018 12:13 AM
I’m really sorry to be stupid but... If Hispasat is going to launch on 15 Feb, does anyone have an estimate of launch time.  Since I’m headed to Daytona for speed week, I’d love to get to see the launch instead of going to Thursday night’s races.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 02/01/2018 12:29 AM
I’m really sorry to be stupid but... If Hispasat is going to launch on 15 Feb, does anyone have an estimate of launch time.  Since I’m headed to Daytona for speed week, I’d love to get to see the launch instead of going to Thursday night’s races.

I wouldn't plan on Feb 15 at this point. I believe that is a public placeholder for "mid-February" at this point in time, we haven't been given a more specific date yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/01/2018 12:47 PM
Tweet from Airbus Space (https://twitter.com/AirbusSpace/status/959047895776464896):
Quote
Spanish radar #satellite #PAZ, built by @AirbusSpace, to be launched on the 17th of Feb. with a @SpaceX #Falcon9 rocket.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/01/2018 02:32 PM
I’m really sorry to be stupid but... If Hispasat is going to launch on 15 Feb, does anyone have an estimate of launch time.  Since I’m headed to Daytona for speed week, I’d love to get to see the launch instead of going to Thursday night’s races.

I wouldn't plan on Feb 15 at this point. I believe that is a public placeholder for "mid-February" at this point in time, we haven't been given a more specific date yet.

...and there it goes.  Moving at least a week to the right.

https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: drnscr on 02/01/2018 03:35 PM
I’m really sorry to be stupid but... If Hispasat is going to launch on 15 Feb, does anyone have an estimate of launch time.  Since I’m headed to Daytona for speed week, I’d love to get to see the launch instead of going to Thursday night’s races.

I wouldn't plan on Feb 15 at this point. I believe that is a public placeholder for "mid-February" at this point in time, we haven't been given a more specific date yet.

...and there it goes.  Moving at least a week to the right.

https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

Guess I’ll be at Daytona International Speedway for the races
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Bubbinski on 02/02/2018 07:34 PM
I’d be very interested in the latest info on the TESS launch, planning a launch trip. Is March 20 doable or is it moving to the right like one note upthread hinted?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/02/2018 07:38 PM
I’d be very interested in the latest info on the TESS launch, planning a launch trip. Is March 20 doable or is it moving to the right like one note upthread hinted?

I haven't seen anything about the TESS date moving.  That doesn't mean it won't.   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Dante2121 on 02/04/2018 10:54 AM
The relative lack of launches in 2019 is concerning for spacex's long term ability to fund BFR.  Seems like once they are through this year they have little left to do.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ATPTourFan on 02/04/2018 12:55 PM
Why do we have a tendency to worry about such things simply due to lack of information shared with the public? I feel it's better to take the position that SpaceX has tons of very, very smart people who achieve extraordinary things by making good decisions and well-informed, yet flexible plans.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/04/2018 05:48 PM
The relative lack of launches in 2019 is concerning for spacex's long term ability to fund BFR.  Seems like once they are through this year they have little left to do.

Launch revenue isn't funding BFR... according to EM.  The Starlink constellation is the revenue stream.  2019 is kick-off year to get it launched, so only having 15-20 flights to cover for others leaves room for 20 or more of their own flights; this should get something like the first half of 800 sats launched -- the minimum number needed to go operational.  These 20 or whatever number of launches are not shown on this thread's manifest, but maybe should be added in some 'bulk' form.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 02/04/2018 06:11 PM
The relative lack of launches in 2019 is concerning for spacex's long term ability to fund BFR.  Seems like once they are through this year they have little left to do.
How does the global manifest look like for that year?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: pb2000 on 02/04/2018 06:44 PM
The relative lack of launches in 2019 is concerning for spacex's long term ability to fund BFR.  Seems like once they are through this year they have little left to do.
At the price point SpaceX is offering, I don't think they're going to have any trouble keeping the manifest full for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/04/2018 09:29 PM
This thread is for the flights on the SpaceX manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 02/04/2018 09:48 PM
Pursuant to that, it's too early to put any notional StarLink launches on, no? Or is it?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: IanThePineapple on 02/04/2018 10:01 PM
Pursuant to that, it's too early to put any notional StarLink launches on, no? Or is it?

I think it's too early, we know very little about Starlink at this point.

Heck, we don't even know where they will launch from, and on which vehicle. F9? FH? BFR? Cape? Vandy?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/06/2018 02:44 AM
Pursuant to that, it's too early to put any notional StarLink launches on, no? Or is it?

I think it's too early, we know very little about Starlink at this point.

Heck, we don't even know where they will launch from, and on which vehicle. F9? FH? BFR? Cape? Vandy?
Yes. To all those.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/07/2018 11:26 AM
The relative lack of launches in 2019 is concerning for spacex's long term ability to fund BFR.  Seems like once they are through this year they have little left to do.

SpaceX Vice President of Build and flight reliability, Hans Koenigsmann, spoke at the SmallSat Symposium yesterday. He said SpaceX now has a greater than $12 Billion in manifest backlog. Here is the relevant tweet from Peter B. de Spelding.  (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/960930344588361728)

if someone wants to do some math, they could pull out the Commercial Resupply Services and Commercial Crew numbers out of that 12 Billion and estimate how many future commercial satellite launches haven't been announced. My guess is there is little concern for SpaceX's 2019 manifest and beyond.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rsdavis9 on 02/07/2018 03:38 PM
How can an expendable return (Govsat) be unsuccessful?  ???
They were testing a landing burn without having anything to actually land on. It didn't sink and appeared to have remained intact. Or at least it didn't sink straight away. There's a speculative recovery thread on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/7uw4ly/b01322_the_falcon_that_could_recovery_thread/

By contrast, the FH Centre Core is reported to have broken up on impact with the ocean, after missing the drone ship, due to two engines not igniting for the landing burn (Elon Musk in the post-launch press conference).

Sent from my Swift 2 Plus using Tapatalk

also 300 mph from press conf.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: sewebster on 02/08/2018 03:12 AM
Shouldn't the next few Vandenberg launches be UTC-8? (showing as -7 in table)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/08/2018 03:16 AM
SpaceX filed a couple of FCC permits for a launch (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82662&RequestTimeout=1000) with ASDS recovery (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82665&RequestTimeout=1000) from SLC-40 (File Numbers 0210-EX-ST-2018 & 0211-EX-ST-2018).  Start dates were 3/30 on the launch vehicle comms permit (for mission 1418) and 4/2 on the landing permit, so unless F9 learned how to stay up there a couple days I'm assuming that means NET 4/2.  I'm guessing that would be Bangabandhu-1?  Which would mean a slip of another few days for that mission.  It also is basically the same date and launch pad as the last info I've seen for CRS-14, so one of those is either going to slip some more or maybe CRS-14 switches pads?  My guess would be Bangabandhu-1 goes after CRS-14.  We'll get more information eventually.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/08/2018 03:18 AM
Shouldn't the next few Vandenberg launches be UTC-8? (showing as -7 in table)

The next one should be UTC-8 (apparently my brain confused February for March).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: sewebster on 02/08/2018 03:30 AM
Shouldn't the next few Vandenberg launches be UTC-8? (showing as -7 in table)

The next one should be UTC-8 (apparently my brain confused February for March).

Looks good now, thanks! (wow, DST starts soon!)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 02/08/2018 08:57 AM
SpaceX just received launch and landing licenses for Mission 1380, NET March 20. The landing STA mentions radio communications at the ASDS, but I'm not quite sure if this license is for Bangabandhu-1 or TESS.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82383

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82387
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ChrisGebhardt on 02/08/2018 02:21 PM
When I asked Elon at the post-FH demo press conference which FH mission was next, Arabsat or STP-2, he nodded to Arabsat.  So I think that should go back before STP-2 on the top post.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 02/08/2018 08:36 PM
The GovSat booster has now been successfully expended. Just took longer than expected.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisG_NSF/status/961622795900866561
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/09/2018 01:47 PM
When I asked Elon at the post-FH demo press conference which FH mission was next, Arabsat or STP-2, he nodded to Arabsat.  So I think that should go back before STP-2 on the top post.

And yet:

Quote
According to #NASA PAO @NASA does have two payloads on the *next* @SpaceX #FalconHeavy flight

https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/961969593291075584

So someone's info is out of date! Serious Q: with everything going on do you think Elon is close, on a day-to-day, basis with SpaceX's busy manifest?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 02/09/2018 02:14 PM
When I asked Elon at the post-FH demo press conference which FH mission was next, Arabsat or STP-2, he nodded to Arabsat.  So I think that should go back before STP-2 on the top post.

And yet:

Quote
According to #NASA PAO @NASA does have two payloads on the *next* @SpaceX #FalconHeavy flight

https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/961969593291075584

So someone's info is out of date! Serious Q: with everything going on do you think Elon is close, on a day-to-day, basis with SpaceX's busy manifest?

I expect he would know whether ArabSat or STP-2 is going on the next FH.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/09/2018 02:17 PM
The FH order has been ambiguous for a while.  We'll get more information eventually.  There will probably be at least 10 F9 flights before the next FH.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cscott on 02/09/2018 03:28 PM
The FH order has been ambiguous for a while.  We'll get more information eventually.  There will probably be at least 10 F9 flights before the next FH.
I've got tickets to the STP-2 launch, courtesy of a long-ago Kickstarter by the planetary society. So I'm very interested in the actual order!

But I suspect the ambiguity is not all from SpaceX.  It seemed like the STP-2 payload was nervous about being the first operational launch, and was eager for the opportunity to have ArabSat be the first guinea pig. There may be actual USAF qualification requirements involved. Given the apparent success of the first mission, I expect a negotiation will be initiated with both customers to determine a mutually agreeable schedule based on the customers' determination of flight risk, delay tolerance, price incentives, and their own assessment of various qualification benchmarks achieved by the first mission.  SpaceX can't announce an official order until those negotiations are complete, although they might have a good idea about how their clients are likely to respond. The difference between current official order and the likely outcome of negotiations may explain the contradiction between the statements by the NASA PAO and Elon. (But if I wanted a more authoritative guess, I'd ask Gwynne.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Olaf on 02/12/2018 11:21 AM
There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/12/2018 01:51 PM
There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Shanuson on 02/12/2018 02:07 PM
There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

Should be found here: https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-near-term-schedule_february-7-2018.pdf (linked on https://sma.nasa.gov/sma-disciplines/smsr#smsr_upcomingEvents)

No access here either.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/12/2018 02:23 PM
There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

Should be found here: https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-near-term-schedule_february-7-2018.pdf (linked on https://sma.nasa.gov/sma-disciplines/smsr#smsr_upcomingEvents)

No access here either.

I can't download the pdf, but at the second link from Shanuson it says (SpaceX relevant):
TESS -- Feb 21, 2018
GRACE -- March, 2018
SpaceX DM-1 -- July 2018
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/12/2018 02:35 PM
There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

Should be found here: https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-near-term-schedule_february-7-2018.pdf (linked on https://sma.nasa.gov/sma-disciplines/smsr#smsr_upcomingEvents)

No access here either.

I can't download the pdf, but at the second link from Shanuson it says (SpaceX relevant):
TESS -- Feb 2, 2018
GRACE -- March, 2018
SpaceX DM-1 -- July 2018

Just to be clear, those are not launch dates.  The corresponding launch dates are shown in the pdf files.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: WmThomas on 02/12/2018 09:14 PM
Launch schedule as of this post codes NASA(TESS) launch time as Pacific time. But I think the 19:58 time is Eastern.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/12/2018 10:30 PM
Launch schedule as of this post codes NASA(TESS) launch time as Pacific time. But I think the 19:58 time is Eastern.

Fixed
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 02/14/2018 07:54 AM
There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

I think our (and other sites') highlighting the availability of those resources may have resulted in their firewalling.   :'( 

The best we may get in the future is just the Review schedule dates, which are listed above the .pdf download links on the site.  Those reviews seem to be taking place about a month before launches.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Craig_VG on 02/14/2018 05:23 PM
STP-2 is scheduled for a window from April until June and Arabsat is confirmed to be second launching Falcon Heavy, according to NASA's budget released today (Page 537).


Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/14/2018 05:33 PM
STP-2 is scheduled for a window from April until June and Arabsat is confirmed to be second launching Falcon Heavy, according to NASA's budget released today (Page 537).

So Arabsat around May and STP-2 around August?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Craig_VG on 02/14/2018 05:40 PM
STP-2 is scheduled for a window from April until June and Arabsat is confirmed to be second launching Falcon Heavy, according to NASA's budget released today (Page 537).

So Arabsat around May and STP-2 around August?

Exactly :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 02/14/2018 07:07 PM
you guys!!!! ....

At least your slips are measured in months instead of years now. :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/16/2018 03:23 AM
There were slips announced today varying from one day (PAZ) to almost a month (TESS) for what we expected to be the next 4 SpaceX flights.  Check the top post in the thread for the updated list.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 02/16/2018 04:26 PM
Since we have finally some info about next two FH flights -
Here is an update for "SpaceX FPIP".
Although there is a lot of guesses even for the schedule of next months...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/18/2018 04:37 PM
New article:
Quote
SpaceX 's next salvo in the space wars: Launching test satellites to bring the Web to billions
Quote
SpaceX is valued around $21.5 billion and has received at least $1 billion in investment from Google-parent Alphabet , as well as Fidelity. The company says it has over 100 missions on its upcoming launch manifest that are worth more than $12 billion in contracts.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-apos-next-salvo-space-161700220.html

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

Also other interesting data in the article for other threads.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/18/2018 04:52 PM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 02/18/2018 05:19 PM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.
Hans (?) gave us the$12bn number. Can we calculate back from this? 12*10^9 / 100*10^6 = 120. This rough approximation supports more than 100 open flights.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/18/2018 05:23 PM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

That would be my guess, unless they are also hiding a compete class of launches such as tourist flights.  Could there also be a set of flights on the NSS side for an early constellation that is still dark?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/18/2018 05:49 PM
Telesat has a 120-140 sat constellation that is on the verge of being built. 
Haven't announced who is building or launching... starts in 2020.
Quote
Telesat to announce manufacturing plans for LEO constellation in coming months
http://spacenews.com/telesat-to-announce-manufacturing-plans-for-leo-constellation-in-coming-months/?utm_content=buffer04cee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

No connection at all with Spacex AFAIK, but accounts for a batch of launches that aren't yet shown on any manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/19/2018 01:29 AM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/19/2018 01:54 AM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/19/2018 02:00 AM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

So, what would you say?
5-10 other commercial/government launches?
50 Starlink launches?

Edit: According to Gunter's Space Page's "Recently awarded GEO-Sat Contracts" list (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sat/sat-contracts.htm), there are by my count 12 commercial satellites that have been ordered without confirmed launch vehicles:
* DirecTV 16 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/directv-16.htm)
* KMiSatCom 1 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/kmilsatcom-1.htm)
* SatKomHan 1 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/satkomhan-1.htm)
* ViaSat Americas and ViaSat EMEA (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)
* Inmarsat-6 F1 and F2 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/inmarsat-6.htm)
* Arabsat 6D (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/arabsat-6d.htm)
* ETS 9 (Kiku 9) (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/ets-9.htm)
* Jupiter 3/EchoStar 24 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/jupiter-3.htm)
* Palapa N1 (Nasantara 1) (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/palapa-n1.htm)
* Techo 1 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/techo-1.htm)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 02/19/2018 03:31 AM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: macpacheco on 02/19/2018 02:43 PM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?
Let's not forget natl security launches which were only announced a few months prior. Some are that secret...
And although not common, customers can ask for secrecy too.
Probably not even 20% of the balance though.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/19/2018 06:11 PM
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

Doing the math, an assumption of $100M/launch is quite high, especially after Block 5 is on the scene and a majority of launches are reused, selling for something like 50-60% of that figure.  At <$100M, that's >120 launches... makes the problem worse, not better.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 02/20/2018 12:26 AM
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

There just isn't that many launches, yet.

Edit: My point is that a flight rate of 25-30 would likely be enough to keep up to the manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 02/20/2018 10:39 AM
I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

Doing the math, an assumption of $100M/launch is quite high, especially after Block 5 is on the scene and a majority of launches are reused, selling for something like 50-60% of that figure.  At <$100M, that's >120 launches... makes the problem worse, not better.

Assuming a $60M average price gets you 200 launches.  Average of $120M/launch gets you 100 launches.  All the article claimed was >100 and given the roundness, my feeling was that the author just looked at those numbers ($60M<Avg. price for all launches<$120M, when accounting for CRS, Crew, NSS, FH, etc.) and went with it as a fairly safe estimate.  My point isn't so much about the math (inherently YMMV), as that I didn't feel like we were seeing a solid estimate of the actual number of missions on contract in that article.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: niwax on 02/20/2018 10:51 AM
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/20/2018 04:45 PM
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.

I believe her recent comment was that they won over half of the launches they competed last year (maybe she said both, but only heard the competition bit).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/20/2018 05:36 PM
This thread is for tracking the actual known missions that make up the manifest.  Let's put aside further discussion of the vague future manifest numbers or launch market share.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/22/2018 12:45 PM
Quote
For @IridiumComm, if @SpaceX launches today OK as planned, the 5th IRDM 10-sat Falcon 9 launch should occur on March 29. Then 6th F9 launch end-April.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/966668323093086209
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 02/22/2018 12:51 PM
4 week cadence.  Probably applies to remainder of constellation.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 02/22/2018 07:55 PM
SpaceX was granted two licenses today, one for a launch/landing (mentions recovery boat?) from "Cape Canaveral," NET 04/02/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82665

The other is a launch license for Mission 1418 from LC-40, NET 03/30/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82662

Even assuming the license windows to be less than deadly accurate, that's an insane schedule for LC-40 alone. Probably just stale dates + vagueness (maybe even a 39A shakedown launch before TESS?), I simply can't see SpaceX actually doing two launches at the same pad in just four days. Only confusing because those dates match up exactly with the current NETs for CRS-14 and Bangabandhu...

Edit: Oh god, doesn't even take into account Iridium-5, now NET 03/29/30... three launches in five days would be exciting and impressive as hell, but seems like an insanely aggressive - if not impossible - schedule ;D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/22/2018 08:06 PM
SpaceX was granted two licenses today, one for a launch/landing (mentions recovery boat?) from "Cape Canaveral," NET 04/02/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82665

The other is a launch license for Mission 1418 from LC-40, NET 03/30/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82662

Even assuming the license windows to be less than deadly accurate, that's an insane schedule for LC-40 alone. Probably just stale dates + vagueness (maybe even a 39A shakedown launch before TESS?), I simply can't see SpaceX actually doing two launches at the same pad in just four days. Only confusing because those dates match up exactly with the current NETs for CRS-14 and Bangabandhu...

Edit: Oh god, doesn't even take into account Iridium-5, now NET 03/29/30... three launches in five days would be exciting and impressive as hell, but seems like an insanely aggressive - if not impossible - schedule ;D

I think those two licenses are for the same flight (probably Bangabandhu-1).  The schedule at SLC-40 will be very interesting, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bangabandhu-1 slips behind the NASA launches just because they have more constraints on their launch dates.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 02/22/2018 08:12 PM
I think those two licenses are for the same flight (probably Bangabandhu-1).  The schedule at SLC-40 will be very interesting, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bangabandhu-1 slips behind the NASA launches just because they have more constraints on their launch dates.

That's the most logical explanation, agreed. They appear to have been filed at the same time, so you're likely correct. Just not like SpaceX to have inconsistent dates for the launch and landing licenses, especially those filed simultaneously... ???

Indeed, the scheduling will be intriguing to watch. Awkward to balance two government payloads :D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Tass on 02/24/2018 09:39 AM
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.

Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 02/24/2018 12:35 PM
A lot of changes recently, here is an updated FPIP.
There are no launches scheduled for 39A in March-April, obviously some construction is going on there.
So, is there any clue on when the first Falcon from 39A will fly?
Will be quite helpfull for this chart ;)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 02/24/2018 05:34 PM
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.

Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)
Special meaning... it was a "failure to expend" in that the core didn't self destruct as planned, and had to be cleaned up later. Go back a few pages in this and the companion format discussion thread, there was a pretty thorough discussion of this. Granted some of it is a bit of geek humor but the marking fits.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Tass on 02/25/2018 05:51 PM
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.

Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)
Special meaning... it was a "failure to expend" in that the core didn't self destruct as planned, and had to be cleaned up later. Go back a few pages in this and the companion format discussion thread, there was a pretty thorough discussion of this. Granted some of it is a bit of geek humor but the marking fits.

Ah :) That does make some sense.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/27/2018 02:52 PM
SpaceX filed for a couple more FCC launch permits:

Mission 1420 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=83117&RequestTimeout=1000) from SLC-4E NET 4/28, should be Iridium 6.  (File Number 0354-EX-ST-2018)
Mission 1465 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=83119&RequestTimeout=1000) from SLC-40 NET 4/30, SES-12? (File Number 0355-EX-ST-2018)

No recovery communications permits filed for either yet, but they don't have to be filed at the same time.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Inoeth on 02/27/2018 09:54 PM
So this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/27/2018 10:51 PM
So this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?

Should be on a rideshare, maybe one of the Spaceflight GTO missions
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: deruch on 02/28/2018 09:41 AM
A lot of changes recently, here is an updated FPIP.
There are no launches scheduled for 39A in March-April, obviously some construction is going on there.
So, is there any clue on when the first Falcon from 39A will fly?
Will be quite helpfull for this chart ;)

I actually think Bangabandhu-1 will launch from LC-39A instead of SLC-40 (based on the fact that I think "Mission 1380" from FCC filings is Bang-1 and not TESS).  IMO, that it will likely be the first Block 5 booster launch increases this likelihood. 

So, the pad stand-down for 39A you're speculating on may not be quite as long as you've currently got it.  But, the above is, so far, unconfirmed sleuthing/speculation on my part as well.  YMMV.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 02/28/2018 10:42 AM
So this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?

Should be on a rideshare, maybe one of the Spaceflight GTO missions

Indeed: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41724.msg1614594#msg1614594
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cscott on 02/28/2018 02:09 PM

I actually think Bangabandhu-1 will launch from LC-39A instead of SLC-40 (based on the fact that I think "Mission 1380" from FCC filings is Bang-1 and not TESS).  IMO, that it will likely be the first Block 5 booster launch increases this likelihood. 

So, the pad stand-down for 39A you're speculating on may not be quite as long as you've currently got it.  But, the above is, so far, unconfirmed sleuthing/speculation on my part as well.  YMMV.

This would be consistent with some pad work required to support block 5 and Bangabandhu being the first block 5 launch.  "Pad work required for block 5" is speculation, of course, but nothing that contradicts that has come up so far. As smoliarm's FPIP indicates, Block 4 launches (TESS in particular) would continue at SLC-40 until block 5 has been sufficiently validatated to switch over the SLC-40 GSE to block 5 (at which point no more block 4 cores could fly from the Cape). The prediction would be that CRS-15 would either be a Block 5 or would move to SLC-40.

EDIT: it's "speculation", but no more so than deruch or smoliarm's posts. We're all trying to put clues together to come up with an assignment of cores to dates and pads. Second sentence of OP is "best guess".
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 02/28/2018 02:33 PM
"Pad work required for block 5" is total speculation, of course

If it's total speculation then it doesn't belong in this thread.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 03/01/2018 03:58 PM
SpaceX open media accreditation for the Falcon 9 Bangabandhu Satellite-1 launch in April... and the launch is from KSC's 39A, which is returning to Falcon 9 duty following the Falcon Heavy launch.

HAWTHORNE, Calif. – Mar. 1, 2018. Media accreditation is now open for SpaceX's Bangabandhu Satellite-1 mission from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The launch is targeted for no earlier than April.

A Falcon 9 rocket will deliver Bangabandhu Satellite-1 to a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).

And the SpaceX Media Accreditation just stated that Bangabandhu mission will launch from LC39A! NET april.
So that would make 3 different launches on 3 different launch pads within days!
- IridiumNext-5 from SCL-4E --> NET March 29th
- Bangabadhu from LC39A --> NET April (1st?)
- CRS-14 from SLC40 --> NET April 2nd

I am sure Bangabandhu will shift a bit to the right, but not much as TESS is scheduled NET April 16th...

edit:typo
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Barrie on 03/01/2018 06:05 PM
- Bangabadhu from LC39A --> NET April (1st?)
- CRS-14 from SLC40 --> NET April 2nd

Maybe an opportunity for the range to do 2 in 24, possibly made easier by both being F9?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: IanThePineapple on 03/01/2018 06:13 PM
- Bangabadhu from LC39A --> NET April (1st?)
- CRS-14 from SLC40 --> NET April 2nd

Maybe an opportunity for the range to do 2 in 24, possibly made easier by both being F9?

That would be an excellent test, but everything would have to go perfectly, payloads being ready, weather staying acceptable, static fires going well, eyc.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/01/2018 06:25 PM
There is no indication Bangabandhu-1 is flying on April 1.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jjyach on 03/01/2018 06:36 PM
There is no indication Bangabandhu-1 is flying on April 1.

To follow up to gongora, it's extemely doubtful to meet a 4/1 launch date, even it it wasn't a new block.   That will certainly add time.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Barrie on 03/01/2018 07:16 PM
I wasn't taking those dates as gospel by any means, but if they start out close they may stay close as they slip, possibly swapping order. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/05/2018 01:07 PM
New manifest flight?
Quote
SpaceX Moon Mission To Set Up Lunar Mobile Network Underway
https://www.christianpost.com/news/spacex-moon-mission-to-set-up-lunar-mobile-network-underway-220195/

No. Look back around reply #308 in this thread.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Chris Bergin on 03/09/2018 07:06 PM
ARTICLE: SpaceX manifest: company aims for five Falcon 9 launches in one month -

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/03/spacex-manifest-five-falcon-9-launches-one-month/

- By Chris Gebhardt
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 03/09/2018 07:42 PM
ARTICLE: SpaceX manifest: company aims for five Falcon 9 launches in one month -

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/03/spacex-manifest-five-falcon-9-launches-one-month/

- By Chris Gebhardt

Six launches in 32 days, five launches in 28 days, three launches from three pads in one week, and the debut of Block 5 ;D Even if there are delays to several missions, it will still be an absolutely bonkers cadence for SpaceX.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 03/14/2018 11:43 AM
Two new launches:
Quote
Maxar Technologies’ DigitalGlobe Selects SpaceX to Launch its Next-generation WorldView Legion Satellites
Quote
The initial block of the multi-satellite WorldView Legion constellation will be launched by two flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets in 2021.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180314005049/en/Maxar-Technologies%E2%80%99-DigitalGlobe-Selects-SpaceX-Launch-Next-generation
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 03/14/2018 03:52 PM
Two new launches:
Quote
Maxar Technologies’ DigitalGlobe Selects SpaceX to Launch its Next-generation WorldView Legion Satellites
Quote
The initial block of the multi-satellite WorldView Legion constellation will be launched by two flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets in 2021.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180314005049/en/Maxar-Technologies%E2%80%99-DigitalGlobe-Selects-SpaceX-Launch-Next-generation
Thread for above
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45220
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/14/2018 08:55 PM
Quote
Shotwell @spacex: 2018 is the first year when we will be waiting for our customers (and not other way around).#satshow2018

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/973968407166144512
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Dante80 on 03/14/2018 09:00 PM
Quote
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Hawthorne, California, has been awarded a $290,594,130 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver the GPS III to its intended orbit.  This contract provides launch vehicle production, mission integration/launch operations/spaceflight worthiness and mission unique activities for a GPS III mission, with options for two additional GPS III launch services. Work will be performed in Hawthorne, California; Cape Canaveral Air Force Space Station, Florida; and McGregor, Texas, and is expected to be complete by March 2020.  This award is the result of a competitive acquisition and two offers were received.  Fiscal 2017 and 2018 space procurement funding in the amount of $96,937,905 will be obligated at the time of award.  The Contracting Division, Launch Systems Enterprise Directorate, Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California is the contracting activity (FA8811-18-C-0001).

https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1466539// (https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1466539//)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 03/14/2018 09:09 PM
Quote
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Hawthorne, California, has been awarded a $290,594,130 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver the GPS III to its intended orbit.  This contract provides launch vehicle production, mission integration/launch operations/spaceflight worthiness and mission unique activities for a GPS III mission, with options for two additional GPS III launch services. Work will be performed in Hawthorne, California; Cape Canaveral Air Force Space Station, Florida; and McGregor, Texas, and is expected to be complete by March 2020.  This award is the result of a competitive acquisition and two offers were received.  Fiscal 2017 and 2018 space procurement funding in the amount of $96,937,905 will be obligated at the time of award.  The Contracting Division, Launch Systems Enterprise Directorate, Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California is the contracting activity (FA8811-18-C-0001).

https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1466539// (https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1466539//)

Just to make it extra clear, the $290.5m sum almost certainly includes all three prospective GPS III launches, as $96.9m is almost exactly one third of that figure.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Dante80 on 03/14/2018 09:28 PM

Just to make it extra clear, the $290.5m sum almost certainly includes all three prospective GPS III launches, as $96.9m is almost exactly one third of that figure.

Yes, of course. This contract round went pretty much as expected. SpaceX got the three GPS flights, and ULA got the two GEO direct flights (AFSPC-8 and AFSPC-12)

Quote
United Launch Services, Centennial, Colorado, has been awarded a $354,811,947 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver the AFSPC-8 and AFSPC-12 satellites to their intended orbit.  This contract provides launch vehicle production, mission integration/launch operations/spaceflight worthiness, mission unique activities, and mission unique options for the AFSPC-8 and AFSPC-12 missions. Work will be performed in Centennial, Colorado; Decatur, Alabama; and Cape Canaveral, Florida, and is expected to be complete by June 2020; and March 2020, respectively.  This award is the result of a competitive acquisition and two offers were received.  Fiscal 2017 and 2018 space procurement; and fiscal 2018 research, development, test, and evaluation funding in the amount of $354,811,947 will be obligated at the time of award.  The Contracting Division, Launch Systems Enterprise Directorate, Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California is the contracting activity (FA8811-18-C-0002).

https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1466539// (https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1466539//)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Michael Baylor on 03/14/2018 09:51 PM
The two GEO sats was a competitive process. Was this the first time that SpaceX has bid on a GEO launch for the Air Force?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/14/2018 09:52 PM
So should I interpret that as the GPS III-4 launch would be scheduled around March 2020 and the two options (GPS III-5, III-6) afterward?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/14/2018 09:53 PM
The two GEO sats was a competitive process. Was this the first time that SpaceX has bid on a GEO launch for the Air Force?

The RFP thread would be a better place to continue discussion of who got awarded what...
RFP For Five Air Force Launches : GPS x 3, AFSPC-8, AFSPC-12 (FA8811-17-R-0004) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43266.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Michael Baylor on 03/14/2018 10:28 PM
GPS-III-3 is not on the manifest. Didn't SpaceX win that one as well?
http://www.losangeles.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1113835/spacex-awarded-contract-for-gps-iii-3-launch-services/

Edit 2: Ignore previous edit of me being confused. The date on the article was March 14th from last year so I thought it was today.  ;D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/14/2018 10:41 PM
GPS-III-3 is not on the manifest. Didn't SpaceX win that one as well?
http://www.losangeles.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1113835/spacex-awarded-contract-for-gps-iii-3-launch-services/

Edit 2: Ignore previous edit of me being confused. The date on the article was March 14th from last year so I thought it was today.  ;D

Just to clarify for anyone who missed it, it seems that the Air Force decided to swap the GPS III-1 and GPS III-3 launches between SpaceX and ULA.  Now SpaceX seems to have GPS III-1 and III-2, ULA has III-3, SpaceX has III-4,5,6.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/14/2018 11:11 PM
Air Force Awards Launch Services Contracts to SpaceX and ULA (http://www.losangeles.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1466717/air-force-awards-launch-services-contracts-to-spacex-and-ula/#.WqmtcXW0_uw.twitter)
Quote
LOS ANGELES AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. --
The Air Force announced today the award of two Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) launch service contracts.  Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) has been awarded a $290,594,130 firm-fixed-price contract, for launch services to deliver three GPS III missions (1 base and 2 options) to the intended orbit.  United Launch Alliance (ULA) has been awarded a $351,839,510 firm-fixed-price contract, for launch services to deliver Air Force Space Command (AFSPC)-8 and AFSPC-12 satellites to the intended orbit.  Both contracts provide the Government with a total launch solution for these missions, which includes launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations, and spaceflight certification.  These missions are planned to be launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station or Kennedy Space Center, Florida.

This is the fourth competition under the current Phase 1A procurement strategy.  These launch service contract awards strike a balance between meeting operational needs and lowering launch costs through reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions.

“The competitive award of these two EELV launch service contracts directly supports Space and Missile Systems Center’s (SMC’s) mission of delivering resilient and affordable space capabilities to our Nation while maintaining assured access to space,” said Lt Gen John F. Thompson, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.

The three GPS III missions will deliver sustained, reliable GPS capabilities to America’s warfighters, our allies, and civil users. GPS provides positioning, navigation, and timing service to civil and military users worldwide.  The GPS III missions are planned to launch between late 2019 and 2020.

The AFSPC-8 mission comprises two identical Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP) satellites, known as GSSAP 5 & 6. AFSPC-8 is planned to launch in 2020 into a geosynchronous orbit.

The AFSPC-12 mission comprises a forward space vehicle (SV) and an aft SV.  The forward SV is known as the Wide Field of View (WFOV) Testbed and the aft SV is a propulsive Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) that hosts auxiliary payloads.  AFSPC-12 is planned to launch in 2020 into a geosynchronous orbit.

The Air Force Space Command's Space and Missile Systems Center, located at the Los Angeles Air Force Base, California, is the U.S. Air Force's center of excellence for acquiring and developing military space systems.  Its portfolio includes the Global Positioning System, military satellite communications, defense meteorological satellites, space launch and range systems, satellite control networks, space-based infrared systems, and space situational awareness capabilities.

Media representatives can submit questions for response regarding this topic by sending an e-mail to [email protected]

I'm kinda expecting those GPS launches to slip to the right, but I'll use their dates for now.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 03/15/2018 06:12 PM
The Air Force seems to like the option of cheaper access to space.  SpaceX has 3 launches for less than the cost of ULA's 2 launches.

But they also showed that they want redundancy in the market.

Great job SpaceX, looking forward to seeing more wins.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 03/20/2018 03:26 AM
Do we have this yet?

Re: SpaceX F9 : Iridium NEXT 6 with GRACE-FO : late April, 2018
NET April 28.  (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=83117) No mention of recovery ops in this particular STA. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/20/2018 07:50 PM
[Space News] Spacecom less than two months from Amos-8 purchase (http://spacenews.com/spacecom-less-than-two-months-from-amos-8-purchase/)
Quote
Israeli fleet operator Spacecom is very close to purchasing a new satellite dubbed Amos-8, a company official said March 14.
...
Keret said Amos-17, a replacement for Amos-5, remains on track for a 2019 SpaceX launch. Spacecom is using money paid toward the launch of Amos-6 to launch Amos-17, and intends to launch Amos-8 with SpaceX as well. 

I was starting to wonder if Amos-8 was actually going to happen.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 03/23/2018 03:10 PM
Here is updated "FPIP-chart" - in slightly modified format:
Pale-green marks show launches which are listed in green dash frames.
For those satellites we know just the fact they are scheduled for second half 2018.
Therefore these marks are not labelled and they are at arbitrary-even spacing.

As more information on particular flight become available - the mark will change color and get label :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Bubbinski on 03/23/2018 04:49 PM
So Bangabandhu/Block 5 is moving to the right from April 5th?

What’s the exact new date they’re working toward? I see it’s after TESS...one suggestion to improve the SX “FPIP” would be to put in little date hashmarks on the bottom.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/23/2018 05:08 PM
So Bangabandhu/Block 5 is moving to the right from April 5th?

What’s the exact new date they’re working toward? I see it’s after TESS...one suggestion to improve the SX “FPIP” would be to put in little date hashmarks on the bottom.

We don't have a date for it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 03/23/2018 09:16 PM
So Bangabandhu/Block 5 is moving to the right from April 5th?

What’s the exact new date they’re working toward? I see it’s after TESS...one suggestion to improve the SX “FPIP” would be to put in little date hashmarks on the bottom.

Well, there is no such thing as "exact date" with respect to SpaceX  ;)
But Bangabandhu did move to the right, exactly to "NET late April".

Quote
one suggestion to improve the SX “FPIP” would be to put in little date hashmarks on the bottom.
- sorry, I can't do this because most of the blue marks DO NOT have actual DATE.

You should treat this chart as an illustration to the TABLE in the first post of the topic - an illustration WITH some amount of guessing.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 03/23/2018 09:33 PM
Here is updated "FPIP-chart" - in slightly modified format:
Pale-green marks show launches which are listed in green dash frames.
For those satellites we know just the fact they are scheduled for second half 2018.
Therefore these marks are not labelled and they are at arbitrary-even spacing.

As more information on particular flight become available - the mark will change color and get label :)

Nice update!! I love the way you implemented the no-date-yet mission! Very nice add-on. 😉😎
It gives a nice impression of the tight schedule that are on this year.
Several possibilities of all three launch sites lauching in close succession.
Keep up the great work!
 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: russianhalo117 on 03/24/2018 07:50 PM
[Space News] Spacecom less than two months from Amos-8 purchase (http://spacenews.com/spacecom-less-than-two-months-from-amos-8-purchase/)
Quote
Israeli fleet operator Spacecom is very close to purchasing a new satellite dubbed Amos-8, a company official said March 14.
...
Keret said Amos-17, a replacement for Amos-5, remains on track for a 2019 SpaceX launch. Spacecom is using money paid toward the launch of Amos-6 to launch Amos-17, and intends to launch Amos-8 with SpaceX as well. 

I was starting to wonder if Amos-8 was actually going to happen.
An intent to contract for Amos-8 to allow the ordering of long lead items was in closed doors discussion at the end of April so likelihood is high.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 03/26/2018 06:56 PM
Done deal on AMOS-8.
Amos-8 2H 2020 F9
Amos-17 2019
BSAT-4B ?

http://spacenews.com/ssl-bags-amos-8-and-bsat-4b-manufacturing-contracts/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 03/28/2018 05:19 AM
https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/978789863452561410?s=21

Via twitter.

Me: “Speaking of questions...
Will your amazing sats fly on a new Block-5 too, maybe being first at RTLS on West coast?”

Matt Desch: “Likely for Launches 7 and/or 8.  RTLS at SpaceX discretion - we just ask them to get us to the right place in space, and anything after that is just sheer entertainment and showing off as far as we're concerned.”
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vanoord on 03/28/2018 09:09 AM
I wonder if we'll see Block 5 "RTLS" at Vandenberg being a recovery to an ASDS 20-30 miles offshore?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: yokem55 on 03/28/2018 02:36 PM
I wonder if we'll see Block 5 "RTLS" at Vandenberg being a recovery to an ASDS 20-30 miles offshore?
Little point in that. The ASDS recovery process would take just as long to get it back to their port facility in LA. Now if they could dock the ASDS in Vandenberg, it might make sense, but I doubt the infrastructure is there to handle the stage.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 03/28/2018 03:15 PM
I wonder if we'll see Block 5 "RTLS" at Vandenberg being a recovery to an ASDS 20-30 miles offshore?
Little point in that. The ASDS recovery process would take just as long to get it back to their port facility in LA. Now if they could dock the ASDS in Vandenberg, it might make sense, but I doubt the infrastructure is there to handle the stage.

Depending on the approvals needed to RTLS.  Have they been granted approval for RTLS at VAFB?

It will be fantastic when it does happen.  There aren't many missions from VAFB (until Starlink perhaps) but the ones that do fly seem to be RTLS appropriate.  So maybe the ASDS won't get used much on the west coast.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 03/30/2018 11:00 PM
[Space News] Iridium Next enters the homestretch (http://spacenews.com/iridium-next-enters-the-homestretch/)
Quote
We’re saying August now in terms of when the constellation launches will be done and the drifters will be in place.]We’re saying August now in terms of when the constellation launches will be done and the drifters will be in place.

[Spaceflight Now] Iridium messaging network gets another boost from SpaceX (https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/03/30/iridium-messaging-network-gets-another-boost-from-spacex/)
Quote
“It’s meeting our needs,” Desch said. “We really are focused on completing our Iridium Next constellation this year. I’d like it completed in the third quarter if possible. What I’m really pleased with is that SpaceX has stepped up this year so far.
...
Three more Iridium satellite launches are planned by SpaceX, with the next one in May.

So Iridium 8 might slip to August.  Maybe SSO-A can still get a July slot.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Shanuson on 04/04/2018 03:03 PM
German news article about the current CRS mission mentions at the end the next Dragon flight to the ISS with a date of June the 28th. Link: http://m.faz.net/aktuell/wissen/weltraum/experimente-fuer-astro-alex-auf-dem-weg-ins-all-15524379.html
Cheers
Shanuson

Edit: spelling.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 04/04/2018 03:21 PM
German news article about the current crs mission mentions at the end the next Drogon flight to the ISS with a date of June the 28th. Link: http://m.faz.net/aktuell/wissen/weltraum/experimente-fuer-astro-alex-auf-dem-weg-ins-all-15524379.html
Cheers
Shanuson

I'd like another confirmation of that before changing the manifest (I wouldn't be surprised if it really has moved a couple weeks.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 04/04/2018 05:05 PM
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Quote
A Falcon 9 will launch the Telstar 19 communication satellite, likely from pad 40, on early June TBD. And a Falcon 9, likely from pad 40, will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the ISS on June 28, roughly around 5am EDT. The launch time gets 22-26 minutes earlier per day.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 04/16/2018 10:37 PM
Updated "FPIP-chart".
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: tleski on 04/16/2018 10:46 PM
For the record, cross-posting from the STP-2 thread. It looks like the manifest is already updated to reflect this.

On the Space Show dated April 10th, Casey Dreier (Planetary Society) mentioned that the Lightsail-2 launch slipped from June to September. It would mean STP-2 slipped. Do we have any information confirming this from other sources? He seems to be pretty well informed.

Link to the interview (the Lightsail-2 is discussed ~33minutes into the show):
http://thespaceshow.com/show/10-apr-2018/broadcast-3098-casey-dreier
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 04/19/2018 05:29 PM
Ben Cooper has been posting frequent updates to his Falcon 9 launch schedule, he seems to be our best source of info right now.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the first satellite for the country of
Bangladesh, Bangabandhu 1, from pad 39A, on May 4 at the earliest, in the afternoon EDT. Then, a
Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the SES-12 communication satellite on mid-May TBD, in the
evening EDT. A Falcon 9 will launch the Telstar 19 communication satellite, likely from pad 40, on
early June TBD. A Falcon 9, likely from pad 40, will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the
ISS on June 28, roughly around 5am EDT. The launch time gets 22-26 minutes earlier per day. A
Falcon 9 will launch Telstar 18 in early July TBD. And a Falcon 9 will launch the Telkom 4
communication satellite for Indonesia on late July TBD
.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 04/19/2018 07:47 PM
Anyone hear or be willing to bet that the next FH flight doesn’t happen until after the Crew Dragon demo flight?

Edit:  it looks like it’s drifting that way.  If it gets close one would think crew gets priority.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: abaddon on 04/19/2018 08:10 PM
Quite possible Crew Dragon demo flight slides right too.  We'll just have to wait and see how things shake out.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 04/20/2018 12:26 AM
A lot of new info on SpaceX schedule in the last days, so here is the updated "FPIP":
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1704237#msg1704237

And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.
On this chart launch dates are recalculated in fraction of year, so that slopes of best-fit lines give us number of launches per year.
The best-fit for 2018 was calculated for performed launches.
So far SpaceX keep launch cadence almost 50% higher than in 2017 :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/20/2018 06:53 AM
And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.

Many thanks for that. Remarkable consistency within each of the last three years, with all launches close to the best fit lines. Clearly shows too the doubling of launch rate in 2 years. I wonder if Block 5 and the demands of Starlink will push it much higher?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/20/2018 07:23 AM
Not a surprise but good to know still on track, even if next launch has slipped to Q3:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Expect a 'couple more' Falcon Heavy launches this year
EMRE KELLY  |  FLORIDA TODAY Updated 3 hours ago

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2018/04/19/spacex-shotwell-expect-couple-more-falcon-heavy-launches-year/535071002/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 04/20/2018 09:14 AM
And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.

... I wonder if Block 5 and the demands of Starlink will push it much higher?

Well, my guess is that the gain in tempo which we see this year is mostly because of the reused boosters.
Therefore, yes - theoretically, block 5 will (should) allow higher launch cadence.
Or at least, block 5 will make them closer to "launch on demand" scheme.
However, in reality I would expect no increase in launch tempo next year, just because it seems SpaceX don't have enough orders for that.
Also, I'd expect a bit lower launch rate in the second half of this year - due to Dragon v2 and STP missions.
AIUI, these launches are very demanding in both resources and manpower.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 04/20/2018 04:39 PM
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 04/20/2018 09:10 PM
The 30-40 launches per year stated by GS indicates/allows another 50% increase next year (24ish --> 36ish). 

I also expect the Starlink launches to start next year, but not with test satellites; early generation satellites will be less capable, but getting started on working out the complexities of coordinated constellation operations should push the first batch out asap... from existing Seattle facilities, in a mostly hand-assembled production line.

The following year, 2020, should see a significant bump due to these deployments, but don't think we'll have much information or lead time in advance of actual launches.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 04/20/2018 09:20 PM
The 30-40 launches per year stated by GS indicates/allows another 50% increase next year. 

I also expect the Starlink launches to start next year, but not with test satellites; early generation satellites will be less capable, but getting started on working out the complexities of coordinated constellation operations should push the first batch out asap... from existing Seattle facilities, in a mostly hand-assembled production line.

The following year, 2020, should see a significant bump due to these deployments, but don't think we'll have much information or lead time in advance of actual launches.

If SpaceX hits 25 launches this year they will eat up alot of their manifest.  They don't really need to go higher than 25 until there is more demand.  Starlink creates their own demand.  30 launches next year could give them 5-6 star link launches.

If they are recovering fairings by that time then their deployment costs will be very enviable.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 04/20/2018 09:27 PM
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

You didn't restart this diversion Lar, but isn't this thread about the schedule of specific missions, rather than general discussions of launch cadence and hypothetical missions? 
The policy was to put missions on this Manifest when they are announced, either by a satellite provider or SpaceX, such as when Musk announced the beyond-the-moon tourist flight and the Red Dragon landings.
In accordance with this criterion, Starlink, for one, is not on the manifest, but "Mars" in 2022 is. 
There are threads specifically for launch cadence and backlog.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 04/20/2018 09:32 PM
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

As of summer 2017, the public plan from Patricia Cooper was real launches beginning in 2019. It's pretty clear that dedicated launches wont happen until Block 5 is proven out as a highly reusable vehicle, but that could potentially be as soon as later this year :D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: DaveJes1979 on 04/24/2018 08:33 PM
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 04/24/2018 08:39 PM
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.

Iridium 7 and 8 shouldn't be expendable, probably ASDS.  There are a number of other missions coming up on the West Coast and most of them will be less than half the mass of an Iridium mission (not sure how much mass the Spaceflight rideshares will end up with.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Michael Baylor on 04/28/2018 04:46 AM
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.
Both SAOCOM launches are pretty obvious candidates. Those won't be until later in the year though.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 04/28/2018 05:00 AM
FWIW, JRTI now has two thrusters installed and two more onboard. Should be ready to return to action fairly soon.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/08/2018 05:37 PM
Iridium 7 is NET July 9 with ASDS landing per the FCC STA requests for launch communications and stage recovery filed today.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Lar on 05/08/2018 10:35 PM
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

You didn't restart this diversion Lar, but isn't this thread about the schedule of specific missions, rather than general discussions of launch cadence and hypothetical missions? 
The policy was to put missions on this Manifest when they are announced, either by a satellite provider or SpaceX, such as when Musk announced the beyond-the-moon tourist flight and the Red Dragon landings.
In accordance with this criterion, Starlink, for one, is not on the manifest, but "Mars" in 2022 is. 
There are threads specifically for launch cadence and backlog.

Correct. Cadence, Starlink, even JRTI thruster status, off topic.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/10/2018 06:44 PM
Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

[...]

Hmm, double would be 36 and China may do 40 launches this year. So is Elon ‘rounding up’ or are we missing some launches on the manifest? The former seems more likely to me.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 05/11/2018 09:56 AM
Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

[...]

Hmm, double would be 36 and China may do 40 launches this year. So is Elon ‘rounding up’ or are we missing some launches on the manifest? The former seems more likely to me.

Well, IIRC, recently Gwynne said they plan to do 26 to 30 launches this year. On other occasion she noted they are going to make "about 50% more launches" than in 2017. Which is consistent with the first one (18*1.5 = 27).
So basically we have here a good example of scale coefficient for conversion of "Elon's numbers" into "Gwynne's":
Her 50% equal to "double" in Elon's scale.

And with respect to China -
I doubt that Elon keeps close attention on Chinese launch plans. Last year China launched 18 times, in 2016 they did 22 launches... So my guess, Elon just assumes something similar for this year too.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 05/11/2018 05:21 PM
Cadence, China, etc.: Please see Lar's post (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1819321#msg1819321) three back
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Bubbinski on 05/11/2018 10:42 PM
Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 05/11/2018 10:44 PM
Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

Put simply, unknown.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/11/2018 10:51 PM
Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

Most likely Telstar 19V
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: MATTBLAK on 05/11/2018 10:53 PM
How many Block III & IV's are left for use?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/11/2018 10:57 PM
How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

3-4 Block 4's, and three of them should fly in the next 2 months.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AbuSimbel on 05/11/2018 10:58 PM
How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

0 Block 3s, 3 (+ 1) Block 4s off the top of my mind.

Edit: checked 3 +1 block 4. (+1 because its fate is still unknown)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: MATTBLAK on 05/11/2018 11:00 PM
And this is what's left out of the 24x landed stages, yes? I've been trying to get my head round all the quantities of this and that.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 05/11/2018 11:15 PM
And this is what's left out of the 24x landed stages, yes? I've been trying to get my head round all the quantities of this and that.

Flightworthy, yes. I believe four Block 4s is correct - one for SES-12, Iridium-6, (likely) Dragon 2's launch abort, and then 1045 for CRS-15. There are at least several other mothballed Block 3 and 4 cores, but it still is pretty shocking how rapidly SpaceX has slimmed down its fleet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/12/2018 12:30 AM
Further discussion on reuse/fleets/etc moved to the General Falcon Discussion thread.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/12/2018 11:00 PM
Ben Cooper's list of upcoming flights (http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html) has gotten a few tweaks:
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the SES-12 communication satellite
on end of May TBD at the earliest at about 12:29am EDT. The launch window stretches to about
1:27am EDT. The next launch after that is TBD: A Falcon 9 will launch the Telstar 19 communication
satellite, from pad 40, on late June at the earliest. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the next
Dragon resupply mission to the ISS on June 28 at the earliest, at 6:03am EDT if that day. Sunrise
is 6:27am EDT. The launch window is instantaneous. The launch time gets 22-26 minutes earlier per
day. A Falcon 9 will launch Telstar 18 from pad 40 in mid July TBD. A Falcon 9 will launch the
Telkom 4 communication satellite from pad 40 for Indonesia on late July TBD. And a Falcon 9 will
launch the Es'hail-2 communication satellite in mid-August TBD

It looks like some slight slips of the next couple flights could happen but SpaceX could still be completely caught up on their East Coast F9 manifest by the end of the third quarter, which would be a huge accomplishment considering what their manifest looked like at the beginning of 2017.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 05/14/2018 11:21 AM
Cross-posting:
Here is the clarification of that 300 launches quote:
Quote
SpaceX will prob build 30 to 40 rocket cores for ~300 missions over 5 years. Then BFR takes over & Falcon retires. Goal of BFR is to enable anyone to move to moon, Mars & eventually outer planets.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/995462943079723008

Lots of wiggle room there for BFR arriving a bit late -- something like a factor of 10 more flights available from 'the fleet' than required.  300 flights in five years... hhhmmmmmm.  Must include the constellation finally.

Is this sufficient documentation to begin listing constellation flights?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 05/14/2018 12:59 PM
Here is an updated FPIP.
One of "pale-green box" with unclear flights is gone, thanks to Ben Cooper :)
Of course, there is still a lot of guesswork in the chart, especially for its right part,
but -
it is the FIRST time when I have *some references on scheduling* for FULL THREE months in advance AND for nine launches in the row.
Well, last year the picture was very different ;)
Go SpaceX !

PS: Also, I marked the three flights with block 4 boosters (green arrows).
One more block 4 core is available (B1042; Oct 30, 2017; KoreaSat 5A).

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/14/2018 01:32 PM
Is this sufficient documentation to begin listing constellation flights?

No
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: wannamoonbase on 05/14/2018 01:46 PM
Anyone else expect a schedule lag as the Block 4's are consumed and the Block 5's ramp up?

I think they'll launch more this year than last year, but that they could have a slow down in Jul, Aug, Sep as the Block 5's fly and make their second and third flights as they thoroughly learn how to fly their new toys.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: rockets4life97 on 05/14/2018 02:09 PM
Here is an updated FPIP.

I'm struck by the lack of commercial GTO satellites expected to fly in the last quarter of the year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/14/2018 03:19 PM
Anyone else expect a schedule lag as the Block 4's are consumed and the Block 5's ramp up?

I think they'll launch more this year than last year, but that they could have a slow down in Jul, Aug, Sep as the Block 5's fly and make their second and third flights as they thoroughly learn how to fly their new toys.

I created a place for further discussion about this: [Poll] How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018? (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45681.msg1821465#msg1821465)

I'm struck by the lack of commercial GTO satellites expected to fly in the last quarter of the year.

Well, some could always slip...  The GTO launch rate has to start slowing down next year since the order rate of new GTO sats has dropped over the past couple years, and SpaceX isn't going to get all of the launches.

For those who haven't noticed already, Iridum 6 slipped at least two days to the 21st, and Iridium flights will now finish by the end of the third quarter.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 05/22/2018 07:03 PM
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Discussion of this should probably be in other threads, just copying it here for those who have been wondering why there aren't 40 payloads listed for 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: AncientU on 05/24/2018 01:48 PM
Quote
ICEYE is aiming for a total of 9 upcoming satellite launches by the end of 2019 and is actively seeking out launch operators to continue the company’s rapid acceleration towards the future.
One prototype (#2) is co-manifested on F-9.  Others: #1 launched on PSLV. #3 scheduled for Electron.
Not an award, but a distinct possibility due to 2019 launches.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/28/2018 07:25 PM
Quote
Hello @IridiumBoss! Is there already any NET date for the Iridium-7 launch?

https://twitter.com/elthiryel/status/1001120220625408001

Quote
No, haven't provided a specific date , but iI'm expecting it in about mid to late July.

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/1001144325521231872

Edit: saw this on twitter & posted before I saw post here (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45725.msg1825969#msg1825969)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 06/07/2018 11:40 PM
Updated FPIP
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: eriblo on 06/08/2018 12:51 PM
Attended a presentation by Daniel De Lisle (CSA) on June 6 where he stated that the current "focus date" for RADARSAT Constellation (RCM) launch is November 7, one week into the contracted one month launch period. Should be able to at least say NET November.

EDIT: Added the mission for clarity ;)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: input~2 on 06/22/2018 02:49 PM
Saocom-1A announced for a launch on September 13, 2018 according to
https://mundo.sputniknews.com/radio_big_bang/201806221079787496-satelite-catastrofes-prevencion/  (https://mundo.sputniknews.com/radio_big_bang/201806221079787496-satelite-catastrofes-prevencion/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 06/22/2018 03:09 PM
Saocom-1A announced for a launch on September 13, 2018 according to
https://mundo.sputniknews.com/radio_big_bang/201806221079787496-satelite-catastrofes-prevencion/  (https://mundo.sputniknews.com/radio_big_bang/201806221079787496-satelite-catastrofes-prevencion/)

That would be the day after a scheduled ULA launch, so I wouldn't bet on it launching that exact day, but it seems to be the right timeframe.  The SpaceX launch dates at Vandenberg tend to move around a bit.  There was also a recent mention of it launching in the last quarter of the year: https://energia.rionegro.gov.ar/index.php?contID=45225
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/22/2018 08:57 PM
Is there sufficient info on timelines and launch quantities as well as which vehicle to add the Starlink launches as a TBD holder to the manifest?

My current estimate is
TBD (2019-2024) F9   [115 launches]
This covers only first half of constellation needed to be deployed by Apr 2024 (2200 sats).
If FH is used the number of launches is a unknown because of many factors related to the quantity of sats per launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 06/22/2018 09:01 PM
When SpaceX announces firmer plans for Starlink deployments we can add them to the manifest.  That will still be a while.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 06/26/2018 04:45 PM
SpaceX's Caryn Schenewerk spoke in the Commercial Space Transportation Regulatory Reform: Stakeholder Perspectives hearing this morning and her testimony included statements that SpaceX was targeting "50% more" launches than 2017 (~27) and/or "more than 25 [launches]" in 2018.

She also reiterated the claim that SpaceX has more than 100 missions on manifest with signed contracts worth more than $12 billion.

At least from the community's crowdsourced manifest, SpaceX has 17 missions at least tentatively penciled in for 2018, at least ~3 of which are almost certainly going to slip to 2019 (in-flight abort, Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, Arabsat 6A). The remaining ~14 missions would bring SpaceX to a total of...exactly 25 launches in 2018.

Regardless, now would be a great time for SpaceX to update its public-facing manifest...

https://transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2018-06-26_-_schenewerk_testimony.pdf
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 06/29/2018 06:27 PM
Ben Cooper's site (http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html) now shows the next couple flights from the Cape in the early mornings of July 22 (Telstar 19V) and August 2 (Telkom 4).  He has Telstar 18V as NET mid-August, and updated FCC filings show that as NET August 17.  There doesn't appear to be a West Coast flight from SpaceX in August.  September has a couple ULA launches scheduled at Vandenberg so it's gonna be busy out there if SpaceX also manages a September flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Alexphysics on 06/29/2018 09:28 PM
It seems Ben Cooper has updated Telstar 18V too, it shows August 17, like on the FCC permit, so all seems to fit nicely.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 06/30/2018 11:43 AM
Updated SpaceX "FPIP".

I'd like to repeat the disclaimer to this chart:
this is not an attempt to predict actual launch dates or actual launch sequence.
The chart is merely reflects our current knowledge on Falcon's launch schedule - from official (and semi-oficial) sources.

E.g., it is doubtful that the first Dragon v2 flight happens in Sept, yes. But the last official estimate I heard is NET Aug 31, therefore the placement of "Dragon v2" mark on the graph.

In general, I guess that 3-4 flights which are still in the graph - they will slip in 2019.
Nevertheless,
12 launches in 6 months - done. (well done :) )

Go SpaceX !
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: vaporcobra on 06/30/2018 11:34 PM
Grains of salt and such, but Brian Webb just updated his VAFB launch schedule.

(https://i.imgur.com/qrgiHCm.jpg)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Chris Bergin on 07/06/2018 03:59 PM
Includes Manifest overview:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/07/spacex-ula-manifests-spacex-1st-rtls-vandenberg/

- By Chris Gebhardt
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Olaf on 07/10/2018 02:57 PM
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/10/2018 03:05 PM
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

I'm not at all sure that the "@Cakeofdestiny" person is associated with SpaceIL or knows what it is launching on.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Nehkara on 07/10/2018 03:17 PM
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

I'm not at all sure that the "@Cakeofdestiny" person is associated with SpaceIL or knows what it is launching on.

This article confirms it is launching on Falcon 9 in December:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/248700
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 07/10/2018 03:19 PM
This article confirms it is launching on Falcon 9 in December:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/248700

As does this one: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israeli-spacecraft-set-for-trip-to-the-moon/

Quote
The probe will be launched sometime in December from Cape Canaveral aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, officials said during the media event, held at an Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) space technology site in Yehud. It is scheduled to land on February 13, 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Nehkara on 07/10/2018 03:22 PM
I think this is the Spaceflight GTO mission that is already on the manifest.  This says that the launch services with Falcon 9 were acquired through Spaceflight Industries.

https://lunar.xprize.org/press-release/israeli-google-lunar-xprize-team-first-sign-launch-agreement-private-mission

Mission will place the spacecraft into a 60,000 km apogee elliptical orbit and then it will make its own way to the moon.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 07/10/2018 03:25 PM
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850 (https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850)
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704 (https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704)
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

Yes, gongora, the first part of this post is "likable"  but the second part does not appear to be informed, reliable, or really say anything new.

It is odd how the "launch and landing dates" open in "December" but ends specifically on Feb 13.  That hints at a launch before February. (The first quarter moon of February 2019 occurs at 12:26 AM Feb 13 Tel Aviv time I believe.)  Does that narrow down our dates for the Spaceflight Services GTO launch?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 07/10/2018 03:27 PM
I think this is the Spaceflight GTO mission that is already on the manifest.  This says that the launch services with Falcon 9 were acquired through Spaceflight Industries.

https://lunar.xprize.org/press-release/israeli-google-lunar-xprize-team-first-sign-launch-agreement-private-mission

Mission will place the spacecraft into a 60,000 km apogee elliptical orbit and then it will make its own way to the moon.

And this would mean that the SpaceFlight GTO mission is actually happening and that it moved left from 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: mn on 07/10/2018 03:27 PM
This article confirms it is launching on Falcon 9 in December:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/248700

As does this one: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israeli-spacecraft-set-for-trip-to-the-moon/

Quote
The probe will be launched sometime in December from Cape Canaveral aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, officials said during the media event, held at an Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) space technology site in Yehud. It is scheduled to land on February 13, 2019.

The Times of Israel article also mentions that it will be a secondary payload, with the primary payload being a communications satellite.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/10/2018 03:28 PM
This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: jpo234 on 07/10/2018 03:37 PM
This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

On the XPrize link they say (https://lunar.xprize.org/press-release/israeli-google-lunar-xprize-team-first-sign-launch-agreement-private-mission):
Quote
SpaceIL has purchased launch services from Spaceflight Industries; an American space company who recently purchased a SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher and will manifest SpaceIL’s spacecraft as a co-lead spot, which will sit in a designated capsule inside the launcher, among a cluster of secondary payloads.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/10/2018 03:38 PM
This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

On the XPrize link they say (https://lunar.xprize.org/press-release/israeli-google-lunar-xprize-team-first-sign-launch-agreement-private-mission):
Quote
Launch Contract for a 2017 Mission, Using a SpaceX Falcon 9 Launcher via Spaceflight Industries

I wouldn't count on that still being accurate.  It might be, but rideshare payloads move around all the time.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/10/2018 03:45 PM
Put any further SpaceIL discussion in this thread for now:
SpaceX : SpaceIL secondary payload : Dec. 2018 : Temporary Thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45982.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 07/11/2018 01:53 AM
Someone in charge of a payload on STP-2 told me that he has been told by the mission that the launch target is now November 30.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 07/14/2018 03:43 PM
Semi-annual-ish manifest archive

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 

The first four posts in this thread are maintained
1 - Current manifest and some links
2 - Past launches
3 - Smoliarm's graphical manifest
4 - links

Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0)
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0)

Sites:
      C=Cape Canaveral Spaceport (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Active for Falcon 9
            KSC LC-39A: Active for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, will need further work for Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for Falcon 9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  -- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44662.0)-- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43199.0)
2018-01-07*2000/-5F91043.1LZuma (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.0)LEO?C-40(48)
2018-01-31  1625/-5F91032.2XGovSat-1 (SES-16) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)GTO4230C-4049
2018-02-06  1545/-5HRNR*LSLFH Demo/Tesla Roadster (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44778.0)ESC~1.2kC-39A(H1)
2018-02-22  0617/-8F91038.2XPAZ & Microsat 2a/2b (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)SSO2.2k+V-4E50
2018-03-06  0033/-5F91044XHispasat 1F (30W-6) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43435.0)GTO6092C-4051
2018-03-30  0714/-7F91041.2XIridium NEXT (Flight 5) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44634.0)PLR9600V-4E52
2018-04-02  1630/-4F91039.2XCRS SpX-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44298.0)LEO~10kC-4053
2018-04-18  1851/-4F91045.1SNASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)HEO325C-4054
2018-05-11  1614/-4F91046SBangabandhu-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)GTO3.7kC-39A55
2018-05-22  1248/-7F91043.2XIridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)PLR~6kV-4E56
2018-06-04  0045/-4F91040.2XSES-12 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43648.0)GTO5384C-4057
2018-06-29  0542/-4F91045.2XCRS SpX-15 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44725.0)LEO~10kC-4058
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2018-07-22  0150/-4F91047STelstar 19 Vantage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43465.0)GTO>5400C-4059
2018-07-25  0439/-7F91048SIridium NEXT (Flight 7) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45725.0)PLR9600V-4E60
2018-08-02  0119/-4F9.SMerah Putih (Telkom 4) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44227.0)GTO>5400C-4061
2018-08-17 NETF9.STelstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43466.0)GTO>5400C-4062
2018-08-end NETF9.SEs'hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)GTO~3kC-40.
2018-09F9.LSAOCOM 1A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44715.0)SSO3100V-4E.
2018F91051?CCtCap DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)LEO.C-39A.
2018-10F9NSIridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-10 (NET)F9N.USAF GPS III-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30912.0)MEO3880C.
2018-10 (NET)F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)SSO~3kV-4E.
2018-11F9R.RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)SSO~1.5kV-4E.
2018-11HNLSLSTP-2 (US Air Force) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)MEO~8k?C-39AH2
2018-11F9.LCRS SpX-16 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45881.0)LEO~10kC.
2018 (NET)F9.?PSN VI (and co-passenger?) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)GTO5000C.
2018 (NET)F9..SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-2019F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort Test (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45279.0)SUB.CN/A
2019-01H..Arabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)GTO~6kC-39AH3
2019?F9..Spaceflight GTO (unconfirmed)GTO.C(70)
2019F9N.CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2019-03F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2019-02F9N.USAF GPS III-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)MEO3880C.
2019F9..GiSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)GTO~6kC.
2019-05F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
2019-Q2F9R.AMOS-17 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44162.0)GTO5500C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44263.0)SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43687.0)GTO~6k+C.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO>5400C(80)
2019-10F9..CRS SpX-19LEO~10kC.
2019-12 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-4MEO3880C(100)
2020-01F9..CRS SpX-20LEO~10kC.
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO>5400C(80)
2020F9..Türksat 5A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44188.0)GTO3500C.
2020F9..CRS2 SpX-21LEO~10kC.
2020-H2F9..AMOS-8 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45324.0)GTO.C.
2020-09HN.AFSPC-52 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45886.0)GTO.C-39A.
2020-11F9..Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44023.0)LEO1440V-4E.
2020F9..CRS2 SpX-22LEO~10kC.
2020F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?550C(82)
2020F9..USAF GPS III-5MEO3880C(100)
2020F9..USAF GPS III-6MEO3880C(100)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C(85)
2021F9..Türksat 5B (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44189.0)GTO4500C.
2021-04F9..SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)LEO2000V-4E.
2021F9R.WorldView Legion (flight 1) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45220.0)LEO...
2021F9R.WorldView Legion (flight 2)LEO...
2022 (NET)BFR..MarsTMI.?.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2021-2024)F9..CRS-2 (4+ flights)LEO.C.
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes / Mission failure may not be SpaceX's fault

NOTES:
(48) Zuma - Reportedly suffered payload separation failure, not confirmed by unknown customer
(H1) FH Demo - Serial Numbers:  Side1:1023.2  Center:1033  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428) update (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1713405#msg1713405)
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release (https://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20160728.html) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/sxm-7.htm)
(82) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1760955#msg1760955)
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 (http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2016/02/10/dankberg-viasat-3-satellites-will-have-more-capacity-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/) SpaceNews 2/10/2016 (http://spacenews.com/viasat-details-1-4-billion-global-ka-band-satellite-broadband-strategy-to-oust-incumbent-players/) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)
(100) GPS III - Three flights (one ordered and two options) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1799142#msg1799142)

Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1655839#msg1655839) - EELV (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43924.0), Phase 1A Summary (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1755716#msg1755716)

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

SpaceX Mission Paperwork (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.0) / Raul's Map (https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1wvgFIPuOmI8da9EIB88tHo9vamo&ll=30.086381422623965%2C-76.01633949920557&z=7)
L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.0)
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0) / Public Core Spotting (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.0)
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
Viewing flights from Vandenberg (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.0) / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral (http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html) / Viewing Flights from KSC/CCAFS (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44657.0)
Upcoming SpaceX Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1690190#msg1690190) / General Industry Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43382)
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42389.0)
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36513.0)
NSF Manifest Threads: U.S. (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0) / Russian (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.0) / Arianespace (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=6114.0) / Japanese (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1181.0) / Chinese (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5060.0) / Indian (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1173.0) / Consolidated (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15134.0)
Commercial Space Index Thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43758.0)

Recent Edits:
June 30  Removed some of the speculative Spaceflight rideshares until we get more info they really exist.
June 29  Updated the next few East Coast launches based on Ben Cooper's site.
June 21  Adding AFSPC-52
May 16  SES-12 moved to NET May 31.  GPS III-01 moved to NET October.
May 9  Moved STP-2 to NET October (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.msg1819720#msg1819720)
May 8  Iridium 7 moved to NET July 9 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.msg1819202#msg1819202).  PSN VI moved to 2019 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.msg1819311#msg1819311)
Apr 18  Telstar 18V in July (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1811750#msg1811750)
Apr 15  Moved STP-2 a little later in the year
Apr 11  Changed Bangabandhu-1 from April 24 to May 4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.msg1809005#msg1809005)
Apr 9  Moved Iridium 6 to May 19 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.msg1808346#msg1808346).  Moved SAOCOM 1A to September (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1808308#msg1808308)
Apr 4  Changed CRS-15 to June 28.


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 07/29/2018 09:02 PM
Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!
============

Added the third graph - corrected per Comga's comment and with minor changes for Telstar & Es'hail
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/03/2018 09:33 PM
Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!

The second "Something's going on here" block for KSC LC39A could be shortened by two months.

We have been told (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.msg1843637#msg1843637) that SpaceX DM-1 should be ready to fly by the end of this month (THIS MONTH!) but will wait until November based on the ISS Visiting Vehicle schedule and other ISS considerations.

edit: Unless busy times at the ISS fall under the "something" rubric despite not being specific to LC-39A.

PS  Nice chart!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Robotbeat on 08/05/2018 03:55 AM
Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!

The second "Something's going on here"...
...I don't understand what you're talking about.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/05/2018 04:17 AM
Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!

The second "Something's going on here"...
...I don't understand what you're talking about.

The FPIP has two blocks in the long gaps between launches from LC-39A, where smoliarm supposes that something must be occupying the launch complex and preventing launches.  They say "Something's going on here..."

On the other hand, while his note is on the LC-39A line, it doesn't have to be specifically about that launch pad, so perhaps it remains valid.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Nehkara on 08/07/2018 07:29 AM
Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

(https://i.imgur.com/hPa29nS.png)

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceX/wiki/launches/manifest

Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: scr00chy on 08/07/2018 08:06 AM
Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

(https://i.imgur.com/hPa29nS.png)

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceX/wiki/launches/manifest

Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

Not sure about the Florida gap (maybe lack of available boosters?) but I suspect the December date for Iridium is based on the assumption that SSO-A will fly after SAOCOM and there is generally at least a month between VAFB launches. But I don't know if we can confidently say which mission will launch after SAOCOM.

I guess one clue is that the most recent FCC license apparently doesn't have the number expected for an Iridium mission, suggesting it's for SSO-A (or maybe Radarsat?).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: niwax on 08/07/2018 08:09 AM
Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

Has there been any indication of initial Starlink deployment? Otherwise they are still holding their scheduled 24 launches for this year. Remember that Es'hail 2 and DM-1 were not moved due to range or rocket availability.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Nehkara on 08/07/2018 08:22 AM
Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

Has there been any indication of initial Starlink deployment? Otherwise they are still holding their scheduled 24 launches for this year. Remember that Es'hail 2 and DM-1 were not moved due to range or rocket availability.

Starlink is a ways out.  End of 2019 or 2020 before initial deployment seems to be the target.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: codav on 08/07/2018 12:52 PM
9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

IMHO, some launches could very well slip into 2019, clearing up the congestion a little bit.

Otherwise, if you look at the launch-to-pad distribution, no pad hosts more than two launches per month if the manifest holds. Both SLC-40 and LC-39A have a quick turnaround time of less than two weeks, SLC-4E requires about three weeks for refurbishment, except SpaceX has improved on that recently and we just don't know about it because the west coast cadence was not high enough yet.

With the recently landed Block 5 boosters, rocket availability isn't a concern anymore. Range availability, ISS schedule and payload readiness now seem to be the prevalent factors of delayed launch dates.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: cscott on 08/07/2018 02:12 PM
There's also some pad work necessary for crew dragon, including the crew access arm.  That could account for the long time between LC39A flights.  And there's a plausible argument that Vandenberg just doesn't turnaround quickly yet.  So it's the gap in LC40 flights which is most puzzling.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/07/2018 02:36 PM
Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

That seems to match most of our current information.  Some of those haven't officially slipped to December yet but it's the most reasonable guess right now.  I'll need to make a pass over our manifest soon and tweak some dates.

There aren't any obvious payloads to launch from the East Coast after Telstar 18V.  I think they may actually be caught up on launches from the Cape after this month.  On the West Coast I think they'll probably end the year a little behind (maybe only one payload?).  It doesn't seem likely that they'll launch more than 3 from Vandenberg the rest of this year.

There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/10/2018 02:44 PM
Further general discussion of the current SpaceX flight rate should move to
   POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942.0)
or
   General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 14) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41018.0)

(In case that wasn't clear, further replies to the last half-dozen posts should move to one of those threads or they may be at risk of disappearing.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/13/2018 11:24 PM
Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

That seems to match most of our current information.  Some of those haven't officially slipped to December yet but it's the most reasonable guess right now.  I'll need to make a pass over our manifest soon and tweak some dates.

There aren't any obvious payloads to launch from the East Coast after Telstar 18V.  I think they may actually be caught up on launches from the Cape after this month.  On the West Coast I think they'll probably end the year a little behind (maybe only one payload?).  It doesn't seem likely that they'll launch more than 3 from Vandenberg the rest of this year.

There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

The surprise will be how far STP-2 slides right, past the end of the year, to March.
Considering DM-1 is supposed to be in December, DM-2 in April, with the Launch Abort test between them, that still seems wedged in, but its what I was told.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Orbiter on 08/14/2018 02:04 AM
Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

That seems to match most of our current information.  Some of those haven't officially slipped to December yet but it's the most reasonable guess right now.  I'll need to make a pass over our manifest soon and tweak some dates.

There aren't any obvious payloads to launch from the East Coast after Telstar 18V.  I think they may actually be caught up on launches from the Cape after this month.  On the West Coast I think they'll probably end the year a little behind (maybe only one payload?).  It doesn't seem likely that they'll launch more than 3 from Vandenberg the rest of this year.

There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

The surprise will be how far STP-2 slides right, past the end of the year, to March.
Considering DM-1 is supposed to be in December, DM-2 in April, with the Launch Abort test between them, that still seems wedged in, but its what I was told.

DM-1 is November, not December.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/14/2018 03:22 AM
(Snip)
There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

The surprise will be how far STP-2 slides right, past the end of the year, to March.
Considering DM-1 is supposed to be in December, DM-2 in April, with the Launch Abort test between them, that still seems wedged in, but its what I was told.

DM-1 is November, not December.
So you say
Doesn’t impact the main comment.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Semmel on 08/14/2018 08:03 AM
Why is the CAA installation taking so long? I dont understand the motivation behind the delays and I would like to understand it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Alexphysics on 08/14/2018 10:06 AM
They're working on the FSS new levels and that takes some time, they need to do that before installation of the CAA.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 08/14/2018 10:52 AM
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
- GPS III-1 seems to depend on DM-1 to fly first
- DM-1 is now November
- According to Ben Cooper no flights between Aug 23rd and end of October at East Coast
- Es'hail Q4 according to @eshailsat, so that would be likely beginning of November (is Ben Cooper is correct), could potentially be close to DM-1, being on 2 different pads..
- IridiumNEXT-8 definitely not September, satellites are not ready yet, according to @IridiumBoss
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 08/17/2018 04:59 AM
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Jakusb on 08/17/2018 09:23 AM
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Sorry that was supposed to have a question mark behind it...
It is more of a strong assumption.
It is either 2019 with prior mission going right towards end of 2018, or it has to jump left in between DM-1 and IFA, with no hardware seen yet...
All focus seems on DM-1, IFA and DM-2 now. Which flow is much more important then STP-2...
Anyway, assumption.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/17/2018 12:29 PM
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Sorry that was supposed to have a question mark behind it...
It is more of a strong assumption.
It is either 2019 with prior mission going right towards end of 2018, or it has to jump left in between DM-1 and IFA, with no hardware seen yet...
All focus seems on DM-1, IFA and DM-2 now. Which flow is much more important then STP-2...
Anyway, assumption.
A question mark is not needed
STP-2 is NET March 2019
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: envy887 on 08/17/2018 12:34 PM
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Sorry that was supposed to have a question mark behind it...
It is more of a strong assumption.
It is either 2019 with prior mission going right towards end of 2018, or it has to jump left in between DM-1 and IFA, with no hardware seen yet...
All focus seems on DM-1, IFA and DM-2 now. Which flow is much more important then STP-2...
Anyway, assumption.
A question mark is not needed
STP-2 is NET March 2019

Is STP-2 supposed to be before or after ArabSat?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/17/2018 12:37 PM
Is STP-2 supposed to be before or after ArabSat?

It was previously scheduled to be before Arabsat 6A.  Now we don't know.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 08/17/2018 01:08 PM
Updated FPIP
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Alexphysics on 08/17/2018 01:20 PM
Updated FPIP

Why is the IFA test on December?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 08/17/2018 01:39 PM
Updated FPIP

Why is the IFA test on December?
Why not?  ;)

It's an example of Disclamer's #1 ("it has a lot of guesswork")
and
the shaded blue stripe (to the right of IFA mark) goes into 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/17/2018 01:40 PM
IFA is around March now.  (I also think Iridium 8 should be towards the end of the year, RCM and Sarah-1 probably don't launch this year.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/17/2018 06:45 PM
A question mark is not needed
STP-2 is NET March 2019

Is STP-2 supposed to be before or after ArabSat?

Sorry.  I have no idea.
My information was solely about preparations for STP-2.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: ChrisGebhardt on 08/17/2018 08:23 PM
IFA is around March now.  (I also think Iridium 8 should be towards the end of the year, RCM and Sarah-1 probably don't launch this year.)

Yup.  Kathy Lueders confirmed a week and a half ago that IFA is "about one month before DM-2."   https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/08/09/nasa-signs-off-on-spacexs-load-and-go-procedure-for-crew-launches/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 08/17/2018 09:03 PM
IFA is around March now.  (I also think Iridium 8 should be towards the end of the year, RCM and Sarah-1 probably don't launch this year.)

Updated FPIP - second try:
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/21/2018 03:26 PM
Payload Vehicle engineer for Telstar 18 on Reddit says there is a 5-10 day delay for the launch, may not be in August. Any confirmation for this?

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/95cte4/telstar_18v_apstar_5c_launch_campaign_thread/e4kgxuw/?context=3 (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/95cte4/telstar_18v_apstar_5c_launch_campaign_thread/e4kgxuw/?context=3)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: OnWithTheShow on 08/21/2018 05:27 PM
Sounds like it's on the rocket side.
:(
A 24 day gap is no way to hit a 30 launch per year pace, especially when it's followed by a 30 day gap.
SpaceX may be remedying Shotwell's forecasted slowdown in 2019 by having a bunch slip in from 2018.
edit: My list now has 35 launches in 2019.  We shall see.

Cross posting from another thread. Manifest on this thread has 14 payloads for 2019. Even if the rest of this years manifest gets delayed until 2019 thats only 26 payloads.... Where are you getting 35?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/22/2018 03:15 AM
Sounds like it's on the rocket side.
 :(
A 24 day gap is no way to hit a 30 launch per year pace, especially when it's followed by a 30 day gap.
SpaceX may be remedying Shotwell's forecasted slowdown in 2019 by having a bunch slip in from 2018.
edit: My list now has 35 launches in 2019.  We shall see.

Cross posting from another thread. Manifest on this thread has 14 payloads for 2019. Even if the rest of this years manifest gets delayed until 2019 thats only 26 payloads.... Where are you getting 35?

You took that from the other version of my post above.
I specifically chose NOT to bring that general discussion of launch pace here.
My list has been compiled since 2004. Most of the sources are from NSF, but may be lost to time.
I prefer to discuss the general launch pace in the General SpaceX discussion or Launch Poll threads.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Comga on 08/22/2018 04:55 PM
Big slip. (Telstar 18 Vantage)Now NET September 9 on the Eastern Range (via L2).

Edit: gongora already has that in the first post.
He’s fast!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: S.Paulissen on 08/23/2018 03:28 AM
Time for another of my periodic requests for a list of payload that are ready and just waiting for a rocket to launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: gongora on 08/23/2018 03:35 AM
Time for another of my periodic requests for a list of payload that are ready and just waiting for a rocket to launch.

If you find a list of payloads that are publicly acknowledged to be ready for launch please let us know.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 09/11/2018 11:35 PM
Updated FPIP:
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: CorvusCorax on 09/12/2018 06:22 AM
Updated FPIP:

As the 3rd quarter is almost over, would it make sense to extend the chart into 2019 by now? (Especially since a number of launches previously on the chart have slipped there?)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: smoliarm on 09/12/2018 09:24 AM
Updated FPIP:

As the 3rd quarter is almost over, would it make sense to extend the chart into 2019 by now? (Especially since a number of launches previously on the chart have slipped there?)

Yes, it makes sense, and I going to extend the graph.
The only problem is - there is a lot of uncertainty with Q1-2019 schedule now.
It has ca. 10 launches from CC and VAFB, and all but two have *wide* placeholders, like "early 2019" or "H1 2019".

Well, hopefully the next graph will be with 1st Q :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Alexphysics on 09/18/2018 03:15 AM
Well this is an interesting recent update on Ben Cooper's site. Es'Hail 2 may happen in early 2019 (gongora may like that kind of precision...), DM-1 moved to December as Elon already said on the event and FH-02 (Arabsat 6A) is still on for November and then CRS-16 and GPS III-1 Nov 27 and Dec 15 respectively. Whatever they plan for the rest of the year in Florida it is quite interesting. Remember they applied for a permit from 39A for a F9 GTO flight sometime in November, no public knowledge of what mission it'll be and I don't want to say it but I'll say it, this looks more and more like a Zuma 2.0

http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch from Cape Canaveral is on November TBD at the earliest.
Upcoming launches include the second flight of the Falcon Heavy from pad 39A carrying the Arabsat
6A communication satellite as early as November. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the next Dragon
resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-16, on November 27 at the earliest, in the afternoon EST if that
day. And a Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the first Block III GPS satellite on December 15 at the
earliest, likely in the morning EST. Other upcoming launches include a Falcon 9 with the first Crew
Dragon capsule on an uncrewed demonstration mission, DM-1 to the ISS, from pad 39A on December
at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the Es'Hail-2 communication satellite for Qatar
as early as late 2018 or early 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
Post by: Nehkara on 09/20/2018 06:48 PM
New update from Launch Photography (http://launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html):

Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch from Cape Canaveral is TBD. Upcoming Falcon 9 launches
include a Falcon 9 with the Es'Hail-2 communication satellite for Qatar. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will
launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-16, on November 27 at 4:19pm EST. The
first stage will land back at Cape Canaveral about eight minutes after launch. The launch time gets
22-25 minutes earlier each day. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the first Block III GPS satellite on
December 15, likely at 9:08am EST. And a Falcon 9 will launch from pad 39A with the first Crew
Dragon capsule on an uncrewed demonstration mission, DM-1 to the ISS, on December at the
earliest, in the middle of the night if that time period. The launch time gets 22-25 minutes earlier each
day.