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General Discussion => Polls Section => Topic started by: Flying Beaver on 12/23/2016 01:29 AM

Title: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Flying Beaver on 12/23/2016 01:29 AM
Simple Question - Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Coastal Ron on 12/23/2016 02:20 AM
I voted "Yay".  I based that on the totality of known activity concerning Falcon Heavy, and that unlike prior years SpaceX is now bumping into the need dates of Falcon Heavy launch customers.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: redliox on 12/23/2016 03:42 AM
I thought we had a similar question poised for FH, then again it might have been for SLS.  In any case, I think the FH will fly sometime this coming year.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/23/2016 06:53 AM
Prior to September's failure Q1 2017 for FH looked likely so I don't think the slip will push it out of 2017.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: vapour_nudge on 12/23/2016 10:12 PM
I've taken the unpopular vote. My expectation is a failure of some sort but that doesn't mean I think it will fly in 2017. If you don't like that....bah humbug
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 12/23/2016 10:50 PM
I wish we had this poll done last year and the year before to see if we were always this optimistic.

Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Barrie on 12/23/2016 11:50 PM
I'm afraid events will conspire to prevent a flight, including 39A being just too damn busy (optimism, of a sort)
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 12/24/2016 12:17 AM
In fact, there was a poll on FH (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36266.0) one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
(Please spare us the real and detailed alternatives.)
That's 88% vs 75% in this poll.
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad and the photos of real FH hardware.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: savuporo on 12/24/2016 12:38 AM
Someone asked Shotwell at a conference this year "I have same questions as in 2015, when is the RTF and when will Falcon Heavy fly?". I think that guy will have the opportunity to ask that same question again.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: sdsds on 12/24/2016 01:57 AM
I chose "yay" but stand by this prediction:
- For most of the year (i.e. through the end of July) there is considerable disagreement about whether FH will fly before year end.

Note how that's a meta-prediction about predictions....
;)
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: sdsds on 12/24/2016 02:01 AM
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad

Just a second. When I voted for August in that other poll, wasn't I implicitly voting for a launch from a completely different launch pad?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: watermod on 12/24/2016 02:04 AM
I'm thinking it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.
So, sad to say, I voted NAY.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: sdsds on 12/24/2016 04:47 AM
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.

After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: meberbs on 12/24/2016 05:52 AM
In fact, there was a poll on FH (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36266.0) one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.

I still stand by my yes vote in this poll. The pad will be ready, hardware is being built, there are a lot more reasons to expect it to launch than past years. I think people are getting into a "delayed before so it will be delayed again" thought process even though the status of readiness has changed. Plus I am sure some are expecting it to be held up by another anomaly investigation, which is more understandable.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Bynaus on 12/24/2016 07:01 AM
I think - like I said in the predictions thread - that half the year will pass without launch of the FH (whereas 39A will be very busy with catching up to the backlog). Then Elon will announce that the Red Dragon launch in 2018 will be the inaugural launch of the FH. So "Nay".
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: MP99 on 12/24/2016 08:11 AM
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.

After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
Falcon Heavy with crossfeed has been superceded by FH FT.

It seems that F9 is about to stop evolving, which is a perfect time to make an FH version of it.

Cheers, Martin
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Mader Levap on 12/24/2016 01:23 PM
Nay. For entire 2017, FH will be always six months in future.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: bolun on 12/24/2016 02:13 PM
Yai. I hope so.  ;)
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 12/24/2016 03:11 PM
In fact, there was a poll on FH (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36266.0) one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.
(snip)

You are so right.  That was TWO years ago.
That was before either of the F9 failures, wasn't it?
Perhaps that explains the increased skepticism.
SpaceX seems less omnipotent, even to fanboys. 
Progress is rapid, but not monotonic.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Arb on 12/24/2016 08:29 PM
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: jongoff on 12/24/2016 09:00 PM
In my 2017 predictions I said that Falcon Heavy would at least make it to the pad, but might not fly. I think it's close to 50/50 on them making it to flight this year, but since this poll didn't allow as much weasling, I'm going to be a contrarian and say Nay. While there may be no obvious reason why they couldn't make FH fly this year, there are still things that could go wrong, and we don't know what their priority is for FH now that F9 FT has started to fly.

But as I said, I think there's a decent chance I may be wrong.

~Jon
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 12/24/2016 09:11 PM
I said yes.

Red Dragon shouldn't be the first FH flight. I expect there would be learnings from that one and maybe one more before they launch Red Dragon. Right to left planning then suggests that the first flight needs to be in 2017 unless Red Dragon slips. And I don't see Elon wanting it to slip.

Metal is being bent for FH as we speak. So yes, I think it will fly in '17.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: sdsds on 12/25/2016 09:23 AM
I don't think Red Dragon can be the first FH launch either. There's a reason for that which I haven't seen explicitly mentioned yet: arrival speed at Mars for a 2018 conjunction class mission. Keeping that low gives Dragon the best chance of successfully reaching the surface. And the launch window for low speed Mars approach is narrow.

SpaceX does amazing things, yes. But launching the first-ever vehicle of a particular type within a specific 10 day window? Hmm, that's asking a lot even of them!

[EDIT: The plot is from https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19980210557.pdf.]
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: high road on 12/26/2016 12:23 PM
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.

I voted yes. They'll do a test flight this year. First times always run into unforeseen issues, so assuming they've become more careful since september, they won't launch commercially this year until all of those issues are adressed. But the word was 'fly', not 'paid flight'.

Even if they do put a payload on a hardly tested FH, there will be no red dragon before 2022. They still have to relaunch a booster and get Dragon v2 flying. Things take time.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Kansan52 on 01/19/2017 06:14 PM
Not until SLC-40 is operational. They will not risk the only East coast operational launch site for this test.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: alang on 01/22/2017 02:00 PM
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting.
Too many variables and if further launch failures hit the SpaceX manifest then I can see it being cancelled.
My bet is for a launch at either the end of 2017 or Q1 2018.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Zed_Noir on 01/22/2017 08:46 PM
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting.
...

The Falcon Heavy as currently configured can lift about twice as much payload mass to LEO & GTO than the Delta IV Heavy at less than a third of the cost. Even in the fully expendable mode. So the USAF will be interested. Heck, ULA is probably hoping for the Falcon Heavy to enter service sooner so they can walk away from SLC-6 and LC-37B along with the retirement of the Delta IV Heavy.

IMO the Falcon Heavy will fly shortly after the first Falcon 9 Block 5.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: MATTBLAK on 01/22/2017 08:55 PM
...And me... ;)
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: QuantumG on 01/29/2017 10:50 PM
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: moreno7798 on 01/30/2017 02:10 AM
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Zed_Noir on 01/30/2017 03:08 AM
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?

The SpaceX launch manifest on their website just list flights alphabetically not which one is next.

Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.

ARABSAT (ARABSAT 6A)
FALCON HEAVY DEMO
INMARSAT
INTELSAT
US AIR FORCE (STP-2)
VIASAT
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: ccdengr on 01/30/2017 03:10 AM
VIASAT
I thought Viasat gave up waiting and jumped to Arianespace... https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/02/15/viasat-trades-in-falcon-heavy-launch-for-ariane-5/
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 01/30/2017 06:01 AM
VIASAT
I thought Viasat gave up waiting and jumped to Arianespace... https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/02/15/viasat-trades-in-falcon-heavy-launch-for-ariane-5/

They keep the order for a future launch around 2020-ish if I remember correctly.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: sdsds on 01/30/2017 06:30 AM
Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.

I think this underlines a subtle distinction between the FH Demo flight and RD. FH Demo is ... actually for a particular customer. RD will be purely an internally motivated flight.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: high road on 01/30/2017 07:27 AM
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.

Well, IIRC it was 'end of the year' before CRS-7, 'next year' for four years before that, and 'two years' before that. The trend seems to be good, anyway.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/07/2017 01:22 PM
Actual hardware! 2017 is looking like the year FH finally flies.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: AncientU on 02/07/2017 02:05 PM
Maybe this is the year that everyone will have to choose an alternate vehicle to mock SpaceX's overly-optimistic schedules... may I suggest the BFR?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: high road on 02/09/2017 11:39 AM
Straigth to BFS? What about Crew Dragon and Red Dragon?

No need to limit 'vehicle' to 'launch vehicle'  ::)
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: QuantumG on 02/09/2017 09:24 PM
Actual hardware is a good sign, but I still think we're a year or two away. Hopefully only a year, then Red Dragon in 2018 is a real possibility.

Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/08/2017 09:53 PM
SpaceX are sticking to 2017, at least for now:

SpaceX are still saying FH demo flight this year:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Falcon Heavy to fly this year #satshow

https://twitter.com/chenry_sn/status/839590030511386625 (https://twitter.com/chenry_sn/status/839590030511386625)
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Danderman on 03/09/2017 02:49 AM

IMO the Falcon Heavy will fly shortly after the first Falcon 9 Block 5.


Wait.

Does this mean that FH will have to be re-designed to be compatible with F9B5?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Jim on 03/09/2017 02:59 AM

Does this mean that FH will have to be re-designed to be compatible with F9B5?


???  What redesign?  F9FT to F9B5 is iPhone 6 to 6s and not 5 to 6.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 03/09/2017 03:17 AM
Actual hardware is a good sign, but I still think we're a year or two away. Hopefully only a year, then Red Dragon in 2018 is a real possibility.



They slipped that I think. But if they want the tourist cash in '18 they really need to fly FH this year. And crew Dragon.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: rockets4life97 on 04/09/2017 03:03 PM
A side booster on the test stand! It is looking like 2017 could be a real possibility.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: DatUser14 on 04/09/2017 06:46 PM
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.
Red Dragon is already 2020.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: CraigLieb on 09/27/2017 02:43 PM
Bump
With Koreasat scheduled for late October on 39A and 60 days needed for renovations at 39A for Heavy, it seems less likely 2017 will happen. Would a new poll be in order?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: rockets4life97 on 09/27/2017 07:05 PM
Bump
With Koreasat scheduled for late October on 39A and 60 days needed for renovations at 39A for Heavy, it seems less likely 2017 will happen. Would a new poll be in order?

Probably worth waiting until the first week of December to start a new poll for 2018 (if it comes to that as seems likely now).
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: guckyfan on 10/02/2017 10:51 AM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 10/25/2017 07:49 PM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.

How about now?
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: mantlo on 10/25/2017 08:21 PM
correct me if i am wrong i but it was reported that red dragon was a no go
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: envy887 on 10/26/2017 08:31 PM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.

How about now?

I still think they get FH vertical and test fired at least once in 2017. A launch will depend on how many test fires they need.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: guckyfan on 10/30/2017 05:35 AM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.

How about now?

No change. I still don't count it out.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: envy887 on 10/30/2017 07:54 PM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.

How about now?

No change. I still don't count it out.

With 4/6 of the holddowns installed on the TEL and all the Heavy cores in the barn, it's still possible.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 10/30/2017 08:02 PM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.

How about now?

No change. I still don't count it out.

With 4/6 of the holddowns installed on the TEL and all the Heavy cores in the barn, it's still possible.

Photos from the rollout for KoreaSat-5 show more holddowns, and suggest that they are all installed.
That said, I would change my vote from yes to no.
While I am not as pessimistic as some, like QG, Heavy now seems much less than a year away. 
Highly likely for early 2018, IMO
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: envy887 on 10/31/2017 02:41 PM
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.

How about now?

No change. I still don't count it out.

With 4/6 of the holddowns installed on the TEL and all the Heavy cores in the barn, it's still possible.

Photos from the rollout for KoreaSat-5 show more holddowns, and suggest that they are all installed.
That said, I would change my vote from yes to no.
While I am not as pessimistic as some, like QG, Heavy now seems much less than a year away. 
Highly likely for early 2018, IMO

I looked at the rollout video and think 2 holddowns are still missing. Still doable if the static fire(s) go well, I think they at least get it vertical and fired this year.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: envy887 on 11/28/2017 08:48 PM
Sounds like SpaceX is verifying that FH will slip to 2018.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Dalhousie on 11/30/2017 12:22 AM
So 75% of voters in the poll backed the wrong horse.  ;D
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Zed_Noir on 11/30/2017 12:46 PM
So 75% of voters in the poll backed the wrong horse.  ;D

I blame Zuma or whatever it is for the FH launch delay.  :P
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: the_other_Doug on 11/30/2017 04:13 PM
So 75% of voters in the poll backed the wrong horse.  ;D

Which just goes to show that polls of technically uninformed people do not and cannot settle the truth of anything, much less make good predictions in repeatable experiments.

I've seen too many people, even on this forum, say things like "Well, a majority of the people posting in this thread agree that the Uru Forces of the Mighty Thor actually propel rockets into space, so that means we're all right and you people who quote this 'physics' myth are wrong."  Not to that degree, of course -- I exaggerate for effect.

The scientific method doesn't care about the majority's opinion.  Just about repeatable predictions that are consistently and correctly borne out, and which describe, within acceptable limits, how and why the things we see have the properties they display to us.  Majorities that disagree are irrelevant.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: catdlr on 11/30/2017 10:01 PM
Falcon Heavy Debut Slips To 2018

http://aviationweek.com/space/falcon-heavy-debut-slips-2018

https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/30/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-delayed-2018

Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: vapour_nudge on 11/30/2017 10:13 PM
So 75% of voters in the poll backed the wrong horse.  ;D

Which just goes to show that polls of technically uninformed people do not and cannot settle the truth of anything, much less make good predictions in repeatable experiments.

I've seen too many people, even on this forum, say things like "Well, a majority of the people posting in this thread agree that the Uru Forces of the Mighty Thor actually propel rockets into space, so that means we're all right and you people who quote this 'physics' myth are wrong."  Not to that degree, of course -- I exaggerate for effect.

The scientific method doesn't care about the majority's opinion.  Just about repeatable predictions that are consistently and correctly borne out, and which describe, within acceptable limits, how and why the things we see have the properties they display to us.  Majorities that disagree are irrelevant.
Doug, I voted no but that was mainly a gut feel based on watching the industry for the last 30 years. Iíve got used to hearing about man reaching Mars within ten years and this company promising that. I find I fall into a wait and see approach and my gut feel was next year. I donít consider myself a fan boy so that helps. I expect the launch to fail too and hope it wonít. Not really technical but I voted no
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/01/2017 01:57 PM
As an old launch guy I realize one thing. And that is if you do not push for the aspirational date you won't launch at all.

This is why you see Musk push aspirational dates. NASA push aspirational dates. Everyone in the launch business pushes aspirational dates and then accepts what they are then able to get. That is because launch is a tremendous technical struggle to get everything working for that only a few minutes flight. There will always be technical glitches to overcome.

I voted Yes. Because sometimes the aspirational or close to it is achieved. But in this case the challenges caught up to them. And not even ones for FH but for a regular launch that caused scheduling delays for FH tasks.
Title: Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Post by: Poole Amateur on 12/01/2017 02:04 PM
I voted yes, but not too disappointed. I am really hoping for an early Xmas present to see it on the pad and static fired.  ;D