NASASpaceFlight.com Forum

NASA Shuttle Specific Sections => Atlantis (Post STS-135, T&R) => Topic started by: rdale on 09/01/2006 03:23 am

Title: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/01/2006 03:23 am
For the new round... As I mentioned in the past thread, there's a good shot at storms Sun-Mon and the PAFB forecasters have now come onboard with that prediction.

They however are calling for great weather next Wednesday (15% chance of a storm) but quite frankly I don't see why. To me it appears the pattern of widespread showers and storms will continue through much of next week. NWS has a 35% chance of storms, and the medium-range branch says above normal precip expected the 6th - 10th.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Zachstar on 09/01/2006 03:36 am
:(  Well it looks like its going to be another "Interesting" bit of launch days.

I don't know tho somthing tells me they are going to bend just a little bit to get this shuttle off the pad.

Please keep us updated...
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/01/2006 03:45 am
I certainly don't have a picture perfect memory, but I don't recall them launching with storms in the area and don't see any way at all they ever would bend that one.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: astrobrian on 09/01/2006 03:55 am
Agreed that is just not gonna happen. You saw what they did to make sure that Atlantis was ok even though not directly hit by the strike on the pad. They are sure going to avoid when they can any circumstance that would lead to an Apollo 12 style direct hit.  Look at how they followed the weather rules for STS121, no bending even when to some it seemed crazy looking at the sky.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Avron on 09/01/2006 04:09 am
One good thing about the slip is the time is close to midday, so I think the chances of TS would be lower, it nomally is later in the afternoon .. but I would love to know the rate of TS in the area  vs time of day in early Sept..  but I dont know how all this latest storm activity will impact that rate.. however it may be a mute point if we are talking ongoing storm activity..
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: astrobrian on 09/01/2006 04:16 am
My guess (and hope) is that the atmosphere there may be getting pretty tapped out of moisture.( just my hunch - NOT a weatherman )

Texas is similiar in that if there will be any out of nowhere showers they tend to pop up later in the day with the daytime heating.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/01/2006 04:34 am
"the atmosphere there may be getting pretty tapped out of moisture"

That could happen - if KSC wasn't surrounded by an ocean and Gulf.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: shuttlefan on 09/01/2006 01:58 pm
Quote
rdale - 31/8/2006  11:21 PM

"the atmosphere there may be getting pretty tapped out of moisture"

That could happen - if KSC wasn't surrounded by an ocean and Gulf.

Again, it is Florida in mid-afternoon, in early-September. I think all the folks, on this site who are involved down there, would agree with my prediction from way up here in Saskatchewan, Canada! ;)
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/01/2006 02:24 pm
Actually it's just after lunch as opposed to mid-afternoon, which (if you are referring to "pop-up storms") means a GREAT deal of difference.

Looking at the data this morning doesn't change my thinking much. Should actually sneak in some dry air Mon/Tue but the winds start blowing out of the SW by Wednesday, increasing the coverage of those afternoon storms.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Austin on 09/01/2006 02:44 pm
With 5 days still to go, we're too far out for any accurate forcast with Florida's changeable weather.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/01/2006 03:13 pm
We all understand that, however that doesn't mean we (and the NWS / USAF forecasters) put our heads in the sand until launch day. If you look at the last thread, storms were in the outlook at 6 days out (for Sunday's launch attempt) and a storm in the area that afternoon would have prevented launch. My forecast from the week before was that Monday would be fine - and it was fine.

So forecasting (even in Florida) can be done. Let's not clutter this thread with "it will have to be a realtime call" and "it is [insert month here] in Florida, storms will form" or "you know what we say around [insert your location here, everyone says it is just for them] -- just wait 15 minutes and it will change."
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Austin on 09/01/2006 04:27 pm
Quote
rdale - 1/9/2006  8:00 AM


So forecasting (even in Florida) can be done.

No doubt.  My comment was intended more for folks who start getting worried about the prospect of a launch because of the weather outlook with days to go.  

You seem to have a good eye for forecasting, Rob.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Avron on 09/01/2006 04:59 pm
Quote
Austin - 1/9/2006  12:14 PM

Quote
rdale - 1/9/2006  8:00 AM


So forecasting (even in Florida) can be done.

No doubt.  My comment was intended more for folks who start getting worried about the prospect of a launch because of the weather outlook with days to go.  

You seem to have a good eye for forecasting, Rob.


May want to have at look at the man's Website...
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/01/2006 05:43 pm
Quote
Austin - 1/9/2006  12:14 PM

No doubt.  My comment was intended more for folks who start getting worried about the prospect of a launch because of the weather outlook with days to go.  


Gotcha - and as I reread my post it seemed to be harshly directed at you and that was not my intent... As we know the other thread got cluttered up with a bunch of junk and I wanted to nip this one in the bud by addressing all the things that filled up that thread ;>
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Austin on 09/01/2006 07:56 pm
No offense taken, Rob!   : )

Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/03/2006 01:07 pm
Nothing different in the outlook, PAFB forecasters now say there is a high chance of storms Wednesday afternoon as opposed to their earlier dry forecast. Basically the pattern is going to be the same through Thursday, so watch the radar any day and that'll give you a good idea of what launch day will look like. I'm optimistic that the early launch time will be our friend, but not comfortably optimistic...
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: DaveS on 09/03/2006 02:06 pm
rdale: Here's the official L-3 days weather forecast: https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
How much credibility do you place into it?
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: astrobrian on 09/03/2006 04:36 pm
20% chance of a delay? that pretty good!  thanks for the post :)
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/03/2006 04:45 pm
I turned off my weather system so I could get the Flight Simulator X beta last night (9GB download!) and forgot to turn it back on before leaving for church this morning, so I didn't get the very latest data. But in general I still think that almost every day over the next 4 will be close to identical.

Looking right now, I'm pretty sure the line of showers rapidly forming west of the runway and driftint east would be a no-go if today were launchday.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: jacqmans on 09/04/2006 09:58 pm
STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast

Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 4 September 2006/1100Z (0700 EDT)
Valid: 6 September 2006 1623 - 1633Z (1223 - 1233 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL

Synoptic Discussion:
Currently, easterly mid-level flow is in place over Central Florida as the
high pressure ridge that was over South Florida yesterday migrates north.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop just to the west of KSC today along
the afternoon sea breeze, and the western portion of KSC may be affected
by this weather during the early afternoon, before the sea breeze
progresses inland.

Tuesday, the ridge will migrate back to the south, the sea breeze will
develop along the east coast of Central Florida, and mid-level westerly
flow will cause thunderstorms to remain pinned along the east coast,
affecting KSC throughout the afternoon.

On Wednesday, weather is favorable for launch due to a dryer atmosphere
and the launch window occurring before afternoon thunderstorms develop.

Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility
(SLF). The probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch increases
slightly the following two days due to a frontal boundary approaching
Central Florida from the northwest. This boundary with the strong upper
level winds from the west may cause anvil clouds from thunderstorms in the
Gulf of Mexico and along the west coast of Florida to advect east toward
KSC.

Clouds   Coverage        Bases (feet)   Tops (feet)

Cumulus  3/8 Scattered   3,000          6,000
Cirrus   4/8 Scattered   25,000         26,000

Weather: None.
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 230 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperature: 85 F   RH: 65%   Dewpoint: 72 F

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
  of the SLF.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds; anvils from thunderstorms over the
  Gulf of Mexico and West Florida.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds; anvils from thunderstorms over the
  Gulf of Mexico and West Florida.

Sunrise: 6 / 0703 EDT   Sunset: 6 / 1938 EDT
         7 / 0704 EDT           7 / 1937 EDT
         8 / 0704 EDT           8 / 1936 EDT

Moonrise: 5 / 1830 EDT   Moonset: 6 / 0534 EDT   Illumination: 5-6 Sept. 96%
          6 / 1909 EDT            7 / 0644 EDT                 6-7 Sept. 99%
          7 / 1945 EDT            8 / 0754 EDT                 7-8 Sept. 100%

Next forecast will be issued: 5 September 2006, 0700 EDT
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Avron on 09/04/2006 10:33 pm
Rob

Do you think "Six" will have any impact at KSC?
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/04/2006 10:55 pm
Certainly not for launch, and odds are very low that a system that far north already would not continue a swing north well before affecting the CONUS.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/05/2006 03:08 pm
Quote
nathan.moeller - 5/9/2006  10:28 AM

As long as they dodge the hail they'll be okay for RSS retract.

There's no threat of hail today.

New computer spins up a tropical disturbance over the Keys today which brings copious showers and storms late tonight and most of Wed for KSC. I'm ignoring that.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rosbif73 on 09/05/2006 03:19 pm
I see TD Six has just been upgraded to TS Florence. The official NHC forecast shows it reaching hurricane status by Friday and probably turning northwards.

I'm no expert, but I think it's fair to say that even if it does take a more southward track towards Florida, it wouldn't get there before the end of the launch window (and it would be well out of the way before a landing back at KSC). Rob?
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/05/2006 04:45 pm
Correct. As a cane it is more likely to curve north, if it stays weak it could stay in the westerlies but neither case has an impact on launch or landing.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Norm Hartnett on 09/06/2006 01:29 am
Some links

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/weather/weather.html

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/rrg2.pl?encoder/wx.rm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KTTS.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/smgwx.htm
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: jacqmans on 09/06/2006 09:17 pm
STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast

Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 6 September 2006/1130Z (0730 EDT)
Valid: 7 September 2006 1558 - 1610Z (1158 - 1210 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL

Synoptic Discussion:
Today, the Bermuda high ridge is located over South Florida, and a frontal
boundary is moving into the panhandle of Florida. West-southwest flow is
prevalent over Central Florida, and afternoon thunderstorm will develop in
Central Florida and migrate toward the east coast. This pattern continues
through the next 2 days. Fortunately, the launch time Thursday occurs before
thunderstorms will affect Kennedy Space Center (KSC). There is potential the
sea breeze will develop near launch time, causing concern for cumulus clouds
within 10NM of complex 39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle
Landing Facility. Also, the west coast of Florida will have a potential for
morning thunderstorms, and anvils from storms will advect toward the east
coast of Florida.

Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF),
and anvils from thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida.

The weather forecast is similar for a 24-hour delay, and for the 48-hour
delay, the probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch decreases as the
front weakens and high pressure begins to build back into the area.

Clouds       Coverage       Bases (feet)  Tops (feet)
Cumulus      3/8 Scattered  3,000         6,000
Altostratus  2/8 Scattered  10,000        12,000
Cirrus       4/8 Scattered  25,000        26,000

Weather: None
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 120 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperature: 85 F   RH: 70%   Dewpoint: 74 F

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
  of the SLF, anvil clouds.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
  of the SLF, anvil clouds.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Low cloud ceiling.

Sunrise: 7 / 0704 EDT   Sunset: 7 / 1937 EDT
         8 / 0704 EDT           8 / 1936 EDT
         9 / 0705 EDT           9 / 1935 EDT

Moonrise: 6 / 1909 EDT  Moonset: 7 / 0644 EDT  Illumination: 6-7 Sept. 99%
          7 / 1945 EDT           8 / 0754 EDT                7-8 Sept. 100%
          8 / 2020 EDT           9 / 0902 EDT                8-9 Sept. 97%

Next forecast will be issued: 7 September 2006, 0700 EDT
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/08/2006 04:31 am
New landing forecast from NWS SMG mets looking good... Slight chance of a shower at KSC, with a chance of storms at Zaragoza and Istres but Moron perfect.

Once around - White Sands has a chance of storms (I understand it's been unusable lately anyways due to a muddy runway?) but Edwards will be all quiet.

I concur and don't see weather being a show-stopper.



Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: leclaire on 09/08/2006 05:17 am
The large mass of storms over central Florida are moving out into the Atlantic.  Hopefully nothing new forms in the Gulf betwen now and launch.  If it does, it could move over the Cape.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USFL0066?name=southeastussatellite_large_animated

LL
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: shuttlefan on 09/08/2006 05:27 am
Quote
leclaire - 8/9/2006  12:04 AM

The large mass of storms over central Florida are moving out into the Atlantic.  Hopefully nothing new forms in the Gulf betwen now and launch.  If it does, it could move over the Cape.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USFL0066?name=southeastussatellite_large_animated

LL

Will the storms be out of the way in order for tanking to begin on time, if approved by the MMT.
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: leclaire on 09/08/2006 05:35 am
Quote
shuttlefan - 8/9/2006  12:14 AM

Quote
leclaire - 8/9/2006  12:04 AM

The large mass of storms over central Florida are moving out into the Atlantic.  Hopefully nothing new forms in the Gulf betwen now and launch.  If it does, it could move over the Cape.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USFL0066?name=southeastussatellite_large_animated

LL

Will the storms be out of the way in order for tanking to begin on time, if approved by the MMT.

Looks like it's all clear around the Cape right now. Shouldn't be any problems.
LL
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/08/2006 01:07 pm
All quiet at KSC, but line of storms off the west coast and their anvils are headed that way... I don't think things will be thick enough to cause a problem, and there clearly won't be any electrical activity connected to them by the time they reach across the peninsula.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/09/2006 02:30 am
Nada going on tonight, cloudy skies and dry weather expected. A shower could pop tomorow but nothing during the window.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/09/2006 07:22 am
Quote
rdale - 8/9/2006  10:17 PM

Nada going on tonight, cloudy skies and dry weather expected. A shower could pop tomorow but nothing during the window.
Last night's SMG forecast talks about a chance of a ceiling at 2000 feet for Saturday's launch time (along with a chance of rain within 20 nmi of the SLF):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0

Quote
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
1000 PM CDT FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 08 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      1514Z
                DATE:      09/09/06

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT020 SCT100 SCT250           7              03005P08
      CHC BKN020 SHRA WI 20 NM

.
.
.
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE
 ZZA ... TS
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... TS

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 09/0914Z

Update in about two hours...
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/09/2006 09:29 am
Latest SMG forecast shows a slightly improved RTLS forecast for KSC; no chance of a broken layer at 2000 feet and only a slight chance of showers within 20 nmi of the SLF:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0

Quote
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
414 AM CDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 09 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      1514Z
                DATE:      09/09/06

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT020 SCT100 SCT250           7              03007P10
      SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20 NM
.
.
.
 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... PRECIP
 NOR ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 ZZA ... TS
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... TS
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/09/2006 09:34 am
The launch day weather forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron is out; no changes other than the fact that tanking is complete and no longer applicable:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/09/2006 12:11 pm
Someone in the news thread asked if humidity is an issue at launch - only for very cold temperatures. High humidity with warm temps is no issue, and in any case I dont't think there's any possibility of it being 100% at launch time.

http://www-pao.ksc.nasa.gov/kscpao/nasafact/pdf/Weather-2006.pdf
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/09/2006 12:14 pm
Pretty big storm about 70mi NE of KSC (48,000ft high) but moving away. Other showers about 40E but also moving east.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/09/2006 12:53 pm
Quote
rdale - 9/9/2006  8:01 AM

Pretty big storm about 70mi NE of KSC (48,000ft high) but moving away. Other showers about 40E but also moving east.
I was wondering about the booster recovery area, but PAO noted that's about 140 mi NE of KSC.  He also said the weather isn't great out there, but it might be an interesting view from the booster cameras on the way down...
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/09/2006 01:11 pm
Big swells from the tropical storm might impact them coming back tomorrow...
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Radioheaded on 09/09/2006 01:41 pm
PAO mentioned seas @ 1-2 ft around SRB recovery area.  Is it possible that rough seas/bad weather in general around recovery ships could scrub a launch? (might be a stupid question :( if so, sorry)


James
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/09/2006 01:49 pm
Seas today won't be an issue - it's the trip back that I'd be concerned about. I'm not sure about that, I would doubt they would cancel a launch for something like that (maybe it's an issue that would postpone during a "regular" mission, but certainly not at the end of a window with nothing available for a long time...)
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Radioheaded on 09/09/2006 01:52 pm
thanks rdale. Always find your weather insight fascinating ( Im returning to school to study meteorology myself)
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Joffan on 09/14/2006 11:37 pm
The weather forecast for next week around the landing (Wednesday?) looks pretty settled, just the odd afternoon thunderstorm.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/16/2006 07:44 pm
I dunno about Wednesday morning...the weather pattern looks more autumnal and less summer-like with cold fronts sweeping across the country.  The next cold front is forecast to be through here in Atlanta on Tuesday, so it remains to be seen where it will be Wednesday morning for landing attempts.  (The weather behind the the last front has been gorgeous.)
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Joffan on 09/16/2006 08:46 pm
Yes, things have changed a bit since I posted... but Accuweather for Titusville FL still has the break in the weather on Thursday rather than Wednesday.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: rdale on 09/16/2006 09:43 pm
Put absolutely no faith in the forecast from AccuWeather or any other automated system, they are completely computerized with no human interaction. That might work in the 24hr timeframe, but clearly not days out. Use the links here to the PAFB forecast center for their weekly planner.
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: Joffan on 09/17/2006 12:23 am
Absolutely - I don't have any particular faith in the auto forecasts, but the previous observation was for a period of settled weather when I would expect a better match with detailed forecasts. Now that the week has a definte change in it I agree that I couldn't use anything from that source until the day before. By the same token, the more expert forecasts for a changeable period are probably only useful up to about 48 hours out - maybe 72, certainly not more.
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/17/2006 02:12 pm
Haven't looked through all the weather products, but here's SMG's CONUS forecast this morning; source:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg1.html

The predictions for both KSC opportunities shows a chance of precipitation inside 30 nmi of the SLF and a chance of low ceiling...
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/17/2006 02:15 pm
FWIW, the forecast for Thursday and Friday looks pretty nice:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg2.html
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/18/2006 01:06 pm
SMG has released their latest forecasts.  They look about the same as yesterday's forecasts -- I didn't note yesterday the forecast potential for high crosswinds...
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: mkirk on 09/19/2006 12:40 am
Here is the latest forecast for Wednesday.  Trend is less than favorable with ceiling, crosswind, and showers all potential show stoppers for KSC.  Plan so far is to target KSC only for Wednesday...



NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX               77058
500 PM CDT MONDAY SEPTEMBER 18 2006

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - WEDNESDAY 09/20/06

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 FIRST OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW020 SCT050 BKN100           7              24010P15
      CHC TSRA WI 30 NM CHC BKN050

 SECOND OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW020 SCT050 BKN100           7              24010P15
      CHC TSRA WI 30 NM CHC BKN050

 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  FEW250                         7              23012P18


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  SCT050 SCT100 BKN250           7              15007P10


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/TS/XWIND
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 19/0600Z


Mark Kirkman
Title: Re: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/19/2006 01:05 am
Seems like this cold front that's now reaching us here in Atlanta is the big player -- at least in terms of its timing.  The weather behind the front is forecast to be much better.
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: mkirk on 09/19/2006 01:16 pm
Here is this mornings update from SMG, no improvement for Wednesday!!!




NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX               77058
700 AM CDT TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 19 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115

EXPECTED LANDING DATE:      09/20/06
                 TIME:      0958Z
                 SITE:      KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - WEDNESDAY 09/20/06

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 FIRST OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW020 SCT050 BKN100           7              25010P15
      CHC TSRA WI 30 NM CHC BKN050

 SECOND OPPORTUNITY
 KSC  FEW020 SCT050 BKN100           7              27010P15
      CHC TSRA WI 30 NM CHC BKN050

 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  FEW250                         7              23012P18


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  SCT050 SCT120 BKN250           7              15007P10


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/TS/XWIND
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - THURSDAY 09/21/06

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030                         7              35004P07


 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  FEW250                         7              24005P08


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  SCT040 BKN080 OVC150           7              22007P10
      CHC SHRA WI 30 NM

 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... PRECIP

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 19/2200Z

 KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
       ICAO ID IS KTTS
 EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
       ICAO ID IS KEDW
 NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
       ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)

GARNER/HOOD/ORAM


Mark Kirkman
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: psloss on 09/19/2006 01:30 pm
Quote
mkirk - 19/9/2006  9:03 AM

Here is this mornings update from SMG, no improvement for Wednesday!!!
Steve Stich said in the mission status briefing that the current thinking was that the front would be passing through KSC in between the first and second opportunities tomorrow...perhaps not soon enough to clear the 2nd rev.
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: mkirk on 09/19/2006 02:19 pm
Quote
psloss - 19/9/2006  8:17 AM

Quote
mkirk - 19/9/2006  9:03 AM

Here is this mornings update from SMG, no improvement for Wednesday!!!
Steve Stich said in the mission status briefing that the current thinking was that the front would be passing through KSC in between the first and second opportunities tomorrow...perhaps not soon enough to clear the 2nd rev.

We also change from the night crosswind limits to the day limits (12 verses 15) from the first KSC rev to the second rev...that may help as long as the ceiling and storms get out of the way.

Mark Kirkman
Title: RE: Weather Forecast (2)
Post by: mkirk on 09/19/2006 10:57 pm
If imaging takes us into Thursday/Friday at least all 3 CONUS sites look good.


NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX               77058
200 PM CDT TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 19 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115

EXPECTED LANDING DATE:      09/21/06
                 TIME:      1021Z
                 SITE:      KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - THURSDAY 09/21/06

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  FEW020                         7              35004P07


 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  FEW250                         7              24005P08


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  FEW050 SCT100                  7              22007P10


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - FRIDAY 09/22/06

 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  FEW020                         7              05003P04


 EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
 EDW  SKC                            7              23014P22


 NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
 NOR  FEW040 SCT250                  7              05003P05


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... NONE
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 20/0400Z


Mark Kirkman