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Due to weather concerns, Shuttle launch postponed till Monday about 4:07 pm
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Source please?
EDIT: Nevermind. It's as expected.
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no way....
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Press is getting it right now.
Something to do with the lightening strike yesterday.
Ross.
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Another reason for postponment is the launch team needs more time to see if there was any damage from lightening strike near shuttle yesterday.
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ras391 - 26/8/2006 1:15 PM
Due to weather concerns, Shuttle launch postponed till Monday about 4:07 pm
go figure! :)
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ras391 - 26/8/2006 11:15 AM
Due to weather concerns, Shuttle launch postponed till Monday about 4:07 pm
Okay, so much for my optimism.
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It is now 2:19 Eastern Time. Is the postponement confirmed? No other source is saying this.
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punkboi - 26/8/2006 1:19 PM
Source please?
EDIT: Nevermind. It's as expected.
ras391 - 26/8/2006 1:15 PM
Due to weather concerns, Shuttle launch postponed till Monday about 4:07 pm
are you f****** kidding me!!!! it's sts-8 all over again! wow! :o
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ras391 - 26/8/2006 11:15 AM Due to weather concerns, Shuttle launch postponed till Monday about 4:07 pm
The launch window opens at 4:04:14 PM EDT on Monday
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Info direct from KSC.
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I'm not surprised by that decision. It's a good call, IMO, since they have to do some serious intensive checks and diagnostics of all the circuits and electronics around the pad the Shuttle stack/orbiter. Lightning strikes anywhere near sophisticated electronics (even via direct-to-ground attractors) shouldn't be taken lightly.
It doesn't hurt to have the weather situation improve with the delay, as well.
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OK, now its showing up. Thanks for the heads-up.
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MKremer - 26/8/2006 11:34 AM I'm not surprised by that decision. It's a good call, IMO, since they have to do some serious intensive checks and diagnostics of all the circuits and electronics around the pad the Shuttle stack/orbiter. Lightning strikes anywhere near sophisticated electronics (even via direct-to-ground attractors) shouldn't be taken lightly. It doesn't hurt to have the weather situation improve with the delay, as well.
Yea, if Atlantis launched tomorrow...I probably would've missed it lifting off since I would've just got back from Church. Good thing it's launching on Monday. I don't work on Mondays.
And sorry for mixing science and religion there... ;)
EDIT: CNN.com has a NEWS ALERT banner on top mentioning the delay
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NASA briefing in 15 minutes
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"OK, punkboi may not be able to watch the launch; we'll need to reschedule for Monday. Find some credible excuse we can use to do that." ;)
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One word describes this F$%^$#@$%#^$$%#$%#$$%&$%^$&*#$%^#%^ :(
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punkboi - 26/8/2006 1:40 PM
MKremer - 26/8/2006 11:34 AM I'm not surprised by that decision. It's a good call, IMO, since they have to do some serious intensive checks and diagnostics of all the circuits and electronics around the pad the Shuttle stack/orbiter. Lightning strikes anywhere near sophisticated electronics (even via direct-to-ground attractors) shouldn't be taken lightly. It doesn't hurt to have the weather situation improve with the delay, as well.
Yea, if Atlantis launched tomorrow...I probably would've missed it lifting off since I would've just got back from Church. Good thing it's launching on Monday. I don't work on Mondays.
And sorry for mixing science and religion there... ;)
EDIT: CNN.com has a NEWS ALERT banner on top mentioning the delay
shoot, i get out of school at 11:00am, so i'm STILL not gonna miss it! too bad insideKSC's temporarily off-line. that's my downloads headquarters...:P hopefully we'll see better conditions on monday...
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 11:46 AM
One word describes this F$%^$#@$%#^$$%#$%#$$%&$%^$&*#$%^#%^ :(
Brian -- I understand how you feel. But if that's gonna be your *ss strapped to 500,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen and oxygen flanked by two SRBS, you want to know that the electrical systems at the pad are in good order.
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punkboi - 26/8/2006 7:19 PM
Source please?
Randy is a source. He's radio media at KSC.
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Cool.It's a bank holiday here tomorrow :)
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 2:46 PM
One word describes this
How about two words - common sense. And I'd lay pretty good odds that weather was going to be a problem anyways.
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Austin - 26/8/2006 1:52 PM Brian -- I understand how you feel. But if that's gonna be your *ss strapped to 500,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen and oxygen flanked by two SRBS, you want to know that the electrical systems at the pad are in good order.
Oh I know, it just bites for me because now I have to listen to NPR radio at work monday to find out what happens. No tv and no internet :(
Dont get me wrong, for the crew I know it the right course of action, just not for me lol
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Monday huh? Good.
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 12:02 PM
Austin - 26/8/2006 1:52 PM Brian -- I understand how you feel. But if that's gonna be your *ss strapped to 500,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen and oxygen flanked by two SRBS, you want to know that the electrical systems at the pad are in good order.
Oh I know, it just bites for me because now I have to listen to NPR radio at work monday to find out what happens. No tv and no internet :(
Dont get me wrong, for the crew I know it the right course of action, just not for me lol
I'm with ya, Brian
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the briefing's on now.
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I will be very interested to hear what exactly the concern is with regard to the lightning -- is it an issue of knowing how much energy was transferred/absorbed by the vehicle, or do they have a number on the energy and now they're worried about possible damage? If there's a cloud over the electronics onboard now because of that lightning strike, I will be very interested to hear what the rationale is for flight. ESD is a very insidiously destructive force. Once they open that can of worms it will be very hard to close, IMO.
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Wow, est >100kA. Possibly the largest known strike at the pad.
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Question about the H2 vent arm pyro circuit, may have exceeded allowed bus parameters.
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MKremer - 26/8/2006 11:46 AM "OK, punkboi may not be able to watch the launch; we'll need to reschedule for Monday. Find some credible excuse we can use to do that." ;)
DAAAMN STRAIGHT! And I want the shuttle crew to drink lemon-flavored Tang once they get to orbit. Why? 'CAUSE I SAID SO. ;)
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That AP guy Seth looks like one smug git.
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If needed to re-test *everything* at the pad, SRBs, and orbiter, will take 96 hours (per test specifications).
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100,000 amps is quite a significant lightning strike.
One of the primary concerns is with regard to the H2 vent arm pyrotechnic.
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MMT tomorrow morning at 10am EDT, not sure if there will be a press conf afterwards
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Bus spike noticed on the orbiter, >80mS (over spec), bus is for fuel cell 1, tests to be done to know whether that is a problem or just a transient.
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Austin - 26/8/2006 9:29 PM
One of the primary concerns is with regard to the H2 vent arm pyrotechnic.
They're 99.9% certain that the pyro itself is fine, however they're not so sure of the of circuits that controls it.
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now, they say 20% chance of no-go on monday. hmm.......
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The Air Force weather guy is pretty good.
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DaveS - 26/8/2006 12:32 PM
Austin - 26/8/2006 9:29 PM
One of the primary concerns is with regard to the H2 vent arm pyrotechnic.
They're 99.9% certain that the pyro itself is fine, however they're not so sure of the of circuits that controls it.
Ya Dave, I have serious doubts regarding 24 hours on the delay, especially due to weather prohibiting access today. I think that 48-72 is more realistic.
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Smoke/burnt electrical smell noticed around the pad. No definitive location yet. Inspections ongoing as to location.
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MKremer - 26/8/2006 2:37 PM
The Air Force weather guy is pretty good.
"hmmm...." meaning i have a bit of confidence. besides, the military-dude is, like, nasa's weatherman, huh? i see him all the time...
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Austin - 26/8/2006 2:38 PM
Ya Dave, I have serious doubts regarding 24 hours on the delay, especially due to weather prohibiting access today. I think that 48-72 is more realistic.
Doesn't beyond 48hrs get into affecting the LOX/LH2 fuel cell conditions as far as boil-off and mission length limits?
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Another still from video of the strike, and a look outside as to why noone is at the pad right now.
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 3:45 PM
Another still from video of the strike, and a look outside as to why noone is at the pad right now.
Yup, although that line of storms looks like it is sitting over I-95 right now...they still have to get through this afternoon and evening's nasties...
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That camera view is facing East correct???
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Is there any video of the lightning strike? (she asked hopefully...)
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spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 9:39 PM
"hmmm...." meaning i have a bit of confidence. besides, the military-dude is, like, nasa's weatherman, huh? i see him all the time...
Nope. That's 1st Lt. Kaleb Nordgren of the 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station.
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 4:01 PM
That camera view is facing East correct???
West -- note that the orbiter tail points (more or less) due south on the pad.
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 10:01 PM
That camera view is facing East correct???
West. North is to the right and south is to the left.
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yeah, thought about that being wrong and didnt have time to correct myself , thanks
As for video , if someone was lucky enough to record that conference I bet the strike shots could be taken out of it
Replaying the briefing now on NASATV
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astrobrian - 26/8/2006 12:45 PM Another still from video of the strike, and a look outside as to why noone is at the pad right now.
Actually, a white truck arrived at the launch pad just minutes before NASA TV ended its footage of the shuttle at 39B
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I saw that as well, looked like a bus more than a truck, anyone know what that was?
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Looks like that line of storms has mushroomed out to the east over the coastline...
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Apparently FlightStar (member here) is involved with the Orbiter side of evaluations. So we might get some good info when he gets home :)
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spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 3:36 PM
now, they say 20% chance of no-go on monday. hmm.......
All along Monday looked good... 20% chance of no-go means 80% chance of go. That shouldn't get a "hmmm" unless I'm missing something ;>
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For FL, a 20% no-go forecast is pretty darn good. :)
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Naraht - 26/8/2006 4:02 PM
Is there any video of the lightning strike? (she asked hopefully...)
Yes - it ran in the 3pm EDT conference. Really not that compelling, the pics show it all...
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rdale - 26/8/2006 4:46 PM
Naraht - 26/8/2006 4:02 PM
Is there any video of the lightning strike? (she asked hopefully...)
Yes - it ran in the 3pm EDT conference. Really not that compelling, the pics show it all...
There was another bit in the OTV 147 slow-mo...I'll post a couple of screenshots in a bit. You're right, though -- the "video" shown at the conference covers only a second or two of time...
(Also John44 has been posting video of all the briefings, so look for that, too.)
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These are the OTV 147 frames I picked; the first one is the one that I didn't catch in the OTV 145 frames, but I'll double-check that.
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Some of the reporters at the conferences are really glum and lifeless people. I know that has nothing to do with anything, but they need to cheer up. Hope you're not like that Chris.
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Speaking of - tune in to your local CBS affiliate at 6pm for this tidbit in Drew Levinson's package:
"...space station construction was halted after Columbia blew up in 2003."
Wow.
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Jackson - 26/8/2006 5:12 PM
Some of the reporters at the conferences are really glum and lifeless people.
I'd call it being serious. Or professional. Or both.
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Jackson - 26/8/2006 10:12 PM
Some of the reporters at the conferences are really glum and lifeless people. I know that has nothing to do with anything, but they need to cheer up. Hope you're not like that Chris.
This is me on NASA TV when confronting NASA managers over MSFC concerns about the ETs ;)
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Chris Bergin - 26/8/2006 5:23 PM
This is me on NASA TV when confronting NASA managers over MSFC concerns about the ETs ;)
Hmmm...how much do you like pizza, Chris?
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psloss - 26/8/2006 4:03 PM
These are the OTV 147 frames I picked; the first one is the one that I didn't catch in the OTV 145 frames, but I'll double-check that.
I noted there were quite a few reporters chuckling after that 2nd video, probably because of the dropout right as the strike first hit. I took the reactions as kind of a nervous "wow!" laughter, realising how strong that strike actually was to cause the video signal dropout.
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It's more likely over-exposure, it doesn't take a "special" lightning bolt to do that. Take a pic with your camcorder of a thunderstorm and when you slow down you'll see that on every strike.
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Is RSS rollback delayed to Sunday or is it still on schedule?
I also heard that there is this platform that can extend out to the beanie cap on the LOX vent arm. I don't see any such structure in photos of the pad. The only one I do see is the extended structure when the arm is in it's retracted position.
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MKremer - 26/8/2006 4:25 PM
psloss - 26/8/2006 4:03 PM
These are the OTV 147 frames I picked; the first one is the one that I didn't catch in the OTV 145 frames, but I'll double-check that.
I noted there were quite a few reporters chuckling after that 2nd video, probably because of the dropout right as the strike first hit. I took the reactions as kind of a nervous "wow!" laughter, realising how strong that strike actually was to cause the video signal dropout.
No, the reason everybody was laughing is right as the flash of lightning occured on the video replay a real clap of thunder was heared outside at the press-site...it was as if we were watching live shot instead of video.
Mark Kirkman
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MarkD - 26/8/2006 6:33 PM
Is RSS rollback delayed to Sunday or is it still on schedule?
I also heard that there is this platform that can extend out to the beanie cap on the LOX vent arm. I don't see any such structure in photos of the pad. The only one I do see is the extended structure when the arm is in it's retracted position.
RSS rollback won't be today. It will be when they are ready to go into tanking...
The vent arm lightning issue was with the LH2 vent arm, not LO2...I'll add a couple of shots shortly...
Edit -- first shot with the arm, second today without:
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mkirk - 26/8/2006 5:38 PM
No, the reason everybody was laughing is right as the flash of lightning occured on the video replay a real clap of thunder was heared outside at the press-site...it was as if we were watching live shot instead of video.
Mark Kirkman
Thanks, that certainly makes more sense - I can understand a little bit of titter from seeing a video dropout due to strong lightning, but experiencing thunder in real time - and almost one cue during the pre-recorded lightning video - would sure cause me to give a somewhat amused/nervous chuckle.
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Hahaha that's great. Funny how the mood at most press conferences seems to be lightened at some point...either by a funny quote from the officials or a coincidence like this.
Example 1: Mike Leinbach, STS-121 Post-Launch Conference: "We didn't execute any birds!"
Example 2: LeRoy Cain, STS-115 Press Briefing: "We will do whatever we can to leave the payload in orbit. (reporters chuckle) PREFERABLY at the station."
Good times. And for Mark, who are you affiliated with again? I know I've heard your name at the briefings.
Thanks!
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FWIW, the NTV Video File advisory has tomorrow's post MMT briefing as NET noon Eastern...
(Mark's with Interspace News (http://www.interspacenews.com/)).
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Cool I'll be sure to check that out. Thank goodness C-Span broadcasts those press conferences! Texas Tech is a little slow at giving us Dish Network in the residence halls and apartments so we can all enjoy NASA tv. Okay maybe it's just me and Lindsay but that would be cool. We'll see what they say! Thanks for the update.
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psloss - 26/8/2006 3:40 PM MarkD - 26/8/2006 6:33 PM Is RSS rollback delayed to Sunday or is it still on schedule? I also heard that there is this platform that can extend out to the beanie cap on the LOX vent arm. I don't see any such structure in photos of the pad. The only one I do see is the extended structure when the arm is in it's retracted position.
RSS rollback won't be today. It will be when they are ready to go into tanking... The vent arm lightning issue was with the LH2 vent arm, not LO2...I'll add a couple of shots shortly... Edit -- first shot with the arm, second today without:
There's a worker on the vent arm right now
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For comparison (sort of), here's a similar event from STS-106 in September, 2000:
http://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts106/video/000906lightning_qt.html
Further reference:
http://www-pao.ksc.nasa.gov/kscpao/status/stsstat/2000/sep/9-06-00s.htm
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The access platform for the GH2 umbillical carrier plate is now in position for system checks:
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DaveS - 26/8/2006 4:16 PM The access platform for the GH2 umbillical carrier plate is now in position for system checks:
Posted that pic before you did! ;)
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Any word on how long the additional testing will take? I saw earlier that the RSS rollback will be postponed until tomorrow evening, but does anyone have a time for that? That'd be great to be one of those workers that get to go out on the LOX and GOX VA's. Gotta love the heights!
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nathan.moeller - 26/8/2006 7:23 PM
Any word on how long the additional testing will take?
Kind of a chicken and egg question: anyone who knows now would be wise to take those powers to Vegas.
nathan.moeller - 26/8/2006 7:23 PM
I saw earlier that the RSS rollback will be postponed until tomorrow evening, but does anyone have a time for that? That'd be great to be one of those workers that get to go out on the LOX and GOX VA's. Gotta love the heights!
RSS rollback would probably be scheduled at around the same time, but they usually do it when they're ready (sometimes early, sometimes late) rather than to a time schedule; the time is a guesstimate.
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psloss - 26/8/2006 6:16 PM
For comparison (sort of), here's a similar event from STS-106 in September, 2000:
http://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts106/video/000906lightning_qt.html
Thanks for that video link! The power of nature is hard to beat eh? Reminds me of the time I took a toy B&W camera and taped a massive electrical storm. I wish I still had that tape.
Avatar anyone? (22KB)
[IMG=http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/295/animation9on1.gif]
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/295/animation9on1.gif
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Haha good answer. I guess the better term would be "target time." I remember Leinbach saying they have four to five hours of leeway time to get the RSS cleared for launch.
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Is there any possibility whatsoever that extra inspections or work may require a rollback to the VAB?
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shuttlefan - 26/8/2006 7:44 PM
Is there any possibility whatsoever that extra inspections or work may require a rollback to the VAB?
I don't know that your question could really be answered until the inspections are actually completed.
I suppose the literal answer to your question is yes -- there is always the possibility of having to rollback to the VAB in the event that a problem arises that can't be fixed out at the pad. But that is extremely rare and the question is, I think, somewhat hypothetical at this point.
Let's hope not!
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Here's to Monday then.
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spaceflightnow is saying the booster team wants to run additional tests that could push launch back to mid week :( Chris do any of your sources confirm this?
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Is there any real reason why this needs to be called? I mean that vent arm pryo did it get blasted? And if it did not isn't it in greater danger of being blasted by the strike then the SRB pyros?
Damn if we have to delay (mostly likely ruining a trip for quite a few people and further causing problems with the program PR) because of this then we really really need to go install a better protection system on that pad. This isn't cool...
And monday was supposed to be the best day to launch with 20 percent right? What a stupid call to make when we have the best chance to launch so soon. Esp if the vent arm is fine.
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Zachstar - 26/8/2006 10:31 PM
Damn if we have to delay (mostly likely ruining a trip for quite a few people and further causing problems with the program PR) because of this then we really really need to go install a better protection system on that pad. This isn't cool...
A launch delay is frustrating for everyone, but I can assure you that what would REALLY not be cool would be if the hydrogen vent arm pyrotechnics didn't fire correctly at T-0 and Atlantis' ET was damaged as she pushed away from the pad. (or some other pad related malfunction) This was an unprecedented lightning strike.
No matter how technologically advanced man becomes, Mother Nature will occassionally humble us with a display of her power and remind us that she is in control.
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Indeed about the Vent arm but if it comes up ok is there a REAL cause to delay based on the SRB Pyros? I mean is this a real issue or is it people covering their ass?
Im not trying to be rude and I want the crew to be safe but there is such a thing as too safe.
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Zachstar - 26/8/2006 10:59 PM
Indeed about the Vent arm but if it comes up ok is there a REAL cause to delay based on the SRB Pyros? I mean is this a real issue or is it people covering their ass?
Im not trying to be rude and I want the crew to be safe but there is such a thing as too safe.
Zack -- It could very well be a case of people trying to cover their ass. Then again, based upon the intensity of this lightening strike, there could be some real concern. Mike Leinbach (launch director) today said that they were getting one abnormal reading out at the pad (I don't remember what function), and that technicians this morning noted a "charred smell."
Hard to say. I just want the crew to be safe.
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First of all its Zach please...
2nd that smell was coming from the vent arm NOT the SRB system unless somthing new has come up with the smell.
1923 GMT (3:23 p.m. EDT)
Technicians performing launch pad inspections this morning reported smelling a charred odor near the liquid hydrogen vent arm that extends from the service tower to the backside of the external tank. Engineers will be inspecting all of the wiring and circuitry to verify the pyrotechnics that fire at liftoff to separate the arm from the shuttle weren't harmed in the lightning strike.
I believe this issue is not about the vent but the SRB.
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Zachstar - 27/8/2006 6:59 AM
Indeed about the Vent arm but if it comes up ok is there a REAL cause to delay based on the SRB Pyros? I mean is this a real issue or is it people covering their ass?
It's so hard to tell. I mean, I could just hear Lawrence Mulloy saying that to the Morton Thiokol engineers on the eve of the Challenger launch.
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I decided to check the NHC website for the latest charts on Hurricane Ernesto. Well, it's a good news/bad news situation.
Good news: JSC is no longer threatned by it.
Bad news: the latest 5 day track chart has it blowing right across northen Florida by 8 pm EDT Thursday. This could lead to a rollback to the VAB.
However, it's still a very dynamic situation which could change on a day-by-day basis.
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DaveS - 27/8/2006 6:48 AM
Bad news: the latest 5 day track chart has it blowing right across northen Florida by 8 pm EDT Thursday. This could lead to a rollback to the VAB.
The latest discussion (the 5 am EDT one), talks about this:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/270900.shtml
NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW
TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD.
Even without a rollback and even if the track were to be more westerly, it would have the system come to strongly influence KSC weather in that mid/late-week timeframe.
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Zachstar - 27/8/2006 1:59 AM
Indeed about the Vent arm but if it comes up ok is there a REAL cause to delay based on the SRB Pyros? I mean is this a real issue or is it people covering their ass?
You do realize that these are not toys and it could be both, right?
How would you determine whether or not this was a real issue without testing or analysis?
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Launch delayed to Tuesday: http://www.floridatoday.com/floridatoday/blogs/spaceteam/
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"Permanent" link to that:
http://www.floridatoday.com/floridatoday/blogs/spaceteam/2006/08/launch-delayed-another-day-to-tuesday.html
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nathan.moeller - 26/8/2006 7:23 PM
Any word on how long the additional testing will take? I saw earlier that the RSS rollback will be postponed until tomorrow evening, but does anyone have a time for that? That'd be great to be one of those workers that get to go out on the LOX and GOX VA's. Gotta love the heights!
VA's ???
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noooo, i'm leaving for a 10-day vacation tuesday, so i'll not be able to see the launch, damn it!
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Zachstar - 27/8/2006 1:31 AM
Damn if we have to delay (mostly likely ruining a trip for quite a few people and further causing problems with the program PR) because of this then we really really need to go install a better protection system on that pad. This isn't cool...
It is the best there is of any pad
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"Damn if we have to delay (mostly likely ruining a trip for quite a few people and further causing problems with the program PR)"
This is sad to see people whining about safety because somebody isn't going to see the launch. Sad. And I think program PR would be hurt a lot more if only one SRB ignited.
Wow.
"the latest 5 day track chart has it blowing right across northen Florida by 8 pm EDT Thursday. This could lead to a rollback to the VAB. "
So they could cancel a launch attempt on Tuesday if the storm is forecast to hit on Thursday?
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rdale - 27/8/2006 2:08 PM
"the latest 5 day track chart has it blowing right across northen Florida by 8 pm EDT Thursday. This could lead to a rollback to the VAB. "
So they could cancel a launch attempt on Tuesday if the storm is forecast to hit on Thursday?
Yes. Here's the plan on how KSC deals with hurricances: http://www-pao.ksc.nasa.gov/kscpao/status/weatstat/hurrican.htm
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rdale - 27/8/2006 8:08 AM
So they could cancel a launch attempt on Tuesday if the storm is forecast to hit on Thursday?
For a hurricane threat, I don't remember them being in this configuration -- with the orbiter cryos loaded. Perhaps Jim knows for sure, but I assume they'd have to offload the cryos before a rollback. (Past experiences say that among other things, the ordinance would have to be disconnected.)
The issue would probably be how much extra lead time they need to drain the PRSD for a rollback...the tracks for Ernesto with the different models are a little discouraging...
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I think they have to drain them. No H2 vents in the VAB
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"Yes. Here's the plan on how KSC deals with hurricances"
According to the plan they would not need to - if preps have to occur 48 hours prior to wind breaking the 40kt criteria, and that wouldn't happen until Thursday night, an early-Tuesday launch would give them enough time for one attempt unless I'm missing something...
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rdale - 27/8/2006 8:25 AM
"Yes. Here's the plan on how KSC deals with hurricances"
According to the plan they would not need to - if preps have to occur 48 hours prior to wind breaking the 40kt criteria, and that wouldn't happen until Thursday night, an early-Tuesday launch would give them enough time for one attempt unless I'm missing something...
Tuesday launch time would be about 3:30 pm local...if they scrubbed, that would add ET drain/safing to the rollback preps...
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rdale - 27/8/2006 2:25 PM
"Yes. Here's the plan on how KSC deals with hurricances"
According to the plan they would not need to - if preps have to occur 48 hours prior to wind breaking the 40kt criteria, and that wouldn't happen until Thursday night, an early-Tuesday launch would give them enough time for one attempt unless I'm missing something...
Well, that is when not in a countdown configuration which Atlantis is in now with the onboard PRSD reactants loaded. I believe that requires the 72 hour prep version as it takes time to drain the reactants and then allow personell onto the pad again for disconnecting ordinance and facility connections.
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SpaceflightNow.com recent update:
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts115/status.html
1222 GMT (8:22 a.m. EDT)
NASA officials continue to wrestle with the post-lightning strike data collection and analysis, plus trying to decide whether to perform additional tests on the solid rocket booster pyrotechnics. Launch team engineers have been told liftoff is likely to slip to no earlier than Tuesday. However, a NASA spokesman says a decision to delay from Monday has not yet been made.
Also in the mix is Hurricane Ernesto, which has become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2006. The latest forecast track by the National Hurricane Center now takes the storm into Florida later this week. See the track here.
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I guess I can add my 2 cents here;
Despite the word on the street and at the lower levels of the program late last night, which said the NET (no earlier than) launch date would now be Tuesday at 3:41:42 pm eastern, the PAO says that the Program has not ruled out a possible attempt for Monday. The "official plan" is to meet at the MMT tonight at 6:00 pm eastern and pick a luanch date.
The PAOs hope to have some sort of briefing around mid day to explain what is happening.
"Personally" I don't think Monday is an option anymore!
Mark Kirkman
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Fight of the sources ;>
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rdale - 27/8/2006 7:37 AM
Fight of the sources ;>
Yeah, you said that right!!!!!
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mkirk - 27/8/2006 8:36 AM
I guess I can add my 2 cents here;
Thanks, Mark...the NASA shuttle mission page is saying that the briefing would be after the 6 pm meeting (and also noting that the 10 am meeting was pushed back):
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/main/index.html
Here's an excerpt:
Engineers Continue to Study Lightning Strike
Shuttle managers held a Mission Management Team teleconference Saturday night to discuss the latest information they had about potential effects from the lightning strike at the launch pad Friday. At this point, there are no indications of damage from the strike. While several teams were able to clear their systems of any concerns of impact from the strike, including the orbiter and external tank teams, the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) project had no data because its systems weren't on at the time of the strike. Managers decided to give the teams extra time Sunday to look at all available data and determine whether the SRB could have seen high currents or voltage.
The Mission Management Team will meet again at 6 p.m. EDT Sunday, instead of 10 a.m. as previously scheduled. A news briefing on NASA TV will follow that meeting.
I'd take an additional mid-day briefing (as was scheduled for NET noon Eastern), though...
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What time can we expect a decision about whether to delay the shot until Tuesday? That would suck because I'll be in CLASS!;)
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"shot" doesn't apply to launch vehicles anymore. That is an old term, related to artillery, I believe ;)
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Austin - 27/8/2006 12:54 AM
Zachstar - 26/8/2006 10:31 PM
Damn if we have to delay (mostly likely ruining a trip for quite a few people and further causing problems with the program PR) because of this then we really really need to go install a better protection system on that pad. This isn't cool...
A launch delay is frustrating for everyone, but I can assure you that what would REALLY not be cool would be if the hydrogen vent arm pyrotechnics didn't fire correctly at T-0 and Atlantis' ET was damaged as she pushed away from the pad. (or some other pad related malfunction) This was an unprecedented lightning strike.
No matter how technologically advanced man becomes, Mother Nature will occassionally humble us with a display of her power and remind us that she is in control.
Right. Don't mess with lightning. The stuff is nasty. It does the unexpected, especially when it is a monster strike like this one. I've seen lightning circumvent excellent lightning protection systems before. Lightning protection only reduces the chances of damage. Even the best systems do not offer a 100% guarantee of protection. If they have no way to be certain about the pad or SRB pyrotechnics, they should thoroughly test them, IMO.
- Ed Kyle
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Near hits are as bad as direct
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Some updates:
"Hurricane another concern for Atlantis"
http://www.floridatoday.com/floridatoday/blogs/spaceteam/2006/08/hurricane-another-concern-for-atlantis_27.html
"09:40 a.m., 08/27/06, Update: Monday launch no longer appears possible; Ernesto takes turn toward Florda"
http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/current.html
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Oh well, things were going well except for the weather. One allways has to be little worried when management "don't know, but know enought, that they know that they don't know"..
Well to know enough, what will it take to test the SRB's (part of the 96 hours test suite) and what was the results from the ET H2 vent arm ?
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Loved that quote from yesterday, with lightning I guess it's an accelerated case of ESD. you just cant be too safe with it when it concerns lives. As for Ernesto, I have a boss with that name, will let him know he caused all this on Monday :)
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For what it's worth, we're going with NET Tuesday, as the testing was no where near completed last night (source: Flightstar, who's involved).
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Chris, what where they testing last night? H2 ET vent?
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Avron - 27/8/2006 3:42 PM
Chris, what where they testing last night? H2 ET vent?
Among other things, such as the SRBs etc.
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Are you saying that they have started the SRB test? or are they just reviewing data?
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astrobrian - 27/8/2006 10:36 AM
Loved that quote from yesterday, with lightning I guess it's an accelerated case of ESD. you just cant be too safe with it when it concerns lives. As for Ernesto, I have a boss with that name, will let him know he caused all this on Monday :)
full quote... I like it as well... "we know just enough, to know , that we don't know, enough, to be able to press on.."
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Avron - 27/8/2006 5:07 PM
Are you saying that they have started the SRB test?
They can test the SRBs without draining the PRSD reactants. But what they can't test is the Pyrotechnic Initiator Controllers(PICs). To test those, they have to drain the PRSD reactants and go into the aft engine compartment.
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Apparently the problem wasn't the lighning bolt itself, but the field it created around the stack.
Any clever electricians around? :)
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Does anybody find it interesting that the lightening bolt struck the tower lightening rod (I guess that's what it is).
If I understand the concept, this is no supposed to happen.
The idea is lightening rods bleed off atmospheic energy in the area to prevent a strike. I have a picture somewhere of a lightening strike on the pad (many years ago) and shows the strike going around the rod and touching an area close to by the SRB skirt.
That's the way is supposed to work!
shuttle_buff
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I've noticed that with each delay, the NET launch time move up (earlier). Does anyone know at what point we begin to lose optimal lighting conditions that the afternoon provides?
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shuttle_buff - 27/8/2006 8:23 AM Does anybody find it interesting that the lightening bolt struck the tower lightening rod (I guess that's what it is). If I understand the concept, this is no supposed to happen. The idea is lightening rods bleed off atmospheic energy in the area to prevent a strike. I have a picture somewhere of a lightening strike on the pad (many years ago) and shows the strike going around the rod and touching an area close to by the SRB skirt. That's the way is supposed to work! shuttle_buff
Most videos I've seen (some are on L2, I believe) shows most lightning bolts hitting the rod. I think that's what's suppose to happen.
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Austin - 27/8/2006 5:24 PM
I've noticed that with each delay, the NET launch time move up (earlier). Does anyone know at what point we begin to lose optimal lighting conditions that the afternoon provides?
The current lighted launch window ends on Sept. 14. Then there's only 3 left in the entire year, 2 in October and 1 in December.
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DaveS - 27/8/2006 8:27 AM
Austin - 27/8/2006 5:24 PM
I've noticed that with each delay, the NET launch time move up (earlier). Does anyone know at what point we begin to lose optimal lighting conditions that the afternoon provides?
The current lighted launch window ends on Sept. 14. Then there's only 3 left in the entire year, 2 in October and 1 in December.
Thanks, Dave
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I have always thought the rod itself was designed to take the strike so the lightning doesnt strike whatever the rod is there to protect.
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Austin - 27/8/2006 10:24 AM I've noticed that with each delay, the NET launch time move up (earlier). Does anyone know at what point we begin to lose optimal lighting conditions that the afternoon provides?
Station orbit plays a big role in when they launch. The orbit of the ISS dictates launch times, the ones we are seeing are in the optimal light period
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Word from people at KSC: Potential of a rollback and the window being lost due to Hurricane threat. Best option is to try and make Monday (although that doesn't look hopeful, given what everyone is saying, including other media).
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While I know it's still early, the 11:00a (Eastern) storm update just a few minutes ago shows Hurricane Ernesto now coming even closer to the cape than before.
If the ground speed keeps up, a Tuesday launch could now be influenced by Ernesto.
shuttle_buff
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Chris Bergin - 27/8/2006 8:38 AM Word from people at KSC: Potential of a rollback and the window being lost due to Hurricane threat. Best option is to try and make Monday (although that doesn't look hopeful, given what everyone is saying, including other media).
By window, do you mean Tuesday's launch attempt?
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punkboi - 27/8/2006 11:46 AM
By window, do you mean Tuesday's launch attempt?
Probably the daylight/before Soyuz window -- that closes on September 7th and they'd have probably a week of work after getting back out to the pad. It could take a little while for the weather to improve after the storm passes...
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I think Chris means the entire launch window (Aug 27 to Sep 7) being lost. I'm not up on how much of an overall delay a rollback creates?
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Monday is officially off the table!
Mark Kirkman
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punkboi - 27/8/2006 5:46 PM
By window, do you mean Tuesday's launch attempt?
Nope. He means the entire Aug. 27-Sept. 7 window. It takes about 9 days(best case) to ready a shuttle for launch countdown following a weather-related rollback and subsequent re-rollout to pad. Then take in account the 3 days it takes to go through a launch countdown.
That's a total of 11 days. There's not that much time left in the window.
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Monday officially ruled out.
And yes, rollback would kill the window.
Maybe the Russians can help and delay Soyuz?
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Chris Bergin - 27/8/2006 11:52 AM
Monday officially ruled out.
And yes, rollback would kill the window.
Maybe the Russians can help and delay Soyuz?
It'd probably be better from a shuttle scheduling standpoint to launch and do the handover now -- although the issue with the Soyuz launch was where it puts the Exp. 13 return; not sure a hypothetical handover now would allow for a daylight Soyuz landing and recovery.
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It's not looking good folks, sorry.
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Seems as though the Russians are always quite firm in their launch plans, or would they be flexible? ;)
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psloss - 27/8/2006 8:51 AM punkboi - 27/8/2006 11:46 AM By window, do you mean Tuesday's launch attempt?
Probably the daylight/before Soyuz window -- that closes on September 7th and they'd have probably a week of work after getting back out to the pad. It could take a little while for the weather to improve after the storm passes...
Oops... By rollback I thought you were talking about the RSS being rolled back. And I figured you were talking about the whole launch window.
...
Damn you, Mother Nature. :(
Chris Bergin - 27/8/2006 8:52 AM Monday officially ruled out. And yes, rollback would kill the window. Maybe the Russians can help and delay Soyuz?
What, and delay the first female space tourist from lifting off into space? Probably not. ;)
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According to FLA Today, NASA plans 2 pm launch status update. It will of course air live on NASA TV.
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In the Broadcast community there are 2 ways of dealing with lightning, the first is to take the strike to a lightning rod, that conducts the energy to ground, the second is lightning dissipatoin. The dissipation method places something that looks like a chimney sweep brush at the highest point and it hopefully absorbs the energy and conducts it to ground before a strike ever happens. The lightning rod is (hopefully) a direct connection to ground to channel the strike to ground. Wiki has a pretty good description of these. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_rod The general belief at a broadcast site is that the tower provides you a cone of potection from the top of the tower, that's great, but I've also seen ball lightning come in off the power line, under the cone and go to ground about 5 feet from where I was standing.
Looks like maybe I'll be going home without seeing it fly this trip, I'd rather have it safe than deal with the consequences.
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Here's recent set of storm track model runs; reference:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
Via:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/hurricane.htm
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Let me add a little fuel to the speculation fires:
Unless the Hurricane forecast changes tonight for the good (i.e. a sudden jog to the west) then even Tuesday is not going to happen. They can’t get in a launch configuration, have a Tuesday scrub, and then roll back in time to avoid the wind concerns at the Cape.
My opinion is we are done until October unfortunately. Even if the Russians can give us a couple extra days it is still not enough time to roll back to the Pad this weekend or early next week and then get plugged back in and configured for another Countdown.
Mark Kirkman
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mkirk - 27/8/2006 12:07 PM
My opinion is we are done until October unfortunately. Even if the Russians can give us a couple extra days it is still not enough time to roll back to the Pad this weekend or early next week and then get plugged back in and configured for another Countdown.
Do you (or anyone) know what's the deadline for a rollback decision given the current vehicle configuration and Ernesto forecast? Do they have to decide today?
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mkirk - 27/8/2006 5:07 PM
Let me add a little fuel to the speculation fires:
Unless the Hurricane forecast changes tonight for the good (i.e. a sudden jog to the west) then even Tuesday is not going to happen. They can’t get in a launch configuration, have a Tuesday scrub, and then roll back in time to avoid the wind concerns at the Cape.
My opinion is we are done until October unfortunately. Even if the Russians can give us a couple extra days it is still not enough time to roll back to the Pad this weekend or early next week and then get plugged back in and configured for another Countdown.
Mark Kirkman
Thanks Mark. :(
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mkirk - 27/8/2006 6:07 PM
My opinion is we are done until October unfortunately. Even if the Russians can give us a couple extra days it is still not enough time to roll back to the Pad this weekend or early next week and then get plugged back in and configured for another Countdown.
My opinion are the same.
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psloss - 27/8/2006 11:11 AM
mkirk - 27/8/2006 12:07 PM
My opinion is we are done until October unfortunately. Even if the Russians can give us a couple extra days it is still not enough time to roll back to the Pad this weekend or early next week and then get plugged back in and configured for another Countdown.
Do you (or anyone) know what's the deadline for a rollback decision given the current vehicle configuration and Ernesto forecast? Do they have to decide today?
Given the speed of this storm, I would expect the decision to be made today. I know a lot of the troops have been placed on standby for a rollback at midnight.
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I wonder if Brent Jett and Co. are cursing up a storm (no pun intended) at the crew quarters right now ;)
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Well, it looks like all pointers are looking at a rollback... I just don't see the risk been taken to hang around for Tuesday, when the stack/pad is not ready in terms of tests... ok, what the window in October?
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Avron - 27/8/2006 6:25 PM
Well, it looks like all pointers are looking at a rollback... I just don't see the risk been taken to hang around for Tuesday, when the stack/pad is not ready in terms of tests... ok, what the window in October?
2 days, in mid(?)-October.
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Late October, at least as of the last FAWG chart I saw -- it's bracketed by the lighted ET umbilical well photography that "opens" on October 26th; on the other side, there's a beta angle cutout that begins on October 29th.
If they're going down this road, I'd expect the program to "work" the ET umbilical photo lighting as they did with this window. The daylight launch window opens on October 20th.
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Unless they issue a waiver for the self imposed lighting conditions, then it opens up a bit. Would they do that given the circumstances?
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me thinkin NASA will lessening the ET's lighting LCC to maximize the launch window.
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Is it at all possible that NASA will just conclude that they have enough positive data from STS-121 to just up and do away with the daylight launch constraint in order to expand the STS-115 launch options? ;)
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We're expecting to hear a rollback being called.
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Looks like a possible weather briefing to the MMT and some huddling around the LH2 vent at the pad in the past few minutes...
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Would rollback ocurr as soon as tonight?
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C'mon Ernesto...take a jog to the west, would ya? As far as eliminating the daylight launch constraint, wouldn't the engineers want to see how the foam performs under a High Q ascent before allowing this? If that's the case, and if October is truly in the cards now, I would hope they would be able to squeeze out some more time in the October daylight window. Is that realistic?
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Forgot about the High Q , probably not going to lift the constraints then :( Mainly becuase if foam is going to shed, it will be worse in High Q. What is the current schedule of briefings at this point? I have heard of 2 today so far to occur. One in a little while and another around 10 or 11 tonight Eastern
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At a 2 p.m. press conference today, Bill Gerstenmaier, Associate Adm. for space operations, will provide further details on launch preparations. The briefing will be carried live on NASA TV.
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It's NET 2:30 pm EDT now.
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The storm seems to be too much of a risk. It keeps heading to the east, not the west.
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STS-Chris - 27/8/2006 8:07 PM
Officials received a Hurricane Ernesto briefing earlier this hour. Details on the storm's forecast and whether Atlantis might have to be rolled off the launch pad to seek shelter in the Vehicle Assembly Building will be addressed in the upcoming NASA news conference, now expected to begin no sooner than 2:30 p.m.
This is from Spaceflightnow.com: http://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts115/status.html
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Well duh.
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Let's PLEASE keep this update thread to UPDATES, not what other media are catching up with what we've already heard. Thanks.
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One computer model now has the track go directly over the Cape.
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Latest NHC advisory (2 pm Eastern):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/271758.shtml
May be a tropical storm for a little bit...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
.
.
.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
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So the best option is BAM Medium.. I just hope the storm grinds to a halt...
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Briefing start
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Sure doesn't sound like anything has been decided yet...
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MMT meeting still planned for 6 pm tonight. Sounds like this will be when the rollback decision is made. They're keeping all their options open for both launch and rollback, but they have to choose one soon.
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So the decision is coming tonight, that's for sure.
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One of the crawlers is getting ready for rollback and the OMBUU has been reconnected for possible draining prior to rollback.
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Midnight is the time to make the call
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I guess we'll be looking at the 5 pm NHC "products" to see if maybe Haiti can beat up Ernesto enough...
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midnight is decision time, US time..
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Mark's on our respective teleboxes :)
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Talks ongoing with Russia for flexability on launching the Soyuz
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if rollback... very close to 7th 8th sep
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Hell.. it looks like they are thinking some risk... but want the data from daylight photos
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Good question about daylight constraints from Kelly Young...some hedging about "nibbling" around the edges of the windows (ET umbilical photo, daylight)...
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Talking about crawlers and juggling MLPs in the VAB high bays -- they'd open up VAB HB 3 for Atlantis by moving the MLP with the two SRB segments for 116 around to VAB HB 2.
(Sounds like they'd use both crawlers -- both being tested today -- to be the most time efficient.)
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Definately sounds like this "training exercise" is truly trying cover all the bases for both the go or no go scenerio
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I just like like they way that they are protecting all the options
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"With fingers crossed" the post MMT briefing is NET 8 pm Eastern...
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NET 8 Eastern for the next briefing
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Slapped together an article based on where we are - as per Gerst.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4737
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From a timing standpoint, the other thing I heard was the hypothetical of a Tuesday launch attempt followed by the soonest rollback would get the vehicle to the VAB on Friday. So it sounds like Ernesto would need to slow down or get beaten up in the Caribbean for that...
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Just getting "plugged back in the loop" here...are we potentially talking "other" launch windows, and what/when are they in the next 48 hours? And, if we do fly Tuesday, what in-flight items are a threat from a hurricane?
And, doesn't it make you chuckle a little to hear about the crawlers "running around"...sounds like they gottem out on the beach doing donuts in the sand or something...ha ha ha
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Also with respect to how quickly a launch could be attempted after a rollback in this situation, they did it in one week for STS-96 from harddown on the pad after rollout (May 20) to launch (May 27); here's the old status report for the rollout after the rollback:
http://www-pao.ksc.nasa.gov/kscpao/status/stsstat/1999/may/5-20-99s.htm
Obviously that was many years ago (1999), so I don't know if this is a guarantee it can be repeated -- assuming the question is posed to Mike Leinbach, we should get a better idea tonight on that hypothetical.
Edit: it's worth noting that in that case, the weather cooperated in terms of rolling back and then back out to the pad. It might be tougher this time of the year.
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Free video of the conference in case you missed it:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=4051&start=1&posts=1
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What is the weather forcast for tomorrow?
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Avron - 27/8/2006 3:32 PM
What is the weather forcast for tomorrow?
Good question...I think the folks with the 45th Weather Sqaudron and the Shuttle Weather Office must be especially busy with watching the hurricane data, as they haven't issued a public launch forecast today...I've seen conflicting media reports...
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Nuts I know.. but there is another option.. pickup the count at T-11 this evening, let the data people continue with the analysis, if at T-9 we dont have a good vehicle, Tuesday will not be on so its a run back to the VAB... We know based on the data thus far, we have a good vehicle, good tank and maybe, just maybe some issue with the SRB's... we also know that there is not enough time to fix any problem before we need to get going Tuesday want cna be tested in the current config should have been tested, I assume that the aft will need to be opened to do any further tests and we know there is no time for that...
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Avron - 27/8/2006 3:50 PM
Nuts I know.. but there is another option.. pickup the count at T-11 this evening, let the data people continue with the analysis, if at T-9 we dont have a good vehicle, Tuesday will not be on so its a run back to the VAB... We know based on the data thus far, we have a good vehicle, good tank and maybe, just maybe some issue with the SRB's... we also know that there is not enough time to fix any problem before we need to get going Tuesday want cna be tested in the current config should have been tested, I assume that the aft will need to be opened to do any further tests and we know there is no time for that...
Unless something fundamentally changes with Ernesto or its track, it doesn't sound like they'd have enough time to tank for an attempt tomorrow (Monday) -- if they scrub, that wouldn't get them to the VAB until Thursday and Ernesto is supposed to be nearby then.
Also, the people doing the data analysis might be needed to support the terminal count.
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Dare I even mention, that the weather at the Cape would have been lovely for the originally scheduled launch time of 4:30 (about 25 minutes from now).
I know, I'm sorry to even bring it up.
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Austin - 27/8/2006 4:06 PM
Dare I even mention, that the weather at the Cape would have been lovely for the originally scheduled launch time of 4:30 (about 25 minutes from now).
It would probably still depend on whether those storms west of the SLF are far enough west that they would be go and forecast go for RTLS...
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Mon/Tue still look fine.
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/WeeklyFcst.pdf
I would hesitate to call today "lovely" today - there's a 40,000ft thunderstorm cell 17 miles west of the runway, so that'd be red for RTLS and no launch.
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psloss - 27/8/2006 1:16 PM
Austin - 27/8/2006 4:06 PM
Dare I even mention, that the weather at the Cape would have been lovely for the originally scheduled launch time of 4:30 (about 25 minutes from now).
It would probably still depend on whether those storms west of the SLF are far enough west that they would be go and forecast go for RTLS...
True indeed. But based on the current distance between that band and the SLF, I think they would've given the green light.
...And I know Zach -- I'm sorry bring it up. :(
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rdale - 27/8/2006 1:19 PM
Mon/Tue still look fine.
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/WeeklyFcst.pdf
I would hesitate to call today "lovely" today - there's a 40,000ft thunderstorm cell 17 miles west of the runway, so that'd be red for RTLS and no launch.
If the distance really is 17 miles, than you are right -- that would be a LCC violation.
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Austin - 27/8/2006 4:24 PM
True indeed. But based on the current distance between that band and the SLF, I think they would've given the green light.
17 nmi is less than the 20 nmi rule -- that's go...why?
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Sorry folks, I didn't mean to divert the thread. My fault. Let's focus on the current launch options.
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The NHC site right now says "Tropical Storm Ernesto," but no update/report there yet to corroborate...the 5 pm EDT advisory and forecast should be out soon...
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Nevermind:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/272035.shtml
Edit -- fixed link.
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The discussion is also interesting:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT
IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
WIND SPEED FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER
DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE
TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST
IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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psloss - 27/8/2006 3:43 PM
The NHC site right now says "Tropical Storm Ernesto," but no update/report there yet to corroborate...the 5 pm EDT advisory and forecast should be out soon...
I don't understand what you've been saying.
Is this going to be a hurricane when it hits Florida or what?
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Bill Harwood has posted an update, too:
"04:20 p.m., 08/27/06, Update: Rollback options debated; launch windows reviewed"
http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/current.html
Excerpt:
The forecast for Tuesday calls for showers in the area and if NASA failed to get Atlantis off, engineers would not have time to get the shuttle back to the VAB before high winds from Ernesto reached the area. As of this writing, 40-knot winds are expected at the Kennedy Space Center by Thursday afternoon.
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High SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) once Ernesto clears Cuba should/could allow for a rather explosive regeneration...even a minor tropical storm has a good chance of "blowing up" when it hits the 80+ F waters between the Keys and Cuba, and then Florida Bay and the eastern Gulf...the big ? is the track, if this tracks more towards Homestead/Miami for landfall, than the period the core has a chance to regernate is much shorter...this trough diving in over the 72-90 hour period could speed up, which would continue to shift the track more easterly.
Just from looking at the data...MMT has its work cut out on making the roll back call, and got NO help from the 5PM products. An 11pm meeting probably won't get much more help from the 11PM advisory/products
IMHO...it's almost like the only way to decide is a "flip-of-the-coin"...glad I'm not them right now.
And not to get selfish, but I have to start planning for a potential crossing of my neck of the woods, but most likely a much needed rain maker.
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Why don't we keep weather chat in the weather thread and have news here? If Ernie takes the path NHC now has as its center line, there's no worry about winds at Kennedy.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
Scroll down to Cocoa Beach - a 14% chance of 50kt winds... 14% isn't much.
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rdale - 27/8/2006 5:12 PM
Why don't we keep weather chat in the weather thread and have news here? If Ernie takes the path NHC now has as its center line, there's no worry about winds at Kennedy.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
Scroll down to Cocoa Beach - a 14% chance of 50kt winds... 14% isn't much.
That's a high number to play games with for the MMT. Even around 8 to 10% is a tough call...remember the NHC forecasts have done nothing but shift to the RIGHT for the least 48 hours, and its a CONE, not a straight line...hurricane predictions are by no means an exact science.
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I can tell Monday is off. Hopefully not though, I want to see Atlantis fly. :)
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Say hello to Crawler 1 and 2!
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Hello.
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Slowest car race in history.
Besides the 2 snails.
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What are the two launch complex structures in the background?
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MarkD - 27/8/2006 6:01 PM
What are the two launch complex structures in the background?
Atlas V VIF and SLC-40
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MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:01 AM
What are the two launch complex structures in the background?
White object: Launch Complex 37 Mobile Service Tower for protect Delta IV EELVs.
The other is probably the Launch Complex 41 Vertical Integration Facility used to assemble Atlas V EELVs.
Edit:
One out of two correct.
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Crawler driver #1 to crawler driver #2 "Betcha can't do this..." Crawler driver #1 stands on the throttle, pops the front tracks in the air, lets off the gas, and slams down the treads...creating a cloud of dust that's higher than the VAB.
Crawler driver #2 says..."Hmmm that's good...but watch this..." Crawler driver #2 heads over to the Crawler Employee Parking lot, drives over Crawler driver #1's car, crushing it into the asphalt. Crawler driver #1 says "Why the hell did you do that?" Driver #2 says "You got both our car's dirty...figured I'd help wipe the dirt off the windshield of yours."
Hey...what do you expect on short notice!!!
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Looks like the crawlers are being deployed...if they decide to rollback, the one still in the picture would pick up the MLP in High Bay 3 and move it around to High Bay 2.
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Close-up of Crawler approaching HB 3.
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So the next briefing is NET 8pm EDT on NASA TV correct?
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rdale - 27/8/2006 11:37 PM
So the next briefing is NET 8pm EDT on NASA TV correct?
Yep.
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LOL Gocamels. :) Not to mention the Bigfoot Monster Truck show would have two new additions to big machines to crush cars.
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and where in the OBX might you be? Been going there pretty regularly for 49 years...
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Maybe Clear Channel (owns the Monster Trucks) should enquire about getting one of the crawlers when/if one is ever retired
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So how do they plan to use the crawler at this point? Will they sit it outside the pad gate or go ahead and position it underneath Atlantis? Is the second just going to pick up the MLP with boosters attached and move to the West side of the VAB?
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nathan.moeller - 28/8/2006 12:06 AM
So how do they plan to use the crawler at this point? Will they sit it outside the pad gate or go ahead and position it underneath Atlantis? Is the second just going to pick up the MLP with boosters attached and move to the West side of the VAB?
Yes, that would be the plan I believe.
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Cool. But here's what I'm wondering. Why wouldn't they just haul Atlantis into High Bay 2 and save the trouble of moving the 116 stack around? I know there's a good reason or else they wouldn't do it but I'm just curious.
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nathan.moeller - 28/8/2006 1:37 AM
Cool. But here's what I'm wondering. Why wouldn't they just haul Atlantis into High Bay 2 and save the trouble of moving the 116 stack around? I know there's a good reason or else they wouldn't do it but I'm just curious.
Takes longer as the Crawler must then go around the entire VAB. High Bays 1 and 3 are located on the east side of the VAB. 2 and 4 are located on the west side.
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Yeah my bad. But what I don't get is why wouldn't they move Atlantis into High Bay 1 and avoid moving the 116 stack out of HB3? Is there another MLP in HB1 already?
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I believe the doors on HB1 have been in a maintenance period over the past few months so that HB has not been used for STS-121, STS-115 or the STS-116 stacks. Otherwise they could use HB1 for rollback and leave the STS-116 SRB stack in HB3.
Richard
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nathan.moeller - 28/8/2006 1:44 AM
Yeah my bad. But what I don't get is why wouldn't they move Atlantis into High Bay 1 and avoid moving the 116 stack out of HB3? Is there another MLP in HB1 already?
HB 1 is out of comission until mid 2007(?) for modifications.
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Long way around:
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Needless to say, Atlantis isn't best pleased with this situation....
(Astrobrian had too much spare time on his hands) ;)
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Don't forget the launch status meeting starts in a few minutes, people. *Get ready to be disappointed.* ;)
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Cool. Looks as if they'll have to haul the 116 stack (parts of one booster haha) out a ways then throw it into reverse. So there's one crawler sitting outside HB3. I'm guessing the second one is heading for the pad? I'm sure it won't take nearly as long considering that it isn't hauling 12 million pounds right now!:)
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punkboi - 27/8/2006 7:01 PM
Don't forget the launch status meeting starts in a few minutes, people. *Get ready to be disappointed.* ;)
Definitely. Oh well better safe than sorry!
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punkboi - 27/8/2006 8:01 PM
Don't forget the launch status meeting starts in a few minutes, people. *Get ready to be disappointed.* ;)
I really hope you are wrong... but I hear ya..
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too much time??? hehe well it is Sunday [shouldabeenalaunchday]
Press Brief coming up
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Oh man that was too funny!
DON'T!
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Zachstar - 27/8/2006 8:02 PM
Oh man that was too funny!
DON'T!
Don't !!!!... LOL
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ERNESTO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE.
Ref:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/271758.shtml
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Avron - this means nothing about potential KSC issues with Ernie. Check the weather thread.
"hehe well it is Sunday [shouldabeenalaunchday]"
Weather would have prohibited it today.
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Remember, they aren't supposed to be making the decision till midnight Florida time. I wouldn't expect it to be called at this briefing, I believe.
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astrobrian - 27/8/2006 5:02 PM too much time??? hehe well it is Sunday [shouldabeenalaunchday]
Press Brief coming up
Hilarious video, astrobrian... Didn't know Homer Simpson was looking forward to the launch. D'OH! :)
Chris Bergin - 27/8/2006 5:06 PM Remember, they aren't supposed to be making the decision till midnight Florida time. I wouldn't expect it to be called at this briefing, I believe.
But we should get an inkling of what their decision will be by what they say in this status update. Presumably.
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Shouldabeenlaunchday lmao! Hopefully Gerst will give us some good news! But hey...prepare for the worst and hope for the best right?!
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rdale - 27/8/2006 8:06 PM
Avron - this means nothing about potential KSC issues with Ernie. Check the weather thread.
"hehe well it is Sunday [shouldabeenalaunchday]"
Weather would have prohibited it today.
Just looking for something ... anything positive...
.. in the meantime the Call is "Don't!!!'
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nathan.moeller - 28/8/2006 2:08 AM
Shouldabeenlaunchday lmao! Hopefully Gerst will give us some good news! But hey...prepare for the worst and hope for the best right?!
It isn't Gerst this time. It's probably LeRoy Cain and Mike Leinbach.
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Still waiting...
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nathan.moeller - 27/8/2006 7:08 PM Shouldabeenlaunchday lmao! Hopefully Gerst will give us some good news! But hey...prepare for the worst and hope for the best right?!
I agree with ya there. We will probably have a much better idea where they want to go with things, but probably no definates.
Glad you all like the "Don't" :)
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DaveS - 27/8/2006 8:12 PM
nathan.moeller - 28/8/2006 2:08 AM
Shouldabeenlaunchday lmao! Hopefully Gerst will give us some good news! But hey...prepare for the worst and hope for the best right?!
It isn't Gerst this time. It's probably LeRoy Cain and Mike Leinbach.
I take that news as "they are still working the plans"
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DaveS - 27/8/2006 7:12 PM
nathan.moeller - 28/8/2006 2:08 AM
Shouldabeenlaunchday lmao! Hopefully Gerst will give us some good news! But hey...prepare for the worst and hope for the best right?!
It isn't Gerst this time. It's probably LeRoy Cain and Mike Leinbach.
Oh yeah I forgot that. C'mon Mike!
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Guys. The reports on the systems and the latest weather come AFTER this briefing.
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astrobrian - 27/8/2006 5:12 PM nathan.moeller - 27/8/2006 7:08 PM Shouldabeenlaunchday lmao! Hopefully Gerst will give us some good news! But hey...prepare for the worst and hope for the best right?!
I agree with ya there. We will probably have a much better idea where they want to go with things, but probably no definates.
Glad you all like the "Don't" :)
Isn't it "D'oh"? :)
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I think we just coined a new trademark phrase for NASA Spaceflight! If we come out of this thread with bad news about Atlantis at least we get a nice catch phrase! DON'T!!:)
So what exactly is this briefing about then if it's not about the systems and weather?
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Bout time!
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Vehicle cleared from the lightning strike!
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Alright cleared from the lightning strike! Cain sounds optimistic.
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Vehicle cleared...
Wait for tomorrow morning for call to rollback.. call by 7am
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Good shot of Ernesto. Looks like a small one but he said it's building.
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Sounding better and better, fingers and toes crossed for a 7am decision to launch
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Ok, so we'll know tomorrow morning.
It's going to need the storm to head west or slow right down, otherwise I can't see any other option but rollback.
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Decision on rollback preps pushed back to 7 am EDT tommorow.
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It's definitely gonna suck if they miss this window. Three days months down the road sounds rough.
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Get ready to wake up and be disappointed. Or heart broken depending on how much you're looking forward to seeing Brent Jett and Co. lift off. ;)
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So, the press briefing about the decision is coming at 10 am EDT?
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Significant change in storm needed to prevent rollback :(
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Still potential for more right turn curvature of the track!!! {crossing fingers, toes and eyes}
BUT!!! How much does that impact SRB retrieval?
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Well, Mike made that pretty clear. There has to be a significant change in the hurricane's path to avoid rollback.
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nathan.moeller - 27/8/2006 5:28 PM So, the press briefing about the decision is coming at 10 am EDT?
10 AM if the shuttle can fly on Tuesday, 7 AM if rollback will be called.
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Back at VAB Tuesday night... 8 days from TZero when back at pad
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Looks like a very high chance of rollback now.
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Getting way too chatty on here. People come here for news updates so let's ensure they aren't going through mountains of chatty stuff.
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Impact regarding ET 123 can be absorbed by finishing the tank at KSC if the contigency time is used
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if they rollback whats the chances of getting back out to use this window, or is it game over?
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gordo - 27/8/2006 7:41 PM
if they rollback whats the chances of getting back out to use this window, or is it game over?
It'll take some serious discussions with the Russians to see if they can push the window into the September 8-13 timeframe which would mean pushing the Russian Soyuz landing into a dead-of-night descent. Russia wants to avoid it because they just switched back to civilian landing management and the teams are pretty new, so of course they'd like to have daylight for recovery operations. NASA can make the window but it will be a close call and it will be up to the Russians if a rollback is ordered.
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Question on moving the Russian launch...
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The briefing tomorrow will be interesting, especially with the outcome of talks with the Russians over the respective launch windows.
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so bascially this storm has to shift more left to avoid the rollback that is my understanding am i right?
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Exactly. That or it has to weaken substantially but Leinbach said that's highly unlikely. If anything happens it has to do so tonight.
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TFGQ - 27/8/2006 8:54 PM
so bascially this storm has to shift more left to avoid the rollback that is my understanding am i right?
or tighten the Right Turn
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TFGQ - 27/8/2006 7:54 PM
so bascially this storm has to shift more left to avoid the rollback that is my understanding am i right?
In a "significant" way.
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Great work from the KSC team to get the vehicle cleared... Sounds like there was only one item that stopped Monday as an option
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Well ladies n gents that's it. Keep those fingers, toes and eyes crossed until tomorrow! Go Atlantis!
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Chris Bergin - 27/8/2006 2:43 PM
Mark's on our respective teleboxes :)
Just in-case he was missed... :)
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I hope the Russians give Atlantis a chance later in September.
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Jamie Young - 27/8/2006 11:07 PM
I hope the Russians give Atlantis a chance later in September.
If they do, you know it will cost us some big bucks. They haven't done much to help us without our throwing dollars at them. We will hide it in some diplomatic verbiage, I'm sure.
Cheers,
Larry
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Rocket Nut - 28/8/2006 10:22 AM
They haven't done much to help us without our throwing dollars at them.
I don't think its nice to say they are interested only in bucks... and I also think they did a lot for the ISS since the shuttle fleet was grounded post-Columbia.
Just let's hope they can relax the night-landing rule and nothing bad happens with EXP 13 re-entry.
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Rocket Nut - 28/8/2006 12:22 PM
If they do, you know it will cost us some big bucks. They haven't done much to help us without our throwing dollars at them
I do not understand why you are thinking so bad of Russians... :(
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anik - 28/8/2006 4:56 AM
Rocket Nut - 28/8/2006 12:22 PM
If they do, you know it will cost us some big bucks. They haven't done much to help us without our throwing dollars at them
I do not understand why you are thinking so bad of Russians... :(
I'm not thinking bad of Russians. I'm just stating a fact. I am referring to the management of the Russian side of the ISS. In the past, they have squeezed dollars from NASA when NASA had little choice. From documents I have seen, they have charged us more than they have charged tourists for soyuz flights. Kinda kicking NASA when they were down.
Again, not against the Russians...just ISS management and their attitude towards funding when NASA has needed help.
Cheers,
Larry
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GioFX - 28/8/2006 3:39 AM
I don't think its nice to say they are interested only in bucks... and I also think they did a lot for the ISS since the shuttle fleet was grounded post-Columbia.
I totally agree.
STS 115 is a freight mission.
Soyouz is a crew mission.
If any bad problem during Soyouz mission, it's the death of ISS.
If STS 115 is postponed ... nothing more than a new delay.
Just let's hope they can relax the night-landing rule and nothing bad happens with EXP 13 re-entry.
During post-Columbia period, Progress as well as Soyouz have done their job. Russian's safety rules were applied, and nothing bad happened.
I don't know if they can change that rules in a so short delay.
So .... please ... don't put any banana peel under the russian's shoe ;)
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Rocket Nut - 28/8/2006 1:05 PM
In the past, they have squeezed dollars from NASA when NASA had little choice. From documents I have seen, they have charged us more than they have charged tourists for soyuz flights
You have forgotten, that we have performed our obligations... The first eleven Soyuz flights were free-of-charge for the American astronauts... Therefore we are not obliged to do it free of charge, since 2006... The payment for flight is more, because training of the flight engineer is more complex, than of the tourist... Also flight longer and need of preparation of the backup...
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anik - 28/8/2006 6:07 AM
Rocket Nut - 28/8/2006 1:05 PM
In the past, they have squeezed dollars from NASA when NASA had little choice. From documents I have seen, they have charged us more than they have charged tourists for soyuz flights
You have forgotten, that we have performed our obligations... .
Anik, If I have offended you, I sincerely apologize. I didn't mean to restart the cold war here. Just stating a few historical facts. One of my college degrees is in History...I just can't help myself.. :)
Chris, If you want to delete my posts, please feel free to do so. This issue is moot if they rollback any way.
Meanwhile, it looks like I had better start getting prepared for a hurricane...latest forecast shows it coming almost overhead my house...
Cheers,
Larry
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From Spaceflightnow.com( http://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts115/status.html ):
"1048 GMT (6:48 a.m. EDT)
NASA officials this morning ordered rollback preparations to begin at launch pad 39B."
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I was thinking is there a way to get Atlantis to use STS-116's launch date for a quicker way to launch?
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MarkD - 28/8/2006 1:34 PM
I was thinking is there a way to get Atlantis to use STS-116's launch date for a quicker way to launch?
STS-116/12A.1 is currently scheduled for launch on December 14. And that is the only launch date in December that has daylight during launch.