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General Discussion => Polls Section => Topic started by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/07/2016 09:25 AM

Title: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/07/2016 09:25 AM
The next big reusability step is to, er, actually re-use something!

I'm not interested in any SpaceX test flights with a re-used booster, there needs to be a paying customer. Also the payload must be put into the intended orbit by SpaceX. However, it doesn't matter whether or not the re-used booster is again recovered.

Having to keep the poll open only for a little while in case SpaceX makes any announcement soon.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Chalmer on 05/07/2016 10:00 AM
I dont think they will be able to re-launch a landed stage this year (with a costumer). They simply have so many launches to launch and finish crew dragon, that i dont think there is time. I hope I am wrong though.

I do think there is a better chance of seeing a test flight this year, and then a revenue generating one next year.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/07/2016 10:22 AM
I'm feeling optimistic and voted October. I think SES will go for it and agree a deal to re-use a booster for one of their launches scheduled later this year.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: nicp on 05/07/2016 11:07 AM
I voted September because Elon said June I think (add a little delay..).
I wonder if they will re-use an engine before an entire stage - but perhaps that would prove nothing (and provide no new data) given the number of test firings and so on the engines already do.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: hamerad on 05/07/2016 11:13 AM
Voted August, usually would give more time slip to due elongated time but he has said he is trying to recalibrate his estimates.

As for the engine reuse, are we 100% sure that they haven't already reused an engine? after all their were a few missing from the Orbcomm stage when we last saw a photo of it. 
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: The Amazing Catstronaut on 05/07/2016 11:20 AM
I voted September because I miss-clicked like an ass.  I wanted to say June.

I think they're actually starting to get their timescales down and it's deceptive to assume they'll be constantly pushing to the right with anything other than crew dragon.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Space Lizard on 05/07/2016 11:57 AM
For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: redliox on 05/07/2016 12:04 PM
November here; so far it looks promising although there may be a flight delay or extra one to test procedures.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/07/2016 12:45 PM
For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

Yes, certainly makes sense. Of course such a flight is still some way of and I think SpaceX won't want yo wait that long. They clearly won't re-fly unless they are very confident, but if they are confident then they'll look for a customer. If they can't find one for a first re-use then inflight abort might be a good demonstration flight to increase customer confidence, but all indications so far seem to be that there is customer interest. I think the issue will be how much the discount is for the first re-use!

IIRC correctly SES said they'd want half price? If I was SpaceX I'd take that offer. A successful re-use must go a long way to start persuading other customers to get on-board.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: atomic on 05/07/2016 01:06 PM
I voted september 2016 to get a nice symmetrical distribution.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Lar on 05/07/2016 01:38 PM
They're saying June. I applied an optimistic amount of time dilation and got September, then applied fan boy logic (one of my core competencies, just ask Jim) to get August.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: nadreck on 05/07/2016 02:33 PM
I voted September to be consistent with my vote in the other related poll (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39434.0) suggesting that the first core to be reflown would be CRS-9. As well, I am pretty certain their is currently a September scheduled launch that involves a customer who really wants to be the first (SES-10).
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Mader Levap on 05/07/2016 03:32 PM
Voted Q1 2017. No one yet lost bet on SpaceX being late.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: alang on 05/08/2016 06:20 PM
Surely the insurance companies will influence this. Is the risk associated with the first flight uninsurable?
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/08/2016 07:27 PM
Surely the insurance companies will influence this. Is the risk associated with the first flight uninsurable?

SES claimed that their insurers said they would be guided by whether SES were comfortable with re-use. So SES didn't expect insurance to be a big issue.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: CraigLieb on 05/08/2016 10:39 PM
One year later than Elon says is a fair guess... 2nd Q 2017
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: philw1776 on 05/09/2016 06:30 PM
Voted Q1 2017. No one yet lost bet on SpaceX being late.

Smart money!
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Toast on 05/09/2016 06:36 PM
For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

I was under the impression the F9 for the in-flight abort would be a custom core with only three engines (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/spacex-tanking-tests-in-flight-abort-falcon-9/). Is that still expected to be the case, or is there new information on this?
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: RDMM2081 on 05/09/2016 06:36 PM
If a re-used core were used for the in flight abort test, would that count as a paying customer? It is a contract milestone paid for by NASA...
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/09/2016 06:50 PM
If a re-used core were used for the in flight abort test, would that count as a paying customer? It is a contract milestone paid for by NASA...

But it's not orbital I'm afraid!
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Kansan52 on 05/09/2016 07:00 PM
For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

I was under the impression the F9 for the in-flight abort would be a custom core with only three engines (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/spacex-tanking-tests-in-flight-abort-falcon-9/). Is that still expected to be the case, or is there new information on this?

Haven't heard anything to change from the three engine core.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Poole Amateur on 05/09/2016 08:25 PM
I voted Q2 2017. Pure fan boy that I am, I would rather they really study the returned stages to optimise reliability and concentrate on getting the manifest backlog sorted. A re-flight in 12 months will still be an impressive achievement, but a bunch of on time and flawless flights, with a load of returned cores will to my mind be even more impressive. Still a load of stuff to get excited about...Falcon Heavy, Dragonfly and Dragon 2...I can wait a little while for a successful re-flight :)
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: llanitedave on 05/10/2016 10:06 PM
It's huge progress IMO that no one voted "Never"!
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: vapour_nudge on 05/10/2016 10:47 PM
It's huge progress IMO that no one voted "Never"!
Yes, it was so tempting to vote never just to prove you wrong but I'm not THAT heartless or snarky 😇
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/14/2016 09:50 AM
Thank you all for joining in the poll. A good spread of opinions, although all believe SpaceX are going to be successful and the great majority think in the next 12 months. Can't wait!
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/15/2016 03:00 AM
Cross-posting as very relevant to this poll:

Tweet from Elon today stating that SpaceX still intends to refly F9-0023-S1 this summer:

Quote
Elon Musk @elonmusk
3:03 PM - 14 May 2016

@r_SpaceX @reddit will do another AMA just before reflight of the rocket in a few months
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/31/2016 05:22 AM
Update on SpaceX's plans for booster re-use:

Quote
SpaceX: We'll be meeting w/ insurance underwriters in coming weeks to walk them through our reusable-stage certification process.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737469017896542208 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737469017896542208)

Quote
SpaceX: Reused stage to fly, likely on commercial mission, by end of year. We've been approached by couple of customers who want to be 1st.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737447211009613824 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737447211009613824)
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/08/2016 07:45 PM
If you voted June, July or August looks like you're out of luck:

First realistic date from Elon?

Quote
Fourth rocket arrives in the hangar. Aiming for first reflight in Sept/Oct.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480 (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480)
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: MattMason on 06/08/2016 08:30 PM
If you voted June, July or August looks like you're out of luck:

First realistic date from Elon?

Quote
Fourth rocket arrives in the hangar. Aiming for first reflight in Sept/Oct.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480 (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480)

That matches up not only with the possibility of use for the SES-10 commercial sat launch, penned in for September, but possibly launching from LC-39A.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: the_other_Doug on 06/08/2016 09:39 PM
Well, I voted back when the poll was first posted, and I voted for October of this year.  For what specific reason, I don't recall.  But whatever it was, I bet I'm close...
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/09/2016 07:09 PM
Cross posting, looking good for this year:

Not sure where to post this:

Quote
Shotwell: “a lot of interest” from customers on flying on reused Falcon 9. May fly two of them this year. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763060451680722944 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763060451680722944)
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Kaputnik on 08/30/2016 09:08 AM
Confirmed as Q4 2016:
http://www.ses.com/4233325/news/2016/22407810
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: CraigLieb on 08/30/2016 03:44 PM
Confirmed as Q4 2016:
http://www.ses.com/4233325/news/2016/22407810

NET
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/28/2016 09:27 AM
Now tentatively January, presumably provided F9 RTF is by end of this year:

Quote
SES: Based on SpaceX’s return-to-flight plans, we expect SES-10 to launch on reused Falcon 9 in January. Payload for next Falcon 9 still TBD

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791914581065019392 (https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791914581065019392)

Edit: report of same SES remarks by Peter B. de Selding

Quote
SES(6): CFO says SES-10 tentatively set for January launch on SpaceX Falcon 9. (This mission will inaugurate reuse of Falcon 9 1st stage.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/791915233677758465 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/791915233677758465)
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/17/2017 10:33 AM
Now the RTF is successfully achieved :D time to return thoughts to when first booster re-use might be:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2h2 hours ago
@SES_Satellites still intends SES-10 (5,300kg/GTO) as 1st @SpaceX mission using previously flown Falcon 9 1st stage. Planned Q1 launch.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/820971443605434368 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/820971443605434368)
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/16/2017 08:22 PM
SES-10 is still down for Mar 27th (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42544.msg1655131#msg1655131) but as Chris says a big ask.

So those of you how picked Q1 2017 may yet be right; otherwise I suspect Q2 might sneak it.

I'm discounting SES-10 launch failing. SpaceX are not going to launch unless they are very confident.
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/30/2017 11:18 PM
Well congratulations to SpaceX, SES and all those of you who picked Q1 2017. You had a whole day spare!

I don't think we'll have to wait too long before another booster is successfully re-used  :D
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Kaputnik on 04/13/2017 10:05 PM
I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: Comga on 04/13/2017 10:17 PM
I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?

My opinion, and it is only that, is that it's less about who was right but what the consensus was.
The peak of the distribution was 3-4 months out.
The reality was about 10 months, 2 or 3 times the consensus.
That's just what happens with a failure. 
Title: Re: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/14/2017 05:44 AM
Yes without the failure I think SES-10 would have been October or November. That's a bit later than the distribution peak, which I think means insufficient allowance was made for Elon time dilation.

I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?

The prize for being correct is, as usual, bragging rights - which I see you've already claimed  :D