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SpaceX Vehicles and Missions => SpaceX Missions Section => Topic started by: starhawk92 on 05/04/2016 05:30 pm

Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/04/2016 05:30 pm
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0)
This table is now being maintained by gongora


Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0

Sites:
      C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site ion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ---- (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43199.0)
2015-12-22F91019LORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38149.0)LEO1892C-4020
2016-01-17  1042/-8F9.SJason-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29457.0)LEO553V-4E21
2016-03-04  1835/-5F9.SSES-9 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34077.0)GTO5271C-4022
2016-04-08  1643/-4F91021.1SCRS-8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39350.0)LEO~9kC-4023
2016-05-06  0121/-4F91022SJCSAT-14 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33778.0)GTO4696C-4024
2016-05-27  1740/-4F91023.1SThaicom 8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40256.0)GTO3025C-4025
2016-06-15  1029/-4F9.SEutelsat 117W B & ABS-2A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.0)GTO4200C-4026
2016-07-18  0045/-4F9.LCRS-9 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40310.0)LEO~9kC-4027
2016-08-14  0126/-4F9.SJCSAT-16 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40373.0)GTO~4600C-4028
2016-09-01  0907/-4F9.N/AAMOS-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.0)(destroyed in pad test)GTO5500C-4029
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031LCRS 10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0)LEO~9kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0)GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0)GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0)LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035LCRS 11 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)LEO~9kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0)GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036SIridium NEXT (Flight 2) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)GTO6761C-39A39
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-08-14~1400/-4F91039LCRS 12 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42878.0)LEO~9kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1150/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)SSO475V-4E41
2017-08-lateF9.LAir Force X-37B OTV-5 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)LEO5400C42
2017-09F9.?SES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)GTO5400C43
2017-09F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 3) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43217.0)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-Q4F9.SKoreasat-5A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)GTO3500C .
2017-10F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)GTO4000C.
2017-Q4F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-11F9.LCRS 13 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.0)LEO~9kC.
2017-Q4F9..Hispasat 1FGTO~5kC(60)
2017-Q4H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42705.0)..C-39A(50)
2017-12F9..Bangabandhu (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)GTO~3500C61
2017F9..Paz & co-passenger (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)SSO1400V-4E(62)
2017-2018F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q1F9.SSES-14 (NASA GOLD payload) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.0)GTO4200C.
2018F9.SEs'hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)GTO~3kC.
2018-02F9.LCRS 14LEO~9kC.
2018-02F9.?CCtCap DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q1F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-H1H.LLSArabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)GTO~6kC-39A.
2018-03-20F9..NASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)HEO325C .
2018-03F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-04F9.LCRS 15LEO~9kC.
2018-H1F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-H1F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C-39A.
2018-H1F9..Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-H1F9..Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-H1H.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-05F9..USAF GPS III A-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33921.0)MEO3880C.
2018-06F9..Telkom 4GTO.C(68)
2018F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-midF9..Iridium NEXT 8/GRACE-FO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)SSO~6000V-4E.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passenger (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)GTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS 16LEO~9kC.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)SSO1400V-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS 17LEO~9kC.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q4F9..GiSat-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)GTO~6kC/B.
2018-H2F9..Spaceflight GTO-1(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-H2F9..Spaceflight GTO-2(200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS 18LEO~9kC.
2018-2019H.???SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42421.0)TLI~10k?C-39A(99)
2019F9..CRS 19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS IIIA-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)MEO3880C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020F..Inmarsat 6 F1GTO.C/B(65)
2020-H1F9..Spaceflight GTO-C(200x36k/km)GTO.C/B(70)
2020-H1F9..Spaceflight SSO-D (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C/B(69)
2021-04F9..SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)LEO2000V-4E.
TBDF..InmarsatGTO.C/B.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
TBDF..EutelSat....

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.0)
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0) / Public Core Spotting (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.0)
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0)
Wikipedia Falcon Launches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
Viewing flights from Vandenberg (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.0)
Upcoming SpaceX Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1690190#msg1690190)

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(60) Hispasat 1f also called Hispasat 30W-6
(62) Paz (Hisdesat) post in manifest thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1650252#msg1650252) / article in DW (http://www.dw.com/ru/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA-%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9-%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%83%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA-%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB-%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC-%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%84%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%80%D1%84-%D0%B8-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B/a-37800534)
(65) Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-juggling-two-launches-says-spacex-to-return-to-flight-in-december/) / Airbus contract (https://airbusdefenceandspace.com/newsroom/news-and-features/airbus-defence-and-space-signs-contract-with-inmarsat-to-build-two-next-generation-mobile-communications-satellites/) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/inmarsat-6.htm) / Space Intel mention (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/interview-rupert-pearce-ceo-inmarsat)
(68) Telkom 4 links (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1680958#msg1680958) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/telkom-4.htm)
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 (http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2016/02/10/dankberg-viasat-3-satellites-will-have-more-capacity-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/) SpaceNews 2/10/2016 (http://spacenews.com/viasat-details-1-4-billion-global-ka-band-satellite-broadband-strategy-to-oust-incumbent-players/) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428)
(99) SpaceX announcement (http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year)

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1655839#msg1655839) - EELV (https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=925e366fba301e452496dfd442d6a800&tab=core&_cview=0), First 5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43266.0)

L2 notes on manifest:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127) [May 16, 2017]
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.msg1701815#msg1701815 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.msg1701815#msg1701815) [July 12, 2017]
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42426.msg1702614#msg1702614 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42426.msg1702614#msg1702614) [July 15, 2017]

Recent Edits:
Jul 21  Moved CRS-12 to August 14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43347.msg1704861#msg1704861).  Moved DM-1 to February 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1704261#msg1704261).
Jul 19  Removed Red Dragon (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42615.msg1703926#msg1703926)
Jul 11  Moved SAOCOM-1A to March 2018 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1701557#msg1701557), SAOCOM-1B to 2019, removed specific months from future Iridium flights
Jun 30  Moved SES-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.msg1697257#msg1697257) to 2018-Q1
Jun 28  Moved OTV-5 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.msg1696121#msg1696121) to August 28.
Jun 27  Removed exact date from OTV-5.  Moved Formosat-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.msg1695687#msg1695687) to August 24.  Moved Iridium Flight 3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.msg1695687#msg1695687) to September.  Moved SES-11 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1695565#msg1695565) to September.  Moved Koreasat-5A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1695845#msg1695845) to Q4.  Moved PSN-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1695872#msg1695872) to mid-2018.  Moved Intelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43211.msg1695815#msg1695815) to July 2.  Removed ViaSat-3 Asia.  Marked Iridium Flight 2 complete.
Jun 23  Moved CRS-12 to Aug 10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1693642#msg1693642).  Marked BulgariaSat 1 complete.
Jun 22  Moved Arabsat 6A before STP-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43197.msg1692778#msg1692778), both early/H1 2018
Jun 17  OTV-5 August 17 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.msg1692388#msg1692388).  Changed table format, now being maintained by gongora.

All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/04/2016 05:35 pm
The biggest question is if we know for sure that the RTLS pad/infrastructure will be in place in time for Formosat/Sherpa and how soon we might get a launch date for the west coast.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lars-J on 05/04/2016 06:53 pm
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: sewebster on 05/04/2016 07:08 pm
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

This new thread is started by starhawk92 so now he can edit the first post in place, and update the subject line...

edit: maybe not... see below...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/04/2016 08:39 pm
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks.  Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate.  Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread.  Senior Members and Moderators know about this.  If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!   ::)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 05/04/2016 09:18 pm
Probably going to rename this thread and lock (3).... by having the lead post be Starhawk92's they can edit the post similar to how the abort scrubs is handled and it is easy to find since it's the lead.

(https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0 is thread three)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: arnezami on 05/04/2016 09:40 pm
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/jcsat-14.htm)) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission (http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws.exe/prod/ib/forms/reports/swr031b.hts?q_set=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number/%3D/SESMFS2015103100788&prepare=&column=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number)

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: sewebster on 05/04/2016 09:56 pm
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks.  Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate.  Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread.  Senior Members and Moderators know about this.  If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!   ::)

Oh, a separate thread for each update? This doesn't seem consistent with what Lar wrote below (and he's a mod).

edit: I meant below the quote, so, above this!  ;D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 05/04/2016 09:58 pm
I guess I should talk to starhawk92 about this but I assume they were going to edit the header post with updates. NOT a separate thread for each update.... that's way too many threads.

Edit: All good, that's how it will be, the header post will have the latest. I put a link back to thread 3 in the header as well.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: friendly3 on 05/04/2016 10:08 pm
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/jcsat-14.htm)) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission (http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws.exe/prod/ib/forms/reports/swr031b.hts?q_set=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number/%3D/SESMFS2015103100788&prepare=&column=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number)

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)

Nice find, arnezami. You would make a good detective.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 05/04/2016 10:38 pm
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/jcsat-14.htm)) is 4696.2 kg
Props to Kabloona, who estimated it at 4500kg.

So, definitely lighter than SES-9, will be interesting to see how this affects the recovery profile (or not).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: arnezami on 05/05/2016 07:38 am
For comparison: on space.skyrocket.de there is also a manifest for the Falcon 9 v1.2 (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau_det/falcon-9_v1-2.htm) and for the Falcon Heavy (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau_det/falcon-9-heavy.htm).

When you click on the links for the payloads you get nice information and references to sources.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/05/2016 04:10 pm
This article was interesting from the standpoint that MDA executives see a trend starting that has two prongs: GSO sats are getting heavier (those not on contract yet) and the LEO constellation sats are multiplying rapidly.
http://spacenews.com/mda-corp-says-commercial-satcom-bidding-is-at-record-high-level/ (http://spacenews.com/mda-corp-says-commercial-satcom-bidding-is-at-record-high-level/)

For SpaceX this implication is that there will be an upswing in use of FH for GSO sats and a possible increase in launches out of VAFB for commercial customers probably using the now heavier LEO capable F9. Also the impact on the manifest would be that the LEO constellations would probably launch sooner than the new heavier GSO sats. I would not expect the wave of larger GSO to be NET 2019 and more likely 2020. They would probably grow in size to be up to the capabilities of a Vulcan/ACES or Ariane 64 whichever is lower. This size would also put them at the edge or beyond F9 capabilities meaning a lot more FH launches in the 2019 and latter time frame.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Tass on 05/05/2016 05:52 pm
Four missions in May?! Oh that would be great if it were true.

Half of that will still be great. And just one will be fine (as long as it is followed by another in June).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: pericynthion on 05/05/2016 09:33 pm
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mnelson on 05/06/2016 06:38 am
On April 29 spaceflightnow.com:
"Falcon 9/Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS 2A delayed; Falcon 9/Thaicom 8 moved forward"

They've swapped the order of these flights. Thaicom 8 as "late May" and Eutelsat 117 in June.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/06/2016 06:51 am
Time for another update edit and more green text!
Whoo Hoo!
2016-05-06  F9(24)       OCISLY      JCSAT-14 [2]              GTO  4696    LC40
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/06/2016 08:05 am
Update in a few hours, I need to try to get some sleep before the daily grind begins!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 05/06/2016 03:34 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: schaban on 05/06/2016 04:18 pm
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/06/2016 04:36 pm
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.

Sorry, forgot to reply to this one:  schaban has it right.  Just waiting to find out about RTLS vs JRTI on the west coast.

Edit/gongora: Below is a backup of starhawk92's table format from June 21, 2017

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0

List of past launches can be found here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0)

Launch Windows, if known, are in the footnotes.

NET DATE    LV  REUSE     ID    RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  --  -----   ------  ----  -----------------------       ---  ------  -----
2016-05-06  F9   24             OCIS  JCSAT-14  [4]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-05-27  F9   25      B1023  OCIS  Thaicom 8 [5]                 GTO  3100    LC40
2016-06-15  F9   26             OCIS  Eutelsat 117 West B [6] &     GTO  1960    LC40
                                      ABS-2A [6]                         2240
2016-07-18  F9   27             RTLS  Dragon (CRS-9) [7]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-08-14  F9   28             OCIS  JCSAT-16 [8]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-09-03  F9   29             PAD   AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40
2017-01-14  F9   30      B1029  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-02-19  F9   31      B1031  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-10) [16]          LEO  10000   LC39A
2017-03-16  F9   32     1030    EXPD  Echostar 23 [11]              GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-03-30  F9   23-1   1021.2  OCIS  SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A
2017-05-01  F9   33     1032    RTLS  NROL-76 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0) [18]                  LEO          LC39A
2017-05-15  F9          1034    EXPD  Inmarsat 5-F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0) [21]            GTO  6086    LC39A
2017-06-03  F9          1035    RTLS  Dragon (CRS-11) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0) [20]          LEO  10000   LC39A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-06-23  F9          1029.2  OCIS  BulgariaSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0) [22]            GTO  3669    LC39A
2017-06-25  F9          1036    JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0) [19]  PLR  860x10  LC4E
2017-07     F9                  EXPD  Intelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0) [17]             GTO  ~6000   LC39A       
2017-07     F9                        Formosat-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)   [13]             SSO  525+    LC4E
2017-07     F9                  OCIS  SES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0) [15]      GTO  5400    LC39A
2017-08-01  F9                  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-12) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42878.0)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-08     F9                  OCIS  Air Force X-37B OTV-5 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)         LEO  5400    KSC/CC   
2017-08-24  F9                  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)       PLR  860x10  LC4E       
2017-09     F9                  OCIS  Koreasat 5A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)                   GTO  3500    LC39A
2017        FH       (C)        OCIS  Falcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0)                   LC39A
                25-1 (B) B1023  RTLS
                     (B)        RTLS
2017-10     F9                        SES-16/GovSat (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)                 GTO  4000    LC39A
2017-10     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2017-10     F9                        PAZ (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)                           PLR  1350    LC4E
2017-10     F9                        SAOCOM 1A                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2017-11     F9                        Dragon (CRS-13) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.0)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017        FH                        US Air Force (STP-2) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)          MEO          LC39A
2017-12     F9                        SES-14 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.0) / GOLD                 GTO  4200    LC40
2017-12     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2017-12     F9                  RTLS  Bangabandhu-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)                 GTO  ~3500   LC40       
2017-12     F9                        Hispasat 1f                   GTO  ~5000   LC40
2018-01     F9                        Spaceflight SSO-A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)             SSO          LC4E
2018-01     F9                  OCIS  Es’hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)                     GTO  ~3k     LC40
2018-01     F9                        PSN VI  + US Govt (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)             GTO  5000    LC40
2018-02     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2018-02     F9                        Dragon (CRS-14)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-03     F9                  RTLS  CCTCAP DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2018-03-20  F9                        NASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)                   HEO  325     LC40
2018-04     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2018-04     F9                        Dragon (CRS-15)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018        F9                        CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)      SUB          LC39A
2018-05     F9                  RTLS  CCTCAP DM2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2018-05     F9                        USAF GPS III A-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33921.0)              MEO  3680    LC40
2018-06     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 8) & (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)     PLR  860x5   LC4E
                                      GRACE-FO
2018-06     F9                        Telkom 4                      GTO  ?       ?
2018-07     F9                        Spaceflight GTO-1             GTO  ?       ?
2018-07     F9                        Spaceflight GTO-2             GTO  ?       ?
2018-08     F9                        Dragon (CRS-16)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-10     F9                        Spaceflight SSO-B             SSO  ?       LC4E
2018-10     F9                        GiSAT-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)                       GTO          LC40
2018-10     F                         Lunar Dragon                  TLI  10000   LC39A
2018-10     F9                        Dragon (CRS-17)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-12     F9                        Dragon (CRS-18)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018        F9                        Telstar 18 Vantage /          GTO  >5400   ?
                                      Apstar-5C
2018        F9                        Telstar 19 Vantage            GTO  >5400   ?
2018        FH                        Arabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)                    GTO          LC39A
2018        F9                        RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)        SSO  1400    LC4E
2018        F9                        OHB SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)                   SSO  ~2100   LC4E
2018        F9                        SAOCOM 1B                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2019-02     F9                        GPS III A-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)                   MEO  3680    LC40
2019-05     F9                        Dragon (CRS-19)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019-07     F9                        Spaceflight SSO-C             SSO  ?       LC4E
2019        F9                        CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                        CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                        Dragon (CRS-20)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                        OHB SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)                 SSO  ~1800x2 LC4E
2020        F9                        Spaceflight SSO-D             SSO  ?       LC4E
2020        F9                        Spaceflight GTO-C             GTO  ?       ?
2020        F9                        Inmarsat 6 F1                 GTO  6400    LC39A
2020        FH                        ViaSat 3                      GTO  6400    LC39A
2021-04     F9                        SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)                          SSO          LC4E
2020-05     FH                        Red Dragon (Mars Surface)     TMI  11000   LC39A
TBD         F9                        Bigelow Aerospace                          LC40
TBD         F9                        Eutelsat unknown   


MASS: kilograms
PAD:  LC40 is at Cape Canaveral; LC39A at Kennedy Space Center; LC4E at Vandenberg
Successful
Unsuccessful
Mars!!!!
Moon!!!!
[A] Google GMT Clock (https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=UTC+clock)
[3] CRS-8 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39537.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39350.0#lastPost) / Return (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40274.0#lastPost)
[4] JCSAT-14 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39843.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33778.0#lastPost) / Pre-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/03/spacex-prepares-two-missions-mcgregor/) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/05/falcon-9-jcsat-14-launch/)
[5] Thaicom-8 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40182.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40256.0) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/05/falcon-9-thaicom-8-launch/)
[6] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40395.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.0#lastPost) / Pre-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-readies-falcon-9-reuse-testing/) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-falcon-9-dual-satellite-launch/)
[7] CRS-9 Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40577.0#lastPost) / Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40310.0#lastPost) / Static Fire Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/07/spacex-static-fire-falcon-9-rocket-crs-9-launch/) / Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/07/spacex-falcon-9-crs-9-dragon-launch/) / Return (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40977.0#lastPost)
[8] JCSAT-16 Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40769.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40373.0#lastPost) / Pre-launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/08/spacex-static-fire-test-jcsat-16s-falcon-9/) / Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/08/spacex-second-jcsat-launch-via-falcon-9/)
[9] AMOS-6 Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40868.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.0#lastPost) 
[10] Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) Update (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41751.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0#lastPost)
[11] EchoStar 23 Updates / Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0#lastPost)
[12] SES-10 Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0#lastPost)
[13] Formosat 5/Sherpa Updates /Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0#lastPost)
[14] Sherpa SSO Updates / contents to be delivered (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.msg1565560#msg1565560)
[15] SES-11/Echostar 105 Updates / Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0#lastPost)
[16] CRS-10 Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0#lastPost)
[17] Intelsat 35e Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0#lastPost) Launch Window 19:35-20:35 (Eastern)
[18] NROL-76 Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0#lastPost)
[19] Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0#lastPost) Launch Time 1324 PDT
[20] CRS-11 Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0#lastPost)
[21] Inmarsat 5 F4 Updates / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0#lastPost)
[22] Bulgariasat-1 Launch Window 14:10 – 16:10 (Eastern)


Last 10 Edits:
Jun 06  edit/gongora: Slipped Bulgariasat 2 days.  Added X-37B in August 2017
Jun 05  edit/gongora: Marked CRS-11 successful.  Removed speculative Mars mission dates.
Jun 02  edit/gongora: Removed Eutelsat Quantum
May 25  edit/gongora: Moved Iridium Flight 2 to June 25 (1325 PDT).  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 1.
May 24  edit/gongora: Moved Koreasat-5A to August (educated guess), CCiCap In-Flight Abort to 2018
         removed estimated launch month from FH Demo and STP-2
May 23  edit/gongora: Moved Eutelsat Quantum to 2019
May 21  edit/gongora: Added Telkom 4, June 2018
May 20  edit/gongora: Moved CCtCap DM-1 to March 2018
May 17  edit/gongora: Moved PSN-6 to 2018
May 14  edit/gongora: updated masses (Telstar, Es'hail-2, Hispasat, GiSat) and core numbers for multiple missions 
May 04  edit/gongora: Moved SSO-A to 2018

All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/06/2016 05:20 pm
Spaceflight Now shows JCSAT-16 launch in August instead of September.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Miker66 on 05/07/2016 03:56 pm
Also, Es'hail-2 has moved to 1Q 2017 https://www.eshailsat.qa/en/satellites/index/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Miker66 on 05/07/2016 04:04 pm
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: sewebster on 05/07/2016 04:20 pm
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

NROL-37?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: francesco nicoli on 05/07/2016 04:22 pm
test-fly of one of the used stages?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/07/2016 04:40 pm
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

You are reading too much into it, and your speculation is indeed wild.  It just says that the mission after Thaicom 8 hasn't been officially announced.  SpaceX isn't officially announcing their launch schedule more than one mission ahead right now except for CRS flights.  If the Eutelsat/ABS payload is ready next then it would be flown next.  You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Miker66 on 05/07/2016 04:40 pm
NROL-37?

No, not NROL-37. The text I quoted was from the Falcon 9 section. You can see it here: http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Miker66 on 05/07/2016 04:43 pm
You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/07/2016 04:58 pm
You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.

Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month?  They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad.  They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something.  And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days.  Not gonna happen.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Miker66 on 05/07/2016 05:29 pm

Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month?  They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad.  They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something.  And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days.  Not gonna happen.

OK, I bow to your superior knowledge of the status of 39A. So assuming you're right and 39A isn't an option, it would have to be 4 from LC40 in about 30 days - one every 10 days or so.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/09/2016 01:18 pm
test-fly of one of the used stages?

Is there room?  5/26 and 6/27 means a possible opportunity around 6/13, but that's packing them pretty tightly, right?  and wouldn't things at McGregor have to be a lot more interesting by now/ery soon to support three launches in June?

As of this post, the retesting thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40086.0) has no record of the CRS-8 Core-23 being retested.

If 6/13 is an opportunity, then there should be a payload for it arriving at the cape late this month, correct?

For these reasons, the manifest does not reflect this information.  But it certainly has all of our attention, methinks!!

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: John Alan on 05/09/2016 05:31 pm
2016-06     F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B &     GTO  5500    LC40
                                     Asia Broadcast

Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...  ???
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...  ;)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: LastStarFighter on 05/09/2016 07:50 pm
2016-06     F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B &     GTO  5500    LC40
                                     Asia Broadcast

Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...  ???
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...  ;)

Where did 5500kg come from? I thought this was a basic red light of the previous Eutelsat/ABS dual launch that was 4200kg.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/09/2016 08:09 pm
Can we agree on 4800kg?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutelsat_115_West_B
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: LastStarFighter on 05/09/2016 08:23 pm
Can we agree on 4800kg?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutelsat_115_West_B

That says 2205kg for Eutelsat and 1954kg for ABS. So 4159kg for both. You sure you're not looking at lbm and not kg? Or am I missing something?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: John Alan on 05/09/2016 08:26 pm
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up (to Geo) will NOT be recovered at times during the next 9 months...  ;)
They have a crispy stage now to look at... and put engineering changes into the build schedule later this year...
Meanwhile... gotta fly what they got already late into build to meet customer needs...

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deruch on 05/09/2016 08:32 pm
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page (http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities) lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 05/09/2016 08:42 pm
Discussing whether stages were damaged or whether engines are reusable/thrown away is off topic for a manifest thread
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: John Alan on 05/09/2016 08:44 pm
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page (http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities) lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".


Agreed... those are effective 2018 specs... and they believe (as do I) they can hit that target in time...
But the crispy stage coming in tonight with the panels yanked off in a hurry says they found a limit... (IMHO)
Engineering changes likely coming to TPS... along with the boost uprate planned...

My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...  ???
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 05/09/2016 10:58 pm

My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...  ???

I think it is more than safe to assume that SpaceX will at least try to land S1 on OCISLY even if it crashes and puts a whole in the ship (see SES-9). Doesn't mean a successful landing, but I expect we'll see a landing attempt every launch. If the weather is super bad or OCISLY can't make it out to sea in time, then I think we'll see a water landing. More data == better models.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: LouScheffer on 05/09/2016 11:19 pm
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page (http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities) lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
5500 kg makes sense.  They delivered SES-9 (at 5270 kg) to an orbit with apogee quite a ways above GEO.  If you increase the mass to 5500 kg, the delta-V will drop by about 70 m/s (assuming 111t fuel, 4.54t empty mass, 348 ISP). But this would still give an apogee (just barely) above GEO, so it's a legitimate GTO delivery (although with more delta V to GEO, about 1815 m/s instead of the 1775 of SES-9).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/10/2016 12:16 pm
My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...  ???

This is true -- OCISLY is assumed for all GTO, RTLS assumed for LEO.  Out west, the jury is still out on what parameters make JRTI vs. RTLS a solid assumption, so they are blank.

Completely agree that any of this can change when official word comes from SpaceX.  Until then, we guess our best!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: beancounter on 05/10/2016 03:09 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year.  Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year.  That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course.  Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why?  Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: nadreck on 05/10/2016 03:26 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year.  Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year.  That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course.  Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why?  Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.

Looks to me like they are now in their stride, as long as it doesn't break, to do two a month for the rest of the year which would put the total at 17.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/10/2016 03:34 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year.  Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year.  That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course.  Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why?  Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.

Payloads shouldn't be the problem now, they still haven't caught up on stuff they were supposed to launch last year.  They've really just begun trying to up the production rate, the second east coast pad isn't completed yet, and the western launch range may be down for maintenance most of the summer.  If they can get their production/testing ramped up in the next few months they can still get closer to 18 than 12.  They're on track to have 6-7 launches in the first half of the year, so you're assuming no improvement at all in the next 7 months.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 05/10/2016 03:46 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year.  Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year.  That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course.  Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why?  Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.

Looks to me like they are now in their stride, as long as it doesn't break, to do two a month for the rest of the year which would put the total at 17.

Remember they are ramping up still,what they are doing now won't be the pace for the rest of the year. 

They are in a 3-4 week cadence now and if they get to a 2-3 week cadence by December that is a massive improvement. 

2 keys to getting the volume up:
1) Iridium and other launches from VAFB
2) Launching 1 or 2 reused boosters
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/11/2016 01:21 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/730384028705148929):
Quote
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.

Echostar 105=SES 11
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/11/2016 02:26 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/730384028705148929):
Quote
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.

Echostar 105=SES 11

SES11 is already on the list but EchoStar 23 should be added. It is listed on Gunter's space page as slated for launch in 2016. The satellite is made by Space Systems/Loral and based on SSL-1300 bus, no mass is available.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/11/2016 07:20 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/730384028705148929):
Quote
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.

Echostar 105=SES 11

SES11 is already on the list but EchoStar 23 should be added. It is listed on Gunter's pace page as slated for launch in 2016. The satellite is made by Space Systems/Loral and based on SSL-1300 bus, no mass is available.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm

I don't see a location, sounds geostationary to me -- should we assume F9 from LC40 for GTO?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/11/2016 07:41 pm
If you follow the link you will see that Gunter has this info. It will go to GEO from the Cape according to his information.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/11/2016 07:46 pm
Excellent, thanks!  I'll be more diligent with the links!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: nadreck on 05/12/2016 06:16 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/730384028705148929):
Quote
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.

Echostar 105=SES 11

SES11 is already on the list but EchoStar 23 should be added. It is listed on Gunter's pace page as slated for launch in 2016. The satellite is made by Space Systems/Loral and based on SSL-1300 bus, no mass is available.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm

Did this just get squeezed into this summers manifest? If so does it represent something we already expected slipping significantly (ie giving up its place for this one) or does it possibly represent a scheduled core (say the one for SES-10) that is freed up by the first re-use launch? Or, more boldly, is this the first re-use launch? (though my bets are on SES-10 using the CRS-9 core)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: bstrong on 05/12/2016 06:36 pm
Did this just get squeezed into this summers manifest? If so does it represent something we already expected slipping significantly (ie giving up its place for this one) or does it possibly represent a scheduled core (say the one for SES-10) that is freed up by the first re-use launch? Or, more boldly, is this the first re-use launch? (though my bets are on SES-10 using the CRS-9 core)

It was mentioned in this article back in February, so it's not a super recent addition:

http://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2016/02/25/echostar-excited-about-2016-launches-musing-jupiter-3-next-gen-hts/

Echostar seems to be somewhat secretive about their plans, so I'm guessing they just asked SpaceX not to announce it when they booked the reservation.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 05/13/2016 12:58 am
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year.  Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year.  That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course.  Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why?  Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.

Payloads shouldn't be the problem now, they still haven't caught up on stuff they were supposed to launch last year.  They've really just begun trying to up the production rate, the second east coast pad isn't completed yet, and the western launch range may be down for maintenance most of the summer.  If they can get their production/testing ramped up in the next few months they can still get closer to 18 than 12.  They're on track to have 6-7 launches in the first half of the year, so you're assuming no improvement at all in the next 7 months.

Payloads will be limiting after a few months if the reuse begins to work.  1-2 re-launches doubles the effective production rate; 5-10 re-launches provides capacity to launch the world's 100 per year even at a production rate of only one per month -- which they probably are doing now.  Payload increase will probably never outpace SpaceX's capacity to launch with LC-40, 39A, and 4E on line. Then add Boca Chica...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 05/13/2016 02:12 am
Payloads will be limiting after a few months if the reuse begins to work.  1-2 re-launches doubles the effective production rate; 5-10 re-launches provides capacity to launch the world's 100 per year even at a production rate of only one per month -- which they probably are doing now.  Payload increase will probably never outpace SpaceX's capacity to launch with LC-40, 39A, and 4E on line. Then add Boca Chica...

Yep, they are a few years away from that though.

It's going to be very interesting to see the capacity catch up and how much of the market SpaceX can take from others.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/13/2016 11:58 am
Eutelsat launch seems to be firming up as mid-June (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1533755#msg1533755 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1533755#msg1533755)). IF that holds it could be SpaceX are finally getting into the long promised increase in launch frequency.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 05/13/2016 01:03 pm
Eutelsat launch seems to be firming up as mid-June (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1533755#msg1533755 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1533755#msg1533755)). IF that holds it could be SpaceX are finally getting into the long promised increase in launch frequency.

Another new feature is the availability of a string of payloads manifested and ready at both east and west launch sites.  They've displayed good cadence from LC-40 in short bursts, but never two launch sites/coasts in parallel... that will be proof that they've staffed up sufficiently for two independent sites.  How they run LC-40 and 39A in tandem will also be interesting to watch. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: StarTracker on 05/13/2016 01:25 pm
Quote
Window: 05:40PM-TBA EST

A nit: the eastern time zone is currently on Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) (UTC-4), therefore EST is technically incorrect. (A possible workaround to prevent future confusion {especially when discussing pads on both coasts} would be to provide the time as "5:40 PM Local" or "1740L")
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/13/2016 03:29 pm
Site: C=Canaveral(UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
         SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)
         LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
       V=Vandenberg(UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
         SLC-4E: Active for F9
       B=Boca Chica(UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
         Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November,
time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       LOCAL        LV  Core   Ret-                                    MASS         No-
EST. DATE  TIME/UTC     S/N    urn  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  (kg)   Site  tes
---------- -------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ---
2015-12-22          F9  1019   L    ORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38149.0)          LEO  1892   C-40
2016-01-17 1042/-8  F9         S    Jason-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29457.0)                       LEO  553    V-4E
2016-03-04 1835/-5  F9         S    SES-9 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34077.0)                         GTO  5271   C-40
2016-04-08 1643/-4  F9  1021   S    CRS-8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39350.0)                         LEO  ~9k    C-40   23
2016-05-06 0121/-4  F9  1022   S    JCSAT-14 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33778.0)                      GTO  4696   C-40   24
2016-05-27 1740/-4  F9  1023   S    Thaicom 8 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40256.0)                     GTO  3025   C-40   25
2016-06-15 1029/-4  F9         S    Eutelsat 117W B & ABS-2A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.0)      GTO  4200   C-40   26
2016-07-18 0045/-4  F9         L    CRS-9 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40310.0)                         LEO  ~9k    C-40   27
2016-08-14 0126/-4  F9         S    JCSAT-16 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40373.0)                      GTO  ~4600  C-40   28
2016-09-01 0907/-4  F9         N/A  AMOS-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.0)(destroyed in pad test) GTO  5500   C-40   29
2017-01-14 0954/-8  F9  1029   S    Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0)       PLR  9600   V-4E   30
2017-02-19 0939/-5  F9  1031   L    CRS 10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0)                        LEO  ~9k    C-39A  31
2017-03-16 0200/-4  F9  1030   X    Echostar 23 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0)                   GTO  ~5500  C-39A  32
2017-03-30 1827/-4  F9  1021.2 S    SES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0)                        GTO  5282   C-39A  33
2017-05-01 0715/-4  F9  1032   L    NROL-76 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0)                       LEO  ?      C-39A  34
2017-05-15 1921/-4  F9  1034   X    Inmarsat 5 F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)                 GTO  6086   C-39A  35
2017-06-03 1707/-4  F9  1035   L    CRS 11 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)                        LEO  ~9k    C-39A  36
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-06-23 1410/-4  F9  1029.2 S    BulgariaSat-1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0)                 GTO  3669   C-39A  37
2017-06-25 1325/-7  F9  1036   S    Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)       PLR  9600   V-4E   38
2017-07-xx 1935/-4  F9         X    Intelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)                  GTO  ~6k    C-39A  39
2017-07-late        F9         ?    SES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)           GTO  5400   C-39A  40
2017-08-01          F9         L    CRS 12 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42878.0)                        LEO  ~9k    C
2017-08             F9         L    Air Force X-37B OTV-5 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)         LEO  5400   C
2017-08             F9         ?    FORMOSAT-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)                    SSO  ~525   V-4E   41
2017-08-24          F9         S    Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)       PLR  9600   V-4E       
2017-Q3             F9         S    Koreasat-5A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)                   GTO  3500   C
2017-10             F9         S    GovSat-1 (SES-16) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)             GTO  4000   C
2017                 H         LL?  Falcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42705.0)                  C-39A  50
2017-10             F9         S    Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)       PLR  9600   V-4E
2017-10             F9         ?    SAOCOM 1A                     SSO  3000   V-4E
2017-11             F9         L    CRS 13 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42775.0)                        LEO  ~9k    C
2017-Q4             F9         S    SES-14 (NASA GOLD payload) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.0)    GTO  4200   C
2017-12             F9         S    Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)       PLR  9600   V-4E
2017                 H         LL?  STP-2 (US Air Force) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)          MEO  ~8k?   C-39A
2017-Q4             F9              Hispasat 1F                   GTO  ~5k    C      60
2017-12             F9              Bangabandhu (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)                   GTO  ~3500  C      61
2017                F9              Paz & co-passenger (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)            SSO  1400   V-4E   62
2018                F9              Spaceflight SSO-A (575km) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38551.0)     SSO         V-4E   70
2018                F9         S    Es'hail 2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36435.0)                     GTO  ~3k    C
2018                F9         ?    PSN-6 and co-passenger (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)        GTO  5000   C
2018-02             F9         L    CRS 14                        LEO  ~9k    C
2018-02             F9              Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)       PLR  9600   V-4E
2018-03             F9         ?    CCtCap DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)                    LEO         C-39A
2018-03-20          F9              NASA (TESS) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36349.0)                   HEO  325    C
2018-04             F9         L    CRS 15                        LEO  ~9k    C
2018-04             F9              Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)       PLR  9600   V-4E
2018-H1             F9              CCiCap In-Flight Abort Test   SUB         C-39A
2018-H1             F9              Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C  GTO  >5400  C
2018-H1             F9              Telstar 19 Vantage            GTO  >5400  C
2018-05             F9              USAF GPS III A-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33921.0)              MEO  3880   C
2018-06             F9              Telkom 4                      GTO         C      68
2018                F9              CCtCap DM2 (Crew)             LEO         C-39A
2018-mid            F9              Iridium NEXT 8/GRACE-FO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)       SSO  ~6000  V     
2018                 H              Arabsat 6A (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40420.0)                    GTO  ~6k    C/B
2018-08             F9         L    CRS 16                        LEO  ~9k    C
2018-Q3             F9              RADARSAT Constellation (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32492.0)        SSO  1400   V-4E
2018                F9              OHB SARah 1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)                   SSO  ~2200  V-4E
2018-10             F9         L    CRS 17                        LEO  ~9k    C
2018-Q4             F9              Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)     SSO         V-4E   70
2018-Q4             F9              GiSat-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)                       GTO  ~6k    C/B
2018-H2             F9              Spaceflight GTO-1(200x36k/km) GTO         C      70
2018-H2             F9              Spaceflight GTO-2(200x60k/km) GTO         C      70
2018-12             F9         L    CRS 18                        LEO  ~9k    C
2018-end             H         ???  SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42421.0)     TLI  ~10k?  C-39A  99
2018                F9              SAOCOM 1B                     SSO  3000   V-4E
2019                F9              CRS 19-20                     LEO         C
2019-02             F9              USAF GPS IIIA-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)               MEO  3880   C
2019                F9              OHB SARah 2/3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32563.0)                 SSO  ~3600  V-4E
2019-H2             F9              Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO) SSO         V-4E   70
2020                F               Inmarsat 6 F1                 GTO         C/B    65
2020                 H              Red Dragon (Mars Surface)     TMI  ~11k   C/B
2020-H1             F9              Spaceflight GTO-C(200x36k/km) GTO         C/B    70
2020-H1             F9              Spaceflight SSO-D (500km SSO) SSO         V-4E   70
2020-2021            H              ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEA   GTO  6400   C/B    69
2021-04             F9              SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)                          LEO  2000   V-4E
TBD (NET 2022)       H              ViaSat 3-Asia (maybe)         GTO  6400   C/B    69
TBD                 F               Inmarsat                      GTO         C/B
TBD (2019-2024)     F9              Commercial Crew (6 flights)   LEO         C-39A
TBD (2019-2024)     F9              CRS-2 (6+ flights)            LEO         C
TBD                 F               EutelSat

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.0)
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.0)
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.0)
Wikipedia Falcon Launches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches)
Viewing flights from Vandenberg (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41995.0)
Upcoming SpaceX Talks (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1690190#msg1690190)

NOTES:
[20] Orbcomm OG2 Launch 2 [FCC F9-21]
[21] Jason-3 [FCC F9-19]
[22] SES-9 [FCC F9-22]
[23] CRS-8 [FCC 23] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39350.0) / Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39537.0)
[24] JCSAT-14 [FCC F9-24] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33778.0) / Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39843.0) / L2 Coverage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39796.0) / Pre-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/03/spacex-prepares-two-missions-mcgregor/) /
 Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/05/falcon-9-jcsat-14-launch/)
[25] Thaicom-8 [FCC F9-25] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40256.0) / Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40182.0#lastPost) / L2 Coverage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40255.0) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/05/falcon-9-thaicom-8-launch/)
[26] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A [FCC F9-26] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.0) / Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40395.0) / L2 Coverage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40070.0) /
 Pre-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-readies-falcon-9-reuse-testing/) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-falcon-9-dual-satellite-launch/)
[27] CRS-9 [FCC 27] Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40310.0) / Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40577.0) /  L2 Coverage (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40562.0) /
 Return Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40977.0) / Static Fire Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/07/spacex-static-fire-falcon-9-rocket-crs-9-launch/) / Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/07/spacex-falcon-9-crs-9-dragon-launch/)
[28] JCSat-16 [FCC F9-28] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40373.0)
[29] Amos-6 [FCC F9-29] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.0)
[30] Iridium NEXT Flight 1 [FCC F9-30] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.0)
[31] CRS-10 [FCC 32] Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40815.0)
[32] EchoStar 23 [FCC F9-31] Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0)
[33] SES-10 [FCC F9-33] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0)
[34] NROL-76 [FCC 1363] Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.0)
[35] Inmarsat 5 F4 [FCC F9-34] Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)
[36] CRS-11 Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)

[37] Bulgariasat-1 Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35587.0) Launch Window 14:10 – 16:10 (Eastern)
[38] Iridium Next (Flight 2) [FCC 1338] Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)
[39] Intelsat 35e [FCC 1372] Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0) Launch Window 19:35-20:35 (Eastern)
[40] SES 11/Echostar 105 Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)
[41] FORMOSAT-5 Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0)
[50] FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
[60] Hispasat 1f also called Hispasat 30W-6
[61] Bangabandhu News Article (http://en.prothom-alo.com/science-technology/news/125991/50pc-work-of-Bangabandhu-Satellite-completed) / Satellite Order Press Release (https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite) / Gunter's Site (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/bangabandhu-1.htm)
[62] Paz (Hisdesat) post in manifest thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1650252#msg1650252) / article in DW (http://www.dw.com/ru/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA-%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9-%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%83%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA-%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB-%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC-%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%84%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%80%D1%84-%D0%B8-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B/a-37800534)
[65] Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-juggling-two-launches-says-spacex-to-return-to-flight-in-december/) / Airbus contract (https://airbusdefenceandspace.com/newsroom/news-and-features/airbus-defence-and-space-signs-contract-with-inmarsat-to-build-two-next-generation-mobile-communications-satellites/) / Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/inmarsat-6.htm) / Space Intel mention (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/interview-rupert-pearce-ceo-inmarsat)
[68] Telkom 4 links (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1680958#msg1680958) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/telkom-4.htm)
[69] Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.
  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 (http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2016/02/10/dankberg-viasat-3-satellites-will-have-more-capacity-than-the-rest-of-the-world-combined/) SpaceNews 2/10/2016 (http://spacenews.com/viasat-details-1-4-billion-global-ka-band-satellite-broadband-strategy-to-oust-incumbent-players/) Gunter (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm)
[70] Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428)
[99] SpaceX announcement (http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year)


[xx] Europasat/HellasSat 3 moved to different launch vehicle
[xx] ABS-8 Satellite build cancelled
[xx] SHERPA cancelled from FORMOSAT-5 flight

Competitions for future payloads:
STP-3 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41332.0)
Air Force (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1655839#msg1655839) First 6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42900.msg1676308#msg1676308) EELV (https://www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=925e366fba301e452496dfd442d6a800&tab=core&_cview=0)

L2 notes on manifest:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42839.msg1683254#msg1683254 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42839.msg1683254#msg1683254)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/14/2016 07:57 pm
I was able to find what it is that is under construction at VAFB range. It is that they are relocating the range control center. All equipment will have been removed from the current location/building by 1 June. This leaves a ? on how long it will take to put the control center back to together and to validate the systems (especially range safety).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: johnmoe on 05/14/2016 09:03 pm
I was able to find what it is that is under construction at VAFB range. It is that they are relocating the range control center. All equipment will have been removed from the current location/building by 1 June. This leaves a ? on how long it will take to put the control center back to together and to validate the systems (especially range safety).

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:zoH6Ykxpo14J:www.losangeles.af.mil/news/story.asp%3Fid%3D123473700+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Quote
This relocation effort requires the SMC government/contractor team, in concert with the 30th Space Wing, to relocate 12 Range Mission Systems.  The first step was successfully relocating nine of the 12 systems prior to the range closure on March 8.  The size, age, and complexity of the remaining three systems require a range maintenance downtime until Aug. 20 to relocate them.  Launch vehicles capable of using the autonomous flight safety system may still be able to launch from VAFB during the closure.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/14/2016 09:32 pm
I was able to find what it is that is under construction at VAFB range. It is that they are relocating the range control center. All equipment will have been removed from the current location/building by 1 June. This leaves a ? on how long it will take to put the control center back to together and to validate the systems (especially range safety).

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:zoH6Ykxpo14J:www.losangeles.af.mil/news/story.asp%3Fid%3D123473700+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Quote
This relocation effort requires the SMC government/contractor team, in concert with the 30th Space Wing, to relocate 12 Range Mission Systems.  The first step was successfully relocating nine of the 12 systems prior to the range closure on March 8.  The size, age, and complexity of the remaining three systems require a range maintenance downtime until Aug. 20 to relocate them.  Launch vehicles capable of using the autonomous flight safety system may still be able to launch from VAFB during the closure.
Thanks for the additional info.

So does F9 use an autonomous flight safety system?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cscott on 05/16/2016 12:20 pm
Afaik it does have an autonomous flight safety system but it has not yet been fully certified/validated.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/16/2016 05:10 pm
Afaik it does have an autonomous flight safety system but it has not yet been fully certified/validated.
Thanks,
so if the Formosat and Iridium really do launch in July (an early and late July launches) more than a month prior to the range being fully operational by mid August, does that mean that certification is pending? And that having flown several times (most likely on almost every F9(FT) launched) is the remaining item an AF review of flight data performance of the system vs the ground tracking?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cscott on 05/16/2016 05:14 pm
Dunno the status, we just had some L2 info regarding the autonomous flight termination demo on the crs-8 flight.  I don't think we've gotten any more concrete information on the actual steps required for certification or the timeline.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/17/2016 04:33 pm
Can someone with confidence state the plan "as best known" for the Crewed Dragon missions next year?

I have seen discussion of Unmanned, Unmaneed with In-Flight Abort, and Manned.  Allegedly all happen before 3Q 2017.

My questions are -- 3 different missions, correct?  And associated dates.  Last I saw, it was approximately this:
2017-03     F9                       CREW Dragon (Unmanned)               
2017-06     F9                       CREW Dragon (In-flight Abort Test)     
2017-08     F9                       CREW Dragon (with Crew)             

Any additional information/details would be extremely helpful.  Thanks!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/17/2016 04:54 pm
Can someone with confidence state the plan "as best known" for the Crewed Dragon missions next year?

I have seen discussion of Unmanned, Unmaneed with In-Flight Abort, and Manned.  Allegedly all happen before 3Q 2017.

My questions are -- 3 different missions, correct?  And associated dates.  Last I saw, it was approximately this:
2017-03     F9                       CREW Dragon (Unmanned)               
2017-06     F9                       CREW Dragon (In-flight Abort Test)     
2017-08     F9                       CREW Dragon (with Crew)             

Any additional information/details would be extremely helpful.  Thanks!

The slide in this post is really the latest info we have:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1510023#msg1510023 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1510023#msg1510023)
first flight a couple months later than you listed (May-July-August for the three).  Would be shocked if they don't move around a little between now and then.

On your schedule you might want to take another look at KoreaSat and BulgariaSat.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/18/2016 03:51 am
The CRS-10 launch was listed again today as being on Dec 1.
This is from a work schedule for one of the external payloads.
It is good to see it listed as RTLS, as I hope to be there to see it. 
Is there a source for this or is it listed as RTLS because Musk said that would be standard for CRS missions?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/19/2016 12:22 am
NROL-76 launch from SLC-40 in March 2017.

SpaceNews article (http://spacenews.com/nro-discloses-previously-unannounced-launch-contract-for-spacex/)
Quote
SpaceX is scheduled to launch a payload for the National Reconnaissance Office in March 2017 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida...mission is known as NROL-76
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/19/2016 12:44 pm
NROL-76 launch from SLC-40 in March 2017.

SpaceNews article (http://spacenews.com/nro-discloses-previously-unannounced-launch-contract-for-spacex/)
Quote
SpaceX is scheduled to launch a payload for the National Reconnaissance Office in March 2017 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida...mission is known as NROL-76

Does "Cape Canaveral" omit 39A?  I'm not sure that can be inferred, but I'm not as connected as many of you.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 05/19/2016 12:53 pm
...

Does "Cape Canaveral" omit 39A?  I'm not sure that can be inferred, but I'm not as connected as many of you.
Yes, there are two *spaceports*: Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral AFS.
SLC-39A belongs to KSC.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/19/2016 04:11 pm
OK, we will assume that the person making the quote above knows this and go with it.

Thanks!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/19/2016 04:28 pm
But you also have to take into account what Jim says here:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40328.msg1536484#msg1536484
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dmc6960 on 05/19/2016 07:08 pm
With the recent update that the Bulgaria Sat is undergoing vacuum testing...

https://twitter.com/sslmda/status/722085901430616064

Here is the statement from 2014 indicating a 2016 launch.

http://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20140908b.html

I see its still listed as TBD on this list.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/20/2016 02:50 am
There is a report in the Eutelsat117W B & ABS 2A mission thread by rockets4life97 that Spaceflight Now listed the date for that launch as June 16th.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1536716#msg1536716

EDIT: To make my post a little bit more useful.
The Spaceflight Now launch schedule is here (http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/).
Yesterday they posted the date and launch window for Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS 2A: June 16, approx. launch window 1430 GMT (10:30 a.m. EDT) and approx. launch window for CRS-9: 1200 GMT (8 a.m. EDT) which is currently listed to launch on June 27. They seem to be a pretty reliable source.
Looks like a really ambitious schedule.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/20/2016 01:56 pm
With the recent update that the Bulgaria Sat is undergoing vacuum testing...

https://twitter.com/sslmda/status/722085901430616064

Here is the statement from 2014 indicating a 2016 launch.

http://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20140908b.html

I see its still listed as TBD on this list.

Based on the testing you cited above, want to hazard a month or quarter for launch??
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/20/2016 02:06 pm
With the recent update that the Bulgaria Sat is undergoing vacuum testing...

https://twitter.com/sslmda/status/722085901430616064

Here is the statement from 2014 indicating a 2016 launch.

http://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20140908b.html

I see its still listed as TBD on this list.

Based on the testing you cited above, want to hazard a month or quarter for launch??

NET 2016-12, probably 2017-Q1
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 05/20/2016 06:46 pm
For what it worth,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525773/000119312515357300/d12743dex992.htm

Quote
Intelsat S.A.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarter Ended September 30, 2015
October 29, 2015

Satellite*   Intelsat 35e
Follows    IS-903
Orbital Location   325.5°E
Launch Provider    SpaceX Falcon 9
Estimated Launch Date   2017
Estimated In-Service Date   2018
Application    Broadband & Media

However, Gunter's page for Intelsat 35e shows Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.4) as launch vechicle:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/intelsat-35e.htm

Could somebody clarify?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/20/2016 07:33 pm
For what it worth,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525773/000119312515357300/d12743dex992.htm

Quote
Intelsat S.A.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarter Ended September 30, 2015
October 29, 2015

Satellite*   Intelsat 35e
Follows    IS-903
Orbital Location   325.5°E
Launch Provider    SpaceX Falcon 9
Estimated Launch Date   2017
Estimated In-Service Date   2018
Application    Broadband & Media

However, Gunter's page for Intelsat 35e shows Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.4) as launch vechicle:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/intelsat-35e.htm

Could somebody clarify?

IntelSat has bought a launch from SpaceX, and they never announced what satellite they were going to launch.  They may just be waiting to see if FH actually starts flying.  A couple of the satellite companies have booked launches on both FH and Proton (InmarSat has booked a Proton slot as backup for EuropaSat in case FH isn't available next year).  We'll know when somebody actually makes an announcement I guess.  Gwynne did say they intend to launch 3 FH after the demo, which would be STP-2, EuropaSat, and something else.  Inmarsat-5 F4 is another one in the same time frame where it's unclear if the launch will be on FH or Proton.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Stan Black on 05/20/2016 08:55 pm
For what it worth,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525773/000119312515357300/d12743dex992.htm

Quote
Intelsat S.A.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarter Ended September 30, 2015
October 29, 2015

Satellite*   Intelsat 35e
Follows    IS-903
Orbital Location   325.5°E
Launch Provider    SpaceX Falcon 9
Estimated Launch Date   2017
Estimated In-Service Date   2018
Application    Broadband & Media

However, Gunter's page for Intelsat 35e shows Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.4) as launch vechicle:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/intelsat-35e.htm

Could somebody clarify?

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Robotbeat on 05/20/2016 08:57 pm
For what it worth,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525773/000119312515357300/d12743dex992.htm

Quote
Intelsat S.A.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarter Ended September 30, 2015
October 29, 2015

Satellite*   Intelsat 35e
Follows    IS-903
Orbital Location   325.5°E
Launch Provider    SpaceX Falcon 9
Estimated Launch Date   2017
Estimated In-Service Date   2018
Application    Broadband & Media

However, Gunter's page for Intelsat 35e shows Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.4) as launch vechicle:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/intelsat-35e.htm

Could somebody clarify?

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026
Unhelpful. Please at least include a translation of the basic gist when posting non-English sources: "Satellite operators prefer "Proton", without waiting for the beginning of the Falcon Heavy rocket launches"
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/20/2016 09:30 pm
http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Kinda funny when you get Google to translate it, I'm imagining someone saying this in a Russian accent:
Quote
According to the resource spaceflightnow.com, is now the premiere demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy version is scheduled for November 2016. It will take place or not - difficult to predict.

Basically it seems to be saying that Intelsat originally intended that satellite to be the first commercial FH payload but got tired of waiting for FH to fly.  Also mentions that their regular customers are getting priority scheduling on Proton and prices have dropped from $100M to $70M per flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 05/20/2016 11:06 pm
http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Kinda funny when you get Google to translate it, I'm imagining someone saying this in a Russian accent:
Quote
According to the resource spaceflightnow.com, is now the premiere demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy version is scheduled for November 2016. It will take place or not - difficult to predict.

Basically it seems to be saying that Intelsat originally intended that satellite to be the first commercial FH payload but got tired of waiting for FH to fly.  Also mentions that their regular customers are getting priority scheduling on Proton and prices have dropped from $100M to $70M per flight.

First, thank you for clarification.

Yes, Google translate works with Russian pretty poor, which is not a problem for me.
Actually, this Izvestia article does not add anything to your first answer.
Except - the article claims these launches are already switched to Proton, and it's a done deal. I'm not sure if it is true, and it would be not the first time I see incorrect info in Izvestia.

So, with respect to the topic -
there are 3 satellites: EuropaSat/HellasSat; Inmarsat-5 F4; Intelsat 35e
which were originally scheduled for Falcon.
Now they have option to use Proton, and for now we can not tell which launcher will which sat.

I guess we will know only when satellite is shipped to launch site.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 05/21/2016 12:49 am
For the line “2016-09                              Echostar 23”

BOOST:   F9
ORB:   GTO
MASS:   n/a
PAD:   LC40
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm

For the line “2016-10     F9           OCISLY      KOREASAT                               LC40”
Sat Name – “Koreasat 5A”, reference e.g. -
http://spacenews.com/chart-arianespace-spacex-battled-to-a-draw-for-2014-launch-contracts/

ORB:   GTO
MASS:   ~3500 kg
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/koreasat-5a.htm

PS: It’s better to replace “Asia Broadcast” (second flight from now) with “ABS 2A”, which is actual satellite name.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/21/2016 12:57 am
For the line “2016-09                              Echostar 23”

BOOST:   F9
ORB:   GTO
MASS:   n/a
PAD:   LC40
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm

For the line “2016-10     F9           OCISLY      KOREASAT                               LC40”
Sat Name – “Koreasat 5A”, reference e.g. -
http://spacenews.com/chart-arianespace-spacex-battled-to-a-draw-for-2014-launch-contracts/

ORB:   GTO
MASS:   ~3500 kg
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/koreasat-5a.htm

PS: It’s better to replace “Asia Broadcast” (second flight from now) with “ABS 2A”, which is actual satellite name.

There are quite a few tweaks to be made, I've given starhawk92 a list of updates, he's started copying them onto the main list.  If you see anything wrong in the list at https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1533858#msg1533858 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1533858#msg1533858) let us know.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Stan Black on 05/21/2016 07:03 am
http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Kinda funny when you get Google to translate it, I'm imagining someone saying this in a Russian accent:
Quote
According to the resource spaceflightnow.com, is now the premiere demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy version is scheduled for November 2016. It will take place or not - difficult to predict.

Basically it seems to be saying that Intelsat originally intended that satellite to be the first commercial FH payload but got tired of waiting for FH to fly.  Also mentions that their regular customers are getting priority scheduling on Proton and prices have dropped from $100M to $70M per flight.

First, thank you for clarification.

Yes, Google translate works with Russian pretty poor, which is not a problem for me.
Actually, this Izvestia article does not add anything to your first answer.
Except - the article claims these launches are already switched to Proton, and it's a done deal. I'm not sure if it is true, and it would be not the first time I see incorrect info in Izvestia.

So, with respect to the topic -
there are 3 satellites: EuropaSat/HellasSat; Inmarsat-5 F4; Intelsat 35e
which were originally scheduled for Falcon.
Now they have option to use Proton, and for now we can not tell which launcher will which sat.

I guess we will know only when satellite is shipped to launch site.

I think it was an assumption from the N.K. forum that it would be Intelsat 35e placed on Proton based on schedule:-
http://www.intelsat.com/global-network/satellites/launch-schedule/
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum13/topic12294/message1496672/#message1496672
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum14/topic14042/message1496674/#message1496674

Intelsat had booked a launch on a Falcon Heavy in 2012. No specific satellite is mentioned.
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/intelsat-signs-first-commercial-falcon-heavy-launch-agreement-spacex

Intelsat booked two Proton launches in 2013. Once again no specific satellites are mentioned. One is to be used for the upcoming Intelsat 31 launch.
http://www.ilslaunch.com/newsroom/news-releases/ils-proton-launch-two-missions-intelsat

They followed this with a further five in 2014.
http://www.ilslaunch.com/node/3996
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38807.0

There were several options, including 35e which was ordered in 2014.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/Boeing-to-Build-Intelsat-35e-EpicNG-Satellite
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/21/2016 05:21 pm
For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: OnWithTheShow on 05/21/2016 06:07 pm
For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

Is it certain that a FH with a Red Dragon will be constrained to a 2 month window? Would there be enough payload margin for a long window?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/21/2016 06:29 pm
For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

Is it certain that a FH with a Red Dragon will be constrained to a 2 month window? Would there be enough payload margin for a long window?

For our manifest purposes going with the small window is fine for now.  We can always adjust that entry a year and a half from now.  Dates for anything more than a couple months out are unlikely to be exact.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/22/2016 04:55 pm
A couple of sources indicate that Thaicom-8 launch is using F9-025 core and Eutelsat will use F9-026. The list is currently showing F9-26 for Thacom-8.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/23/2016 01:02 pm
For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

Very cool information, thank you so much!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/23/2016 01:24 pm
If you believe the core numbering is incorrect, please read these then provide your source.  Thanks!

Based on order of testing at McGregor, Eutelsat has core 25:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/falcon-9-booster-reuse-testing-ksc/
Shipped it:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39182.msg1518763#msg1518763
Must disprove this:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39182.msg1528448#msg1528448

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/23/2016 02:17 pm
There was a definitive post in L2 that the current core on the test stand (as of 5/20) is called F9-026:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34957.msg1537153#msg1537153 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34957.msg1537153#msg1537153)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 05/23/2016 04:10 pm
There was a definitive post in L2 that the current core on the test stand (as of 5/20) is called F9-026:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34957.msg1537153#msg1537153 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34957.msg1537153#msg1537153)
This (which I was not sure we should mention here) and SpaceX subreddit is using F9-025 as Thaicom core currently. They were originally the source of the information that the cores were swapped based on SpaceX contact. However now they are back to 025 for Thaicom.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/23/2016 09:48 pm
Looks like CRS-9 will launch July 16 at 1:32 PM EDT/local

"MEDIA ADVISORY M16-054
Next SpaceX Commercial Cargo Launch Targeted for Mid-July, NASA Opens Media Accreditation
Media accreditation now is open for the next SpaceX commercial cargo resupply services mission to the International Space Station, targeted for launch no earlier than approximately 1:32 a.m. EDT Saturday, July 16."

2016-07-16  F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS 9) [7]        LEO  10000   LC40

That should move it after Formosat-5 & Sherpa, if that holds for a June launch
Being the middle of the month, there is no obvious way to guess if it flies before or after Iridium Next Flight 1.

edit:
To keep the listing compact, my preference would be to temporarily replace the year with the opening of the launch window like

07-16-01:32  F9          RTLS        Dragon (CRS 9) [7]        LEO  10000   LC40

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 05/24/2016 01:49 pm
Comga -

I have received requests to not muck with the date format, so I have moved the launch window information to the footnotes to keep the table clean.  Thoughts?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/24/2016 02:30 pm
Looks like CRS-9 will launch July 16 at 1:32 PM EDT/local

That should move it after Formosat-5 & Sherpa, if that holds for a June launch
Being the middle of the month, there is no obvious way to guess if it flies before or after Iridium Next Flight 1.

Formosat-5 isn't launching in June, hopefully it will launch in July but even that's not a given.  We won't really know when SpaceX is ready to launch from Vandenberg again until they actually announce a launch date for something.

Moving CRS-9 back a couple weeks also compresses the Florida schedule even more for the third quarter.  Assuming nothing flies between EutelSat/ABS and CRS-9, they'll really need to get busy in August/September to have any chance of reaching their launch goals this year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/24/2016 05:00 pm
Comga -

I have received requests to not muck with the date format, so I have moved the launch window information to the footnotes to keep the table clean.  Thoughts?

It's your table but it looks good to me.  Clean and informative

edit: typo
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/24/2016 06:58 pm
A launch date of 16 July for CRS-9 is a 3 week interval from the Thiacom launch with the ABS+ launch almost exactly between. There is enough slack (2 weeks) to handle problems. SpaceX can if need be can do a 14 day turnaround. Primarily it is the stage availability and the payload readiness that is the drivers for launch dates.

A 3 week launch cycle for LC-40 could make for a very busy second half. With as many as 4 launches from SLC-4E and 2 from LC39A with as many as 8 from LC-40 making the total for the year as high as 20. But I don't think there is that many ready sats so LC-40 instead would have spurts of 3 week cycles with others being 1 month. So we are back to Ms Shottwell's 18 for the year statement.

The real question as others have pointed out is that Formaosat will either be early July as in first week or it would likely end up sometime NET mid-August. SpaceX will likely give Iridium priority.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rocx on 05/24/2016 07:34 pm
From the Falcon Heavy thread:
Our guy at the Space Tech Expo says the SpaceX person there is saying they are still hopeful to debut Falcon Heavy this year (NET December). We'll write up direct quotes that come back.

2016-12     FHeavy                   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight               LC39A
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/27/2016 01:50 pm
Tweet from Sara Seager (https://twitter.com/ProfSaraSeager/status/736178422205026304)
Quote
Looks like we’ll be spending Xmas 2017 at Cape Canaveral. New TESS launch date “no earlier than 20 December, 2017”
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 05/28/2016 03:22 pm
Thaicom-8 needs some green!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Senex on 05/31/2016 02:36 am
I want to express my appreciation for your project.  I find it useful to have the manifest easily accessible.

If I could make a suggestion . . . Several times I have found myself wanting to relate the listed flights back to earlier ones.  While I recognize that the list started as a collation of what could be guessed about what was coming up, it is increasingly becoming useful as a record of past flights as well.

I would weigh in on extending the list back in time to cover previous F9 flights.  Perhaps all.

Thanks again for your hard work.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/31/2016 03:18 am
I want to express my appreciation for your project.  I find it useful to have the manifest easily accessible.

If I could make a suggestion . . . Several times I have found myself wanting to relate the listed flights back to earlier ones.  While I recognize that the list started as a collation of what could be guessed about what was coming up, it is increasingly becoming useful as a record of past flights as well.

I would weigh in on extending the list back in time to cover previous F9 flights.  Perhaps all.

Thanks again for your hard work.
There is a thread called "The SpaceX Scrubs Thread" in the SpaceX General section that serves this function.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Shanuson on 05/31/2016 07:09 am
<...>
There is a thread called "The SpaceX Scrubs Thread" in the SpaceX General section that serves this function.
Could we add the link of that post (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.0) to the head of the first post here? Something like:
List of past launches can be found here! (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 05/31/2016 10:03 am
Question: If all goes well and the twin SEP comsats fly around the second full week of June '16, could SpaceX fit in another flight before the schedule window opens for SpX-CRS-9 in mid-July?

Maybe a DragonLab cumulative payload, in other words, every experiment that is ready can can fly on reasonably short notice, in a recycled CRS Dragon flying on the CRS-8 core. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting an ad-hoc flight; I think that's currently impossible (although I can see Musk wanting to work towards something like that). What I'm wondering is if something like this was the re-flight test that Musk stated that they were aiming to fly in this general time-frame.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/31/2016 12:20 pm
Question: If all goes well and the twin SEP comsats fly around the second full week of June '16, could SpaceX fit in another flight before the schedule window opens for SpX-CRS-9 in mid-July?

Maybe a DragonLab cumulative payload, in other words, every experiment that is ready can can fly on reasonably short notice, in a recycled CRS Dragon flying on the CRS-8 core. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting an ad-hoc flight; I think that's currently impossible (although I can see Musk wanting to work towards something like that). What I'm wondering is if something like this was the re-flight test that Musk stated that they were aiming to fly in this general time-frame.

The reuse flight is no longer in this timeframe, there is still no indication that a DragonLab mission will ever fly, and what you're suggesting is most certainly an ad-hoc flight. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deptrai on 06/02/2016 12:17 am
Any way you could attach an Excel file of the list in the first post here?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/02/2016 02:52 pm
Latest updates on Spaceflight Now launch schedule (http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/) are EutelSat/ABS to June 14 10:32 local and Amos-6 postponed until September.  Possibility now that SpaceX will only have 7 launches through end of July, which would make the schedule for the rest of the year very interesting.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/02/2016 10:35 pm
Latest updates on Spaceflight Now launch schedule (http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/) are EutelSat/ABS to June 14 10:32 local and Amos-6 postponed until September.  Possibility now that SpaceX will only have 7 launches through end of July, which would make the schedule for the rest of the year very interesting.

That Spaceflightnow listing says that the Eutelsat/ABS launch has been moved UP by two days from the 6/16 date at the top of this thread.
(That could give me a chance to be there and see the launch!)
Is there any corroboration or refutation?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 06/03/2016 02:29 am
Delta IV Heavy is scheduled for June 9th... Seems maybe a little tight, especially if it slips.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/03/2016 04:07 am
Delta IV Heavy is scheduled for June 9th... Seems maybe a little tight, especially if it slips.

At times when SpaceX manages two flights a month from the cape, you're not going to do much better than 5-7 days between SpaceX and someone else's flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 06/03/2016 09:21 am
Delta IV Heavy is scheduled for June 9th... Seems maybe a little tight, especially if it slips.

I believe that the Eastern Range needs two days to recycle from a full launch, so anything over that is theoretically trivial. This is especially the case when you have launches from different pads and one of the launch providers is ULA.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 06/03/2016 08:58 pm
SpaceX Tweet (https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/738832343725576192)
Next launch targeting June 14 from Cape Canaveral – 45 minute launch window opens at 10:32am ET, 2:32pm UTC
Image of birds: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkDcGNMUkAAMAZx.jpg:orig

Next launch is now 14 not 16 June, per SpaceX tweet..
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/04/2016 12:25 am
Seems like the move forward of Eutelsat/Abs could be an indication of another launch between this one and CRS-9 (especially if CRS-9 moves to the left some).

Is there any indication of what the next launch would be? Are there any birds that could be moved up?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/04/2016 01:12 am
Seems like the move forward of Eutelsat/Abs could be an indication of another launch between this one and CRS-9 (especially if CRS-9 moves to the left some).

Is there any indication of what the next launch would be? Are there any birds that could be moved up?

I haven't seen an indication of anything that could launch before CRS-9.  I think it's unlikely anything launches before then.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mfck on 06/04/2016 01:25 am
Moving a launch two days up has a value by itself, regardless of other launches. Is there a precedent to this?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/04/2016 02:48 pm
I'm hoping we are going to see a steady stream of cores make it to the Cape and Vandenberg in June, so that maybe we'll get 4 to 6 launches in the July/August time frame.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: yokem55 on 06/04/2016 03:02 pm
Seems like the move forward of Eutelsat/Abs could be an indication of another launch between this one and CRS-9 (especially if CRS-9 moves to the left some).

Is there any indication of what the next launch would be? Are there any birds that could be moved up?
Unless AMOS or JCSAT are at the the launch site already, I don't think they will be getting anything else off before CRS-9. I don't think it will impact the manifest all that much either as the current manifest only has ~6 launches at LC40 for the year left. As long as LC39 comes online, the manifest for the year remains very doable.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 06/05/2016 01:04 pm
Seems like the move forward of Eutelsat/Abs could be an indication of another launch between this one and CRS-9 (especially if CRS-9 moves to the left some).

Is there any indication of what the next launch would be? Are there any birds that could be moved up?

I haven't seen an indication of anything that could launch before CRS-9.  I think it's unlikely anything launches before then.

CRS-9 is being delayed, but haven't heard duration.  There is a big opening in the schedule, but is there a core and payload to fill it?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 06/05/2016 06:56 pm
Seems like the move forward of Eutelsat/Abs could be an indication of another launch between this one and CRS-9 (especially if CRS-9 moves to the left some).

Is there any indication of what the next launch would be? Are there any birds that could be moved up?

I haven't seen an indication of anything that could launch before CRS-9.  I think it's unlikely anything launches before then.

CRS-9 is being delayed, but haven't heard duration.  There is a big opening in the schedule, but I sere a core and payload to fill it?
yes and yes. Valid as of two weeks ago is that shipping reviews and packing in the shipping container has been completed for both AMOS-6 and JCSAT-16. I have found no public indication yet that the satellites have arrived in CCAFS for processing at either offline or online processing facilities on and off of base.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/06/2016 06:24 pm
Roscosmos confirms (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/739861606276947968) Soyuz launch to ISS is postponed to July 7 from June 24. CRS-9 is expected to be delayed as well until after the new crew (with the training to install the IDA) arrives.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mn on 06/07/2016 03:04 pm
Roscosmos confirms (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/739861606276947968) Soyuz launch to ISS is postponed to July 7 from June 24. CRS-9 is expected to be delayed as well until after the new crew (with the training to install the IDA) arrives.

A: July 16 is still after July 7, do they need to be on iss for a certain period of adjustment time before they are fully ready to work?

B: http://spacenews.com/russia-delays-next-soyuz-launch-to-space-station/ "...NASA spokesman Dan Huot said June 6 that the Dragon launch remains scheduled for July 16...."
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/07/2016 03:53 pm
On another ISS note, Jeff Foust tweeted (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/739868163307933696) this yesterday about a CRS-11 payload:
Quote
Hertz: Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) instrument to be delivered to Cape tmrw for launch to ISS next February.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/09/2016 11:55 am
Quote
@pbdes  KTSat: We plan November SpaceX launch of our Koreasat 5A & early 2017 Ariane launch of Koreasat 7. But launch dates are moving targets....

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/740867500754280449 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/740867500754280449)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 06/10/2016 05:17 pm
IIRC, the Dragon CRS-10 flight is to be the last from SLC-40.
All following CRS are going to fly from SLC-39A.

Sorry - can't find a reference for this bit, hope somebody will help/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/10/2016 07:33 pm
IIRC, the Dragon CRS-10 flight is to be the last from SLC-40.
All following CRS are going to fly from SLC-39A.

Sorry - can't find a reference for this bit, hope somebody will help/

Unless you can find a really solid and really recent reference for that I'm not going to believe it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 06/10/2016 08:10 pm
IIRC, the Dragon CRS-10 flight is to be the last from SLC-40.
All following CRS are going to fly from SLC-39A.

Sorry - can't find a reference for this bit, hope somebody will help/

Unless you can find a really solid and really recent reference for that I'm not going to believe it.
As I said, I can't.
If you want to help: I saw this info here, at NSF, and it was either at the LC-39A transition thread, or at crew Dragon progress. And, it was a while ago, not recently - that's why I cant find it.

*...really solid and really recent reference ...*
- we are talking about plans (and - SpaceX plans). So, I'm afraid that "really solid" is not a good formula  :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/10/2016 08:40 pm
*...really solid and really recent reference ...*
- we are talking about plans (and - SpaceX plans). So, I'm afraid that "really solid" is not a good formula  :)

Yeah, I think it was the plan, and it might still happen.  But I'm just not going to count on it until we see what happens with the Falcon Heavy Demo flight, and how much time they need to prep another FH for the STP-2 flight.  If CRS-11 stays at the beginning of February then it's possible, but if the FH Demo gets delayed any more then it would make a lot more sense to run CRS-11 out of SLC-40.  I would guess by late 2017 they'd be able to commit to running CRS flights out of LC-39A.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 06/11/2016 01:10 pm
...
Yeah, I think it was the plan, and it might still happen.  But I'm just not going to count on it until we see what happens with the Falcon Heavy Demo flight, and how much time they need to prep another FH for the STP-2 flight.  If CRS-11 stays at the beginning of February then it's possible, but if the FH Demo gets delayed any more then it would make a lot more sense to run CRS-11 out of SLC-40.  I would guess by late 2017 they'd be able to commit to running CRS flights out of LC-39A.

IMHO, the Falcon Heavy Demo flight from SLC-39A is not a #1 priority for NASA and, by extension, for its contractor.
My guess: the priority is Commercial Crew Dragon flights, and here is firm deadline, the end of 2018.
If this is true, then an early validation of the pad and all its GSE - with CRS Cargo Flights - it is desirable (pretty much).

>then it would make a lot more sense to run CRS-11 out of SLC-40.
- in my view, it ("sense") completely depends on how the priorities are defined. Which we do not (and will not) know at "really solid" level. And I'm not sure this discussion belongs to the topic (although may be).

My point is - for now we can leave CRS-11 as it is, but the rest of CRS flights show as going out of SLC-39A. Just to show, that we know about these plans (to transfer all ISS flights to one pad).

Anyway, most of info in the Main Table is preliminary/imprecise/un-solid - yet the table is very useful.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/11/2016 09:34 pm
Next launch moved to 6/15, 10:29AM EDT/2:29PM UTC (multiple twitter posts, including SpaceX)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: beancounter on 06/13/2016 04:35 am
Just can't see SpaceX managing 3 launches in July and September meaning no way of making their target of 18 for the year. 
So far averaging 1 a month which is more realistic and where they were last year before their little issue, with perhaps adding a 3rd every 2 months.  Yes and more likely now they've got the bugs out of FT. 
So I'd reckon they'll do 8 or 9 for the rest of the year which would give them 14 or 15.  IMHO a great result. 
Oh and I'm not counting FH or a re-flown F9 1st stage in these unless they carry a commercial payload - unlikely.
Cheers
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: yokem55 on 06/13/2016 10:47 pm
Just can't see SpaceX managing 3 launches in July and September meaning no way of making their target of 18 for the year. 
So far averaging 1 a month which is more realistic and where they were last year before their little issue, with perhaps adding a 3rd every 2 months.  Yes and more likely now they've got the bugs out of FT. 
So I'd reckon they'll do 8 or 9 for the rest of the year which would give them 14 or 15.  IMHO a great result. 
Oh and I'm not counting FH or a re-flown F9 1st stage in these unless they carry a commercial payload - unlikely.
Cheers
Given that there are 3 launches out of Vandenberg, and hopefully a couple from 39a before the end of the year, as long core production keeps up at 1 every 3 weeks, the manifest should be doable. The bigger issue might be payload availability at the right times, but not impossible.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: whitelancer64 on 06/13/2016 11:11 pm
Just can't see SpaceX managing 3 launches in July and September meaning no way of making their target of 18 for the year. 
So far averaging 1 a month which is more realistic and where they were last year before their little issue, with perhaps adding a 3rd every 2 months.  Yes and more likely now they've got the bugs out of FT. 
So I'd reckon they'll do 8 or 9 for the rest of the year which would give them 14 or 15.  IMHO a great result. 
Oh and I'm not counting FH or a re-flown F9 1st stage in these unless they carry a commercial payload - unlikely.
Cheers

SpaceX is ramping up their launch pace - they're currently doing better than one per month:

34 days between SES-9 and CRS-8
27 days between CRS-8 and JCSat-14
22 days between JCSat-14 and Thaicom 8

If ABS-2A / Eutelsat 117 West B launches on the 15th, that's 18 days after Thaicom 8

Don't forget that some of the upcoming launches are out of Vandenberg, meaning they can keep up this fast pace at their SLC-40 pad and add to the total from the West coast. And at some point LC-39A will be operational, too.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: JBF on 06/13/2016 11:19 pm
Only if they have a 2nd crew fully trained up.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/14/2016 12:49 am
This is not the Launch Poll thread.
Can we keep this to things actually said about specific launches and not bring in speculation?
There are many other threads for that.
Thanks
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 06/14/2016 12:51 am
Only if they have a 2nd crew fully trained up.

And production or reuse of cores.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 06/14/2016 02:50 am
Reminder: While this is an update AND discussion thread,  do think about whether your post is better suited to another thread, this should be manifest related... (that is, about a specific launch being added to the manifest, or removed, or shuffled).... How many launches SpaceX will notch this year is only sort of related. Really only sort of sort of.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 06/14/2016 02:57 pm
Any indication yet that SpaceX are attempting to move something into the 4 weeks between the double-launch and CRS-9 in mid-July?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/14/2016 03:05 pm
Any indication yet that SpaceX are attempting to move something into the 4 weeks between the double-launch and CRS-9 in mid-July?
No.

NSF: SpaceX readies another Falcon 9, close in on reuse testing (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-readies-falcon-9-reuse-testing/)
Quote
Following this launch, SpaceX will take a short break of around a month before a mid-July mission involving the launch of the latest Dragon mission to the International Space Station (ISS).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Kryten on 06/14/2016 04:26 pm
Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2m2 minutes ago
Iridium says 1st SpaceX launch of 10 2nd generation sats planned for 12 Sept from VAFB, not July as previously targeted.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 06/14/2016 04:35 pm
I've got a feeling that the cause for the Iridium NEXT slip is the prolonged maintenance shut-down of the Western Range. I bet that there'll be a bit of a backlog for the 30th SW to work through. Not as big as a similar shut down on the other coast would cause but still a backlog.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 06/14/2016 05:26 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 06/14/2016 05:47 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

Any thoughts on if this means the rest of the constellation slips 2 months, or if everything at VAFB slips two months?

Or should we just let it ride for now?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 06/14/2016 05:49 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

Any thoughts on if this means the rest of the constellation slips 2 months, or if everything at VAFB slips two months?

Or should we just let it ride for now?

Let it ride man, let it ride.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/14/2016 08:17 pm
SES is showing 4Q on their web site for SES-10 now.

For the Vandenberg flights we have this Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742811664282615808)
Quote
Iridium CEO Desch: We've purchased 7 new Falcon 9s, no reusable stages in the mix. We think our Sept launch is next SpaceX launch from VAFB.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 06/15/2016 12:00 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

Any thoughts on if this means the rest of the constellation slips 2 months, or if everything at VAFB slips two months?

Or should we just let it ride for now?

Article mentions insurers requiring three months after first launch before second.  Puts Iridium 2 in December.


http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.msg1549462#msg1549462
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/15/2016 12:38 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742855232128843777)
Quote
SpaceX confirms Iridium launch NET 12 Sept to occur before Formosat 5 & Spaceflight Sherpa tug of 87 sats from VAFB.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 06/15/2016 01:11 pm
Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Quote
Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: SLC on 06/15/2016 01:25 pm
Interesting article here  http://www.americaspace.com/?p=93456  by Jim Hillhouse: "A Review of SpaceX's Launch Manifest History".  Seems thorough and well researched, with a good discussion at the end correcting a few details.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 06/15/2016 01:49 pm
Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Quote
Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

This early July launch could be JCSat 16. Unless the spacecraft is not at the launch site yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 06/15/2016 04:03 pm
Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Quote
Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

This early July launch could be JCSat 16. Unless the spacecraft is not at the launch site yet.
Seems as likely to be a misunderstanding as a real attempt to fill in a launch slot.  We're going to get an unannounced launch barely over two weeks from today, when they just launched today?  Seems very unlikely.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/15/2016 05:10 pm
"Missed it by THAT much!" 8)

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525)

Eutelsat 117 B is 1963 kg!  :P
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dmc6960 on 06/15/2016 06:31 pm

Last 10 Edits:
6/16 Eutelsat/ABS mission above the line
6/16 Moved Formosat/Sherpa to after Iridium Flight 1 + 3 day min assumed turnaround at VAFB (this thread)
6/16 Moved all 7 Iridium Flights to the minimum 3 month launch interval (this thread)


Curious on today's edits...

Where did this data of a 3 day turnaround between Iridium 1 and Formosat come from?  Seems unrealistic.  Only data I can find is that Iridium will come first with a NET of Sept 12th.  Don't make launch day predictions without hard data.  Keep reasonable speculation to the month or quarter.  Recommend remark Formosat as NET Sept, or Q3 like SFN reports.

Regarding the 3 month interval between Iridium flights; thats only between the first and 2nd launch (insurance requirement).  All other launches after that do not have this restriction.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 06/15/2016 06:36 pm

Last 10 Edits:
6/16 Eutelsat/ABS mission above the line
6/16 Moved Formosat/Sherpa to after Iridium Flight 1 + 3 day min assumed turnaround at VAFB (this thread)
6/16 Moved all 7 Iridium Flights to the minimum 3 month launch interval (this thread)


Curious on today's edits...

Where did this data of a 3 day turnaround between Iridium 1 and Formosat come from?  Seems unrealistic.  Only data I can find is that Iridium will come first with a NET of Sept 12th.  Don't make launch day predictions without hard data.  Keep reasonable speculation to the month or quarter.  Recommend remark Formosat as NET Sept, or Q3 like SFN reports.

Regarding the 3 month interval between Iridium flights; thats only between the first and 2nd launch (insurance requirement).  All other launches after that do not have this restriction.

The three-day turnaround refers to the WorldView 4 launch on September 15.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/16/2016 01:31 pm
Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Quote
Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

The idea of another flight before CRS-9 can officially be put to rest. The launch manifest on the SpaceX (http://www.spacex.com/missions) website is now showing CRS-9 as the next flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cscott on 06/16/2016 02:07 pm
Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Quote
Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

The idea of another flight before CRS-9 can officially be put to rest. The launch manifest on the SpaceX (http://www.spacex.com/missions) website is now showing CRS-9 as the next flight.
That same page doesn't list the eutelsat mission anywhere, either as completed or upcoming, so l'd take its accuracy with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dmc6960 on 06/16/2016 02:51 pm
That same page doesn't list the eutelsat mission anywhere, either as completed or upcoming, so l'd take its accuracy with a grain of salt.

Yesterday it listed the Eutelsat mission as the next mission.  So whomever updated it for CRS-9 didn't put it in the completed list like they should have.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/16/2016 02:56 pm
That same page doesn't list the eutelsat mission anywhere, either as completed or upcoming, so l'd take its accuracy with a grain of salt.

Yesterday it listed the Eutelsat mission as the next mission.  So whomever updated it for CRS-9 didn't put it in the completed list like they should have.

This is a common practice, I've noticed watching this page. SpaceX seems to wait a few days to make sure that the satellites are in good working condition before moving the missions to the complete list. In the past, they've been slow to update the next mission box. Maybe the new communication director has something to do with this?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/16/2016 03:09 pm
Since Musk specifically mentioned 2 RD in 2020 you may want to start adding 2020 flights:

RD-2 NET 2020-5
RD-3 NET 2020-6

Also add the CRS for the year if the number of CRS flights for 2020 can be found.
Until D2 does its first manned flight demo, the schedule for when the up to 6 operation flights is unknown as to how many and which years.

Only 6 months and 2020 will be just 3 years away. The 3 years into the future is the start of the launch scheduling gate. Getting on the range schedule early for SpaceX may become more important because of the higher number of launches. First come first served policy at the ranges.

Added: With 18 flights for 2017 out of the eastern range that is a flight every 20 days. So getting on the schedule early for things like CRS, CC and RD will be very important because they are the most difficult to schedule and reschedule. Rescheduling RD means waiting another 780 days. There are also other launches for NASA already on the range schedule for 2020 to go to Mars.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/16/2016 04:18 pm
If we are looking that far ahead, Musk has stated that SpaceX will launch something to Mars at each opportunity
http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm shows the following optimum dates for the next six opportunities

5/2/2018     (Red Dragon)
6/19/2020
8/9/2022
9/26/2024
11/16/2026
1/4/2029

At some point SpaceX will launch earlier and stage in orbit, but for now, these would be good (red) placeholders
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 06/16/2016 04:40 pm
"Missed it by THAT much!" 8)

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525)

Eutelsat 117 B is 1963 kg!  :P

Yea, I rounded it off, because I could not find an exact value for ABS-2A, so I figured someday someone would point out that it's not 2243 kg.  Both numbers are based on a 4200kg total weight, which I assume is also rounded off to some degree.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/16/2016 07:05 pm
"Missed it by THAT much!" 8)

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525)

Eutelsat 117 B is 1963 kg!  :P

Yea, I rounded it off, because I could not find an exact value for ABS-2A, so I figured someday someone would point out that it's not 2243 kg.  Both numbers are based on a 4200kg total weight, which I assume is also rounded off to some degree.

And I highly encourage rounding to at least 10's, as there are probably a bunch of little pieces in the few kilogram range that make the "payload mass" dependent on exactly what is included.  That is, going down to the kilogram is probably false precision.

That's why it might be more appropriate for large payloads, like Dragon, to state the payload mass in tons. (metric, of course)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 06/16/2016 09:25 pm
For Iridium NEXT launches:
http://spacenews.com/iridiums-spacex-launch-slowed-by-vandenberg-bottleneck/
the article gives better estimate for payload mass, 9,600 kg total:
Quote
Each Iridium Next satellite will weigh 860 kilograms at launch, for a total satellite payload mass of 8,600 kilograms, plus the 1,000-kilogram dispenser, which will make it one of heavier missions for SpaceX.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/16/2016 10:03 pm
Launch time for SpX-10 on November 11 is estimated to be 8:22 AM EST.  (Daylight savings time will end the previous weekend.)  This is based on the orbit precessing 5.02 degrees/day to the west, causing the launch window to get 20.08 minutes earlier each day.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 06/20/2016 01:07 pm

2022-08     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-4 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A
2024-09     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A
2026-11     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A
2029-01     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A


Shouldn't this be:

2022-08     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A
2024-09     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A
2026-11     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A
2029-01     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/20/2016 01:16 pm
We have absolutely no idea what rockets will be launching from where in the 2020's for the SpaceX campaigns to Mars, or what their payloads will be.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 06/20/2016 01:21 pm
I think that it's also worth noting that every launch after Red Dragon 1 in 2018 is notional. From what Elon has said, the progress will be dependent on a successful mission. So, Mission 'B' won't happen until there's been a successful 'Mission A'.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 06/20/2016 02:07 pm
One more detail on schedule of the Iridium NEXT flights:

The three-month gap applies ONLY to the period between the first and second launches:
Quote
The creditors and Iridium’s insurance underwriters had also asked that the first batch of satellites be tested for three months in orbit before a second batch was launched, to verify their design and performance.
http://spacenews.com/iridiums-spacex-launch-slowed-by-vandenberg-bottleneck/

After that, the launches are planned every two months:
Quote
A second 10-satellite SpaceX launch would occur in October, with the five remaining launches occurring every 60 days thereafter, Iridium Chief Executive Matthew J. Desch said in a conference call with investors.
http://spacenews.com/iridium-frustrated-by-russian-red-tape-to-launch-first-10-iridium-next-satellites-with-spacex-in-july/

Also, from the first SN article:
Quote
...That would mean a second launch no earlier than December, at the earliest. Desch said Iridium’s goal of having all Iridium Next satellites in service by the end of 2017 would be a challenge but was still feasible

According to these quotes, the Iridium flights should look like this:

2016-09-12...Iridium NEXT (Flight 1)
2016-12........Iridium NEXT (Flight 2)
2017-02........Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)
2017-04........Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)
2017-06........Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)
2017-08........Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)
2017-10........Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 06/20/2016 02:08 pm
I think that it's also worth noting that every launch after Red Dragon 1 in 2018 is notional.

I think we are all aware of this.

However, if the manifest includes these speculative post 2018 launches, it should use the best information available. And the WaPo interview says, that Spacex hopes that the 2022 launch window will see the first unmanned flight of the MCT to Mars.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/20/2016 03:54 pm
We have absolutely no idea what rockets will be launching from where in the 2020's for the SpaceX campaigns to Mars, or what their payloads will be.

I wholeheartedly agree.

My strong preference is not to fill blank spaces with guesses.  It would be better to put TBD for the rocket, the launch site, and the payload mass,  even the target orbit.  (They could launch to a staging orbit with some future architecture.) 
Let's just put in what SpaceX, satellite manufacturers, the range and others "in the know" have stated, and keep this free of conjecture.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Okie_Steve on 06/21/2016 02:46 am
We could do like the old map makers did and just say "Here there be dragons" - ducks  ;D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 06/21/2016 06:42 am
a little correction:
Quote
...
2017-06     F9                       CCCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test                  LC39A
...
2017-08     F9                       CREW Dragon (In-flight Abort Test)         LC39A
...
- it's the same thing listed twice
so it would be better to remove one - AND - in the line left it would be nice to show "SUB" or "no orbit" in "ORB" column.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/21/2016 10:14 pm
CRS-9 is now July 18 at 12:45am EDT (UTC-4)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 06/21/2016 10:25 pm
sources:

jeff_foust: NASA announces next SpaceX cargo mission to the ISS slips 2 days to July 18: https://t.co/5RdET2VJbX
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/745376787908026368

flatoday_jdean: NASA says SpaceX's next ISS cargo launch now NET 12:45am ET July 18 (was July 16).
https://twitter.com/flatoday_jdean/status/745379994105323520
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/23/2016 10:03 am
Cross-posting:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 6m6 minutes ago

Spacecom of Israel: We are planning for an Aug. 22 launch, on SpaceX Falcon 9, of our Amos-6 Ku-/Ka-band telecom sat for 4 deg W.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/28/2016 02:39 pm
The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Robotbeat on 06/28/2016 02:44 pm
The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.
That all sounds exactly like what we heard earlier. 1 flight in 2018, at least 2 in 2020, MCT in 2022, and hopefully people in 2024/5 if all goes according to plan is what Musk said earlier.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/28/2016 04:10 pm
The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.
That all sounds exactly like what we heard earlier. 1 flight in 2018, at least 2 in 2020, MCT in 2022, and hopefully people in 2024/5 if all goes according to plan is what Musk said earlier.

Thanks, but can you point (link?) to either that discussion or the WashPo article?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/28/2016 04:15 pm
Thanks, but can you point (link?) to either that discussion or the WashPo article?
Washington Post: Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ mission to Mars (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Robotbeat on 06/28/2016 05:12 pm
The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.
That all sounds exactly like what we heard earlier. 1 flight in 2018, at least 2 in 2020, MCT in 2022, and hopefully people in 2024/5 if all goes according to plan is what Musk said earlier.

Thanks, but can you point (link?) to either that discussion or the WashPo article?

In general, stuff like this is posted in the MCT update thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37839.msg1547509#msg1547509
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 07/04/2016 09:03 pm
LAUNCH ALERT
                 
                              Brian Webb
                    Ventura County, California
                  [email protected]
                        www.spacearchive.info
             
                                  2016 July 2 (Saturday) 12:32 PDT
----------------------------------------------------------------------

                            RUNNING LATE

This issue and the previous issue of Launch Alert were published late
due to my being on back-to-back business trips (two weeks in Milpitas,
California followed immediately by two weeks in Bedford, New
Hampshire).

----------------------------------------------------------------------

                  VANDENBERG AFB LAUNCH SCHEDULE

                    Launch
                  Time/Window
  Date              (PST/PDT)              Vehicle          Pad/Silo
--------        -----------------        -------------      --------

SEP 12          To be announced          Falcon 9            SLC-4E
Vehicle will launch 10 Iridium Next low-altitude commercial
communications satellites 

SEP 15          To be announced          Atlas V            SLC-3E
Vehicle will launch the WoldView 4 earth observation satellite for
DigitalGlobe 

OCT            To be announced          Minotaur C          SLC-576E
Vehicle will launch six SkySat earth observation satellites 

OCT-DEC        To be announced          Falcon 9            SLC-4E
Vehicle will launch Taiwan's Formosat 5 satellite and the Sherpa
dispenser carrying several small payloads 

DEC 1          To be announced          Atlas V            SLC-3E
Vehicle will launch the classified NROL-79 payload for the U.S.
National Reconnaissance Office 

DEC            To be announced          Falcon 9            SLC-4E
Vehicle will launch 10 Iridium Next low-altitude commercial
communications satellites 

The above schedule is a composite of unclassified information
approved for public release from government, industry, and other
sources. It represents the Editor's best effort to produce a schedule,
but may disagree with other sources. Details on military launches are
withheld until they are approved for public release. For official
information regarding Vandenberg AFB activities, go to
http://www.vandenberg.af.mil.

All launch dates and times are given in Pacific Time using a 24-hour
format similar to military time (midnight = 00:00, 1:00 p.m. = 13:00,
11:00 p.m. = 23:00, etc.).

The dates and times in this schedule may not agree with those on other
online launch schedules, including the official Vandenberg AFB
schedule because different sources were used, the information was
interpreted differently, and the schedules were updated at different
times.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Copyright 2016, Brian Webb. All rights reserved. No portion of this
newsletter may be used without identifying Launch Alert as the
source and providing a functioning hyperlink or text that point to
http://www.spacearchive.info/newsletter.htm.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/05/2016 05:12 pm
Quote


NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
.
.
.
2017-06     F9                       CCCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)                  LC39A
.
.
.
2017-08     F9                       CREW Dragon (In-flight Abort Test)         LC39A



Still have two of these.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: First Mate Rummey on 07/06/2016 02:57 pm
BTW, wikipedia has a nicely formatted page with past and planned Falcon launches, now also with some graphs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches
It also can be updated by everyone, so it is usually up to date and error-free.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 07/06/2016 03:25 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their launch schedule reporting that:

The first Iridium-NEXT mission on September 12 will launch at 05:33 UTC (it will be 10:33 PM PDT on the 11th).

SpaceX CRS-10 is now scheduled for November 11, 2016, but the launch time is unknown unless that one person who thought it would be 8:22 AM was right all along.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 07/07/2016 07:09 am
Spaceflight Now updated their launch schedule reporting that:

The first Iridium-NEXT mission on September 12 will launch at 05:33 UTC (it will be 10:33 PM PDT on the 11th).

SpaceX CRS-10 is now scheduled for November 11, 2016, but the launch time is unknown unless that one person who thought it would be 8:22 AM was right all along.
lets try to stick to range approved info whenever possible. peoples flipping a coin and guessing a launch time when the Western Range is down for long term upgrades and maintenance and is not even sure when it will be ready support flights again should be considered. Given my statement take your information with a grain of salt and consider all dates as a NET until the range says they are ready to commit to flights from VAFB.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/07/2016 04:19 pm
Spaceflight Now updated their launch schedule reporting that:

The first Iridium-NEXT mission on September 12 will launch at 05:33 UTC (it will be 10:33 PM PDT on the 11th).

SpaceX CRS-10 is now scheduled for November 11, 2016, but the launch time is unknown unless that one person who thought it would be 8:22 AM was right all along.
lets try to stick to range approved info whenever possible. peoples flipping a coin and guessing a launch time when the Western Range is down for long term upgrades and maintenance and is not even sure when it will be ready support flights again should be considered. Given my statement take your information with a grain of salt and consider all dates as a NET until the range says they are ready to commit to flights from VAFB.

The projected launch time for CRS-10 is not a coin flip or a guess.  It is a calculation based on the orbital precession of the ISS.  Of course, it is approximate,(Spaceflight101 has it more than an hour later)  but adjustments won't change the tactical aspects that it will be a mid-morning launch if it goes on that date.  We can more confidently predict (guess) that the launch will slip, based on past experience, but it is still helpful to post some date, while acknowledging that it is "NET".
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/18/2016 06:20 am
From CRS-9 Post Launch Press Conference:
Hans said JCSAT 16 first half of August, AMOS 6 towards end of August.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/18/2016 05:27 pm
From FLORIDA SPACErePORT (http://spacereport.blogspot.co.uk) on Sunday 17th:

"SpaceX is planning to fly a booster that landed on a drone ship in the ocean on April 8, Hans Koenigsmann, SpaceX's vice president of flight reliability, said during a press conference Saturday. (It's still unclear, however, which mission will fly aboard the rocket.)"

That would be Core no. 23, the one used for CRS-8, and the flight is planned for "September or October".

Reposted here for clarification purposes.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gospacex on 07/19/2016 01:42 pm
Please update the table
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/19/2016 03:14 pm
(Provisional) dates for SpX-11 and SpX-12 here (filtered for Falcon launches):

Current schedule of ISS flight events
UTC time is used in table

2016
November 11 - Dragon (SpX-10) launch

2017
February 1 - Dragon (SpX-11) launch
May - Dragon v2 (SpX-DM1) unmanned launch
June 1 - Dragon (SpX-12) launch
September - Dragon (SpX-13) launch
late - Dragon v2 (SpX-DM2) launch [Hurley, Williams]

And can we please have Sunday/Monday's SpX-9 moved to the "win" column?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/20/2016 12:53 pm
Apologies on the late update for CRS-9, I  must have pushed the wrong button on Monday.  Sorry!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/20/2016 02:27 pm
Apologies on the late update for CRS-9, I  must have pushed the wrong button on Monday.  Sorry!

It's good to see it.  Thanks
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 07/20/2016 04:35 pm
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.

Hans was asked at the CRS-9 post-launch press conference about the upcoming missions. He said that JCSat-16 is the next launch in the first part of August followed by Amos-6 towards the end of August.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 07/20/2016 05:01 pm
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.

Hans was asked at the CRS-9 post-launch press conference about the upcoming missions. He said that JCSat-16 is the next launch in the first part of August followed by Amos-6 towards the end of August.

That's hardly a confirmed date.  At best that's a Aug 1-10 window.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: IntoTheVoid on 07/20/2016 06:06 pm
Apologies on the late update for CRS-9, I  must have pushed the wrong button on Monday.  Sorry!

It's good to see it.  Thanks
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.

Early Aug is inherently NET 1 Aug. Doesn't mean it will launch then, it's just a NET.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/20/2016 06:08 pm
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.

Hans was asked at the CRS-9 post-launch press conference about the upcoming missions. He said that JCSat-16 is the next launch in the first part of August followed by Amos-6 towards the end of August.
At 21 day intervals that is 8 Aug for JCSAT and 29 Aug for AMOS.

Anything later than 8 Aug and AMOS would launch in Sept. I know SpaceX has done 13 day turnaround before but their biggest problem at the moment is not Pad turnaround but booster manufacture and acceptance test.

That's hardly a confirmed date.  At best that's a Aug 1-10 window.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/20/2016 07:00 pm
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.

Hans was asked at the CRS-9 post-launch press conference about the upcoming missions. He said that JCSat-16 is the next launch in the first part of August followed by Amos-6 towards the end of August.

That's hardly a confirmed date.  At best that's a Aug 1-10 window.

Understood, but when spoken by the SpaceX guy at the Cape, that is Good Enough -- we can at least show the intent with some conservative No-Earlier-Than dates, I think?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 07/20/2016 08:23 pm
Understood, but when spoken by the SpaceX guy at the Cape, that is Good Enough -- we can at least show the intent with some conservative No-Earlier-Than dates, I think?
The problem is that NET dates generally communicate an actual attempt to make that date.  It could confuse people if they think the source of the NET date is SpaceX and there is an intent to make that date, when in fact that is not the case.  I could say that JCSat-16 launches NET tomorrow and be just as correct as that August 1st date.  I think it's better to stick to the information we have which is NET 1st half August.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dante2308 on 07/20/2016 09:49 pm
JCSat-16 launch is now listed for Aug 1.
What's the basis for that?
It's not in the JCSat-16 Update thread.

Hans was asked at the CRS-9 post-launch press conference about the upcoming missions. He said that JCSat-16 is the next launch in the first part of August followed by Amos-6 towards the end of August.

That's hardly a confirmed date.  At best that's a Aug 1-10 window.

Understood, but when spoken by the SpaceX guy at the Cape, that is Good Enough -- we can at least show the intent with some conservative No-Earlier-Than dates, I think?

Please don't put down specific dates unless there is a source. At this point, that list served as a news update for me and I really thought there had been news. Please keep the dates credible. NET early August is NET Early August, not NET August 1 00:01 UTC
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/20/2016 10:07 pm
I seem to recall a since deleted post in this thread recently where someone copied entries from another schedule (Salo's?) that had it as August 1 at the time.  That's probably where starhawk92 picked up the date.  But it was never actually announced anywhere as August 1.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 07/21/2016 01:43 pm
Correction for:
Quote
2017-03     FHeavy                   US Air Force (STP-2)          MEO          LC39A
2017-03     FHeavy                   ELaNa XV                      LEO  60x18   LC39A
- these two lines are the same launch: "ELaNa XV" is just one of piggyback payloads for STP-2.
See, e.g., slide 3 in this LSP presentation:
http://mstl.atl.calpoly.edu/~workshop/archive/2016/Spring/Day%201/Session%203/3_ScottHigginbotham.pdf
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 07/21/2016 03:22 pm
FWIW,
Florida’s Space Coast Office of Tourism has
Aug 17, 2016
as launch date for JCSAT-16
http://www.visitspacecoast.com/event/falcon-9-spacex-jcsat-16/18248/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 07/21/2016 06:06 pm
Could Core #23 be used for the EchoStar 23 mission, which is scheduled between September and November?

I ask that because SpaceX plans on reflying #23 between September and October.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/21/2016 06:13 pm
We don't have any information on what the payload will be for the reuse flight, and at this point randomly speculating on what it may be based on the last set of highly speculative dates thrown out in a press conference doesn't seem terribly useful.  Even if we know a date range it doesn't have to be a payload that was originally scheduled to fly that month.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/21/2016 06:29 pm
Could Core #23 be used for the EchoStar 23 mission, which is scheduled between September and November?

I ask that because SpaceX plans on reflying #23 between September and October.
I agree with gongora
"Could" is a question for another discussion thread.  It is not a discussion of the manifest, which we are trying to piece together from statements by SpaceX, the range, the customers, and others in positions to know launch date projections.
When SpaceX announces the second launch of core #23, it will be included on the list.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/22/2016 03:33 pm
This appears to be the FCC transmitter application for the JCSAT-16 stage recovery operations:

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=72213&RequestTimeout=1000

Drone ship coordinates:

          North  28  6  11    West  74  34  0

For the last several GTO launches, since SES-9, the drone ship coordinates have varied little, within a few miles, so it seems SpaceX has got the GTO recovery trajectory dialed in, with only slight variations, probably for varying payload mass.

Reposted here by myself from the JCSAT-16 update thread; application has a start date of 7/15/2016, in support of the launch date suggested upthread.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Urx on 07/24/2016 10:20 pm

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2016-04-08  F9(23)       OCISLY      Dragon (CRS-8) [3]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-07-18  F9(27)       RTLS        Dragon (CRS-9) [7]            LEO  10000   LC40
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-11-11  F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS-10)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-02     F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS-11)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-06     F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS-12)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-09     F9                       Dragon (CRS-13)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-02     F9                       Dragon (CRS-14)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-04     F9                       Dragon (CRS-15)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-08     F9                       Dragon (CRS-16)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-10     F9                       Dragon (CRS-17)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-12     F9                       Dragon (CRS-18)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019-05     F9                       Dragon (CRS-19)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                       Dragon (CRS-20)               LEO  10000   LC40

MASS: kilograms

I don't understand why is mass always 10 t? According to http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=14694.msg324965#msg324965 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=14694.msg324965#msg324965) the dry mass is 4200, and the projected upmass of CRS missions 9-15 can be found in Table 3 of https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-025.pdf (https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-025.pdf). So the only missing number is the fuel?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/25/2016 06:11 pm
Urx,

Never really thought about it that much -- kinda assumed the payloads were fluid and could change right up to the last minute.  I appreciate you providing a reference and will try to get the information integrated soon.

Thanks and welcome!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/25/2016 10:04 pm
Do we have any more recent references for Dragon mass?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/25/2016 10:33 pm
I don't understand why is mass always 10 t? According to http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=14694.msg324965#msg324965 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=14694.msg324965#msg324965) the dry mass is 4200, and the projected upmass of CRS missions 9-15 can be found in Table 3 of https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-025.pdf (https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-025.pdf). So the only missing number is the fuel?

What, specifically is your question?
Is it why the list has a one and four zeros when there must be variations of hundreds of kilograms?
Is it the 10 mT number itself, and you think it should be less?
The table you cite has the same value for SpX-12 through SpX-15, 3,310 kg, a number higher than achieved to date.  This seems to assume that NASA gets more efficient at packing and hits precisely some theoretical maximum for each launch. 
This is why I suggested a more general and rounded number, like "10 T" until SpaceX announces a total mass value.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/26/2016 03:51 pm
Comga,

Do your number mean the mass of the Dragon itself is somewhere around 6600 kg?  Or are there other "pieces" to the total?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 07/26/2016 03:57 pm
I don't understand why is mass always 10 t? According to http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=14694.msg324965#msg324965 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=14694.msg324965#msg324965) the dry mass is 4200, and the projected upmass of CRS missions 9-15 can be found in Table 3 of https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-025.pdf (https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-025.pdf). So the only missing number is the fuel?

What, specifically is your question?
Is it why the list has a one and four zeros when there must be variations of hundreds of kilograms?
Is it the 10 mT number itself, and you think it should be less?
The table you cite has the same value for SpX-12 through SpX-15, 3,310 kg, a number higher than achieved to date.  This seems to assume that NASA gets more efficient at packing and hits precisely some theoretical maximum for each launch. 
This is why I suggested a more general and rounded number, like "10 T" until SpaceX announces a total mass value.
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/26/2016 04:33 pm
Comga,

Does your number mean the mass of the Dragon itself is somewhere around 6600 kg?  Or are there other "pieces" to the total?

I have no idea, and did not mean to imply that.
The future upmass seems to assume an ideal packing
russianhalo117 states that total mass could go as high as 14 T.
My conclusion is that we really don't know the total mass, for past or future launches, so the manifest should list an approximate round number.
Just like not putting in a specific date while there remains a range of possibilities, my preference is to keep the list free of guesses.  They don't serve a purpose other than to start debates.

PS The Amos-6 launch could list an NET date of 2016-08-22 based on this post (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.msg1553132#msg1553132) which is based on this tweet from Peter B. de Selding. (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/26/2016 04:46 pm
PS The Amos-6 launch could list an NET date of 2016-08-22 based on this post (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.msg1553132#msg1553132) which is based on this tweet from Peter B. de Selding. (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401)

We've seen a few hints that JCSAT-16 will be closer to mid-August than the beginning of August, so Amos 6 is likely to move to the right a bit.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 07/26/2016 05:09 pm
PS The Amos-6 launch could list an NET date of 2016-08-22 based on this post (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.msg1553132#msg1553132) which is based on this tweet from Peter B. de Selding. (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401)

That puts JCSAT-16 and AMOS-6 five days apart.  The NSF forums may explode with the forthcoming debate, hold on to your hats!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/26/2016 05:27 pm
PS The Amos-6 launch could list an NET date of 2016-08-22 based on this post (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.msg1553132#msg1553132) which is based on this tweet from Peter B. de Selding. (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401)

That puts JCSAT-16 and AMOS-6 five days apart.  The NSF forums may explode with the forthcoming debate, hold on to your hats!!

Only if we believe the 8/17 date for JCSAT-16 and assume there is no slip of AMOS-6 from that NET date.
Do you still believe that's the launch date for JCSAT-16?

Either way, it is the information we have.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 07/26/2016 05:57 pm
FWIW,
Florida’s Space Coast Office of Tourism has
Aug 17, 2016
as launch date for JCSAT-16
http://www.visitspacecoast.com/event/falcon-9-spacex-jcsat-16/18248/

I would not take the dates posted on that site seriously. They have CRS-11 (or CRS-II as it is in its original spelling) scheduled for August 15, just 2 days before JCSAT-16.
link to the  CRS-11 launch page (http://www.visitspacecoast.com/event/falcon-9-spacex-crs-11-rocket-launch/17822/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/26/2016 08:06 pm
FWIW,
Florida’s Space Coast Office of Tourism has
Aug 17, 2016
as launch date for JCSAT-16
http://www.visitspacecoast.com/event/falcon-9-spacex-jcsat-16/18248/

I would not take the dates posted on that site seriously. They have CRS-11 (or CRS-II as it is in its original spelling) scheduled for August 15, just 2 days before JCSAT-16.
link to the  CRS-11 launch page (http://www.visitspacecoast.com/event/falcon-9-spacex-crs-11-rocket-launch/17822/)

At least they are not charging for the privilege of watching a launch that won't happen:
Quote
Falcon 9 - SpaceX CRS II- Rocket Launch
Dates:  August 15, 2016
Time: TBD
Admission:  Free viewing from designated Public Viewing Areas

:P
Funny.  Just noticed their date is moved back from 8/17 to 8/15.
I'm with telski and don't trust this site
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Urx on 07/26/2016 10:13 pm
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.

I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: whitelancer64 on 07/26/2016 11:18 pm
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.

I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

Don't forget the mass of the cargo and the trunk.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 07/26/2016 11:27 pm
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.

I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

We are wandering from the manifest, even though we are working on a datum in a far right column.
How do you get 4-6 m^3?

4.2 T dry weight  (does this include the trunk?  I think not.)
3.3 T payload (internal and external per table above)
10 T total leaves
3.5 T fuel (sounds high)  (and trunk?)
1.4 average density of fuel and oxidizer?
2.5 m^3 fuel (minus adjustment for trunk, but it still sounds high)
Or maybe 10 T is not correct.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Urx on 07/27/2016 07:47 am
I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

Don't forget the mass of the cargo and the trunk.

Thanks! I totally forgot about the trunk  :o

We are wandering from the manifest, even though we are working on a datum in a far right column.
How do you get 4-6 m^3?

1) see my comment above to whitelancer64
2) I assumed wet to mean fuelled but no payload, otherwise similar math and assumptions.

So what I was aiming at originally: Instead of 10000 I'd like to see a more precise estimate where available. Btw, the numbers for some past missions are in Table 4.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/27/2016 09:10 am
So looks like only one launch now in August, hopefully 2 (or more?) in September, depending on when next Vandenburg launch is:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 20m20 minutes ago

New target date for SpaceX launch of Spacecom's Amos-6 geo telecom satellite is 3-4 Sept (was 22 Aug.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758222044911771648 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758222044911771648)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/28/2016 02:01 pm
New launch date for the first Iridium flight,

Tweet from Stephen Clark (https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/758627075355836416)
Quote
Iridium says first 10 next-gen satellites begin shipping to VAFB next week. Falcon 9 launch Sept. 19 at 9:49pm PDT  http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=981626 (http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=981626)

Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758642807699546113)
Quote
IRDM CEO: Slight SpaceX delay to mid-Sept is one-time issue, SpaceX says wont recur in Dec launch (need 3 mnths between 1st & 2d launches).

Tweet from Stephen Clark (https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/758647334976626688)
Quote
Iridium’s Matt Desch: SpaceX has assured me they will have rockets available for our launches every 60 days next year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Shanuson on 07/28/2016 07:55 pm
Quote
Tweet from Jeff Foust:  (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/758710766690271232)
Wayne Hale talking about NAC HEO committee meeting this week, showing this detailed chart of ISS operations:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cod7a9dWgAAG3g6.jpg:large)

and

Quote
Tweet from Jeff Foust:  (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/758711069565153280)
The chart goes out through August 2017, and includes the two SpaceX comm’l crew demo launches (5/17 and 8/24) currently scheduled.
3 retweets 4 likes

Also  the Chart shows SpX-10 at the ISS from Nov 13th to Dez 20th 2016, SpX-11 from Feb. 3rd to March 5th 2017, and SpX-12 from June 3rd to July 3rd 2017

Since all those dates are time at the ISS the launch should be a 1-3 days before I think.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/28/2016 08:58 pm
The two rows at the bottom of the FPIP with pictures of rockets are launch dates (US/Europe/Japan on the top row and Russia on the bottom row).  And you really shouldn't believe that they are exact dates more than a couple months ahead of time (and maybe not even then).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 07/30/2016 02:28 pm
The first post is out of date with the new reported NET dates for Amos-6 and the first Iridium.

Salo is now reporting that SES-10 and Echostar 23 are now NET October. This seems likely with the slip of Iridium to late September.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 07/31/2016 12:56 pm
Are there plans for designating flights the will or have used a reflown core?
If not, I suggest using an asterisk (*) after the vehicle type until core number is known, then use core number with a reflight number (e.g., 23-1 for first reflight of the CRS-8 booster).

So far, best intelligence is that both upcoming SES flights will be on reflown cores.  Any others?

We should start hearing soon of new sales for reflown cores and can designate them accordingly as they are added to the manifest.  Expect a batch of quick sales after (maybe even before) the first reflight -- SES-10 in September.  There may also be some flights converting to reflown cores that are already on manifest as happened with SES.

By the way, thanks starhawk9 and all for starting and maintaining this thread.  Best reference available!!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/31/2016 02:30 pm
There is not going to be any sudden rush to buy reused cores, especially before one has flown. I haven't seen anything to suggest both SES flights will be on used boosters. SES 10 has been shown as a 4th quarter launch on the SES site for quite awhile now, and I haven't seen anything to suggest it will fly sooner.  Let's give SpaceX a chance to actually qualify a booster for reflight and their customers a chance to get comfortable with the idea before we start assuming everything will suddenly start flying on reused cores.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: guckyfan on 07/31/2016 02:53 pm
Moved because OT here.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40837.msg1565251#msg1565251
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/31/2016 06:05 pm
Changes needed:

For JCSAT 16:
Per L2 KSC/Cape Planning (subject to change, per NET targets - heck they even moved one up this year, and so on):

NET August 14, 0126-0326L. 24 hour delay will result in the same window on the 15.
...

For AMOS 6:
Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 20m20 minutes ago

New target date for SpaceX launch of Spacecom's Amos-6 geo telecom satellite is 3-4 Sept (was 22 Aug.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758222044911771648 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758222044911771648)

For Iridium:
New launch date for the first Iridium flight,

Tweet from Stephen Clark (https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/758627075355836416)
Quote
Iridium says first 10 next-gen satellites begin shipping to VAFB next week. Falcon 9 launch Sept. 19 at 9:49pm PDT  http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=981626 (http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=981626)

For SES-10: SES site shows the launch as 4Q 2016, so move to at least October.

For Es'hail 2:
Quote
2016
...
4th quarter - Es’hail 2 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
...

- On the customers page
https://www.eshailsat.qa/en/satellites
this launch is scheduled for Q3 2017
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/31/2016 06:16 pm
For Echostar 23 their company launch calendar (http://www.echostarsatelliteservices.com/LaunchCountdown) shows 3Q/4Q 2016.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: neoforce on 08/01/2016 03:17 pm
Are there plans for designating flights the will or have used a reflown core?
If not, I suggest using an asterisk (*) after the vehicle type until core number is known, then use core number with a reflight number (e.g., 23-1 for first reflight of the CRS-8 booster).

...

I'm sure starhawk will come up with a good convention. 

One suggestion for him is that rather an asterisk it becomes highlighted in green.    I also like the idea of leaving the cores as is right now "F9(23)" and when the core is reused go back and edit the original to "F9(23-1)" the second flight use as "F9(23-2)" and so on. 

But I'll be happy to leave it to starhawk, he has done a great job on this chart!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: schaban on 08/01/2016 04:57 pm
One suggestion for him is that rather an asterisk it becomes highlighted in green.

color highlights should be distinct enough for color blind...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/01/2016 06:50 pm
Are there plans for designating flights the will or have used a reflown core?
If not, I suggest using an asterisk (*) after the vehicle type until core number is known, then use core number with a reflight number (e.g., 23-1 for first reflight of the CRS-8 booster).

...

I'm sure starhawk will come up with a good convention. 

One suggestion for him is that rather an asterisk it becomes highlighted in green.    I also like the idea of leaving the cores as is right now "F9(23)" and when the core is reused go back and edit the original to "F9(23-1)" the second flight use as "F9(23-2)" and so on. 

But I'll be happy to leave it to starhawk, he has done a great job on this chart!

Apologies for being a bit stubborn, but the zeroth flight of a core (new core) could be left as-is, and reflights  numbered... doesn't make any difference which convention is used.  We'll let the one doing all the work decide which makes most sense.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/02/2016 02:46 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/760380210835550208)
Quote
SES: We expect SES-10 satellite, w/ 27 incremental xponders + replacement of AMC-3/-4 over LatAm, to launch in October on SpaceX Falcon 9.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/02/2016 04:57 pm
Take a vacation or two and this place goes crazy!!  I am working on all the updates, thanks to everyone who has contributed!

I will try to be as up-to-date as possible before the week is over.

Thanks again, all!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/02/2016 05:08 pm
Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/02/2016 05:35 pm
Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

I wouldn't consider the CC dates stable, but we can only put down the best information we have :)  When you say there are only two dates instead of three, I'm assuming you mean May and August?  The in-flight abort is not a CCTCAP milestone (it's left over from the previous contract) and won't appear on CCTCAP updates.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: whitelancer64 on 08/02/2016 05:41 pm
Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

Actually, launch dates for flights to the ISS are notoriously unstable - there are so many competing variables that cause delays and slips in the schedule.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 08/02/2016 08:41 pm
Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 12 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 24 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

I wouldn't consider the CC dates stable, but we can only put down the best information we have :)  When you say there are only two dates instead of three, I'm assuming you mean May and August?  The in-flight abort is not a CCTCAP milestone (it's left over from the previous contract) and won't appear on CCTCAP updates.

I agree that ISS dates are contingent on many things, but also agree that we should put down the best information that we have, some of which is embedded in the FPIP page posted above.  (That's why I added the two dates in red.)

And what's with trying to take a vacation from NSF? ::)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/03/2016 01:18 am
There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/03/2016 04:50 pm
Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 12 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 24 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

I wouldn't consider the CC dates stable, but we can only put down the best information we have :)  When you say there are only two dates instead of three, I'm assuming you mean May and August?  The in-flight abort is not a CCTCAP milestone (it's left over from the previous contract) and won't appear on CCTCAP updates.

I agree that ISS dates are contingent on many things, but also agree that we should put down the best information that we have, some of which is embedded in the FPIP page posted above.  (That's why I added the two dates in red.)

And what's with trying to take a vacation from NSF? ::)

Thanks, Comga!  Also, to be perfectly clear, it was a vacation from my job, not NSF.   :P
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/03/2016 04:52 pm
There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

I saw NASA has agreed to a second crew launch, do you have a NET year/month?

Sir, CRS-21 through CRS-26; is that quarterly over a year and a half, or three per year in 2021 and 2022?  Any insights?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/04/2016 12:00 am
There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

I saw NASA has agreed to a second crew launch, do you have a NET year/month?

Sir, CRS-21 through CRS-26; is that quarterly over a year and a half, or three per year in 2021 and 2022?  Any insights?

As far as I know, no schedule is set for either.  Russians on contract for the 2018 flights, so both crew flights probably NET 2019.  Boeing will also get a pair, so expect that they'll alternate... but just speculating.
Current crew rotation flights are about quarterly, so both SpaceX guaranteed flights could easily go in 2019?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: francesco nicoli on 08/04/2016 09:33 am
current manifest says 4 in october 2016, is that anywhere near credible?
if it is not, will be FH or one of the 4 Falcons to be delayed?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/04/2016 12:01 pm
There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

I saw NASA has agreed to a second crew launch, do you have a NET year/month?

Sir, CRS-21 through CRS-26; is that quarterly over a year and a half, or three per year in 2021 and 2022?  Any insights?

As far as I know, no schedule is set for either.  Russians on contract for the 2018 flights, so both crew flights probably NET 2019.  Boeing will also get a pair, so expect that they'll alternate... but just speculating.
Current crew rotation flights are about quarterly, so both SpaceX guaranteed flights could easily go in 2019?

How about mission names, instead of repeating the self-repeating "CREW Dragon (with Crew)"?  Should we call them ISS Crew Transport 1/2/3/4, etc?  or CCt 1/2/3/4?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/04/2016 12:05 pm
current manifest says 4 in october 2016, is that anywhere near credible?
if it is not, will be FH or one of the 4 Falcons to be delayed?

It would be surprising.  SES-10 and Echostar 23 have had date discussion recently, but SES-11 so close behind seems unlikely.

I don't think the F9 backlog will bother Heavy, they have their own timeline which includes pad, testing, transport, etc.  Just my opinion, however!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 08/04/2016 02:32 pm
I don't think the F9 backlog will bother Heavy, they have their own timeline which includes pad, testing, transport, etc.  Just my opinion, however!
It is possible SpaceX could alleviate the backlog of EC launches by utilizing 39A for F9 launches, which might then push FH back as a result.  Also worth remembering that 39A is the crew launch pad so if FH keeps slipping it might take back seat to work to support that effort, which is higher priority.

SpaceX has yet to demonstrate an ability to launch from multiple pads within the same general time window yet, so that's another bottleneck.  Having the pads so close together might help a little bit if they can't fully staff two sites yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/04/2016 02:47 pm
Probably not more than two launches in October, SES 10 and maybe Echostar 23.  SpaceX really doesn't need 39A to handle any non-Commercial Crew F9 launches in 2017, SLC-40 should be able to handle them.  A good chunk of their 2017 manifest is for Vandenberg.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 08/04/2016 03:05 pm
Probably not more than two launches in October, SES 10 and maybe Echostar 23.  SpaceX really doesn't need 39A to handle any non-Commercial Crew F9 launches in 2017, SLC-40 should be able to handle them.  A good chunk of their 2017 manifest is for Vandenberg.

It would be helpful if sometime before the end of this year they launched one from 39A and verify the whole complex through a launch.  Get it right with a F9 before trying a FH.

They may not need it, but it helps to have it operational.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 08/04/2016 03:22 pm
There is a lot of opining here.  Good discussions but....
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39181.msg1467300#msg1467300),  LC-39A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34978.msg1214626#msg1214626), SES-10 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.msg1162045#msg1162045), and all the other what-ifs and should-haves. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=45.0)
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: whitelancer64 on 08/04/2016 03:24 pm
Probably not more than two launches in October, SES 10 and maybe Echostar 23.  SpaceX really doesn't need 39A to handle any non-Commercial Crew F9 launches in 2017, SLC-40 should be able to handle them.  A good chunk of their 2017 manifest is for Vandenberg.

It would be helpful if sometime before the end of this year they launched one from 39A and verify the whole complex through a launch.  Get it right with a F9 before trying a FH.

They may not need it, but it helps to have it operational.

I thought that was always the plan? SES-10 and 11, and probably CRS-10 prior to the Falcon Heavy demo?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 08/04/2016 03:45 pm
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39181.msg1467300#msg1467300),  LC-39A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34978.msg1214626#msg1214626), SES-10 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.msg1162045#msg1162045), and all the other what-ifs and should-haves. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=45.0)
Yes, and it's called the SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4.  I'm not sure how we are supposed to discuss the SpaceX manifest without referring to FH, LC-39A, etc which all are featured in that manifest.  I feel like the majority of discussion on this thread has in fact been regarding the manifest.
Quote
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.
It sounds like you think it should be more of an Updates and less of a Discussion, which is fine, but is not the current format of the thread.  For myself, I suggested a stickied Updates thread and a separate not-stickied  Discussion thread.  But what we have is a combination of the two.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/04/2016 03:49 pm
There is a lot of opining here.  Good discussions but....
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39181.msg1467300#msg1467300),  LC-39A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34978.msg1214626#msg1214626), SES-10 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.msg1162045#msg1162045), and all the other what-ifs and should-haves. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=45.0)
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.

We don't have separate update and discussion threads for the SpaceX manifest (and I'm not sure we need separate threads).  Discussion of SES-10 came up because the manifest table currently shows an impossible number of launches for October.  Obviously some of them are not going to launch in October, hence discussion of which ones will launch.  If you don't want any discussion or questions at all then there need to be separate threads.  Personally I think we've kept this thread close enough to its purpose that we don't need to create another one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/04/2016 04:41 pm
If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts (http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/) where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-says-mobile-focus-better-suited-to-global-satellite-price-downturn/)
Quote
Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 08/04/2016 07:05 pm
Discussing whether discussion is on topic and how much discussion is... is not on topic. Yes, some discussion is ok. But please try to have it be about the manifest. That's a very narrow topic.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/05/2016 04:40 pm
There is a lot of opining here.  Good discussions but....
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39181.msg1467300#msg1467300),  LC-39A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34978.msg1214626#msg1214626), SES-10 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.msg1162045#msg1162045), and all the other what-ifs and should-haves. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=45.0)
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.

I would think appropriate discussion for this thread would include observations about past launch rates/forward tempo, when milestones for a given launch are met or missed which would impact dates, and of course the relevance of sources offered as updates.  Best possible information wins.

Status of new tech, infrastructure, and other such topics have their own thread and those who participate there would like the information -- share it there!

I don't think we've strayed too far here as yet, so please keep the updates coming!!

EDIT:  And what Lar said!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/05/2016 04:46 pm
If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts (http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/) where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-says-mobile-focus-better-suited-to-global-satellite-price-downturn/)
Quote
Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

This site says it's the 24th of 2016, which means we are missing some:
https://spacexstats.com/missions/koreasat-5a

This site says it's NET Dec-2017:
https://www.satbeams.com/satellites?id=2654

We currently have it as NET 2016-11 . . . . what to do, what to do . . . .
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/05/2016 04:50 pm
If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts (http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/) where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-says-mobile-focus-better-suited-to-global-satellite-price-downturn/)
Quote
Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.
and with the recurring Proton-M woes Inmarsat is looking into additional backup launch options according to its recent shareholders meeting. the Proton-M launch option with recent anomaly investigation delays and traditional schedule backlog delays factored in 5-F4 would either just barely make or if delays get longer not meet its current planned service activation date.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/05/2016 04:54 pm
If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts (http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/) where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-says-mobile-focus-better-suited-to-global-satellite-price-downturn/)
Quote
Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

This site says it's the 24th of 2016, which means we are missing some:
https://spacexstats.com/missions/koreasat-5a

This site says it's NET Dec-2017:
https://www.satbeams.com/satellites?id=2654

We currently have it as NET 2016-11 . . . . what to do, what to do . . . .
Koreasat-5A does not equal Inmarsat 5-F4
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/05/2016 05:22 pm
If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts (http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/) where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-says-mobile-focus-better-suited-to-global-satellite-price-downturn/)
Quote
Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.
and with the recurring Proton-M woes Inmarsat is looking into additional backup launch options according to its recent shareholders meeting. the Proton-M launch option with recent anomaly investigation delays and traditional schedule backlog delays factored in 5-F4 would either just barely make or if delays get longer not meet its current planned service activation date.

So do we think this might actually launch with SpaceX?  Seems strange to even be asking what rocket a payload will be launching on four months from now.  These are fairly heavy satellites (6100kg).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/05/2016 06:29 pm
If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts (http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/) where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-says-mobile-focus-better-suited-to-global-satellite-price-downturn/)
Quote
Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.
and with the recurring Proton-M woes Inmarsat is looking into additional backup launch options according to its recent shareholders meeting. the Proton-M launch option with recent anomaly investigation delays and traditional schedule backlog delays factored in 5-F4 would either just barely make or if delays get longer not meet its current planned service activation date.

So do we think this might actually launch with SpaceX?  Seems strange to even be asking what rocket a payload will be launching on four months from now.  These are fairly heavy satellites (6100kg).
There is not any information at this time stating a contract cancellation or change of payload or change of launcher. Inmarsat is currently leaving all launch options on the table, but is in the process of expanding its launch options because of massive schedule delays with Proton-M because that launcher has been grounded for the time being. The next Proton-M flight will now be a federal launch to satisfy ILS customers trust in the launcher but even that flight has now been given a NET date.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Dazzle on 08/07/2016 09:23 am
Many thanks for such a great reference!

One small improvement that I would recommend is changing the order of the columns.  The primary mission is the payload, not the first stage landing, so personally I would move the "1S Tgt" column to be the last (far right).

This would avoid the problem when scanning the table, for example the first Jason-3 row, where one's eye first encounters the orange unsuccessful landing on JRTI before the green successful primary mission!  I would much prefer to see the primary mission success first (and the orbit, mass, pad, etc) and then finally the first stage landing details.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 08/07/2016 12:08 pm
The order now is chronological, the first stage lands (or doesn't) before the payload is delivered.  I could see the argument for switching them so payload is just before first stage recovery, but not for putting first stage all the way to the right.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/08/2016 02:01 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/762625461952319488)
Quote
Spaceflight: 90-sat Sherpa tug on Q4 SpaceX launch is sold out. Space available for Q4 2017 on dedicated Falcon 9.

Sun Synch Express now Q4 2017.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Dante80 on 08/09/2016 06:05 am
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/762793850255450112 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/762793850255450112)

Formosat 5/SHERPA in late October.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/09/2016 04:07 pm
Quote
EchoStar counting on 4 launches Oct-Dec: 2 on SpaceX (Echo 23 & Echo 105/SES-11), Echo 21 on ILS Proton & Echo 19/Jupiter 2 on ULA Atlas 5.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/763043101854367744 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/763043101854367744)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/09/2016 05:09 pm
Quote
Shotwell: we have a new agreement with Spaceflight for four add’l dedicated missions in next 4-5 years. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763058621353648128 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763058621353648128)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/09/2016 05:13 pm
Quote
Shotwell: we have a new agreement with Spaceflight for four add’l dedicated missions in next 4-5 years. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763058621353648128 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763058621353648128)

Should we assume the 2017 Sun Synch Express is one of those?  So three additional flights 2018-2021?  Or is it actually four more flights 2017-2021?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Shanuson on 08/09/2016 05:25 pm
Quote
David Hurst
‏@OrbitalDave

Shotwell: 1st Falcon Heavy mission expected Q3 of 17 #smallsat

https://twitter.com/OrbitalDave/status/763060858528215040
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/09/2016 05:33 pm
Quote
David Hurst
‏@OrbitalDave

Shotwell: 1st Falcon Heavy mission expected Q3 of 17 #smallsat

https://twitter.com/OrbitalDave/status/763060858528215040

The guy posting from the conference on Reddit said that's the STP-2 mission in Q3 2017, which would be the second or third FH flight.  Can't wait until they post a video of the talk so we don't have to rely on a bunch of possibly misleading tweets.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/09/2016 11:57 pm
There is not going to be any sudden rush to buy reused cores, especially before one has flown. I haven't seen anything to suggest both SES flights will be on used boosters. SES 10 has been shown as a 4th quarter launch on the SES site for quite awhile now, and I haven't seen anything to suggest it will fly sooner.  Let's give SpaceX a chance to actually qualify a booster for reflight and their customers a chance to get comfortable with the idea before we start assuming everything will suddenly start flying on reused cores.

A little update on reuse:

"Shotwell: “a lot of interest” from customers on flying on reused Falcon 9. May fly two of them this year.


SES-10 and SES-11? This would make sense.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/10/2016 01:07 pm
That really lines up:
SES-10 using S1-0023
SES-11 using S1-0027

Both have a "lightly used", LEO background so should be in far better shape than S1-0024 which has been refired at least three times at McGregor.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/10/2016 01:11 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/763307973045317632)
Quote
SES/Inmarsat/EchoStar/IRDM/Spaceflight & others' statements suggest SpaceX plans 10 launches Aug-Dec: 6 GTO&1 LEO frm CCAFS, 3 LEO frm VAFB.

Not sure if this is the actual plan, but if so it would be: JCSAT-16, AMOS-6, Iridium NEXT (Flight 1), SES-10, Echostar 23, Formosat-5 & Sherpa, SES-11/Echostar 105, CRS 10, Iridium NEXT (Flight 2), Inmarsat 5 F4.  I'd be really impressed if they actually managed 17 F9's this year, and I'm sure their customers would be happy.  Maybe they'll give a little schedule clarity next month at WSBW.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/10/2016 01:49 pm
That really lines up:
SES-10 using S1-0023
SES-11 using S1-0027

Both have a "lightly used", LEO background so should be in far better shape than S1-0024 which has been refired at least three times at McGregor.

24 isn't coming back per EM
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/10/2016 05:04 pm
That really lines up:
SES-10 using S1-0023
SES-11 using S1-0027

Both have a "lightly used", LEO background so should be in far better shape than S1-0024 which has been refired at least three times at McGregor.

24 isn't coming back per EM

Understood on 24, what I should have said is that 24 has been refired three times and 23/27 have clearly had less abuse, so they seem primed and ready to do exactly what you are thinking!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/11/2016 03:29 pm
ViaSat 3 launch should be in the 2020-2022 range now.  SpaceX may not launch the first one.  ViaSat has contracts with Arianespace and SpaceX to launch the first two, and a reservation (not yet a contract) with SpaceX for a later one.

SpaceNews: ViaSat urges commercial airlines to do the math on satellite connectivity (http://spacenews.com/viasat-urges-commercial-airlines-to-do-the-math-on-satellite-connectivity/)
Quote
ViaSat plans to launch the first ViaSat-3 in 2020 or 2021.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 08/14/2016 06:07 am
And now the manifest is out of date again, with successful launch of JCSAT-16 and first stage landing on OCISLY!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/14/2016 09:01 am
Cross posting due to list of further launches expected this year:

Peter B de Seldings write-up of the JCSAT-16 launch: http://spacenews.com/spacex-successfully-launches-jcsat-16-satellite-faces-crowded-end-year-manifest/ (http://spacenews.com/spacex-successfully-launches-jcsat-16-satellite-faces-crowded-end-year-manifest/)

It includes details of 9 further launches still expected this year! (Let's take discussion of that to SpaceX manifest thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0))

Edit: Here are the 9 announced launches

Cape Canaveral:
— Spacecom, Amos-6.
— EchoStar Corp., EchoStar-23.
— SES, SES-10.
— SES, SES-11/EchoStar-105.
— NASA, Dragon CRS-10
— KT Corp. of South Korea, Koreasat-5A.

Vandenberg:
— Iridium Communications, Iridium Next 1-10.
— National Space Program Office (NSPO) of Taiwan, Formosat-5; and Spaceflight Inc.’s Sherpa
— Iridium Communications, Iridium Next 11-20.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Norm38 on 08/14/2016 12:37 pm
A question on backlog.  They've made good progress since last year's stand down.  Does that list above reflect the order in which launches were booked?  Who's been waiting the longest for their ride, and what's the average delay now from booking to launch?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/14/2016 01:59 pm
A question on backlog.  They've made good progress since last year's stand down.  Does that list above reflect the order in which launches were booked?  Who's been waiting the longest for their ride, and what's the average delay now from booking to launch?

AMOS 6 has been waiting for quite a while.  Formosat/Sherpa was scheduled to fly late last year but not sure it was ever ready to fly then.  Nothing else has really been waiting yet (Iridium satellite production got delayed, they couldn't have launched before August anyway).  SpaceX has a very large manifest for the next 18 months so they need to pick up the pace now.  The launches can get booked at different intervals from when the satellites are expected to be ready, so it doesn't really launch just in the order contracts are signed.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 08/14/2016 05:44 pm
...  Does that list above reflect the order in which launches were booked?
...
In general - no.

...  Who's been waiting the longest for their ride, and what's the average delay now from booking to launch?

Here is a list of contract announcements I have, for all 2016 SpaceX launches.

First-line format:
Launch Date....Payload ....Manufacturer....Customer....Contract announced date

Jan 17, 2016....Jason-3....Thales Alenia....NASA/NOAA....Jul 16, 2012
http://www.spacex.com/news/2013/02/08/spacex-wins-first-science-mission-nasa-jason-3
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/jul/HQ_C12-029_RSLP-20_Launch_Services.html
renewable

Mar 04, 2016...SES-9...Boeing...SES (Europe)...Sep 12, 2012
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/ses-and-spacex-announce-contract-three-satellite-launches
http://www.satnews.com/cgi-bin/story.cgi?number=78555613
SES-9 + two options

May 06, 2016....JCSat-14....SS/L....SKY Perfect JSAT, Japan....Jan 10, 2014
http://www.spacex.com/press/2014/01/10/spacex-awarded-launch-contract-leading-asia-pacific-satellite-operator

May 27, 2016....Thaicom 8....Orbital....Thaicom (Thailand)....Apr 30, 2014
http://spacenews.com/40420orbital-to-build-spacex-to-launch-thaicom-8/
(could be an exercised option from the original Thaicom 6 contract)

Jun 15, 2016....Eutelsat 117W. B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A....Boeing....Asia Broadcast Sat./Satmex....Mar 13, 2012
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/spacex-signs-launch-agreements-asia-broadcast-satellite-and-satmex
Second launch of a two-launch contract

Aug 14, 2016....JCSat-16....SS/L....SKY Perfect JSAT, Japan....Sep 10, 2014
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/509640670852972544      

FUTURE flights:

Sep 04, 2016....AMOS-6....Israel Aerospace Industries (& MDA)....Spacecom (Israel)....Jan 28, 2013
http://www.spacex.com/press/2013/01/28/spacecom-and-spacex-announce-agreement-amos-6-satellite-launch

Sep 20, 2016....Iridium Next Flt.1....Thales Alenia....Iridium....Jun 16, 2010
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/iridium-and-spacex-sign-major-commercial-launch-contract
http://www.spacenews.com/contracts/061610spacex-iridium-ink-492-million-launch-services-deal.html
Multi-launch contract

Oct 2016....SES-10....Airbus Defence and Space ....SES....Feb 20, 2014
http://spacenews.com/39558updated-ses-books-falcon-9-for-2016-launch/
two-launch contract

Nov-Dec 2016....SES-11/Echostar 105....Airbus Defence and Space ....SES / Echostar....Feb 20, 2014
Second launch for the above contract

Oct 2016....Formosat-5 / Sherpa SSO....NSPO....NSPO (Taiwan)....Jun 14, 2010
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/spacex-and-national-space-organization-nspo-sign-contract-launch
Falcon-1 contract, originally scheduled for December 2013 from SpaceX's launch site on Omelek Island

Oct-Nov 2016....Echostar 23....SS/L....Echostar.... ? ?
Could not find any announcement for this launch contract
 
Nov 2016....KoreaSat 5A (Mugungwha 5A)....Thales Alenia Space ....Korea....Sep 10, 2014
https://twitter.com/yangsj11/status/509822768288772096
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 08/14/2016 07:27 pm
To follow-up on Smoliarm's post, the link's provided show the original launch dates for the upcoming launches were:
2015 for Amos-6
2016 for SES-10
2016 for Echostar 23 (http://sslmda.com/html/pressreleases/pr20140429.html)
Q4 2016 for SES-11/Echostar 105 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0)
Q4 2016 for KoreaSat 5A

So, after the Amos-6 launch, SpaceX should be more or less caught up on commercial satellite launches on Falcon 9.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/14/2016 09:32 pm
There was a tweet last night by Peter Selding that said SES was 'likely' riding first reused booster.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40769.msg1568948#msg1568948

Edit: Found tweet and corrected post accordingly
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Survtech on 08/15/2016 08:39 pm
So, after the Amos-6 launch, SpaceX should be more or less caught up on commercial satellite launches on Falcon 9.
Hmmm.  That statement doesn't jibe with the Launch Schedule at Spaceflight Now (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/ (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/).  According to them, Iridium Next 1-10 (Sept. 19/20) was delayed from July and Sept. 12; SES 10 (October) was delayed from Q3; Formosat 5 & Sherpa (Late Oct.) was delayed from May, June, July and September; EchoStar 23 (Q4) was delayed from Q3; SES 11/EchoStar 105 (Nov.) was delayed from October, etc., etc..

It doesn't appear SpaceX will actually catch up until well into 2017 and that's not counting the hugely delayed launches of Falcon Heavy.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: docmordrid on 08/15/2016 09:26 pm
To be fair, Iridium's recent delays have been on their end - faulty radios.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/11/10/radio-bug-to-keep-new-iridium-satellites-grounded-until-april/

The first 2 came off the line in June.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ragmar on 08/15/2016 09:31 pm
So after last week's exciting SmallSat Conference, it was fascinating to hear how SpaceX acknowledges the smallsat market, but plans on pursuing it through lots of rideshares (specifically SpaceFlight Induestries).  Gwynne said the following:

“We really love and appreciate working with aggregators of small satellite missions,” she said. “We’ve got a brand-new agreement with Spaceflight for four additional flights over the next four or five years.”  http://spacenews.com/spacex-offers-large-rockets-for-small-satellites/#sthash.Ogbnvq6o.dpuf

So, how many launches does Spaceflight Industries have with SpaceX?  Prior to the conference, we had 1) Sherpa (Fall 2016), and 2) SSO (with the Moon Express rover) in 2017.  Are there four more, making six launches total?  Or is it just two more (including the current launches).  Anyone have insight?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/15/2016 09:42 pm
I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/15/2016 09:59 pm
I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.
SI said that they have an agreement with SpaceX for a minimum of 1 SSO flight a year and up to one a quarter as needed initially. SSO is not a mandatory destination for SHERPA flights.
For reference from acquired SI documents:
Spaceflight's SHERPA system comes in multiple versions. Initial versions are: SHERPA aka SHERPA 0 (base version), SHERPA 400, SHERPA 1000, and SHERPA 2200. SHERPA operates in one of three modes:
1. as a non-propulsive free-flyer spacecraft, functioning independently of the launch vehicle and dispensing payloads a pre-determined time after launch vehicle separation (SHERPA 0 only)
2. as a propulsive free-flyer spacecraft, hosted payload platform, separating from the launch vehicle and operating as a spacecraft bus under its own power, propulsion and attitude control for several years (initial versions: SHERPA 400, SHERPA 1000, SHERPA 2200)
3. as a non-separating payload adapter dispensing payloads while connected to the launch vehicle (SHERPA 0 only)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ragmar on 08/15/2016 10:17 pm
I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.
SI said that they have an agreement with SpaceX for a minimum of 1 SSO flight a year and up to one a quarter as needed initially. SSO is not a mandatory destination for SHERPA flights.

Do you have the source for this?  This may answer it all.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/15/2016 10:22 pm
I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.
SI said that they have an agreement with SpaceX for a minimum of 1 SSO flight a year and up to one a quarter as needed initially. SSO is not a mandatory destination for SHERPA flights.

Do you have the source for this?  This may answer it all.
Emailing SI and documents from SI presentations.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/15/2016 11:16 pm
SI also has GTO flights listed in the future, but they don't mark on their manifest which are SpaceX flights. I'm guessing one of their 2018 flights is a dedicated F9.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 08/16/2016 03:49 am
So, after the Amos-6 launch, SpaceX should be more or less caught up on commercial satellite launches on Falcon 9.
Hmmm.  That statement doesn't jibe with the Launch Schedule at Spaceflight Now (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/ (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/).  According to them, Iridium Next 1-10 (Sept. 19/20) was delayed from July and Sept. 12; SES 10 (October) was delayed from Q3; Formosat 5 & Sherpa (Late Oct.) was delayed from May, June, July and September; EchoStar 23 (Q4) was delayed from Q3; SES 11/EchoStar 105 (Nov.) was delayed from October, etc., etc..

It doesn't appear SpaceX will actually catch up until well into 2017 and that's not counting the hugely delayed launches of Falcon Heavy.

As mentioned above, Iridium's delays have been payload related. The same goes for Formosat 5 and Sherpa.

When the initial press release says 2016, I would hardly consider delays from Q3 to Q4 to be behind schedule. Launch contracts are for a window larger than a month. If the SES and Echostar launch in the next several months than they will likely be considered on schedule.

My comment related to Falcon 9. FH delays are a different discussion entirely. 

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 08/16/2016 02:50 pm
Even though AMOS 6 will launch on either September 3 or September 4, I'm guessing the actual launch date will be the night of September 3 in the Eastern Daylight Time zone while it'll be September 4 in the Coordinated Universal Time zone.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cuddihy on 08/16/2016 09:08 pm
To be fair, Iridium's recent delays have been on their end - faulty radios.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/11/10/radio-bug-to-keep-new-iridium-satellites-grounded-until-april/

The first 2 came off the line in June.
No, that's not fair to Iridium.

Those delays are the usual kind you find only after LRIPs are off the production line. Iridium delayed their satellites by about 6-8 months when SpaceX delayed the rides, because you don't build hardware too early or you end up on a cul-de-sac. It's likely the same delay would have happened 6 or 8 months earlier if SpaceX hadn't fallen behind.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 08/16/2016 10:39 pm
The first two Iridium satellites were supposed to fly on Dnepr.  So I'm not entirely sure that rationale is correct.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/17/2016 12:15 pm
Quote
Spacecom: Our Amos-6 telecom sat, w/ HTS payload for Eutelsat/Facebook, scheduled for launch by SpaceX Falcon 9 at 03h ET (07h GMT) Sept 3.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/765882346100891648
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/19/2016 02:59 pm
Do we know if Dragon capsules are also reusable, or should be reusable in the future?  Are they designed to be?
Yes, and the answer is yes.
IIRC CRS-11 should see the first reuse of a pressure hull.

(Some other components are already reused.)

Is there interest in tracking Dragon reuse as well as S1?  I know it's not as spectacular . . . .
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/19/2016 03:19 pm
Silly question for this group...  ::)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 08/19/2016 04:36 pm
Silly question for this group...  ::)

Yep, we'll have a 6 dimensional tracking matrix up my happy hour this afternoon.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 08/20/2016 08:08 pm
I think we can effectively delay the tracking of individual D2's until DM1. I don't think any of the D1's will ever be reused. But the D2's are baselined for reuse and that will start happening soon after they start flying in 2017/2018 and landing on land. A year to figure out the best way to track D2s reuse's.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/20/2016 08:36 pm
I think we can effectively delay the tracking of individual D2's until DM1. I don't think any of the D1's will ever be reused. But the D2's are baselined for reuse and that will start happening soon after they start flying in 2017/2018 and landing on land. A year to figure out the best way to track D2s reuse's.

Dragon 1s are soon to be reflown (starting with CRS-11).  Since it is a rebuild of the pressure hull from CRS-6 IIRC, would be interesting to track number of reuses.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: docmordrid on 08/20/2016 08:36 pm
@b0yle (Alan Boyle)
@SpaceX's Koenigmann: Looking at CRS-11 or -12 for reuse of #Dragon capsules. "Not too far from now."
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/22/2016 01:50 am
Looks like Iridium gets NEXT booster '0030'
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/22/2016 02:56 pm
I think we can effectively delay the tracking of individual D2's until DM1. I don't think any of the D1's will ever be reused. But the D2's are baselined for reuse and that will start happening soon after they start flying in 2017/2018 and landing on land. A year to figure out the best way to track D2s reuse's.

Dragon 1s are soon to be reflown (starting with CRS-11).  Since it is a rebuild of the pressure hull from CRS-6 IIRC, would be interesting to track number of reuses.

So, CRS-6 was one hull and none since have been reused.  Do we know if the Dragon Capsules used for CRS-7, -8, -9, and -10 are "in rotation" or already retired because the next-gen vehicle is already in the pipeline?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/22/2016 03:00 pm
I think we can effectively delay the tracking of individual D2's until DM1. I don't think any of the D1's will ever be reused. But the D2's are baselined for reuse and that will start happening soon after they start flying in 2017/2018 and landing on land. A year to figure out the best way to track D2s reuse's.

Dragon 1s are soon to be reflown (starting with CRS-11).  Since it is a rebuild of the pressure hull from CRS-6 IIRC, would be interesting to track number of reuses.

So, CRS-6 was one hull and none since have been reused.  Do we know if the Dragon Capsules used for CRS-7, -8, -9, and -10 are "in rotation" or already retired because the next-gen vehicle is already in the pipeline?

Dragon reuse discussions should probably be conducted in a different thread.

If Dragon v2 ships are used for cargo under the CRS 2 contract that wouldn't start until (at least) 2019, so expect the next 10+ CRS flights to use the original cargo Dragon design.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 08/22/2016 03:26 pm
Do we know if the Dragon Capsules used for CRS-7, -8, -9, and -10 are "in rotation" or already retired because the next-gen vehicle is already in the pipeline?
Er...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jarnis on 08/22/2016 03:53 pm
Do we know if the Dragon Capsules used for CRS-7, -8, -9, and -10 are "in rotation" or already retired because the next-gen vehicle is already in the pipeline?
Er...

That one is definitely retired. In the Atlantic.  :'(
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/23/2016 02:14 pm
Do we know if the Dragon Capsules used for CRS-7, -8, -9, and -10 are "in rotation" or already retired because the next-gen vehicle is already in the pipeline?
Er...

That one is definitely retired. In the Atlantic.  :'(

Sorry, I was asking about the entire set of Dragon v1, not just one.  My apologies for the confusion.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/24/2016 12:47 am
August 5 - Two GRACE-FO - Dnepr - Dombarovskiy, 370/13

Got info from GFZ, that Dnepr is no longer available as launch vehicle for GRACE-FO. They are currently in negotiations with SpaceX for a Falcon-9 launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 08/24/2016 01:15 am
August 5 - Two GRACE-FO - Dnepr - Dombarovskiy, 370/13

Got info from GFZ, that Dnepr is no longer available as launch vehicle for GRACE-FO. They are currently in negotiations with SpaceX for a Falcon-9 launch.

I wonder if GRACE-FO (http://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/) is trying to hold the 2017 launch and break into SpaceX's crowded 2017 manifest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569).
Negotiation to launch in <18 months?
Now that would be "responsive space".
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Zed_Noir on 08/24/2016 08:11 am
August 5 - Two GRACE-FO - Dnepr - Dombarovskiy, 370/13

Got info from GFZ, that Dnepr is no longer available as launch vehicle for GRACE-FO. They are currently in negotiations with SpaceX for a Falcon-9 launch.

I wonder if GRACE-FO (http://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/) is trying to hold the 2017 launch and break into SpaceX's crowded 2017 manifest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569).
Negotiation to launch in <18 months?
Now that would be "responsive space".
Used Falcon 9 from VAFB?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/24/2016 07:12 pm
August 5 - Two GRACE-FO - Dnepr - Dombarovskiy, 370/13

Got info from GFZ, that Dnepr is no longer available as launch vehicle for GRACE-FO. They are currently in negotiations with SpaceX for a Falcon-9 launch.

I wonder if GRACE-FO (http://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/) is trying to hold the 2017 launch and break into SpaceX's crowded 2017 manifest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569).
Negotiation to launch in <18 months?
Now that would be "responsive space".
Used Falcon 9 from VAFB?
USAF and NASA have yet to issue approval to allow for government payloads to fly on already flown cores. I'd expect these approvals in the 2018/2019 time frame after completion of several commercial flights on flown cores.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/24/2016 07:21 pm
August 5 - Two GRACE-FO - Dnepr - Dombarovskiy, 370/13

Got info from GFZ, that Dnepr is no longer available as launch vehicle for GRACE-FO. They are currently in negotiations with SpaceX for a Falcon-9 launch.

I wonder if GRACE-FO (http://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/) is trying to hold the 2017 launch and break into SpaceX's crowded 2017 manifest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569).
Negotiation to launch in <18 months?
Now that would be "responsive space".
Used Falcon 9 from VAFB?
USAF and NASA have yet to issue approval to allow for government payloads to fly on already flown cores. I'd expect these approvals in the 2018/2019 time frame after completion of several commercial flights on flown cores.
Would NASA rules apply in this case if GFZ is buying the launch?  (Do we already have a GRACE-FO thread anywhere?)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/24/2016 07:47 pm
August 5 - Two GRACE-FO - Dnepr - Dombarovskiy, 370/13

Got info from GFZ, that Dnepr is no longer available as launch vehicle for GRACE-FO. They are currently in negotiations with SpaceX for a Falcon-9 launch.

I wonder if GRACE-FO (http://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/) is trying to hold the 2017 launch and break into SpaceX's crowded 2017 manifest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569).
Negotiation to launch in <18 months?
Now that would be "responsive space".
Used Falcon 9 from VAFB?
USAF and NASA have yet to issue approval to allow for government payloads to fly on already flown cores. I'd expect these approvals in the 2018/2019 time frame after completion of several commercial flights on flown cores.
Would NASA rules apply in this case if GFZ is buying the launch?  (Do we already have a GRACE-FO thread anywhere?)
Would NASA rules apply in this case if GFZ is buying the launch?
That would be a Jim and Ed Kyle question. GFZ is a division of DLR and the launch is being acquired by NASA.
Do we already have a GRACE-FO thread anywhere?
Yes. Mission thread (there are probably a few others, but they are probably in the archives since GRACE-FO was originally planned to fly like its predecessors of Rockot): http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/27/2016 02:01 pm
Isn't there an IMARSAT launch (fourth I-5 platform) on an FH or F9 expendible in 2017?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/27/2016 02:31 pm
Isn't there an IMARSAT launch (fourth I-5 platform) on an FH or F9 expendible in 2017?

I-5 F4.  It's been mentioned as around the end of 2016, and it's either on F9 (since FH isn't flying yet) or on Proton.  Most people seem to be assuming Proton, but we really don't know.  It could end up being a SpaceX launch.  The SpaceX launch schedule in the November-January timeframe is still a bit of a mystery.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 08/27/2016 09:09 pm
Isn't there an IMARSAT launch (fourth I-5 platform) on an FH or F9 expendible in 2017?

I-5 F4.  It's been mentioned as around the end of 2016, and it's either on F9 (since FH isn't flying yet) or on Proton.  Most people seem to be assuming Proton, but we really don't know.  It could end up being a SpaceX launch.  The SpaceX launch schedule in the November-January timeframe is still a bit of a mystery.

AFAIU, the contract was for ONE launch PLUS two OPTIONS:
http://www.inmarsat.com/press-release/inmarsat-appoints-spacex-future-satellite-launches/
also this article adds some details:
http://spacenews.com/41121inmarsat-books-falcon-heavy-for-up-to-three-launches/

The firm part of the contract is EuropaSat/Hellas-Sat 3, which is listed here in the top post. The other two sats - Inmarsat 5 F4 and Inmarsat 6 - their launches (with Falcon) may be contingent on the result of the first launch, we don't know.

Here we also know that Inmarsat bought an option from ILS for one launch, which is [presumably] for one of these 3 satellites.
Other than that - I could not find any info.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/28/2016 02:45 pm
Madison.com: This Space Start-Up [Vector Space] Just Landed Its First Big Customer (http://host.madison.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/this-space-start-up-just-landed-its-first-big-customer/article_9befcf9f-5cfc-550f-bb86-bfbe4d9cd8ed.html)
Quote
For example, Iceye will actually send up its prototype satellite in 2017, hitching a ride aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying larger cargo. But to fit itself aboard the rocket, Iceye had to change the satellite's "configuration." In contrast, Vector is working with Iceye to enable the configuration it really wants. That flexibility helped to convince Iceye to give Vector the bulk of its business.

No idea what flight this secondary payload would be on, maybe Sun Synch Express?  Supposed to be sometime 2nd half 2017.

(2 weeks to WSBW in Paris, hopefully we'll get some more SpaceX manifest information then.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/28/2016 05:17 pm
Madison.com: This Space Start-Up [Vector Space] Just Landed Its First Big Customer (http://host.madison.com/business/investment/markets-and-stocks/this-space-start-up-just-landed-its-first-big-customer/article_9befcf9f-5cfc-550f-bb86-bfbe4d9cd8ed.html)
Quote
For example, Iceye will actually send up its prototype satellite in 2017, hitching a ride aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying larger cargo. But to fit itself aboard the rocket, Iceye had to change the satellite's "configuration." In contrast, Vector is working with Iceye to enable the configuration it really wants. That flexibility helped to convince Iceye to give Vector the bulk of its business.

No idea what flight this secondary payload would be on, maybe Sun Synch Express?  Supposed to be sometime 2nd half 2017.

(2 weeks to WSBW in Paris, hopefully we'll get some more SpaceX manifest information then.)

ICEYE First Generation is a custom microsat. York Space Systems has an initial contract with ICEYE to provide 10 of their S-Class platforms, which have a mass of 65 kg and can support 85 kg payload. It is going to be interesting, how they will launch this on Vector launch vehicles. There are still unannounced payloads on the Sun Sync Express flight at this time.
http://iceye.fi/
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/iceye.htm
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: the_other_Doug on 08/28/2016 06:16 pm
Let me get this straight -- Iceye wants to fly cubesats, but they don't want to fly them in a relatively standard cubesat launch configuration?

If that's the case, then yeah, I guess they need to find an ultra-cheap dedicated smallsat launcher like Vector's, because I bet none of the current launch service providers will fly cubesats in anything much different than what fits in their standard cubesat deployment systems.  Unless the customer wants to pay for the development and construction of a custom launch-and-deployment cradle...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/28/2016 06:29 pm
Let me get this straight -- Iceye wants to fly cubesats, but they don't want to fly them in a relatively standard cubesat launch configuration?

If that's the case, then yeah, I guess they need to find an ultra-cheap dedicated smallsat launcher like Vector's, because I bet none of the current launch service providers will fly cubesats in anything much different than what fits in their standard cubesat deployment systems.  Unless the customer wants to pay for the development and construction of a custom launch-and-deployment cradle...
see my edited post above.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 08/30/2016 07:55 am
According to
Quote from: Los Angeles Times

SES’ satellite will launch on a first-stage booster that landed in April after delivering supplies to the International Space Station.
 (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spacex-rocket-20160829-snap-story.html)

this

2016-10     F9           OCISLY      SES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0) [12]                   GTO  5300    LC40

schould be changed to


2016-10     F9(23)       OCISLY      SES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0) [12]                   GTO  5300    LC40

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: eriblo on 08/30/2016 10:18 am
We'll likely have to revise this "BOOST(Core)" numbering or things will be confusing. According to the latest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40044.msg1572912#msg1572912) discussion on stage numbering this will be flight F9-003X, core B1021 (with X=2 if it follows the current manifest)...


Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/30/2016 02:16 pm
SES-10 reflight noted!!

The notation, discussed at great length in the prior thread, will be (23-1), for "Core 23 First Reflight".  Not very negotiable.

We will be revisiting core notation when Falcon Heavy arrives -- we can reconsider at that point.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 08/30/2016 05:53 pm
SES-10 reflight noted!!

The notation, discussed at great length in the prior thread, will be (23-1), for "Core 23 First Reflight".  Not very negotiable.

We will be revisiting core notation when Falcon Heavy arrives -- we can reconsider at that point.

Well the first landed cores are only going to be used for testing at this point to gain confidence in reflight before allowing a paying customer fly on one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/30/2016 06:30 pm
Spaceflight Now: SES agrees to launch satellite on ‘flight-proven’ Falcon 9 rocket  (http://spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/30/ses-agrees-to-launch-satellite-on-flight-proven-falcon-9-rocket/)
Quote
Intelsat, one of the world’s largest geostationary satellite operators alongside SES, has one launch reserved on a newly-built Falcon 9 rocket in the first quarter of 2017, when the Intelsat 35e satellite will launch from Cape Canaveral.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 08/31/2016 04:53 pm
FH inaugural flight back on for Q4...
Quote
SpaceX spokesperson John Taylor who informed us that the Falcon Heavy is currently slated to take to the skies later this fall.
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/space-exploration-technologies/spacex-still-eyeing-fall-launch-maiden-flight-falcon-heavy/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Olaf on 08/31/2016 05:21 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/509we2/spacex_signs_first_customer_for_launch_of_a/d72xtx7
Quote
CRS-10 is launching in 2017 now.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 08/31/2016 05:31 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/509we2/spacex_signs_first_customer_for_launch_of_a/d72xtx7
Quote
CRS-10 is launching in 2017 now.

Comment is a good start, but we will wait for a stronger confirmation before changing the manifest.  Thanks for the link!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 08/31/2016 07:40 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/509we2/spacex_signs_first_customer_for_launch_of_a/d72xtx7
Quote
CRS-10 is launching in 2017 now.

Several managers on the team for one major SpX-10 payload said just yesterday that the SpX-10 launch was still scheduled for November 11th with the potential to move forward or back by "around a week or so".

The delay to 2017 is either untrue or really breaking news not yet disseminated within NASA.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jakusb on 08/31/2016 07:59 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/509we2/spacex_signs_first_customer_for_launch_of_a/d72xtx7
Quote
CRS-10 is launching in 2017 now.

Several managers on the team for one major SpX-10 payload said just yesterday that the SpX-10 launch was still scheduled for November 11th with the potential to move forward or back by "around a week or so".

The delay to 2017 is either untrue or really breaking news not yet disseminated within NASA.
Seems like a good test of the credibility of Echologic... ;)
He/she does seem to appear well informed, or at least acting like it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Robotbeat on 08/31/2016 08:08 pm
FH inaugural flight back on for Q4...
Quote
SpaceX spokesperson John Taylor who informed us that the Falcon Heavy is currently slated to take to the skies later this fall.
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/space-exploration-technologies/spacex-still-eyeing-fall-launch-maiden-flight-falcon-heavy/
It was never off. (For the record.)

...still, the smart money is on a 2017 launch. But 2016 is not and has not been ruled out.

It's funny/annoying how rumor/speculation become established "fact" only to be later disproved. (EDIT: That came off snarkier than I intended.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 08/31/2016 08:25 pm
... and that's plenty of discussion on FH launch date for now (at least in this thread, feel free to continue in the FH thread, or start a poll or something).  Right now we really don't know when it will launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 09/01/2016 02:01 pm
FH inaugural flight back on for Q4...
Quote
SpaceX spokesperson John Taylor who informed us that the Falcon Heavy is currently slated to take to the skies later this fall.
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/space-exploration-technologies/spacex-still-eyeing-fall-launch-maiden-flight-falcon-heavy/
It was never off. (For the record.)

...still, the smart money is on a 2017 launch. But 2016 is not and has not been ruled out.

It's funny/annoying how rumor/speculation become established "fact" only to be later disproved. (EDIT: That came off snarkier than I intended.)

For the record, the manifest has not budged on FH dates -- the quorum here still sees past the fog!

Thanks, all!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 09/01/2016 04:42 pm
FH inaugural flight back on for Q4...
Quote
SpaceX spokesperson John Taylor who informed us that the Falcon Heavy is currently slated to take to the skies later this fall.
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/space-exploration-technologies/spacex-still-eyeing-fall-launch-maiden-flight-falcon-heavy/
It was never off. (For the record.)

...still, the smart money is on a 2017 launch. But 2016 is not and has not been ruled out.

It's funny/annoying how rumor/speculation become established "fact" only to be later disproved. (EDIT: That came off snarkier than I intended.)

For the record, the manifest has not budged on FH dates -- the quorum here still sees past the fog!

Thanks, all!

Today's LOV will bump everything to the right at least a few months, including Heavy.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: the_other_Doug on 09/01/2016 05:53 pm
This will also possibly force SpaceX to move all F9 launch ops to 39A for the time being, if they want to keep things rolling.  If it was a GSE problem at the launch pad, once analysis is complete fixes can be made to Vandenberg and 39A before they can rebuild the damaged pad.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 09/01/2016 05:56 pm
For now, marked everything from LC40 to TBD since there clearly was damage.  No other changes forthcoming without the usual official and solid linked information.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: catdlr on 09/03/2016 05:26 am
SpaceX to shift Florida launches to new pad after explosion

https://www.yahoo.com/news/spacex-shift-florida-launches-pad-explosion-003208139--finance.html?ref=gs

Quote
With its launch pad likely facing major repairs, SpaceX said it would use a second Florida site, called 39A, which is located a few miles north at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and was used for space shuttle missions.

The pad is on schedule to be operational in November, SpaceX said. The company had planned to use the pad for the first time later this year for a test flight of its new Falcon Heavy rocket.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ilikeboosterrockets on 09/05/2016 04:19 pm
Spaceflightnow has the Iridium NEXT launch from Vandenberg scheduled for September 20?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 09/05/2016 04:41 pm
Spaceflightnow has the Iridium NEXT launch from Vandenberg scheduled for September 20?

He just hasn't bothered changing his dates yet (no one knows when they will start flying again).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 09/06/2016 03:30 pm
Spaceflightnow has the Iridium NEXT launch from Vandenberg scheduled for September 20?

As do we here, but the entire manifest should be considered volatile until we get concrete info from SpaceX.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 09/06/2016 04:20 pm
Spaceflightnow has the Iridium NEXT launch from Vandenberg scheduled for September 20?

As do we here, but the entire manifest should be considered volatile until we get concrete info from SpaceX.

"volatile" is an understatement.
The on-pad loss of AMOS-6 and the damaging of LC-40 are of such magnitude that everything on the manifest is of much greater uncertainty than before.  Even Red Dragon 2018, constrained to the Mars launch windows, it a much longer shot.
It hardly pays to mark a few things "TBD" when that is generally true.  It even implies that that things not marked TBD are more certain than they are, as in ilikeboosterrockets' post.
And we won't know anything about the schedule until SpaceX issues some definitive statements.
But everyone following this thread knows that.  No one is buying airplane tickets based on this manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 09/15/2016 02:25 pm
Made a couple of changes based on recent comments by Shotwell.

The emphasis on November is interesting.  The fact she made her comments after the ULA chief started talking about a year until they might fly again seems like good PR.  However, November -- is the thought to keep the CRS schedule moving as it is a NASA contract with ISS implications?  Just thinking out loud.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 09/15/2016 02:50 pm
It doesn't seem to make sense to muck with the manifest in advance of real news from SpaceX, a customer, or the range.  We all know that the dates and launch order currently shown cannot be relied on. 
I would guess that the CRS schedule would just slip one mission, with CRS-10 going when CRS-11 was scheduled in February of 2017, and so on, but that's just a guess, and we have higher thresholds for compiling this manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: launchwatcher on 09/15/2016 07:26 pm
Made a couple of changes based on recent comments by Shotwell.

The emphasis on November is interesting.  The fact she made her comments after the ULA chief started talking about a year until they might fly again seems like good PR.  However, November -- is the thought to keep the CRS schedule moving as it is a NASA contract with ISS implications?  Just thinking out loud.

On Reddit, Tory said he was misquoted/misunderstood: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/51tkae/spacex_could_be_grounded_for_912_months_ula_chief/d7fn0x7
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: catdlr on 09/16/2016 10:09 pm
SpaceX faces a more crowded rocket launch market, even when it returns to flight

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spacex-competitors-20160914-snap-story.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 09/19/2016 01:51 am
We can safely say Iridium Flight 2 will be NET February due to the insurance mandated delay unless I missed something and the 2 satellites planned for Russian launch will be ready next month.

I agree with others that there is no need to do too much to the schedule (possibly including what I just mentioned) until return to flight is solidified.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 09/21/2016 01:42 pm
Wildfire near Vandenberg has already affected ULA.  Noted here since pad and payload operations for SpaceX are called out for risk.

Wildfire near Vandenberg AFB (http://"http://www.socaltech.com/wildfire_at_vandenberg_air_force_base_might_affect_spacex_payload_launchpad/s-0067230.html")
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: edkyle99 on 09/21/2016 02:39 pm
Wildfire near Vandenberg has already affected ULA.  Noted here since pad and payload operations for SpaceX are called out for risk.

Wildfire near Vandenberg AFB (http://"http://www.socaltech.com/wildfire_at_vandenberg_air_force_base_might_affect_spacex_payload_launchpad/s-0067230.html")
Yes.  The fire appears to have gotten closer to SLC 4 than it did SLC 3, so far.

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/03/2016 04:06 pm
Tweet from Marcia Smith @SpcPlcyOnline (https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/782973789810286592)
Quote
Hertz: SpaceX has told NASA that CRS-10 will be in Jan (was Nov), CRS-11, w/NICER, is Mar (was Feb). But depends on when they fix F9 prob,
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: DOCinCT on 10/03/2016 09:14 pm
Tweet from Marcia Smith @SpcPlcyOnline (https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/782973789810286592)
Quote
Hertz: SpaceX has told NASA that CRS-10 will be in Jan (was Nov), CRS-11, w/NICER, is Mar (was Feb). But depends on when they fix F9 prob,
Are either of these people credible?  Is there an official SpaceX announcement or statement?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/03/2016 09:29 pm
Tweet from Marcia Smith @SpcPlcyOnline (https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/782973789810286592)
Quote
Hertz: SpaceX has told NASA that CRS-10 will be in Jan (was Nov), CRS-11, w/NICER, is Mar (was Feb). But depends on when they fix F9 prob,
Are either of these people credible?  Is there an official SpaceX announcement or statement?

1. Yes (Paul Hertz is with NASA) 2. No
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/05/2016 02:08 am
Tweets from Peter B. de Selding:

Quote
SpaceX President Shotwell(1) (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/783485142782267392): 'We do anticipate being back in flight this yr w/ a couple of flights.'
SpaceX's Shotwell(2) (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/783485858821341184): None of our failures were related to changes to rocket. It's OK to fail in demos, not OK to fail on customer missions.
Shotwell(3) (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/783486592958595072): Goal is still to fly 1st Commercial Crew Dragon next year.
Shotwell(4) (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/783486865525444608): First Falcon Heavy should fly by mid- next year. We'll need at least one more landing pad
Shotwell(5) (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/783487638531477504): Are we 100% sure June 2015 failure was due to strut? No. Are we 99.9% sure? Yes. You look at preponderance of evidence.
Shotwell(6) (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/783488194964631552): Our satellite Internet constellation 'is still pretty TBD.' Ground terminal cost remains challenge as it has been for others.

So if they actually launched two flights this year, they'd start 2017 about 5 payloads behind, and would need to be launching twice a month just to stay that far behind, or more than twice a month to start catching up.  Sounds like a significant slip for Crew Dragon is coming.

Edit: This would have been from Gwynne's speech at APSCC 2016 in Malaysia.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/10/2016 09:19 pm
 Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://mobile.twitter.com/pbdes/status/785548529276166145)
Quote
SpaceX manifest: Round & round it goes, where it stops... EchoStar-23 is latest customer said to be maneuvering for F9 return-to-flight slot
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 10/10/2016 11:29 pm
Will Core #23 still be used for SES-10, or will it be switched to EchoStar 23 just because SpaceX wants to start reusage?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/11/2016 12:15 am
Will Core #23 still be used for SES-10, or will it be switched to EchoStar 23 just because SpaceX wants to start reusage?

SpaceX can't just switch a used core to a random customer. They should have plenty of new cores being constructed.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mn on 10/11/2016 03:03 am

SpaceX can't just switch a used core to a random customer. They should have plenty of new cores being constructed.

Why not? The cores are identical, not custom made to a particular mission.

(obviously you have to deal with satisfying two customers who both want to fly first, but that is a business issue, nothing to do with the core)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/11/2016 03:09 am

SpaceX can't just switch a used core to a random customer. They should have plenty of new cores being constructed.

Why not? The cores are identical, not custom made to a particular mission.

(obviously you have to deal with satisfying two customers who both want to fly first, but that is a business issue, nothing to do with the core)

Most of the customers have contracts to fly on a new rocket.  You can't switch in a used rocket without modifying the contract.  They also already have a customer for the first reused core.  They would have to get another used core ready for launch.  And they should have several new cores ready by the time they RTF.  It would make absolutely no sense to launch the RTF on a used core unless it was SES-10 as the payload.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 10/11/2016 03:33 am
Will Core #23 still be used for SES-10, or will it be switched to EchoStar 23 just because SpaceX wants to start reusage?

This post and all of the responses depart from the intent of this thread.  (You can ask starhawk92.) The specific core, and which ones will be reflown, are ancillary information on the manifest.  Moreover, we are posting what has been ANNOUNCED, not what could be.  There are a plethora of threads in which to discuss the potential for reuse, the nature of launch contracts, and which flight might do whatever. 

Right now this thread is in disarray, reflecting the indefiniteness of the Falcon program pending announcements of Return to Flight and the pace immediately afterwards.  Only the Mars launch windows have fixed dates.

At this time there are ~36 missions before Red Dragon 1 and ~19 months with one functional launch pad.  Something has to give, and we will be ready to post whatever SpaceX announces it will be.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/13/2016 07:38 pm
(Cross-posted with the discussion thread.)

Quoted from  https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57balr/details_from_elons_speech_at_the_nro/

Quote
Details from Elon's speech at the NRO (self.spacex)
submitted 23 minutes ago * by Ravenous117
...

Addressing return to flight:

“The plan is to get back to launch in early December and that will be from pad 39A at the Cape and we will be launching around the same time from Vandenberg as well. Pad 40 will probably be back in action around March or April next year. Probably around May or so is when we will launch Falcon Heavy. We are going to re-fly the first returned core December or January.  We have test fired one of the returned cores 8 times and it looks good.  That is promising for testing re-flight.”


...

These are my personal accounts of what I heard from Elon live and the rough transcript is from a recording of the event. I do not know much other than what I heard but I wanted to share with you guys. Enjoy.

Still a bit early to rework the manifest until they actually announce RTF, but if this is legit then the RTF order could be something like:
1. one of the commsats, they could have several to choose from (EchoStar 23, SES-11/EchoStar 105, Koreasat, Inmarsat, ...)
2. Iridium flight 1
3. SES-10
4. CRS-10
and after they get through those they should have around a half dozen payloads waiting for launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Navier–Stokes on 10/14/2016 12:37 am
Looks like the RTF core may be on its way to McGregor shortly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LDicQjlZ2s

Credit to: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57denh/spotted_in_hawthorne_falcon_loaded_on_truck_with/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57denh/spotted_in_hawthorne_falcon_loaded_on_truck_with/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 10/14/2016 04:46 pm
Just to keep it clean, updates on hardware and processing have other threads.  Only posts with manifest impacts here, please.  And thank you!

Can't quite smell RTF yet, but the light seems to be in the tunnel!

Thanks for everyone's contributions!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 10/15/2016 05:56 pm
quoted from  https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57balr/details_from_elons_speech_at_the_nro/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/57balr/details_from_elons_speech_at_the_nro/)

Quote
Details from Elon's speech at the NRO (self.spacex)
submitted 23 minutes ago * by Ravenous117

Addressing return to flight:

“The plan is to get back to launch in early December and that will be from pad 39A at the Cape and we will be launching around the same time from Vandenberg as well. Pad 40 will probably be back in action around March or April next year. Probably around May or so is when we will launch Falcon Heavy. We are going to re-fly the first returned core December or January.  We have test fired one of the returned cores 8 times and it looks good.  That is promising for testing re-flight.”

These are my personal accounts of what I heard from Elon live and the rough transcript is from a recording of the event. I do not know much other than what I heard but I wanted to share with you guys. Enjoy.


Three data points for the manifest, with my emphasis, albeit without mentioning specific RTF missions.
edit: Original reddit post at link above has been removed.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 10/21/2016 02:27 pm
Is this a new payload?

Quote
Bangabandhu Satellite
Quote

    Home
    Science & Tech

50pc work of Bangabandhu Satellite completed: Tarana
BSS . Dhaka | Update: 19:21, Oct 21, 2016
0 Like
 
 
 
 
 
 

BangabandhuState minister for post and telecommunications Tarana Halim on Friday revealed that 50 per cent works of Bangladesh’s first satellite ‘Bangabandhu-I’ has been completed. 

“So far 83 per cent engineering works of the Bangabandhu-I has been done while progress of antenna manufacture is 56 per cent and works of communication and service modules reported 65 per cent development,” said the minister. 

Tarana Halim said this while briefing newsmen about the satellite and optical fiber network of BTCL at BTCL Gulshan-1 Exchange Office in the morning. 

Referring to the completion of satellite system requirement review (SRR) preliminary design review (PDR), she said, “We would start the commercial operation of the satellite in March 2018 after launching it to the space on 16 December next year.”

If the current pace of work is continued, manufacture of the satellite would be completed in November 2017, said the state minister, adding, “The satellite would be launched using vehicle -SpaceX and Falcon 9 -of United States from the Cape Carnival Launch Pad.”

http://en.prothom-alo.com/science-technology/news/125991/50pc-work-of-Bangabandhu-Satellite-completed
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 10/21/2016 02:31 pm
Is this a new payload?

Quote
Bangabandhu Satellite
Quote

    Home
    Science & Tech

50pc work of Bangabandhu Satellite completed: Tarana
BSS . Dhaka | Update: 19:21, Oct 21, 2016
0 Like
 
 
 
 
 
 

BangabandhuState minister for post and telecommunications Tarana Halim on Friday revealed that 50 per cent works of Bangladesh’s first satellite ‘Bangabandhu-I’ has been completed. 

“So far 83 per cent engineering works of the Bangabandhu-I has been done while progress of antenna manufacture is 56 per cent and works of communication and service modules reported 65 per cent development,” said the minister. 

Tarana Halim said this while briefing newsmen about the satellite and optical fiber network of BTCL at BTCL Gulshan-1 Exchange Office in the morning. 

Referring to the completion of satellite system requirement review (SRR) preliminary design review (PDR), she said, “We would start the commercial operation of the satellite in March 2018 after launching it to the space on 16 December next year.”

If the current pace of work is continued, manufacture of the satellite would be completed in November 2017, said the state minister, adding, “The satellite would be launched using vehicle -SpaceX and Falcon 9 -of United States from the Cape Carnival Launch Pad.”

http://en.prothom-alo.com/science-technology/news/125991/50pc-work-of-Bangabandhu-Satellite-completed

This comsat was ordered in November last year and is being built by Thales Alenia Space, but no LSP has been mentioned till now: https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite (https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/21/2016 02:54 pm
Is this a new payload? [Bangabandhu Satellite]

That certainly is a new addition to the manifest. 

This comsat was ordered in November last year and is being built by Thales Alenia Space, but no LSP has been mentioned till now: https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite (https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-build-bangabandhu-telecommunication-satellite)

They want to launch on a rather specific day: ""We hope to carry out the launch on the 46th anniversary of our country's Victory Day, which will be on December 16th , 2017 ”.

According to the info on Gunter's page the estimated mass will be around 3500kg (somewhere in the 3000-4100kg range for that satellite bus)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/24/2016 03:55 pm
New FCC applications from SpaceX:

Quote
This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for F9-31, a commercial GTO launch from Complex 39a, Kennedy Space Center
...
Operation Start Date:    12/01/2016

Seems to publicly confirm December RTF from the Cape is a GTO commsat (which we pretty much already knew, but nice to have confirmation).  December 1 should not be the actual launch date, the dates on the paperwork are always earlier than the launch.  They had already filed paperwork for the Iridium launch from Vandenberg as F9-30.  The mission numbers on the paperwork shouldn't have any bearing on which actually launches first.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rocx on 10/25/2016 07:57 am
I read that as 12th of January for a long time before reading your comment. Really wish US government entities would switch to yyyy-mm-dd or at least dd-mm-yyyy.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jacqmans on 10/26/2016 12:30 pm
http://www.ses.com/20641374/ses-14?platform=hootsuite
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 10/26/2016 03:25 pm
http://www.ses.com/20641374/ses-14?platform=hootsuite

That's odd.
The link shows this, with "Launch date H2-2017":
It is not clear which is the current information.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/26/2016 03:50 pm
http://www.ses.com/20641374/ses-14?platform=hootsuite

That's odd.
The link shows this, with "Launch date H2-2017":
It is not clear which is the current information.

We've already had it as 4Q-2017 on the manifest.  I doubt anything will be moving to the left next year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 10/27/2016 09:37 pm
Intelsat Announces Third Quarter 2016 Results (http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161027005325/en/Intelsat-Announces-Quarter-2016-Results)
Quote
The company has three satellite launches scheduled for 2017: Intelsat 32e, an Intelsat EpicNG Ku-band payload in the first quarter of 2017; Intelsat 35e in the second quarter of 2017, providing that there are no changes to SpaceX’s launch manifest as a result of its recent anomaly; and Intelsat 37e in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/28/2016 09:34 am
Quote
With SpaceX launch delays, SES now has six satellites to launch in 2017, beginning with SES-10 aboard reused Falcon 9 booster in Q1.

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791908112240300032 (https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791908112240300032)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 10/31/2016 06:57 pm
This is what we think is the current plan (but subject to change). Will set up relevant update threads, etc...when confirmed.

By Chris Gebhardt:

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/10/spacex-prepares-upcoming-falcon-9-amos-6/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 11/01/2016 06:13 pm
Put Iridium and Echostar on top of the heap with CRS-10 on deck.  I think that is as aggressive as we can be, yet conservative enough to satisfy our more cautious brethren.

Go SpaceX!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 11/03/2016 01:09 pm
So Inmarsat 5 F4 really is launching on Falcon, and EuropaSat/HellasSat 3 may move to a different launch vehicle but final decision not made yet.

SpaceNews: Inmarsat, juggling two launches, says SpaceX to return to flight in December (http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-juggling-two-launches-says-spacex-to-return-to-flight-in-december/)
Quote
Inmarsat has three launch contracts with SpaceX. Up to now, it had planned to launch its Inmarsat 5-F4 Ka-band broadband mobile communications satellite on a Falcon 9 in late 2016; an S-band aeronautical-connectivity satellite on a new Falcon Heavy rocket in early 2017; and the first of the Inmarsat-6 satellites after that.
Quote
Inmarsat has decided to stick with SpaceX for the 5-F4 satellite, but to seek alternatives for the mid-2017 S-band satellite launch.

“It’s largely a function of where you are in the manifest,” Pearce said of Inmarsat’s launch reasoning. “With Inmarsat 5 F4, we’re well up in the queue — I think we are number five or six.
...
With the S-band EAN satellite, he said, the reasoning is different.

“We are further [back in] the queue and therefore there’s a risk of further delays because SpaceX not only has to get back to flight but to demonstrate that it can maintain a very good launch schedule. So you could presumably have a day-to-day delay.
...
Pearce said it remain possible that SpaceX will be able to confirm a May or June launch, but that would be difficult to achieve in the deadline Inmarsat has to find an alternative rocket.
...
“It’s probably more likely we would look to exercise one of the options we have been quietly cultivating behind the scenes,” Pearce said. “We’ve talked about one of them, which is the [International Launch Services] Proton launch that we have up our sleeve anyway. But we do have other options as well...”
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 11/03/2016 04:48 pm
Inmarsat 6 F1 launching in 2020 is also a new addition to the manifest (see article in previous post).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 11/03/2016 08:49 pm
The following changes are needed to the manifest:

Additions:
Inmarsat 5 F4, 2017-Q1 (probably not before February) on F9 to GTO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1606107#msg1606107)
Bangabandhu, 2017-12 on F9 to GTO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1602013#msg1602013)
Inmarsat 6 F1, 2020 on F9? to GTO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1606208#msg1606208)

Change Dates:
Move Koreasat 5A to 2017-Q1 from TBD (was late 2016 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.msg1570378#msg1570378))
Move Intelsat 35e to 2017-Q2 from 2017-Q1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1603885#msg1603885)
Move Iridium flight dates for flights 2 through 7 to 2017-03, 2017-05, 2017-07, 2017-09, 2017-11, 2018-01?
SES-11 is scheduled for 2017-H1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1603993#msg1603993), so I'd probably stick it no earlier than April for now
Move Falcon Heavy Demo to 2017-05 from 2017-03 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1598593#msg1598593)
Move CCTCAP DM1 to 2017-07 from 2017-05 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41557.msg1605886#msg1605886)
CCTCAP In Flight Abort Test will be later in the year if it even happens in 2017
Move STP-2 to 2017-Q3 from 2017-03 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40890.msg1567389#msg1567389)
Move CCTCAP DM2 to 2017-11 from 2017-08 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41557.msg1605886#msg1605886)

Other:
If Europasat stays with SpaceX it will launch on F9 instead of FH (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1606107#msg1606107)
GRACE-FO isn't confirmed as a SpaceX payload, maybe mark it somehow as unconfirmed
There is only one ViaSat 3 launch, remove one row

Mission threads to link:
Intelsat 35e (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)
Inmarsat 5 F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)
Falcon Heavy Demo (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0)
STP-2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)
EuropaSat/Hellas-Sat 3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40756.0)
PSN-6 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)
Koreasat 5A (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)

Edit: Adjusted STP-2 date
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 11/04/2016 03:00 pm
Elon said publicly in interview on CNBC that they are aiming for mid-December RTF.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 11/07/2016 08:07 pm
2017-01     F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A

Hey starhawk92, just wanted to offer up some more information regarding the first stage ID numbers. When SES-10 flies on the CRS-8 booster, it will get a new F9-XXX identifier (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4qe25x/rspacex_ask_anything_thread_july_2016_22/d5n5692/). Those are SpaceX's internal flight numbers, and do not get used twice (even with a -X modification). SpaceX internally gives all first and second stages serial numbers that follow the format of B1XXX and B2XXX respectively (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4yxuqs/best_of_b1019_raised_vertical_at_spacexs/d6ra814/). These never change and Bill Carton found out that they will soon be painted on the boosters (but obscured by folded legs) (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5a6urw/mcgregor_update_thanks_to_bill_carton_new_core_on/d9e63l3/). For example, the CRS-8 first stage was B1021. When that first stage launches SES-10 next year, it will become B1021-2, with the -X representing the number of times it has flown.

These serial numbers are not nearly as public as the flight numbers, but like I mentioned above, they are now painting them directly on the cores. We're keeping track of them (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores) in the SpaceX subreddit, and we only fill in ones that are confirmed (no inferring). Use this info how you will, I just thought I'd let you know!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 11/07/2016 08:37 pm
2017-01     F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A

Hey starhawk92, just wanted to offer up some more information regarding the first stage ID numbers. When SES-10 flies on the CRS-8 booster, it will get a new F9-XXX identifier (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4qe25x/rspacex_ask_anything_thread_july_2016_22/d5n5692/). Those are SpaceX's internal flight numbers, and do not get used twice (even with a -X modification). SpaceX internally gives all first and second stages serial numbers that follow the format of B1XXX and B2XXX respectively (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4yxuqs/best_of_b1019_raised_vertical_at_spacexs/d6ra814/). These never change and Bill Carton found out that they will soon be painted on the boosters (but obscured by folded legs) (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5a6urw/mcgregor_update_thanks_to_bill_carton_new_core_on/d9e63l3/). For example, the CRS-8 first stage was B1021. When that first stage launches SES-10 next year, it will become B1021-2, with the -X representing the number of times it has flown.

These serial numbers are not nearly as public as the flight numbers, but like I mentioned above, they are now painting them directly on the cores. We're keeping track of them (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores) in the SpaceX subreddit, and we only fill in ones that are confirmed (no inferring). Use this info how you will, I just thought I'd let you know!

This is great, but if all Falcon 9 first stage serial numbers start with "B1" then starhawk92's XX-N format has just about the same information, does it not?  The only obvious difference is that the SpaceX serialization starts with "-1" on the first flight. If Starhawk92 uses "-2" on the first reflight they should match.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 11/07/2016 09:22 pm
2017-01     F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A

Hey starhawk92, just wanted to offer up some more information regarding the first stage ID numbers. When SES-10 flies on the CRS-8 booster, it will get a new F9-XXX identifier (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4qe25x/rspacex_ask_anything_thread_july_2016_22/d5n5692/). Those are SpaceX's internal flight numbers, and do not get used twice (even with a -X modification). SpaceX internally gives all first and second stages serial numbers that follow the format of B1XXX and B2XXX respectively (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4yxuqs/best_of_b1019_raised_vertical_at_spacexs/d6ra814/). These never change and Bill Carton found out that they will soon be painted on the boosters (but obscured by folded legs) (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5a6urw/mcgregor_update_thanks_to_bill_carton_new_core_on/d9e63l3/). For example, the CRS-8 first stage was B1021. When that first stage launches SES-10 next year, it will become B1021-2, with the -X representing the number of times it has flown.

These serial numbers are not nearly as public as the flight numbers, but like I mentioned above, they are now painting them directly on the cores. We're keeping track of them (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores) in the SpaceX subreddit, and we only fill in ones that are confirmed (no inferring). Use this info how you will, I just thought I'd let you know!

This is great, but if all Falcon 9 first stage serial numbers start with "B1" then starhawk92's XX-N format has just about the same information, does it not?  The only obvious difference is that the SpaceX serialization starts with "-1" on the first flight. If Starhawk92 uses "-2" on the first reflight they should match.

No, they are fundamentally different types of numbers. SES-10 will have a different flight number than CRS-8. That wouldn't make sense to call the SES-10 mission F9-023-2, they are completely separate flights. The only similarity between them is the first stage, but that's not what the F9-XXX number identifies. F9-XXX numbers are essentially mission numbers, they're used for one flight and that's it, even ones that don't leave the pad. (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5aocs9/chris_b_on_twitter_not_official_but_we_understand/d9iw3eh/?context=10000) CRS-8 was Falcon 9 Flight 23. SES-10 will be Falcon 9 Flight 32 or something.

The B1XXX numbers are first stage serial numbers. The mission F9-023 (CRS-8) used the first stage B1021-1. The mission F9-032 (SES-10) will use booster B1021-2. Same booster, different F9-XXX.

Edit: I initially misunderstood. Yes, using the maiden flight of the booster (F9-023-1) will have the same information as serial numbers (B1021-2). However it may get a little confusing when SES-10 is F9-032 and uses booster F9-023-1. But that definitely seems to be the more reliable method for now.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 11/08/2016 01:25 am
For the time being we are going to use the number of the first flight as the core number since we do not have serial numbers for all of the cores. If you don't think that method makes sense then you can use a different scheme on Reddit. If we are getting more consistent serial number information in the future then we could look at it again.

Edit:  When I said first flight I really meant the F9-xx numbers we've been using.  As we've seen before (and may see again in December) the public numbers for the boosters can actually fly out of order.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 11/08/2016 04:09 pm
I see where you are going old_sellsword.

My purpose for this manifest from day 1 was to track the reuse.  I think that is where we differ.  I agree with you that they are fundamentally different missions.  But my point of the notation here is that the same core can be traced back through it's mission history.  We can say that core-xx flew on flight a, b (first reuse), c (second), etc.  That is really the information which interests *me* directly.

We can add another column for the serial numbers if the NSF Boat People can pick up on them consistently and those who follow this thread want it tracked.  No problem.

Thanks, old_sellsword, for dropping by with the information, it is very interesting and we'll watch for it!

Thank you!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deptrai on 11/10/2016 10:55 pm
The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.

Current best guess is 34 launches in 2017, including 7 in January?  That seems optimistic even for Elon.

I really appreciate this thread as it sometimes helps my planning more than the info I get direct from SpaceX.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 11/10/2016 11:30 pm
This isn't the polling thread for the number of launches, so let's refrain from our guess for next year.

Starhawk92 has decided to use numerical months instead of using Q1, H1, etc.  A lot of the stuff listed on the manifest as 2017-01 would be better thought of as 2017-Q1.

The Iridium dates still need to be moved back (Iridium flight 2 wouldn't be before March).  STP-2 needs to move to the 3rd quarter.  Crew Dragon test flights need to be moved back to match the latest FPIP.  FH Demo should probably move back a couple months.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 11/11/2016 04:16 pm
I think I finally have all this merged in; still have related links & footnotes though.  Many thanks, gongora!

The following changes are needed to the manifest:

Additions:
Inmarsat 5 F4, 2017-Q1 (probably not before February) on F9 to GTO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1606107#msg1606107)
Bangabandhu, 2017-12 on F9 to GTO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1602013#msg1602013)
Inmarsat 6 F1, 2020 on F9? to GTO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1606208#msg1606208)

Change Dates:
Move Koreasat 5A to 2017-Q1 from TBD (was late 2016 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.msg1570378#msg1570378))
Move Intelsat 35e to 2017-Q2 from 2017-Q1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1603885#msg1603885)
Move Iridium flight dates for flights 2 through 7 to 2017-03, 2017-05, 2017-07, 2017-09, 2017-11, 2018-01?
SES-11 is scheduled for 2017-H1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1603993#msg1603993), so I'd probably stick it no earlier than April for now
Move Falcon Heavy Demo to 2017-05 from 2017-03 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1598593#msg1598593)
Move CCTCAP DM1 to 2017-07 from 2017-05 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41557.msg1605886#msg1605886)
CCTCAP In Flight Abort Test will be later in the year if it even happens in 2017
Move STP-2 to 2017-Q3 from 2017-03 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40890.msg1567389#msg1567389)
Move CCTCAP DM2 to 2017-11 from 2017-08 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41557.msg1605886#msg1605886)

Other:
If Europasat stays with SpaceX it will launch on F9 instead of FH (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1606107#msg1606107)
GRACE-FO isn't confirmed as a SpaceX payload, maybe mark it somehow as unconfirmed
There is only one ViaSat 3 launch, remove one row

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 11/11/2016 04:18 pm
Going to wait on adjusting Iridium dates until the first one finally gets off the pad.

I also know there has recently been a load of information about CRS missions with a lot of yummy date information.  I'll try to get that in soon as well.

Hopefully we'll get to put something above the dotted line in about a month!

GO SPACEX!!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 11/22/2016 08:45 pm
Another win
Another flight
SWOT April 2021 F9 Vandenberg


    November 22, 2016
CONTRACT RELEASE C16-029
NASA Selects Launch Services for Global Surface Water Survey Mission
NASA has selected Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. Launch is targeted for April 2021 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

The total cost for NASA to launch SWOT is approximately $112 million, which includes the launch service; spacecraft processing; payload integration; and tracking, data and telemetry support.

Designed to make the first-ever global survey of Earth’s surface water, in addition to high-resolution ocean measurements, the SWOT mission will collect detailed measurements of how water bodies on Earth change over time. The satellite will survey at least 90 percent of the globe, studying Earth's lakes, rivers, reservoirs and oceans, at least twice every 21 days, aid in freshwater management around the world, to improve ocean circulation models and weather and climate predictions. The SWOT spacecraft will be jointly developed and managed by NASA and the French space agency Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES).

NASA’s Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The SWOT Project office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, manages spacecraft development for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For more information about NASA programs and missions, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 11/23/2016 07:29 pm
Please take the discussion of the SWOT launch contract here. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)  This thread is for the manifest and discussions about launch dates and such. 
My apologies if posting the notice here rather than linking to it lead us off topic.

Edit/Lar:  What he said. Also, I moved the discussion posts about SWOT to the SWOT thread linked above.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 11/25/2016 06:38 pm
Echostar now planned for Jan 8-9, see this post (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.msg1612973#msg1612973) and this article (http://spacenews.com/echostar-expects-jan-8-or-9-spacex-launch-confronts-brazil-and-eu-deadlines/) for details.

Too bad its not December, but considering it is the launch after RTF, first launch from a new pad, and the holidays this makes sense.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 11/25/2016 11:43 pm
NASA Langley has asked for names of people who want to attend events associated with the launch of SpX-10 with their SAGE-III-ISS instrument (https://fpd.larc.nasa.gov/sage-iii.html) in the Dragon's Trunk as external cargo. 
The launch date they are listing is January 22.
That's barely eight weeks from today. :o
(Can someone please determine and post the launch time if it were to happen on that day?)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lee Jay on 11/27/2016 02:40 am
(Can someone please determine and post the launch time if it were to happen on that day?)

I used ridiculous techniques to determine it would be in the 8:30pm-9:00pm range, assuming no ISS orbit changes between now and then.  Hopefully, someone else will be able to use far better approaches than those I employed.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Flying Beaver on 11/27/2016 02:59 am
(Can someone please determine and post the launch time if it were to happen on that day?)

I used ridiculous techniques to determine it would be in the 8:30pm-9:00pm range, assuming no ISS orbit changes between now and then.  Hopefully, someone else will be able to use far better approaches than those I employed.

Subtract ~2 hours a month (position of the earth round the sun, solar day etc) .

So say 6-6:30pm then.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/01/2016 03:19 pm
OK, I think we are up-to-date with latest set of launch dates.  Next changes will be moving the Iridium launches to their mandated pacing.  All eyes on Vandenberg!!

Thanks for the updates and information, everyone!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 12/06/2016 11:38 am
Starhawk,
you have listed Red Dragon flights for 2024-2029. My understanding is, that everything after the initial ITS flight in 2022 (Elon time) will be ITS based, too.
So, if you have the 2022 flight listed as ITS, the following Mars flights should use the ITS as well.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 12/06/2016 09:15 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/806259747183820800)
Quote
Industry officials: looks like SpaceX return to flight w/ 10 IRDM sats from VAFB will slip into early January. Had been set for Dec 16.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 12/06/2016 10:47 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/806259747183820800)
Quote
Industry officials: looks like SpaceX return to flight w/ 10 IRDM sats from VAFB will slip into early January. Had been set for Dec 16.

While I appreciate the posting, gongora, it is somehow hard to use the "like" response.
Given that the 16th is less than ten days away and the lack of news, this is not surprising.
Still some hope that CRS/SpX-10 could launch when SpX-11 was supposed to. according to the FPIP, on 1Feb2017?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 12/07/2016 04:25 am
Was working this and SpaceX have ruled out December 16....but there's no official new launch date target, so likely January.

Time to erase the date and time for Iridium, and probably the dates for Echostar 23 and SpX-10 and who knows how many else.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 12/08/2016 08:11 am
Peter B. de Selding just reported (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/806778949590130688) that Inmarsat is dumping SpaceX for Europasat's launch and booked a Q2 2017 slot on Ariane 5 instead. Inmarsat 5-F4 still TBD.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Anabasis on 12/08/2016 10:17 am
Is this the same Hellas-Sat 3 that was reported to go on Proton here:
Per NSF Russian Launch Schedule: EuropaSat/HellasSat 3 has been reassigned to fly on launcher Proton-M. SpaceX contract for flight of EuropaSat/HellasSat 3 was not cancelled, rather another company payload (unknown) will fly on the booked flight on an unknown date.
2017Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time...Not early than the second quarter - Europasat (HellasSat-3) – Proton-M/Briz-M – Baikonur[/size]...[/size]Changes on November 29[/size]


Or are we talking about another move?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 12/08/2016 02:09 pm
Dec 7, 2016, Aviation Week: "SpaceX Still Lacks License To Launch Iridium"
http://aviationweek.com/connected-aerospace/spacex-still-lacks-license-launch-iridium

Quote
The company has yet to present a final report to the FAA’s commercial space office, which licenses commercial launches ...

“The investigation into the SpaceX mishap is ongoing,” the agency spokesman said Wednesday. “The FAA continues to work closely with SpaceX as they conduct the investigation in compliance with all applicable regulations and license requirements. The FAA has not issued a license to SpaceX for a launch in December or January at this time.”
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ElGuapoGuano1 on 12/08/2016 02:21 pm
I just saw a similar article on Wired. What do you guys think? Is January going to happen or do schedules keep slipping to the right?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 12/08/2016 02:21 pm
Is this the same Hellas-Sat 3 that was reported to go on Proton here:
Per NSF Russian Launch Schedule: EuropaSat/HellasSat 3 has been reassigned to fly on launcher Proton-M. SpaceX contract for flight of EuropaSat/HellasSat 3 was not cancelled, rather another company payload (unknown) will fly on the booked flight on an unknown date.
2017Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time...Not early than the second quarter - Europasat (HellasSat-3) – Proton-M/Briz-M – Baikonur[/size]...[/size]Changes on November 29[/size]


Or are we talking about another move?

Same one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/08/2016 05:10 pm
Multiple news sources saying slip to January on Iridium.

Example:
Geekwire via Yahoo News (https://sports.yahoo.com/news/spacex-targets-early-january-falcon-222715608.html)

Updating the manifest . . . .
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 12/08/2016 08:40 pm
Multiple news sources saying slip to January on Iridium.

Example: Geekwire via Yahoo News (https://sports.yahoo.com/news/spacex-targets-early-january-falcon-222715608.html)

Updating the manifest . . . .

Thanks, but perhaps you can remove the specific days from the first three launches.
We have no official notification of any of these, and they are getting less and less likely.
Iridium is HIGHLY unlikely to launch on the first of January.  That would be a pure guess and we have to date not posted guesses here.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 12/09/2016 11:38 pm
Another one for twelve to fourteen months from now?

BUMP: GRACE-FO is official confirmed on an F9 as a rideshare with 5 Iridium NEXT Sats during the launch window of December 2017 till February 2018. Logical Iridium Flights would be flights 6 and 7. I'm told that GFO's PAF and adapter is compatible however some mods to the Iridium Adapter is needed.

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/global-geomonitoring-and-gravity-field/topics/development-operation-and-analysis-of-gravity-field-satellite-missions/grace-fo/launch-vehicle-system/ (http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/global-geomonitoring-and-gravity-field/topics/development-operation-and-analysis-of-gravity-field-satellite-missions/grace-fo/launch-vehicle-system/)
http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/global-geomonitoring-and-gravity-field/topics/development-operation-and-analysis-of-gravity-field-satellite-missions/grace-fo/ (http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/global-geomonitoring-and-gravity-field/topics/development-operation-and-analysis-of-gravity-field-satellite-missions/grace-fo/)
http://www.aei.mpg.de/gracefo (http://www.aei.mpg.de/gracefo)
http://phys.org/news/2016-11-grace-follow-on-satellite.html (http://phys.org/news/2016-11-grace-follow-on-satellite.html)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Salo on 12/13/2016 08:59 am
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2016/12/12/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-flight-dates/
Quote
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1: November 2017
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2: May 2018
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 12/14/2016 04:23 pm
While updating the crew demo flights, please remove the "crew dragon (with crew)" currently listed on August 2017. This is extraneous, since the DM1, DM2 and the in flight abort are all listed separately, and both ordered operational missions are already listed in 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 12/15/2016 02:12 pm
Peter B. de Selding on twitter (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/809410239904759808):

Quote from: PBdeS
IRDM has 7 10-sat Falcon 9 launches scheduled ideally in Jan, April, June, Aug, Oct, Dec, Feb. GRACE-FO after that.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Navier–Stokes on 12/15/2016 04:10 pm
Inmrsat has retained the reservation originally intended for EuropaSat/Hellas-Sat 3 (which will now launch on an Ariane 5):

Quote from: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/809410892047810561
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes   
SpaceX/Inmarsat(1): Inmarsat/Arabsat didnt cancel SpaceX contract, but pulled their joint sat from the queue for earlier Arianespace launch.
6:52 AM - 15 Dec 2016

Quote from: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/809411450976530432
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes   
SpaceX/Inmarsat(2): Inmarsat/Arabsat maintain their existing SpaceX reservation, can use later. Inmarsat has 2 other SpaceX reservations.
6:55 AM - 15 Dec 2016
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 12/16/2016 09:54 pm
Yesterday (12/15) you removed the NET dates from the first three launches (good idea) and redistributed the Iridium launches.
Isn't the second Iridium flight supposed to trail the first by three months, not two as now listed?
Oh, and Chris Bergin just posted (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41751.msg1620462#msg1620462) a NET Jan 7 placeholder for Iridium Next flight 1.  Isn't it always just like that?

PS There are 34 launches on your list in 2017, for those contemplating the 2017 SpaceX Launch Poll (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0)

edit: spelling, pointing to the correct poll thread (Thanks, Lar)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 12/16/2016 10:07 pm
Yesterday (12/15) you removed the NET dates from the first three launches (good idea) and redistributed the Iridium launches.
Isn't the second Iridium flight supposed to trail the first by three months, not two as now listed?
Oh, and Chris Bergin just posted (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41751.msg1620462#msg1620462) a NET Jan 7 placeholder for Iridium Next flight 1.  Isn't it always just like that?

edit: spelling

PS There are 34 launches on your list in 2017, for those contemplating the 2017 SpaceX Launch Poll (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0)

That's actually the stage recovery poll ... This is the launch poll  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0

But thanks for pimping them in any case!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 12/18/2016 06:25 pm

PS There are 34 launches on your list in 2017, for those contemplating the 2017 SpaceX Launch Poll (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0)
Pending changes would make it 31 effectively (The launch abort test doesn't count by definition, crew dragon DM-2 has been pushed to 2018, and there is an extra "crew dragon (with crew)" line in 2017.)

31 also matches the total from the excerpt of Salo's schedule in the poll thread if you pull out the DM2 mission. (I haven't compared the lists line by line, so there may be some discrepancies if you do that)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/20/2016 03:29 pm
Added updates; old_sellsword gave a list of (what I assume are) NET months for the Iridium launches above.  They vary between 2 and 3 months -- is it a more rigid 90-day assumption?

Thanks again everyone, we could be about 3 weeks away from getting things rolling again!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 12/20/2016 03:37 pm
Added updates; old_sellsword gave a list of (what I assume are) NET months for the Iridium launches above.  They vary between 2 and 3 months -- is it a more rigid 90-day assumption?

Thanks again everyone, we could be about 3 weeks away from getting things rolling again!!
The gap between the first and second launch is required to be at least 3 months for insurance reasons (checkout of satellites on orbit to reduce risk). It seems like they are aiming for every other month after that.

Thanks for the work you do keeping up with the perpetual changes to the schedule.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/20/2016 05:15 pm
Oh, almost forgot, sorry to wait to post this late into the season, hopefully nobody is taking a vacation from NSF!!

2016 is essentially over -- time to archive!  Should I just clip and post that part and move on?  Is there a better way to go about this where it's easier to find?  Is there precedent?

Also, hints on tags would be great to cover how spaceheads search.

All thoughts, please!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: russianhalo117 on 12/20/2016 06:08 pm
Oh, almost forgot, sorry to wait to post this late into the season, hopefully nobody is taking a vacation from NSF!!

2016 is essentially over -- time to archive!  Should I just clip and post that part and move on?  Is there a better way to go about this where it's easier to find?  Is there precedent?

Also, hints on tags would be great to cover how spaceheads search.

All thoughts, please!
Typical ways of switching to the new year is shown below. the alternative is to  create a launched thread and a yet to be launched thread:

Date (UTC)   - Country - Rocket               - Site/Pad     - Payload
18 Dec 18:27 - USA     - Atlas V 431          - CC   SLC-41  - Echostar XIX
20 Dec 11:00 - JPN     - Epsilon              - USC  Mu      - ERG
21 Dec 19:15 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - TanSat
21 Dec 20:30 - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Star One D1 / JCSAT-15
26 Dec       - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - TSLC 9       - Gaojing-1 (x2) / BY70-1
28 Dec 16:26 - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI  81/24   - EchoStar XXI
31 Dec       - PRC     - Kuaizhou 1A          - JSLC         - Jilin 1-03 et al.
   Dec??     - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2?   - XSLC 2       - Tongxin Jishu Shiyan 2

07 Jan (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - Iridium-NeXT (x10)
11 Jan 22:50 - JPN     - SS-520               - USC          - TRICOM-1
20 Jan       - IND     - GSLV Mk.III          - SDSC SLP     - GSAT-19
20 Jan 00:45 - USA     - Atlas V 401          - CC   SLC-41  - SBIRS GEO-3
22 Jan?      - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Dragon CRS-10 (or 2Q)
24 Jan 07:44 - JPN     - H-IIA                - TNSC Y1      - DSN-2
27 Jan 01:00 - USA     - Atlas V 401          - VAFB SLC-3E  - NROL-79 (Intruder x2)
27 Jan       - IND     - PSLV-XL              - SDSC FLP     - Cartosat-2D et al.
28 Jan 01:03 - RUS/EUR - Soyuz-STB/Fregat-MT  - CSG  ELS     - HispaSat 36W-1
28 Jan       - RUS     – Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat-M  - BAI  31/6    - Kanopus-V-IK et al.
   Jan       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Echostar XXIII
   Jan       - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI  81/24   - Blagovest (or Feb)

02 Feb??     - RUS     - Soyuz-U              - BAI  1/5     - Progress MS-05
03 Mar??     – RUS     - Rokot/Briz-KM        - PLE  133/3   - Gonets-M (x3) / Blits-M (or Jan)
14 Feb       - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Intelsat 32e / Telkom-3S
   Feb (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - SES-10

07 Mar 01:49 - EUR     - Vega                 - CSG  ELV     - Sentinel-2B
09 Mar 00:00 - USA     - Delta IV-M+(5,4)     - CC   SLC-37B - WGS-9
17 Mar 02:00 - USA     - Atlas V 401          - CC   SLC-41  - Cygnus OA-7
27 Mar       – RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz MS-04
31 Mar       - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2 or 4   - TSLC 9       - CAS-4A/B         
   Mar       - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI          - HispaSat 30W-6
   Mar       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - NROL-76 (Quasar?)
   Mar       - IND     - GSLV Mk.II           - SDSC SLP     - GSAT-9
   Mar (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Dragon CRS-11 et al.
   Mar (NET) - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - SGDC 1 / TBD
   Mar (NET) - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - EDRS-C / TBD
   
Q1           - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - PLE  43/4    - Uragan-M No.56
Q1           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4C       -              - Hede-1
Q1           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2    - XSLC         - Shijian 13
Q1           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4B       - TSLC 9       - Haiyan 1-03
Q1?          - USA/NZ  - Electron             - MAH  LC-1    - Outerspace 2/3
Q1?          - USA/NZ  - Electron             - MAH  LC-1    - ANDESITE et al.
Q1 (NET)     - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Koreasat-5A
Q1 (NET)     - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - ViaSat-2 / TBD
Q1 (NET)     - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Al Yah 3 / TBD
Q1 (NET)     - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - GSAT-11 / TBD
Q1 (NET)     - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - GSAT-17 / TBD
Q1 (NET)     - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Hylas-4 / TBD
Q1 (NET)     - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Koreasat-7 / TBD

04 Apr       - RUS/EUR - Soyuz-STB/Fregat-MT  - CSG  ELS     - SES-15
   Apr       - PRC     - Chang Zheng 7        - WSLC 201     - Tianzhou-1
   Apr (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - Iridium-NeXT (x10)
Apr/May      - IND     - PSLV                 - SDSC         - EMIsat et al.

04 May       - USA     - Atlas V 531          - CC   SLC-41  - AEHF-4
28 May       – RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz MS-05
   May (NET) - USA     - Minotaur-C 3210      - VAFB LC-576E - SkySat-Gen2 (x6) et al.

01 Jun       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Dragon CRS-12
14 Jun       - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1a           - BAI  31/6    - Progress MS-06
13 Jun       - USA     - Atlas V 541          - VAFB SLC-3E  - NROL-42 (Trumpet)
15 Jun       - USA     - Pegasus XL           - KWAJ (air)   - ICON (or NET October)
   Jun       - USA     - Antares 230          - MARS LP-0A   - Cygnus OA-8
   Jun       – RUS     - Rokot/Briz-KM?       - PLE  133/3   - Sentinel-5p

Q2           - USA     - Electron             - MAH  LC-1    - Flock (x TBD)
Q2 (NET)     - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI          - AsiaSat 9
Q2 (NET)     - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - Intelsat 35e
Q2 (NET)     - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - Iridium-NeXT (x10)
H1           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2    - XSLC         - AlcomSat-1
H1           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - BulgariaSat-1
H1           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - SES-11
H1           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - Inmarsat-5 F4
H1           - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Eutelsat 172B / TBD
Midyear      - RUS     - Proton-M/DM-03       - BAI          - Elektro-L No.3
Midyear      - USA     - Falcon Heavy         - KSC  LC-39A  - DemoSat
Midyear      - PRC     - Chang Zheng 5        - WSLC 101     - Shijian 18
Midyear      - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - EuropaSat

   Jul       - USA     - Minotaur IV/Orion-38 - CC   SLC-46  - SensorSat
   Jul       - RUS/UKR - Zenit-3F             - BAI  45/1    - AngoSat
Jul/Aug      - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat-M  - VOST 1S      - Kanopus-V (x2)

03 Aug       - USA     - Atlas V 401          - CC   SLC-41  - TDRS-M (or 31 Oct)
31 Aug       - USA     - Atlas V 421          - CC   SLC-41  - NROL-52 (Quasar)
   Aug       - EUR     - Ariane 5 ES          - CSG  ELA-3   - Galileo-FOC (x4)
   Aug       - EUR     - Vega                 - CSG  ELV     - Venus et al.
   Aug (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - Iridium-NeXT (x10)
   
12 Sep       - RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz MS-06
13 Sep       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Dragon CRS-13
25 Sep (NET) - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - VRSS-2
   Sep       - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2    - XSLC         - Zhongxing-6C

Q3           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - SES-16 / TBA
Q3           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - Es'hail-2
Q3           - USA     - Falcon Heavy         - KSC  LC-39A  - STP-02 et al.

12 Oct       - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1a           - BAI  31/6    - Progress MS-07
   Oct       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - SAOCOM-1A
   Oct       - USA     - Delta IV-M+(5,2)     - VAFB SLC-6   - NROL-47 (Topaz)
   Oct (NET) - USA     - Delta II 7920-10C    - VAFB SLC-2W  - JPSS-1 et al.
   Oct (NET) - USA     - Atlas V 401          - CC   SLC-41  - SBIRS GEO-4
   Oct (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - Iridium-NeXT (x10)

30 Nov       - RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz MS-07
10 Nov?      - USA     - Delta II 7420-10C    - VAFB SLC-2W  - ICESat II et al.
17 Nov       - USA     - Antares 230          - MARS LP-0A   - Cygnus OA-9
   Nov       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC  LC-39A  - Dragon v2 DM1
Nov/Dec      - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - Amazonas-5

07 Dec       - USA     - Atlas V 551          - CC   SLC-41  - AFSPC-11
16 Dec       - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - Bangabandhu-1
20 Dec (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - TESS (or 2018)
   Dec       - USA/UK  - LauncherOne          - SPAM (air)   - Dove? et al.
   Dec       - IND     - PSLV                 - SDSC         - Cartosat-2E
   Dec       - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Gaojing-3/4
   Dec (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - GRACE-FO (x2) / Iridium-NeXT (x5) (or Q1 2018)
   Dec (NET) - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - Iridium-NeXT (x10)

   
Q4           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - ORS-6 / SHERPA et al.
Q4           - RUS     - Rokot/Briz-KM?       - PLE  133/3   - Geo-IK-2 No.13L
Q4           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4B       - TSLC 9       - Haiyang 1-04
Q4           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4B       - TSLC 9       - Haiyang 2-02
Q4           - PRC     - Chang Zheng 5        - WSLC 101     - Chang'e 5 (or 2018)
Q4           - EUR     - Ariane 5 ECA         - CSG  ELA-3   - SES-12 / TBD
Q4 (NET)     - EUR     - Vega                 - CSG  ELV     - ADM-Aeolus
Q4           - USA/NZ  - Electron             - MAH  LC-1    - Moon Express
H2           – RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - VOS  1S      - Meteor-M No.2-1 et al.
H2           - USA     - Atlas V              - CC   SLC-41  - AFSPC-7
H2           - EUR     - Ariane 5 ECA         - CSG  ELA-3   - BSAT-4a / TBD
H2           - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - SES-14
H2           - USA/UK  - LauncherOne          - SPAM (air)   - DemoSat?

TBD          - EUR     - Ariane 5 ECA         - CSG  ELA-3   - Intelsat 38 / TBD
TBD          - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - IGS Radar 5
TBD          - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - GCOM-C / SLATS
TBD          - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - QZSS-2
TBD          - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - QZSS-3
TBD          - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - IGS Optical 6
TBD          - JPN     - Epsilon              - USC  Mu      - ASNARO-2
TBD          - JPN     - Epsilon              - USC  Mu      - ITDS-1
TBD          - JPN     - Epsilon              - USC  Mu      - JV-LOTUSat-1
TBD          - USA     - Atlas V              - VAFB SLC-3E  - CLS I-9
TBD          - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - VAFB SLC-4E  - FormoSat-5 / SHERPA et al.
TBD          - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - KSC/CC       - PSN-6 / TBA
TBD          - RUS     - Proton-M/DM-03       - BAI  81/24   - Uragan-M (x3)
TBD          - RUS     - Proton-M/DM-03       - BAI  81/24   - Uragan-M (x3)
TBD          - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b           - PLE  43/4    - Labrint No.11
TBD          - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b           - PLE  43/4    - Pion No.901
TBD          - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - PLE  43/4    - Tundra No.2
TBD          - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - PLE  43/4    - Uragan-M No.52
TBD          - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - BAI  31/6    - Meteor-MP / Zond-M
TBD          - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1v/Volga     - PLE  43/4    - 14F150 No.2
TBD          - RUS     - Angara 1.2/AM        - PLE  35/1    - TBD
TBD          - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Jilin-2
TBD          - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Jilin-3
TBD          - IND     - GSLV Mk.II           - SDSC SLP     - GISAT
TBD          - IND     - GSLV Mk.II           - SDSC SLP     - GSAT-6A
TBD??        - RUS/UKR - Zenit-3F             - BAI  45/1    - Lybid'


This is a summary of individual national launch schedules found in the applicable sections of the forum.
Individual threads contain more details on each launch, and launches beyond 2017.
See below for links to individual threads, 2016 completed launches and statistics


Updates
Red - 17 December 2016
See above for worldwide launch schedule up to the end of 2017

2016 Launches to Date
ID  - Date (UTC)   - Country - Rocket               - Site/Pad     - Payload
001 - 15 Jan 16:57 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2    - XSLC 3       - Belintersat-1
002 - 17 Jan 18:42 - USA     - Falcon 9 v1.1        - VAFB SLC-4E  - Jason-3
003 - 20 Jan 04:01 - IND     - PSLV-XL              - SDSC SLP     - IRNSS-1E
004 - 27 Jan 23:20 - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Intelsat 29e
005 - 29 Jan 22:20 - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI  200/39  - Eutelsat 9B

006 - 01 Feb 07:29 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3C/YZ-1  - XSLC 2       - Beidou-3 M3S
007 - 05 Feb 13:38 - USA     - Atlas V 401          - CC   SLC-41  - USA-266 [GPS IIF-12]
008 - 07 Feb 00:21 - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - PLE  43/4    - Kosmos 2514 [Uragan-M No.51]
009 - 07 Feb 00:29 - PRK     - Unha-3?              - SOH          - Kwangmyŏngsŏng-4 - outcome unclear
010 - 10 Feb 11:40 - USA     - Delta IV-M+(5,2)     - VAFB SLC-6   - USA-267 [NROL-45/Topaz]
011 - 16 Feb 17:57 – RUS     - Rokot/Briz-KM        - PLE  133/3   - Sentinel-3A
012 - 17 Feb 08:45 - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - Hitomi / Horyu / ChubuSat (x2)

013 - 04 Mar 23:35 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - SES-9
014 - 09 Mar 05:20 - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Eutelsat 65 West A
015 - 10 Mar 10:31 - IND     - PSLV-XL              - SDSC SLP     - IRNSS-1F
016 - 13 Mar 18:56 - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b           - BAI  31/6    - Resurs-P No.3
017 - 14 Mar 09:31 - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI  200/39  - ExoMars TGO / Schiaparelli
018 - 18 Mar 21:26 - RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz TMA-20M
019 - 23 Mar 03:05 - USA     - Atlas V 401          - CC   SLC-41  - Cygnus OA-6 et al.
020 - 24 Mar 09:42 - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1a           - PLE  43/4    - Kosmos 2515 [Bars-M No.2]
021 - 29 Mar 20:11 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3A       - XSLC 2       - Beidou-2 IGSO6
022 - 31 Mar 16:23 - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1a           - BAI  31/6    - Progress MS-02 / TPU-120

023 - 05 Apr 17:38 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Shijian 10
024 - 08 Apr 20:43 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - Dragon CRS-8 / BEAM
025 - 25 Apr 21:02 - RUS/EUR - Soyuz-STA/Fregat-M   - CSG  ELS     - Sentinel-1B et al.
026 - 28 Apr 02:01 - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1a/Volga     - VOST 1S      - Lomonosov et al.
027 - 28 Apr 07:20 - IND     - PSLV-XL              - SDSC FLP     - IRNSS-1G

028 - 06 May 05:21 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - JCSAT-14
029 - 05 May 02:43 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Yaogan 30 [JB-6]
030 - 24 May 08:48 - RUS/EUR - Soyuz-STB/Fregat-M   - CSG  ELS     - GalileoSat 13/14 [FM10/11]
031 - 27 May 21:39 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - Thaicom 8
032 - 29 May 08:44 - RUS     - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M  - PLE  43/4    - Kosmos 2516 [Uragan-M No.53]
033 - 30 May 03:17 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4B       - TSLC 9       - Ziyuan 3-02 / NuSat (x2)

034 - 04 Jun 14:00 – RUS     - Rokot/Briz-KM        - PLE  133/3   - Kosmos-2517 [GEO-IK-2 No.12L]
035 - 09 Jun 07:10 - RUS     - Proton-M/Briz-M      - BAI  81/24   - Intelsat 31
036 - 11 Jun 17:51 - USA     - Delta IV-H           - CC   SLC-37B - USA-268 [NROL-37/Orion]
037 - 12 Jun 15:30 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3C/G2    - XSLC 3       - Beidou-2 G7
038 - 15 Jun 14:29 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - Eutelsat 117 West B / ABS-2A
039 - 18 Jun 21:38 - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - EchoStar XVIII / BRIsat
040 - 22 Jun 03:55 - IND     - PSLV-XL              - SDSC SLP     - Cartosat-2C et al.
041 - 24 Jun 14:30 - USA     - Atlas V 551          - CC   SLC-41  - MUOS-5
042 - 25 Jun 12:00 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 7/YZ-1A  - WSLC 201     - DFFC et al.
043 - 29 Jun 03:21 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4B       - JSLC 43/603  - Shijian 16-02

044 - 07 Jul 01:36 - RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz MS-01
045 - 16 Jul 21:41 - RUS     - Soyuz-U              - BAI  31/6    - Progress MS-03
046 - 18 Jul 04:45 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - Dragon CRS-9 / IDA-2
047 - 28 Jul 12:37 - USA     - Atlas V 421          - CC   SLC-41  - USA-269 [NROL-61/Quasar]

048 - 05 Aug 16:22 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2    - XSLC 3       - Tiangtong 1-01
049 - 09 Aug 22:55 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4C       - TSLC 9       - Gaofen 3
050 - 14 Aug 05:26 - USA     - Falcon 9 FT          - CC   SLC-40  - JCSAT-16
051 - 15 Aug 17:40 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Mozi / 3CAT-2 / Lixing-1
052 - 19 Aug 04:52 - USA     - Delta IV-M+(4,2)     - CC   SLC-37B - USA-270/271 [AFSPC-6/GSSAP]
053 - 24 Aug 22:16 - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - Intelsat 33e / Intelsat 36
FTO - 31 Aug 18:55 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 4C       - TSLC 9       - Gaofen 10 - failure

054 - 08 Sep 11:20 - IND     - GSLV Mk.II           - SDSC SLP     - INSAT-3DR
055 - 08 Sep 23:05 - USA     - Atlas V 411          - CC   SLC-41  - OSIRIS-Rex
056 - 13 Sep 14:38 - ISR     - Shavit-2             - PALM         - Ofek-11
057 - 15 Sep 14:04 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2F/T     - JSLC 43/921  - Tiangong 2 / BanXing-2
058 - 16 Sep 01:43 - EUR     - Vega                 - CSG  ELV     - PeruSat / SkySat-Gen2 (x4)
059 - 26 Sep 03:42 - IND     - PSLV-G               - SDSC FLP     - SCATSAT-1 et al.

060 - 05 Oct 20:30 - EUR     - Ariane 5ECA          - CSG  ELA-3   - NBN-Co 1B / GSAT-18
061 - 16 Oct 23:30 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2F/G     - JSLC 43/921  - Shenzhou 11
062 - 17 Oct 23:45 - USA     - Antares 230          - MARS LP-0A   - Cygnus OA-5 / Lemur-2 (x4)
063 - 19 Oct 08:05 - RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  31/6    - Soyuz MS-02

064 - 02 Nov 06:20 - JPN     - H-IIA 202            - TNSC Y1      - Himawari-9
065 - 03 Nov 12:43 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 5/YZ-2   - WSLC 101     - Shijian 17
066 - 09 Nov 23:42 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 11       - JSLC         - XPNAV-1 et al.
067 - 11 Nov 18:30 - USA     - Atlas V 401          - VAFB SLC-3E  - WorldView-4 et al.
068 - 11 Nov 23:14 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 2D       - JSLC 43/603  - Yunhai 1-01
069 - 17 Nov 13:06 - EUR     - Ariane 5ES           - CSG  ELA-3   - GalileoSat 15/16/17/18 [FM07/12/13/14]
070 - 17 Nov 20:20 - RUS     - Soyuz-FG             - BAI  1/5     - Soyuz MS-03
071 - 19 Nov 23:42 - USA     - Atlas V 541          - CC   SLC-41  - GOES 16 [R]
072 - 22 Nov 15:24 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3C/G2    - XSLC 2       - Tianlian 1-04

FTO - 01 Dec 14:51 - RUS     - Soyuz-U              - BAI  1/5     - Progress MS-04 - failure
073 - 05 Dec 13:51 - EUR     - Vega                 - CSG  ELV     - Gokturk-1A
074 - 07 Dec 04:54 - IND     - PSLV-XL              - SDSC FLP     - Resourcesat-2A
075 - 07 Dec 23:52 - USA     - Delta IV-M+(5,4)     - CC   SLC-37B - USA-272 [WGS-8]
076 - 09 Dec 13:26 - JPN     - H-IIB 304            - TNSC Y2      - Kounotori 6 et al.
077 - 10 Dec 16:19 - PRC     - Chang Zheng 3B/G2    - XSLC 3       - Fengyun 4-01
078 - 15 Dec 13:37 - USA     - Pegasus-XL           - CC   (air)   - CYGNSS (x8)


2016 Statistics
By Month:  LAU  SUC  PAR  FAI
January      5    5    0    0
February     7    6    0a   1a
March       10   10    0    0
April        5b   5    0    1b
May          6    6    0    0
June        10   10    0    0
July         4    4    0    0
August       7    6    0    1
September    6c   6    0    0c
October      4    4    0    0
November     9    9    0    0
December     7    6    0    1

By Country:     LAU  SUC  PAR  FAI
China            20   19    0    1
Europe*           8d   8    0    0 
India             7    7    0    0
Israel            1    1    0    0
Japan             3    3    0    0
North Korea       1    0    0a   1a
Russia/ex-USSR*  19d  18    0    1
United States    21c  21    0    0c

By Rocket:           Country  LAU  SUC  PAR  FAI
Antares              USA        1    1    0    0
Ariane 5             EUR        6    6    0    0
Atlas V              USA        7    7    0    0
Chang Zheng 2        PRC        6    6    0    0
Chang Zheng 3        PRC        7    7    0    0
Chang Zheng 4        PRC        4    3    0    1
Chang Zheng 5        PRC        1    1    0    0
Chang Zheng 7        PRC        1    1    0    0
Chang Zheng 11       PRC        1    1    0    0
Delta IV             USA        4    4    0    0
Falcon 9             USA        8c   8    0    0c
GSLV                 IND        1    1    0    0
H-II                 JPN        3    3    0    0
Pegasus              USA        1    1    0    0
Proton               RUS        3    3    0    0
PSLV                 IND        6    6    0    0
Rokot                RUS        2    2    0    0
Shavit               ISR        1    1    0    0
Soyuz                RUS       14   13    0    1
Unha                 PRK        1    0    0a   1a
Vega                 EUR        2    2    0    0

By Launch Site:
Code  Name                               Country  LAU  SUC  PAR  FAI

BAI   Baikonur Cosmodrome                KAZ       11   10    0    1
CC    Cape Canaveral Air Force Station   USA       17c  17    0    0c
CSG   Centre Spatial Guyanais (Kourou)   FRA       10   10    0    0
JSLC  Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre    PRC        8    8    0    0
PALM  Palmachim Airbase                  ISR        1    1    0    0
PLE   Plesetsk Cosmodrome                RUS        5    5    0    0
MARS  Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport    USA        1    1    0    0
SDSC  Satish Dhawan Space Centre         IND        7    7    0    0
SOH   Sohae Satellite Launching Station  PRK        1    0    0a   1a
TNSC  Tanegashima Space Centre           JPN        3    3    0    0
TSLC  Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre    PRC        3    2    0    1
VAFB  Vandenberg Air Force Base          USA        3    3    0    0
VOST  Vostochny Cosmodrome               RUS        1    1    0    0
WSLC  Wenchang Satellite Launch Centre   PRC        2    2    0    0
XSLC  Xichang Satellite Launch Centre    PRC        6    6    0    0

Notes
a: - Outcome of February Unha launch remains unclear; here it is assumed to be a failure
b: - April Simorgh launch assumed to be intentionally suborbital
c: - Does not include September Falcon static fire failure
d: - Soyuz launches from French Guiana are counted under Russia

National Launch Schedules
China - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5060.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5060.new)
Europe - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=6114.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=6114.new)
India - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1173.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1173.new)
Iran - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32345.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32345.new)
Israel - forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=4724.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=4724.new)
Japan - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1181.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1181.new)
North Korea - forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32354.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32354.new)
Russia - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.new)
United States - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.new)
Misc - http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15847.new (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15847.new)

Updates
Red - 17 December 2016
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 12/20/2016 10:22 pm
 It is not clear how to apply what russianhalo117 has shown to the Manifest page.
You could quote the first post in one to show where the manifest stood at the end of 2016.
But I wouldn't peg the transition to the end of the calendar year when the official announcement of RTF will be more significant.  We can wait a few extra days, or start the "new year" a few days early, when that switch is thrown, IMO.
Regardless, my preference is that the first post of this thread ALWAYS have the manifest of future launches.
There is another thread for what has been launched.  That is the appropriate place for historical records and statistics.
If someone needs more records than what is in the first post here they can go there.   
It is something to look forward to eagerly when keeping the last 12 months of launches at the top of the manifest consumes too much space. ;D 
Then you should pick a number and throw the oldest one out whenever a new one is added. 
The current number seems fine to me.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 12/21/2016 04:13 am
Keep the last 8 or 10 launches above the line and remove them one by one as new launches are completed. No need to re-start at the beginning of a new year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/21/2016 01:33 pm
OK, I sense perhaps keeping the manifest rolling, then on 1-17-2017, the JSON-3 mission would "roll off", and we'd keep a one year history in the table along with whatever we know of the future.

Sound OK?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 12/23/2016 10:15 pm
This Tronador project has always moved slowly. And the present government seems to have limited the funds available for the local space related activities.
http://argentinaenelespacio.blogspot.com.ar/2016/12/menor-inversion-en-el-sector-espacial.html#more (http://argentinaenelespacio.blogspot.com.ar/2016/12/menor-inversion-en-el-sector-espacial.html#more)

From the article...
Quote
CONAE is currently developing SAR missions SAOCOM-1A and 1B with launch dates for 2017 and 2019, ...

Looks like SAOCOM-1A hasn't slipped lately, 1B slipped a little.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/28/2016 01:49 pm
NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2016-01-17  F9(19)       JRTI        Jason-3 [1]                   LEO  553     LC4E
2016-03-04  F9(22)       OCISLY      SES-9 [2]                     GTO  5300    LC40
2016-04-08  F9(23)       OCISLY      Dragon (CRS-8) [3]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-05-06  F9(24)       OCISLY      JCSAT-14  [4]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-05-27  F9(25)       OCISLY      Thaicom 8 [5]                 GTO  3100    LC40
2016-06-15  F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B [6] &     GTO  1960    LC40
                                     ABS-2A [6]                         2240
2016-07-18  F9(27)       RTLS        Dragon (CRS-9) [7]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-08-14  F9(28)       OCISLY      JCSAT-16 [8]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-09-03  F9(29)       PAD         AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40


[1] Json-3 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39140.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29457.0#lastPost)
[2] SES-9 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39348.0#lasbPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39348.0#lastPost)
[3] CRS-8 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39537.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39350.0#lastPost) / Return (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40274.0#lastPost)
[4] JCSAT-14 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39843.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33778.0#lastPost) / Pre-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/03/spacex-prepares-two-missions-mcgregor/) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/05/falcon-9-jcsat-14-launch/)
[5] Thaicom-8 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40182.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40256.0) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/05/falcon-9-thaicom-8-launch/)
[6] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40395.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.0#lastPost) / Pre-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-readies-falcon-9-reuse-testing/) / Post-Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/spacex-falcon-9-dual-satellite-launch/)
[7] CRS-9 Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40577.0#lastPost) / Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40310.0#lastPost) / Static Fire Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/07/spacex-static-fire-falcon-9-rocket-crs-9-launch/) / Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/07/spacex-falcon-9-crs-9-dragon-launch/) / Return (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40977.0#lastPost)
[8] JCSAT-16 Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40769.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40373.0#lastPost) / Pre-launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/08/spacex-static-fire-test-jcsat-16s-falcon-9/) / Launch Article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/08/spacex-second-jcsat-launch-via-falcon-9/)
[9] AMOS-6 Updates (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40868.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30981.0#lastPost) 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 12/28/2016 01:57 pm
Posted 2016 for retrospective as requested by some.  This information will not be pulled out of the current manifest!  Current manifest will age until 1 year or 10 launches, whichever comes first.

I'll probably keep a separate file for 2017 as things roll off so the full year snapshot can be presented about a year from now.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/02/2017 03:08 pm
Tweet from Matt Desch (https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/815947379883044864):
Quote
Our date is now public. Next Sunday morning, Jan 8 at 10:28:07 pst. Iridium NEXT launch #1 flies!
So that should be 18:28:07 UTC
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Star One on 01/02/2017 08:23 pm
Quote
Jeff Foust – ‏@jeff_foust
At #ExoPAG mtg, NASA’s Martin Still says TESS exoplanet mission on track, but Dec. launch on F9 could slip due to SpaceX schedule issues.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/816015605748867073
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/02/2017 08:27 pm
They really have 33 launches scheduled for 2017?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 01/02/2017 08:31 pm
They really have 33 launches scheduled for 2017?

Scheduled isn't the right word. There are 33 launches that were supposed to launch in 2017 or before when the contract was signed or a recent update.

I'd be curious to know what the internal number SpaceX is shooting for. My guess (since SpaceX sets aspirational goals) is something like 25.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/03/2017 09:01 pm
Latest preliminary placeholder is now January 26 per L2 KSC schedule update. The above still applies.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/04/2017 10:45 pm
Latest preliminary placeholder is now January 26 per L2 KSC schedule update. The above still applies.

Looking like NET

2017-01-09  F9(30)       JRTI        Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-01-26  F9           OCISLY      Echostar 23 [11]                  GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-02-08  F9            RTLS        Dragon (CRS-10)  [16]          LEO   10000   LC39A
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 01/06/2017 04:57 pm
How far can Echostar get pushed before the CRS-10 date is impacted?  Is there a priority between these two payloads?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/06/2017 05:20 pm
How far can Echostar get pushed before the CRS-10 date is impacted?  Is there a priority between these two payloads?

I would expect NASA to let Echostar go first (first launch from a new pad :) ).  I doubt the CRS-10 date is really firm yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/06/2017 06:09 pm
Tweet from NASA_TESS (https://twitter.com/NASA_TESS/status/817415259753508866)
Quote
After review of the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle certification schedule & anomaly recovery @NASA_TESS launch date has moved to NET 3/20/18
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/06/2017 09:53 pm
They really have 33 launches scheduled for 2017?

Tweet from NASA_TESS (https://twitter.com/NASA_TESS/status/817415259753508866)
Quote
After review of the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle certification schedule & anomaly recovery @NASA_TESS launch date has moved to NET 3/20/18

Now it's a mere 31.
That's one every 12 days. 
If Iridium NEXT launches next Thursday they will be on pace.   8)

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 01/11/2017 12:16 am
Another core sighting at Hawthorne  (https://imgur.com/gallery/iI3RH)curtsey of reddit user MasturGrunt.

The SES-10 refurbished core? Although as far I as I know there was never a report of it going back to Hawthorne.

Otherwise, it must be the the flight after that. Bulgariasat, Koreasat, or Inmarsat look to be next after SES-10.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/11/2017 12:28 am
Another core sighting at Hawthorne  (https://imgur.com/gallery/iI3RH)curtsey of reddit user MasturGrunt.

The SES-10 refurbished core? Although as far I as I know there was never a report of it going back to Hawthorne.

Otherwise, it must be the the flight after that. Bulgariasat, Koreasat, or Inmarsat look to be next after SES-10.

We really have no idea what the flight order will be after CRS-10 and SES-10.  Could also be Formosat/SHERPA, NROL.  Inmarsat 5-F4 and SES-11 have been announced as first half of 2017, so I'm kinda assuming they'd be in the second quarter.  It will probably be a couple more months before we have much idea what's going on with their schedule.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 01/11/2017 12:32 am
I took a look at Salo's US Launch Schedule and he has a recent date for CRS-11 as NET March 7. If that holds, that would seem to be the next flight if SES-10 is late February.

Still pretty impressive to see a booster going for testing when there is 4 launches (Iridium, Echostar, CRS-10, and SES-10) that seemingly have first stage cores already tested.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/11/2017 03:52 pm
I took a look at Salo's US Launch Schedule and he has a recent date for CRS-11 as NET March 7.
If that holds, that would seem to be the next flight if SES-10 is late February.
(snip)

CRS/SpX-11 is extremely unlikely to fly on March 7.  Given the current target date of Feb 8 for SpX-10, its planned duration at the ISS would overlap with an SpX-11 launched on that date.  That target date is only four weeks from today, and it's supposed to be the second flight from LC-39A, which has yet to see any rocket erected on it.
Then there is the berthing of OA-7, which was supposed to happen in the same early March timeframe.
That says that this booster is probably for some other missions.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Johnnyhinbos on 01/11/2017 09:28 pm
For what it's worth, tweet from Robin Seemangal quoting SpaceX:

Quote
SpaceX: We'll launch every two weeks in 2017
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170111/1c519f3438f3aad17977cc52b03b91d5.png)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dglow on 01/12/2017 12:18 am
According to Robin this info was relayed to him "as background" during a recent interview with SpaceX. Mentioning here because this tweet, and a second one citing SpaceX, have since been deleted.

Publishing/tweeting/conveying info shared 'on background' is generally bad form. That said, if SX expressed this it represents big confidence on their part. Thank you, Johnnyhinbos, for grabbing a screencap while this was up.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/12/2017 12:31 am
That's their plan. They've got over 30 launches on the manifest right now. If they do just half that many, they're doing fantastic.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/12/2017 07:29 pm
 "as many as" 32 launches planned from Cape Canaveral in 2017 (http://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2017/01/10/air-force-expects-busy-year-launches-cape-canaveral/96341178/)

That would be 6 Atlas V, 1 Delta IV, and  1 Minotaur IV, so the remaining 24 go to SpaceX.

This even more than the 22 East coast launches on starhawk92's manifest above. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/13/2017 08:42 am
Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  5m5 minutes ago
Thales: Bangladesh Bangabandhu Ku-/C-band sat CDR OK, payload/platform mating in March. Thales-ordered SpaceX launch Dec 2017 [tight sched].

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/819840192328638465 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/819840192328638465)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 01/13/2017 10:32 am
"as many as" 32 launches planned from Cape Canaveral in 2017 (http://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2017/01/10/air-force-expects-busy-year-launches-cape-canaveral/96341178/)

That would be 6 Atlas V, 1 Delta IV, and  1 Minotaur IV, so the remaining 24 go to SpaceX.

This even more than the 22 East coast launches on starhawk92's manifest above. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569)

well, right now I see eight Atlas V launches from Cape:

Jan 19, 2017 -- SBIRS GEO-3 -- Atlas V 401
Mar 16, 2017 -- Cygnus OA-7 -- Atlas V 401
May 04, 2017 -- AEHF-4 -- Atlas V 531
Aug 03, 2017 -- TDRS-M -- Atlas V 401
Aug 31, 2017 -- NROL-52 (Quasar) -- Atlas V 421
Nov 09, 2017 -- SBIRS GEO-4 -- Atlas V 411
Dec 07, 2017 -- AFSPC-11 -- Atlas V 551
2H xx 2017 -- AFSPC-7 -- Atlas V xxx

which makes arithmetic a little better :)
But it does not help with *realistics*... Twenty two is still way too high.

Another possible thing - this general may have included SUB-orbital launches in this "as many as" 32 launches planned. If so, the total number for SpaceX launches from CC goes down to some 16-17...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: vapour_nudge on 01/13/2017 11:07 am
Maybe two Delta IV too. I'd feel more comfortable if they left the FH to last because if they suffer a launch mishap they'd run the risk of needing to rebuild yet another pad. I'm suggesting a kind of risk reduction by leaving it to last as they might have the other pad repaired by then. Of course, if they suffer another failure they'd have to stand down again anyway

Here's hoping it goes smoothly for them
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/13/2017 11:14 am
There is a poll for the number of Spacex launches this year, that would be a more appropriate place to put our guesses.  This thread is for discussion of what flights should be listed on the manifest and what publicly known information we have on when they are scheduled to launch. Whether SpaceX will achieve the schedule is discussed in plenty of other threads.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/13/2017 05:05 pm
Think of the estimate for SpaceX east coast launces this way in 2016 there was 23 launches and SpaceX did only 8 of them. If SpaceX is responsible for the increase to 32 over that done in 2016 that is only 17 launches. But now add the 6 to 8 launches from VAFB and that is 23 to 25. So 2 a month is an accurate view of the average.

Now can SpaceX meet that kind of launch rate?

SpaceX can manufacture cores at a rate of at least 18 /yr. Now add 4 or 5 cores manufactured since Sept 1 and that is a total for 2017 of 22 or 23. The main thing to look at is the number of upper stages. If for every FH launched SpaceX does 2 reuse launches then the total launches is still controlled by the number of US manufactured. Making the max possible for launches including FH and reused 1st stage launches for 2017 at 22 or 23.

If the 1st stage reuse program is successful (technically and financially), then the manufacture program in 2018 can start shifting to produce 2 or more US for each 1st stage that it would have produced. If just 3 1st stages are switched to producing US then the rate is 15 complete cores and 9 more extra US. This is enough for 24 launches in 2018 of 15 new booster launches and 9 reused booster launches.

So to find the max launch capability for a year look to the manufacture rate of the US for a year.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/13/2017 09:45 pm
There is a poll for the number of Spacex launches this year, that would be a more appropriate place to put our guesses.  This thread is for discussion of what flights should be listed on the manifest and what publicly known information we have on when they are scheduled to launch. Whether SpaceX will achieve the schedule is discussed in plenty of other threads.

I agree with you, and had not intended to start a discussion.  Certainly not a repeat of the discussion in the Launch Poll where everyone guesses for this years total.  I was just comparing the statement from CCAFS to our manifest as some kind of supporting evidence.  This says we don't have to start moving our posted launch dates out beyond 2017.

Back to the proper subject, NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center's Raven team has just sent out invitations to team members to view the launch (and first stage landing!) of SpX-10 from the Banana River campground on February 8.  Confidence is low that the launch will happen on that day, or even close, but people are still preparing for it. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 01/13/2017 10:13 pm
Disclaimer: I do not intend to start another round of discussion about number of SpaceX flights this year and probabilities...
However:
This WSJ article
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455
particularly, the third figure in it - shows that SpaceX plan 27 launches this year.
Accordingly to the article this number is not an author's estimate but reflects current plans of the company.

Therefore it seems to me it should be reflected here in this thread.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: bulkmail on 01/13/2017 11:38 pm
A refresh of the commercial launches table.
2014: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.msg1346716#msg1346716
2015: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34603.msg1472467#msg1472467
2016:
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/14/2017 05:50 am
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast (https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/cbs-this-morning/id1157631148?mt=2&i=1000379922655), she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.

Edit: I should have added she then said "and then increase may be 50% annually"
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Rik ISS-fan on 01/14/2017 04:06 pm
The table is misleading with the ariane numbers. Ariane 5 can only launch 8x annually, the restricting factor is the amount of solid boosters they can produce.
I think, the amount of satellites planned is listed in the table. As are the launches executed. Arianespace launched 9 comsats in 2016, if I'm not mistaken.
SpaceX also has done a tandem comsat launch in the past.
Comparing planned amount of satellites, with executed amount of launches, is an apples to oranges comparison.!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 01/14/2017 05:19 pm
Disclaimer: I do not intend to start another round of discussion about number of SpaceX flights this year and probabilities...
However:
This WSJ article
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455
particularly, the third figure in it - shows that SpaceX plan 27 launches this year.
Accordingly to the article this number is not an author's estimate but reflects current plans of the company.

Therefore it seems to me it should be reflected here in this thread.
The chart is based on company data from early 2016, so it does not necessarily represent their current plans. Still relevant to see in this thread, even if it is a year old at this point.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/14/2017 06:47 pm
With a successful launch and landing time to move the Iridium Next Flt 1 to above the line.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 01/16/2017 09:27 am
According to Wikipedia the Sentinel Mission will launch on a F9 in 2019:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope
https://b612foundation.org/sentinel/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/16/2017 12:46 pm
According to Wikipedia the Sentinel Mission will launch on a F9 in 2019:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope
https://b612foundation.org/sentinel/

Has anyone seen news about B612 actually coming up with money to build that project? I don't think it belongs on the manifest yet.

Edit: Bringing things like this to our attention on the manifest thread is good if you see a reference to a Falcon mission.  We just may not want to actually list it on the manifest if it doesn't seem to be a firm contract.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 01/16/2017 01:49 pm
Congratulations to SpaceX on the first Iridium mission.  Those with insight -- do we have the project months for the rest of the constellation correct at this time?

Looking forward to SES riding a used core soon!  Maybe before the quarter is over?

Also, a reminder that this thread is for updates and discussion of manifest information -- this is not the thread for speculation, counting, or standing in awe of the current backlog.  Fortunately, there are threads in other sections of NSF for those discussions!

Thanks again to all who share the knowledge to keep this manifest as accurate as possible!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deltaV on 01/16/2017 05:09 pm
2020-05     TBD                      Red Dragon-2 (Mars Surface)
2020-06     TBD                      Red Dragon-3 (Mars Surface)
2022-08     TBD                      Interplanetary Transport System (ITS)
2024-09     TBD                      Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)
2026-11     TBD                      Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)
2029-01     TBD                      Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)

I'm surprised SpaceX isn't ending the Red Dragon program once ITS is operational. What's the source for the existence of red dragon missions 2-7?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: neoforce on 01/16/2017 05:25 pm
Do we have an answer to reconcile the Core number (29) on the chart being for AMOS vs the SpaceX instagram picture showing Iridium next was core number 29? 


NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----

2016-09-03  F9(29)       PAD         AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40
2017-01-14  F9(30)       JRTI        Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E



Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 01/16/2017 05:38 pm
Do we have an answer to reconcile the Core number (29) on the chart being for AMOS vs the SpaceX instagram picture showing Iridium next was core number 29? 


NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----

2016-09-03  F9(29)       PAD         AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40
2017-01-14  F9(30)       JRTI        Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E



Those are flight numbers in the chart, not first stage serial numbers.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: toruonu on 01/16/2017 06:27 pm
Those are flight numbers in the chart, not first stage serial numbers.

Could have fooled me considering that it says BOOST i.e. booster and then in parentheses Core implying the core # to me. Not flight #
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: neoforce on 01/16/2017 06:30 pm
Those are flight numbers in the chart, not first stage serial numbers.

Could have fooled me considering that it says BOOST i.e. booster and then in parentheses Core implying the core # to me. Not flight #

I agree. Look at the top of the chart:


NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2016-01-17  F9(19)       JRTI        Jason-3 [1]                   LEO  553     LC4E
2016-03-04  F9(22)       OCISLY      SES-9 [2]                     GTO  5300    LC40


Jason 3 was flight 21, but on Core 19.  They were juggling cores around the time of the CRS7 failure

And the upcoming SES flight is listed as (23-1)

Pretty sure these are core numbers.  Hence my question about if 30 is correct for the latest flight, now that SpaceX is putting big numbers on the stages.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 01/16/2017 06:33 pm
The answer is pretty simple. The top thread thought it was tracking core numbers, but the information used was incorrect. In reality it was tracking mission numbers.

Before SpaceX started painting the core number on the first stage booster it was hard to determine what each core number was. They often got switched around such that mission number and core serial number didn't align. Add in addition cores made for other purposes (grasshopper etc.) and the mission and core serial number likely often wouldn't line up anyway.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/16/2017 06:37 pm
There are two different sets of numbers for boosters.  SpaceX has been using booster id numbers in public that were based on the flight, while internally they were using serial numbers (and the two numbers are quite different).  We only have the serial numbers for a small number of the boosters, mostly recent ones.  That is why the manifest table has been using the publicly known numbers based on the (first) flight of the booster.  For all of the people just now paying attention to Falcon flight numbers it's nice that you're interested but there are several years of history you're ignoring when you just start griping about the table not matching a number you saw painted on the last booster.  If we keep getting serial numbers on every flight then starhawk92 will probably switch over to using them, since the older flights without serial numbers will be archived out of the manifest table anyway.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 01/16/2017 06:39 pm
Pretty sure these are core numbers.

They're not, they're the F9-XX numbers, which are not tied to any particular first stages.

Jason 3 was flight 21, but on Core 19.

We have no idea what serial number Jason-3's first stage was. Jason-3 was Falcon 9 Flight 21 (sequential). However SpaceX gives all their missions their own flight numbers (F9-XX), and occasionally they launch out of order. That is what is being listed in the table under BOOST.

And the upcoming SES flight is listed as (23-1)

That's starhawk's way of tracking reflights through these SpaceX mission numbers. It'll be confusing since SES-10 will be F9-23-1 and F9-34 (or something), however it's the only way to track all of SpaceX's reflights without serial numbers.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: neoforce on 01/16/2017 07:06 pm
All this talk about core numbers that i started a few posts ago...

I missed the fact that earlier today Starhawk was already thinking of this, having a discussion over in the SpaceX Reusuable Rockets Section about recovery of the current core, starting here:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42052.msg1630964#msg1630964

Since he does so much work on the manifest in post one of this thread, I'll be happy to leave the decision on how to manage this up to him.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: bulkmail on 01/16/2017 10:43 pm
2020-05     TBD                      Red Dragon-2 (Mars Surface)
2020-06     TBD                      Red Dragon-3 (Mars Surface)
2022-08     TBD                      Interplanetary Transport System (ITS)
2024-09     TBD                      Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)
2026-11     TBD                      Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)
2029-01     TBD                      Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)

I'm surprised SpaceX isn't ending the Red Dragon program once ITS is operational. What's the source for the existence of red dragon missions 2-7?

Red Dragon(s) in 2020 - http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf (page47) - albeit not specifying one or two.
But in the same presentation it looks like from 2022 onwards it's only ITS. So, what's the source for Red Dragon 5-7? Maybe the inevitable delay of ITS...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: bulkmail on 01/16/2017 11:05 pm
2017-08     F9                       CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)
2017-11     F9           RTLS        CCTCAP DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)                   
2018-05     F9           RTLS        CCTCAP DM2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)

In-flight abort is CCiCap, not CCtCap?
Also, isn't there a separate forum thread for the In-flight abort? Currently all three link to the thread about DM1.
Also, isn't the order DM1, then In-flight abort (reusing DM1 Dragon), then DM2?

At US launch manifest (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1628552#msg1628552) there are listed 12 "Boeing/SpaceX" crew missions to ISS (after the two demos of each company) - and we now they are 6 Boeing and 6 SpaceX. Two per year from 2019H2 to 2024H1. So, I think it's safe to assume (best guess) that they will be taking turns and as SpaceX demo is first, then is Boeing, then SpaceX is first for normal mission, then Boeing, etc.?
Also there are listed the CRS2 flights as "Dragon/Cygnus/DreamChaser". The first is right after the last Dragon CRS1 and the DreamChaser demo, so it's safe to assume that is Cygnus, then SpaceX, then first DreamChaser nomal mission, then taking turns (if number of flights is the same for each of the three).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 01/17/2017 12:21 am
Peter B. de Selding, spaceintelreport:
https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iridium-next-launch
Quote
“The way I look at it, even if they only get 10 launches off I think I have a good shot at getting my five” because of the less-crowded manifest at Vandenberg, Desch said. “We have 20 or more satellites in the factory and ready — enough for two launches. We are really only gated now by the rockets.”

With the sense of urgency now much reduced, Iridium can turn its attention to whether the 60-day periods between the second and seven launch might be reduced.

“Even with all the activities that they [Thales Alenia Space] have to do, there is some margin” in the schedule, Desch said. “There is no formal agreement on this but it’s possible that launches three and four could occur with less than 60 days’ spacing, say around 45 days.”
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/17/2017 08:28 pm
A couple of items.

The Iridium launch was booster serial number 1029 which probably means AMOS 6 was actually #1030. We are going to have to going forward track boosters by their labeled serial # and not the first flight number since the order of serial number to flight number could be quite different due to 2 very active pads where launch order could move back and forth due to slips.

Also not very likely to have more than 2 flights in Feb: CRS and SES-10. Formosat/SHERPA is not yet shipped so not likely to be in Feb. So at most keep those three listed for -02 and move the rest to -03.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 01/17/2017 08:40 pm
A couple of items.

The Iridium launch was booster serial number 1029 which probably means AMOS 6 was actually #1030. We are going to have to going forward track boosters by their labeled serial # and not the first flight number since the order of serial number to flight number could be quite different due to 2 very active pads where launch order could move back and forth due to slips.

Also not very likely to have more than 2 flights in Feb: CRS and SES-10. Formosat/SHERPA is not yet shipped so not likely to be in Feb. So at most keep those three listed for -02 and move the rest to -03.
Why would you assume AMOS 6 was B1030? Check out the reddit list of known cores serial numbers. For some reason, probably a change in naming convention at some point, core numbers had typically been 2 behind flight numbers. They are now 1 behind, most likely due to a FH test article.

I think it is a little premature to move February flights based on our guesswork, especially because we don't even know for sure if CRS-10 is next up after EchoStar, let alone the actual planned flight order after that.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/17/2017 09:03 pm
A couple of items.

The Iridium launch was booster serial number 1029 which probably means AMOS 6 was actually #1030. We are going to have to going forward track boosters by their labeled serial # and not the first flight number since the order of serial number to flight number could be quite different due to 2 very active pads where launch order could move back and forth due to slips.

Also not very likely to have more than 2 flights in Feb: CRS and SES-10. Formosat/SHERPA is not yet shipped so not likely to be in Feb. So at most keep those three listed for -02 and move the rest to -03.
Why would you assume AMOS 6 was B1030? Check out the reddit list of known cores serial numbers. For some reason, probably a change in naming convention at some point, core numbers had typically been 2 behind flight numbers. They are now 1 behind, most likely due to a FH test article.

I think it is a little premature to move February flights based on our guesswork, especially because we don't even know for sure if CRS-10 is next up after EchoStar, let alone the actual planned flight order after that.
The month of launch is not a big deal but the tracking of boosters by serial # and not flight is. As more and more boosters are reused it will become more and more difficult to track which one was from from which flight without using the the tail numbers. So translating the tail number to when it first flew is an excess action and should be short circuited to just tracking the actual tail number.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 01/17/2017 09:19 pm
A couple of items.

The Iridium launch was booster serial number 1029 which probably means AMOS 6 was actually #1030. We are going to have to going forward track boosters by their labeled serial # and not the first flight number since the order of serial number to flight number could be quite different due to 2 very active pads where launch order could move back and forth due to slips.

Also not very likely to have more than 2 flights in Feb: CRS and SES-10. Formosat/SHERPA is not yet shipped so not likely to be in Feb. So at most keep those three listed for -02 and move the rest to -03.
Why would you assume AMOS 6 was B1030? Check out the reddit list of known cores serial numbers. For some reason, probably a change in naming convention at some point, core numbers had typically been 2 behind flight numbers. They are now 1 behind, most likely due to a FH test article.

I think it is a little premature to move February flights based on our guesswork, especially because we don't even know for sure if CRS-10 is next up after EchoStar, let alone the actual planned flight order after that.
The month of launch is not a big deal but the tracking of boosters by serial # and not flight is. As more and more boosters are reused it will become more and more difficult to track which one was from from which flight without using the the tail numbers. So translating the tail number to when it first flew is an excess action and should be short circuited to just tracking the actual tail number.

Right, tracking with serial numbers is great going forwards. But we can't go back and assume serial numbers for past boosters. Until a good number of the old flights get bumped out of the manifest table, I think it'd be best to stick with the current system.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 01/18/2017 08:21 pm
If someone wants to go to Reddit and prove which flight numbers boosted which craft, I'm all ears to putting the information in the charts.  Will the numbers be repainted after each re-entry?

Until then, I feel we can track what we are looking (reuse) with the current setup.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: DOCinCT on 01/19/2017 01:09 pm
2020-05     TBD                      Red Dragon-2 (Mars Surface)
2020-06     TBD                      Red Dragon-3 (Mars Surface)
2022-08     TBD                      Interplanetary Transport System (ITS)
2024-09     TBD                      Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)
2026-11     TBD                      Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)
2029-01     TBD                      Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)

I'm surprised SpaceX isn't ending the Red Dragon program once ITS is operational. What's the source for the existence of red dragon missions 2-7?

Red Dragon(s) in 2020 - http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf (page47) - albeit not specifying one or two.
But in the same presentation it looks like from 2022 onwards it's only ITS. So, what's the source for Red Dragon 5-7? Maybe the inevitable delay of ITS...
If we go by the presentation that Elon gave, not just the PDF, then "2026 if things go really well" for first manned mission.  This could be a misstatement as the windows are 2024 and 2027.
He did say in the Tech Crunch conference call "the goal is 2024, but that plan is definitely not etched in stone."
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 01/19/2017 06:34 pm
Reflight Returns!!  The SES-10 mission thread has links saying we may get our first reflight of an F9 on Feb 22!!

Moved everything but Formosat et. al. to NET 2017-03 (in case they do another launch from Vandenberg in February) as the SES-10 announcement pretty much sews up the February plans.

Also, the Jason-3 mission has rolled off the manifest since it has been a year, have a look back:
Json-3 Updates (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39140.0#lastPost) / Discussion (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29457.0#lastPost)
 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: kevin-rf on 01/19/2017 06:57 pm
You spelled Jason-3 as Json-3, third to last word.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/20/2017 02:53 am
Updates needed in manifest table...

First stage Target:
  Formosat 5/SHERPA is unknown at this point
  Iridium NEXT should probably all be JRTI unless we hear different from SpaceX.  We don't know if it could RTLS.
  Inmarsat 5 F4 is not RTLS, either OCISLY or expendable
  NROL-76 is unknown unless someone figured out the payload
  Bangabandhu should be OCISLY
 
Need links to discussion thread:
  Koreasat 5A http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40947.0)
  Inmarsat 5 F4 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)
  Intelsat 35e https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41426.0)
  PSN-6 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40516.0)
  STP-2 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30544.0)
  SWOT https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)
 
 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/20/2017 05:16 pm
2017-08     F9                       CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)
2017-11     F9           RTLS        CCTCAP DM1 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)                   
2018-05     F9           RTLS        CCTCAP DM2 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36966.0)

In-flight abort is CCiCap, not CCtCap?
Also, isn't there a separate forum thread for the In-flight abort? Currently all three link to the thread about DM1.
Also, isn't the order DM1, then In-flight abort (reusing DM1 Dragon), then DM2?

You are correct, the in-flight abort is CCiCap, and should be after DM1.

We don't have separate threads for in-flight abort or DM2 yet, and aren't really using the DM1 mission thread right now.  Most of the CCTCap and Dragon 2 discussion is going on in these threads:
   Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35717.0)
   SpaceX Dragon 2 Updates and Discussion - Thread 2 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41016.0)
and also
   Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.0)
   SpaceX CCtCAP Milestones (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39832.0)

At US launch manifest (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1628552#msg1628552) there are listed 12 "Boeing/SpaceX" crew missions to ISS (after the two demos of each company) - and we now they are 6 Boeing and 6 SpaceX. Two per year from 2019H2 to 2024H1. So, I think it's safe to assume (best guess) that they will be taking turns and as SpaceX demo is first, then is Boeing, then SpaceX is first for normal mission, then Boeing, etc.?
Also there are listed the CRS2 flights as "Dragon/Cygnus/DreamChaser". The first is right after the last Dragon CRS1 and the DreamChaser demo, so it's safe to assume that is Cygnus, then SpaceX, then first DreamChaser nomal mission, then taking turns (if number of flights is the same for each of the three).

It's not safe to assume anything about the timing or order of CCtCap or CRS-2 flights yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/20/2017 06:25 pm
Couple more updates for the manifest:

Inmarsat 5 F4 mass should be 6100kg

Iridium Flight 2 Discussion thread is here http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: John Alan on 01/21/2017 11:22 pm
Ecostar 23 stage 1 is to be expended... No attempt to have OCISLY catch it... is now planned...  :P

Sources...
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.msg1633626#msg1633626 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.msg1633626#msg1633626)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/822926184719609856 (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/822926184719609856)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 01/23/2017 01:17 pm
What would be the proper term for the BOOST column?  "EXPEND"?  "SPLASH"?  ;)

Update coming later today with a bunch of gongora-goodies.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 01/23/2017 01:20 pm
What would be the proper term for the BOOST column?  "EXPEND"?  "SPLASH"?  ;)

Update coming later today with a bunch of gongora-goodies.

ATLANTIC
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Johnnyhinbos on 01/23/2017 01:31 pm
WASTED
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/23/2017 01:59 pm
WASTED
That goes well with my tag line but a proper term might be "ditch" as in what the pilot with an airplane does if he can't make it back to land while over water.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 01/23/2017 02:34 pm
What would be the proper term for the BOOST column?  "EXPEND"?  "SPLASH"?  ;)

Update coming later today with a bunch of gongora-goodies.

Don't you mean the "1S Tgt" column? The "BOOST" column should list the booster/flight number as always.

IMO "1S Tgt" should be "NONE" or "N/A", since the 1st stage isn't targeting anything.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: CraigLieb on 01/23/2017 02:41 pm
What would be the proper term for the BOOST column?  "EXPEND"?  "SPLASH"?  ;)

Update coming later today with a bunch of gongora-goodies.

Fish habitat module?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Johnnyhinbos on 01/23/2017 02:50 pm
What would be the proper term for the BOOST column?  "EXPEND"?  "SPLASH"?  ;)

Update coming later today with a bunch of gongora-goodies.

Fish habitat module?
(The official term is FAD - Fish Aggregation Device)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/23/2017 02:58 pm
Please keep this thread somewhat on topic.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/25/2017 10:10 pm
Cross posting

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/824371954559836160 (https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/824371954559836160)
Quote
In talk on COSMIC-2, NOAA says Falcon Heavy demo launch scheduled for 2nd Q; STP-2 mission (with COSMIC-2) planned for Sept. 30. #AMS2017
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 01/26/2017 12:45 pm
Bumped Echostar as per mission thread; clearly CRS-10 and the reflight core under SES-10 are going to be impacted.  Have not moved CRS-10 as I have not seen a formal revision date, and I wonder if CRS-10 might "preempt" Echostar since it's got supplies for the manned ISS?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: BrianNH on 01/26/2017 12:53 pm
EXPEND would be better that DITCH IMO
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/26/2017 02:03 pm
Bumped Echostar as per mission thread; clearly CRS-10 and the reflight core under SES-10 are going to be impacted.  Have not moved CRS-10 as I have not seen a formal revision date, and I wonder if CRS-10 might "preempt" Echostar since it's got supplies for the manned ISS?

SpX-10 is officially NET 2/15 and it will not bump Echostar to be the first from LC-39A according to statements from NASA people. The ISS is in good shape from a supply standpoint according to the ISS threads.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/28/2017 09:28 pm
Bumped Echostar as per mission thread; clearly CRS-10 and the reflight core under SES-10 are going to be impacted.  Have not moved CRS-10 as I have not seen a formal revision date, and I wonder if CRS-10 might "preempt" Echostar since it's got supplies for the manned ISS?

Guess that really was a possibility.  (I assumed going first from the pad would be seen as higher risk by NASA.)

Yes - and per the above (which is an update as it's very relevant) - there's a growing word (as in people seeing decision notes, so this is getting rather real) that Dragon has pulled rank to go first. Nobody puts baby in the corner!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: soltasto on 01/28/2017 11:53 pm
SpaceX submitted three new applications to the FCC, two regarding the F9-35 launch (Where did 34 go?) and one regarding F9 and FH systems tests at MCGregor.


F9-35 GTO launch: FCC link (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=75823&RequestTimeout=1000)

This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for F9-35, a commercial GTO launch from Complex 39a, Kennedy Space Center. Application includes sub-orbital first stage, and orbital second stage. Trajectory data to be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. All downrange Earth stations are receive-only. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.


F9-35 ASDS recovery: FCC link (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=75825&RequestTimeout=1000)

This STA covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation, following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request is limited to the TC uplink, transmitting from an offshore boat/autonomous drone ship and/or onshore station at CCAFS. This includes pre-launch check-out operations at Port Canaveral and/or CCAFS as pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA. The requested expiration date is 6 months following the grant date or upon completion of the experimental recovery operation, whichever occurs first.

Landing coordinates: North  28  13  48   West  73  40  51 (https://www.google.it/maps/place/28%C2%B013'48.0%22N+73%C2%B040'51.0%22W/@28.6382035,-78.7325055,722091m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d28.23!4d-73.6808333?hl=it&authuser=0)


F9 & FH LV systems test: FCC link (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=75806&RequestTimeout=1000)

This STA is required for testing of the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle systems from the SpaceX Rocket Development and Test Facility in McGregor, Texas.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/29/2017 12:04 am
SpaceX submitted three new applications to the FCC, two regarding the F9-35 launch (Where did 34 go?) and one regarding F9 and FH systems tests at MCGregor...

Maybe F9-34 will be Formosat-5/SHERPA?  If they're sending out ASDS it implies that F9-35 is not Inmarsat 5 F4, which I though would be next in line.  Still several options to choose from such as Koreasat 5A (this might be at the top of the list), Bulgariasat 1.

The McGregor application is very similar to one they recently did for Hawthorne.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/29/2017 01:07 am
SpaceX submitted three new applications to the FCC, two regarding the F9-35 launch (Where did 34 go?) and one regarding F9 and FH systems tests at MCGregor...

Maybe F9-34 will be Formosat-5/SHERPA?  If they're sending out ASDS it implies that F9-35 is not Inmarsat 5 F4, which I though would be next in line.  Still several options to choose from such as Koreasat 5A (this might be at the top of the list), Bulgariasat 1.

The McGregor application is very similar to one they recently did for Hawthorne.

On Reddit, Soltasto mentioned the NRO launch as a possibility for F9-34, and that could very well be the case if it has schedule priority over the commsats.  It looks like ULA doesn't get FCC permits for their national security launches, so SpaceX probably wouldn't need to either.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/29/2017 12:55 pm
Quote
Bautz: two astrophysics payloads, NICER and ISS-CREAM, going to ISS on SpX-11 and 12 in April & June (if SpX-10 launches in Feb…) #apsapril

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/825702745659150336 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/825702745659150336)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 01/29/2017 01:52 pm
Quote
Bautz: two astrophysics payloads, NICER and ISS-CREAM, going to ISS on SpX-11 and 12 in April & June (if SpX-10 launches in Feb…) #apsapril

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/825702745659150336 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/825702745659150336)

A full listing and discussion of external payloads is over in L2. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=29090.msg912016#msg912016)
The months stated above are compatible with the dates listed there.
And NASA is "pulling rank" to keep the SpX-10 launch in the second half of February.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deruch on 01/31/2017 02:46 am
It looks like ULA doesn't get FCC permits for their national security launches, so SpaceX probably wouldn't need to either.
Correct.  SpaceX launches for NASA LSP or contracted by the Air Force (non-commercial) don't need STAs from the FCC as they get ceded authority from those organizations directly for their respective missions.  Neither do they need FAA licensing.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/31/2017 12:21 pm
Quote
@IridiumComm: We confirm 8th @SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, for 1H 2018: 5 IRDM Next sats+2 NASA/German science sats.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/826414804537597953 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/826414804537597953)

Written up here: https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iridium (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iridium)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 01/31/2017 02:30 pm
Presser (and for the relevant launch thread when we have it up).

Iridium Adds Eighth Launch with SpaceX for Satellite Rideshare with NASA/GFZ

Iridium strikes deal with GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences to launch five additional spare Iridium NEXT satellites as well as NASA/GFZ’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-on (GRACE-FO) Mission

MCLEAN, Va., January 31, 2017 – Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) announced today that it has contracted with SpaceX for an eighth Falcon 9 launch. Along for the ride are the twin-satellites of the NASA/GFZ Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, which will be deployed into a separate low-Earth orbit, marking the first rideshare deal for Iridium. An agreement of this kind is economical for all parties, and affords Iridium the ability to launch five additional satellites for its next-generation global satellite network.   The rideshare is anticipated to launch out of Vandenberg Air Force Base in California by early 2018.

“This is a very smart way to get additional Iridium NEXT satellites into orbit,” said Matt Desch, chief executive officer at Iridium. “This launch provides added resiliency to our network for not much more than we had planned originally to launch 72 satellites, including two with Kosmotras.”  Desch continued, “We are pleased to be sharing a rocket with NASA and GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences for this additional SpaceX launch, and GFZ has been a great business partner throughout this process.”

Not only is this launch a rare opportunity to ride with NASA, but it also represents a particularly compelling economical solution. The Company had always expected to launch additional satellites after the Iridium NEXT construction was completed to utilize the nine ground spares built into the program. This rideshare represents a material savings from other supplemental launch options due to the efficiency of sharing the rocket with GRACE-FO, and the incremental cost during the Iridium NEXT construction period is immaterial when considering the avoidance of unspent amounts contemplated under the Kosmotras program. It also affords Iridium the opportunity to rearrange its launch and satellite drifting plan and launch these five satellites directly into their operational orbital plane while increasing the number of planned in-orbit spares by three satellites.  Further, this development allows Iridium to complete the whole operational constellation at a faster rate than it would have with seven launches. Iridium will still consider launching satellites with Kosmotras once approvals are available.

Iridium NEXT is the company’s next-generation global satellite constellation.  Replacing Iridium’s existing network of low-Earth orbit satellites, Iridium NEXT is poised to re-energize the mobile satellite industry with faster speeds and higher throughputs for all industry verticals.  The launch of the Iridium NEXT constellation represents an unprecedented feat for satellite communications, and has been coined the largest “tech refresh” of its kind.

The Company has contracted with SpaceX for seven dedicated Iridium NEXT launches, deploying 70 Iridium NEXT satellites into low-Earth orbit, across a 13-month period out of Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. This eighth launch will increase the constellation’s count to 75 total in-orbit satellites, nine of which will serve as on-orbit spares. The first set of Iridium NEXT satellites was successfully launched on January 14th and is currently under test in orbit.  For more information about Iridium NEXT, please visit www.iridiumnext.com.

GRACE-FO is a successor to the joint NASA/GFZ GRACE mission, which launched in 2002 and is still in operation. The twin GRACE-FO satellites, which operate in tandem, will continue GRACE’s legacy of tracking changes in the distribution of Earth’s mass over time by creating monthly maps of Earth’s gravity field. The movements of masses of water, ice, air, and the solid Earth are driven by processes such as precipitation, droughts, floods, the melting of snow and ice, ground water usage and storage, and even tectonic events such as large earthquakes. GRACE is improving our understanding and knowledge of a variety of important Earth system processes:  the terrestrial water cycle and changes in ice sheets, glaciers and sea level, surface and deep-ocean currents; and variations in Earth’s lithosphere and mantle density. These measurements provide a unique view of the Earth system and have far-reaching benefits to society and the world’s population. The mission is managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate.

About Iridium Communications Inc.

Iridium® is the only mobile voice and data satellite communications network that spans the entire globe. Iridium enables connections between people, organizations and assets to and from anywhere, in real time. Together with its ecosystem of partner companies, Iridium delivers an innovative and rich portfolio of reliable solutions for markets that require truly global communications. The company has a major development program underway for its next-generation network — Iridium NEXT. Iridium Communications Inc. is headquartered in McLean, Va., U.S.A., and its common stock trades on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the ticker symbol IRDM. For more information about Iridium products, services and partner solutions, visit www.iridium.com.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 01/31/2017 02:34 pm
Quote
@IridiumComm: We confirm 8th @SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, for 1H 2018: 5 IRDM Next sats+2 NASA/German science sats.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/826414804537597953 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/826414804537597953)

Written up here: https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iridium (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iridium)

Press release and a couple more tweets in the mission thread here (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.msg1637279#new).

Link for mission thread is https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35275.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/02/2017 08:56 pm
Manifest updates / Mission threads to link:
SES-14  https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42215.0)
GovSat-1 (SES-16) https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36807.0)
Bangabandhu https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42214.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 02/03/2017 06:02 pm
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/827479074021003264
Quote
pbdes: @Thales_Alenia_S(3): 2d batch of IRDM Next sats planned for April on @SpaceX. Koreasat 5A geo sat may launch July on @SpaceX, then 3d IRDM.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/03/2017 08:10 pm
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/827479074021003264
Quote
pbdes: @Thales_Alenia_S(3): 2d batch of IRDM Next sats planned for April on @SpaceX. Koreasat 5A geo sat may launch July on @SpaceX, then 3d IRDM.

This is launches of Thales manufactured sats by SpaceX.  Sounds like Iridium Flight 3 wouldn't be until late July/August.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/03/2017 10:20 pm
The schedule at Spaceflight Now got updated today.  He's showing CRS-11 staying at April 9, but CRS-12 slipping to August.

Near term schedule looks something like:
February 14 : CRS-10
February 28 : Echostar-23
March : SES-10
(can anything else fit before CRS-11?)
April 9 : CRS-11
April (mid) : Iridium Flight 2
April (late) / May : there will be several commsats available to launch
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 02/03/2017 10:37 pm
The schedule at Spaceflight Now got updated today.  He's showing CRS-11 staying at April 9, but CRS-12 slipping to August.

Near term schedule looks something like:
February 14 : CRS-10
February 28 : Echostar-23
March : SES-10
(can anything else fit before CRS-11?)
April 9 : CRS-11
April (mid) : Iridium Flight 2
April (late) / May : pick a payload, there's a whole pile right over there...

How about for April (late) / May, I'll go with Inmarsat 5-F4.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/04/2017 01:21 am
The NROL flight is expected in March. That has been the date for awhile and I expect they get priority.

It would require a couple of 2 week turnarounds back to back, so maybe not.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/08/2017 12:53 pm
Experimenting with layout a bit in anticipation of Falcon Heavy this summer.

Looks like one of the side boosters will be the Thaicom LV (25 on the manifest).  To fully track reuse, then, the BOOST column would need to be something like:
[25-1]-[?]-[?]
to track components since they are apparently interchangeable.

This makes the BOOST column very wide, so I am considering trimming the 1S column down to three characters wide with a legend of OCI (OCISLY), JRT (JRTI), RTL (Return to Landing), DCH (Ditch).

I know some folks have older displays and I don't want to make the overall list much wider. 

Open to suggestions!!!

(please don't convert this discussion to a serial-number ambush.  Thanks.)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/08/2017 03:36 pm
Looks like there is more extra space between landing column and the satellite name column. Also, can make FHeavy simply FH.

I'd also say for an expendable flight, leave the 1s Target blank.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/09/2017 03:32 pm
Moved CRS-10 to 2/18 along with other mods.

Trying one idea with FH core information.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/09/2017 03:36 pm
Starhawk: you can get rid of few characters if you go FH(25-1, ?, ?).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/09/2017 03:47 pm
Still really long if you have muliple reused cores.  I definitely see your point.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dglow on 02/09/2017 08:08 pm
You could use separate lines for the side and center cores on Falcon Heavy flights, which would give more space and allow for indicating separate targets.

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy                   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (Cntr 25-1)  OCISLY
            (Side XX-X)  LZ-1
            (Side YY-Y)  LZ-1

Also, consider captializing 'Pad' and 'Ditch' as they aren't acronyms and readers won't attempt to interpret them as such.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 02/09/2017 08:12 pm
You could use separate lines for the side and center cores on Falcon Heavy flights, which would give more space and allow for indicating separate targets.

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy                   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (Cntr 25-1)  OCISLY
            (Side XX-X)  LZ-1
            (Side YY-Y)  LZ-1

Also, consider captializing 'Pad' and 'Ditch' as they aren't acronyms and readers won't attempt to interpret them as such.

Good thinking. Here's what I would suggest, based on that format (changes in red):


NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy(1)                Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (C 25-1)     OCISLY
            (L XX-X)     LZ-1
            (R YY-Y)     LZ-1
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: burningsheep on 02/10/2017 06:30 am
EXP for expendable?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/10/2017 07:03 am
The NROL flight is expected in March. That has been the date for awhile and I expect they get priority.

It would require a couple of 2 week turnarounds back to back, so maybe not.

Yes NROL flight now Mar 1, from Vandenberg. So don't see a clash with SpaceX Vandenberg manifest:

ULA:

The Atlas V launch carrying the NROL-79 satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office is confirmed on the Western Range for March 1.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 02/10/2017 07:11 am
You could use separate lines for the side and center cores on Falcon Heavy flights, which would give more space and allow for indicating separate targets.

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy                   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (Cntr 25-1)  OCISLY
            (Side XX-X)  LZ-1
            (Side YY-Y)  LZ-1

Also, consider captializing 'Pad' and 'Ditch' as they aren't acronyms and readers won't attempt to interpret them as such.

Good thinking. Here's what I would suggest, based on that format (changes in red):


NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy(1)                Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (C 25-1)     OCISLY
            (L XX-X)     LZ-1
            (R YY-Y)     LZ-1


Is there a definition what's the front of the FH? Otherwise L/R depends on your view point. It could even be Front and Back.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Zardar on 02/10/2017 08:12 am


Is there a definition what's the front of the FH? Otherwise L/R depends on your view point. It could even be Front and Back.

Its a rocket-ship! Don't use left and right, use Port and Starboard. Port side would be the side nearest the gantry?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: groknull on 02/10/2017 09:45 am


Is there a definition what's the front of the FH? Otherwise L/R depends on your view point. It could even be Front and Back.

Its a rocket-ship! Don't use left and right, use Port and Starboard. Port side would be the side nearest the gantry?


Yes, but that is a coincidence*.

Per the Falcon User's Guide, pages 12 & 13 (rev 2), the Falcon uses a right handed coordinate system with +X along the vehicle axis, and +Z on the opposite side from the transporter-erector.  For ships (and aircraft), +Z is "down", so -Y is Port and +Y is Starboard.

At LC-39A, the gantry is indeed to Port.


*[Maybe not - others, with more launch vehicle involvement than I, would be able to say if gantry placement on -Y is a convention.]
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/10/2017 11:42 am
The NROL flight is expected in March. That has been the date for awhile and I expect they get priority.

It would require a couple of 2 week turnarounds back to back, so maybe not.

Yes NROL flight now Mar 1, from Vandenberg. So don't see a clash with SpaceX Vandenberg manifest:

ULA:

The Atlas V launch carrying the NROL-79 satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office is confirmed on the Western Range for March 1.

I was describing a SpaceX NROL flight, not a ULA one. This is the SpaceX Manifest thread.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 02/10/2017 05:40 pm
You could use separate lines for the side and center cores on Falcon Heavy flights, which would give more space and allow for indicating separate targets.

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy                   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (Cntr 25-1)  OCISLY
            (Side XX-X)  LZ-1
            (Side YY-Y)  LZ-1

Also, consider not captializing 'Pad' and 'Ditch' as they aren't acronyms and readers won't attempt to interpret them as such.

Good thinking. Here's what I would suggest, based on that format (changes in red):

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy(1)                Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            (C 25-1)     OCISLY
            (L XX-X)     LZ-1
            (R YY-Y)     LZ-1
My suggestion is to pile all that stuff on one line.  It will mess with the column formatting but conserve space

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2017-05     FHeavy[1]               Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
            Ctr 25-1     OCISLY     L XX-X LZ-1    R YY-Y  LZ-1

edit: Formatting, and thanks for showing the [ pre ] tag
edit 2:  That's pretty much how you have it on the manifest now. 
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dglow on 02/10/2017 06:56 pm
Are fewer lines better than labeling consistency? It's a scrolling web page, and completed missions are occasionally purged off the top, so we won't be running out of space.  ;)

As for the Left/Right Port/Starboard debate, that's exactly why I didn't go there. Use Center, Side, Side or C, S, S. We understand the side boosters to be interchangeable, and we have booster numbers for identifying particular articles - that should be enough.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 02/10/2017 07:00 pm
Are fewer lines better than labeling consistency? It's a scrolling web page, and completed missions are occasionally purged off the top, so we won't be running out of space.  ;)

As for the Left/Right Port/Starboard debate, that's exactly why I didn't go there. Use Center, Side, Side or C, S, S. We understand the side boosters to be interchangeable, and we have booster numbers for identifying particular articles - that should be enough.

My only problem with not differentiating between the side boosters is that the left one will be facing backwards compared to the center core and the right side booster, so they won't be in identical configurations. There's a very well defined coordinate system in the Falcon 9 User's Guide (below), and I'm sure there will be one in the Falcon Heavy User's Guide as well.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Raul on 02/11/2017 12:01 am
New FCC application for F9-34 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=76059&RequestTimeout=1000) - a commercial GTO launch from Complex 39a.

Similarly like for EchoStar-23, there is no application for first-stage recovery operation - at least not yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/11/2017 01:57 am
New FCC application for F9-34 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=76059&RequestTimeout=1000) - a commercial GTO launch from Complex 39a.

Similarly like for EchoStar-23, there is no application for first-stage recovery operation - at least not yet.

At least two more expendable launches coming up soon, Intelsat 35e (6mt) and Inmarsat 5 F4 (6.1mt)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ZachS09 on 02/11/2017 04:50 pm
Isn't there an F9-33?

You can't just go from 32 to 34.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 02/11/2017 05:06 pm
Isn't there an F9-33?

You can't just go from 32 to 34.

Actually they could if they wanted to. But they didn't, F9-33 is here (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=75607&RequestTimeout=1000).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 02/13/2017 06:40 am
Isn't there an F9-33?

You can't just go from 32 to 34.

Actually they could if they wanted to. But they didn't, F9-33 is here (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=75607&RequestTimeout=1000).
This reminds me, the manifest in this thread lists the flight number for CRS-10 as F9-31, but the application data indicates this would be F9-32, and Echostar 23 will still be on F9-31 despite the order switch. We have had similar before where the Jason-3 launch was out of order when you look at flight number.

(Using booster serial numbers will help with this type of confusion once the old launches with unknown serial numbers have fallen off, but lets not repeat that conversation)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/13/2017 05:07 pm
meberbs,

If at the last minute SpaceX for whatever reason rolls the TEL back to the HIF and swaps cores with Echostar, what is the F9-?? since the serial numbers have changed as well?

I think I remember that due to the interchangeable nature of the Falcon, we were going to track reuse by order of flight and not by FCC application designation . . . ?  Hopefully someone else remember this?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 02/13/2017 05:28 pm
I don't see why the flight number would change, cores aren't tied to flight number (until after first flight because we are currently tracking re-use by original flight number) So if they swapped with the core for SES-10, then the number in the table would change to 23-1, but with Echostar would be no change (CRS-10 stays as F9-32). It would be more clear to track by serial number but some previous (and recovered) cores we don't know the serial number for.

We have used official flight number in the past: Jason-3 was F9-19 even though it came in between F9-21 and F9-22. If we decided to move away from this, I missed when that decision happened.

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2016-01-17  F9(19)       JRTI        Jason-3 [1]                   LEO  553     LC4E
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jakusb on 02/13/2017 07:25 pm
I don't see why the flight number would change, cores aren't tied to flight number (until after first flight because we are currently tracking re-use by original flight number) So if they swapped with the core for SES-10, then the number in the table would change to 23-1, but with Echostar would be no change (CRS-10 stays as F9-32). It would be more clear to track by serial number but some previous (and recovered) cores we don't know the serial number for.

We have used official flight number in the past: Jason-3 was F9-19 even though it came in between F9-21 and F9-22. If we decided to move away from this, I missed when that decision happened.

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2016-01-17  F9(19)       JRTI        Jason-3 [1]                   LEO  553     LC4E

Flight numbers are arbitrary (until now). Core numbers are not, although still unknown for several past flights.
On the other hand. The last flown core had it's core number very clearly painted between it's legs. So if SpaceX keeps doing that, we would, from now on, always know which core was used for which flight.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/13/2017 07:55 pm
meberbs,

I guess the point is that you are going by the FCC application, not by the actual flight order.  Yes, serial numbers will help, but we don't know if they will still be readable/repainted after three or four re-entries.  I am noting them as we (meaning the NSF community) start to find them regularly.

For example, we know the serial number of the core at McGregor, but nobody knows which flight it will be used for until it moves.  So, not really any better off with that information, because we saw them move before as well.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/15/2017 02:19 pm
Cross-posting:

Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust  10 min
 Iridium says the launch of its next ten satellites will slip to mid-June because of a backlog in SpaceX’s manifest: http://bit.ly/2kpGL5S
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/15/2017 03:39 pm
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding: (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/831890423383736320)
Quote
Customer on @SpaceflightInc 's Sherpa tug awaiting @SpaceX launch: Our best guess at this point is a 2018 launch.

Space Intel Report: US policy on India’s rockets: Dead man walking (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/us-policy-on-indias-rockets-dead-man-walking)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/17/2017 04:00 am
Spaceflight Now's Launch Schedule (http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/) is showing this flight in April.

Intelsat 35e scheduled for April
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/17/2017 01:59 pm
Do we have a SES-10 thread up yet?

https://twitter.com/SES_Satellites/status/832602692287680512
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/17/2017 02:38 pm
Do we have a SES-10 thread up yet?

https://twitter.com/SES_Satellites/status/832602692287680512

The schedule at the top of the thread has some links in it...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/17/2017 09:56 pm
Updates needed to manifest table:

Add discussion thread links
 CRS-11 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0)
 Iridium Next Flight 2 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0)
 Falcon Heavy Demo https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0)

Payload Mass
 Intelsat 35e -> ~6k
 Inmarsat 5 F4 -> 6100
 Iridium is 860kg per sat plus 1000kg for dispenser
 Bulgariasat-1 -> 3669kg (http://www.aerospace-technology.com/projects/bulgariasat-1-communication-satellite/)

Launch Dates
 Iridium -> June then August then about every 2 months
 Intelsat 35e -> move higher on the list, may actually launch in April
 Formosat/SHERPA -> move lower on the list, launch date unknown (could be 2018)
 NROL-76 -> not likely in March
 GovSat (SES-16) -> Q3
 In Flight Abort Test -> Early 2018?

Orbit
 In Flight Abort Test -> SUB

Naming
 Sun Synch Express has been called "SSO-A" lately

Landing
 Intelsat 35e likely expendable
 Inmarsat 5 F4 likely expendable
 NROL 76 unknown
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/20/2017 04:54 pm
CRS-10 success noted!

I am "in transit" with some changes, hope to get the first stage info realigned soon.

GO SPACEX!!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/21/2017 01:04 pm
Starhawk: I don't think we are going to get to double digit re-used boosters for years. So, it seems to me that on the FH booster numbers 25-1 (instead of 25-01) is good for now.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 02/21/2017 01:10 pm
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 02/21/2017 01:11 pm
What's the difference between the BOOST column and the FLT column?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/21/2017 01:38 pm
BOOST is currently sequential flight number. It may in the future become SpaceX booster numbers (see upthread discussion)

FLT refers to FCC mission number. The switch of the numbers of CRS-10 and Echostar is intentional as Echostar was originally intended to go first.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 02/21/2017 01:39 pm
What's the difference between the BOOST column and the FLT column?

BOOST refers to the first stage "booster" and the side cores on the Heavy.  References serial numbers seen near the bottoms.

If that's the case, then all of them except CRS-10 are wrong and in the incorrect format, plus a few are assumed.

Right now FLT matches up with the F9-XX numbers, and BOOST isn't consistently tracking anything.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: First Mate Rummey on 02/22/2017 12:30 pm
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 02/22/2017 01:56 pm
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

It may not be on the official SpaceX manifest, but Musk has made it pretty clear that the plan is to send at least one Dragon to Mars every synod.

"Elon: The basic gameplan is that we're going to send a mission to Mars with every opportunity from 2018 onwards."

https://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-code-conference-2016-live-blog/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: First Mate Rummey on 02/22/2017 03:17 pm
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

It may not be on the official SpaceX manifest, but Musk has made it pretty clear that the plan is to send at least one Dragon to Mars every synod.

"Elon: The basic gameplan is that we're going to send a mission to Mars with every opportunity from 2018 onwards."

https://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-code-conference-2016-live-blog/

But according to this:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf
page 47, there are only two opportunity for Red Dragon: 2018 and 2020.
From 2022 only ITS should fly.

Let's say Red Dragon 2018 is no longer planned and everything slips by 2 years, Red Dragon should still only fly in 2020 and 2022 and ITS by 2024.

Anyway once ITS is operational Red Dragon should no longer fly.

So:
* move Red Dragon (1) to 2020
* remove Red Dragon 5 -> 7
* possibly remove Red Dragon 2 and 3 or reschedule them to 2022 and also move ITS to 2024
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/22/2017 03:26 pm
I personally think the manifest should be focused on the near term (next 3 or 4 years). Anything after that is basically a big question mark because there are a lot of events that could change when those payloads or new vehicles launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ryanpritchard01 on 02/22/2017 08:48 pm
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 02/22/2017 09:00 pm
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 (http://web.archive.org/web/20130731182522/http://www.spacex.com/missions) and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/22/2017 09:59 pm
L2 39A schedule has updated. No target for the Static Fire yet, but the launch date [for Echostar 23] is NET March 12. Mainly to do with range availability.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 02/22/2017 11:01 pm
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 (http://web.archive.org/web/20130731182522/http://www.spacex.com/missions) and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

It has been on the manifest since something like 2006 when it was launching on a Falcon 5.
I can find the exact date if you wish.
It has continuously moved out as Bigelow's business plan has moved out with commercial crew.  There may have been a deposit put down but it's hardly defined.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dglow on 02/22/2017 11:31 pm
Starhawk, if you don't mind, here are a few more suggestions and associated rationale. I'm just playing around - feel free to take 'em or leave 'em.   :D

Observation: the BOOST and 1S columns work best when they are adjoining; do this by breaking out vehicle as its own column (LV) followed by the flight number (FLT), looking something like this:


NET DATE    LV  FLT  BOOSTR  RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  --  ---  ------  ----  -----------------------       ---  ------  -----
2017-02-28  F9  031  32      EXPD  Echostar 23 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40374.0) [11]              GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-03     F9  033  23-01   OCIS  SES-10 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34057.0) [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A
2017-04     F9               EXPD  Inmarsat 5-F4 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41560.0)                 GTO  6100    LC39A
2017-04     F9               OCIS  SES-11/Echostar 105 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40725.0) [15]      GTO  5400    LC39A
2017-05     FH  041  XX-01   OCIS  Falcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0)                   LC39A
                     25-02   RTLS     XX-02   RTLS
2017-06     F9               RTLS  Formosat-5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0) & [13]             SSO  525+    LC4E
                                   Sherpa SSO (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.0) [14]               


Notes:
– Ditching the parenthesis actually saves a couple of column spaces, and ends up more readable IMO.
– For FH flights, adopt the convention of listing the center core first, side boosters on the following line.
– The extra character on BOOST provides for future growth. ;D

Cheers,
D
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/23/2017 12:48 pm
Cross-posting as useful background:

Quote
IRDM CEO: SpaceX says rocket-build rhythm improves after June & we shld get quicker rate for our 65 to-be-launched sats on 7 Falcon 9s.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834759735668772864 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834759735668772864)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: baldusi on 02/23/2017 02:27 pm
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 (http://web.archive.org/web/20130731182522/http://www.spacex.com/missions) and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

It has been on the manifest since something like 2006 when it was launching on a Falcon 5.
I can find the exact date if you wish.
It has continuously moved out as Bigelow's business plan has moved out with commercial crew.  There may have been a deposit put down but it's hardly defined.

I remember a video interview of Mr Bigelow where he stated that he had made a 50k deposit towards the launch of a Falcon 1 or 5. And when SpaceX suspended that they asked him if they could keep them and move the option to a Falcon 9. And he said yes, but he appeared not to really count on that launch.
I would not put it on the manifest, when and if they actually name a payload.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 02/23/2017 02:47 pm
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 (http://web.archive.org/web/20130731182522/http://www.spacex.com/missions) and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

It has been on the manifest since something like 2006 when it was launching on a Falcon 5.
I can find the exact date if you wish.
It has continuously moved out as Bigelow's business plan has moved out with commercial crew.  There may have been a deposit put down but it's hardly defined.

I remember a video interview of Mr Bigelow where he stated that he had made a 50k deposit towards the launch of a Falcon 1 or 5. And when SpaceX suspended that they asked him if they could keep them and move the option to a Falcon 9. And he said yes, but he appeared not to really count on that launch.
I would not put it on the manifest, when and if they actually name a payload.

Found it on the first line of my tally, from July of 2004.  :o
The projected launch date was Q4 2005.   :D
Launch was to be from Vandenberg.
But we should take any further discussion of this over to the Bigelow threads (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30850.0).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 02/23/2017 02:50 pm
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

It may not be on the official SpaceX manifest, but Musk has made it pretty clear that the plan is to send at least one Dragon to Mars every synod.

"Elon: The basic gameplan is that we're going to send a mission to Mars with every opportunity from 2018 onwards."

https://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-code-conference-2016-live-blog/

But according to this:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf
page 47, there are only two opportunity for Red Dragon: 2018 and 2020.
From 2022 only ITS should fly.

Let's say Red Dragon 2018 is no longer planned and everything slips by 2 years, Red Dragon should still only fly in 2020 and 2022 and ITS by 2024.

Anyway once ITS is operational Red Dragon should no longer fly.

So:
* move Red Dragon (1) to 2020
* remove Red Dragon 5 -> 7
* possibly remove Red Dragon 2 and 3 or reschedule them to 2022 and also move ITS to 2024
Although ITS will almost certainly be delayed from the best case schedule (and they said as much when they presented it) it hasn't been officially delayed yet. They have also said they will keep launching Red Dragons even after ITS is operational. See here. (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41250.msg1589989#msg1589989)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/23/2017 08:32 pm
Quote
Industry official: @SpaceX has 7 launches from mid-March (EchoStar 23) to mid-June (@IridiumComm Next No. 2).

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/23/2017 10:25 pm
Space Intel Report: Iridium says 2nd-generation satellites working flawlessly as financial challenges approach (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/iridium-says-2ndgeneration-satellites-working-flawlessly-as-financial-challenges-approach)
Quote
One industry official said SpaceX was juggling a long list of customers who are anxious to launch, and that the company has planned six campaigns from its Florida spaceport before proceeding with the Iridium launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

Upcoming launches include the EchoStar 23 ... a SpaceX Dragon supply freighter ... SES-10 ... Intelsat 35e ... and the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office’s NROL-76.

An NRO spokeswoman on Feb. 16 said the satellite’s launch date had yet to be determined.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 02/24/2017 12:45 pm
So, apparently it is time for a level-set, everyone seems confused so hopefully this will clear things up.

I started this list to track, first and foremost, REUSE.  This is the innovation that SpaceX is using to change the industry.  So the BOOST column, which is a word chosen by me, is a sequential number I give to each flight since, when we started, there was no really good number to use for "labelling" boosters.  So, yes, BOOST means nothing outside of the manifest list.  To repeat, the BOOST number is fabricated by me and me alone.

That is why the SES-10 list has a BOOST with 23-1 next to it (first reuse of the booster which was used with BOOST of 23).  This provides the history of the stage, and is traceable back through it's working life.  This was the goal.

The manifest is long and includes everything we know, or are pretty sure about from those who frequent the forums and have true industry insight (which I DO NOT).  If we had a sliding time window or some sort of grade on quality of the information then we would be endlessly talking about what meets what criteria and how.  The only way to avoid that is to keep it open for everything.  There are plenty of smarts who visit here to keep the quality at a great level.

The Mars dates (and any Mars speculation) goes on the manifest because IT IS AWESOME TO TALK ABOUT GOING TO MARS.  No discussion on the matter.  The dates listed are the appropriate windows as determined by people who understand it.  They are not coming off until one year (or 10 launches) after they pass.

I am currently messing with getting the information straight to track reuse for Heavy.  As usual, there have been some great recommendations so far.  It'll get sorted soon.

To use this most effectively, assume the stuff above the dotted line has happened and the stuff below the line has not; assume the top 1 or two items below the line are what Chris B. has told us is coming next (since he knows everybody), and the next 2 or 3 are based on people who know who share their information here.  From about 5 below the line down the rest of the page is NOT RELIABLE.  However, it does give a look at work SpaceX has lined up and important milestones and the pressure against them.   And it tracks reusablility -- which was the original point anyway.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: neoforce on 02/24/2017 03:46 pm
Starhawk:

Thanks for this list, i really appreciate the work you do on it and I review it often.  As far as I'm concerned, it is your list to set up as you see fit. 

the BOOST column, which is a word chosen by me, is a sequential number I give to each flight since, when we started, there was no really good number to use for "labelling" boosters.  So, yes, BOOST means nothing outside of the manifest list.  To repeat, the BOOST number is fabricated by me and me alone.

I now understand this definition.  I know I have been confused about this term in the past.   You may want to make a note of that definition at the bottom of the first posting, since at some point your post here will get lost in the middle of a long thread.

I do think there is a potential for confusion.  As you said, when you started there was no good number to use for labeling the boosters.  But now SpaceX is showing bold number on every booster.  So people might get confused:

NET DATE    BOOST         FLT 
----------  -----------   --- 
2017-01-14  F9(30)        030  Pictures have shown the number 29 on this booster
2017-02-19  F9(31)        032  Pictures have shown the number 31 on this booster
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-03-12  F9(32)        031  I think pictures will show 30 on this booster

Pity that SpaceX waited until 2017 to put those numbers on there or this wouldn't have been a problem!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jakusb on 02/24/2017 03:48 pm
First of all: really appreciate this manifest! Thanks!!
Quick suggestion:
As people really like to have the CoreNr included, maybe add that as a separate column.
This info should now always be available to us  as SpaceX  paints the CoreNr since last 2 launches between the legs for everyone to see.
So recap of my suggestion:
- add CORENR and have it reflect the CoreNr as painted between legs. With reuse number added in case of reuse
- rename BOOST to SEQNR and make it r eflect actual order of launch and drop the reuse of
- SEQNR can be empty to add a * to it to indicate a estimated seqnr.
- have separate seqnr for F9 and FH
- CORENR can be empty where unknown (only older flights) and add * where not totally sure (yet), but best guess or expectation
- CORENR could also be shortened to CNR or C#. Potentially the 10 could be omitted (23 instead of 1023) but that would make it more confuse with SEQNR
See if you like it. It is just a suggestion. ;)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/24/2017 04:42 pm
I'm not sure that the manifest needs to track the FCC numbers (currently in the FLT column). There is little deviation from the sequence numbers (as Jakusb explains).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 02/27/2017 09:59 pm
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: CorvusCorax on 02/28/2017 01:11 pm
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.

or rather "NET Q4 2018" ;)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/28/2017 02:53 pm
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.

or rather "NET Q4 2018" ;)

All the dates on the table are NET. :-)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: neoforce on 02/28/2017 05:13 pm
You have a new entry for Q4 2018.

or rather "NET Q4 2018" ;)

All the dates on the table are NET. :-)

I agree they are all NET... and as a reminder of what Starhawk said up thread about Mars:

The Mars dates (and any Mars speculation) goes on the manifest because IT IS AWESOME TO TALK ABOUT GOING TO MARS.  No discussion on the matter.  The dates listed are the appropriate windows as determined by people who understand it.  They are not coming off until one year (or 10 launches) after they pass.

For that same reason, I'm sure he will add the lunar tourist flight when he gets to it.  Those are also AWESOME!!  :-)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 02/28/2017 05:16 pm
Actually the dates aren't really NET, they're a reasonable current guess based on the publicly available information we have to work with.  Any of them could move to the left or right.  Moves to the right are just far more common.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/01/2017 12:15 am
Current info is NET 4Q 2018.

Also I would call it "Lunar Crew Dragon" because whether it is a tourist or a NASA flight it is still a Lunar Crew Dragon flight.

The final item is that at this point there is only 1 mission and scheduling for more will have to wait.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 03/04/2017 09:47 pm
New launch contract for SpaceX:
Spanish satellite PAZ, which was originally scheduled for launch on Dnepr, now will be launched with SpaceX
http://www.infoespacial.com/mundo/2017/02/27/noticia-empresa-spacex-lanzara-satelite-espanol.html
(in Spanish)
There is a similar article at "Deutsche Welle", but in Russian...
In a nutshell:
* Hisdesat has canceled the contract with Kosmotras;
* They seek to recover $15 M via *Tribunal de Arbitraje de París*;
* They signed a contract with SpaceX for a launch by the end of 2017...

As I understand, PAZ is going to polar orbit, so it's a VAFB launch.
Also,
"With a total mass of around 1350 kg, the satellite is 5 m in length and 2.4 m in diameter."
https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/p/paz
So, may be it is a rideshare. With FormoSat-5 ?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/05/2017 03:45 am
New launch contract for SpaceX:
Spanish satellite PAZ, which was originally scheduled for launch on Dnepr, now will be launched with SpaceX
http://www.infoespacial.com/mundo/2017/02/27/noticia-empresa-spacex-lanzara-satelite-espanol.html
(in Spanish)
There is a similar article at "Deutsche Welle", but in Russian...
In a nutshell:
* Hisdesat has canceled the contract with Kosmotras;
* They seek to recover $15 M via *Tribunal de Arbitraje de París*;
* They signed a contract with SpaceX for a launch by the end of 2017...

As I understand, PAZ is going to polar orbit, so it's a VAFB launch.
Also,
"With a total mass of around 1350 kg, the satellite is 5 m in length and 2.4 m in diameter."
https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/p/paz
So, may be it is a rideshare. With FormoSat-5 ?

A rideshare would make sense for this if they really think it's going to launch in 2017.  I found a couple pdf files about the satellite on the company web site (they're in Spanish).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: SmallKing on 03/05/2017 03:52 am
New launch contract for SpaceX:
Spanish satellite PAZ, which was originally scheduled for launch on Dnepr, now will be launched with SpaceX
http://www.infoespacial.com/mundo/2017/02/27/noticia-empresa-spacex-lanzara-satelite-espanol.html
(in Spanish)
There is a similar article at "Deutsche Welle", but in Russian...
In a nutshell:
* Hisdesat has canceled the contract with Kosmotras;
* They seek to recover $15 M via *Tribunal de Arbitraje de París*;
* They signed a contract with SpaceX for a launch by the end of 2017...

As I understand, PAZ is going to polar orbit, so it's a VAFB launch.
Also,
"With a total mass of around 1350 kg, the satellite is 5 m in length and 2.4 m in diameter."
https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/p/paz
So, may be it is a rideshare. With FormoSat-5 ?
Must be SSO-A mission
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Raul on 03/05/2017 07:28 pm
F9-35 mission is changed to "SpaceX Mission 1363" in modified FCC application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=76144&RequestTimeout=1000). A commercial (non GTO) launch from Complex 39a.
And last FCC application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=76396&RequestTimeout=1000) with Same Requested Period of Operation refers about LZ-1 booster landing.

So what could mean mission 1363 and which mission it could be? NROL-76 ?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/07/2017 12:26 pm
Quote
Hisdesat: We dont yet know the ID of our co-passenger for late-2017 @SpaceX launch of our Paz radar sat into polar LEO from VAFB.#SATShow

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839102717591158784 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839102717591158784)

Edit: earlier tweet from Peter

Quote
Hisdesat moving Paz sat to @SpaceX follows @IridiumComm move from Dnepr to Falcon 9 for same reason. IRDM also left, maybe lost, big deposit

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839072751809884160 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839072751809884160)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/08/2017 09:32 pm
Quote
@SpaceX's Shotwell on launching on time: 'We'll get there. We are spending a lot of money to get there.'#SATShow

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839600156286795778 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839600156286795778)

Quote
@SpaceX Shotwell: We're investing 100s of millions in launch sites to catch up on schedule. We'll refly 6 boosters this yr.#SATShow

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839600968404713472 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839600968404713472)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/09/2017 04:25 pm
Here's a write-up of Gwynne Shotwell's remarks yesterday:

http://spacenews.com/shotwell-on-spacex-launch-backlog-we-will-definitely-catch-up/ (http://spacenews.com/shotwell-on-spacex-launch-backlog-we-will-definitely-catch-up/)

Contains some extra detail, such as:

Quote
Shotwell said it took SpaceX roughly four months to refurbish the Falcon 9 first stage for the SES-10 mission. In the near-term, she said, that will drop below two months, and eventually down to a single day.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 03/11/2017 03:55 pm
Shotwell said 6 re-used boosters would refly in 2017. I consider this a best case scenario along with past statements about flying 24 or so times in 2017.

We already know 3 of those re-uses:

* SES-10 (NET late March)
* 2 Side Boosters on FH Demo (NET November)

Looking at the manifest, I noticed that there are 3 more SES missions that could fly this year:

* SES-11 (NET May)
* SES-14 (NET H2)
* SES-16 (NET H2)

It makes sense to me that SES would want to the re-used boosters since they are taking the first one. Maybe they'll be competition for them (price and early launch). However, I wouldn't be surprised if SES takes them all or if we get more than 6 if other customers besides SES want to fly on a re-used booster.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: input~2 on 03/13/2017 09:22 am
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
....
All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!

Apstar-5C is another name for Telstar-18V
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/13/2017 12:15 pm
I don't recall seeing this Reddit post linked here yet, someone went to a conference where Spaceflight Industries was speaking and got a picture of their upcoming launch schedule.  It has their currently intended dates for the Falcon 9 dedicated missions, as well as rideshares on Falcon, Soyuz, PSLV, Minotaur C, Electron, VEGA.  There are also some notes on SHERPA and SpaceIL, and whether Dream Chaser could fly on a Falcon 9.

r/SpaceX user Swinusoidal: Spaceflight Manifest Shows 7 Dedicated F9 Launches Through 2020 In The Works - 4 SSO, 3 GTO (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5yjpvo/spaceflight_manifest_shows_7_dedicated_f9/)

The dedicated SpaceX flights:
2017-Q4             F9           SSO-A (575km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-Q4             F9           SSO-B (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-1 (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-2 (200x60000km ~27.5deg)
2019-H2             F9           SSO-C (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2020-H1             F9           GTO-C (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2020-H1             F9           SSO-D (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)


We had heard previously that Spaceflight Industries intended to fly at least 4 Falcon 9 missions to various orbits, so the later ones in this list may or may not be under contract yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/13/2017 04:28 pm
I need to spend some time later looking through these FCC permit applications, I've totally lost track of what's going on with them.

The latest permit application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=76558&RequestTimeout=1000):
Quote
This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1372, a commercial launch from Complex 39a, Kennedy Space Center.

Apparently they really have changed their mission numbering scheme for the permits.  The permit has operational period of 2017-04-16 to 2017-10-16, so that would probably be for a May launch?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/14/2017 09:20 pm
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Hawthorne, California, has been awarded a $96,500,490 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver a GPS III satellite to its intended orbit. Contractor will provide launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations, spaceflight worthiness and mission unique activities for a GPS III mission. Work will be performed at Hawthorne, California; Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida; and McGregor, Texas, and is expected to be complete by April 30, 2019. This award is the result of a competitive acquisition with two offers received. Fiscal 2016 space procurement funds in the amount of $96,500,490 are being obligated at the time of award. Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California, is the contracting activity (FA8811-17-C-0005).

I wouldn't interpret the "complete by" date as the launch date, I assume the launch would be a little earlier?  Just call it a 2019 launch for now?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/14/2017 10:31 pm
The launch will be the third GPS III launch and is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida in February 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Norm38 on 03/16/2017 01:40 pm
Hi Starhawk, I have a small suggestion for how the Falcon Heavy is shown in the table, to be more clear with all the tracking info.

Regular F9 flights are all on one line.  For FH, I suggest tracking the core on the first line, with the designator FHC.  Then putting the two boosters below as FHB.

Thus I'd change this:
NET DATE    LV  REUSE      FLT  RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
2017-08     FH                         Falcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0)                               LC39A
                        25-1         xyz   RTLS
                       [new]        xyz   OCIS
                                       xyz   RTLS
 
To this:
NET DATE    LV  REUSE      FLT  RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
2017-08     FHC [new]       xyz  OCIS   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0)                      LC39A
                 FHB  25-1        xyz   RTLS
                 FHB  xx-x        xyz   RTLS
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 03/17/2017 07:13 pm
The next flight after SES-10 is NROL-76 on April 16 and Inmarsat 5 as April 30. All other April launches should probably be moved to NET May.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/18/2017 03:19 am
HARP and OPEN will be launched  on SpX-12 (ELaNa 22).
https://www.nasa.gov/content/upcoming-elana-cubesat-launches

Quote
ELaNa 22
Date:  NET August 1, 2017
Mission: SpaceX-12 – Falcon 9 FT, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.
7 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 03/18/2017 03:31 pm
HARP and OPEN will be launched  on SpX-12 (ELaNa 22).
https://www.nasa.gov/content/upcoming-elana-cubesat-launches

Quote
ELaNa 22
Date:  NET August 1, 2017
Mission: SpaceX-12 – Falcon 9 FT, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.
7 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed

But that source says:
Quote
ELaNa XV
Date:  NET September 15, 2017
Mission:  Space Test Program (STP)-2 – Falcon 9 Heavy, Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
3 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed
and we know that's NOT going to happen. STP-2 is the second flight of Falcon Heavy and the first launch won't happen until more than 60 days after LC-40 is back on line which is NET August.

So no dates from the ELaNa page are reliable.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/18/2017 04:17 pm
But that source says:
Quote
ELaNa XV
Date:  NET September 15, 2017
Mission:  Space Test Program (STP)-2 – Falcon 9 Heavy, Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
3 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed
and we know that's NOT going to happen. STP-2 is the second flight of Falcon Heavy and the first launch won't happen until more than 60 days after LC-40 is back on line which is NET August.

So no dates from the ELaNa page are reliable.

We already knew in L2 that CRS-12 was moving to NET August, this is a public confirmation of it.  Everyone knows STP-2 is going to slip, but to when?  Unless they just want to make something up or put TBD, there's no point in changing the STP-2 date yet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 03/18/2017 04:26 pm
But that source says:
Quote
ELaNa XV
Date:  NET September 15, 2017
Mission:  Space Test Program (STP)-2 – Falcon 9 Heavy, Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
3 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed
and we know that's NOT going to happen. STP-2 is the second flight of Falcon Heavy and the first launch won't happen until more than 60 days after LC-40 is back on line which is NET August.

So no dates from the ELaNa page are reliable.

We already knew in L2 that CRS-12 was moving to NET August, this is a public confirmation of it.  Everyone knows STP-2 is going to slip, but to when?  Unless they just want to make something up or put TBD, there's no point in changing the STP-2 date yet.

Did you miss my point?
Since we all know that STP-2 isn't going to launch when ELaNa says it is, the other dates it posts are unreliable.
I was not suggesting we use these dates in the manifest. Quite the opposite.
And we are not supposed to bring any L2 info out here
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/18/2017 04:28 pm
Did you miss my point?
Since we all know that STP-2 isn't going to launch when ELaNa says it is, the other dates it posts are unreliable.
I was not suggesting we use these dates in the manifest. Quite the opposite.
And we are not supposed to bring any L2 info out here

I didn't miss your point.  I don't think your point is valid.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/19/2017 05:15 pm
Intelsat 35e FCC Application (http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws.exe/prod/ib/forms/reports/swr031b.hts?q_set=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number/%3D/SATSTA2017031400050&prepare=&column=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number)
Quote
March 14, 2017

Re: Request for Special Temporary Authority to Conduct In-Orbit Testing of Intelsat 35e;
Call Sign S2959

Dear Ms. Dortch:
Intelsat License LLC (“Intelsat”) herein requests a grant of Special Temporary Authority (“STA”) for 90 days, beginning May 25, 2017, to conduct in-orbit testing (“IOT”) of the Intelsat 35e satellite (Call Sign S2959) at 33.0º W.L. and to drift the satellite to its permanent location of 34.5° W.L. Intelsat 35e is scheduled to be launched no earlier than May 15, 2017. The IOT period is expected to last approximately 45 days and the drift to 34.5° W.L. is expected to last approximately five days.

If SpaceX is still aiming for launches twice a month then Intelsat 35e and CRS-11 should be the mid-May and end of May launches, in some order.

edit: This could also give SpaceX expendable launches three months in a row.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/22/2017 01:15 pm
One late 2017 launch now slipping back to 2018:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 8s8 seconds ago

Qatari sat operator @eshailSat's Es'hail-2 Ka-Ku sat for 26E (@ME_Europe build, @SpaceX launch) slips again, to 2018, Es'hailSat says.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/844552243399528448 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/844552243399528448)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 03/22/2017 01:30 pm
I expect there to be about 5 more updates like this waiting, since even at a pace of 1 launch/2 weeks which they seem to be ready for, they can only handle about 20 more launches this year.

Also on the topic of pushes to 2018, we know the Dragon in-flight abort has pushed to 2018 as well (it should reuse the capsule from the dm-1 mission).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: yg1968 on 03/23/2017 03:12 am
I was going to say the same thing. The in-flight abort test will be after the crew demo flight 1 test. This has been mentioned several times by SpaceX including on the second slide here:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41016.msg1624001#msg1624001

So the in-flight abort test should be placed after the uncrewed demo 1 flight on the manifest.

edit/gongora: changed "crewed" to "uncrewed"
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/28/2017 03:30 pm
CRS-11 date:

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 26s27 seconds ago

NASA’s Paul Hertz says at Nat’l Academies meeting that NICER payload to ISS set to launch May 14 on SpX-11 Dragon mission.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/846745556559036420 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/846745556559036420)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 03/28/2017 03:46 pm
Quote
Our CTO Martin Halliwell talks about #SES10 and the launch on #flightproven rocket!

https://twitter.com/ses_satellites/status/846742078310690818 (https://twitter.com/ses_satellites/status/846742078310690818)

https://www.periscope.tv/w/a6kjoTFETEtCeURWT2FEUUp8MWpNSmdZd3JPYXlLTOkPzfjLKb6zX572-CwWcPxK89_4GMQLEeCpVDy3-Oo7 (https://www.periscope.tv/w/a6kjoTFETEtCeURWT2FEUUp8MWpNSmdZd3JPYXlLTOkPzfjLKb6zX572-CwWcPxK89_4GMQLEeCpVDy3-Oo7)

Here are some notes:

* Mass is 5281.7 kg, insertion orbit will be 35410 km x 218 km at 26.2º, so barely subsynchronous GTO. Orbit raising will be done with chemical engines.

* SES block bought SES-10, SES-11, SES-14, SES-16. Then last August they were approached with the opportunity to use a pre-flown booster.

* Essentially no change in the insurance premium, 100th of a percent.

* First stage booster is contractually obligated to make certain altitude, velocity, downrange, etc. SpaceX works with the leftovers for landing. This will be a very hot landing, but if it comes back, SES gets "bits" for their boardroom.

* Satellite requires 13 hours of checkouts once the full stack is vertical on the pad.

Exact mass and target orbit for SES-10
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/28/2017 05:49 pm
* SES block bought SES-10, SES-11, SES-14, SES-16. Then last August they were approached with the opportunity to use a pre-flown booster.

He said order is 10, 11, 16, 14 (which is what we already have on the manifest).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 03/28/2017 06:52 pm
* SES block bought SES-10, SES-11, SES-14, SES-16. Then last August they were approached with the opportunity to use a pre-flown booster.

He said order is 10, 11, 16, 14 (which is what we already have on the manifest).

Right, that wasn't supposed to be a chronological launch order. I was unsure which order he said them in as I was typing them up, so I went with numerically ascending to be safe.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 03/28/2017 09:33 pm
CRS-11 date:

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 26s27 seconds ago

NASA’s Paul Hertz says at Nat’l Academies meeting that NICER payload to ISS set to launch May 14 on SpX-11 Dragon mission.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/846745556559036420 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/846745556559036420)

As this is very close to the manifest date for Intelsat-35e, should their order be switched?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/28/2017 10:08 pm
CRS-11 date:

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 26s27 seconds ago

NASA’s Paul Hertz says at Nat’l Academies meeting that NICER payload to ISS set to launch May 14 on SpX-11 Dragon mission.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/846745556559036420 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/846745556559036420)

As this is very close to the manifest date for Intelsat-35e, should their order be switched?

The order probably should be switched, May 15 is very much a NET for Intelsat.  It's probably the launch after CRS-11.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: shooter6947 on 03/30/2017 11:48 pm
Shouldn't the Moonshot be a Grey Dragon, in line with the Martian Red Dragons?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: luinil on 03/31/2017 03:10 am
The picture of the rocket showing it numbered 21, shouldn't the number in the list be corrected for crs-8 and SES 10 from 23 to 21? (then i wonder which booster was 23..)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cscott on 03/31/2017 03:17 am
Flight 23. Booster (B10)21.

The number painted in the booster is the booster #, not the flight #.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: luinil on 03/31/2017 03:39 am
Wasn't SES 10 Flight 33 (F9-033)?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 03/31/2017 03:47 am
Get that

2017-03-30  F9   23-1    B1021  OCIS  SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

properly colored and above the line!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 03/31/2017 08:02 am
Wasn't SES 10 Flight 33 (F9-033)?

SES-10 was flight 33 (if you're counting AMOS-6 in your flight numbers, which I am.  Go away Ed.  Nothing to see here.)  It was also "F9-33".  F9-33 is the mission number we've seen on their paperwork with the FCC (and I assume they use it on other paperwork.)  "F9-033" is not correct.  The booster has a serial number separate from the mission and flight number.  In this case it was the second flight of booster 1021.

Those numbers happened to line up for SES-10 but they are not always the same.  Echostar 23 was mission "F9-31" and flight 32.  It used booster serial number 1030.

Some recent FCC applications we've seen aren't using the "F9-33" format anymore, it's a completely different four digit numbering scheme and I don't know what it means.

As for the numbers used in the manifest table, Starhawk92 needs to work out what numbering systems he's comfortable using to track this stuff as we go forward.  His "Reuse" column is derived from the flight numbers, but he doesn't have an explicit overall flight number or mission number column listed at the moment.  This was the first flight where we've had to worry about showing reuse numbers, and tweaking of the table format will probably continue in the future as more data gets filled in and Starhawk92 figures out what works best for him.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: starhawk92 on 03/31/2017 01:37 pm
Success for SES-10, and history is made!!!  Congratulations to everyone SpaceX for taking another big step for mankind!!

Next "event" for the manifest will be the remove of the CRS-8 information on 4/8/17 per the "one year of history" plan.  All the 2016 launches have been listed elsewhere, so no need to keep them ongoing.

Also, to be clear, gongora was mostly right but REUSE now has nothing at all to do with flight numbers.  It's a number I pick myself (flight numbers/FCC numbers/etc are too variable).  Once the booster IDs settle in then REUSE may go away altogether.  As such, the NROL flight will be REUSE 33.

The big questions now is the CRS-9 booster.  I know one of you has it.  Please return to the Cape ASAP a this seems to be the next candidate to fly again!!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 03/31/2017 03:50 pm
The big questions now is the CRS-9 booster.  I know one of you has it.  Please return to the Cape ASAP a this seems to be the next candidate to fly again!!
It could be one of the FH boosters.  IIRC we know the identity one of the boosters, but not the other.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 03/31/2017 04:27 pm
Wasn't sure that all the dates were public yet, but with this manifest showing 11 launches by the 8/24 date, that's slightly less than a two week interval between launches.  If they come close to this it will be astounding.

Note that the manifest includes a 2017-06 launch of "PSN VI  + US Govt " from LC-40.  We have been told that pad won't be ready by then, so if it is in the lineup, it would be LC-39A.  Unless I missed something.

Also, despite Musk saying yesterday that the Heavy would launch this summer, we have also been told that it will be at least 60 days after LC-40 reopens.  SpaceX needs this time to modify the reaction frame at LC-39A for the three cores. So it can't be before October, unless something has changed.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/01/2017 01:04 am
Wasn't sure that all the dates were public yet, but with this manifest showing 11 launches by the 8/24 date, that's slightly less than a two week interval between launches.  If they come close to this it will be astounding.

Note that the manifest includes a 2017-06 launch of "PSN VI  + US Govt " from LC-40.  We have been told that pad won't be ready by then, so if it is in the lineup, it would be LC-39A.  Unless I missed something.

Also, despite Musk saying yesterday that the Heavy would launch this summer, we have also been told that it will be at least 60 days after LC-40 reopens.  SpaceX needs this time to modify the reaction frame at LC-39A for the three cores. So it can't be before October, unless something has changed.

We don't have recent dates for Bulgariasat or PSN 6, I would guess September for one or both of those.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 04/01/2017 11:55 am
We don't have recent dates for Bulgariasat or PSN 6, I would guess September for one or both of those.

Spaceflight Now recently updated BulgariaSat as late May. They of course don't share their sources...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/01/2017 10:54 pm
Manifest changes:
Move Bulgariasat to May, Intelsat to June (from Spaceflight Now schedule)
Move SES-11 to June (from SES-10 press conference)
PSN 6 - no recent updates, move to around September?
FORMOSAT 5 no longer has SHERPA as co-passenger
Move SES-16 to Oct (from SES-10 press conference)
Move CRS-13 to November
Move SES-14 to end of year (Dec) (from SES-10 press conference)
PAZ has co-passenger (identity not announced yet)
Hispasat 1F - remove the "Amazonas 5" alternative
Move SAOCOM 1-B to 2019
Remove ABS-8
Add multiple flights for Spaceflight Industries (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1653428#msg1653428) (SSO-B, SSO-C, SSO-D, GTO-1, GTO-2, GTO-C)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mark_m on 04/03/2017 07:06 am
Global-IP Announces the Selection of SpaceX to Launch its 150 Gbps GiSAT-1, scheduled for Q4 2018.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170402005120/en/

Quote
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will launch GiSAT-1. The deployment is scheduled for Q4 2018 and will launch GiSAT-1 into its trajectory for geostationary orbit off the west coast of Africa. GiSAT-1 will have a mission life of 15 years.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/03/2017 02:13 pm
Mission threads that can be linked to manifest:
Paz (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.0)
GPS IIIA-3 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42527.0)
GiSat-1 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42660.0)
SWOT (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/06/2017 03:02 am
New FCC Permit application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=77070&RequestTimeout=1000) for pre-launch testing of mission 1334 (commercial mission).  Anyone have a clue about this new numbering scheme?  Looks like the order of mission numbers on the permits right now is:
F9-33 (SES-10)
1363 (NROL-76)
F9-34 (Inmarsat 5 F4)
(CRS-11)
F9-35 (Bulgariasat 1)
1372 (Intelsat 35e)
1334 (SES-11?)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 04/06/2017 12:33 pm
Just a random shot in the dark - Could the new launch references be internal SpaceX accounting references for the whole operation from contract signed to payload release including LV construction?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/07/2017 01:50 pm
NROL-76 delay:
Yep, we've been waiting for the new date to become documented and now it is via L2 KSC/Cape scheduling.

NET April 30, same window.

Static Fire on April 26.

No reasons given, so likely the payload (which isn't talkative as we're talking about a NROL bird).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/07/2017 02:17 pm
Inmarsat 5 F4 delay:
L2 has an updated (post NROL-76) NET of May 15. Window opens at 1920 Eastern.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Ronsmytheiii on 04/08/2017 04:05 pm
Not sure which one, but an instagram post from a USAF airman is intriguing:

Quote
Work Flow at Space X's Vertical Processing Facility. Delivered an experiment to load into their Falcon 9 rocket for launch in June

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 04/09/2017 01:14 am
We're waiting for photos, but Gary for L2 McGregor is reporting FH side booster on the test stand! :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 04/13/2017 11:38 pm
New FCC Permit application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=77070&RequestTimeout=1000) for pre-launch testing of mission 1334 (commercial mission). 
1334 (SES-11?)

1334 is ASDS landing
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jak Kennedy on 04/15/2017 02:22 pm
Been looking for a link to the manifest table. Could someone post it please. I would love to see a launch in May :-)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AnalogMan on 04/15/2017 02:33 pm
Been looking for a link to the manifest table. Could someone post it please. I would love to see a launch in May :-)

First post of this thread (it is regularly updated as new info becomes available)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: dror on 04/15/2017 03:25 pm
From the table:

2017-03-30  F9   23-1    B1021  OCIS  SES-10 [12]                               GTO  5300    LC39A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-04-30  F9   33                     RTLS  NROL-76 [18]                                                    LC39A
2017-05-15  F9                            EXPD  Inmarsat 5-F4 [21]                   GTO  6100     LC39A
2017-05-14  F9                            RTLS  Dragon (CRS-11) [20]               LEO  10000   LC39A
2017-05-20  F9                            EXPD  Intelsat 35e [17]                       GTO  ~6000   LC39A       
2017-05       F9                             OCIS  BulgariaSat-1                            GTO  3669.    LC39A
2017-05       F9                             OCIS  SES-11/Echostar 105 [15]      GTO  5400     LC39A

There's a big (one month) gap and then two launchs within two days, or three in one week or five within two weeks ?!

What can we actually expect?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 04/15/2017 03:40 pm
What can we actually expect?

Expect Inmarsat-5 F4 to get pushed back a little, CRS-11 and Intelsat-35e to get pushed back a lot, and everything after that is a rough outline at best.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: meberbs on 04/15/2017 03:48 pm
What can we actually expect?

Expect Inmarsat-5 F4 to get pushed back a little, CRS-11 and Intelsat-35e to get pushed back a lot, and everything after that is a rough outline at best.
Not sure why we should expect Inmarsat to get pushed back at this point other than typical last minute delays due to things like weather. SpaceX just demonstrated a 2 week turn around, and the current 1 month turn around is likely a payload issue.

For reference, the table has these unrealistic dates because they are the last available official information. CRS-11 requires coordination with NASA, and will probably get adjusted after the Cygnus launch. I assume everything after that will end up rearranged based on that.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: The Roadie on 04/16/2017 07:41 pm
New booster seen this morning exiting Hawthorne final integration and parked on Jack Northrup.

Pics in the FB thread, credit John Hart: https://www.facebook.com/groups/spacexgroup/permalink/10155308608491318/

Trying to get a more aggressive photographer on the scene who won't be intimidated by security dudes exceeding their authority to request no pics. Feh. Public street - snap away!

Bumps and depressions in the interstage area might reveal if it's a normal core or a "special" one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Navier–Stokes on 04/17/2017 04:15 pm
From the OA-7 pre-launch news conference:
CRS-11 for SpaceX on 31 May with berthing on June 3.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/21/2017 01:50 pm
SpaceIL won't be flying this year (and thus potentially not at all unless Google moves the lunar x-prize deadline again):

Quote
A Spaceflight executive tells Quartz that SpaceIL’s rocket is still in the launch queue but will be unable to launch before 2018, effectively scotching SpaceIL’s chance at the contest barring a last-minute extension to the deadline.

https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/ (https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deruch on 04/27/2017 03:32 am
New FCC Permit application (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=77070&RequestTimeout=1000) for pre-launch testing of mission 1334 (commercial mission).  Anyone have a clue about this new numbering scheme?  Looks like the order of mission numbers on the permits right now is:
F9-33 (SES-10)
1363 (NROL-76)
F9-34 (Inmarsat 5 F4)
(CRS-11)
F9-35 (Bulgariasat 1)
1372 (Intelsat 35e)
1334 (SES-11?)
The new numbering scheme is a result of minor miscommunication due to SpaceX switching around launch order for their missions and thereby using "F9-35" for 2 applications to the FCC.  As a result of a request for clarification by the FCC due to SpaceX applying for 2 STAs for what looked (to the FCC) like the same mission (the 2nd was because flight order had changed making a new mission F9-35), SpaceX changed to using unique mission identifiers regardless of launch order.


https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=187984&x=. (https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=187984&x=.)
Quote from: FCC clarification request
To: Christopher Wilkins
From: Doug Young
Date: February 17, 2017
Subject: Request for Info - 0206-EX-ST-2017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Message:
This application and 0120-EX-ST-2017 both state that they are for launch vehicle communications for the same mission (F9-35). Explain.
...


https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=188552&x=. (https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=188552&x=.)
Quote from: SpaceX reply
From: Christopher Wilkins
To: Doug Young
Date: March 03, 2017
Subject: Request for Info - 0206-EX-ST-2017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Message:
This application has been updated to use a unique mission identifier (1363 for this mission) which SpaceX will be using to identify all subsequent missions.

This is motivated by the potential issue brought up in this correspondence, where the previous method of flight numbering resulted in a duplication of usage in the STA applications when the customer for a particular flight of the launch vehicle were swapped.

I don't know whether this naming schema is being used outside applications to the FCC.  But it would seem perfectly in character for SpaceX to find themselves using a unique naming scheme for each government body they have to apply to for launch approvals. ;D  ::)   
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 04/27/2017 12:03 pm
Cross-posting:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 5m5 minutes ago

@IridiumComm: Our 2d group of 10 2d-gen sats to launch June 29 w/ @SpaceX. @Intelsat: We expect late-June launch of IS-35e w/ @SpaceX.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/857564394749919237 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/857564394749919237)

Edit to add launch time:

Quote
Matt Desch‏ @IridiumBoss 1m1 minute ago

Announced Iridium NEXT launch #2 date this morning: Thurs, June 29, 1:04pm pdt. Will start sending sats to VAFB soon. T minus 9 weeks!

https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/857570216687128576 (https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/857570216687128576)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/02/2017 01:30 am
Changes needed on the manifest:
CRS-11 -> 5/31
Bulgariasat 1 -> mid June
Intelsat 35e -> late June
Iridium flight 2 -> 6/29
Remove SHERPA from the Formosat 5 flight
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/02/2017 03:49 pm
A post on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/68rpeq/the_official_spacex_manifest_has_been_updated/) shows recent updates to the SpaceX manifest on the company web site.  For the added missions, we already have most of them on our manifest, the only one I'm not sure about is "Airbus Defense and Space" launching from Vandenberg.

Some missions were removed from the company manifest.  DragonLab is finally removed, as well as Intelsat FH launch.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: soltasto on 05/02/2017 05:00 pm
A post on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/68rpeq/the_official_spacex_manifest_has_been_updated/) shows recent updates to the SpaceX manifest on the company web site.  For the added missions, we already have most of them on our manifest, the only one I'm not sure about is "Airbus Defense and Space" launching from Vandenberg.

Some missions were removed from the company manifest.  DragonLab is finally removed, as well as Intelsat FH launch.

The SARah satellites are built by Airbus Defense and Space, so the launch could be contracted for it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/02/2017 05:15 pm
Changes needed on the manifest:
CRS-11 -> 5/31
Bulgariasat 1 -> mid June
Intelsat 35e -> late June
Iridium flight 2 -> 6/29
Remove SHERPA from the Formosat 5 flight

On what basis do you list Bulgariasat 1 ahead of Intelsat 35e?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: ChrisGebhardt on 05/02/2017 05:34 pm
Changes needed on the manifest:
CRS-11 -> 5/31
Bulgariasat 1 -> mid June
Intelsat 35e -> late June
Iridium flight 2 -> 6/29
Remove SHERPA from the Formosat 5 flight

On what basis do you list Bulgariasat 1 ahead of Intelsat 35e?

Probably because other sites have been running with that order for over a month, now.  https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/02/2017 05:49 pm
A post on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/68rpeq/the_official_spacex_manifest_has_been_updated/) shows recent updates to the SpaceX manifest on the company web site.  For the added missions, we already have most of them on our manifest, the only one I'm not sure about is "Airbus Defense and Space" launching from Vandenberg.

Some missions were removed from the company manifest.  DragonLab is finally removed, as well as Intelsat FH launch.

The SARah satellites are built by Airbus Defense and Space, so the launch could be contracted for it.

I guess that would be SARah 1, and the OHB launch is SARah 2/3?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: soltasto on 05/02/2017 07:19 pm
A post on Reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/68rpeq/the_official_spacex_manifest_has_been_updated/) shows recent updates to the SpaceX manifest on the company web site.  For the added missions, we already have most of them on our manifest, the only one I'm not sure about is "Airbus Defense and Space" launching from Vandenberg.

Some missions were removed from the company manifest.  DragonLab is finally removed, as well as Intelsat FH launch.

The SARah satellites are built by Airbus Defense and Space, so the launch could be contracted for it.

I guess that would be SARah 1, and the OHB launch is SARah 2/3?

That looks likely
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jakusb on 05/02/2017 11:25 pm
Core spotted @Marana, AZ

by u/Tapedeck (https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/68wlq2/spotted_another_falcon_9_in_marana_az_there_was/?st=J286JM8L&sh=4b85abe9)


Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/03/2017 02:56 pm
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/05/spacex-launch-cadence-new-goals/

A bit of a short term run down....
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/03/2017 03:06 pm
Cross-posting:

Quote
Hearing SpaceX's next ISS resupply mission will be delayed until at least June 1, so no luck on a record three launches in the month of May.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/859785485207687170 (https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/859785485207687170)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/03/2017 10:45 pm
The problem with updating the first post is you can't "like" it more than once.  ;D
It's great to see the "green streaks" growing.
One more tweak is to move FH to at least 60 days after LC-40 is supposed to be ready, or around October at the earliest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/08/2017 02:41 am
[May 2, 2017] Airbus: GRACE-FO satellites get an earful (https://airbusdefenceandspace.com/newsroom/news-and-features/grace-fo-satellites-get-an-earful/)
Quote
The launch of the GRACE-FO twin satellites is scheduled between December 2017 and February 2018.

I got the impression from Iridium statements that this launch would be at the end of the constellation, guess we'll find out in 7-9 months.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: eriblo on 05/08/2017 01:24 pm
[May 2, 2017] Airbus: GRACE-FO satellites get an earful (https://airbusdefenceandspace.com/newsroom/news-and-features/grace-fo-satellites-get-an-earful/)
Quote
The launch of the GRACE-FO twin satellites is scheduled between December 2017 and February 2018.

I got the impression from Iridium statements that this launch would be at the end of the constellation, guess we'll find out in 7-9 months.

There is an interesting "launch window opens" count down timer to 09:00 UTC on December 8 on the mission homepage (https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/). Wonder what that is based on this far out...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mn on 05/08/2017 02:21 pm
[May 2, 2017] Airbus: GRACE-FO satellites get an earful (https://airbusdefenceandspace.com/newsroom/news-and-features/grace-fo-satellites-get-an-earful/)
Quote
The launch of the GRACE-FO twin satellites is scheduled between December 2017 and February 2018.

I got the impression from Iridium statements that this launch would be at the end of the constellation, guess we'll find out in 7-9 months.

There is an interesting "launch window opens" count down timer to 09:00 UTC on December 8 on the mission homepage (https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/). Wonder what that is based on this far out...

My guess (from experience): The web developer needed a date, so they picked a best guess date, once they have a date the launch window can be derived. They can always adjust as they get closer.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/08/2017 06:08 pm
Cross-posting:

Quote
Added launch window for next Ariane 5 & the penultimate Delta 2 launch. Also: Falcon 9/BulgariaSat 1 set for June 15 https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/861638979799658496 (https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/861638979799658496)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 05/08/2017 06:36 pm
The general launch schedule thread was just updated to move Intelsat 35e to NET July, but this thread and the SFN schedule still have it as late June and Intelsat is listing it as Q2. What gives? Was there an update on this?

Can SpaceX even handle multiple launches in a week, one from Vandy and one from KSC?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/08/2017 06:58 pm
The general launch schedule thread was just updated to move Intelsat 35e to NET July, but this thread and the SFN schedule still have it as late June and Intelsat is listing it as Q2. What gives? Was there an update on this?

Can SpaceX even handle multiple launches in a week, one from Vandy and one from KSC?

I haven't seen an update but it wouldn't be surprising if Intelsat slipped a week.  We have 10 launches on the manifest through the end of August, it would be fairly impressive if all of those launched by the end of September.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 05/10/2017 12:05 am
The general launch schedule thread was just updated to move Intelsat 35e to NET July, but this thread and the SFN schedule still have it as late June and Intelsat is listing it as Q2. What gives? Was there an update on this?

Can SpaceX even handle multiple launches in a week, one from Vandy and one from KSC?

What would stop them from two in a day?
Don't think there is a constraint except for not simultaneously and people/rest issues.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: IanThePineapple on 05/10/2017 12:24 am
The general launch schedule thread was just updated to move Intelsat 35e to NET July, but this thread and the SFN schedule still have it as late June and Intelsat is listing it as Q2. What gives? Was there an update on this?

Can SpaceX even handle multiple launches in a week, one from Vandy and one from KSC?

What would stop them from two in a day?
Don't think there is a constraint except for not simultaneously and people/rest issues.

Doing TWO countdowns at once would take a lot of resources, they'd need multiple control rooms
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Zucal on 05/10/2017 05:01 am
They have two in Hawthorne.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jfallen on 05/11/2017 01:42 pm
It looks like BulgariaSat-1 will re-fly the B1029 core as reported by multiple sites, including this one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 05/11/2017 01:48 pm
It looks like BulgariaSat-1 will re-fly the B1029 core as reported by multiple sites, including this one.

Yeah, this table has fallen behind on known core numbers including:
CRS-9: B1025
Echostar: B1030
NROL-76: B1032
Inmarsat: B1034
CRS-11: B1035
BulgariaSat: B1029
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deruch on 05/11/2017 08:41 pm
BulgariaSat: B1029
BulgariaSat: B1029.2!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: beancounter on 05/14/2017 02:19 pm
Love the way everyone's talking about multiple launches per month but so far the average this year is one.  :)
Cheers
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 05/14/2017 02:38 pm
Love the way everyone's talking about multiple launches per month but so far the average this year is one.  :)
Cheers
Actually, they didn't RTF until half way through January. From Iridium-1 to the last launch with NROL-76 was 3.5 months, and they did 5 launches. Tomorrow it will be 6 launches in 4 months.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: beancounter on 05/14/2017 10:09 pm
Ok fair enough, 1.5 per month average but hard to have half a launch so 1 or 2 depending on how you see things.
Cheers
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 05/15/2017 01:09 am
Love the way everyone's talking about multiple launches per month but so far the average this year is one.  :)
Cheers
Actually, they didn't RTF until half way through January. From Iridium-1 to the last launch with NROL-76 was 3.5 months, and they did 5 launches. Tomorrow it will be 6 launches in 4 months.

I was thinking about the cadence today.  NRO slowed them up for sure. 

If they can get consistent with the 14 day cycle, then they can just work on taking off 1 or 2 days at a time to get the cycle down. 

At some point payload availability will be a limit and that would be the best problem they could hope to have.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: BruceM on 05/15/2017 11:22 am

I was thinking about the cadence today.  NRO slowed them up for sure. 

If they can get consistent with the 14 day cycle, then they can just work on taking off 1 or 2 days at a time to get the cycle down. 

At some point payload availability will be a limit and that would be the best problem they could hope to have.

Yes, and perhaps consider in the resulting launch world who the winners and losers will be when launch service availability is less important than now (because most or all launch providers will have minimal backlog) and launch price even more important.  Could make for some interesting times...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/15/2017 02:13 pm
This thread is drifting from discussing the manifest into general discussions of SpaceX's pace and backlog, etc.  Those are interesting enough but there are dedicated threads for that elsewhere
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deruch on 05/18/2017 02:35 am
PSN-6 may be moved to 2018:

http://spacenews.com/china-great-wall-industry-corp-lands-indonesian-commercial-satellite-order/

Quote
The funded satellites are PSN-6, a C- and Ku-band satellite ordered from Space Systems Loral in 2014 that is scheduled to launch next year on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, the Palapa-N1 joint venture satellite, and the ageing Palapa-D. Adiwoso said PSN will seek to prolong the life of Palapa-D by moving it from 113 degrees east into a different orbit at 144 degrees east. Adiwoso said 70 percent of the capacity on PSN-6 is already sold.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/19/2017 01:50 pm
So to keep everyone up to date, as much as you guys in this thread are doing that really well....

CRS-11 - June 1.
BulgariaSat-1 - June 15.
Iridium NEXT - end of June.

But also a KSC schedule claiming a 39A launch really close to Iridium. We are working on how close they can launch per assets when one is on the West Coast and another on the East Coast. Problem is, they like to work "to the next mission" so asking about launches four launches away is always going to get a "one at a time" response (and understandably).

Then you have natural slips and so on - which results in natural spacing, but yeah, we are working through this in L2 and when we get some solid info I'll immediately turn it around into here.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lar on 05/19/2017 02:03 pm
This thread is drifting from discussing the manifest into general discussions of SpaceX's pace and backlog, etc.  Those are interesting enough but there are dedicated threads for that elsewhere

Correct. Please do use them.

As a note: I love how often a post from a member is enough to get a discussion back on track, you guys are great at self moderating most of the time. Thanks!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 05/19/2017 06:23 pm
Can we ask about the status of the Intelsat stage? Reports of a stage with reused hardware being shipped to McGregor and another stage shipping from McGregor westward raise some questions.

If this stage is SES-11 then that explains the reusable hardware, but then where is Intelsat? Is it at McGregor to be fired after the FH side core finishes its additional testing?

If this is intelsat, then a ASDS landing would be an exciting development considering its weight.

It could also just mean that Intelsat has slipped for whatever reason and SpaceX shuffled the cores.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jakusb on 05/19/2017 10:52 pm
Can we ask about the status of the Intelsat stage? Reports of a stage with reused hardware being shipped to McGregor and another stage shipping from McGregor westward raise some questions.

If this stage is SES-11 then that explains the reusable hardware, but then where is Intelsat? Is it at McGregor to be fired after the FH side core finishes its additional testing?

If this is intelsat, then a ASDS landing would be an exciting development considering its weight.

It could also just mean that Intelsat has slipped for whatever reason and SpaceX shuffled the cores.

The current partly informed/guesstimated deduction (on my part) is that either:
- Intelsat is indeed pushed back for later launch (post June) and SES-11 is riding on 1037
- or Intelsat is riding on 1037 not using its re-use attachment points.

It will be very busy on the roads for all planned launches to stay on track. Keep your eyes and ears out please.
If info is delicate, feel free to post it in L2 or PM me personally.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/20/2017 07:39 pm
We need to recruit some Indonesian members to watch the local media for us...

These seem to say there is a contract for SpaceX to launch Telkom 4 around June 2018 (although I can never be completely sure with Google Translate).

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4)
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/ (http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/)
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/ (http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: jpo234 on 05/20/2017 11:31 pm
We need to recruit some Indonesian members to watch the local media for us...

These seem to say there is a contract for SpaceX to launch Telkom 4 around June 2018 (although I can never be completely sure with Google Translate).

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4)
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/ (http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/)
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/ (http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/)
Behold my Google-fu:
https://seasia.co/2017/05/01/indonesia-to-use-spacex-to-launch-next-satellite
http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2015/12/30/ssl-to-provide-next-satellite-for-telkom-indonesia/
Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cppetrie on 05/20/2017 11:40 pm
We need to recruit some Indonesian members to watch the local media for us...

These seem to say there is a contract for SpaceX to launch Telkom 4 around June 2018 (although I can never be completely sure with Google Translate).

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4 (https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4)
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/ (http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/)
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/ (http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/)
Behold my Google foo:
https://seasia.co/2017/05/01/indonesia-to-use-spacex-to-launch-next-satellite
http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2015/12/30/ssl-to-provide-next-satellite-for-telkom-indonesia/
Nice find! So not only is this a new launch contract, but it will also be on a flight-proven booster.
Quote
President Director of Telkom, Alex J. Sinaga mentioned to CNN, “Investment in Telkom-4 [satellite] will be cheaper as we use a reusable orbital rocket from SpaceX, so it will be cheaper as much as 40 percent.”

Edit: added relevant quote from seasia.co article.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 05/22/2017 10:11 pm
What does it really mean to say that Telkom 4 is under contract to launch in June of 2018?

My personal list has 22 flights that are yet to be flown in 2017 and 29 in 2018.  Surely they won't get through that backlog in the next 14 months.  That would be ~40 flights in ~60 weeks.

This is a (Google Translated) quote from one of the articles:
Quote
The incident occurred early September 2016 ago, Or about seven months after Telkom signed On Ground Delivery contract with Space System / Loral (SSL) for satellite (spacecraft) and Falcon-9 from SpaceX.

If that's correct, the Telkom contract was done long before the AMOS-6 accident and resulting big delays to the manifest.

If they planned on June 2016 before the Amos-6 failure, that is no longer valid, and their current launch date is probably much farther out.

Looking back to a half year before Amos-6, "June 2018" would put it just after the GPS-3 launch, close the Telstar 18V and SpX/CRS-17 which may now be SpX/CRS-16. This puts it ~43rd on my list of launches.  It's 34th on this manifest.  Perhaps that's within the limit of the precision we can get, but it's launch is prossibly listed a bit too early.

Unless there is a "Business Select" line that boards early for rides on "flight proven" used first stages....
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/23/2017 10:59 pm
[SpaceNews] Eutelsat adding two more Quantum satellites to fleet (http://spacenews.com/eutelsat-adding-two-more-quantum-satellites-to-fleet/)
Quote
Paris-based Eutelsat has one Quantum satellite under construction from Airbus Defence and Space UK, purchased in 2015 for 180 million euros ($198 million)...Guilleux said Eutelsat is placing the first Quantum satellite at 12.5 degrees west, a geostationary position over the Atlantic Ocean with the ability to cover the Americas, Europe and Africa...SpaceX is under contract to launch the satellite in 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/25/2017 06:42 pm
Looking like SpaceX are going for four launches in June ... with Iridium moving forward to 25th:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.msg1683018#msg1683018 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.msg1683018#msg1683018)

 :o
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/25/2017 07:58 pm
Bah, sorry everyone I spoke too soon:

Apparently now NET July 1?

Quote
SpaceX manifest news today: Iridium launch from Vandenberg jumps from June 29 to June 25, IS-35e from Cape NET July 1, then SES-11 late July

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/867821279071666178 (https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/867821279071666178)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 05/25/2017 09:06 pm
Bah, sorry everyone I spoke too soon:

Apparently now NET July 1?

Quote
SpaceX manifest news today: Iridium launch from Vandenberg jumps from June 29 to June 25, IS-35e from Cape NET July 1, then SES-11 late July

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/867821279071666178 (https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/867821279071666178)

NET July 1, no worries.

I was looking at the remaining 2017 manifested East coast launches this morning.  With a 2 week cadence there is plenty of room to fit them all in without having to get crazy.

It could be possible that for the first time SpaceX has this in hand and that it could be weather, payload and range issues that limit flights.

In 6-12 months it maybe clear that the sales folks have a hard time maintaining a backlog.

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 05/25/2017 09:39 pm
So SpaceX has launched six times in the first five months of the year, and plans to launch four in the sixth (plus one day).

Hoping they can pull it off safely and successfully!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: deruch on 05/26/2017 12:15 am
Unless there is a "Business Select" line that boards early for rides on "flight proven" used first stages....

In the below linked article on SFN, there is a statement that suggest this may already have happened for BulgariaSat-1: 

https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/05/05/bulgarias-first-communications-satellite-to-ride-spacexs-second-reused-rocket/

Quote
Industry sources previously said BulgariaSat 1 recently moved ahead of other payloads in the Falcon 9 manifest, perhaps in exchange for an agreement to launch on a reused booster.

Not yet a definitive statement that this was so, but seems likely and would make a lot of sense from a scheduling/manifest management perspective.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 05/26/2017 03:28 am
[SpaceNews] Eutelsat adding two more Quantum satellites to fleet (http://spacenews.com/eutelsat-adding-two-more-quantum-satellites-to-fleet/)
Quote
Paris-based Eutelsat has one Quantum satellite under construction from Airbus Defence and Space UK, purchased in 2015 for 180 million euros ($198 million)...Guilleux said Eutelsat is placing the first Quantum satellite at 12.5 degrees west, a geostationary position over the Atlantic Ocean with the ability to cover the Americas, Europe and Africa...SpaceX is under contract to launch the satellite in 2019.

This article has been updated, now says:
Quote
Eutelsat signed a contract with SpaceX last year for a Falcon 9 launch of Quantum or another Eutelsat satellite. Eutelsat spokeswoman Vanessa O’Connor said May 24 that Eutelsat has not announced the launch provider for Quantum, which Guilleux said will launch in 2019.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/27/2017 09:07 pm
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/05/26/earlier-launch-of-nasas-psyche-mission-touted-as-cost-saving-measure/

Because of the launch dates for the two separate missions Lucy and Psyche contracts for LV should show up next year.  F9 and Atlas V are the current vehicles of choice that meet the mission needs. Launch dates would be 2021 and 2022. If Vulcan is developed by 2020 Atlas V may not be available as an LV where upon ULA would have to substitute a Vulcan for no additional charge to NASA. That is if NASA believes that the certification risks for Vulcan are low to meet the NASA standards for these launches. A lengthy overlap of Vulcan and Atlas V could prove very costly to ULA. So it will be interesting to see how these contract bids and awards turn out.

If SpaceX wins them then there will be additional launches for F9 in 2021 and 2022. Also it would be interesting whether SpaceX does two bids for each (a new vehicle bid price and a used vehicle bid price).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/02/2017 01:15 pm
Eutelsat Quantum is launching on Ariane 5, removing it from the SpaceX manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cppetrie on 06/06/2017 09:10 pm
I hadn't seen this come up anywhere here yet, so if so missed this, please disregard.

Fox Business is reporting that SpaceX will be launching an Air Force payload in August and from the sounds of it, it'll be the X37-B.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/06/elon-musks-spacex-to-conduct-first-mission-with-u-s-air-force.html

Quote
Tech entrepreneur and founder of aerospace company SpaceX, Elon Musk, is teaming up with the U.S. Air Force for the first time later this summer to conduct a joint mission for the military.

Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said on Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee that SpaceX would be sending the next Air Force payload up into space in August via one of the unmanned, reusable X-37B space planes.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mainmind on 06/06/2017 09:11 pm
Space-X to launch Air Force's next X-37B on a Falcon 9 August 2017. First X-37B launch not on an Atlas 5. First Air Force payload for Space X (per the article). Launch site (VAFB vs. KSC) not mentioned.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/06/spacex-launches-us-air-force-x-37b-space-plane.html
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: mainmind on 06/06/2017 09:12 pm
I hadn't seen this come up anywhere here yet, so if so missed this, please disregard.

Fox Business is reporting that SpaceX will be launching an Air Force payload in August and from the sounds of it, it'll be the X37-B.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/06/elon-musks-spacex-to-conduct-first-mission-with-u-s-air-force.html

Quote
Tech entrepreneur and founder of aerospace company SpaceX, Elon Musk, is teaming up with the U.S. Air Force for the first time later this summer to conduct a joint mission for the military.

Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said on Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee that SpaceX would be sending the next Air Force payload up into space in August via one of the unmanned, reusable X-37B space planes.

Ha. Beat me by a minute. We must have been typing at the same time.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cppetrie on 06/06/2017 09:14 pm
Ha. Beat me by a minute. We must have been typing at the same time.

I will admit I was slightly gleeful that I was the first to report it, but also glad to see you cited a different source that corroborates the whole thing.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/06/2017 09:27 pm
Created a new thread for this surprising X-37B news:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43088.0)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/06/2017 10:12 pm
Wow, definitely warrants its own thread:

I hadn't seen this come up anywhere here yet, so if so missed this, please disregard.

Fox Business is reporting that SpaceX will be launching an Air Force payload in August and from the sounds of it, it'll be the X37-B.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/06/elon-musks-spacex-to-conduct-first-mission-with-u-s-air-force.html

Quote
Tech entrepreneur and founder of aerospace company SpaceX, Elon Musk, is teaming up with the U.S. Air Force for the first time later this summer to conduct a joint mission for the military.

Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said on Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee that SpaceX would be sending the next Air Force payload up into space in August via one of the unmanned, reusable X-37B space planes.

Space-X to launch Air Force's next X-37B on a Falcon 9 August 2017. First X-37B launch not on an Atlas 5. First Air Force payload for Space X (per the article). Launch site (VAFB vs. KSC) not mentioned.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/06/spacex-launches-us-air-force-x-37b-space-plane.html

Edit/Lar: see also https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42889 which is about tech requirements, not mission specific stuff...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 06/08/2017 04:02 pm
Why would we not assume the X-37B core would RTLS? It should be lighter than Dragon right?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 06/09/2017 01:31 pm
So here's how we sit, with L2 range approved dates too:


June 17 - F9 with BulgariaSat-1 - KSC 39A - 14:10 – 16:10 (Eastern)
June 25 - F9 with Iridium NEXT Flight 2 - Vandy SLC-4E - 16:24 (Eastern)
July 1 - F9 with Intelsat-35E - KSC 39A - 19:35-20:35 (Eastern)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Joris on 06/09/2017 01:44 pm
Elon Musk tweet suggests Falcon Heavy launch in September or October.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/872888863504474112

Quote
All Falcon Heavy cores should be at the Cape in two to three months, so launch should happen a month after that

Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: DOCinCT on 06/10/2017 12:19 pm
Why would we not assume the X-37B core would RTLS? It should be lighter than Dragon right?
Add in the weight of the fairing.   Dragon weighs about 9,300 lbs, typical payload 6,000 lbs, total 15,300 lbs. X-37B is about 11,000 lbs, I think the fairing is about 4,500 lbs, so about the same?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: AncientU on 06/10/2017 01:11 pm
Why would we not assume the X-37B core would RTLS? It should be lighter than Dragon right?
Add in the weight of the fairing.   Dragon weighs about 9,300 lbs, typical payload 6,000 lbs, total 15,300 lbs. X-37B is about 11,000 lbs, I think the fairing is about 4,500 lbs, so about the same?

Fairing dropped just after staging, so X-37B is lesser payload.  RTLS is a good bet.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Comga on 06/10/2017 04:35 pm
Why would we not assume the X-37B core would RTLS? It should be lighter than Dragon right?
Add in the weight of the fairing.   Dragon weighs about 9,300 lbs, typical payload 6,000 lbs, total 15,300 lbs. X-37B is about 11,000 lbs, I think the fairing is about 4,500 lbs, so about the same?

Fairing dropped just after staging, so X-37B is lesser payload.  RTLS is a good bet.
So says Chris  (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/06/bulgariasat-launch-spacex-secures-x-37b-contract/)G
Edit: Duh!
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/10/2017 04:58 pm
Why would we not assume the X-37B core would RTLS? It should be lighter than Dragon right?
Add in the weight of the fairing.   Dragon weighs about 9,300 lbs, typical payload 6,000 lbs, total 15,300 lbs. X-37B is about 11,000 lbs, I think the fairing is about 4,500 lbs, so about the same?

Fairing dropped just after staging, so X-37B is lesser payload.  RTLS is a good bet.
So says Chris B (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/06/bulgariasat-launch-spacex-secures-x-37b-contract/)
That was Chris G.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/14/2017 01:25 pm
Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 5m5 minutes ago

Valerie Skarupa, Spaceflight: our first dedicated rideshare launch, on a Falcon 9, now scheduled for Feb 2018.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/874979610966011904 (https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/874979610966011904)
Title: Re: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Jakusb on 06/21/2017 07:26 pm
Quote
SecAf Wilson just said SpaceX would "go up again on August 17" so presumably that's the exact date for the X-37B launch.


https://mobile.twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/877538416593960960
Title: Re: Re: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/23/2017 08:21 pm
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Quote
Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch another Dragon supply mission to the ISS on August 10 at
2:07pm EDT. The launch window is instantaneous.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/25/2017 08:12 pm
In the interest of cleaning up this thread a bit I've moved the discussion of the table format to a separate thread:

SpaceX Manifest Table Formatting Discussion (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43214.0)

I'd prefer for this thread to focus on the information in the table, not how it looks.

I've made another change to the format of the top post, try it out and see what you think.  Any discussion can be done in the other thread please.

p.s.  Have I mentioned how much I f---ing hate BBCode tables?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/26/2017 02:49 am
Quote
Q: @IridiumBoss Mr. Desch, congratulations! What are the target dates for Iridium3 & others? When is completion of constellation expected? Thx

Tweet from Matt Desch (https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/879166773769060352): Completion in mid-2018 (6 more by then). Will announce date for next one soon.

There seems to still be some uncertainty in the west coast schedule for the next couple months.  Formosat-5 and Iridium Flight 3 are the next two flights from Vandenberg.  Whether or not Formosat-5 is flying in July isn't completely clear yet.  Hopefully in the next week or two we'll get more definite schedule information.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/27/2017 01:58 am
The schedule on SpaceflightNow has Formosat-5 slipping to August and Iridium 3 slipping to September.  It also has SES-11 slipping to September, which means the next launch after Intelsat 35e would be CRS-12.  Guess we'll find out in the next week or two if he's right, if something besides Intelsat is going to launch in July we should hear about it soon.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: IanThePineapple on 06/27/2017 02:04 am
The schedule on SpaceflightNow has Formosat-5 slipping to August...

I'm honestly wondering if Formosat will even launch this year, it's slipping like Falcon Heavy.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/27/2017 02:06 am
The schedule on SpaceflightNow has Formosat-5 slipping to August...

I'm honestly wondering if Formosat will even launch this year, it's slipping like Falcon Heavy.

It should be launching NLT August.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/27/2017 02:08 pm
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 06/27/2017 02:20 pm
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?
Title: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 06/27/2017 03:26 pm
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

We don't know FORMOSAT-5's landing location, or if SES-11 will even land at all.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 06/27/2017 06:17 pm
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

We don't know FORMOSAT-5's landing location, or if SES-11 will even land at all.

Uhh...

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1695270#msg1695270

Aren't there FCC filings for a transmitter on the ASDS? I seem to recall something like that, but don't have specifics on it.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: old_sellsword on 06/27/2017 06:46 pm
Updated it [Formosat-5] via the L2 schedules. August 24 NET. Former Iridium NEXT-3 slot - which is now in September.

Can you add landing locations for FORMOSAT and SES-11?

We don't know FORMOSAT-5's landing location, or if SES-11 will even land at all.

Uhh...

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1695270#msg1695270

That's an L2 link, which serves no appreciable purpose for this manifest until Chris decides to take that information public.

Aren't there FCC filings for a transmitter on the ASDS? I seem to recall something like that, but don't have specifics on it.

Yes, although SpaceX recently made it much harder to match FCC filings to missions since they started using MXXXX identifiers instead of F9-XX.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Chris Bergin on 06/27/2017 07:00 pm

That's an L2 link, which serves no appreciable purpose for this manifest until Chris decides to take that information public.



My ears are burning ;)

ASDS landing [of Formosat-5], basically, for the purpose of answering the question.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 06/27/2017 07:59 pm

That's an L2 link, which serves no appreciable purpose for this manifest until Chris decides to take that information public.



My ears are burning ;)

ASDS landing, basically, for the purpose of answering the question.

If I may be so bold, you are referring to FORMOSAT-5 being ASDS correct?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/27/2017 07:59 pm
ASDS landing, basically, for the purpose of answering the question.
If I may be so bold, you are referring to FORMOSAT-5 being ASDS correct?

Yes
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: tleski on 06/28/2017 02:25 pm
Cross posting (refers to X37-B (OTV-5))

Spaceflight Now (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/) is showing this on August 28.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 06/30/2017 04:10 pm
For the other people who look at FCC permits:

Did I miss one or is 1387 expendable?  SES-11?

Is 1348 for OTV-5?  If not what the heck is it?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Raul on 06/30/2017 09:11 pm
Yes, it looks there is another expendable M1387 in near future except M1372 for Intelsat-35e, no idea which one.

I consider SES-11 rather like M1370 (ASDS).
I agree with OTV-5 like M1348 (LZ1).
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: Lars-J on 07/07/2017 10:23 pm
This is probably the best thread for this... https://www.instagram.com/p/BWPu_jrAFBB/

Quote
elonmusk 10 so far this year, another 12 to go
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 07/07/2017 10:31 pm
So 12 more to go, while there are currently 15 marked as this year on this manifest.  Any guesses as to the most likely ones to drop off?  The last three (Hispasat 1F, Bangabandhu, Paz & co-passenger) seem like a reasonable place to look...
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/07/2017 10:51 pm
So 12 more to go, while there are currently 15 marked as this year on this manifest.  Any guesses as to the most likely ones to drop off?  The last three (Hispasat 1F, Bangabandhu, Paz & co-passenger) seem like a reasonable place to look...

I would guess the next 8 on the manifest, and CRS-13, should fly this year.  Hard to say which of the others at this point.  Iridium Flight 5 in December is questionable if Flight 3 is pushed to September.  Is SAOCOM 1A actually going to be completed soon?  (still need to start a mission thread for that one.)  Bangabandhu owners really seemed to want a December launch, and have said recently they were on track for December.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: wannamoonbase on 07/07/2017 11:59 pm
So 12 more to go, while there are currently 15 marked as this year on this manifest.  Any guesses as to the most likely ones to drop off?  The last three (Hispasat 1F, Bangabandhu, Paz & co-passenger) seem like a reasonable place to look...

I'll stick my neck out and prepare for the blowback.

FH delay till Q1 2018

Getting LC40 back into operation then the LC39A mods then testing and getting FH ready.  Sounds like a lot to cram into 5.5 months.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: abaddon on 07/08/2017 12:38 am
The question isn't if FH will slip to 2018, the question is if it is one of the 12 Musk stated as still scheduled for 2017.  I think that is very likely.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/08/2017 07:25 pm
Presumably 3 or 4 of the 12 Elon cites are from VAFB. Let's be conservative and say 3, so at most 9 from the Cape, or 2 a month with, say, just 1 in December.

So that's a plausible limit for the most SpaceX can physically do this year, but I can't help wondering if they are close to being limited by payload availability?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/08/2017 07:44 pm
They are not limited by payload availability this year, and probably won't be next year.  Keep in mind they are still launching the non-government payloads 5+ months late (some of the September/October launches will be stuff originally targeted for late 2016).  With the leftovers from 2017 spilling into 2018, they have around 30 missions for next year.  The limiting factor will be launch vehicle availability for the near future, probably until 2019.  Even reusing some first stages isn't going to change that.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/12/2017 01:37 am
Moving SAOCOM-1A to March 2018
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 07/12/2017 07:18 pm
I posted this in other thread although here it's more useful

As the second part of the year seems to be pretty packed with launches, a chart like 'FPIP' could be useful.
So here is my version.
Notes:
The chart shows Falcon launches (blue marks) from Eastern Range (SLC-39A and SLC-40) and from Western Range (SLC-4E)
along with launches by ULA and Orbital (red marks) from the same ranges - for possible scheduling conflicts.
Light brown shadings show ongoing repair work on SLC-40 ("A") and pad modifications at SLC-39A ("B" & "C").
Red frame shows closing period for Eastern Range maintenance.
Green vertical line - current date.
And the last note - on the difference between blue and red marks.
All the ULA launches have dates. Of course they are flexible (subject to change), but the planned date is defined. Therefore the red marks show these planned dates for ULA/Orbital launches, at least what we know currently.
This is not the case with SpaceX' plans, and the blue marks are mostly (with two exceptions) guesswork. This is illustrated on the example of X-37: for this launch we have two dates (Aug 17 and Aug 28), and I showed this interval with dotted blue frame. However, I did not do this for the rest of launches, this would make chart unreadable.
Basically, this chart shows only two specific moments:
a tight "knot" of 3 launches from Cape in August and a similar "knot" from VAFB in September.

And the chart (which I will upgrade eventually)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: yokem55 on 07/13/2017 05:21 pm
So is CRS 13 not going to make 2017 then?
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/13/2017 05:46 pm
So is CRS 13 not going to make 2017 then?

It's still 2017 as far as we know, looks like smoliarm missed that one.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 07/13/2017 06:15 pm
So is CRS 13 not going to make 2017 then?

Quote
2018
NET January - Dragon SpX-13 (CRS-13), ASIM, TSIS, MISSE-FF - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A

as in the latest version of "US Launch Schedule"
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1694807#msg1694807
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/13/2017 06:21 pm
I haven't seen anything about CRS-13 slipping, so it's staying in 2017 on my manifest.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 07/13/2017 06:31 pm
I haven't seen anything about CRS-13 slipping, so it's staying in 2017 on my manifest.

This is the source:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1685870#msg1685870

and here is the original source ("2017 AST Compendium")
https://brycetech.com/downloads/FAA_Annual_Compendium_2017.pdf
page 73 (79 actual)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/13/2017 06:38 pm
I haven't seen anything about CRS-13 slipping, so it's staying in 2017 on my manifest.

This is the source:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1685870#msg1685870

and here is the original source ("2017 AST Compendium")
https://brycetech.com/downloads/FAA_Annual_Compendium_2017.pdf
page 73 (79 actual)

I don't consider that report to be a reliable source for dates.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: smoliarm on 07/13/2017 07:19 pm
Well, I'm not arguing, I just explained why CRS-13 is missing in my chart.

With respect to FAA Compendium: it does show a typical planning pattern for cargo flights to ISS.
Looks like NASA consider 5 flights per year (3 Dragons + 2 Cygnuses) as normal transport volume.
But, of course, current demand determines the actual schedule.

In this year we already have 3 cargo flights:
Feb 19, 2017 - Dragon CRS-10
Apr 18, 2017 - Cygnus OA-7
Jun 03, 2017 - Dragon CRS-11

And 3 more are scheduled:
Aug 10, 2017 - Dragon CRS-12
Sep 12, 2017 - Cygnus OA-8
Nov 17, 2017 - Cygnus OA-9

Therefore it seems like CRS-13 will be in 2018...
Although I have not seen current ISS FPIP  :)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: rockets4life97 on 07/14/2017 11:31 pm
Well, I'm not arguing, I just explained why CRS-13 is missing in my chart.

With respect to FAA Compendium: it does show a typical planning pattern for cargo flights to ISS.
Looks like NASA consider 5 flights per year (3 Dragons + 2 Cygnuses) as normal transport volume.
But, of course, current demand determines the actual schedule.

In this year we already have 3 cargo flights:
Feb 19, 2017 - Dragon CRS-10
Apr 18, 2017 - Cygnus OA-7
Jun 03, 2017 - Dragon CRS-11

And 3 more are scheduled:
Aug 10, 2017 - Dragon CRS-12
Sep 12, 2017 - Cygnus OA-8
Nov 17, 2017 - Cygnus OA-9

Therefore it seems like CRS-13 will be in 2018...
Although I have not seen current ISS FPIP  :)

How long will there be a 4th crew member on the U.S. side? I expect NASA will want to show they can effectively increase the volume of science done at the ISS national lab with the additional crew. Dragon has mostly been carrying science recently and I expect that to continue with CRS-13. If they need the science on station, Dragon will fly in November.
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: cletus on 07/19/2017 06:21 pm
Elon Musk says work on Dragon propulsive landing, and thus implicitly Red Dragon, has been stopped (although leaves door open for restarting in the future).

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42615.msg1703921#msg1703921

(Source: ISS R&D 2017 Conference livestream (https://www.issconference.org/))
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: envy887 on 07/21/2017 01:37 pm
This should make ArabSat a NET Q1 2018 launch, I think

Potentially great news. STP-2 is NET April 30th, 2018, according to the USAF.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170721-lightsail-2-updates-prox-1-launch-dates.html (http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170721-lightsail-2-updates-prox-1-launch-dates.html)
Title: Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
Post by: gongora on 07/21/2017 08:18 pm
Moving on to Thread 5 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0)