NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
NASA Shuttle Specific Sections => Atlantis (Post STS-135, T&R) => Topic started by: rdale on 08/21/2006 06:12 pm
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Long range but looking pretty good for now from the NWS Spaceflight Group side... They don't have a chance of rain at launch, but do 90 minutes later (not sure I get that.)
However the USAF forecast isn't nearly the same - calls for Mostly Cloudy skies, 40% chance of rain Sunday afternoon, 30% probability of lightning. The local NWS office also has that in their outlook too...
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
1200 PM CDT MONDAY AUGUST 21 2006
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2029Z
DATE: 08/27/06
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT035 SCT120 SCT250 7 14010P15
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW050 7 30010P15
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 20005P07
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SKC 7 35015P25
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT035 SCT120 SCT250 7 14010P15
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 08/28/06 01Z TO 08/28/06 02Z
EDW SKC 7 22013P20
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
NOR ... TS
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 26/1200
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
GARNER/BAGGETT/ORAM
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Interesting report. Here's for clear skys.
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It's Florida on a late afternoon in late-August. The weather will be a real-time call, as many of you know... ;)
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If its anything like ours.. give it 15 mins and it will change...
Seems a little early for this level of detail
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Actually it's been incredibly dry in FL until just recently - that generalization doesn't always apply. And they are still in a minor drought...
As a matter of fact - the outlook for the next week calls for well below normal precip.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
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shuttlefan - 21/8/2006 1:14 PM
It's Florida on a late afternoon in late-August. The weather will be a real-time call, as many of you know... ;)
No doubt. I used to live in Central Florida and can vouch for the common afternoon T-storms in the summer (which seem to come out of nowhere).
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The first official launch weather forecast is now available: https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
The main concerns are anvil clouds from offshore T-storms and showers with 20 NM of the SLF. Probability of weather violations: 30%.
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DaveS - 24/8/2006 8:03 AM
The first official launch weather forecast is now available: https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
The main concerns are anvil clouds from offshore T-storms and showers with 20 NM of the SLF. Probability of weather violations: 30%.
Hmm...we'll have to wait and see what they get on Sunday afternoon, but that's a pretty optimistic forecast -- slightly less chance on Monday and Tuesday, too.
Maybe we'll get some details at the status briefing coming up.
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Looks like a large area of high pressure over the NE US will extend its influence all the way down to the Gulf States so no big cold fronts (that would wipe out opportunities) will be a factor, just afternoon pop-up storms...
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Any Ideas on the rate of pop-up Tshowers as the year progresses what impact larger systems have on that rate?
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Not sure I understand your question...
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rdale - 24/8/2006 4:50 PM
Not sure I understand your question...
Was wondering how the rate of Tshowers "poping_up" reduced (% of say mid summer) as the year moves towards winter etc.. and what the impact of larger weather systems had on the popup rate?
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The latest forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron is out:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch is now 40% for launch time on Sunday.
Also, a trough of low pressure over Central Florida could enhance offshore showers and
thunderstorms, and upper-level winds from the east may cause anvils from thunderstorms offshore over the Gulf
Stream to advect west toward the coast. Our primary concerns for launch are anvil clouds from
thunderstorms offshore and showers and thunderstorms within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF).
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There are fewer random storms in the winter than summer, but a cold front coming through is a good generator of storms.
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We have had heavy rain at the space center every afternoon for the last four days in a row.
It is forcast to do the same Saturday.
There might be a one day break in the pattern Sunday, as a patch of dryer air moves over Northern Florida.
Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be just like it has been for the last few days.
So it appears Sunday is the best shot at decent weather, but I would call it 50 - 50 at best.
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Actually Mon/Tue look much better than Sunday as the high sets in... I don't see any dry air moving in on Sunday?
Latest data looks even worse for Sunday, that's now in range of our short-term (and more detailed) computer output and it's got plenty of storms. But looking into next week I see much less precip on Monday (they have to break on Tuesday right?)
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Newest computer still looks bad for Sunday, pretty good for Monday.
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rdale - 26/8/2006 1:28 AM
Newest computer still looks bad for Sunday, pretty good for Monday.
Thanks, Rob...I thought I heard something in the description of the Sunday forecast at last evening's pre-launch briefing that sounded less optimistic. We should get an official update from the 45th in a little bit...
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rdale - 25/8/2006 10:49 PM
But looking into next week I see much less precip on Monday (they have to break on Tuesday right?)
They could try for three in a row, but if no launch the standdown would be a minimum of 96 hours. (I believe it was said that the 'break' in the four in five days plan allows for the cyro spheres for the ET load to be modestly resupplied.)
Depending on the weather forecasts for mid/late week, Tuesday might be an option...but here's hoping that Monday is equally good.
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Latest forecast is in...probability of WX violation on Sunday is now 60%:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
Sunday, the ridge over South Florida will migrate into Central Florida causing southerly flow over the area. A sea breeze will develop again in the late morning, and showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze over KSC beginning near the noon hour. The sea breeze will slowly progress to the west, and by launch time, will be west of KSC. Still, showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils will threaten the area within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility and 10 NM of the launch pad. Our primary concerns for launch is showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils.
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psloss - 26/8/2006 6:23 AM
Latest forecast is in...probability of WX violation on Sunday is now 60%:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
Sunday, the ridge over South Florida will migrate into Central Florida causing southerly flow over the area. A sea breeze will develop again in the late morning, and showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze over KSC beginning near the noon hour. The sea breeze will slowly progress to the west, and by launch time, will be west of KSC. Still, showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils will threaten the area within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility and 10 NM of the launch pad. Our primary concerns for launch is showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils.
i KNOW they're not launching on sunday.
a. it's still summer
b. afternoons=rain/anvil clouds/bad weather in general
just look at 121 and (theoretically) 114, as far as weather goes...
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spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 7:25 AM
i KNOW they're not launching on sunday.
a. it's still summer
b. afternoons=rain/anvil clouds/bad weather in general
just look at 121 and (theoretically) 114, as far as weather goes...
How do you explain the 121 launch, which was in the afternoon? (Or the other summer afternoon launches, for that matter?)
This is the time of the year that I've been at the Space Coast, and they do have spectacular weather in the afternoons -- but not at the same time or in the same place every day.
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psloss - 26/8/2006 6:28 AM
spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 7:25 AM
i KNOW they're not launching on sunday.
a. it's still summer
b. afternoons=rain/anvil clouds/bad weather in general
just look at 121 and (theoretically) 114, as far as weather goes...
How do you explain the 121 launch, which was in the afternoon? (Or the other summer afternoon launches, for that matter?)
This is the time of the year that I've been at the Space Coast, and they do have spectacular weather in the afternoons -- but not at the same time or in the same place every day.
well, true...but i was actually basing it on how the weather has been for the more recent lauches, but then again--there are coincidences...
but, what i meant for 121 was the scrubs prior to july 4, but you're right, though.
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spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 8:06 AM
well, true...but i was actually basing it on how the weather has been for the more recent lauches, but then again--there are coincidences...
but, what i meant for 121 was the scrubs prior to july 4, but you're right, though.
Yeah, but still not enough data to extrapolate with...for example, the first 121 attempt weather was more or less on the edge, while the second attempt weather was solidly bad -- and then the launch window weather the next two days was fairly dry and clear.
While I haven't been down there enough to see the Space Coast weather in all its glory, even as purely a spectator I don't think there have been enough recent shuttle launch attempts (only five in the last three and a half years, and only five summer attempts since 2001) to really do it justice.
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"i KNOW they're not launching on sunday. "
As I recall Monday and Tuesday are also part of summer ;> Fortunately there is much more to meteorology that copying what happened two months ago...
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Here's SMG's latest RTLS forecast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUGUST 26 2006
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2029Z
DATE: 08/27/06
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT100 SCT250 7 12009P14
TSRA WI 20NM
.
.
.
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... TS
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I am going to be keen to see the interaction between the sea breeze and the drier air that is working its way south:
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Uh oh?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_model.html
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Now BAM medium have a shape turn to the east.
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To do that it must weaken Ernie significantly over Cuba, which is likely given the terrain there. A weak Ernie poses zero threat by the time it crosses FL to get to Kennedy. As a matter of fact, most of those tracks don't give KSC much wind.
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rdale - 27/8/2006 10:11 PM
To do that it must weaken Ernie significantly over Cuba, which is likely given the terrain there. A weak Ernie poses zero threat by the time it crosses FL to get to Kennedy. As a matter of fact, most of those tracks don't give KSC much wind.
Thanks.
So the worse case senario would be where it follows an arc into the Gulf and back over Tampa through Central Florida?
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Here's more info
http://www.hurricanecity.com/
You really want to keep up with these updates.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/flashtest.htm ( http://www.hurricanecity.com/a.swf ) or http://www.hurricanecity.com/a.ram
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Correct.
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So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
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MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:09 AM
So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
A Monday was taken of the tables a long time ago. It's Tuesday now.
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Tuesday is good for launch then, seriously? If so, great. My day off work, and I can sit and relax watching the launch. :)
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MarkD - 27/8/2006 6:20 PM
Tuesday is good for launch then, seriously? If so, great. My day off work, and I can sit and relax watching the launch. :)
No, not necessarily -- there's a reasonable chance they're going to have to rollback to the VAB.
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The following from the NHC website that's posted with the graphics sent out with the Advisory Packages is a good read for those not familiar with how OFFICIAL hurricane forecasts (or better word for them "GUESSING", not to dis the work of NHC, but it's not an exact science is it?) work
{IMAGE GOES HERE}
This display shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.
NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the 3 days (solid white area). There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linke
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DaveS - 27/8/2006 6:12 PM
MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:09 AM
So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
A Monday was taken of the tables a long time ago. It's Tuesday now.
I would have wanted them to have Monday still open.. but I guess its too late...
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
Got to like the concept of WEAKENS ...
any change we can merge this thead with the delay thread?
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Avron - 28/8/2006 12:20 AM
DaveS - 27/8/2006 6:12 PM
MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:09 AM
So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
A Monday was taken of the tables a long time ago. It's Tuesday now.
I would have wanted them to have Monday still open.. but I guess its too late...
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
Got to like the concept of WEAKENS ...
any change we can merge this thead with the delay thread?
Means nothing, unless KSC was in Cuba.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=485&tstamp=200608
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"Got to like the concept of WEAKENS ..."
His strenght right now has nothing to do with his strength on Thursday.
"any change we can merge this thead with the delay thread?"
Makes no sense - might as well keep weather info here and new updates there.
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Interesting info from Baron Advanced Meteorological Services (they do some cutting-edge research on forecasting tropical systems in assocation with N. Carolina State Univ)
Assuming that Ernesto survives intact, in the short-term (next 24-hours), it should actually resume a more west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery of the Bermuda high, before beginning a possible NW'ly turn in advance of the next mid-latitude trough discussed above. Because of the significant uncertainty in (1) current organization; (2) near-term interaction with the mountains in Haiti; and (3) the longer term mid-latitude/sub-tropical high evolution, it is too early to place high-confidence in the VIPIRcast track forecast at this time.
Suffice it to say that at this point, Ernesto could (1) weaken significantly or even dissipate in the mountains of Hispaniola; (2) affect south or central Florida and recurve along the SE US coast; or even potentially be forced back into the Gulf of Mexico after flirting with South Florida if the mid-latitude trough does not strengthen as much as is currently progged.
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A hint of good news?
Image posted on Hurricane City Forums thanks for their help.
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/Snappy.jpg
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Found this also. Use google earth to keep up with the storm and tracks!
http://tropicalatlantic.com/current/models/all/05.shtml
http://tropicalatlantic.com/current/05.shtml
Thanks to TropicalAtlantic
http://tropicalatlantic.com/
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My 'meteorological' gut says they will call for rollback but not go through with it, which would allow us to hit the Sept7 cutoff.
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rdale - 27/8/2006 9:14 PM
My 'meteorological' gut says they will call for rollback but not go through with it, which would allow us to hit the Sept7 cutoff.
Is there any chance that the storm may slow down ?
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I hope it does or turns away.
I did hear by noon Tuesday a final call will be made on what to do.
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I don't think anything can happen overnight that'll change the outlook dramatically enough.
MarkD - check the news thread or the link to the news conference that just happened. They will decide on a rollback at 7am tomorrow, if they do they have 3 chances up til noon on Tuesday to reverse. The more they shut down, the more work to do on restarting.
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Gang we can speculate til the cows come home. The MMT's obviously trying to hold out on a decision as late as possible to see what Ernesto is going to do in the coming hours. Have no doubt though that they are simply not going to risk damage to Atlantis -- there would have to be a dramatic change in the strenght and/or direction of the storm in order to proceed with the count.
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I know it's been asked, but when is the best to give another shot at launch? Can they still make a September launch after Expedition 14 arrives?
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No - check the news thread. This is weather...
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More good news!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=485&tstamp=200608
Ernesto is has been clobbering Hispanolia all morning with tropical storm force winds and torrential rains. But now, the island has bitten back. Ernesto is struggling to hold his eye together, thanks to the mountainous terrain on the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. The 1:10pm and 3pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye reports found a surface pressure estimated at 1007 mb, a big increase from this morning's 995 mb. Moreover, the eye was substantially tilted, with the calm at the surface about 25 miles south of the calm at the 10,000 foot flight level. The plane could find maximum winds of only 35 mph during that 2-hour period, so Ernesto will probably be downgraded to a tropical storm with the 5pm advisory. The center of the storm is just south of some very mountainous terrain, and this is significantly disrupting Ernesto. The upper level outflow still looks strong, wind shear is weak, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) is still in place, so Ernesto will no doubt reorganize tonight once he moves away from Haiti. However, given Ernesto's small size and the difficultly he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane.
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That's an old report.
"I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane."
Which it is. So how is that "good news"? Did you watch the press conference? :(
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I dont trust any of the models at the moment so I can just hope this continued disorganization can continue and maybe it drifts away.
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Very good news on the latest advisory... NHC has it coming onshore west of Lake Oke Wed at 8pm as a 75kt low-end Cat1. So by the time it reached KSC, the system would have weakened a lot with its overland travels.
Still think they will call for a roll back though. I find it hard to believe anything dramatic will change with the 5am update. Just improves prospects of not going through with the process.
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Can anyone post the chances of weather disallowing launch for tues-fri?
Im just saying is there a chance to get a single try launch attempt for tuesday? then if we cant get it off we get it the hell back ASAP?
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Zachstar - 27/8/2006 11:30 PM
Can anyone post the chances of weather disallowing launch for tues-fri?
Im just saying is there a chance to get a single try launch attempt for tuesday? then if we cant get it off we get it the hell back ASAP?
there is no forecast at this time..
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
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https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/WeeklyFcst.pdf
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Thank you for that update.
All I can say it let us keep having hope people!
More Interesting Google Earth files to track these storms.
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/51227/an/0/page/0/vc/1
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showthreaded.php/Cat/0/Number/110283/an/0/page/0#110283
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I also recomend keeping up with the experts at http://www.hurricanecity.com/
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"Can anyone post the chances of weather disallowing launch for tues-fri?"
There's a hurricane approaching (or at least in the area.) So any forecast past about Tuesday has very low confidence, not worth making right now.
I'm sure most of this week is going to be out already - once they start preps for a rollback things have to be reversed.
- Rob
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More good news perhaps? Is this what was mentioned as a signifigant change in yesterday's meetings?
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Latest update from the NHC. Right now Ernesto is forecast to still have hurricane strength when it makes the closest approach to KSC. It's a 99.8% done deal: Atlantis will be rolled back to the VAB.
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DaveS - 28/8/2006 11:32 AM
Latest update from the NHC. Right now Ernesto is forecast to still have hurricane strength when it makes the closest approach to KSC. It's a 99.8% done deal: Atlantis will be rolled back to the VAB.
Noooooooooooooooooo!
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yep, I would think Atlantis will be on her way back later today. The other thing that could really cause trouble is that the current path takes the storm right over KSC. If she does too much damage then the window would be gone....and who knows for how long :(
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gordo - 28/8/2006 12:24 PM
yep, I would think Atlantis will be on her way back later today.
Not today. The earliest they could rollback is noon Tuesday.
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And just when you thought things couldn't get any worse.... how about the possibility that Ernesto's going to be a Cat 3 as it churns up the east coast of Florida...
NHC Discussion Comments...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT
AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD
POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I don't suppose the old "Marooned" launch-through-the-eye-of-the-hurricane contingency plan would work...
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So much for it moving to the left :(
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DaveS - 28/8/2006 5:28 AM
gordo - 28/8/2006 12:24 PM
yep, I would think Atlantis will be on her way back later today.
Not today. The earliest they could rollback is noon Tuesday.
well if they would rollback on tues., why can't they just launch tues.?
well, we're screwed nonetheless. so much for 115...
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Effective at 8:00 a.m. today the Center Director and 45 SW Commander have placed CCAFS, KSC and PAFB in HURCON IV. With the path and intensity of the storm, an announcement of HURCON III can be expected later today.
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spaceshuttle - 28/8/2006 7:31 AM
well if they would rollback on tues., why can't they just launch tues.?
well, we're screwed nonetheless. so much for 115...
Read the news thread... 1) Rollback has to start a noon Tues if it's going to happen, launch try is at 3:30pm. There's a disconnect.
2) If the Russians give us the rest of the Sept window, we can launch.
3) If rollback doesn't occur, we'll launch prior to this window closing.
It just seems strange to think it'll remain a Cat1 cane after traveling all the way up the FL peninsula. Don't give up yet.
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New Scientist say: "Forecasters say Ernesto could still strengthen to hurricane strength before making landfall in Florida – potentially becoming a Category 3 storm with winds raging from 178 to 209 kilometres per hour (111 to 130 miles per hour)."
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I think N.S. is just reposting NHC info. It will not be a Cat3 at KSC.
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Looking at the latest hurricane output, all of the computers have notably lower wind speeds than the NHC forecast, and the trends now show it traveling east of KSC which would bring even weaker winds to the space coast.
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Ernesto's way: New update 11 AM EDT
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Guys. Weather thread. Update thread. Two different threads.
Keep the info respective to each thread, because we'll only delete posts that are not relevant.
Thanks :)
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Rapoc - 28/8/2006 5:22 PM
Ernesto's way: New update 11 AM EDT
So it's more brushing Florida, rather than going through. Is that worse for KSC?
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better
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Was my info about the new track of Ernesto in the wrong thread?
I'm not a weather expert. But Ernesto moves more and more to the East. Perhaps Ernesto will drift to the Atlantic so a Rollback can prevented. But that's only a supposition. In the next few hours we will know more. It's all about the wind speed ...
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Rapoc - 28/8/2006 5:48 PM
Was my info about the new track of Ernesto in the wrong thread?
I'm not a weather expert. But Ernesto moves more and more to the East. Perhaps Ernesto will drift to the Atlantic so a Rollback can prevented. But that's only a supposition. In the next few hours we will know more. It's all about the wind speed ...
No, you were ok, I deleted the posts that were in the wrong place :)
Maybe this thing can keep on moving east??
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Chris Bergin - 28/8/2006 12:41 PM
So it's more brushing Florida, rather than going through. Is that worse for KSC?
The strongest winds in a hurricane are in the front-right quadrant, so with KSC on the "downwind" side winds would be notably weaker.
No need to repost straight NHC graphics here - we all get them from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and it just clutters up. Talk about it, but don't inline them...
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Chris Bergin - 28/8/2006 11:53 AM
Maybe this thing can keep on moving east??
Afriad not. It's being dragged out east by a trough, but that's about to move away and the prediction is it will edge west again. This is even worse as it'll pick up over water and than smack into the cape.
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Peter NASA answers the question better than me ... ;-)
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KSC and CCAFS have been placed in HURCON III
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Jim - 28/8/2006 6:05 PM
KSC and CCAFS have been placed in HURCON III
For those of us who don't know what these "HURCON" status are, can you - or anyone else - explain it? Thanks.
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Hurricane Conditions
Condition IV: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 72 hours. When a condition
IV is declared, implementation of procedures in the KSC Hurricane Plan will
begin. Designated personnel will continue with their normally assigned duties but
will also be available for duties associated with hurricane preparations.
Condition III: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 48 hours. During Condition
III, designated personnel will be relieved of their normal duties as required for
hurricane preparations and securing will begin. At the discretion of the Center
Director, non-essential personnel may be sent home at this time.
Condition II: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 24 hours. When Condition II
is declared, the Ride-Out Crew who are designated to remain at KSC in critical
facilities during the hurricane shall be notified of responsibility.
Condition I: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 12 hours. Securing of all
facilities should be completed during this time. In Condition I, all ingress and
egress to KSC shall cease at a time determined by the KSC Center Director. All
gates will be closed and the Hurricane Ride-Out crew will be on station until the
“all clear” is given.
Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Storm Surge
Category 1 74-95 mph 4-5 feet
Category 2 96-110 mph 6-8 feet
Category 3 111-130 mph 9-12 feet
Category 4 131-155 mph 13-19 feet
Category 5 greater than 155 mph greater than 19 feet
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It may move a lot more north and I hope turn more to the right... that's the trend we have seen thus far...
"mid-tropospheric high pressure
system over the southeastern United States will shift
east-southeastward during the next couple of days as a trough moves
in from the northwest. This would result in a northward turn of
Ernesto. "
ref:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200605.disc.html
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Peter NASA - 28/8/2006 12:55 PM
Chris Bergin - 28/8/2006 11:53 AM
Maybe this thing can keep on moving east??
Afriad not. It's being dragged out east by a trough, but that's about to move away and the prediction is it will edge west again. This is even worse as it'll pick up over water and than smack into the cape.
A majority of the guidance still suggests a more eastward track is necessary... I don't see any chance this will "smack" KSC, nor does any track have that happening. It'd have to curve east then recurve northwest to do so and that's just not an option...
He has weakened more with the 18Z update as expected, interesting to look at Debby which took a very similar path in 2000 and died before leaving Cuba. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/DEBBY_graphics.html
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Avron - 28/8/2006 1:46 PM
It may move a lot more north and I hope turn more to the right... that's the trend we have seen thus far...
Let's try not to repost NHC bulletins, I'm sure that anyone interested enough to read this thread knows to read them already from NHC's website...
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rdale - 28/8/2006 1:48 PM
Avron - 28/8/2006 1:46 PM
It may move a lot more north and I hope turn more to the right... that's the trend we have seen thus far...
Let's try not to repost NHC bulletins, I'm sure that anyone interested enough to read this thread knows to read them already from NHC's website...
With all due respect Sir...
I quoted only the section that backed up my statement and provided a link so as to provide a reference to the quote..
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Gotcha - I didn't see any meteorology in your comment that added to the NHC discussion.
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Got this from a guy I worked with at Purdue:
Ernesto is a good example. I noticed an area of high shear in the GFS forecast over the northern Caribbean for Sunday. I thought its likely hurricane Ernesto might get sheared back to tropical storm status but the TPC stuck to its forecast of it intensifying to a strong cat 2 storm by Tuesday despite the shear and moving over Jamaica and Cuba.
The latest forecast shows rapid intensification from its 35 knot winds turning into a near cat 2 storm as it hits eastern Florida early Wednesday. I'm not sure this is realistic in two ways. First, the current path is almost due north and it would have to veer 45 degrees to the NW to hit Florida. OK, there is a weak ridge to the north that could deflect it west. But it would be unlikely to intensify that quickly given that the next 24 hours would be spent in contact with Cuba.
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rdale, is my analysis of that info correct in that basically what we will see is weak Cat 1/tropical storm with the west side of the system just grazing KSC? I suppose that other than a complete swing out to sea, or disintegration, that would be the most "ideal" scenario. :(
James
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Radioheaded - 28/8/2006 3:14 PM
rdale, is my analysis of that info correct in that basically what we will see is weak Cat 1/tropical storm with the west side of the system just grazing KSC? I suppose that other than a complete swing out to sea, or disintegration, that would be the most "ideal" scenario. :(
James
NASA would never have gotten it that wrong, if that was the case, I feel.
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Stowbridge - 28/8/2006 5:13 PM NASA would never have gotten it that wrong, if that was the case, I feel.
I would tend to agree with that. However I don't think they would take any kind of chance with a tropical system, as unpredictable as they can be. That being said, if the projected path as of the 5pm update is correct, it would be a moot point anyway. :(
James
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"NASA would never have gotten it that wrong, if that was the case, I feel."
NASA doesn't do any tropical weather forecasting, everything they use comes from the National Hurricane Center.
The path of the storm isn't able to be pinned down other that to say it looks like it'll come up Florida. The question is the intensity, and if the latest NHC bulletin were to come true there would likely be no issue with winds on the pad.
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rdale - 28/8/2006 4:44 PM
The question is the intensity, and if the latest NHC bulletin were to come true there would likely be no issue with winds on the pad.
I don't understand how you come to that conclusion. The 5pm track show it is back to the east a bit and on a course to the Cape.
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Sphereion - 28/8/2006 5:48 PM
I don't understand how you come to that conclusion. The 5pm track show it is back to the east a bit and on a course to the Cape.
Course is on track for KSC but winds are not forecast to be very strong at all. Just a 20% chance that he'll have 50kt winds at that point. And to be honest, I still don't think he'll be much when he leaves Cuba. Still looks incredibly disorganized.
Scotty - 25/8/2006 10:24 PM
There might be a one day break in the pattern Sunday, as a patch of dryer air moves over Northern Florida.
Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be just like it has been for the last few days.
Needless to say - today was stinking beautiful...
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Ernesto looks HORRIBLE right now, very difficult for me to find the center, but from what I can pick up it appears to still be over land and has moved almost due west. That would be wonderful news if it continues.
If you look on a satellite map and see most of the activity off eastern Cuba - that's correct. And it it not Ernesto. That's a nice batch of thunderstorm with some gusty winds (33mph gust recorded last hour.) Reported winds around Ernie are running around 10-15mph.
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rdale - 29/8/2006 1:37 AM
Ernesto looks HORRIBLE right now, very difficult for me to find the center, but from what I can pick up it appears to still be over land and has moved almost due west. That would be wonderful news if it continues.
If you look on a satellite map and see most of the activity off eastern Cuba - that's correct. And it it not Ernesto. That's a nice batch of thunderstorm with some gusty winds (33mph gust recorded last hour.) Reported winds around Ernie are running around 10-15mph.
Let me just get this correct: You're saying Ernesto is in the process of breaking up?? :o If that is what you're saysing, then it seems like the situation just took a 180° turn for the better!
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The NOAA/NHS 8 o'clock track shows Ernesto staying a Tropical Storm over Florida, but exiting the state over Merritt Island. They say it still is pretty beefy, not a 15mph bunch of thunderstorms and we are in fact under a Hurrican Watch here on the island. No evacuation orders yet, but I have replenished my gasoline and consummables awaiting the inevitable power outtage I will suffer.
More at 1100
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Given I'm from a country where the weather makes the news when there's a "strong breeze" :) I find it impossible to work this one out, so keep the updates coming.
Had a look at a "specialised weather forum" and I've never seen such a varying swing of opinion on this storm.
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EDIT: Google Earth Tracks
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Once again, all this proves is the lack of accuracy in predicting what tropical systems are going to do without a major weather player to influence them...i.e. a strong southeasterly diving cold front or a locked-in Bermuda High. And this one is going play havoc with tourism dollars along the coasts from Virginia south for the third biggest weekend of the season...and that's on top of the potential collateral damage we could see from rain flooding...not that we don't need it during this dry summer all throughout the southeast.
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8pm.
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"Let me just get this correct: You're saying Ernesto is in the process of breaking up?"
I'm saying there is very little convection associated with Ernie. Peak winds reported just 25 miles west of the center were 8mph last hour.
"The tracks are finally cleaning up a horrible job for this stop thats for sure."
I don't understand that sentence at all...
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Typo I was in a rush posting that.
Note to self: Post slower in the future.
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Center just passed north of MUCM (Camaguey Airport in central Cuba) and winds are now maxing out at 5mph out of the south after being northerly at 8pm EDT and calm at 10pm EDT. Very difficult for me to see a way this gains any notable strength at all before (if?) reaching southern FL, and if it's not at least a full Cat1 (probably needs to be a 2) when it comes onshore it won't be any concern at all for KSC.
Sticking with my "no rollback" prediction from yesterday...
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Rob
The models keep shifiting east west etc.. Had a quick look at the history of storms within 300 miles of the current location and I note that most go west, with only the 1885 storm going up the east cost of FL.. based on what is happening, with the data in hand.. if the storm heads west it will spend the maximun time over Cuba, and based on the current disorganized nature.. what is the likelyhood (Pct) of the storm breaking up berfore it hits the water again?
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rdale - 29/8/2006 4:49 AM
Sticking with my "no rollback" prediction from yesterday...
Meanwhile, engineers keep turning up at the pad as rollback preps finalise for a move in a matter of eight hours time.
Something's gotta give.
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Do we have the rollback rules.. like x prop of y wind in z time?
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And to make things clear - Ernesto is _not_ the impressive looking batch of storms over eastern Cuba. It's the mini-red blob in east-central Cuba.
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Avron - 29/8/2006 12:12 AM
Do we have the rollback rules.. like x prop of y wind in z time?
Can't have 40kt winds while in transit, it didn't sound like they have specific percentages.
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Ernesto might look mighty puny coming off the Cuban coast, but it has plenty of good conditions and warm waters to re-intensify before encountering Florida.
KSC might end up 'dodging the bullet', but we have to remember that in the time frames needed for decision-making and execution, the folks at NASA really didn't have much of a choice about doing their best to protect the Shuttle hardware.
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They're taking another internal look at the projections:
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FLA Today has the wind numbers from the briefing that the launch managers were given. By the time TS Ernesto reaches KSC it is forecast to to have wind speeds with 57 mph sustained and gusts up to 69 mph and it is weaking. Rules calls for the shuttle to be roll backed if wind speeds are forecast to reach 79 mph, so it will be a close call.
Forecasters are however cautioning that Ernesto could become slightly more powerful once it enters warm Florida waters: http://www.floridatoday.com/floridatoday/blogs/spaceteam/2006/08/ernesto-forecast-better-but-still.html
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"Ernesto reaches KSC it is forecast to to have wind speeds with 57 mph sustained and gusts up to 69 mph and it is weaking."
We've all seen how good NHC has done with this one - forecast to have been a Cat 3 hurricane at this point... My bet is the highest wind we see when it moves onshore will be in the 30-40mph range, and KSC will get nothing more than 20-30mph winds. Looks like the bigger risk will be storms this evening when it's being moved.
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rdale - 29/8/2006 3:22 PM
"Ernesto reaches KSC it is forecast to to have wind speeds with 57 mph sustained and gusts up to 69 mph and it is weaking."
We've all seen how good NHC has done with this one - forecast to have been a Cat 3 hurricane at this point... My bet is the highest wind we see when it moves onshore will be in the 30-40mph range, and KSC will get nothing more than 20-30mph winds. Looks like the bigger risk will be storms this evening when it's being moved.
OK. Just as alittle note: They haven't started the jacking ops yet.
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Someone is a little worried!
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11a has 23.3/79.5 but Key West radar seems to clearly show that at 79.8
Either way, "tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles from the center." MUVR is 80 miles from the center reporting a 9mph wind. MUCC 95 miles southeast has a 12mph wind.
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Sat now shows, I assume a more organized storm... but why are the winds 80 miles out so low?
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more preps...
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"I assume a more organized storm"
No, right now it's a big blob of thunderstorms. Not a very good rotation to the system as a whole.
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Just thought I post the real fears behind the decision to rollback Atlantis to the VAB: Flying debris. If something decides to come loose it could hit either SRBs or the more fragile External Tank.
We all saw what the 2004 hurricanes did to the VAB and all the vehicles parked close to it. Imagine a debris just half the size of those side-panels on the VAB hitting the ET. Not a good scenario if you aim to reduce the debirs coming of the ET right?
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"Imagine a debris just half the size of those side-panels on the VAB hitting the ET."
Not at all a valid comparison. Even using the worse-case scenario, Ernesto won't even be closely the same as the storms that damaged the VAB.
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Something I may have missed/or it got lost in the run up to the rollback: Anyone know if there was a violation of the launch criteria during the windows Sunday or Monday?
IF...YES...IF we hadn't seen the lightning strike, would STS-115 be into Flight Day 2 or 3 right now? Just wondering...
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Sunday - yes. Monday - no.
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Whats the winds speeds off the Keys now..???
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I think Rob's called this right throughout.
I've been sending some "stay safe" comments on some e-mails to people at KSC and I'm getting "No need, this will only be a bit of a windy storm and some rain. Really nothing to be at all concerned about."
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Chris Bergin - 29/8/2006 2:18 PM
I think Rob's called this right throughout.
I've been sending some "stay safe" comments on some e-mails to people at KSC and I'm getting "No need, this will only be a bit of a windy storm and some rain. Really nothing to be at all concerned about."
Yip, he got it right I think.. based on the overall prediction, worst case, no pad rules would be violated:
initial 29/1500z 23.3n 79.5w 40 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 24.4n 80.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 30/1200z 26.3n 81.2w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 81.1w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1200z 30.9n 80.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 01/1200z 36.0n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/1200z 39.5n 79.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 03/1200z 43.0n 80.0w 25 kt...extratropical
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200605.disc.html
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Chris Bergin - 29/8/2006 2:18 PM
I think Rob's called this right throughout.
I've been sending some "stay safe" comments on some e-mails to people at KSC and I'm getting "No need, this will only be a bit of a windy storm and some rain. Really nothing to be at all concerned about."
Agree for our homes and ourselves but we aren't uninsured flight hardware
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Avron - 29/8/2006 1:35 PM
Whats the winds speeds off the Keys now..???
Marathon is the closest station, about 60 miles from the center (well within the tropical storm force area according to the 2pm report) and instead of the sustained 39mph winds that NHC says are out there -- observation is 20mph.
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rdale - 29/8/2006 2:42 PM
Avron - 29/8/2006 1:35 PM
Whats the winds speeds off the Keys now..???
Marathon is the closest station, about 60 miles from the center (well within the tropical storm force area according to the 2pm report) and instead of the sustained 39mph winds that NHC says are out there -- observation is 20mph.
Ok.. very simple new 'Avron rule of thumb' it will be 50% of that value predicted at KSC.. say 30kts .. hell thats a joke.. and still the move to the VAB...
Eh.. looking at the radar.. it moving west ...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_n0z.html?extraprod=n0z
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Really want to keep two seperate threads on news and weather.
DaveS: According to FLA Today, NASA has reassesed the TS Ernesto forecasts and have determined that conditions at KSC is not going to be as bad as initially thought!
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Computer has 60% + chance of storms Sun-Tuesday, PAFB forecasters however only have 30% chance. I probably won't get a chance to look in detail until late tonight, any guesstimate of the launch times those days? These look like typical afternoon storms, so if it's closer to lunchtime than Sunday's dinnertime we might be fine...
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KSC is closing as of 2nd shift tonite
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Repost from earlier and on other threads, but good to have handy.
Near-realtime weather resources of interest:
Hurricane Hunter page; data in code, but with tutorals to explain it:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Miami radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Melbourne radar, (closest to the Cape):
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb
Key West radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=byx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
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Radar shows a move to the north a bit... where can I find the current winds in South Florida?
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Fort Lauderdale - E 33 km/h
Marathon - N 22 km/h
Miami -E 43 km/h
Key West - N 20 km/h
Key Largo -N 22 km/h
Islamorada - N 22 km/h
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The hurricane watch has just been lifted for all of Florida, yet remains in effect for the coastal region of Georgia and the Carolinas.
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Rob you called it...
"at 8 PM EDT...0000z...all hurricane watches for Florida are
discontinued."
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Aaaand... Ernesto is now downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Expected to regain Tropical Storm status over the Atlantic but basically it's finished with Florida.
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Avron - 29/8/2006 8:14 PM
Rob you called it...
"at 8 PM EDT...0000z...all hurricane watches for Florida are
discontinued."
Imagine if this was now the case of Atlantis being in the VAB!
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Martin FL - 30/8/2006 1:46 PM
Avron - 29/8/2006 8:14 PM
Rob you called it...
"at 8 PM EDT...0000z...all hurricane watches for Florida are
discontinued."
Imagine if this was now the case of Atlantis being in the VAB!
And that it why I posted that it was a big error to move the STS within 10 mins of the start yesterday.. ... They broke the rules... if the rule says 70 kts predicted, it means just that...
but back to the weather and a question for Rob...
If this EH.. storm.. moves back over water, will KSC feel any strengthening in the winds it has now or will it take some time to strengthen without a change to KSC, as it should have cleared the area before strengthing??
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I'd doubt it'd ever strengthen up to the 70kts, but even if so it would be WELL past KSC...
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NOAA forecasts (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150953.shtml?tswind120) of Ernesto show little chance of more tropical-storm-strength winds in Florida, although the track of Ernesto is forecast as pretty well straight over KSC.
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I don't think any tropical storm force winds have been reported that I can find.
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I could believe that. Although the NOAA wind history (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204641.shtml?swath) does seem to show some tropical storm winds blew in the southernmost counties of Florida, the graphic does warn that the winds vary from place to place around the storm and not all indicated locations will have experienced the same level of wind force.
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Joffan - 30/8/2006 5:44 PM
I could believe that. Although the NOAA wind history (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204641.shtml?swath) does seem to show some tropical storm winds blew in the southernmost counties of Florida, the graphic does warn that the winds vary from place to place around the storm and not all indicated locations will have experienced the same level of wind force.
well now as the storm moves out into the Atlantic just off the Cape.. we have winds of 22 MPS max that I can see reported from stations... I am sure that the local Thunderstorm would be higher in windspeed.. but KSC takes the day off...
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MPS???? wow hehehe I would say thats a typo Avron lol pretty sure you meant MPH. There are some activities that are said to be starting up at 2 a.m. tonight, so rain rain go away and concern us not for the next 20 days :)
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Of course if he meant 22 metres per second, that's roughly 50mph so a respectable blow...
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Looks like the circulation center just passing off (over) the Cape...
(sorry... had a nice RADAR gif of this saved... but was 295k... and over the 100k limit to attach)
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Joffan - 30/8/2006 10:03 PM
Of course if he meant 22 metres per second, that's roughly 50mph so a respectable blow...
But he didn't - so that's not.
Max sustained winds at the Shuttle Landing Facility were 10mph with a gust to 18mph.
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astrobrian - 30/8/2006 9:37 PM
MPS???? wow hehehe I would say thats a typo Avron lol pretty sure you meant MPH. There are some activities that are said to be starting up at 2 a.m. tonight, so rain rain go away and concern us not for the next 20 days :)
Its a metric conversion thing...;) 22 Miles per sec.. she would be launched.. crew or not...
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yes miles not meters hehe one way or another we'll get her up there ;)
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Now lets all say goodbye ... rain an all..
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Avron - 30/8/2006 10:26 PM
Now lets all say goodbye ... rain an all..
Not quite. The center is about 20 miles due south of the VAB moving north/northeast. Still more rain to come.
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rdale - 30/8/2006 10:32 PM
Avron - 30/8/2006 10:26 PM
Now lets all say goodbye ... rain an all..
Not quite. The center is about 20 miles due south of the VAB moving north/northeast. Still more rain to come.
How do you track that real time?.. and can the center be identified, it is it a lot more organized?
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This is the best I can find.. I not that its not 11PM yet...
"AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST.
THIS POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/302346.shtml
I also note that I may be able to see this terror when it gets up here Sat..
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That does appear to be the 'main' circulation north of KSC, looks like a secondary one is now just WSW. There's no real organization with him.
To track now you simply watch weather radar, best app for that is GRLevel 3 (http://grlevelx.com but it's down for a server move today)
You can also get it free at http://weather.gov
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Here's a link to a nice RADAR loop around the Cape. It's a real time... so if you're looking at this tomorrow... you'll see nothing.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB&lat=28.21548462&lon=-80.68679810&label=Melbourne%2C+FL&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=410¢ery=238&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.614&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1
I saved an animated gif showing the circulation center over the Cape an hour ago... but it was 295k and over the 100k upload limit (and I don't know how to resize an animated gif). Anyway, the center is really only discernable by watching the motions of the precip bands.
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Seen bigger storms roll through here in the spring time ;) truly gald they didn't lock her up in the VAB seeing that radar loop