NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
International Space Flight (ESA, Russia, China and others) => Russian Launchers - Soyuz, Progress and Uncrewed => Topic started by: Rebel44 on 12/01/2015 05:04 pm
-
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/roscosmos-10-year-budget-cut-for-third-time/551337.html
With only 1.5 trillion rubles ($22.5 billion) for 10 years, it looks like Russia wont be doing much in space, anytime soon.
We may bitch about insufficient funding for NASA and ESA, but even accounting for lower wages, Russian space program is really screwed (IMO) with such budget.
-
With the entire Russian space industry basically put on austerity program for foreseeable future, i bet there is a lot of top talent there looking for other venues - if it was possible to move.
-
It's such a shame. The Russians have (or at least had) so much fantastic technology that they're not able use, and humanity's space ambitions are poorer for it.
-
With just 2.25b$ a year (minus inflation over 10 years and inflation in Russia was 15% per year the last year!) we will be lucky if Russia still has a manned space program in the year 2025. Assuming a constant nominal spending rate, the budget will effectively be only 870M$ in 10 years assuming an annual inflation of 10%.
-
With just 2.25b$ a year (minus inflation over 10 years and inflation in Russia was 15% per year the last year!) we will be lucky if Russia still has a manned space program in the year 2025. Assuming a constant nominal spending rate, the budget will effectively be only 870M$ in 10 years assuming an annual inflation of 10%.
Yep, with that kind of money their space program will be limited to press statements....
:'(
-
Perhaps if the price of oil could just rise back above $100/barrel and stay there for the next decade, this could be reversed. Otherwise it is a truly depressing situation.
-
Perhaps if the price of oil could just rise back above $100/barrel and stay there for the next decade, this could be reversed. Otherwise it is a truly depressing situation.
I would prefer oil at $40, or lower, while I am saving for Tesla Model 3....
Russia can save its space program by redirecting some money from its military (which will never happen).
-
And yet, the Russians regularly fly humans into orbit, which no other space agency does. That will change eventually, but it does show the wisdom of slowly improving an existing design instead of always starting from scratch.
-
not going to happen. Russia is too much focused in showing to the world it is claiming back its empire (in fact, it is only preventing further collapse, but whatever) to spend into space programmes.
And, after all, the majority of Russian people is glad to exchange short term budget cuts with long term visions of bases on the moon, space elevators, mars landings, etc. After all, space is first and foremost about visions. If you are so lucky to have a people for which visions are just enough, why bother spending on rockets when you can spend on tanks?
-
I know its hard but, lets try and make the effort: keep this on subject of RSA budget and implications to space related topics, not oil prices or global politics. Otherwise, there is a section here for politics.
-
well, you are right on the form, but not on the substance: global politics and especially collapse in oil prices are a fundamental part of the equation and likely the driver of the cut. We can keep them out of the discussion if so you wish, but then we will have not a lot to discuss either than saying "look, they cut the budget, pity".
-
If the Roscosmos budget is that constrained, would they try for more space tourist launches aboard Soyuz to generate income? And how would this affect post-ISS station plans?
-
And yet, the Russians regularly fly humans into orbit, which no other space agency does. That will change eventually, but it does show the wisdom of slowly improving an existing design instead of always starting from scratch.
A good point, but that strategy only works for so long. Like just two more years.
For instance instead of resting on their laurels they could have been incrementally upgrading their systems to continue to be on the leading edge. I know they have been making some improvements, but they are very minor compared to how long the Soyuz vehicle has been around. The crew vehicles from Boeing and SpaceX will be significant improvements on the Soyuz, and will put Russia behind - and Russia recognizes that, but they don't have a budget that allows them to fix that.
The other part is how their government is perceived, and how that affects their ability to leverage their great capabilities. Because Putin is viewed as a bully internationally, and he has done nothing to create a business-friendly law system (not to mention what he has done to limit personal freedoms within Russia), Russia has not been able to export or partner with others in order to expand on the advantages they have had in the aerospace sector, and specifically in space hardware. In essence, they squandered the opportunities they had at the end of the Cold War.
I hope a tipping point is not near for the Russian space industry...
-
well, you are right on the form, but not on the substance: global politics and especially collapse in oil prices are a fundamental part of the equation and likely the driver of the cut. We can keep them out of the discussion if so you wish, but then we will have not a lot to discuss either than saying "look, they cut the budget, pity".
Anyone who can read a newspaper probably understands why there is not a lot of money to go around there.
What isn't easy to find in a newspaper is informed discussion on what the implications are. How and which organizations, facilities and programs are impacted by the severe cuts ?
Will ISS extension to 2024 survive ? MLM-Nauka ? How about ExoMars ? Spektr-RG ? Luna-Glob aka Luna-25/26 etc ?
-
Also what, if anything, will this mean for launches of the Angara rocket family? Will the schedule for the A5 replacing the Proton be rolled back further?
-
I know its hard but, lets try and make the effort: keep this on subject of RSA budget and implications to space related topics, not oil prices or global politics. Otherwise, there is a section here for politics.
cant find politics related subforum - link please?
-
I know its hard but, lets try and make the effort: keep this on subject of RSA budget and implications to space related topics, not oil prices or global politics. Otherwise, there is a section here for politics.
cant find politics related subforum - link please?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=44.0
That'll get you to the board. Policy is off topic for here.
Posting in policy/politics related threads is restricted to L2 members only, but it should work for you to read what is being said even if you're not L2.
This is just one more reason to support the site... L2 subscriptions are the primary source of site funding (all that bandwidth isn't free) and L2 members have access to a vast trove of truly awesome imagery, some great information that is not generally available, and a few sections like politics. Showing support for the site suggests being in tune with the site goals, which is why only L2 members get to post in the political sections.
I am sure I badly mangled this as usual. But I'm L2 for life, and love it.
-
Sounds like the cost of seats on Soyuz will be going up, up, up again.
Rides on Dragon and Starliner can't get here soon enough.
-
I'm not entirely sure how to contribute without, tangentially anyways, veering into politics/policy since both are inextricably linked to their Space Program. And indeed, that's part of the issue. While the US, for example, is seeing a burgeoning public / private space sector partnership, creating cost effective, innovative products/services, Russia has moved in the opposite direction by trying to reconsolidate its Space Industry under centralized Govt. control. This is the worst time to spread the suffocating blanket of bureaucracy over one of their most prized industries. If anything, they should be encouraging private competition and investing in their space industry. But judging from all the reports of systemic corruption, especially wrt the construction of their new space port, they need to worry about a lot more then budget cuts. It's a complex issue that has no easy fixes or assured outcomes. I do sincerely hope they somehow find their way in the years to come.
-
According to Russian press reports it took two meetings with Putin (one in Sochi on 12 November and another in the Kremlin on 26 November) to hammer out an agreement on the Federal Space Programme for 2016-2025, which, incidentally, is discussed in the thread http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36644.0
Some reports suggest the Ministry of Finance wanted the FSP 2016-2025 budget to be cut back to as little as 1 trillion rubles. If that is true, the 1.5 trillion budget may not even be such a bad deal. Still, it looks like the biggest victim of the budget cuts will be the manned programme. This was already evident during the 12 November Sochi meeting, when Putin didn't even mention Russia's plans to return to the Moon, emphasizing instead the need to upgrade the country's constellation of applications satellites.
The only realistic goals in the manned arena for the remainder of the decade are the launch of the (already manufactured) Node Module (UM) and the MLM science module. The launch of the Science and Power Module (NEM), which should make the ISS Russian segment independent from US power supply, has slipped to no earlier than 2019. It looks like they haven't even started cutting metal on that, apparently due to bureaucratic hassles between Roskosmos, RKK Energiya and TsNIIMash according to this recent Izvestiya article :
http://izvestia.ru/news/597846
Several press reports suggest that development of the Soyuz successor (PTK NP) and the Angara-A5V will be put on the backburner. See for instance :
http://kosmolenta.com/index.php/759-2015-11-26-fkp-hard-cut
http://tass.ru/kosmos/2479576
-
The Russian Federal Budget is 15.4 TR (trillion Rubles) for 2015.
http://sputniknews.com/business/20131202/185222691/Putin-Signs-Federal-Budget-for-2014-16.html
So, 0.15 TR per year is 0.97% of the Federal budget, which is more than double what NASA receives. Space still has a relative very high priority in Russia. I think the Moon landing by 2029 plans are out the window, but I believe Russia will still continue their crewed space program, probably by continuing to fly Soyuz to ISS.