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International Space Flight (ESA, Russia, China and others) => Russian Launchers - Soyuz, Progress and Uncrewed => Topic started by: Satori on 01/29/2015 10:39 am

Title: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 01/29/2015 10:39 am
MexSat-1 will be launched by a Proton-M/Briz-M on April 24, 2015.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 01/29/2015 03:15 pm
Tender from the Centre for Operation of Land-Based Space Infrastructure (TsENKI) for insurance to cover various launch sites; for preparation and launch of rockets «Proton», «Soyuz», «Zenit»:-
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/common-info.html?noticeId=1922237

Direct link to document, dated 29th December 2014:-
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/download/download.html?id=10741151

Quote
РКН: КА «Мекссат-1», РН «Протон-М»
Дата запуска: 2 кв. 2015
Страховая сумма (лимит ответственности) млн.руб.: 2 558,10
Страховая премия (максимальный тариф) млн.руб.: 17,9

Quote
Launch: satellite Mexsat-1, rocket Proton-M
Launch date: 2nd quarter of 2015
The sum insured (limit of liability), million ruble: 2 558,10
Insurance premium (maximum tariff), million ruble: 17,9
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 01/31/2015 07:15 am
Satellite: Mexsat-1

Operator:Secretaria de Communicaciones y Transportes México
Nation:Mexico
Contractors:Boeing Satellite Systems
Platform:BSS-702HP
Equipment:L-band, Ku-band transponders
Mass:5,325 kilogrammes (at launch), 3,200 kilogrammes (start of operation)
Service life:15 years
Launch vehicle:Proton-M 8К82КМ with improved energy-mass characteristics (phase 3) № 93554
Upper stage:Briz-M 14С43 with improved energy-mass characteristics (phase 3) № 99555
Fairing:15,255 millimetre 14С75 with improved energy-mass characteristics (phase 3)
Launch site:Baikonur 8П882К-4Ф (ПУ № 39)
Khrunichev I.L.S. contract:ILS-SC-1202-686 dated 1st March 2012

http://www.boeing.com/boeing/defense-space/space/bss/factsheets/702/mexsat/mexsat.page

With thanks to Skyrocket:-
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/mexsat-1.htm
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 04/01/2015 09:16 pm
Mission overview
http://www.ilslaunch.com/sites/default/files/Centenario%20Mission%20Overview.pdf
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Danderman on 04/01/2015 10:04 pm
April 29 – MexSat-1 – Proton-M/Briz-M – Baikonur, 200/39
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Adonis1 on 04/03/2015 06:50 pm
launch vehicle "Proton-M" and the upper stage "Breeze-M", for the launch of the Mexican satellite Communication «MexSat-1",  arrived yesterday to Baikonur Cosmodrome.

tsenki.com (http://www.tsenki.com/news/news_tsenki/?ELEMENT_ID=120129)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 04/06/2015 07:42 am
launch vehicle "Proton-M" and the upper stage "Breeze-M", for the launch of the Mexican satellite Communication «MexSat-1",  arrived yesterday to Baikonur Cosmodrome.

tsenki.com (http://www.tsenki.com/news/news_tsenki/?ELEMENT_ID=120129)

So they now deliver the Briz-M upper stage by train along with the Proton-M rocket? In the past they were flown in separately.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Artyom. on 04/09/2015 03:13 pm
Quote
Operations on Mexican MexSat-1 Communications Satellite Continue at Baikonur


Intensive pre-launch processing of Proton-M ILV with Breeze-M upper stage and the Mexican MexSat-1 communications satellite continues at Baikonur cosmodrome.

Last Friday, MexSat-1 spacecraft was delivered to the cosmodrome and on Saturday it was unloaded from the container.

Today, foreign experts supported by the teams of FSUE TsENKI division Yuzhny Space Center have started the autonomous tests of the satellite’s systems in the clean room of the assembly, integration, and test building of pad 92A-50 of the cosmodrome.

Proton-M ILV and Breeze-M upper stage, designed for this launch, are undergoing autonomous tests in the same assembly, integration, and test building.

The launch of Proton-M ILV with Breeze-M upper stage and the Mexican MexSat-1 communications satellite is scheduled for late April, 2015.

MexSat-1 (often referred to as MexSat Centenario in the Mexican press) is manufactured upon the order of the Mexican Ministry for Transport and Communications by the American Boeing Satellite Systems. It was built on the basis of the Boeing 702 HP platform, weighs about 5,4 tons and carries retransmission antennas of three ranges. The satellite will be placed into the geostationary orbit to the point of 113° W and provide communications in Mexico and the central part of South America. The satellite is expected to function in orbit for 15 years. The MexSat system is aimed at supplying Mexico’s state and security agencies with land-line and mobile satellite communications. The satellite will also be used to organize telemedical networks, distance education, alert, and communication in emergency situations.

Proton-M ILV and Breeze-M upper stage are manufactured by Moscow Khrunichev center.

As well as other commercial launches, the upcoming launch is provided by International Launch Services, joint Russian-American enterprise, possessing an exclusive right of commercial use of the Russian Proton heavy carrier rocket.

http://en.federalspace.ru/20425/
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/15/2015 03:40 am
I'm still looking for the launch time on April 29 of this one in vain. Anyone knows this?  :-\
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/15/2015 03:53 am
I'm still looking for the launch time on April 29 of this one in vain. Anyone knows this?  :-\

Hmm this press release from the Mexican Government (http://www.sct.gob.mx/despliega-noticias/article/listo-lanzamiento-de-satelite-centenario-el-29-de-abril-desde-kazajistan/) has this as both midnight Mexican time (from Mexico City I guess, which is UTC-5) and 13:00 in Baikonur (UTC+6), which is inconsistent. Which one is correct?
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: russianhalo117 on 04/15/2015 07:21 am
we should be correct because we are extremely rarely wrong in our info
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/15/2015 08:25 am
we should be correct because we are extremely rarely wrong in our info

Looks like the Baikonur time is the correct one - launch will be at 07:07 UTC.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: anik on 04/15/2015 08:42 am
Looks like the Baikonur time is the correct one - launch will be at 07:07 UTC

And the source of this information is...
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/15/2015 08:45 am
Looks like the Baikonur time is the correct one - launch will be at 07:07 UTC

And the source of this information is...

From yours truly  ;) : http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum14/topic14042/message1359200/#message1359200 (http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum14/topic14042/message1359200/#message1359200)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: input~2 on 04/20/2015 06:09 am
Ten things to know about Centenario (in Spanish)
http://www.cnnexpansion.com/tecnologia/2015/04/14/los-10-datos-del-satelite-mexicano-que-partira-a-fin-de-mes
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: input~2 on 04/25/2015 05:16 am
Launch postponed due to satellite technical verifications
http://www.invertia.com/noticias/mexico-pospone-lanzamiento-satelite-irregularidades-modelo-similar-3026702.htm
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Adonis1 on 04/27/2015 04:13 pm
Μexsat (Centenario) launch poster
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 04/27/2015 06:30 pm
PROTON LAUNCH OF CENTENARIO SATELLITE POSTPONED

BAIKONUR COSMODROME, Kazakhstan, April 27, 2015-The launch of a Proton launch vehicle with the Centenario satellite was postponed in order to investigate an anomalous condition discovered on another spacecraft and to re-confirm the flight worthiness of the Centenario satellite.


The vehicle and satellite remain in a safe configuration at the launch site.

The satellite was built by Boeing Satellite Systems International for the Mexican government’s Ministry of Communications and Transportation, the Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT).

For updated status on the Centenario mission, please check the ILS website, www.ilslaunch.com.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/29/2015 02:54 pm
Currently the team is looking at a new launch date of May 15-16. Boeing et al. will decide on whether processing operations can restart by tomorrow: http://tass.ru/kosmos/1939439
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/09/2015 01:40 pm
Some launch information about this mission from Khrunichev...
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Adonis1 on 05/10/2015 03:57 pm
launch of MexSat-1 (Centenario) 16 May - 08:47 Astana time ( 02:47 UTC)

http://www.kaztag.kz/news/detail.php?ID=366481&sphrase_id=41745
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/11/2015 01:42 pm
 

MEDIA ADVISORY:  ILS PROTON TO LAUNCH CENTENARIO

 

Payload:

Centenario Satellite
BSS-702HP GEM Platform
Separated spacecraft mass: 5325 kg

 

Launch Vehicle:                   

Proton M/Breeze M

705,000 kg (1,554,000 lb), including payload
58.2 m (191ft)

 

Launch Date:
May 16, 2015

                                                                                                                           

Launch Time:

11:47 Baikonur

08:47 Moscow

00:47 Mexico

05:47 GMT

01:47 EDT

 

Launch Site:                         

Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan
Launch Pad 39

 

Launch Customer:

The Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT), Mexico

 

Satellite Manufacturer:

Boeing Satellite Systems International, California, USA

 

Launch Vehicle Manufacturer:

Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center,

Moscow, Russia

 

Launch Services                 

Provider:       

International Launch Services, Virginia, USA

 

Satellite Use:

Weighing over 5.3 metric tons at lift-off, the Centenario satellite is a fourth generation Boeing

satellite to serve Mexico and the first 702HP GEM for Mexico.  Centenario will provide mobile

satellite services to support national security, civil and humanitarian efforts and will provide

disaster relief, emergency services, telemedicine, rural education, and government agency

operations The satellite carries a 22 meter L-band reflector that enables connectivity to

handheld terminals, complemented by a 2-meter Ku-band antenna. The Centenario satellite is

part of an end-to-end satellite communications system that provides 3G+ communications

services for voice, data, video and internet access to terminals on multiple

platforms. This next-generation satellite system for Mexico consists of three satellites, two

ground sitesand associated network operations. It is Mexico’s next-generation satellite

communications system.

 

Satellite Statistics:               

_L-band multi-spot beam flexible payload for Mobile Satellite Services (MSS)

_Planned orbital location:  113.1 degrees West longitude

_Anticipated service life:  15 years

 

Mission Profile:                   

The Proton M launch vehicle, utilizing a 5-burn Breeze M mission design, will lift off from Pad 39 at 13:07 local time  (2:07 am Mexico time, 7:07 am GMT) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, with the Centenario satellite on board. The first three stages of the Proton utilize a standard ascent profile to place the orbital unit (Breeze M upper stage and the Centenario satellite) into a sub-orbital trajectory. From this point in the mission, the Breeze M will perform planned mission maneuvers to advance the orbital unit first to a circular parking orbit, then to an intermediate orbit, followed by a transfer orbit, and finally to a geosynchronous transfer orbit. Separation of the Centenario satellite will occur approximately 9 hours, 13 minutes after liftoff.



Target Orbit at Separation:           

_Perigee: 4163

_Apogee: 35736 km

_Inclination: 23.0 degrees

 

Spacecraft Separation:       
Approximately 9 hours and 13 minutes after lift-off

 

ILS Mission Statistics:       

_2nd ILS Proton Launch in 2015

_89th ILS Proton Launch Overall

_1st SCT satellite launched on ILS Proton

_18th Boeing Satellite Launched on Proton

 

Live Broadcast:                   

 

LAUNCH – 16 May, 2015

Baikonur to Washington Eutelsat 10A will begin at 0100 Eastern/0500 GMT

Live test for Mexico will begin at 0100 Eastern/0500 GMT

Live Broadcast starting at 0130 Eastern/0530 GMT

Launch is scheduled for 01:47:39 Eastern/05:47:39 GMT

Launch Broadcast concludes at 0215 Eastern/00615 GMT

 

 

In Mexico, THE LAUNCH BROADCAST WILL BE SEEN ON THE FOLLOWING (HD)

 

Eutelsat 113WA / C101(F) (Formerly SatMex 6)

U/L; 5949.5, D/L 3724.5

Beam; C1

Pol; H uplink/V downlink             

9 MHz

DVB-S2 8PSK, MPEG 4 (H.264):

FEC:  3/4

Sym Rate:  7.5

Info Rate:  16.331

Pilot On

H.264 (MPEG 4)

Roll-Off 20%

 

The webcast of the Centenario mission can be seen at: http://centenario.imgondemand.com

 

Social Media: Follow us on Twitter (Twitter Tag: #Centenario) and “like” us on Facebook for mission updates.

 

More Information:   

Live streaming will begin approximately 15 minutes before lift-off.  General mission information and launch status updates are available at www.ilslaunch.com. You can also follow us on Twitter and “like” us on Facebook for mission updates.         
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Adonis1 on 05/11/2015 03:37 pm

Launch Date:
May 16, 2015
                                                                                                                         
Launch Time:

11:47 Baikonur

08:47 Moscow

00:47 Mexico

05:47 GMT

01:47 EDT

Launch Site:                         

Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan
Launch Pad 39

The Proton M launch vehicle, utilizing a 5-burn Breeze M mission design, will lift off from Pad 39 at 13:07 local time (2:07 am Mexico time, 7:07 am GMT) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, with the Centenario satellite on board. Tminutes after liftoff.   

finnaly what time it's the launch ?
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DaveS on 05/11/2015 03:49 pm

Launch Date:
May 16, 2015
                                                                                                                         
Launch Time:

11:47 Baikonur

08:47 Moscow

00:47 Mexico

05:47 GMT

01:47 EDT

Launch Site:                         

Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan
Launch Pad 39

The Proton M launch vehicle, utilizing a 5-burn Breeze M mission design, will lift off from Pad 39 at 13:07 local time (2:07 am Mexico time, 7:07 am GMT) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, with the Centenario satellite on board. Tminutes after liftoff.   

finnaly what time it's the launch ?
It says right there in the section of the press-release you have quoted.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/11/2015 03:51 pm

Launch Date:
May 16, 2015
                                                                                                                         
Launch Time:

11:47 Baikonur

08:47 Moscow

00:47 Mexico

05:47 GMT

01:47 EDT

Launch Site:                         

Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan
Launch Pad 39

The Proton M launch vehicle, utilizing a 5-burn Breeze M mission design, will lift off from Pad 39 at 13:07 local time (2:07 am Mexico time, 7:07 am GMT) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, with the Centenario satellite on board. Tminutes after liftoff.   

finnaly what time it's the launch ?

Must be the upper one since 07:07 UTC was the time for April 29.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Artyom. on 05/13/2015 04:28 pm
The roll-out to the launch pad is scheduled for tomorrow at 00:30 UTC.

http://www.federalspace.ru/21485/

Some information about the launch (in Russian):
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/13/2015 04:37 pm
Don't be surprised to see this launch slips 1-2 days later on - the rollout was 2 days late from the usual schedule (4 days from rollout to launch) and Roscosmos has listed this launch's time as "TBD" since yesterday.  :P
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Artyom. on 05/13/2015 04:44 pm
Roscosmos has listed this launch's time as "TBD" since yesterday.  :P
The launch is scheduled for May 16 at 05:47 UTC  ;) .

Quote
14 мая: 03:30-06:30 транспортирование РКН с ТЗП на СК
...
16 мая: 08:47 пуск РКН

http://www.federalspace.ru/21455/ (http://www.federalspace.ru/21455/):
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: PDJennings on 05/13/2015 04:55 pm
I realize that cyclogram is not a piece of fine art, but the upper stage icon looks more like a Fregat than a Briz.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/14/2015 08:32 pm
Launcher was taken to the launch pad today: http://www.khrunichev.ru/main.php?id=1&nid=3269 (in Russian)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Lewis007 on 05/15/2015 06:59 am
Some roll-out pix from the Roscosmos facebook page
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/15/2015 09:56 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvOsn1da1KA
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/15/2015 12:43 pm
Long serial number is 5116907974.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/15/2015 02:50 pm
Moved for live coverage!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: jacqmans on 05/15/2015 04:36 pm
Launch can be seen here:

http://centenario.imgondemand.com/

(Launch is scheduled for 01:47 EDT; 05:47 GMT on May 16th. Broadcast begins at 01:30 EDT; 05:30 GMT on May16th.)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: input~2 on 05/15/2015 06:33 pm
NOTAMs
K0696/15 -  ATS ROUTE SEGMENTS CLSD: 1.A113 TIROK-GISIR FM 25KM TO 70KM 2.B822 BETIK-LUGER FM 95KM TO 135KM SFC/UNL. 16 MAY 05:40 2015 UNTIL 16 MAY 06:10 2015. CREATED: 12 MAY 12:37 2015
P3222/15 -  RESTRICTED AREA ACT: UNR1238. GND - UNL, 16 0545-0645, 17-19 0530-0630, 16 MAY 05:45 2015 UNTIL 19 MAY 06:30 2015. CREATED: 09 MAY 11:22 2015
P3221/15 -  FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: A814 ARNUL - ADOBA, B206 ARNUL - AKTAS, G489 TELRU - AKTAS. SFC - UNL, 16 0545-0645, 17-19 0530-0630, 16 MAY 05:45 2015 UNTIL 19 MAY 06:30 2015. CREATED: 09 MAY 07:17 2015
A1818/15 -  THE RUSSIAN FEDERAL SPACE AGENCY HAS PLANNED A MISSILE LAUNCH. DEBRIS FROM THIS LAUNCH WILL FALL WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 2515N16000E  2600N16045E  2330N16335E  2245N16248E BACK TO THE POINT OF ORIGIN.  IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY ALL NON-PARTICIPATING AIR TRAFFIC ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE NOTAMED AREA.  IFR AIRCRAFT UNDER ATC JURISDICTION SHOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARANCE AROUND THE NOTAMED AREA. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0530-0700, 16 MAY 05:30 2015 UNTIL 19 MAY 07:00 2015. CREATED: 12 MAY 20:01 2015
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 03:50 am
We got a picture on the TV. From Tsenki

http://www.tsenki.com/broadcast/broadcast/
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 03:54 am
Lost the picture for a while there, but they seem to be back.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:03 am
The birds are pretty noisy.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:21 am
Base of vehicle.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:22 am
Getting some nice shots now.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:32 am
T-1 hour 15 minutes. Quite a few people hanging around.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:33 am
Access platform rollback has begun.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:37 am
Clear view of Proton.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:41 am
Gradually coming into view.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:44 am
Another view of the tower rollback.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:47 am
T-60 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:55 am
First stage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 04:57 am
T-50 minutes. Rollback complete.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:00 am
Pad starting to clear of personnel.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:02 am
View from the access tower.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:04 am
Pad cleared.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:07 am
T-40 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:08 am
Still one guy standing around!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Mark McCombs on 05/16/2015 05:10 am
Good vantage point there.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:12 am
I wonder what this person is doing there.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:17 am
T-30 minutes. A bunch of people had left the blockhouse previously.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:25 am
Nice view of PU-39 with the Proton-M.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:27 am
T-20 minutes. ILS coverage should be starting in three minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:31 am
ILS coverage has begun.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:31 am
Talking about MexSat.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:34 am
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:36 am
Weather looks good.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:37 am
T-10 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:37 am
T-10m ...all looks good for launch.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:38 am
T-9 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:39 am
T-8 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:40 am
T-7 minutes. ILS is showing launch simulation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:41 am
T-6 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:42 am
T-5 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:42 am
Five minutes for launch...
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:43 am
T-4 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:44 am
T-3 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 05:45 am
Morning chaps! ;D

Nice Proton history segment.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:45 am
T-2 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:46 am
Now its T-2 minutes!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:47 am
T-1 minute.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:48 am
LAUNCH!!!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:48 am
Liftoff!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 05:48 am
LAUNCH!!

Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 05:49 am
Straight to computer simulation
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:49 am
Empty pad.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 05:50 am
MaxQ - cloud cover means they have gone to CGI.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:50 am
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 05:50 am
Staging:

Nice visual of the second stage already firing before sep.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:50 am
T+2 minutes. First stage separation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:51 am
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:51 am
T+3 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 05:52 am
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:52 am
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 05:52 am
And no more video feed :(
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:53 am
T+4 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:53 am
Already taking care of the launch pad.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:54 am
T+6 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 05:54 am
Nothing like using helium balloons to keep the antenna afloat :)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:55 am
T+7 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:56 am
T+8 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:57 am
T+9 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 05:57 am
Hmm....something went wrong?  :-X
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 05:58 am
T+10 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 05:58 am
Oh no, not again!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 05:58 am
Yeah, sounds like they are filling in time. They said before that they have no conformation of 1-2 sep.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Mark McCombs on 05/16/2015 05:59 am
Thinking we should have some snippet of an update by now.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Mapperuo on 05/16/2015 05:59 am
The upperstage just swayed to the right then the satellite feed cut to 'Off Optimum situation'

EDIT: Was CGI graphics that moved, not the upperstage  >:(
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 06:00 am
Yeah, sounds like they are filling in time. They said before that they have no conformation of 1-2 sep.

I think it was later than that. I heard that one around the T+9 minutes mark....
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:00 am
T+12 minutes. Briz-M ignition should have occurred.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 06:01 am
Yeah, sounds like they are filling in time. They said before that they have no conformation of 1-2 sep.

I think it was later than that. I heard that one around the T+9 minutes mark....

Yeah looks like a loss of telemetry or some sort of a failure
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:01 am
T+13 minutes. Not getting all the telemetry, but other indications are that flight is good.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 06:02 am
Just said that they have lost telemetry but radar tracking looks like it is fine
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:02 am
T+14 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:03 am
T+15 minutes.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 06:03 am
No telemetry...
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:04 am
T+16 minutes. Briz-M shutdown should be now.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:05 am
I feel ILS will have a fate similar to Sea Launch pretty soon.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:06 am
Roscosmos confirms "Emergency Situation":

http://tass.ru/kosmos/1972945 (http://tass.ru/kosmos/1972945)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 06:07 am
RIA Novosti is reporting a problem with the third stage: http://ria.ru/space/20150516/1064825008.html
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 06:08 am
...and ILS still reporting nominal flight per radar tracking and NORAD data! Hmmm......

Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:08 am
ILS saying flight is still good but with no telemetry.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 06:09 am
Stream is going on with all is fine but they don't have any telemetry. Currently in comms blackout
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Astro_Zach on 05/16/2015 06:09 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDemm2gLYcI

Launch Video
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:10 am
ILS coverage is ending.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:11 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:11 am
End of ILS coverage.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 06:13 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Is there any chance that the third stage could be re-lit?
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:13 am
http://tass.ru/kosmos/1972945 (http://tass.ru/kosmos/1972945)

Quote
MOSCOW, May 16. / TASS /. During the flight, the carrier rocket "Proton-M", which was launched today from Baikonur at 08:47 MSK, there was an emergency situation. Told launch commentator, broadcast on the website of Roskosmos.
Abnormal situation has arisen at 08:56 MSK, a minute before the estimated time of separating the upper stage "Briz-M" and the Mexican communications spacecraft "MeksSat-1", which is planned to be put into orbit.
"There was an emergency. The report is over," - said the commentator.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Astro_Zach on 05/16/2015 06:13 am
At around 15 seconds... is this normal?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvpbWIQqIG8
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:14 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Is there any chance that the third stage could be re-lit?

You kidding me right?
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 06:15 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Is there any chance that the third stage could be re-lit?

You kidding me right?
Just seeing if there is any chance it could have survived
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Lars-J on 05/16/2015 06:15 am
At around 15 seconds... is this normal?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvpbWIQqIG8

Do you mean the dark smoke? Yes, that seems to occur during all Proton launches.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 06:15 am
Looks the problem occurred one minute before Briz-M separation.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 06:16 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.

I think that reporter is just hearing to the broadcast?

In any case this is weird because ILS DO have info on what's going on so if the engine does fail I doubt they won't have insight on that. Look at their last failed launch during the "Proton stages" (JCSAT-11 7 years ago) - it was immediately confirmed.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Astro_Zach on 05/16/2015 06:17 am
At around 15 seconds... is this normal?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvpbWIQqIG8

Do you mean the dark smoke? Yes, that seems to occur during all Proton launches.

Ah.. i am not up on Proton as i am other LV
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:17 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Is there any chance that the third stage could be re-lit?

You kidding me right?
Just seeing if there is any chance it could have survived

If the third stage shut down before its time, it did because of some problem. Some thing went kaboom in there. How can it be re-lit?
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DragonRoco on 05/16/2015 06:18 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Is there any chance that the third stage could be re-lit?

You kidding me right?
Just seeing if there is any chance it could have survived

If the third stage shut down before its time, it did because of some problem. Some thing went kaboom in there. How can it be re-lit?
Don't worry, going off the assumption that it didn't light between 2-3 sep, not a failure mid burn
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Mapperuo on 05/16/2015 06:18 am
Last minute of video from feed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnyrVO-sKcI
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: RLA on 05/16/2015 06:19 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

Its all over guys.
Almost exactly a year ago, a Proton launch who did carried Ekspress-AM4R failed because the third stage. Its creepy basically almost exactly a year after, now, a similarly situation makes this again failed launch for the Proton.

Sadly, if it is true.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:21 am
Perhaps the problem being reported was the telemetry loss being wrongly interpreted. In any case, if the launch was successful, the Briz-M burn is 1:07:33 after launch, or about 6:54 UTC.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: jcm on 05/16/2015 06:21 am
I am not convinced yet. The Russian reports are pessimistic, the ILS reports are optimistic, but I don't see any statement that convinces me anyone knows anything yet.  No telemetry is a bad sign, and I don't believe the tracking data
ILS say they are seeing is necessarily real, but I see 'off nominal situation', not definite statement of failure yet.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:23 am
https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb (https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb)

Quote
Telemetry indicates that the first burn of BrizM upper stage did start OK in today's #Proton launch. Waiting for confirmation of its status!

Quote
ILS: All available data including NORAD info indicates normal flight for #Proton with #MexSat1!

Quote
Telemetry display for #Proton launch with #MexSat1 satellite is currently lacking all live data after liftoff.

Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Lars-J on 05/16/2015 06:24 am
https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb (https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb)

Quote
ILS: All available data including NORAD info indicates normal flight for #Proton with #MexSat1!

Is ILS really hooked into live NORAD radar data? I'm skeptical.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:25 am
http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017 (http://www.interfax.ru/world/442017)

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - During the launch of the Mexican communications satellite MexSat-1 with the help of a rocket "Proton-M" on the 500 seconds of flight there was an emergency situation, the speaker said when reporting on start-up.

During the reporting noted that the first and second stages of the rocket worked normally, the failure occurred during the third stage. Reporting on the start-up has been interrupted.

According to "Interfax" a source in the space industry, while the third stage outage occurs dvgiteley. Possible impact area is stages in the Chita region.

Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: A12 on 05/16/2015 06:25 am

Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb  ·  1m 1 minute ago

Interfax: #Proton's 3rd stage failed in #MexSat1 mission, possibly crashing in Chita Region of Russia.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: jamesh9000 on 05/16/2015 06:26 am
What the hell, some reports are saying everythings fine, some that its crashed. What's going on?
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: RLA on 05/16/2015 06:29 am
What the hell, some reports are saying everythings fine, some that its crashed. What's going on?
A lot of confusion. ILS says they got sources everything still goes well, Russian media says the third stage failed (again in a year time) and we all are confused who to believe because we got no direct proof yet what is going on, especially with no telemetry.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Appable on 05/16/2015 06:30 am
What the hell, some reports are saying everythings fine, some that its crashed. What's going on?

I believe ILS is seeing loss of telemetry as a loss but the vehicle could still be performing nominally, while other news sites claim that the loss of telemetry likely equates to a LOV. As tracking data comes in it should become obvious.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:31 am
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/442018

Quote
Moscow. May 16. INTERFAX.RU - scheduled for early June launch another rocket "Proton-M" with the British communications satellite "Inmarsat-3-5F" will be postponed until the reasons of emergency rocket launch on May 16 informed "Interfax" in the space industry.

"Start" Proton "suspended, scheduled for early June launch of British satellite will be transferred," - said the agency.

He noted that the investigation into the cause of the accident may take from several weeks to several months.

Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:33 am
Per NK forum, it has already fallen in Russia's Chita region.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 06:33 am
I'm not convinced yet either. Let's keep a close eye on this!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: wronkiew on 05/16/2015 06:35 am
Quote
Source: Mexican satellite MexSat-1 is likely lost
MOSCOW, May 16 - RIA Novosti. The Mexican communications satellite Mexsat-1, which is output into orbit on a Russian rocket "Proton-M" is likely lost as a result of which occurred on Saturday morning emergency situation, he told RIA Novosti source in the space industry .
"Proton-M" with the Mexican MexSat-1 satellite was launched from Baikonur
"Telemetry rocket" Proton "lost about a minute before the offices of the Mexican satellite from the third stage of" Proton ": in 8.56 MSK. Mexican satellite is not separated from the third stage and is likely to be recognized as lost, as not able to carry out its functions due to the fact that the orbit of its removal was to be 36 thousand kilometers, and now he has not received and thousands of kilometers from Earth "- a spokesman said.

http://ria.ru/science/20150516/1064826438.html
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/16/2015 06:37 am
Now officially from Roscosmos:

http://www.federalspace.ru/21490/ (http://www.federalspace.ru/21490/)

Quote
Today, May 16, 2015 in the process of launching rocket "Proton-M" satellite "MekSat 1" emergency situation occurred. The reasons are found out.
Also in the morning on May 16, at the appointed time, not including engines TGK "Progress M-26M" to correct the ISS orbit. The reasons are studied by experts Mission Control Center FSUE TsNIIMash.
ROSCOSMOS be informed as more information becomes available.

Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 06:38 am
Now official!

This is terrible for ILS and the Russian space industry as they didn't need another failure!
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 06:40 am
Now officially from Roscosmos:

http://www.federalspace.ru/21490/ (http://www.federalspace.ru/21490/)

Quote
Today, May 16, 2015 in the process of launching rocket "Proton-M" satellite "MekSat 1" emergency situation occurred. The reasons are found out.
Also in the morning on May 16, at the appointed time, not including engines TGK "Progress M-26M" to correct the ISS orbit. The reasons are studied by experts Mission Control Center FSUE TsNIIMash.
ROSCOSMOS be informed as more information becomes available.

.....no details offered eh? (in the case of 365 days ago Roscosmos declared an engine failure pretty early) Hmm.....  ::)
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: wxmeddler on 05/16/2015 06:40 am
Anybody have a guess at the time of  the lithobraking event? I pulled up some high resolution Himawari-8 shortwave IR data. If anything caused a sudden exothermic reaction, it should pick it up as a blip. I see lots of active forest fires in the region but I'm having a hard time spotting one "blip" pixel without a time.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: catdlr on 05/16/2015 06:44 am
and a reference back to the thread for the Failed Proton-M/Briz-M – Ekspress-AM4R – May 15, 2014:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32700.msg1264107#msg1264107
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 06:45 am
Now official!

This is terrible for ILS and the Russian space industry as they didn't need another failure!

The wordings of the release have no details about what happened (just "emergency situation") so I am not convinced that they can confirm an LOV.

I would suggest waiting for ILS (or report of debris on ground like last time) before making a verdict.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 05/16/2015 06:46 am
This launch no longer exists?
http://www.space-center.ru
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 06:52 am
The launch still exists. See

http://www.space-center.ru/ArchiveEvents.aspx
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 06:56 am
Nothing from ILS, but I expect the next thing we'll hear from them is a statement.
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/16/2015 07:00 am
Launch replay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKRT2BRN2HM
Title: Re: LIVE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: coypu76 on 05/16/2015 07:14 am
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/442018 (http://www.interfax.ru/russia/442018)
(my translation)
Moscow. 16 May. Interfax.ru The launch of a Proton-M booster with a British communications satellite intended for early June has been delayed until the reason for the failure of a Proton-M on 16 May (MexSat).

Proton launches have been halted, beginning with the planned launch of the British satellite will be postponed, reported an agency representative, who noted that an investigation into the cause of today's crash may require from several weeks to several months.

Earlier today, a source in the aerospace industry reported to Interfax that an anomaly arose in the third stage of the Proton-M launched Saturday from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.  "In the 498th second of flight the third stage engine had an emergency shut down," he specified.

The third stage of the booster with the Briz-M propulsion module and the MexSat satellite fell in Chita region, said the source.

The MexSat was built to the order of the Mexican ministry of communications and transportation by the American concern Boeing Satellite Systems.  It was constructed on the base of the Boeing 702 NP platform and had a mass of about 4.5 tons, with relay antennas for three bands.  The satellite was intended to provide communications to Mexico and the central part of South America for a minimum 15 year operational lifespan.

The Proton-M booster and the Briz-M propulsion module were built by the Moscow Khrunichev Center.  The launch was carried out by the commercial launch provider International Launch Services, a Russian-American joint venture which has exclusive rights to commercial launches using the Russian Proton heavy lifter.

The Proton MexSat launch was originally scheduled on 29 April but was delayed because Boeing required additional time to test the onboard equipment. An addtional Proton-M launch has been delayed from April until at least August.  Metallic dust was discovered in the plumbing of one of the stages of the booster that was intended to loft the Express-AM8 communications satellite.  Correcting the technical issues of the booster required its return to Moscow.

Abnormal Situation in Space

This is the second anomaly in 24 hours that RosCosmos has had to deal with.  On 16 May a correction burn planned to lift the orbit of the ISS did not take place because the engine of the Progress cargo vessel which was to be used for the burn sent anomalous readings to the on-board computer on the Russian ISS module which caused an abort burn command.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 07:45 am
Still no word from ILS.

But they have stopped updating....
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Appable on 05/16/2015 07:48 am
Interfax reporting a failure of a third stage 11D458 vernier engine :

http://www.interfax.ru/world/442020
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Liss on 05/16/2015 07:56 am
Third stage propulsion system emergency shutdown at either 493 or 498 sec into flight.
Too early to made it to China as this day one year earlier.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 08:21 am
Helicopter dispatched to investigate reports of debris falling south-east of Ulan-Ude close to the Mongolian border: http://tass.ru/kosmos/1973065 (http://tass.ru/kosmos/1973065)

This one's a gonner I'm afraid....
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/16/2015 10:06 am
Here's the ILS Statement:

 

ILS DECLARES PROTON LAUNCH ANOMALY

 

BAIKONUR COSMODROME, Kazakhstan, May 16, 2015– Khrunichev and International Launch Services (ILS) regret to announce an anomaly during today's Proton mission with the Centenario satellite. The satellite was built for Mexican government’s Ministry of Communications and Transportation, the Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT) by Boeing Satellite Systems International.

 

The Proton Breeze M rocket lifted off at 11:47 local time from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, carrying the Centenario satellite.  Preliminary flight information indicates that the anomaly occurred during the operation of the third stage, approximately 490 seconds after liftoff.

 

A Russian State Commission has begun the process of determining the reasons for the anomaly.  ILS will release details when data becomes available.  In parallel with the State Commission, ILS will form its own Failure Review Oversight Board (FROB).  The FROB will review the commission’s final report and corrective action plan, in accord with U.S. and Russian government export control regulations.

 

ILS remains committed to providing reliable, timely launch services for all its customers.  To this end, ILS will work diligently with its partner Khrunichev to return Proton to flight as soon as possible
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: deruch on 05/16/2015 10:36 am
Kind of ridiculous that the official ILS statement doesn't explicitly mention that the "anomaly" resulted in the loss of the vehicle+payload.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 10:37 am
So 3rd stage eh? In the wake of finding metal debris in the 3rd stage that was to launch Express AM8 last month, anyone wanna bet on this causing this accident?  ::)

(as Antares shows, additional checks on debris does not always guarantee that any debris on the other rockets can be cleared off)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Semmel on 05/16/2015 10:39 am
These last months seems to be especially unhappy for launches :( Hope that does not continue.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: FinalFrontier on 05/16/2015 10:53 am
Yet another vehicle failure for Roscosmos/ILS and yet another failure originating in a third stage (and in BRIZ-M).

Not a good sign at all of the internal state of affairs. I hope with all my heart that they get this under control, figure out why there seem to be such lapses of quality control, and rectify them. If there is to be any chance of ongoing or future international cooperation for either LEO or BEO, there needs to be greater mission assurance than there currently seems to be.

No doubt these latest failures are going to have some in Congress asking serious questions again, but for me its clear:
Congress should seriously be considering any and all methods necessary to accelerate the return of US crew launch capability to US soil, as should the next POTUS

If that was not clear after the last 10 months of geopolitical nightmares it should be abundantly so now. One can only hope.

That being said, will be very interested to see what the failure investigation finds. Going to be interested to see if this failure has any commonalities with the third stage failure on progress 59, particularly regarding instrumentation units.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 11:05 am
Another press release from Roscosmos, stating the 3rd stage failed at T+497 seconds (T+8:17) at an altitude of 161 km: http://www.federalspace.ru/21491/
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: FinalFrontier on 05/16/2015 11:06 am
So 3rd stage eh? In the wake of finding metal debris in the 3rd stage that was to launch Express AM8 last month, anyone wanna bet on this causing this accident?  ::)

(as Antares shows, additional checks on debris does not always guarantee that any debris on the other rockets can be cleared off)
Was it ever verified to any degree that FOD in the vehicle caused the turbo failure on the AJ26? Just curious because I  am not sure they ever said (or that they will ever know/bother to know in that case)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: TrevorMonty on 05/16/2015 11:56 am
Space news article on this launch.

http://spacenews.com/ils-proton-rocket-fails-8-minutes-after-liftoff/

It doesn't look good for rest of Proton customers, this will ground it for some time and send cost of  launch insurance though the roof.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Satori on 05/16/2015 12:36 pm
Launch photos from Roscosmos facebook page...
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: MarekCyzio on 05/16/2015 12:53 pm
Sputnik News suggests that failure was caused by the same problem as Express-AM4R
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32700.160
http://sputniknews.com/science/20150516/1022211582.html

Quote
Some experts suppose that one of the causes of the malfunction could be the failure of the steering engine, the same glitch which caused the crash of the same launch vehicle exactly one year ago carrying what would have been Russia’s most advanced and powerful satellite, Express-AM4R.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: input~2 on 05/16/2015 01:00 pm
This failure occurred 55 seconds earlier than last year's (490s vs 545s after T0),  160s after 3rd stage engine ignition
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Poole Amateur on 05/16/2015 01:06 pm
First I would like to thank Steven and Chris for their pre launch coverage earlier today. Things first looked that all was not going to plan when they lost telemetry, even the first stage cutoff was not confirmed. It could just be a coincidence that telemetry failed as well, but one major malfunction is often the result of several smaller failures...
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: alk3997 on 05/16/2015 02:00 pm
Here's a rhetorical question...If the telemetry failed 1 minute before the third stage problem, as suggested by the Sputnik News report and others, how would anyone know that a vernier (steering) engine failed?

All tracking would provide is that the booster's attitude, and therefore steering, started changing.  There are lots of potential causes for the third stage steering to malfunction that don't involve a vernier engine failure.  Without telemetry this is going to be a very difficult investigation.

Andy
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: kevin-rf on 05/16/2015 02:41 pm
Maybe the telemetry data indicated it was falling or failed. Also it would take time for the tracking data to show a deviation.

Heart goes out to them. This must be a devastating blow.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: alk3997 on 05/16/2015 03:10 pm
There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by.   It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: edkyle99 on 05/16/2015 03:34 pm
There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by.   It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle.  The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.

Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/16/2015 03:38 pm
There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by.   It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle.  The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.

Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.

 - Ed Kyle

There have been quite a few flights of Proton with the BSS-702 before today.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: edkyle99 on 05/16/2015 03:48 pm
There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by.   It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle.  The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.

Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.

 - Ed Kyle

There have been quite a few flights of Proton with the BSS-702 before today.
Oops.  You're right, and specific to this satellite, this is the second Boeing 702HP GEM model with the giant mesh L-band reflector to fly on Proton, the previous being SkyTerra 1 in 2010.  MexSat 1 is actually SkyTerra 2, rebuilt, according to Gunter. 

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: NovaSilisko on 05/16/2015 04:15 pm
Quote
Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb

Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.

Oh boy...
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rebel44 on 05/16/2015 05:01 pm
Quote
Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb

Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.

Oh boy...

I am sure, that insurance companies are starting to really hate Proton.........
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: davey142 on 05/16/2015 05:04 pm
Quote
Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb

Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.

Oh boy...
A component failure or design flaw is one thing, but fundamental problems like corruption, or over-working employees is a much more disappointing and preventable error. Unfortunately, the Russian space program seems to have both corruption and overwork.

Let's hope this is just my cynicism and not some deeper issue that Putin and Rogozin promised to fix years ago.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: simonbp on 05/16/2015 05:28 pm
Quote
Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb

Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.

Oh boy...

I am sure, that insurance companies are starting to really hate Proton.........

Protons failing left and right is not exactly a new concept (there were reasons they never put a crew in a TK), but it is certainly the most failure-prone commercial launcher right now. Insurance rates will go up, but I'm dubious the needed quality control will too. I can easily imagine ILS effectively collapsing once Long March 5 starts flying.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Lee Jay on 05/16/2015 05:35 pm
If I'm counting right, this puts Proton's failure rate well over 10% since 2010.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Mader Levap on 05/16/2015 05:36 pm
Let's hope this is just my cynicism and not some deeper issue that Putin and Rogozin promised to fix years ago.

How one can hope to fix corruption in space (or any other) industry if leaders themself are corrupted to core? As old saying goes, "fish rots from head down".
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: ZachS09 on 05/16/2015 05:58 pm
Great. First the Progress failure, now a Proton rocket's third stage malfunctioned, dooming MEXSAT 1. What a month it has been.  >:(
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Antilope7724 on 05/16/2015 06:21 pm
Well let's be glad it was just bent metal that can be replaced and nobody was hurt or killed.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Appable on 05/16/2015 06:27 pm
Interfax reporting that searches for the wreckage of the Briz-M and Mexsat have begun. However there's no data on where it crashed yet, and they are hoping to get more data on that. http://www.interfax.ru/russia/442023

Google translation:

Quote
Trans-Baikal Territory authorities are gathering information and do not yet have data on the site of the crash of the third stage of "Proton", said Deputy Prime Minister Gennady edge Chupin.

"Conducts a survey of the local population, including in remote villages", - said the deputy prime minister, "Interfax" on Saturday.

Earlier sources said that in the area of the third stage booster rocket "Proton-M", launched on Saturday from Baikonur, there was an emergency situation .

On Saturday, it was reported that is planned for the beginning of June next launch rocket "Proton-M" with the British communications satellite "Inmarsat-3-5F" will be postponed until the reasons of emergency rocket launch May 16.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Antares on 05/16/2015 07:24 pm
(as Antares shows, additional checks on debris does not always guarantee that any debris on the other rockets can be cleared off)

Antares didn't show anything yet, except as I believe Ed correctly interpreted that Aerojet can leak causes that deflect blame.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Zed_Noir on 05/16/2015 07:43 pm
...
I can easily imagine ILS effectively collapsing once Long March 5 starts flying.

Not as long as the current ITAR regulations are in place WRT Chinese LVs..
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: psionedge on 05/16/2015 08:03 pm
There will be lots of speculation and very little data to go by.   It will be easy to blame a manufacturing defect or debris in a line (workmanship) problem without telemetry...
Or the satellite, since this was the first flight of this type of satellite on this launch vehicle.  The failure occurred 143 or more seconds after payload fairing jettison was supposed to occur.

Or it could be that the reported telemetry loss time and stage loss time are being misreport this early after the flight.

 - Ed Kyle

There have been quite a few flights of Proton with the BSS-702 before today.
Oops.  You're right, and specific to this satellite, this is the second Boeing 702HP GEM model with the giant mesh L-band reflector to fly on Proton, the previous being SkyTerra 1 in 2010.  MexSat 1 is actually SkyTerra 2, rebuilt, according to Gunter. 

 - Ed Kyle
Gunter is incorrect here. The Mexsat GEMs were new builds, SkyTerra-2 is in storage while its owner works to come out of bankruptcy.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: FinalFrontier on 05/16/2015 08:44 pm
Quote
Anatoly Zak @RussianSpaceWeb

Pre-launch processing of ill-fated #Proton rocket on pad was cut from usual 5 days for unexplained reasons.

Oh boy...
Hate to say it like this because I don't wish ill will on anyone but, more business for spacex/ULA's NGLS/ATK?

That's sort of how I see this, once antares is back and NGLS is flying I just see this as an opportunity for the american launch providers to get alot more international market share than we have ever had before. Would be a great thing, because politically speaking it could potentially help our politicians build a case for Mars easier (on the basis of cheaper LV's). Russia's failings may become America's opportunity. Not at all how you want these things to happen though, this hurts any future cases people may try to make for international Mars missions (Mr. Senator how can we trust Russian hardware it breaks all the time?!?) ect.

I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: FinalFrontier on 05/16/2015 08:47 pm
Great. First the Progress failure, now a Proton rocket's third stage malfunctioned, dooming MEXSAT 1. What a month it has been.  >:(
And apparently an vernier malfunction or data problem during an attempted progress based reboost on ISS 24 hours before this.....
http://www.neowin.net/forum/topic/1256800-iss-reboost-attempt-russian-progress-engine-fails/ (http://www.neowin.net/forum/topic/1256800-iss-reboost-attempt-russian-progress-engine-fails/)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 05/16/2015 08:56 pm
I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.

Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.

That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Kryten on 05/16/2015 09:07 pm
I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.

Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.

That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.
What about Mitsubishi?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: arachnitect on 05/16/2015 09:14 pm
I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.

Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.

That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.

I hate the RD-180 "ban" as much as anybody, but I don't think it's holding LMCLS back. Orb-4 got an Atlas less than 2 weeks after the Antares failure. Congestion at SLC-41 might be an issue. They're already busy and have the crew access tower construction to negotiate as well.

I hope the Russian politicians try to fix the problems, rather than just manage appearances and blame.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 05/16/2015 10:06 pm
I am going to be willing to bet however, that several contracts with proton may be nixed or backed out of after this.

Space News notes that ILS's contracted customers have 'no Plan-B'. ULA are rationing out launches right now due to various supply issues (most notably, Congress trying to block RD-180 purchases). SpaceX and Arianespace are booked solid into 2017 at least. Any delays could be in the order of half a decade or more; some satellite companies wouldn't be able to survive that.

That said, I'm thinking that insurance for a satellite launch on Soyuz-2-1A and Proton-M are going to creep up in cost a mite.

I hate the RD-180 "ban" as much as anybody, but I don't think it's holding LMCLS back. Orb-4 got an Atlas less than 2 weeks after the Antares failure. Congestion at SLC-41 might be an issue. They're already busy and have the crew access tower construction to negotiate as well.

I hope the Russian politicians try to fix the problems, rather than just manage appearances and blame.
Besides, Morelos is already flying on Atlas V, so no integration cost.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Danderman on 05/16/2015 11:38 pm
There is clearly a serious problem at Khrunichev, mostly due to the reality that the original designers are gone, and there are not have adequate replacements. This is likely due to the near collapse of the industry in the 1990s, with an entire generation of workers either being laid off or moving to other industries due to economic factors.

At the same time, the vehicles produced by Khrunichev require a lot of skilled labor, which is now in short supply (skilled in operating these specific vehicles).  It is not likely that Khrunichev is going to significantly invest in securing personnel to operate Proton, which is going to leave operations in the next few years in favor of newer systems.

One solution might be accelerated use of Angara, since at least the designers for that vehicle are available.



Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: rcoppola on 05/17/2015 12:25 am
I think we are starting to witness the unfortunate results from the planned re-consolidation of Russia's space sector. Ironically, a plan put into place to fix things, not make them worse.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20130904/183163496.html

And if these latest events weren't impacted by those decisions, then they certainly weren't helped by them either.

Either way, between the quality control failures and the continuing issues with Vostochny, Russia needs some new space leadership. As well as to honestly re-evaluate whether returning to a consolidated industry with central planning is the right thing to do at a time when the commercial launch industry is moving at an ever increasing agility and efficiency.

Russia is a great and proud spacefaring nation. They deserve better than this.


Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Llian Rhydderch on 05/17/2015 01:19 am
I'm expecting Rogozin on site to "improve morale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV2DLkDPwM8)" at Khrunichev.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rocket Science on 05/17/2015 01:43 am
Korolev is probably rolling over in his grave...
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 05/17/2015 01:48 am
There is clearly a serious problem at Khrunichev, mostly due to the reality that the original designers are gone, and there are not have adequate replacements. This is likely due to the near collapse of the industry in the 1990s, with an entire generation of workers either being laid off or moving to other industries due to economic factors.
I wonder if they didn't put their A team on Angara and what's little left, was put to keep churning Protons. Obviously accelerating Angara might be the right answer in that case.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: kch on 05/17/2015 02:05 am
Korolev is probably rolling over in his grave...

... and Chelomei, too.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: edkyle99 on 05/17/2015 04:33 am
If I'm counting right, this puts Proton's failure rate well over 10% since 2010.
Eight Proton or Proton upper stage failures since 2010 inclusive, a period that has seen 53 Proton launches.  It was also the 48th failure in 404 Proton flights all-time.  Proton failed less than half as often during the 1990-2009 period (11 failures in 169 launches) as during this decade.  Note that the increasing failure rates have coincided with phase-in of Proton M/Briz M.

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DJPledger on 05/17/2015 08:09 am
It is time to retire Proton-M immediately and replace it with Angara 5. Proton-M is far too unreliable for launching expensive comsats.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 05/17/2015 08:21 am
Have they found the wreckage yet? They might not find much as the vehicle was at over 100mi when the engine prematurely shut down and the apogee was probably even higher. As with Progress-59, this LOM investigation will likely have to rely on what little telemetry that they have and engineers' brainstorming meetings.

Korolev is probably rolling over in his grave...

After the loss of Mars 1, Korolev made one of the first 'space is hard' comments (although in his usual flowery and poetic language). He also was reluctant to cooperate with finger-pointing investigations, even when his own head was on the chopping block.
Title: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Lars-J on 05/17/2015 08:48 am
It is time to retire Proton-M immediately and replace it with Angara 5. Proton-M is far too unreliable for launching expensive comsats.

Impossible without Russia losing almost all capability in that payload class. Angara production is gearing up slowly, but it will be years before proton can be fully retired.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: kevin-rf on 05/17/2015 11:23 am
Before everyone jumps on the Proton is unreliable, time for Angara 5 bandwagon. Doesn't the Angara 5 also use the Briz M? Briz M which has been implicated in more than it's fair share of recent failures.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: jacqmans on 05/17/2015 12:20 pm
http://www.federalspace.ru/21492/

ROSCOSMOS: APPROVED Interdepartmental Commission

17/05/2015 13:49

Today, May 17, 2015, Roscosmos has approved the interdepartmental commission investigating the crash launch May 16, 2015 from the Baikonur cosmodrome rocket "Proton-M" with the satellite 'MekSat-1'.

Chairman of the commission: the head of Roscosmos, Igor Komarov.

Deputy Chairman of the commission: deputy director of the Khrunichev Khrunichev Alexander Medvedev.

Members of the commission: representatives of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission under the Government of the Russian Federation; customer representatives - Roscosmos and the Russian Defense Ministry; ACCD, head of branch institutes and enterprises of the rocket and space industry.

On the conclusions of the Commission Roscosmos announced.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rocket Science on 05/17/2015 12:52 pm
Have they found the wreckage yet? They might not find much as the vehicle was at over 100mi when the engine prematurely shut down and the apogee was probably even higher. As with Progress-59, this LOM investigation will likely have to rely on what little telemetry that they have and engineers' brainstorming meetings.

Korolev is probably rolling over in his grave...

After the loss of Mars 1, Korolev made one of the first 'space is hard' comments (although in his usual flowery and poetic language). He also was reluctant to cooperate with finger-pointing investigations, even when his own head was on the chopping block.
Who would you consider to be of the caliber of “Chief Designer” today?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Skyrocket on 05/17/2015 02:09 pm
Before everyone jumps on the Proton is unreliable, time for Angara 5 bandwagon. Doesn't the Angara 5 also use the Briz M? Briz M which has been implicated in more than it's fair share of recent failures.

And Angara has just performed 2 flights, so it is a little bit early to speak about Angara's reliability.

If Proton's problems come from problems inside the organisation (quality control, underpayment, over-working, loss of experienced workers, etc.), it is likely, that these problems might as well affect Angara in the same way.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/17/2015 03:16 pm
We should look to start a thread covering the Russian failures debate, while stressing everyone's gone through a bad period (been seeing those historical threads about those Titan failures in a row, etc.)

A central thread will allow the specific threads to stay specific. So if someone wants to set that up, probably in the Russian section as our Russian friends will have good input.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: mb199 on 05/17/2015 03:30 pm
Have they found the wreckage yet? They might not find much as the vehicle was at over 100mi when the engine prematurely shut down and the apogee was probably even higher. As with Progress-59, this LOM investigation will likely have to rely on what little telemetry that they have and engineers' brainstorming meetings.

Korolev is probably rolling over in his grave...

After the loss of Mars 1, Korolev made one of the first 'space is hard' comments (although in his usual flowery and poetic language). He also was reluctant to cooperate with finger-pointing investigations, even when his own head was on the chopping block.
Who would you consider to be of the caliber of “Chief Designer” today?

That has been the Russians problem, after Korolev died they had to many Chief Designers. They could never put all there resources into one project.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Michael S on 05/17/2015 03:33 pm
I'm trying to get a clearer picture. Given the recent spate of "bad luck", and the bizarre coincidence of 3rd stage issues.
Are both the Proton and Soyuz using the same 3rd stage?
Are both vehicles assembled in the same building and/or by the same people?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Skyrocket on 05/17/2015 03:52 pm
I'm trying to get a clearer picture. Given the recent spate of "bad luck", and the bizarre coincidence of 3rd stage issues.
Are both the Proton and Soyuz using the same 3rd stage?
Are both vehicles assembled in the same building and/or by the same people?

No and no.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: gospacex on 05/17/2015 04:25 pm
That has been the Russians problem, after Korolev died they had to many Chief Designers. They could never put all there resources into one project.

At one point in time, US put all its resources into one LV project: STS. Did it work well?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Patchouli on 05/17/2015 08:56 pm
Before everyone jumps on the Proton is unreliable, time for Angara 5 bandwagon. Doesn't the Angara 5 also use the Briz M? Briz M which has been implicated in more than it's fair share of recent failures.

And Angara has just performed 2 flights, so it is a little bit early to speak about Angara's reliability.

If Proton's problems come from problems inside the organisation (quality control, underpayment, over-working, loss of experienced workers, etc.), it is likely, that these problems might as well affect Angara in the same way.

The Briz M does seem to have some reliability issues the question is are they QM or design related.
The Fregat supposedly had a design flaw where a a support that held both a hydrazine and helium lines acted as a thermal bridge causing the hydrazine to freeze under certain conditions.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 05/17/2015 10:36 pm
Before everyone jumps on the Proton is unreliable, time for Angara 5 bandwagon. Doesn't the Angara 5 also use the Briz M? Briz M which has been implicated in more than it's fair share of recent failures.

And Angara has just performed 2 flights, so it is a little bit early to speak about Angara's reliability.

If Proton's problems come from problems inside the organisation (quality control, underpayment, over-working, loss of experienced workers, etc.), it is likely, that these problems might as well affect Angara in the same way.

The Briz M does seem to have some reliability issues the question is are they QM or design related.
The Fregat supposedly had a design flaw where a a support that held both a hydrazine and helium lines acted as a thermal bridge causing the hydrazine to freeze under certain conditions.
It was actually a manufacturing documentation issue. It didn't stated through which of two possible paths to take the helium lines. And if it was routed next to the hydrazine line, on very long coast missions, it could freeze the hydrazine. It was random placement and it had to be a special mission. It's the sort of mistake that's very difficult to catch before hand. But it is a serious process failure. Given that it had something like 45 missions before, it's the sort of error that might happen. Gyros places incorrectly are not.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Prober on 05/17/2015 11:13 pm
I'm expecting Rogozin on site to "improve morale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV2DLkDPwM8)" at Khrunichev.

You know this is the 3rd Russian failure in a number of weeks. 
Progress
1 missile test.

Pattern ?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: kevin-rf on 05/18/2015 12:34 am
Details on the failed missile test? I had not seen it in the regular spin cycle.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Notaris on 05/18/2015 01:06 am
Details on the failed missile test? I had not seen it in the regular spin cycle.

Russian S300 Missile Fails to Launch
http://www.military.com/video/guided-missiles/surface-to-air/russian-s300-missile-fails-to-launch/4187044289001/


Neither 100% sure that this is the video of the incident a couple of weeks ago nor that it was for sure a S300. From what I read, it was a test of a surface-to-air-missile out of Plesetsk which failed. This is in contrast to the hint on the linked site, which mentiones Ukraine. Maybe someone else has better information.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: FinalFrontier on 05/18/2015 01:10 am
We should look to start a thread covering the Russian failures debate, while stressing everyone's gone through a bad period (been seeing those historical threads about those Titan failures in a row, etc.)

A central thread will allow the specific threads to stay specific. So if someone wants to set that up, probably in the Russian section as our Russian friends will have good input.
I have started a thread for this
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37601.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37601.0)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: woods170 on 05/18/2015 07:18 am
I'm expecting Rogozin on site to "improve morale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aV2DLkDPwM8)" at Khrunichev.

You know this is the 3rd Russian failure in a number of weeks. 
Progress
1 missile test.

Pattern ?

No pattern. 2015 Is rapidly becoming for Russia what 1986 was for USA.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Nicolas PILLET on 05/18/2015 07:57 am
2015 Is rapidly becoming for Russia what 1986 was for USA.

2015 is rapidly becoming for Russia what 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were... for Russia !
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/18/2015 08:51 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gapdGylIInU
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Prober on 05/18/2015 02:11 pm
Details on the failed missile test? I had not seen it in the regular spin cycle.

Russian S300 Missile Fails to Launch
http://www.military.com/video/guided-missiles/surface-to-air/russian-s300-missile-fails-to-launch/4187044289001/


Neither 100% sure that this is the video of the incident a couple of weeks ago nor that it was for sure a S300. From what I read, it was a test of a surface-to-air-missile out of Plesetsk which failed. This is in contrast to the hint on the linked site, which mentiones Ukraine. Maybe someone else has better information.

that looks like the story but doesn't fit the story......it wasn't Ukraine it was a test from Plesetsk. Confused

Today woke up to Yahoo news of this: Russia restarts spacecraft after embarrassing failures  AFP

"The engines of the Progress-M26M cargo transport craft were switched on at 0330 (0030 GMT) and worked for 1922 seconds," space agency Roscosmos said in a statement.

"As a result of the completion of the manoeuvre the altitude of the station's orbit was increased by 2.8 kilometres."

A first attempt to turn on the Progress engines early Saturday failed"

Its this Progress failure that peaks my interest.

Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/18/2015 03:24 pm
Me too. I'm writing up the Progress reboost article.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/18/2015 03:47 pm
A first attempt to turn on the Progress engines early Saturday failed"

Its this Progress failure that peaks my interest.

This some info on this on the ISS Expedition-43 thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36315.0).
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: DaveS on 05/18/2015 04:10 pm
A first attempt to turn on the Progress engines early Saturday failed"

Its this Progress failure that peaks my interest.

This some info on this on the ISS Expedition-43 thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36315.0).
Discussion of the aborted Progress M-26M reboost burn begins here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36315.msg1374992#msg1374992
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/19/2015 06:53 am
2015 Is rapidly becoming for Russia what 1986 was for USA.

2015 is rapidly becoming for Russia what 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were... for Russia !

I think only 2011 and 2013 counts which had four and two failures, respectively. 2012 and 2014 had one failure and one partial failure each. In comparison the US had one failure each in 2011 and 2014 and one partial failure in 2012. Russia was also launching up to twice as often as the US.

Year   Russia   US
2011   4/0/33  1/0/15
2012   1/1/27  0/1/13
2013   2/0/33  0/0/19
2014   1/1/33  1/0/23
2015   2/0/ 9  0/0/ 9


Failures/Partial Failures/Total

That gives an average failure rate (using 0.5 for a partial failure) of 8.1% for Russia and 3.2% for the US.

Note that 2011 also had two consecutive failures with Proton-M/Briz-M and Soyuz-U.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Prober on 05/19/2015 04:09 pm
Me too. I'm writing up the Progress reboost article.

the fine article: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/iss-enjoys-reboost-progress-m-26m-misbehaves/

Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/20/2015 05:42 am
I forgot to add the Soyuz flights from Kourou! Updated table.

Year   Russia   US
2011   4/0/35  1/0/15
2012   1/1/29  0/1/13
2013   2/0/35  0/0/19
2014   1/2/37  1/0/23
2015   2/0/10  0/0/ 9


Failures/Partial Failures/Total

That gives a slightly better failure rate of 7.9% for Russia. The US is still the same at 3.2%.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: dkovacic on 05/20/2015 06:27 am
If you take away Proton failures (5/1/41) in the same period, it gives you 5.9% compared to the 13.4% for Protons. So their failure rate is worse than US, but I think that Protons are really in trouble.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: dkovacic on 05/20/2015 06:41 am
Furthermore in the same period, 25 out of 41 Proton missions were commercial contracts through ILS. Luckily they had just one partial failure (Yamal 402) , so all failures from this period were tied to Russian satellites. ILS has a dry spell since January 2014 for new contracts, so I think Protons are not going to be contracted any more through ILS.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: the_other_Doug on 05/20/2015 11:35 am
I will just note, in passing, that the Proton was considered less reliable than the R7-derived launch vehicles even back in the 1960s, when the Soviets failed to fully man-rate the Proton for manned Zond flights.  Not that they wouldn't have flown men on it if they thought the Zond flight itself was survivable, to beat America to a manned flight around the Moon.  But all subsequent manned vehicles designed to fly on Proton (thinking of TKS, specifically) were never flown with crews.

Just sayin'...  it's not just a recent thing.  Proton, while a really good medium-lift vehicle in terms of capability, has never been as reliable as the comparable American and European medium- and heavy-lift rockets.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/21/2015 12:48 pm
Something that doesn't seems to be discussed yet is the history of this Proton rocket (#935-54) - to which Andrey found out using the long serial numbers in the NK forum (http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum12/topic13651/message1377093/).

It turns out that its long serial number - 5116907974 - did show that it was completed in 2015 ("69" being the year number and "974" the block serial number - here Stan Black et al. can elaborate), BUT interestingly it directly follows the ill-fated Proton launching Express-AM4R 365 days ago, with its # being 5114877973 (despite the "48" showing it to be completed in 2013)!

This, combined with the serial number of the 3rd stage RD-0212 engine under scrutiny (5354855312) as shown in a (now retracted) news report from the Russian newspaper Izvestia (which correctly reported that the engine was completed in 2013), seems to point to the engines from both failures being from the same batch!  ::)

Could this be yet another of spaceflight failures that slipped past the investigators the first time? (won't be surprised since even Orbital did that.....)   :-X
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: MattMason on 05/21/2015 01:20 pm
I forgot to add the Soyuz flights from Kourou! Updated table.

Year   Russia   US
2011   4/0/35  1/0/15
2012   1/1/29  0/1/13
2013   2/0/35  0/0/19
2014   1/2/37  1/0/23
2015   2/0/10  0/0/ 9


Failures/Partial Failures/Total

That gives a slightly better failure rate of 7.9% for Russia. The US is still the same at 3.2%.

If my Google-Fu is certain, both 2011 and 2014 U.S. failures came from Taurus XL and Antares vehicles--both Orbital/Orbital ATK vehicles, but from different causes. ULA and its competitors have a sparkling record thus far.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 05/21/2015 02:50 pm
I forgot to add the Soyuz flights from Kourou! Updated table.

Year   Russia   US
2011   4/0/35  1/0/15
2012   1/1/29  0/1/13
2013   2/0/35  0/0/19
2014   1/2/37  1/0/23
2015   2/0/10  0/0/ 9


Failures/Partial Failures/Total

That gives a slightly better failure rate of 7.9% for Russia. The US is still the same at 3.2%.

If my Google-Fu is certain, both 2011 and 2014 U.S. failures came from Taurus XL and Antares vehicles--both Orbital/Orbital ATK vehicles, but from different causes. ULA and its competitors have a sparkling record thus far.
If you look at companies rather than countries, the best probably is ULA and MHI, then SpaceX and Arianespace, I would give a special mention to NPO Energomash, too. RSC Progress, RSC Energyia, KbKhA, Orbital ATK and CASC are probably a second pack. And Yuzhnoye and Khrunichev are at the bottom.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 05/21/2015 08:35 pm
Something that doesn't seems to be discussed yet is the history of this Proton rocket (#935-54) - to which Andrey found out using the long serial numbers in the NK forum (http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum12/topic13651/message1377093/).

It turns out that its long serial number - 5116907974 - did show that it was completed in 2015 ("69" being the year number and "974" the block serial number - here Stan Black et al. can elaborate), BUT interestingly it directly follows the ill-fated Proton launching Express-AM4R 365 days ago, with its # being 5114877973 (despite the "48" showing it to be completed in 2013)!

This, combined with the serial number of the 3rd stage RD-0212 engine under scrutiny (5354855312) as shown in a (now retracted) news report from the Russian newspaper Izvestia (which correctly reported that the engine was completed in 2013), seems to point to the engines from both failures being from the same batch!  ::)

Could this be yet another of spaceflight failures that slipped past the investigators the first time? (won't be surprised since even Orbital did that.....)   :-X

Looking at the serial numbers there is a 974 missing but it might well be a phase I Proton-M ordered under contract №ЕП/1/03/З/2360/2014; at least two Proton-M are under order for the Military for that contract. The long serial numbers include both 535-series and 935-series rockets. So far all 935 are in sequence.

Протон-М       5114589735   53525  AMC14                      2007    14.03.2008  
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII               93501  Экспресс-АМ44,                     11.02.2009  
                                   Экспресс-МД1                                   
                                                                                  
Протон-М       6302939752   93502  Inmarsat-4F3               2008    18.08.2008  
УЭХ РД-275                                                                        
                                                                                  
Протон-М       5114999793   53533  Astra-1M                   2008/2  05.11.2008  
Протон-М       5114999794   53534  ГЛОНАСС 39                 2008/2  25.12.2008  
                                                                                  
Протон-М УЭХ                93503  Ciel-2                             10.12.2008  
Протон-М УЭХ                93504  Eutelsat-W2A                       03.04.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ   6302249815   93505  Protostar-2                2009    16.05.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ                93506  Sirius-FM5                         30.06.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ                93507  Asiasat-5                          11.08.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ                93508  Nimiq-5                            17.09.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ                93509  Eutelsat-W7                        24.11.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ                93510  DTV-12                             29.12.2009  
Протон-М УЭХ   4923436721   93511  SES-1                      2010    24.04.2010  
Протон-М УЭХ   5113436722   93512  Badr-5 (Arabsat-5B)        2010    03.06.2010  
                                                                                  
Протон-М УЭХ   4923436723   93513  MSV-1                      2010    14.11.2010  
Протон-М ФIII     3436724 ? 93514  Echostar-14                2010    20.03.2010  
Протон-М ФIII  5113436725   93515  Echostar-15                2010    10.07.2010  
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII  6305436726   93516  XM-5                       2010/2  14.10.2010  
Протон-М ФIII     5436727 ? 93517  KA-SAT                     2010/2  26.12.2010  
Протон-М ФIII  6305436728   93518  SES-3, Kazsat-2            2010/2  15.07.2011  
Протон-М ФIII  4925436729   93519  Telstar-14R                2010/2  20.05.2011  
Протон-М ФIII        6730   93520  Viasat-1                           19.10.2011  
                     6731 ?                                                       
Протон-М ФIII  6303146732   93521  Экспресс-АМ4               2011    17.08.2011  
Протон-М ФIII  4923146733   93522  Quetzsat-1                 2011    29.09.2011  
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII  6303146734   93523  Луч-5А, Amos-5             2011    11.12.2011  
Протон-М ФIII  4923146735   93524  SES-4 (NSS-14)             2011    14.02.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  5113146736   93525  Asiasat-7                  2011    25.11.2011  
Протон-М ФIII  6305146737   93526  Intelsat-23                2011/2  14.10.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  4925146738   93527  Yahsat-1B                  2011/2  23.04.2012  
                     6739 ?                                                       
Протон-М ФIII  5113656740   93528  Intelsat-22                2012    25.03.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  6303656741   93529  Nimiq-6                    2012    17.05.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  4923656742   93530  SES-5 (Sirius-5)           2012    09.07.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  5113656743   93531  Telkom-3, Экспресс-МД2     2012    06.08.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  6303656744   93532  Ямал-300К, Луч-5Б          2012    02.11.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  4923656745   93533  Echostar-16                2012    20.11.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  5115656746   93534  Ямал-402                   2012/2  08.12.2012  
Протон-М ФIII  6305656747   93535  Sirius-FM6                 2012/2  25.10.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  4925656748   93536  Satmex-8                   2012/2  26.03.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  5115656749   93537  Anik-G1                    2012/2  15.04.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  6305656750   93538  Eutelsat-W3D               2012/2  14.05.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  4925656751   93539  Astra-2E                   2012/2  29.09.2013  
                                                                                  
Протон-М       4925106752   53541  Глобус-1М                  2011/2  11.11.2013  
Протон-М       6305106753   53542  Космос-2473                2011/2  20.09.2011  
Протон-М       5115106754   53543  ГЛОНАСС                    2011/2  02.07.2013  
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII  5118877968   93540  SES-6                      2013    03.06.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  6308877969   93541  Экспресс-АМ5               2013    26.12.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  4928877970   93542  Экспресс-АТ1, Экспресс-АТ2 2013    15.03.2014  
Протон-М ФIII  5118877971   93543  Türksat-4A                 2013    14.02.2014  
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII  4924877972   93544  Inmarsat-5F1               2013/2  08.12.2013  
Протон-М ФIII  5114877973   93545  Экспресс-АМ4Р              2013/2  15.05.2014  
                     7974 ?                                                       
Протон-М ФIII  6304287975   93546  Луч-5В, Kazsat-3           2014    28.04.2014  
Протон-М ФIII  4924287976   93547  Космос-2501                2014    27.09.2014  
Протон-М ФIII  5114287977   93548  Экспресс-АМ6               2014    21.10.2014  
Протон-М ФIII  6304287978   93549  Astra-2G                   2014    27.12.2014  
Протон-М ФIII  4924287979   93550  Ямал-401                   2014    15.12.2014  
Протон-М ФIII  5118287980   93551  Inmarsat-5F2               2014/2  01.02.2015  
Протон-М ФIII  6308287981   93552  Экспресс-АМ7               2014/2  18.03.2015  
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII               93553  Экспресс-АМ8                             2015 ?
                                                                                  
Протон-М ФIII  5116907974   93554  Mexsat-1                   2015    16.05.2015  
                                                                                  
Протон-М                    93555                                                 
Протон-М                    93556                                                 
Протон-М                    93557                                                 
Протон-М                    93558                                                 
Протон-М                    93559                                                 
Протон-М                    93560                                                 
Протон-М                    93561                                                 
Протон-М                    93562                                                 
Протон-М                    93563                                                 
Протон-М                    93564                                                 
Протон-М                    93565                                                 
Протон-М                    93566                                                 
Протон-М                    93567                                                 
Протон-М                    93568                                                 
Протон-М                    93569                                                 
Протон-М                    93570                                                 
Протон-М                    93571                                                 
Протон-М                    93572                                                 
Протон-М                    93573                                                 
Протон-М                    93574                                                 
Протон-М                    93575                                                 
Протон-М                    93576                                                 
                                                                                  
                                                                                  
                                                                                  
                                                                                  
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: anik on 05/21/2015 09:30 pm
4925146738  /  93527
       739  / 
5113656740  /  93528
6303656741  /  93529
4923656742  /  93530
5113656743  /  93531
6303656744  /  93532
4923656745  /  93533
5115656746  /  93534
6305656747  /  93535
4925656748  /  93536
5115656749  /  93537
6305656750  /  93538
4925656751  /  93539
            /       
4925106752  /  53541
6305106753  /  53542
5115106754  /  53543
            /       
5118877968  /  93540
6308877969  /  93541
4928877970  /  93542
5118877971  /  93543
            /       
4924877972  /  93544
5114877973  /  93545
      7974  / 
6304287975  /  93546
4924287976  /  93547
5114287977  /  93548
6304287978  /  93549
4924287979  /  93550
5118287980  /  93551
6308287981  /  93552
            / 
            /  93553
            / 
5116907974  /  93554


Where have you found this list?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 05/22/2015 09:07 am
Something that doesn't seems to be discussed yet is the history of this Proton rocket (#935-54) - to which Andrey found out using the long serial numbers in the NK forum (http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum12/topic13651/message1377093/).

It turns out that its long serial number - 5116907974 - did show that it was completed in 2015 ("69" being the year number and "974" the block serial number - here Stan Black et al. can elaborate), BUT interestingly it directly follows the ill-fated Proton launching Express-AM4R 365 days ago, with its # being 5114877973 (despite the "48" showing it to be completed in 2013)!

We need to know the long serial numbers for the unflown rockets to make that assumption. Anyone find out the long serial number for the Ekspress-AM8 launcher?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: jgoldader on 05/22/2015 09:41 am
Is there any word on recovery of wreckage?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 05/22/2015 11:53 am
Where have you found this list?

Most came from photographs or video, but I should have given you credit for helping to fill in the gaps.

Anik’s list here:-
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36777.msg1368331
https://sites.google.com/site/anik1982space/
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/25/2015 02:01 pm
http://www.federalspace.ru/21506/

"Materials carefully analyzed by employees of the Operator space means of remote sensing ROSCOSMOS - as a result of a detailed study of the images signs of falling elements "Proton-M" on the surface of the Earth is not revealed. "

So they are saying no debris on the ground was spotted? Interesting how they used assets to check, so that's interesting and thus I would like to write it up.

Anyone able to read this and not use the pigeon English translation my browser provided, would be very helpful for me! :)

Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Danderman on 05/25/2015 03:49 pm
Source says Russian rocket crash caused by human error

http://tass.ru/en/russia/796547

The results of the work of the commission investigating the causes of the Proton-M carrier rocket crash that occurred on May 16 will be reported to the government on Friday, May 29, a Russian space and industry source told TASS on Monday.

"The commission will complete its work and report the results to the Russian government on May 29," the source said.

According to him, the emergencies commission working at the Khrunichev Centre (Proton manufacturer) has exposed a number of violations in the carrier rocket production. "This is, undoubtedly, a human error. The fault occurred in the rocket manufacturing process," he said.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: hrissan on 05/25/2015 04:14 pm
http://www.federalspace.ru/21506/

So they are saying no debris on the ground was spotted? Interesting how they used assets to check, so that's interesting and thus I would like to write it up.

Для обнаружения возможных последствий от падения осколков РН «Протон-М» 16 мая 2015 года РОСКОСМОС организовал мониторинг предполагаемого района падения всеми имеющимися космическими средствами наблюдения. Космическая съемка района проводилась 17, 18, 19, и 20 мая высокодетальными космическими аппаратами Ресурс-П №№ 1 и 2 и Канопус –В № 1. К проведению съемки привлекался также белорусский КА ДЗЗ – «БКА».
В  период 17.05.2015 – 20.05.2015 выполнена космическая съемка района в Забайкальском крае (центральная точка с координатами: 50-41-36 сш, 110-26-36 вд). Всего выполнено 5 маршрутов съемки.
Материалы тщательно проанализированы сотрудниками Оператора космических средств ДЗЗ РОСКОСМОСа – в результате детального изучения полученных снимков признаков падения элементов РН «Протон-М» на поверхность Земли не выявлено.

Roscosmos organized the monitoring of expected debris area by all available space assets to detect aftermath of possible debris hits. Imaging was performed on 17, 18, 19 20 May by high resolution spacecraft Resource-P 1 and 2, Canopus-B 1 and also belarussian spacecraft D33 "BKA".
During 17.05.2015-20.05.2015 the trans Baikal area (center 50-41-36 N, 110-26-36 W) was imaged in 5 passes/strips. The images were thoroughly analyzed by D33 payload operators in ROSCOSMOS. After the detailed analysis no Proton-M debris hits evidence were found.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/25/2015 04:16 pm
http://www.federalspace.ru/21506/

So they are saying no debris on the ground was spotted? Interesting how they used assets to check, so that's interesting and thus I would like to write it up.

Для обнаружения возможных последствий от падения осколков РН «Протон-М» 16 мая 2015 года РОСКОСМОС организовал мониторинг предполагаемого района падения всеми имеющимися космическими средствами наблюдения. Космическая съемка района проводилась 17, 18, 19, и 20 мая высокодетальными космическими аппаратами Ресурс-П №№ 1 и 2 и Канопус –В № 1. К проведению съемки привлекался также белорусский КА ДЗЗ – «БКА».
В  период 17.05.2015 – 20.05.2015 выполнена космическая съемка района в Забайкальском крае (центральная точка с координатами: 50-41-36 сш, 110-26-36 вд). Всего выполнено 5 маршрутов съемки.
Материалы тщательно проанализированы сотрудниками Оператора космических средств ДЗЗ РОСКОСМОСа – в результате детального изучения полученных снимков признаков падения элементов РН «Протон-М» на поверхность Земли не выявлено.

Roscosmos organized the monitoring of expected debris area by all available space assets to detect aftermath of possible debris hits. Imaging was performed on 17, 18, 19 20 May by high resolution spacecraft Resource-P 1 and 2, Canopus-B 1 and also belarussian spacecraft D33 "BKA".
During 17.05.2015-20.05.2015 the trans Baikal area (center 50-41-36 N, 110-26-36 W) was imaged in 5 passes/strips. The images were thoroughly analyzed by D33 payload operators in ROSCOSMOS. After the detailed analysis no Proton-M debris hits evidence were found.

Thanks! That clears it up.....they didn't see any debris on the ground. Good news (and probably means the hardware was almost all destroyed during entry) - with the interesting angle being the use of several spacecraft to check the potential impact regions.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 05/25/2015 05:04 pm
Source says Russian rocket crash caused by human error

http://tass.ru/en/russia/796547

[...]

According to him, the emergencies commission working at the Khrunichev Centre (Proton manufacturer) has exposed a number of violations in the carrier rocket production. "This is, undoubtedly, a human error. The fault occurred in the rocket manufacturing process," he said.

The problem is that this isn't the first serious set of manufacturing defects identified at this factory in very recent history. It must raise uncomfortable questions in certain circles about the culture and discipline of the management and workforce.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: ZachS09 on 05/25/2015 07:39 pm
I understand that this was not intentional human error, but if and only if it was on purpose, let's just say the culprit could get arrested for this matter.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/25/2015 10:32 pm
Here's a short article based on the Roscosmos findings, allowing us to give a bit of a hat tip to the four spacecraft used:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/russian-spacecraft-no-ground-impacts-failed-proton-m/
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 05/26/2015 08:26 am
Possibly significant: The head of a Khrunichev subcontractor has been arrested on accusations of misappropriation of the equivalent of $2B meant to be used for construction and maintenance at Khrunichev. Some sources are pointing to this scandal as a contributory factor to several recent Proton or BRIZ failures.

Link to discussion forum (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37662.0)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Prober on 05/26/2015 01:39 pm
Here's a short article based on the Roscosmos findings, allowing us to give a bit of a hat tip to the four spacecraft used:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/russian-spacecraft-no-ground-impacts-failed-proton-m/

lot's of well written "meat" in that article ;)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: TakeOff on 05/27/2015 08:53 am
The problem is that this isn't the first serious set of manufacturing defects identified at this factory in very recent history. It must raise uncomfortable questions in certain circles about the culture and discipline of the management and workforce.
That would be like arresting seismologists for not predicting an earthquake. The only reason you get arrested is because their overlord who controls the so called justice apparatus, doesn't like you. I expect alot of barking and other public show off, followed by no actual improvement. The guys running this show don't care about actual launches to space, they only care about fighting each other in the zero-sum game about other's money which is politics.

If the next Russian launch fails too, which I think is scheduled to be the already over two months delayed spy sat "Kvarts" on a Soyuz launch June 5th, it would look really bad. Much is at stake for the Russian space organizations now.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: the_other_Doug on 05/27/2015 05:02 pm
The problem is that this isn't the first serious set of manufacturing defects identified at this factory in very recent history. It must raise uncomfortable questions in certain circles about the culture and discipline of the management and workforce.
That would be like arresting seismologists for not predicting an earthquake. The only reason you get arrested is because their overlord who controls the so called justice apparatus, doesn't like you. I expect alot of barking and other public show off, followed by no actual improvement. The guys running this show don't care about actual launches to space, they only care about fighting each other in the zero-sum game about other's money which is politics.

If the next Russian launch fails too, which I think is scheduled to be the already over two months delayed spy sat "Kvarts" on a Soyuz launch June 5th, it would look really bad. Much is at stake for the Russian space organizations now.

This isn't in any way new in the former Soviet Union.  I recall there was a major scandal, never resolved on the Russian side, when it was became known that much of the early investment the USA sent to Russia for initial ISS development went to the building of elaborate dachas for various officials at Roscosmos and at Star City.  I don't recall anyone being fired or arrested over those allegations, either.

But, you're right -- the Soviet system (and before that, the old Russian system, I'm sure) basically set up laws which made illegal things that most people found themselves being forced to do on a regular basis.  This made everyone in the society a technical lawbreaker, and as such your freedom of movement and action was solely dependent on whether or not someone wanted you arrested -- for whatever reasons.  Usually, purely personal reasons.  This doesn't create a vigorous belief in the concept of justice, at least as we in the West would understand it.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: somepitch on 05/29/2015 05:15 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2m2 minutes ago
Roscosmos: May 16 Proton failure caused by degradation at high temp of 3rd stage engine turbopump. Also ID'd: lack of quality control.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/604334599112671232 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/604334599112671232)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/29/2015 05:55 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2m2 minutes ago
Roscosmos: May 16 Proton failure caused by degradation at high temp of 3rd stage engine turbopump. Also ID'd: lack of quality control.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/604334599112671232 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/604334599112671232)

The original press release is here: http://www.roscosmos.ru/21511/ (http://www.roscosmos.ru/21511/)

Sounds like the 3rd stage vernier engine turbopump has problems with the inside material coatings at high temperatures that caused it to vibrate beyond its capabilities and the system was unable to recover the imbalance.

I wonder if it's the same failure as the one last year (although they blamed the vernier connection to the thrust frame on that one, which could have been a down-stream failure?).....
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 05/29/2015 06:22 pm
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2m2 minutes ago
Roscosmos: May 16 Proton failure caused by degradation at high temp of 3rd stage engine turbopump. Also ID'd: lack of quality control.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/604334599112671232 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/604334599112671232)

The original press release is here: http://www.roscosmos.ru/21511/ (http://www.roscosmos.ru/21511/)

Sounds like the 3rd stage vernier engine turbopump has problems with the inside material coatings at high temperatures that caused it to vibrate beyond its capabilities and the system was unable to recover the imbalance.

I wonder if it's the same failure as the one last year (although they blamed the vernier connection to the thrust frame on that one, which could have been a down-stream failure?).....

Also the hardware related suggestions from the investigation committee are (as far as I could understand):

- Replacing the coating material inside the turbopump rotor shaft
- Revision of the techniques of balancing the shaft
- Re-designing the connections of fixing the vernier engine turbopump to the main engine thrust frame

Given that the investigation took just 2 weeks to come to this conclusion that sounds like the repeat of the 2014 accident, the QA problems must be pretty bad since the verniers isn't the most complex engine out there (even on the Proton!).  :-X Were there any similar accidents like this in the West or anywhere else?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Danderman on 05/29/2015 06:53 pm
I don't know enough about Proton to know whether the vernier engines have their own turbopump, or operate as an integrated system with the main engine, and therefore share the turbopump.

Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: jgoldader on 05/29/2015 07:04 pm
With no hardware recovered, I'm a little surprised they were able to narrow it down to this one thing.  If somebody who can read Russian  can find and summarize the evidence for the conclusion, it would make interesting reading.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: MattMason on 05/29/2015 07:08 pm
With no hardware recovered, I'm a little surprised they were able to narrow it down to this one thing.  If somebody who can read Russian  can find and summarize the evidence for the conclusion, it would make interesting reading.

Telemetry would tell them this information from the pump's speed, temperature and other sensors. A quality control check with scheduled-to-fly engines at the factory itself, not to mention the process of building, would support that verdict.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: edkyle99 on 05/29/2015 09:07 pm
I don't know enough about Proton to know whether the vernier engines have their own turbopump, or operate as an integrated system with the main engine, and therefore share the turbopump.
Here's a good overview.  The verniers share a turbopump that is separate from the main engine.
http://www.spaceflight101.com/ekspress-am4r---proton-launch-updates.html

RD-0214 problems seem to have been occurring for several years, even during successful missions.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15600.0

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rocket Science on 05/29/2015 09:39 pm
 Sounds a lot like... “Everything is under control folks... Move along nothing to see here...” :-X
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Space Ghost 1962 on 05/29/2015 09:47 pm
Seem to recall that it also was under consideration as a high energy US (High Energy Second Stage - HESS):
Space industry giants Orbital upbeat ahead of Antares debut (http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2012/02/orbital-upbeat-ahead-of-antares-debut/)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 05/29/2015 10:32 pm
Seem to recall that it also was under consideration as a high energy US (High Energy Second Stage - HESS):
Space industry giants Orbital upbeat ahead of Antares debut (http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2012/02/orbital-upbeat-ahead-of-antares-debut/)
That was the KbKhA's RD-0124, a completely different engine. It's a ORSC RG-1/LOX engine with four nozzles and no verniers.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 05/30/2015 12:07 am
I wonder when ILS' report comes out. That would avoid any potential mistranslations per the Roscosmos version.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 05/30/2015 10:09 am
Hers's Anatoly Zak's report:

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome)

Quote
On May 29, 2015, Roskosmos announced the results of the investigation into the MexSat-1 launch failure. According to the official statement, the steering engine of the third stage failed due to excessive vibration loads, which had been caused by an increasing imbalance of the rotor in the turbopump. The problem was linked to the degradation of the material of the rotor under the influence of high temperatures and to the poor balancing system. The failure was characterized as a design flaw.

According to the agency, the head of Roskosmos Igor Komarov directed GKNPTs Khrunichev and its branches to develop a plan of measures aimed to resolve the issue, including:

    To replace the material making up the shaft of the turbopump rotor;
    To upgrade procedures for balancing the turbopump rotor;
    To upgrade the attachment of the steering engine turbopump to the framework of the main engine.

The agency also announced that the investigation had revealed a number of problems in the management of the quality control issues within the wider industry and promised to develop a plan of measures to resolve them within a month. The launch date for the next Proton mission would be announced in June 2015, Roskosmos said.

During a briefing with reporters on the same day, Deputy Head of Roskosmos, Aleksandr Ivanov said that the quick identification of the culprit in the MexSat-1 failure had become possible thanks to measures taken during a similar Proton accident exactly a year earlier. At the time, the route cause of the failure was mistakenly characterized as a production defect, triggering a massive inspection and re-certification of already manufactured hardware at the Voronezh Mechanical Plant, VMZ. However in addition, new vibration sensors were installed in the turbopump of the engine for future launches. The telemetry from those sensors complemented by ground tests, including a live firing of the engine, enabled to finally re-qualify the issue as an old design flaw rather than poor production. As it turned out, under certain border-line conditions, the shaft of the turbopump tends to fail, even though, it had actually happened in just three launches out of more than 400 Proton missions since 1965.

Aleksandr Medvedev, First Deputy Director at GKNPTs Khrunichev, confirmed during the briefing that the Proton failure on Jan. 18, 1988, had also stemmed from the same design flaw. However, at the time, the rocket completely lacked vibration load sensors and investigators had to work in the dark in search for a culprit, Ivanov added.

The failed rocket of 2014 did carry some vibration sensors on the frame of the engine, however that location turned out to be too far from the turbopump to correctly pinpoint the problem, Ivanov explained. Moreover, investigators into the 2014 failure were under the influence of preceding accidents, which prompted them to focus on the production defects and quality control issues. (In 2013, Proton failed seconds after liftoff due to wrong installation of flight control sensors. In 2010, Proton plunged into the ocean due to mishandling of the fueling procedures.)

Medvedev assured that despite very careful examination of the quality control procedures, no violations of the established process had been found this time. According to Medvedev, the telemetry from the mission provided a very clear picture of the accident, while production and testing of the rocket before the flight caused most controversy. Despite that, all 34 members of the investigative commission, working on seven different aspects of the accident, ultimately came to a consensus, Medvedev said.

In his turn, Ivanov assured that the newly available information allows to fully remedy the problem. According to Komarov, the new material for the failed rotor shaft had already been identified in the wake of the May 2014 failure.

According to Medvedev, officials also concluded that the turbopump attachment system had contributed to the failure and would have to be redesigned.

Unfortunately, investigators were not able to find surviving fragments of the actual turbopump, which caused the MexSat-1 failure, at the crash site in Eastern Russia, Medvedev said. He added, that the crash site was apparently affected by fire and the effort to recover the hardware would continue. The examining the hardware would draw a line under the accident.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rebel44 on 05/30/2015 10:18 am
If redesign is needed, what is the chance of Proton being scrapped, at least for commercial launches? Satelite operators are already unlikely to give it more contracts anyway - due to high cost of insurance and high risk of failure?

Any estimates, how long would redesign take and what would be the cost?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Star One on 05/30/2015 11:58 am

If redesign is needed, what is the chance of Proton being scrapped, at least for commercial launches? Satelite operators are already unlikely to give it more contracts anyway - due to high cost of insurance and high risk of failure?

Any estimates, how long would redesign take and what would be the cost?

I doubt they can afford to scrap it for commercial launches at this time.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rebel44 on 05/30/2015 12:13 pm

If redesign is needed, what is the chance of Proton being scrapped, at least for commercial launches? Satelite operators are already unlikely to give it more contracts anyway - due to high cost of insurance and high risk of failure?

Any estimates, how long would redesign take and what would be the cost?

I doubt they can afford to scrap it for commercial launches at this time.

It may not be entirely in their hands - with high insurance cost, cost of commercial Proton launch might be too high (considering high failure rates), so contracts are much much more likely to go to Arianespace and SpaceX.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Star One on 05/30/2015 12:31 pm


If redesign is needed, what is the chance of Proton being scrapped, at least for commercial launches? Satelite operators are already unlikely to give it more contracts anyway - due to high cost of insurance and high risk of failure?

Any estimates, how long would redesign take and what would be the cost?

I doubt they can afford to scrap it for commercial launches at this time.

It may not be entirely in their hands - with high insurance cost, cost of commercial Proton launch might be too high (considering high failure rates), so contracts are much much more likely to go to Arianespace and SpaceX.

But can satellite owners swap launchers that easily especially if they need their payloads to be operating by certain dates?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rebel44 on 05/30/2015 12:36 pm


If redesign is needed, what is the chance of Proton being scrapped, at least for commercial launches? Satelite operators are already unlikely to give it more contracts anyway - due to high cost of insurance and high risk of failure?

Any estimates, how long would redesign take and what would be the cost?

I doubt they can afford to scrap it for commercial launches at this time.

It may not be entirely in their hands - with high insurance cost, cost of commercial Proton launch might be too high (considering high failure rates), so contracts are much much more likely to go to Arianespace and SpaceX.

But can satellite owners swap launchers that easily especially if they need their payloads to be operating by certain dates?

I am not talking about already signed contracts - we already know, that both Arianespace and SpaceX have full plate for the next 2 years. But any new commercial lauch contracts are current rather unlikely, to be awarded to Proton/ILS.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: alk3997 on 05/30/2015 02:00 pm
The report is interesting in that, unlike what was reported during the live broadcast, telemetry was flowing at the time of the accident.  It seems that only ILS was not getting telemetry during much of ascent.  That's an interesting coincidence.

The next launch date for Proton will be announced in June.  That's unusual because usually the Russian space industry will announce a planned launch date at the time the cause of the accident is announced (usually a manufacturing defect).  So, it appears that Roskosmos and Khrunichev might be taking this accident more seriously than previous ones since it has been labeled as a "design defect". 

Also interesting that the new material for the rotor shaft had already been identified before the launch.  This is also not unusual in previous launch vehicle accidents where an improvement had already been identified but the urgency for making the change had not been foreseen. 

Finally, expect that the next commercial Proton launch will not be the next launch.  I'm sure insurers would like to see at least one successful Proton launch before insuring a Proton payload.  Rate increases are spread throughout the satellite insurance industry (have to correct for the lost money as quickly as possible).  These increases will not be as much as some people seem to think since it won't just be Proton insurance rates that increase.  Proton insurance rates were already high, so it would be hard to make those rates much higher without causing some Proton launches to become "self-insured".  If a satellite is self-insured, the insurance industry receives no premiums, which does not help it recover from paying out on MexSat-1.

Andy
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rebel44 on 05/30/2015 02:16 pm
......
Finally, expect that the next commercial Proton launch will not be the next launch.  I'm sure insurers would like to see at least one successful Proton launch before insuring a Proton payload.  Rate increases are spread throughout the satellite insurance industry (have to correct for the lost money as quickly as possible).  These increases will not be as much as some people seem to think since it won't just be Proton insurance rates that increase.  Proton insurance rates were already high, so it would be hard to make those rates much higher without causing some Proton launches to become "self-insured".  If a satellite is self-insured, the insurance industry receives no premiums, which does not help it recover from paying out on MexSat-1.

Andy

If I am an insurance company and someone asks me to insure satelite launch worth $400M on a vehicle with 15% failure rate, you can bet your house, that insurance will be over 15% of value of potential payout, because insurance companies are not willing to lose the money on its contracts. For insurance company, not getting a contract, is a much more preferable, than statistical certainty, of losing money on such contract.

Also, since insurance business isnt a monopoly, ability to spread a loss to other customers (launching on Arianespace and SpaceX rockets) is fairly limited.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Star One on 05/30/2015 02:22 pm



If redesign is needed, what is the chance of Proton being scrapped, at least for commercial launches? Satelite operators are already unlikely to give it more contracts anyway - due to high cost of insurance and high risk of failure?

Any estimates, how long would redesign take and what would be the cost?

I doubt they can afford to scrap it for commercial launches at this time.

It may not be entirely in their hands - with high insurance cost, cost of commercial Proton launch might be too high (considering high failure rates), so contracts are much much more likely to go to Arianespace and SpaceX.

But can satellite owners swap launchers that easily especially if they need their payloads to be operating by certain dates?

I am not talking about already signed contracts - we already know, that both Arianespace and SpaceX have full plate for the next 2 years. But any new commercial lauch contracts are current rather unlikely, to be awarded to Proton/ILS.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. In that case I'm more inclined to agree with your analysis.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: cscott on 05/30/2015 03:36 pm


The report is interesting in that, unlike what was reported during the live broadcast, telemetry was flowing at the time of the accident.  It seems that only ILS was not getting telemetry during much of ascent.  That's an interesting coincidence.
It may be that only real-time telemetry was lost.  That is, either the network used to distribute telemetry from the ground stations was (partially) down, or else the signal was weak/corrupt but the raw signal was still recorded, and later postprocessing was able to pull relevant data out.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: alk3997 on 05/30/2015 04:09 pm
......
Finally, expect that the next commercial Proton launch will not be the next launch.  I'm sure insurers would like to see at least one successful Proton launch before insuring a Proton payload.  Rate increases are spread throughout the satellite insurance industry (have to correct for the lost money as quickly as possible).  These increases will not be as much as some people seem to think since it won't just be Proton insurance rates that increase.  Proton insurance rates were already high, so it would be hard to make those rates much higher without causing some Proton launches to become "self-insured".  If a satellite is self-insured, the insurance industry receives no premiums, which does not help it recover from paying out on MexSat-1.

Andy

If I am an insurance company and someone asks me to insure satelite launch worth $400M on a vehicle with 15% failure rate, you can bet your house, that insurance will be over 15% of value of potential payout, because insurance companies are not willing to lose the money on its contracts. For insurance company, not getting a contract, is a much more preferable, than statistical certainty, of losing money on such contract.

Also, since insurance business isnt a monopoly, ability to spread a loss to other customers (launching on Arianespace and SpaceX rockets) is fairly limited.

Actually the pool of money that all satellite insurers use is limited.  You might want to check past payouts and how they all come from the same source of money - Lloyds of London is involved, if I remember correctly.  So while the insurers aren't a monopoly, the all pull from a very limited pool of money.

And, 15% is still better than 5/6th successful and certainly not a "statistical certainty" of failure.  If the premiums are high enough, then many companies would cover that bet.  Again, self-insurance is always an option.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: sdsds on 05/30/2015 04:21 pm
"You are probably not an insurance company."

Congratulations to Proton for the relatively quick identification of a root cause, not because they got lucky but because they had on-board sensors that reported the unexpected behavior.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Rebel44 on 05/30/2015 04:27 pm
......
Finally, expect that the next commercial Proton launch will not be the next launch.  I'm sure insurers would like to see at least one successful Proton launch before insuring a Proton payload.  Rate increases are spread throughout the satellite insurance industry (have to correct for the lost money as quickly as possible).  These increases will not be as much as some people seem to think since it won't just be Proton insurance rates that increase.  Proton insurance rates were already high, so it would be hard to make those rates much higher without causing some Proton launches to become "self-insured".  If a satellite is self-insured, the insurance industry receives no premiums, which does not help it recover from paying out on MexSat-1.

Andy

If I am an insurance company and someone asks me to insure satelite launch worth $400M on a vehicle with 15% failure rate, you can bet your house, that insurance will be over 15% of value of potential payout, because insurance companies are not willing to lose the money on its contracts. For insurance company, not getting a contract, is a much more preferable, than statistical certainty, of losing money on such contract.

Also, since insurance business isnt a monopoly, ability to spread a loss to other customers (launching on Arianespace and SpaceX rockets) is fairly limited.
And, 15% is still better than 5/6th successful and certainly not a "statistical certainty" of failure.  If the premiums are high enough, then many companies would cover that bet.  Again, self-insurance is always an option.

If you charge less, than you are statistically likely to pay out over a long term, you will lose money - and insurance companies dont want to do that (lol).

Since Proton isnt he only choice (we are talking about new contracts), high failure rate and high insurance will drive customers to other launch companies (Arianespace, SpaceX, Orbital, ULA etc.), where they have better chance of success and viable insurance cost.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: edkyle99 on 05/30/2015 04:48 pm
I wonder.  In recent years Khrunichev has been more and more "enhancing" Proton M to squeeze more GTO performance.  Could the shaving of a few kg in the bracket holding the turbopump, or of some associated structure, have allowed more vibration modes?

 - Ed Kyle
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: cscott on 05/30/2015 05:34 pm
I wonder.  In recent years Khrunichev has been more and more "enhancing" Proton M to squeeze more GTO performance.  Could the shaving of a few kg in the bracket holding the turbopump, or of some associated structure, have allowed more vibration modes?

 - Ed Kyle
If the 1988 failure was due to the same root cause, it seems that recent changes are not (solely) to blame.
Hers's Anatoly Zak's report:

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome)

Quote
Aleksandr Medvedev, First Deputy Director at GKNPTs Khrunichev, confirmed during the briefing that the Proton failure on Jan. 18, 1988, had also stemmed from the same design flaw. However, at the time, the rocket completely lacked vibration load sensors and investigators had to work in the dark in search for a culprit, Ivanov added.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: A12 on 05/30/2015 05:50 pm
I wonder.  In recent years Khrunichev has been more and more "enhancing" Proton M to squeeze more GTO performance.  Could the shaving of a few kg in the bracket holding the turbopump, or of some associated structure, have allowed more vibration modes?

 - Ed Kyle

Is this kind of defect undetectable during ground tests ?
One could think that, after that changes, they should test the stage on the bench.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: cscott on 05/30/2015 07:42 pm
They can detect it on ground now that they know what they are looking for.  And in fact the Fine Article states that they did just that in order to confirm the diagnosis:
Quote
The telemetry from those sensors complemented by ground tests, including a live firing of the engine, enabled to finally re-qualify the issue as an old design flaw rather than poor production. As it turned out, under certain border-line conditions, an improperly balanced shaft of the turbopump tends to excessively vibrate, deform and fail. Investigators determined that the same problem doomed three launches out of more than 400 Proton missions since 1965.

 The trick is knowing what to look for, I expect.  It's a very rare failure mode.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: A12 on 05/30/2015 08:54 pm
The trick is knowing what to look for, I expect.  It's a very rare failure mode.

I understand that, I was referring to standard acceptance tests, or whatever are called,  not to the one they did purposely after the accident. Anyway you answered: it is a rare case that went undetected for decades, space is hard...
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: sdsds on 05/30/2015 11:37 pm
I'm trying to understand how difficult it is to proactively perform the kind of testing which was here done retroactively, i.e. making the failure occur in a test article.

I'm guessing that with the sensor readings from the failed flight, they could mechanically induce in a test pump vibrations at what turns out to have been a natural resonant frequency.

In things that might shake apart, how standard is it (in US/Japan/European aerospace industries) to test for resonance of this type across a wide range of possible frequencies before deploying the system? 
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: cscott on 05/31/2015 01:59 am
In my reading of the article, "border-line conditions" must likely means a combination of factors.  That is, it's not enough to test against the entire vibration frequency range, it's doing that at the same time you cycle through the entire frequency range of two or three or ten other things, to find the one point where they all interact in exactly the wrong way.

It's the combinatorics that get you with brute-force testing strategies.  Better to approach things analytically... but then again sometimes you have to know what to look for.  Rare failures tend to require just enough things to go wrong at once to sneak past brute force tests (frequency sweeps, etc) and just strange enough to escape analytic notice.  Murphy is devious.

And of course, it will be a *long* time before the statistics will be able to tell you if the fix they implement is actually better than the original problem.  (We could find out quickly if it's worse, though.)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Steven Pietrobon on 05/31/2015 04:02 am
The report is interesting in that, unlike what was reported during the live broadcast, telemetry was flowing at the time of the accident.  It seems that only ILS was not getting telemetry during much of ascent.  That's an interesting coincidence.

The telemetry they used was probably from before the actual failure and loss of telemetry. With the additional sensors, that would have shown the high vibration levels that caused the failure.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: JazzFan on 06/02/2015 07:15 pm
Spaceflight now article on turbo pump design flaw blamed for failure.

http://spaceflightnow.com/2015/06/01/roscosmos-design-flaw-brought-down-proton-rocket/
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: MattMason on 06/02/2015 08:30 pm
Spaceflight now article on turbo pump design flaw blamed for failure.

http://spaceflightnow.com/2015/06/01/roscosmos-design-flaw-brought-down-proton-rocket/

That's it! That's the article I recalled before my eyes went cross-eyed and confused the Soyuz/Progress third stage issues with Proton. Thanks for finding that. Now the question is how well they can patch up that flaw or, better, replace it.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 07/01/2015 03:17 pm
Someone help translate please!

From KBKhA annual report:-
Quote
4. Направить в Роскосмос предложения о необходимости финансирования проведения работ по двигателю 8Д611 вследствие произошедших в 2013 и 2014 годах аварийных пусков РН «Протон-М»;
http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/FileLoad.ashx?Fileid=1094198

The 8Д611 is the steering engine.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 07/01/2015 04:51 pm
Someone help translate please!

From KBKhA annual report:-
Quote
4. Направить в Роскосмос предложения о необходимости финансирования проведения работ по двигателю 8Д611 вследствие произошедших в 2013 и 2014 годах аварийных пусков РН «Протон-М»;
http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/FileLoad.ashx?Fileid=1094198

The 8Д611 is the steering engine.
From google translate it would seem a request for funds to Roscosmos to redesign (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome) the RD-0214 turbopump that was found to be unreliable in the failed MexSat-1 launch. That's the Proton-M third stage engine vernier engine, with the RD-0213 make the RD-0212 propulsion module. I have it as the 8D811, both from astronautix and lpre.de, so I guess they made a typo?
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 07/02/2015 04:56 pm
Someone help translate please!

From KBKhA annual report:-
Quote
4. Направить в Роскосмос предложения о необходимости финансирования проведения работ по двигателю 8Д611 вследствие произошедших в 2013 и 2014 годах аварийных пусков РН «Протон-М»;
http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/FileLoad.ashx?Fileid=1094198

The 8Д611 is the steering engine.
From google translate it would seem a request for funds to Roscosmos to redesign (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome) the RD-0214 turbopump that was found to be unreliable in the failed MexSat-1 launch. That's the Proton-M third stage engine vernier engine, with the RD-0213 make the RD-0212 propulsion module. I have it as the 8D811, both from astronautix and lpre.de, so I guess they made a typo?

It is the reference to 2013 I am not sure about.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: McDew on 07/03/2015 12:47 am
Someone help translate please!

From KBKhA annual report:-
Quote
4. Направить в Роскосмос предложения о необходимости финансирования проведения работ по двигателю 8Д611 вследствие произошедших в 2013 и 2014 годах аварийных пусков РН «Протон-М»;
http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/FileLoad.ashx?Fileid=1094198

The 8Д611 is the steering engine.
From google translate it would seem a request for funds to Roscosmos to redesign (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome) the RD-0214 turbopump that was found to be unreliable in the failed MexSat-1 launch. That's the Proton-M third stage engine vernier engine, with the RD-0213 make the RD-0212 propulsion module. I have it as the 8D811, both from astronautix and lpre.de, so I guess they made a typo?

It is the reference to 2013 I am not sure about.
The engine for the launch failure in 2014 was manufactured in 2013.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Nicolas PILLET on 07/03/2015 04:30 pm
I have it as the 8D811, both from astronautix and lpre.de, so I guess they made a typo?

Hmmm... I have 8D611 on my website...

http://www.kosmonavtika.com/lanceurs/proton/partie2/3.html
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Stan Black on 07/05/2015 11:05 am
The design of the Proton rocket has not remained static, but evolved over many years.

On the Proton rocket there are three types of engine. The RD-253, later RD-275 and now RD-276 on the 1st stage. On the 2nd and 3rd stages are variations of the same type of engine: RD-0210, RD-0211 and RD-0213. To support the 3rd stage is a steering engine the RD-0214; one pump and four combustion chambers.

Anik posted over on N.K. forum reference to changes made to the steering engine bearings in 1985.
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum12/topic13651/message1387073/#message1387073

Coincidently, this was at the same time that two enhanced Proton-K were being prepared for the launch of Kvant and Mir. Those two rockets featured the RD-253 engines forced with an additional 6½% thrust, and the upper stage RD-0210/RD-0211 with 1½%. These changes lead to later launches having RD-253 engines being operated with an additional 2% thrust; and followed by the introduction of the RD-275 with 7% more thrust then the RD-253.

Part of the Proton-M introduction saw further revisions to the RD-0210/RD-0211 engines being introduced to the Proton-K; sometimes referred to as phase II, but not to be confused with the phase II Proton-M rockets. The Proton-M was to further force the engines thrust; an additional 2% from the RD-275 and 5% from the RD-0210 and RD-0211. The improvements, but without an increase of thrust, were also introduced to Proton-K. It looks like the ‘quick’ introduction of enhanced RD-0210 and RD-0211 after the crashes of 1999, was in-part from an already existing improvement programme.
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/station/zvezda/000707preview/index4.html

But after all theses revisions to the Proton, it looks like the RD-0214 was not changed since 1985? The only possible changes would have been required to support the Proton-M phase III depletion of 3rd stage propellant?
http://www.ilslaunch.com/assets/pdf/Sat-Finance-Dec-2009.pdf

In 2005 KBKhA in their Annual Report referred to problems with the steering engine during the launch of Ekspress-AM2. In the 2014 Annual Report there was reference to problems both in 2013 and 2014? The 2014 is the known one that took down Ekspress-AM4R.

Khrunichev and Roscomos have been paying for improvements to the RD-0214 steering engine; including in 2012 to ‘protect engine flow regulators from foreign particles’, and in 2014 to ‘test engine rotor during high-frequency tests’.
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/documentdownload?documentId=70564444
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/plan/public/download/download.html?id=1596911
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/223/plan/public/plan/info/actual-documents.html?planId=110810&planInfoId=608587&versioned=&activeTab=1

It appears the RD-0214 steering engine’s problems have been around for a long time.

Thanks to Fregate with translations.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: baldusi on 07/06/2015 12:44 pm
I have it as the 8D811, both from astronautix and lpre.de, so I guess they made a typo?

Hmmm... I have 8D611 on my website...

http://www.kosmonavtika.com/lanceurs/proton/partie2/3.html
I'm really interested in solving this conundrum. Can Nicolas, Anik, Fregat or Russianhalo get an authoritative answer? I've wrote the Wikipedia article on the RD-0214 and I want to get all facts right.
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: owais.usmani on 07/28/2015 06:20 pm
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/mexsat1.html#outcome

The investigation into the MexSat-1 failure established that a fast spinning shaft inside a turbine of the RD-0212 engine propelling the third stage can break easily due to excessive vibrations. (The turbine is designed to pump propellant into four thrusters which steer the rocket in flight.)
Title: Re: FAILURE: Proton-M/Briz-M launch with MexSat-1 - May 16, 2015 (05:47 UTC)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 08/03/2015 04:11 pm
 INTERNATIONAL LAUNCH Services Concludes REVIEW OF the CENTENARIO Proton Launch FAILURE Investigation

August 3, 2015 - The International Launch Services (ILS) Failure Review Oversight Board (FROB) concluded its work, concurring with the most probable cause and the associated corrective action plan which were identified by the Russian Interagency Commission (IAC) as a result of the May 16 Proton launch vehicle failure carrying the Centenario spacecraft.

The members of the FROB reviewed the findings and conclusions from the IAC along with results from testing and investigations that the IAC directed to be performed by Khrunichev and their subsidiaries.  Based on the data presented by KhSC, the FROB agreed that the most probable cause of the failure was a result of a higher than expected vibration environment most likely caused by the combination of a marginal mechanical joint used to mount the Stage III steering engine turbo pump and a steering engine turbopump rotor material that had marginal strength under maximum operating environments. This led to a premature shutdown of the turbopump and loss of Stage III control authority and subsequently to the failure of the mission during 3rd stage operation approximately 497 seconds after liftoff.

“The participating customers, insurance underwriters and independent subject matter experts are to be commended for their valuable contributions during the extensive FROB review process. We thank our customers for their support as we prepare for the safe return to flight of ILS Proton,” said ILS Vice President and Chief Technical Officer, John Palmé.