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General Discussion => Live Event Section - Latest Space Flight News => Topic started by: Chris Bergin on 02/20/2013 08:51 PM

Title: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/20/2013 08:51 PM
Heard bits about this, another exciting but probably needs a load of money, drive:

MEDIA ADVISORY & INVITATION

Feb. 20, 2013                                                                                     

 

The Planets are Aligning for a Once-in-a-Generation Space Journey

Join us for a special press conference at The National Press Club

 

WHAT:

The Inspiration Mars Foundation, a newly formed nonprofit organization led by American space traveler and entrepreneur Dennis Tito, invites you to attend a press conference detailing its plans to take advantage of a unique window of opportunity to launch an historic journey to Mars and back in 501 days, starting in January 2018. This “Mission for America” will generate new knowledge, experience and momentum for the next great era of space exploration. It is intended to encourage all Americans to believe again, in doing the hard things that make our nation great, while inspiring youth through Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education and motivation.

 

The Inspiration Mars Foundation is committed to accelerating America’s human exploration of space as a critical catalyst for future growth, national prosperity, new knowledge and global leadership.

 

WHO:               

·         Miles O’Brien, moderator

·         Dennis Tito, chairman of Inspiration Mars Foundation and the first private space traveler

·         Taber MacCallum, chief executive officer and chief technology officer of Paragon Space Development Corporation and crew member for two-year mission in Biosphere 2

·         Dr. Jonathan Clark, associate professor of Neurology and Space Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and space medicine advisor for the National Space Biomedical Research Institute

·         Jane Poynter, president and chairwoman of Paragon Space Development Corporation and crew member for two-year mission in Biosphere 2

 

WHEN:

Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2013 at 1 p.m.

·         45-minute press conference, followed by Q&A period

 

WHERE:

The National Press Club

529 14th St NW, 13th floor

Washington D.C.



Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/20/2013 10:22 PM
Sounds like a Mars Orbit mission. Possible to create such a mission plan and the needed hardware until start in 2018? I have my questions, but hey, party time!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: ciscosdad on 02/20/2013 10:43 PM
I think they should aim for a lunar orbit mission first. (assuming its manned). Mars is far too ambitious in the time frame.
However they may have something new. The press conference will tell.

Edit: On reflection, perhaps its a non stop with Venus and Mars flyby, maybe probe dropoffs at Mars and Venus. That would be much less demanding propulsively, and could be done with ISS technology.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/21/2013 03:25 AM
Figure out the initial mass in LEO required for a human mission to Mars.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 03:49 AM
Figure out the initial mass in LEO required for a human mission to Mars.
Huge dependence on number of astronauts, what kind of orbit you enter, what kind of ECLSS, what kind of space you think they'll need, and mission mode (long-stay, short-stay, fast-transit, etc).

For minimum, I'd say look at what it'd take to push Salyut 7 (just the main module, plus an attached Soyuz) through the delta-v of barely entering Mars orbit (perhaps with slight aerobraking), then leaving Mars orbit ~500-600 days later for trans-Earth insertion. 1kg/astronaut (very calorie-dense food, efficient ECLSS) for 1100 days for 2 astronauts. And lets say the whole stack starts at EML2.

In that case, there's about 1km/s until trans-Mars insertion, 1km/s .9km/s for Mars capture, 1km/s .9km/s for Mars departure (and reentry at Earth) for a total of 2.8km/s delta-v. Assuming something equivalent to Block-D (stretched, having a dry mass of 4000kg), maybe slightly better (EDIT:hypergolic), we have an exhaust velocity of 3.4km/s3.2km/s.

Soyuz is ~7000kg.
Consumables maybe 2000-4000kg (we need some margin here, 1kg/day is pretty optimistic...).
Salyut 7 is 20000kg.
Dry stretchedBlock D used for all large maneuvers: 4000kg
Total: 35000kg.
35*e^(2.8/3.2)=~85.

So, about 85 tons for two astronauts at EML2. Obviously much more for the actual IMLEO, but that's dependent on propulsive technology used to get there. 85 tons isn't bad.

EDIT: I think full hypergolic would be better than using kerolox, simply because we know how to store hypergolic fuels for decades. To counter-act, we can assume .9km/s each way into/out of mars capture, to get basically the same total mass at EML2. I had forgotten at first that Blok D was kerolox.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/21/2013 04:37 AM
(assuming its manned).

They are sufficiently vague about that aren't they?

Maybe it's something else...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 04:41 AM
(assuming its manned).

They are sufficiently vague about that aren't they?

Maybe it's something else...
I'd actually welcome that, since it'd be evidence they might be able to actually pull it off.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Hauerg on 02/21/2013 04:54 AM
IF it is a manned mission and IF it is 2018 the only thing I can think of is a ONE man FLYBY mission. Mars (plus maybe Venus). I do not think there is any chance of going into orbit this time around.
Shoukd be doable w F9H (2 of them?)

Get Red Bull as sponsor and design a mission logo that can be seen on TV when watching racing cars.
Their image can handle LOC
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Bubbinski on 02/21/2013 05:07 AM
Is there existing tech that would allow them to land someone on Mars and get them back to the ship?  Would the Dragon capsule be capable of land touchdowns by then?  Or as others have mentioned would this be a Mars flyby mission?  Maybe a Phobos landing?

A crewed Mars mission 5 years from now sounds to me kind of "adventurous", I don't know if they'd be able to pull something like that off in that timeframe, after all it wouldn't be till at least 2030 till NASA gets there, if they get funded.  But I wish Inspiration Mars luck!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 05:37 AM
Landing and ascent is out of the picture for 2018, manned or unmanned.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 06:08 AM
Landing and ascent is out of the picture for 2018, manned or unmanned.
Why?

Edit:
Just a 2 cent guess. ( one person from Biosphere 2 )
Green house on Mars surface ( unmanned ).
Grow vegetables that mature quickly.
Return them to Earth.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 06:17 AM
Landing and ascent is out of the picture for 2018, manned or unmanned.
Why?
The technology isn't developed (well, i suppose you could do an unmanned landing and ascent, but it'd mean using the enormously expensive Skycrane technology). Surprisingly, we do actually have the technology already for a manned orbital mission. So do the Russians.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 09:38 AM
So, Mars flyby huh? Where's the pretty website and indiegogo fundraiser?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/21/2013 10:00 AM
May I ask one of our gurus here to make some calculations how a voyage of 501 days looks like with a start in 2018? Fly-by? Mars orbit? Anything else?

Second, if paragon is involved and they really like to start in 2018 they need already be finished with a long duration ECLSS and have tested it for the last 500 days or so.

Missing link will be a return capsule, a habitat, a rocket and the complete mission package, like planing, communication, etc.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 10:28 AM
It's actually quite simple, when you think of it:

* Bigelow hab module;
* Hydrolox kick stage (maybe a dual-engine Centaur as per Golden Spike's idea);
* SEP sustainer;
* Remote assembly at EML-2;
* CST-100 or Dragon CRV, launched to EML-2 by Falcon Heavy.

This is completely sufficient for a free-return Mars flyby; heck you could use a different trajectory and include a Venus flyby too! It's still amazingly dangerous but, and let's be clear here, it's their lives and money to risk.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/21/2013 10:30 AM
Think of 2x Dragons docked to a central 'Node' module (aluminium or kevlar) that has a life support system, at least 1000 cubic feet of habitable volume, internal 'walls' lined with water tanks and high-density polyethylene, lots of spare parts for the life support system, lots of rehydratable and canned goods... The back end of one or both Dragons is attached to a large storable-fueled propulsion module with extra solar panels. Keep the crew down to two Astronauts and launch the stack of modules out of low Earth orbit with a 'ganged' set of LOX/kerosene propulsion stages - perhaps based on the Falcon 9 second stage.

The above list of hardware would be good enough for a flyby Mars mission - perhaps quite close to the surface during at least a partial daylight pass to relay back high-definition television pictures and commentary from the crew. When the module stack nears Earth, the crew casts off for a high-speed Earth direct re-entry with the rest of the hardware discarded into solar orbit...

Such a mission could be perceived as a stunt, yes. But it would also be a very bold and exciting mission, at least the historical equal of Apollo 8. To Mr Tito and his partners - GO!! Give this a shot. If it fails at least it will be a MAGNIFICENT failure.

Note: My drawings for the mission elements - anyone wanna have a go at linking them together in Photoshop into a 'train' of mission modules? I don't have Photoshop...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: thomson on 02/21/2013 11:02 AM
What if that is one way one person mission? It would decrease the weight budget a lot and make it easier to pull off.

Think about a multi-millionaire that is diagnosed with a a cancer (or other terminal illness) and has only couple years left. There are couple of reasons one would decide to do such a thing.

First would be to fulfill a childhood dream.

Second, you can't take your money to your grave, so you may spend it on something.

Third would be ego based. You managed to have multi-million fortune? Thousands other folks did that as well, you're not special. You want to be remembered forever and have your name in every history book? Here's a trip for you.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/21/2013 11:06 AM
A one-person mission might not even need the Node Module I mentioned above - maybe just two Dragons (for redundancy) docked nose-to-nose or maybe one Dragon and one Node/supply module, along with a couple of propulsion stages using hypergolic propellants. Elon's engineers could engine them with pairs of multi-restart Super Dracos.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/21/2013 11:44 AM
A one-person flyby mission is certainly doable. Incredibly dangerous, yes, but doable. But if you are a billionaire with a huge ego and maybe not much left to live for on Earth, then why not. Either way, your name in the history books forever; in essence it would be today's version of buying your way to immortality. Heck, if I had billions and knew that I only have a few years left to live, I'd probably do it myself. As noted, I can't take my money into the Afterlife anway. But to be the first human to fly past Mars! Ego trip if there ever was one.

Biggest issue and difficulty would probably be to not go insane out there all by myself during the loooooong trip...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 12:09 PM
* Bigelow hab module;
* Hydrolox kick stage (maybe a dual-engine Centaur as per Golden Spike's idea);
* SEP sustainer;
* Remote assembly at EML-2;
* CST-100 or Dragon CRV, launched to EML-2 by Falcon Heavy.

...  it's their lives and money to risk.

Can Tito afford even one item from that list? Rich man but IIRC not a billionaire.

inspirationmarsfoundation.org and .com were registered .. today .. by a norwegian fellow. Member of Mars expedition or fast domain name entrepreneurship?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/21/2013 12:18 PM
inspirationmarsfoundation.org and .com were registered .. today .. by a norwegian fellow. Member of Mars expedition or fast domain name entrepreneurship?

Foundation was registered in Delaware end of january this year. So it looks like more like a domain grabber than someone involved. I'm sure, the foundation has already the domains they wanted.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 12:27 PM
* Bigelow hab module;
* Hydrolox kick stage (maybe a dual-engine Centaur as per Golden Spike's idea);
* SEP sustainer;
* Remote assembly at EML-2;
* CST-100 or Dragon CRV, launched to EML-2 by Falcon Heavy.

...  it's their lives and money to risk.

Can Tito afford even one item from that list? Rich man but IIRC not a billionaire.

A super-cheap free-return flyby mission with one or two crew involves just a dual Dragon (Dragonrider and Dragon-lab), the Dragonrider having the SEP sustainer motors in its trunk and the initial impulse being provided by a series of stacked metholox Falcon Heavy upper stages.

Naturally, this would be even riskier as there would be less margin for contingency supplies and weight/cost limits might mean there is no effective abort-during-escape burn option.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: daj24 on 02/21/2013 01:39 PM
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  That’s about 90 people per day.  And we are going to get all angsty if one or two don't make it in a LOC on a very adventurist mission?  If the chances of success were good I would give it a go!  We have become very risk adverse as a nation.  Yet we still do mountain climbing, skydiving, base jumping, etc. so what is wrong with a little bit of Mars fly-bying? 
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: ChileVerde on 02/21/2013 01:46 PM
May I ask one of our gurus here to make some calculations how a voyage of 501 days looks like with a start in 2018? Fly-by? Mars orbit? Anything else?

There's what looks to be a relevant set of tables at http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/sched.html but I haven't looked at them closely yet.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 01:53 PM
I think it is a trip for some mice or something.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/21/2013 01:53 PM
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  That’s about 90 people per day. 

This is a lousy way to make an argument. Yeah, maybe 90 people per day die in auto accidents, but what is the death rate per journey? If somebody told you that there was a 50% chance that you would be killed every time you got behind the wheel of your car would you ever drive? At what point is that accident rate low enough for you to do it? Would you do it if there was only a 1% fatality rate? (Work it out in your head. You'll realize that even at 1%, there's a pretty good chance you'll be dead in a few years.)

You're making an absolutist comparison when a relative comparison is called for.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: ChefPat on 02/21/2013 02:12 PM
May I ask one of our gurus here to make some calculations how a voyage of 501 days looks like with a start in 2018? Fly-by? Mars orbit? Anything else?

There's what looks to be a relevant set of tables at http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/sched.html but I haven't looked at them closely yet.
According to this it can't be done in 501 days.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/21/2013 02:14 PM
As I've mentioned to a few people offline, there's going to be an IEEE paper discussing the mission that will be presented in about two weeks at their aerospace conference. Jeff Foust was able to dig that out and get a copy, and provides some details here:

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/21/new-insights-on-that-private-crewed-mars-mission/

Key points (that I feel ok sharing since Jeff made them public):

* Two person mission
* Free-return trajectory that flies by Mars
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Modified Dragon spacecraft
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

While I'm not a manned spacecraft guru by any stretch of the imagination, my read of the paper left me feeling pretty confident that the idea was technically feasible (ambitious? yes. balsy? yes. aggressive mass targets? yes. achievable? probably.)

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: yg1968 on 02/21/2013 02:24 PM
No habitat module?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: DLR on 02/21/2013 02:29 PM
If it's a flyby with a single Dragon spacecraft, I give this a greater chance of becoming a reality than the Golden Spike Lunar proposal. All you need is a Falcon Heavy and a modified Dragon with a beefed-up ECLSS and TPS.

It could fly, if they find sponsors and if Falcon Heavy is ready till 2018. Otherwise they'll have to try again in 2031.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 02:31 PM
As I've mentioned to a few people offline, there's going to be an IEEE paper discussing the mission that will be presented in about two weeks at their aerospace conference. Jeff Foust was able to dig that out and get a copy, and provides some details here:

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/21/new-insights-on-that-private-crewed-mars-mission/

Key points (that I feel ok sharing since Jeff made them public):

* Two person mission
* Free-return trajectory that flies by Mars
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Modified Dragon spacecraft
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

While I'm not a manned spacecraft guru by any stretch of the imagination, my read of the paper left me feeling pretty confident that the idea was technically feasible (ambitious? yes. balsy? yes. aggressive mass targets? yes. achievable? probably.)

~Jon
Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards). If you can get people who don't mind being cramped for a year and a half... Maybe pick really small people? ;)

But seriously, this is within the realm of the possible.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 02:39 PM
No habitat module?

I guess it's doable but the lack of room for exercise equipment will probably mean an unpleasant return to gravity. :o


Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards).

Robot, don't forget that was a Mir mission.  That means a much larger living space and exercise equipment to stop muscle and bone degeneration.  I'm sure a little mitigation can be achieved by use of medicines and food supplements but the very tight mass budget will make it difficult to do as much as I'm sure most space medical experts would be happy with.

Oh, it's doable but it would probably mean a long hospital stay after splash down/landing.  I'd still be happier with a Dragonlab at the other end for more consumables storage space and room for exercise equipment and maybe even some in-flight science equipment.

My preferred escape burn configuration: [EDS1][EDS2][Dragonlab][Dragonrider][In-flightPropulsionUnit]
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/21/2013 02:39 PM
Put a BEAM on top of it and you would like have a nice spacecraft to fly with it...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 02:41 PM
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  That’s about 90 people per day. 

This is a lousy way to make an argument. Yeah, maybe 90 people per day die in auto accidents, but what is the death rate per journey? If somebody told you that there was a 50% chance that you would be killed every time you got behind the wheel of your car would you ever drive? At what point is that accident rate low enough for you to do it? Would you do it if there was only a 1% fatality rate? (Work it out in your head. You'll realize that even at 1%, there's a pretty good chance you'll be dead in a few years.)

You're making an absolutist comparison when a relative comparison is called for.

Who is making the wrong comparison here?

Would I use my car to communte every day with a 1% chance of death? Certainly not.

Would I take that ride to Mars with a 1% chance of death? Certainly yes.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: spectre9 on 02/21/2013 02:42 PM
So who's the billionaire?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 02:44 PM
I guess it's doable but the lack of room for exercise equipment will probably mean an unpleasant return to gravity. :o

Some elastic ribbons can make nice exercise equipment. Maybe a vibrator plate could fit into the weight budget. I have high hopes for those for long microgravity trips.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: StephenB on 02/21/2013 02:52 PM
501 days? Levi's sponsorship? Remember, you heard it here first. ;)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: spectre9 on 02/21/2013 02:59 PM
Doesn't pass the Jerry Maguire test it seems..... NEXT!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 03:02 PM
...

Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards).

Robot, don't forget that was a Mir mission.  That means a much larger living space and exercise equipment to stop muscle and bone degeneration.  I'm sure a little mitigation can be achieved by use of medicines and food supplements but the very tight mass budget will make it difficult to do as much as I'm sure most space medical experts would be happy with. ...
The Mir guys just had an exercise bike and resistive/compressive garments, could easily fit in a Dragon. I don't believe they had the resistance training or treadmill of ISS.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 03:15 PM
...

Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards).

Robot, don't forget that was a Mir mission.  That means a much larger living space and exercise equipment to stop muscle and bone degeneration.  I'm sure a little mitigation can be achieved by use of medicines and food supplements but the very tight mass budget will make it difficult to do as much as I'm sure most space medical experts would be happy with. ...

The Mir guys just had an exercise bike and resistive/compressive garments, could easily fit in a Dragon. I don't believe they had the resistance training or treadmill of ISS.

Yeah, but don't forget all the other things that also have to fit in there - specifically 500 days' consumables for two crew.  I'm pretty sure that, at least at launch, they'll be wedged in their smaller-than-normal-spec seats like the astronauts were during Project Gemini and will literally have to eat themselves free over a period of months.  Yes, I'm saying that they'll be trapped in their launch couches for a very, very long time.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 03:32 PM

The Mir guys just had an exercise bike and resistive/compressive garments, could easily fit in a Dragon. I don't believe they had the resistance training or treadmill of ISS.

Yeah, but don't forget all the other things that also have to fit in there - specifically 500 days' consumables for two crew.  I'm pretty sure that, at least at launch, they'll be wedged in their smaller-than-normal-spec seats like the astronauts were during Project Gemini and will literally have to eat themselves free over a period of months.  Yes, I'm saying that they'll be trapped in their launch couches for a very, very long time.

Eating through won't help unless they have a means to get rid of the waste. I think the modification would include some inflatable module that contains most of the consumables.

At least such a flight would clarify a lot about the radiation issue.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 03:41 PM
get rid of the waste ... the radiation issue.

Don't get rid of the waste, use it. Call it Mitigate Radiation HArm turNKEY concept.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/21/2013 04:02 PM
Doesn't pass the Jerry Maguire test it seems..... NEXT!

They haven't even had the press conference yet, and we only have technical details leaked from one paper, and you're already writing the idea off? While I agree that without "the money", they won't go anywhere, I for one will at least reserve judgement until after the press conference.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/21/2013 04:08 PM
My question is "why do this", other than the coolness factor. What meaningful science or exploration or exploitation can be accomplished? 

Long duration is about all I came up with. Or is the speculation that they are going to have some really cool instruments to do observations with as they fly by?

I hope they pick a pair of people who REALLY like each other. :) Not a lot of privacy
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: StephenB on 02/21/2013 04:11 PM
My question is "why do this"

Exploration. One potential upside I see with all of these new ventures is that success in one could lift all boats by increased involvement, mindshare, participation, and funding. Success can breed investment.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: strangequark on 02/21/2013 04:20 PM
May I ask one of our gurus here to make some calculations how a voyage of 501 days looks like with a start in 2018? Fly-by? Mars orbit? Anything else?

There's what looks to be a relevant set of tables at http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/sched.html but I haven't looked at them closely yet.
According to this it can't be done in 501 days.

Point of note that 501 days is about right for an Earth-Venus-Mars-Earth free return trajectory

http://cmapspaceexp.ihmc.us/rid=1JWVZ8RM5-TQKTP4-18RG/Mars%20Free%20Returns%20Via%20Gravity%20Assist%20from%20Venus.pdf (http://cmapspaceexp.ihmc.us/rid=1JWVZ8RM5-TQKTP4-18RG/Mars%20Free%20Returns%20Via%20Gravity%20Assist%20from%20Venus.pdf)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: yg1968 on 02/21/2013 04:22 PM
So who's the billionaire?

Dennis Tito but he is not a billionaire. He had a net worth of $200M prior to his ISS trip.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/21/2013 04:26 PM
My question is "why do this"

Exploration.

Sorry I didn't ask my question clearly enough... exploration of what? What exactly are two guys in a capsule flying by Mars going to be able to see or explore. What instruments are reasonable to put in (on? through the walls of?) a Dragon?

One potential upside I see with all of these new ventures is that success in one could lift all boats by increased involvement, mindshare, participation, and funding. Success can breed investment.
Agreed. Plus coolness factor as I said.

Sorry if I come off as a skeptic but this seems dilutive. Put the money in Phobos ISRU instead, although I guess you could argue that takes a LOT more money than two men in a can. (or a man and a woman?)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 04:28 PM
Point of note that 501 days is about right for an Earth-Venus-Mars-Earth free return trajectory

http://cmapspaceexp.ihmc.us/rid=1JWVZ8RM5-TQKTP4-18RG/Mars%20Free%20Returns%20Via%20Gravity%20Assist%20from%20Venus.pdf (http://cmapspaceexp.ihmc.us/rid=1JWVZ8RM5-TQKTP4-18RG/Mars%20Free%20Returns%20Via%20Gravity%20Assist%20from%20Venus.pdf)

Would that fit in with this quote from the NewSpace Journal?

Quote
NASA would also have a role in this mission in terms of supporting key ECLSS and thermal protection system technology development

Thermal protection for conditions during the venus flyby?

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 04:29 PM
My question is "why do this", other than the coolness factor. What meaningful science or exploration or exploitation can be accomplished?

The primary objective is to prove that it can be done - to prove that humans can survive the trip to Mars and back to Earth and that it doesn't have to be a multi-billion dollar project requiring around a dozen SHLV launches and a huge spacecraft like something out of a sci-fi movie.

That is where the 'Inspiration' comes from in the foundation name - to inspire people to emulate where they have gone before and inspire the decision-makers to realise that it does not have to be ruinously expensive and require enormous technology development programs.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: strangequark on 02/21/2013 04:31 PM
Thermal protection for conditions during the venus flyby?

Thermal protection for when you reenter the Earth's atmosphere while screaming in at 14 km/s.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/21/2013 04:37 PM
My question is "why do this", other than the coolness factor. What meaningful science or exploration or exploitation can be accomplished?

The primary objective is to prove that it can be done - to prove that humans can survive the trip to Mars and back to Earth and that it doesn't have to be a multi-billion dollar project requiring around a dozen SHLV launches and a huge spacecraft like something out of a sci-fi movie.

That is where the 'Inspiration' comes from in the foundation name - to inspire people to emulate where they have gone before and inspire the decision-makers to realise that it does not have to be ruinously expensive and require enormous technology development programs.

OK, yes... Just like climbing Everest the first time didn't really advance the state of the art in mountain climbing THAT much, but no one had done it and doing it proved it could be done. I'm in.

So then, what useful science can be done without raising mission cost too much.. is it at all possible to do much useful observing of things? A free return trajectory doesn't give chances for collecting much of anything, no... so all you can do is look presumably...

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 05:05 PM
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

What's FH's TMI capability? Thought D4H beats it even to GTO. Isn't Paragon there to provide the ECLSS.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 05:05 PM
I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.


Is this kind of trajectory really only possible at this time and 2035 again or is that trajectory possible with one Falcon Heavy only at these dates and it could be done with more lift or with two launches more frequently?

I would guess the second but can't really know.

Edit: If Venus were really involved it is probably the first.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 05:11 PM
I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.

Minimum energy trajectory opportunities?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_windows (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_windows)

Quote
The minimum-energy launch windows for a Martian expedition occur at intervals of approximately two years and two months, i.e. 780 days (the planet's synodic period with respect to Earth).[11] In addition, the lowest available transfer energy varies on a roughly 16-year cycle. For example, there was a minimum in the 1969 and 1971 launch windows, rising to a peak in the late 1970s, and hitting another low in 1986 and 1988

edit: added last sentence.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Danderman on 02/21/2013 05:17 PM
It is amazing how everyone responds to these "news" items by posting their own personal architecture and subdesigns, as if they were in charge of the project, and virtually no one focuses on whether these proposals are going anywhere.

It's all about the Bucks, not the Buck Rogers.

Posts about the economics and the potential of the principals to raise the money are worthwhile. Guesses about the paint jobs of their spaceships are kind of worthless.

It is very possible that the actual commercial systems that fly to the Moon or Mars or the asteroids may be very different from your guesses.

Geez, there could be some Saudi prince behind this one who owns a company that makes giant ion drives that can get a crew to Mars in 30 days. Speculating about this stuff is pointless.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Danderman on 02/21/2013 05:18 PM
I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.

Simple.

They had to pick a launch window, why not an early one?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Chalmer on 02/21/2013 05:20 PM
I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.

It is because of the planetary alignment, so you can do a free return flight.

something like in this picture.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Zed_Noir on 02/21/2013 05:21 PM
So then, what useful science can be done without raising mission cost too much.. is it at all possible to do much useful observing of things? A free return trajectory doesn't give chances for collecting much of anything, no...

Drop off some orbiters from the mission spacecraft. After all, the  instruments on most space probes usually don't mass that much.

If the flight is Earth-Venus-Mars-Earth free return trajectory than you might able to deploy some short duration orbiter around Venus or even Venusian atmospheric probes.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: strangequark on 02/21/2013 05:24 PM
It is amazing how everyone responds to these "news" items by posting their own personal architecture and subdesigns, as if they were in charge of the project, and virtually no one focuses on whether these proposals are going anywhere.

It's all about the Bucks, not the Buck Rogers.

Sure, but hypothetical architectures help with getting an idea as to how monumental an undertaking this would be, and the level of funding they would need for us to take them seriously.

Answer is, it's not as daunting as it might look at first. Give them a billionaire (or two) and things could get exciting.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 05:25 PM
If there would be a Venus flyby too why doesn't the press release advertize it? It's just "historic journey to Mars and back". Surely Venus flyby would be as historic?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/21/2013 05:27 PM
What sort of mission cost are we looking at here?  The launch vehicle, Dragon capsule, consumables and fuel alone have to push this to $500M+?  Add in 4-5 years of preparation, training, etc...  Could this be done for <= $1B? 

Where is the money coming from?  I'm sure they could get some commercial sponsors and maybe even an exclusive TV deal that would pay some bills, but even that wouldn't get all the way to $1B I don't expect...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/21/2013 05:28 PM
Drop off some orbiters from the mission spacecraft. After all, the  instruments on most space probes usually don't mass that much.

If the flight is Earth-Venus-Mars-Earth free return trajectory than you might able to deploy some short duration orbiter around Venus or even even Venusian atmospheric probes.
Danderman's admonishments notwithstanding...  :P

Presumably it would not be too hard to adapt a microsat deployer that is normally on the second stage to the Dragon trunk, so ya.

Forgot about dropping things off.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: strangequark on 02/21/2013 05:28 PM
If there would be a Venus flyby too why doesn't the press release advertize it? It's just "historic journey to Mars and back". Surely Venus flyby would be as historic?

Yes, though Mars is something we'd like to land on one day, so it's understandable why they emphasize it. I don't see how they do this other than EVME. The other free return trajectories have a lot longer TOF.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/21/2013 05:29 PM
What sort of mission cost are we looking at here?  The launch vehicle, Dragon capsule, consumables and fuel alone have to push this to $500M+?  Add in 4-5 years of preparation, training, etc...  Could this be done for <= $1B? 

Where is the money coming from?  I'm sure they could get some commercial sponsors and maybe even an exclusive TV deal that would pay some bills, but even that wouldn't get all the way to $1B I don't expect...

Make sure it's a man and a woman and they REALLY like each other, and broadcast vid??? But no, "porn on the internet wants to be free" so I don't see that as raising hundreds of millions

Billionaire funding seems the most reliable source.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 05:32 PM
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

What's FH's TMI capability? Thought D4H beats it even to GTO. Isn't Paragon there to provide the ECLSS.

If I remember the FH launch presser correctly it's about 9,000kg through TMI but that's just a recollection and extrapolation from Wikipedia; it thus might be subject to (gross) error.  Also, that's TMI with a kerolox upper stage (~350s).  Tito might want Musk to provide the methalox upper stage (~380s) that could boost the mass budget a bit.


[edit]
TMI mass corrected
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/21/2013 05:40 PM
Make sure it's a man and a woman and they REALLY like each other, and broadcast vid??? But no, "porn on the internet wants to be free" so I don't see that as raising hundreds of millions

Billionaire funding seems the most reliable source.

Well, having a man and a woman that REALLY like each other would probably be good so we don't have the first murder in space.  Spending almost 2 years together with someone in a tiny Dragon capsule would seriously...strain...any relationship.

But realistically, I think a TV deal would make some money.  Not as a reality show per se, but exclusive interviews, video, etc...  But, I don't think it would make that much since watching them just float there would get old after awhile.   
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 05:43 PM
I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.

It is because of the planetary alignment, so you can do a free return flight.

something like in this picture.

That is what I suspected if it really involves a Venus flyby. But it is weird, that would not be mentioned.

Well, maybe they want to hold back that bombshell for the press conference.

But if 2018 and 2035 are dates for that trajectory that would be interesting and probably a giveaway.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Space Pete on 02/21/2013 05:45 PM
So they want to keep 2 people confined inside a Dragon for 500 days?

Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash? How are they going to develop ECLSS that can last that long without the ability to deliver replacement parts (considering the failure rate of the ISS ECLSS)? How will they fit all that closed-loop ECLSS inside a Dragon (considering the size of the ISS ECLSS) and still maintain some usable living space?

And above all, how will they pay for it all?

Sorry, not convinced.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Danderman on 02/21/2013 05:45 PM
I would recommend you guys putting all your concepts on how to accomplish this mission over in the "Advanced Concepts" section, and leave this thread for actual information about this project.

For most people, wading through pages of "fan-wanking" personal concepts to find a post with actual information is not fun. That is what the Advanced Concepts section is for.

Let's please keep this thread for information about Tito's project, not YOUR project.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 05:47 PM
it's about 9,000kg through TMI

So it's either really small people or multiple launches.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 05:53 PM
it's about 9,000kg through TMI

So it's either really small people or multiple launches.


But what would the mass for that Venus flyby trajectory be?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 06:02 PM
But what would the mass for that Venus flyby trajectory be?

About the same or even slightly less? In Chalmer's image Venus injection speed is listed at 4.43km/s. TMI dv is about the same, Wiki lists 4.3km/s. AIUI the Venus path is taken when velocity change is retrograde in relation to Earth's orbit, Mars injection prograde.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Danderman on 02/21/2013 06:05 PM
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31166.msg1015482#msg1015482

A new thread for technical issues about this proposal.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/21/2013 06:08 PM
So they want to keep 2 people confined inside a Dragon for 500 days?

Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash? How are they going to develop ECLSS that can last that long without the ability to deliver replacement parts (considering the failure rate of the ISS ECLSS)? How will they fit all that closed-loop ECLSS inside a Dragon (considering the size of the ISS ECLSS) and still maintain some usable living space?

The IEEE paper covers those technical questions.

Quote
And above all, how will they pay for it all?

Sorry, not convinced.

That's what I'm more interested in. One difference between this and a lot of the other big space plans recently announced is that this is a non-profit project, not a for-profit venture. This gives it different funding dynamics. Not sure if it makes funding *easier*, but it's definitely a different beast. Also we don't know yet if Tito is planning on putting in any of his money, and if so how much. 

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/21/2013 06:18 PM
If there would be a Venus flyby too why doesn't the press release advertize it?

No Venus flyby, although it does get close to Venus' orbit when the planet is not nearby. Aerocapture at Earth, then reentry.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 06:19 PM
If there would be a Venus flyby too why doesn't the press release advertize it?

No Venus flyby, although it does get close to Venus' orbit when the planet is not nearby. Aerocapture at Earth, then reentry.
That would be pretty sweet, though...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Space Pete on 02/21/2013 06:35 PM
Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash?

Oh, and I forgot to add exercise equipment.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 06:36 PM
Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash?

Oh, and I forgot to add exercise equipment.
Mir-style equipment would fit in a Dragon.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 06:55 PM
Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash?

Oh, and I forgot to add exercise equipment.
Mir-style equipment would fit in a Dragon.

But very little else - see my post about consumables above.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/21/2013 07:15 PM
Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash?

Oh, and I forgot to add exercise equipment.
Mir-style equipment would fit in a Dragon.

But very little else - see my post about consumables above.
Regardless, if you have a minimalist architecture, you judge it based on the smallest reasonable size of equipment, not the largest (ISS). You could fit enough food in one or two cubic meters with ultra-efficient packaging.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Archibald on 02/21/2013 08:00 PM
Reminds me of Bob Zubrin Athena double flyby

http://pdf.aiaa.org/getfile.cfm?urlX=85%26%5D0%3BU%2BDN%26S7R%20CMU%24CBQ%3A%2B64K8%26%5FOGJ%0A&urla=%25%2ARH%27%21P%2C%20%0A&urlb=%21%2A%20%20%20%0A&urlc=%21%2A0%20%20%0A&urle=%27%2B%22D%22%23PJCU0%20%20%0A

Quote
Four Protons are then used to lift to orbit and mate with the hab four storable propulsion stages, each with a propellant mass of 18 tonnes and a dry mass of 2 tonnes, and an Isp of 326.5 (i.e. Russian
RD-0210 N2O4/UDMH engines).
(Briz-M ?)
This combination can throw 26 tonnes onto TMI with a 03 of 18
km2/s2.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/21/2013 08:19 PM
Dear press who go to this press conference, please ask the hard questions this time. We're disinterested in hearing another sales pitch. The hard questions are:

1. How much money do you have?
2. Where are you going to find the shortfall?

If they can't answer these questions, the adjective "dreamer" should appear in your article.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: GalacticIntruder on 02/21/2013 08:19 PM
Certainly more plausible than Mars One, but just as inspirational and high risk, which is the whole reason to do a Mission that no human has ever done. Even if the 2 crew members die, if they travel farther than anyone else, it will be worth it. Various cliches apply.
 

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 08:28 PM
1 ) 1 FH for hypergolic EDS
2 ) 1 F9 for crew capsule
3 ) 1 F9 for habitat module ( consumable, exercise equipment, back up life support , EVA, ect. )

2 and 3 mass within the ability of the EDS for given mission for crew of two. Would this be plausible?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 08:34 PM
Dear press who go to this press conference, please ask the hard questions this time. We're disinterested in hearing another sales pitch. The hard questions are:

1. How much money do you have?
2. Where are you going to find the shortfall?

If they can't answer these questions, the adjective "dreamer" should appear in your article.

3. How will they test a crew return vehicle before the possible mission for reentry?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/21/2013 08:42 PM
3. How will they test a crew return vehicle before the possible mission for reentry?

Launch one on an LV with a lot of spare lift capability and have it re-enter from a very high elliptical orbit, essentially what NASA is doing with EFT-1.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/21/2013 08:46 PM
3. How will they test a crew return vehicle before the possible mission for reentry?
Launch one on an LV with a lot of spare lift capability and have it re-enter from a very high elliptical orbit, essentially what NASA is doing with EFT-1.

Or try it untested and count on the maths and simulations.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rcoppola on 02/21/2013 08:52 PM
Dear press who go to this press conference, please ask the hard questions this time. We're disinterested in hearing another sales pitch. The hard questions are:

1. How much money do you have?
2. Where are you going to find the shortfall?

If they can't answer these questions, the adjective "dreamer" should appear in your article.

Yes, yes and...YES.
This could be incredibly exciting. But we've been down this rabbit hole a number of times over the last year or so.

How much, who's paying, who's going and exactly how are you getting there and back?

Answer those within a reasonable sphere of specificity and hell, I'll throw in some couch change myself.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Chalmer on 02/21/2013 08:55 PM
What sort of mission cost are we looking at here?  The launch vehicle, Dragon capsule, consumables and fuel alone have to push this to $500M+?  Add in 4-5 years of preparation, training, etc...  Could this be done for <= $1B? 

Where is the money coming from?  I'm sure they could get some commercial sponsors and maybe even an exclusive TV deal that would pay some bills, but even that wouldn't get all the way to $1B I don't expect...

Well to speculate a little on where to money could come from, if this indeed turns out to be sending humans on a mars flyby free return mission.

Red Bull spent around $690 mill. over five years (2005-2009) on Formula One (They sponsor two teams). So they have the commitment and willingness to spend a high amount of money. They fit the bill for sponsoring something like this, especially since the massive success of the Baumgartner jump.
Not to mention that Dr. Jonathan Clark was on the Baumgartner team.

Now I'm not saying they will foot the whole thing, but they could be a significant sponsor. I'm sure if it gets going, then there are others that would want to join the team aswell.


And Tito can probably fund the whole thing until the initial studies have been made, so sponsors can enter later when there is some assurance that it is technically possible.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 08:55 PM
3. How will they test a crew return vehicle before the possible mission for reentry?

Launch one on an LV with a lot of spare lift capability and have it re-enter from a very high elliptical orbit, essentially what NASA is doing with EFT-1.
Or a Lunar free return unmanned?
As long as it is tested first.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Chalmer on 02/21/2013 08:59 PM
So they want to keep 2 people confined inside a Dragon for 500 days?

Where are they going to keep all their food, and water, and spare parts, and trash? How are they going to develop ECLSS that can last that long without the ability to deliver replacement parts (considering the failure rate of the ISS ECLSS)? How will they fit all that closed-loop ECLSS inside a Dragon (considering the size of the ISS ECLSS) and still maintain some usable living space?

The IEEE paper covers those technical questions.

Is this paper publicly available? On L2 maybe? Or do you have it from somewhere else?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 09:01 PM
What sort of mission cost are we looking at here?  The launch vehicle, Dragon capsule, consumables and fuel alone have to push this to $500M+?  Add in 4-5 years of preparation, training, etc...  Could this be done for <= $1B? 

Where is the money coming from?  I'm sure they could get some commercial sponsors and maybe even an exclusive TV deal that would pay some bills, but even that wouldn't get all the way to $1B I don't expect...

Well to speculate a little on where to money could come from, if this indeed turns out to be sending humans on a mars flyby free return mission.

Red Bull spent around $690 mill. over five years (2005-2009) on Formula One (They sponsor two teams). So they have the commitment and willingness to spend a high amount of money. They fit the bill for sponsoring something like this, especially since the massive success of the Baumgartner jump.
Not to mention that Dr. Jonathan Clark was on the Baumgartner team.

Now I'm not saying they will foot the whole thing, but they could be a significant sponsor. I'm sure if it gets going, then there are others that would want to join the team aswell.


And Tito can probably fund the whole thing until the initial studies have been made, so sponsors can enter later when there is some assurance that it is technically possible.
So a daily half hour tv spot per day with high lights?
Plus an internet subscription for live feeds, updates, and past info?
Multiple sponsors?

I would think the would want to send two sets of crews as a back up plan. More for launch failure than in space travel.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/21/2013 09:02 PM
Well to speculate a little on where to money could come from, if this indeed turns out to be sending humans on a mars flyby free return mission.

Red Bull ...

Now I'm not saying they will foot the whole thing, but they could be a significant sponsor. I'm sure if it gets going, then there are others that would want to join the team as well.

And Tito ...

If that's true, they should have this information to announce at the first press conference, including Tito's contributions. I expect they won't though. It'll be yet another "we're looking for sponsors" announcement, which actually means "we've tried looking for sponsors and have only gotten blank stares."

Maybe after the fifth or sixth of these types of announcements the space media stop being suckers for yet another unfunded dream flight (YAUDF?).
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 09:06 PM
Well to speculate a little on where to money could come from, if this indeed turns out to be sending humans on a mars flyby free return mission.

Red Bull ...

Now I'm not saying they will foot the whole thing, but they could be a significant sponsor. I'm sure if it gets going, then there are others that would want to join the team as well.

And Tito ...

If that's true, they should have this information to announce at the first press conference, including Tito's contributions. I expect they won't though. It'll be yet another "we're looking for sponsors" announcement, which actually means "we've tried looking for sponsors and have only gotten blank stares."

Maybe after the fifth or sixth of these types of announcements the space media stop being suckers for yet another unfunded dream flight (YAUDF?).

So what are your cost estimates for such a mission to start with?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 09:10 PM
So a daily half hour tv spot per day with high lights?
Plus an internet subscription for live feeds, updates, and past info?
Multiple sponsors?

If all goes well Joe 6Pack doesn't give a hoot for 99% of the 501 day trek time, only a few days (launch, flyby, reentry) will interest the main stream media and masses. The rest will interest general public as much as nasa-tv (sorry nasa-tv :)).

If things go south no sponsor wants to be associated with the events anymore.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Chalmer on 02/21/2013 09:12 PM
Well to speculate a little on where to money could come from, if this indeed turns out to be sending humans on a mars flyby free return mission.

Red Bull ...

Now I'm not saying they will foot the whole thing, but they could be a significant sponsor. I'm sure if it gets going, then there are others that would want to join the team as well.

And Tito ...

If that's true, they should have this information to announce at the first press conference, including Tito's contributions. I expect they won't though. It'll be yet another "we're looking for sponsors" announcement, which actually means "we've tried looking for sponsors and have only gotten blank stares."

Maybe after the fifth or sixth of these types of announcements the space media stop being suckers for yet another unfunded dream flight (YAUDF?).


Well you might be right. I tend to agree actually, that Red Bull would be wanting to take to glory from day one. Let's see they might be flanked by red bull logos during the presser :)

The sucker part. Well aren't we all suckers and dreamers? Isn't that why we visit this site so much, and make imaginary rockets to take us to mars even before the press conference. At least we can dream for a week :)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/21/2013 09:16 PM
So a daily half hour tv spot per day with high lights?
Plus an internet subscription for live feeds, updates, and past info?
Multiple sponsors?

If all goes well Joe 6Pack doesn't give a hoot for 99% of the 501 day trek time, only a few days (launch, flyby, reentry) will interest the main stream media and masses. The rest will interest general public as much as nasa-tv (sorry nasa-tv :)).

If things go south no sponsor wants to be associated with the events anymore.
Show Big Brother and others like it. And how many people buy magazines about the tv soap opera shows?

Could there be $2B worth of revenue there?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: p51 on 02/21/2013 09:18 PM
Really, does anyone here truly take this seriously? I sure don't. I've talked with people I know at Johnson and Marshall, and all have told me that NASA isn't ready for such a mission and won't be for several years, "...even if they gave us an unlimited budget like we had before Apollo 11" in the words of one. A propulsion guy I know at JSC told me in September that no private company is anywhere near ready for anything beyond what has been done with the Dragon hardware/vehicle.
I was at the Planetary Resources news conference in Seattle last spring and had raised eyebrows for most of that. This whole "Mars flyby in 2018" in my mind makes the asteroid mining concept sound downright plasuable in comparison. At least the mining idea didn't have such a tight timeframe.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 09:23 PM
Show Big Brother and others like it. And how many people buy magazines about the tv soap opera shows?
Big Brothers interest people because there's numerous crazy people doing crazy things, sex and drama to stalk. Two people sitting in a cramped pod eating paste and doing nothing day in and day out plus some space techno babble to go with that would be the most boring "big brother" ever for family 6Pack.

Quote
Could there be $2B worth of revenue there?

IIRC most successful reality-tv (Idols?) in US nets around $200M per season. I fail to see mass attraction for space opera worth $2B in the cards.

edit: #1 Idols estimated revenue $6.67M / half hour

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/american-idol-x-factor-two-half-men-forbes-310128 (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/american-idol-x-factor-two-half-men-forbes-310128)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/21/2013 09:34 PM
Maybe after the fifth or sixth of these types of announcements the space media stop being suckers for yet another unfunded dream flight (YAUDF?).

Well aren't we all suckers and dreamers? Isn't that why we visit this site so much, and make imaginary rockets to take us to mars even before the press conference. At least we can dream for a week :)

It's the media's job to be skeptical, not just regurgitate press releases.

If I want fiction, I'll read some Niven.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/21/2013 09:40 PM
So what are your cost estimates for such a mission to start with?

Starting from the low side.

A Falcon Heavy, a Dragon, maybe a BEAM module. I really don't believe two people with all supplies including food, air, water, sponges for cleaning and clothes for 500 days can fit into a dragon. That would be 250 Million Dollar.

How much is an ECLSS and the mission software?

The part I really don't like is going to Venus orbit, with or without Venus there. The thermal system of Dragon will certainly need some upgrade.

Quote
If I want fiction, I'll read some Niven.

Yes that too, an eBook with 500 novels. Add that to the price. ;D

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/21/2013 09:46 PM
Question: If you would get to go on 501 day Mars flyby trip (or be forced to  ;D), who would you pick to go with you (just one person) ?

I'm torn between Nigella Lawson and Rachael Ray. I want to eat well.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Orbiter on 02/21/2013 10:03 PM
There's a press conference on the 27th, I'll wait to then to make assumptions. It's a cool idea though, I'd be more excited if it was to the moon because then it would have a fair chance of happening.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/21/2013 10:13 PM
So what are your cost estimates for such a mission to start with?

They need between $150M and $500M depending on how many freebies/favors they can pull in and how much risk reduction they have to do.

The bad news is, I think Dennis Tito is the poorest of all the orbital space tourists to fly.

Dennis Tito ~$200M
Mark Shuttleworth ~$500M
Gregory Olsen ~$3B
Anousheh Ansari ~$750M
Charles Simonyi ~$1B
Richard Garriott ~$1.2B
Guy Laliberté ~$2.6B

He'll have to liquidate his entire net worth to fund this himself.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/21/2013 10:22 PM
Starting from the low side.

A Falcon Heavy, a Dragon, maybe a BEAM module. I really don't believe two people with all supplies including food, air, water, sponges for cleaning and clothes for 500 days can fit into a dragon. That would be 250 Million Dollar.

How much is an ECLSS and the mission software?

You guys act like it's just buying off the shelf hardware. That's like saying that all you need to build a house is to just add up the cost of the land, nails, and lumber. You need to pay somebody to design and build it too.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Atlan on 02/22/2013 01:33 AM
This mission would actually give a lot of very valuable data on radiation, psychological and medical issues for long time space trips. If that wouldn't be a huge amount of problems solved for manned exploration with one mission, what is. This mission could actually, if everything works out, silence the sceptics and accelerate a mars landing mission and even if not give a lot of valuable data to make things better next time.

I am really excited about this now :D

EDIT: Do you really think its possible to do this with just a Dragon? I mean you have to store food,water(at least some), bigger life support, sanitation, spare parts etcetc and still have to fit 2 astronauts in there.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/22/2013 01:58 AM
This mission would actually give a lot of very valuable data on radiation, psychological and medical issues for long time space trips. If that wouldn't be a huge amount of problems solved for manned exploration with one mission, what is. This mission could actually, if everything works out, silence the sceptics and accelerate a mars landing mission and even if not give a lot of valuable data to make things better next time.

I am really excited about this now :D

EDIT: Do you really think its possible to do this with just a Dragon? I mean you have to store food,water(at least some), bigger life support, sanitation, spare parts etcetc and still have to fit 2 astronauts in there.
Add habitat module.
1 ) Sanity
2 ) Time away from the other person ( also so one can sleep while the other is awake ).
3 ) consumables storage
4 ) back up life support
5 ) EVA ( for one or both ) ( suit port might be an option )
6 ) ect.

Edit:
Added radiation protection in hab module.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Atlan on 02/22/2013 02:07 AM
Well that seems most reasonable to me as well. Even something like BEAM would be a huge relief for the astronauts i think. My question was more based on the things i have read until now. I only read about one Dragon. I know i know we dont have any real info until the conference. I just asked out of curiosity if they could even consider an only-Dragon mission.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: DougSpace on 02/22/2013 02:42 AM
What about including a space suit and so opening the Dragon hatch early on, push out your supplies tied to a rope and so have more room.  Then about once a month, put on the suit, pull in another month's supply and push out a month's amount of trash.

Then, while passing by Venus & Mars, go for an EVA to get the full experience.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/22/2013 02:47 AM
One Dragon, at least as presently defined, just isn't big enough to support one person for 500 days.  You would need at least 30 cubic m of pressurised, preferably more like 60, for this.  So some kind of transit module seems inevitable.
But I am cautiously excited about this.  You don't have to move existing technology very far to do this mission and the pyshcological barriers broken by it would be enormous.  Much like Gil Eanes rounding Cape Bojador.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/22/2013 02:50 AM
What about including a space suit and so opening the Dragon hatch early on, push out your supplies tied to a rope and so have more room.  Then about once a month, put on the suit, pull in another month's supply and push out a month's amount of trash.

Then, while passing by Venus & Mars, go for an EVA to get the full experience.
Possible suit ports. Could also be used for bringing in items from outside or send items outside the space craft. It is cold or very hot outside so I don't know what if anything should be stored outside except garbage.

EVA for flyby not a bad idea ( prefer a landing  :) ).

For a hab module use a modified Dragon capsule ( not made for reentry ).
Trunk to attach to the EDS.
Hatch replace by suit ports.
Add solar panels.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: DougSpace on 02/22/2013 03:06 AM
For when times get boring, how about "The View From Mars" or "The View Frim Venus".  The astronauts wade in to the day's news giving their own opinions about what should be done.  Although their opinions would be no better than anyone else's the fact alone that they're coming from another planet makes them worth more.

How about shooting commercials?  e.g. A blindfolded taste test between Coke and Pepsi or the like.

How about showing, for the first time, a TV program based upon the astronaut's training, or home life, or participation in Extreme Makeover ______?

How about a contest?  Pay $0.99 and get a chance to win whatever the lotto amount is.  The astronauts reach their hand into a bag and pull out the winning numbers one by one.

In other words, using some creativity, could opportunities for revenue be built in the system?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: joek on 02/22/2013 03:10 AM
One Dragon, at least as presently defined, just isn't big enough to support one person for 500 days.  You would need at least 30 cubic m of pressurised, preferably more like 60, for this.  So some kind of transit module seems inevitable.

Based on NASA's extended mission requirements, a significant portion of which appears to be psychological needs?  Provisions and ECLSS should fit in a smaller volume--assuming "spartan" outfitting, as Jeff Foust from NewSpace Journal (http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/21/new-insights-on-that-private-crewed-mars-mission/) repoted...
Quote
According to the paper, existing environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) technologies would allow such a spacecraft to support two people for the mission, although in Spartan condition. “Crew comfort is limited to survival needs only. For example, sponge baths are acceptable, with no need for showers,” the paper states.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/22/2013 03:15 AM
Even then I think they would be strugging to get the volume down to 20 cubic m.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Zero Zen on 02/22/2013 03:29 AM
The man sure knows how to inspire, I like his spirit.

Psychological needs? Where is the passion to explore the unknown, to immerse one’s self in reaching beyond the horizon? Were I given the honor... I would gladly take such an undertaking, for to live means to risk one’s life for the things worth doing so for. I wonder how the crew selection is being conducted... such a dream... I most sincerely want to be a part of it.

Sadly being deployed I won't have the honor of attending the Q & A in Washington. I am earnestly looking forward to what comes of the conference.

I'd like to meet Mr. Dennis Tito, it's rare now a day that a man still dreams
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/22/2013 03:48 AM
The man sure knows how to inspire, I like his spirit.

Welcome to the forum.

I hope they inspire us with a funding stream this time.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/22/2013 04:49 AM
This sounds like a good idea that probably could cost $200 million to $300 million total to implement including the non recurring engineering and development costs. Using prices that we have seen elsewhere, a Mars free return trajectory mission could cost:

$120 million for a Falcon Heavy (with Raptor US??)
$30 million for a Dragon capsule
$20 million for a 1 - 2 ton Bigelow BEAM module stored in Dragon trunk
$20 million for Paragon ECLSS upgrades to Dragon/BEAM
$10 - $110 million in "other" development/operations costs
________
$200 - $300 million in total costs

The probability of successfully returning 2 people to Earth's surface after a free return trajectory to Mars could be 50% or higher if we look at the histories of probes launched to Mars or the histories of SpaceX Dragon and Falcon flights. If NASA helps, then probability of success may go up and costs (like using deep space communications network for free) might go down.

This would be great marketing for use of SpaceX, Bigelow, Paragon, and other human spaceflight technology similar to the jump in the commercial aviation industry in 1927 after Lindberg was successful on his flight. If the 1st mission is unsuccessful, then the costs should still be low enough that someone else (or the same group with Dennis Tito) could afford to finance a second attempt using better technology like solar electric propulsion, etc. (because the launch windows until 2031 would require a lot more delta V).

Space Adventures claimed to be close to signing 2 people for $300 million to do a commercial free return trajectory mission around the moon, so this commercial Mars mission should be well within the realm of immediate possibility and it might have future customers for a future repeatable business plan.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/22/2013 05:08 AM
I thought that I remembered reading somewhere that an Astronaut requires about 3 to 5 kg a day of consumables including oxygen, water, and food to survive in space. Regenerative life support that can recycle water or oxygen or even food should be able to lower these weights.

If the above is true, then the supplies should be 10 kg a day and 5,000 kg total to keep the 2 Astronauts alive for this 500 day trip to Mars and back if regenerative life support is not used.

I would assume that the whole point of having the Paragon founders from Biosphere-2 involved in this Mars flight would be to design an ECLSS that dramatically lowers this 5,000 kg of life support supplies to some figure much lower by regenerating oxygen, water, and potentially even some human waste into food.

The NASA-JPL papers on the SpaceX Red Dragon flights claim ~ 4,000 kg for the Dragon capsule, 1,000 kg in payload, and 2,000 kg in fuel to supersonically thrust Dragon to the Martian surface. This would mean that we roughly would need a Falcon Heavy (FH) to launch a 4,000 kg Dragon capsule, a 2,000 kg Bigelow BEAM-like module (in the Dragon trunk), and maximum 4,000-kg to 6,000-kg of other "supplies, people, payload, fuel, and stuff" to be within the 10,000 kg to 12,000 kg capability of an FH launch to Mars. The ECLSS from Paragon is going to be a key enabler to lower this weight of "supplies and stuff" to make this all work.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/22/2013 06:23 AM
Welp, if they pull this off (I'll give it 10% chance, for what it's worth), EM-1 is going to look rather pathetic...

They could do better on the fund-raising side simply for the "new" factor: a company like Red Bull might pay a pretty penny to have their name on the first manned spacecraft to visit Mars... The nationality of the crew could be a factor too.

On a personal note, the trigger for me to get interested in orbital dynamics (to the point almost finishing a PhD in it) was a throwaway line in the "Case for Mars" where Zubrin claims that the delta v for Mars free-return is less than a lunar free-return. That's a bit of a stretch (it's technically true for very narrow windows), but the point is, this is not a delta v/propellant-limited mission. It is the systems (ECLSS, power, comm) that will really require the engineering work. I wonder how much of that SpaceX is willing to volunteer...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/22/2013 06:55 AM
The man sure knows how to inspire, I like his spirit.

Welcome to the forum.

I hope they inspire us with a funding stream this time.


Don't be so cynical. At least we can say with great confidence that they have more money than Golden Spike.

Seriously: Dennis Tito flew to ISS for a lot of money against the fierce resistance of NASA. That gives him at least some level of credibility on the funding and organizational side.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/22/2013 07:36 AM
The man sure knows how to inspire, I like his spirit.

Welcome to the forum.

I hope they inspire us with a funding stream this time.


Don't be so cynical.

How is expressing my hope cynical?

Quote
At least we can say with great confidence that they have more money than Golden Spike.

Hopefully.

Quote
Seriously: Dennis Tito flew to ISS for a lot of money against the fierce resistance of NASA. That gives him at least some level of credibility on the funding and organizational side.

yep.. and that credibility will be completely shot if he stands up next week and says "we're looking for sponsors and we're planning to do a crowd funding campaign" :)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ralph Buttigieg on 02/22/2013 08:33 AM
G'day,

I think many hear are forgetting something . This expedition  has more in common  with Raphaela Le Gouvello voyages who  wind surfed the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans or  Justin Jones and James Castrission who were the first to Kayak the Tasman Sea. Its for adventurer-astronauts not NASA-astronauts.  Forgot about the BEAM. Save the extra mass for something else like backups. Put the  consumables in the trunk. In fact wrap them around a air lock so it can do double duty as a solar storm shelter. The astronauts stay in the 10sqM volume of the Dragon.  These are tough adventurer-explorers NASA civil servants.

ta

Ralph
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Kaputnik on 02/22/2013 08:46 AM
What about including a space suit and so opening the Dragon hatch early on, push out your supplies tied to a rope and so have more room.  Then about once a month, put on the suit, pull in another month's supply and push out a month's amount of trash.

Then, while passing by Venus & Mars, go for an EVA to get the full experience.

AFAIK an EVA is quite resource-hungry. You are throwing away a whole cabin of atmosphere when you could be recycling it.
Maybe a better way to have external supplies would be to maximise the amount of systems and tanks stored in the Trunk.

Do we have CO2 scrubbing technology capable of meeting the needs of this mission?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/22/2013 09:02 AM

Quote
Seriously: Dennis Tito flew to ISS for a lot of money against the fierce resistance of NASA. That gives him at least some level of credibility on the funding and organizational side.

yep.. and that credibility will be completely shot if he stands up next week and says "we're looking for sponsors and we're planning to do a crowd funding campaign" :)


Yes, the crowdfunding campaign of Golden Spike is almost painfully embarrassing.

I think a good way to get everybodys attention would be to announce that he has placed a deposit for a FH launch in 2018.

The spacex manifest is pretty full, and they are widely known for highly optimistic schedules. A mars free return trajectory launch can not be delayed, and if they have a long list of commercial customers waiting for their delayed comsat launch in 2018 they won't be able to squeeze in a mars launch unless it is being put on the manifest pretty soon.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/22/2013 09:18 AM
G'day,

I think many hear are forgetting something . This expedition  has more in common  with Raphaela Le Gouvello voyages who  wind surfed the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans or  Justin Jones and James Castrission who were the first to Kayak the Tasman Sea. Its for adventurer-astronauts not NASA-astronauts.  Forgot about the BEAM. Save the extra mass for something else like backups. Put the  consumables in the trunk. In fact wrap them around a air lock so it can do double duty as a solar storm shelter. The astronauts stay in the 10sqM volume of the Dragon.  These are tough adventurer-explorers NASA civil servants.

Dragonrider doesn't have an airlock in the form I've seen it to date, so supplies in the trunk are worthless.  They MUST be either in the Dragon CM or in a module accessible through the Dragonrider's LIDS docking port.

You're right about this being a no-frills, high-odds ride though.  Whoever volunteers for this has to know that they are taking an enormous risk.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/22/2013 09:49 AM
I think a good way to get everybody's attention would be to announce that he has placed a deposit for a FH launch in 2018.

Unfortunately, I hear they've said the opposite: Dragon and Falcon Heavy is not finalized. "The astronauts could ride on any of a range of space vehicles."

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/21/17038750-how-a-millionaire-spaceflier-intends-to-send-astronauts-past-mars-in-2018?lite
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/22/2013 10:03 AM
@ QuantumG,


I would say that Dragonrider/Falcon Heavy represents the most probable selection as other vehicles are further away from completion and this concept has a time-critical departure window.

Nonetheless, yes, this could be done with other types of spacecraft.  For example, you could use  ULA's Orion/ACES hybrid (maybe using a short-cut of the Boeing CST-100 instead of the Lockheed Orion), possibly with a MPLM-derived hab on top of the final propulsion stage.  However, that would be more costly and would take longer to get to flying status.

Another possibility would be to use a Soyuz-derivative.  However, that would seem to contradict the foundation's stated goal of inspiring American industry and popular imagination.

Overall, therefore, I would say that SpaceX's option has a head start on the competition.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/22/2013 10:20 AM
I would say that Dragonrider/Falcon Heavy represents the most probable selection as other vehicles are further away from completion and this concept has a time-critical departure window.

I don't disagree with you, but rklaehn's point was that Olsen could send a clear signal of how serious this effort is by announcing he had paid the deposit on a launch, and it seems clear already that he's not going to be doing that.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/22/2013 10:57 AM
G'day,

I think many hear are forgetting something . This expedition  has more in common  with Raphaela Le Gouvello voyages who  wind surfed the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans or  Justin Jones and James Castrission who were the first to Kayak the Tasman Sea. Its for adventurer-astronauts not NASA-astronauts.  Forgot about the BEAM. Save the extra mass for something else like backups. Put the  consumables in the trunk. In fact wrap them around a air lock so it can do double duty as a solar storm shelter. The astronauts stay in the 10sqM volume of the Dragon. 

Slurs against NASA astronauts aside, 5 cubic m per person just isn't going to work, not for 500 days, no matter how much you offload into the unpressuised trunk.  That's total pressurised volume, free volume is much less, about half to a third.  Five cubic m is about the volume of the toilet in an average house.

Crazy wind surfers and kayakers are still in the open air with the possibility of rescue, the Tasman was crossed by Jones and Castrission in 60 days, Le Gouvello crossed the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans in 58, 89 and 60 days. Going to past Mars is five to nine times longer.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: KelvinZero on 02/22/2013 11:58 AM
I hate space projects that list inspiration as a primary goal. Be inspiring by achieving something worthwhile!

Technology development is so underfunded at the moment. There are all these really worthwhile things that are not being investigated. We could start building something on the moon with robots or figure out if there is ice on phobos or build a functional mars base prototype here on earth for that sort of money. We could do the same mission but stay in LEO, using the money saved to develop and prove a life support system that really is robust for 500 days, or 1000 days, or longer. We could invest it in spaceX for grasshopper or ULA for ACES or depots or Bigelo and possibly even make our money back. instead we get another variation on shooting clowns from cannons.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mmeijeri on 02/22/2013 12:02 PM
The infrastructure serves missions, so if the missions aren't intrinsically valuable, the infrastructure can't be either. The focus on missions is 100% correct, unnecessary infrastructure and technology development are a distraction. The proper time to develop infrastructure and to do technology development is when there is enough demand to justify it.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/22/2013 12:09 PM
I hate space projects that list inspiration as a primary goal. Be inspiring by achieving something worthwhile!

It has been mentioned already. If successful this mission would achieve something very important. It will prove it is possible and make it impossible to hide behind arguments that claim it is not.

Radiation, weightlessness and duration will be demonstrated as not being showstoppers.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 12:27 PM
Radiation, weightlessness and duration will be demonstrated as not being showstoppers.

These are already proved to a great extent. If you want to demonstrate >1 year self-sufficiency and reliability would it not be better to try out this in lunar orbit first, just in case something breaks down and you have to abort?

Tito's mission is that it either works or you may have dead bodies on free return trajectory.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/22/2013 12:30 PM
Radiation, weightlessness and duration will be demonstrated as not being showstoppers.

These are already proved to a great extent. If you want to demonstrate >1 year self-sufficiency and reliability would it not be better to try out this in lunar orbit first, just in case something breaks down and you have to abort?

Tito's mission is that it either works or you may have dead bodies on free return trajectory.

And so what? That's the risk of all explorers. I see this as a real possibility to brake the LEO belt. Let's do it. Will give massive pressure on all state human space activities.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: GoforthSC on 02/22/2013 12:31 PM
I'll be tuning into the press conference on Wednesday hopefully alongside a billion other people envisioning their flight to the red planet whilst adding to the quantum wave to make the private mission happen. Question is will children be able to be taken along and, if so, what is the age cut off for travel? Could I be the first young mom space traveler with my son subsequently growing up on Mars?

Heard bits about this, another exciting but probably needs a load of money, drive:

MEDIA ADVISORY & INVITATION

Feb. 20, 2013                                                                                     

 

The Planets are Aligning for a Once-in-a-Generation Space Journey

Join us for a special press conference at The National Press Club

 

WHAT:

The Inspiration Mars Foundation, a newly formed nonprofit organization led by American space traveler and entrepreneur Dennis Tito, invites you to attend a press conference detailing its plans to take advantage of a unique window of opportunity to launch an historic journey to Mars and back in 501 days, starting in January 2018. This “Mission for America” will generate new knowledge, experience and momentum for the next great era of space exploration. It is intended to encourage all Americans to believe again, in doing the hard things that make our nation great, while inspiring youth through Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education and motivation.

 

The Inspiration Mars Foundation is committed to accelerating America’s human exploration of space as a critical catalyst for future growth, national prosperity, new knowledge and global leadership.

 

WHO:               

·         Miles O’Brien, moderator

·         Dennis Tito, chairman of Inspiration Mars Foundation and the first private space traveler

·         Taber MacCallum, chief executive officer and chief technology officer of Paragon Space Development Corporation and crew member for two-year mission in Biosphere 2

·         Dr. Jonathan Clark, associate professor of Neurology and Space Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and space medicine advisor for the National Space Biomedical Research Institute

·         Jane Poynter, president and chairwoman of Paragon Space Development Corporation and crew member for two-year mission in Biosphere 2

 

WHEN:

Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2013 at 1 p.m.

·         45-minute press conference, followed by Q&A period

 

WHERE:

The National Press Club

529 14th St NW, 13th floor

Washington D.C.




Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/22/2013 12:33 PM
Quote from: RocketmanUS

So a daily half hour tv spot per day with high lights?
Plus an internet subscription for live feeds, updates, and past info?
Multiple sponsors?

I would think the would want to send two sets of crews as a back up plan. More for launch failure than in space travel.

Probably not even that much.  I could see something like daily interviews and highlights (aka, silly zero-G tricks) for the first week or two.  After that, but public will get bored and maybe you could do once a week until you get close to Mars.  Then, back to daily near the Mars encounter and repeat the same sort of pattern as they return to near Earth. 

I could see a TV company paying quite a bit for exclusive rights on that, a few hundred million?  Still probably not enough to fund this ride. 
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/22/2013 12:36 PM
Radiation, weightlessness and duration will be demonstrated as not being showstoppers.

These are already proved to a great extent. If you want to demonstrate >1 year self-sufficiency and reliability would it not be better to try out this in lunar orbit first, just in case something breaks down and you have to abort?

This isn't necessarily about practicality (indeed, I'm not sure that's a criterion at all).  Yes, you can sit in lunar orbit or at one of the EML points for a year but... so what? However, if, half-way through the flight, you get to see and photograph a world and its moons that no human has ever seen with their unaided eyes before then that will be something that will make even the most jaded Joe Six-Pack sit up and say "Wow!" Then they'll be picking up their 'phone or opening an email form to ask their Congressman why NASA isn't doing something like this when that crazy Tito guy has done it.

That's the real goal here, IMHO.  It's to shame NASA into getting out of its "we need to develop a SHLV and build Battlestar Galactica first!" inaction negative feedback loop.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 12:37 PM
And so what? That's the risk of all explorers.

It's a pointless risk when similar mission testing the same things could be carried out with less risk. They'd just fly by Mars, not much exploring there.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 12:43 PM
half-way through the flight, you get to see and photograph a world and its moons that no human has ever seen with their unaided eyes before then that will be something that will make even the most jaded Joe Six-Pack sit up and say "Wow!" Then they'll be picking up their 'phone or opening an email form to ask their Congressman why NASA isn't doing something like this when that crazy Tito guy has done it.

There would be a few days of media hoopla during flyby, and then it will die off. Even during Apollos the public attention faded soon after first mission. 13 rekindled it, briefly. Good news is boring news, bad news make the headlines. Now there's even much greater amount of things fighting for Joe's attention, I'm afraid space would loose even faster now.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/22/2013 12:44 PM
Welp, if they pull this off (I'll give it 10% chance, for what it's worth), EM-1 is going to look rather pathetic...

They could do better on the fund-raising side simply for the "new" factor: a company like Red Bull might pay a pretty penny to have their name on the first manned spacecraft to visit Mars... The nationality of the crew could be a factor too.

On a personal note, the trigger for me to get interested in orbital dynamics (to the point almost finishing a PhD in it) was a throwaway line in the "Case for Mars" where Zubrin claims that the delta v for Mars free-return is less than a lunar free-return. That's a bit of a stretch (it's technically true for very narrow windows), but the point is, this is not a delta v/propellant-limited mission. It is the systems (ECLSS, power, comm) that will really require the engineering work. I wonder how much of that SpaceX is willing to volunteer...

This old paper from NASA-JPL on Mars Free Return Trajectories seems to say that the Dennis Tito mission in 2018 could be accomplished with 8 km/s of delta V in 1.4 years (i.e. 500 days) versus the delta V and time of flight of other Mars free return trajectories of as low as 4 km/s that would take 3 years.
http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/22610/1/97-1121.pdf
This is in comparison to a lunar free return trajectory of 3 km/s to 4 km/s of delta V that would take up to 100X less time.

If 8 km/s is the delta V that they need from LEO, then they might need a second rocket to send them an additional upper stage or more fuel. This assumes that they are using conventional chemical engines.

The difficult part here is the long flight time, and you are correct in saying that this is not necessarily a delta-V/propellant-limited mission, so it would make sense if much of the non recurring engineering cost through 2018 was expended by Paragon on improving the ECLSS, etc.

Paragon has worked with (or around) SpaceX and Bigelow in the past, and Paragon has worked on others capsules and inflatables in the past, so this mission architecture is not limited to only the SpaceX Dragon and the Bigelow inflatable.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: KelvinZero on 02/22/2013 12:56 PM
(a bunch of replies came in that might make this seem repetitive, sorry)

The infrastructure serves missions, so if the missions aren't intrinsically valuable, the infrastructure can't be either. The focus on missions is 100% correct, unnecessary infrastructure and technology development are a distraction. The proper time to develop infrastructure and to do technology development is when there is enough demand to justify it.
Responding to that in full would pull this to far off topic. Suffice it to say that I do not consider this mission intrinsically valuable. Thats why inspiration is in the title. It doesn't achieve those other things we would like.

I hate space projects that list inspiration as a primary goal. Be inspiring by achieving something worthwhile!
It has been mentioned already. If successful this mission would achieve something very important. It will prove it is possible and make it impossible to hide behind arguments that claim it is not.

Radiation, weightlessness and duration will be demonstrated as not being showstoppers.

We pretty much know that anyway. There are obvious reasons why this need not sway anyone not convinced by the existing evidence. A single success that may or may not encounter a significant flare, for which the life support may happen to function throughout does not prove much at all. They are not going to do mars-surface-like activity at the other end. It is a very small sample to prove anything about radiation. We could test all these things much more cheaply and safely and thoroughly sticking closer to home. Using an unrepeatable trajectory also reduces the value of the lesson and development. This is not an Apollo 8 in any sense.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/22/2013 12:57 PM
half-way through the flight, you get to see and photograph a world and its moons that no human has ever seen with their unaided eyes before then that will be something that will make even the most jaded Joe Six-Pack sit up and say "Wow!" Then they'll be picking up their 'phone or opening an email form to ask their Congressman why NASA isn't doing something like this when that crazy Tito guy has done it.

There would be a few days of media hoopla during flyby, and then it will die off. Even during Apollos the public attention faded soon after first mission. 13 rekindled it, briefly. Good news is boring news, bad news make the headlines. Now there's even much greater amount of things fighting for Joe's attention, I'm afraid space would loose even faster now.

I'm not sure that I agree with that cynicism.  In any case, it does not need to be long-lasting.  The furore of a private spacecraft beating NASA to Mars would, IMO at least, last long enough to set off the politicians and that would be the key to getting things movment.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/22/2013 01:05 PM
And so what? That's the risk of all explorers.
It's a pointless risk when similar mission testing the same things could be carried out with less risk. They'd just fly by Mars, not much exploring there.

What a luck, that explorers around the world have not the same mindset like you. And I don't mean this angry about you, but simply that I don't agree with you.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 01:08 PM
I'm not sure that I agree with that cynicism.
It's not cynicism. I rather err towards realism than wishful thinking, despite my own interests in space flight.

Quote
In any case, it does not need to be long-lasting.  The furore of a private spacecraft beating NASA to Mars would, IMO at least, last long enough to set off the politicians

And ... then what? NASA informs that yes they could have done similar quasi-suicide mission long ago but the risks outweigh scientific/exploration returns.

@apace
Quote
simply that I don't agree with you
That's OK  :) mileages on what constitutes useful exploration and what not vary.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/22/2013 01:08 PM
half-way through the flight, you get to see and photograph a world and its moons that no human has ever seen with their unaided eyes before then that will be something that will make even the most jaded Joe Six-Pack sit up and say "Wow!" Then they'll be picking up their 'phone or opening an email form to ask their Congressman why NASA isn't doing something like this when that crazy Tito guy has done it.

There would be a few days of media hoopla during flyby, and then it will die off. Even during Apollos the public attention faded soon after first mission. 13 rekindled it, briefly. Good news is boring news, bad news make the headlines. Now there's even much greater amount of things fighting for Joe's attention, I'm afraid space would loose even faster now.

Someone more sophisticated than "Joe Six Pack" might figure out how to lower the recurring costs of this mission to under $200 million, increase the number of passengers to 4 Astronauts, and increase the flight rate to every 2 years (i.e. every Mars launch window versus every 10 to 15 years). This would be a price of $50 million per person for 500 days in an inflatable going to Mars versus spending ~ $30 million per person to stay in LEO in a Bigelow commercial space station or over $500 million in NASA budget per NASA Astronaut on the ISS in LEO.

A 500 day journey to Mars at $50 million per person could find a market similar to what Bigelow, Boeing, and SpaceX are promoting for the Bigelow commercial space stations. The customers would be foreign government Astronauts, wealthy individuals, and corporate sponsored individuals just like Bigelow's potential customer base.

It took up to 10 years after Lindberg in 1927 before Trans-Atlantic air travel was readily available (on flying boats) and another 10 years after that for the runway infrastructure to be established (by World War 2) to open America-to-Europe air flights even further (in ~ 1947). There is a sustainable and repeatable path for this Mars flight that could prevent it from being just a 1-off stunt. Dennis Tito's 1st commercial ISS flight in 2001 ended up starting a new credible business model for Space Adventures.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 01:17 PM
Someone more sophisticated than "Joe Six Pack" might figure out how to lower the recurring costs of this mission to under $200 million, increase the number of passengers to 4 Astronauts, and increase the flight rate to every 2 years (i.e. every Mars launch window versus every 10 to 15 years). This would be a price of $50 million per person for 500 days in an inflatable going to Mars versus spending ~ $30 million per person to stay in LEO in a Bigelow commercial space station

I doubt customers would pop up in scores even if such service would exist right now. 1.5yrs of your life to get a passing glimpse of Mars. Btw somebody has already promised much better service for just $500,000. ;)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/22/2013 01:23 PM
And so what? That's the risk of all explorers.

It's a pointless risk when similar mission testing the same things could be carried out with less risk. They'd just fly by Mars, not much exploring there.

If somebody spends his own money and risks his own life for such a mission, who are you to decide if it is pointless?

What's the point of climbing a mountain? What was the point of the flight over the Atlantic by Charles Lindbergh? It would have been much less risky to cover the same distance by flying circles over the airport for 30 hours.

As an example on how this would benefit further mars missions:

People have been debating the risks of cosmic radiation and solar particle events on a mars journey for several decades now. They are running radiation experiments on the ISS right now with torso-shaped dummys and active and passive radiation sensors to figure out the risk. Such a mission would provide extremely valuable data.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/22/2013 01:34 PM
A 500 day journey to Mars at $50 million per person could find a market similar to what Bigelow, Boeing, and SpaceX are promoting for the Bigelow commercial space stations. The customers would be foreign government Astronauts, wealthy individuals, and corporate sponsored individuals just like Bigelow's potential customer base.

It's not a 500 day mission though except for certain launch windows.  Hence why they said only 2031 if not 2018.  Not to mention the cost would go up in other windows just because 2018 is a very good launch window energy-wise. 
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 01:41 PM
If somebody spends his own money and risks his own life for such a mission, who are you to decide if it is pointless?

Decision on opinion. I fear the possible failure/fatalities of this private shoestring budget (last I heard Tito is in the low hundreds of millions in net worth, not much for Mars mission even if he liquidates everything) effort would backlash on future manned space exploration efforts in general. Dying/dead people on failing/failed capsule far far away beyond rescue would make and stay in the headlines, making Joe question the need for HSF even more. Sorry for bringing up the gloomy picture but it is definite possibility in here and would have an negative impact. If the goal was even just quick boots and flags on actual Martian soil then the acceptable risk would be much higher.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/22/2013 01:44 PM
Someone more sophisticated than "Joe Six Pack" might figure out how to lower the recurring costs of this mission to under $200 million, increase the number of passengers to 4 Astronauts, and increase the flight rate to every 2 years (i.e. every Mars launch window versus every 10 to 15 years). This would be a price of $50 million per person for 500 days in an inflatable going to Mars versus spending ~ $30 million per person to stay in LEO in a Bigelow commercial space station

I doubt customers would pop up in scores even if such service would exist right now. 1.5yrs of your life to get a passing glimpse of Mars. Btw somebody has already promised much better service for just $500,000. ;)

I think that they would only have the supply in rockets and spaceships to initially only serve the demand of a "robust" market of only 4 customers every 2 years. They do not need "scores of customers", and they probably actually could only initially serve a market that is 10 times smaller than this "scores of customers". If there really are "scores of customers" for this Mars flight, then Musk could argue to future investors that he has more demand than supply, which is what he consistently tells investors about Tesla Motors and SpaceX.

The $500,000 roundtrip service to Mars from Musk and SpaceX is the optimized version of a service that Musk thinks that he could start in 2028 at a higher price point (of maybe $50 million to start in 2028??). If this lower quality Mars flyby service started in 2018 at a price point in the $50 million range, then it will be that much easier for Musk and Bigelow (or others) to attract the ~ $6 Billion in capital and customers needed for a dramatically more ambitious Mars Colony efforts starting in 2028.

Dennis Tito will probably be gone by 2028, but he could be remembered as the person who started human Mars colony efforts if he is successful with this Mars flyby in 2018, just like Tito is currently most remembered for being the "1st commercial space tourist" and kicking-off Billions of dollars$ in new commercial human spaceflight development after his commercial ISS flight in 2001.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Drkskywxlt on 02/22/2013 01:47 PM
I'm sure there will be plenty of people who would volunteer for this.  It really is no different than the first polar explorers or people who attempted to summit Everest.  People died on those expeditions and it didn't stop people from trying.  If the astronauts (and this organization) were good at the Sagan-esque/Tyson-esque motivation for this mission, I think this mission would be a motivator to continue to explore whether the astronauts live or die. 

That said, a "noble" death (e.g., doing an MCO-like plunge into the Martian atmosphere) would be preferable to dying because the oxygen runs out or the ECLSS system fails and there's no where to dump waste, etc...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/22/2013 02:06 PM
If somebody spends his own money and risks his own life for such a mission, who are you to decide if it is pointless?

Decision on opinion. I fear the possible failure/fatalities of this private shoestring budget (last I heard Tito is in the low hundreds of millions in net worth, not much for Mars mission even if he liquidates everything) effort would backlash on future manned space exploration efforts in general.

OK. Fair enough.

But that is a risk that we are going to have to take. The probability of a meaningful traditional government mission beyond LEO in my lifetime or even in my childrens lifetime is basically zero. So I don't see how a dying millionaire could make things any worse.

It's either something like this (a space enthusiast billionaire like musk, bezos, ...) or nothing.

Quote
Dying/dead people on failing/failed capsule far far away beyond rescue would make and stay in the headlines, making Joe question the need for HSF even more. Sorry for bringing up the gloomy picture but it is definite possibility in here and would have an negative impact. If the goal was even just quick boots and flags on actual Martian soil then the acceptable risk would be much higher.

Of course death is a definite possibility. Depending on the funding level I would say that the chances of dying on a shoestring mission like this are pretty high. But so what? People die all the time when skydiving, wingsuit flying, mountain climbing, etc. You don't see a huge public movement to outlaw these activities. Why should space be any different?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/22/2013 02:11 PM
Why should space be any different?

Simply because the media would make a huge spectacle of it, particularly if it is photogenic (launch vehicle or EDS explosion) or prolonged (ECLSS failure).  People die in BASE jumping accidents so regularly that it's routine - not news.  Space deaths are incredibly rare and the media would like to make something of it; they would make something of it and facts wouldn't automatically be an issue in that story.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/22/2013 02:15 PM
As an example on how this would benefit further mars missions:

People have been debating the risks of cosmic radiation and solar particle events on a mars journey for several decades now. They are running radiation experiments on the ISS right now with torso-shaped dummys and active and passive radiation sensors to figure out the risk. Such a mission would provide extremely valuable data.

Radiation experiments on dummys are totally nonsensical. The point of acceptable radiation is the ability of the living body to repair the damage. That ability is being ignored when setting limits. That this method is false can only be proven by sending living people.

Flares or no flares during the mission are of no consequence at all. It is alredy consensual that flares are not the problem and can be shielded quite easily. It is the CBR that is the issue.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: muomega0 on 02/22/2013 02:29 PM
As I've mentioned to a few people offline, there's going to be an IEEE paper discussing the mission that will be presented in about two weeks at their aerospace conference. Jeff Foust was able to dig that out and get a copy, and provides some details here:

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/21/new-insights-on-that-private-crewed-mars-mission/

Key points (that I feel ok sharing since Jeff made them public):

* Two person mission
* Free-return trajectory that flies by Mars
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Modified Dragon spacecraft
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

While I'm not a manned spacecraft guru by any stretch of the imagination, my read of the paper left me feeling pretty confident that the idea was technically feasible (ambitious? yes. balsy? yes. aggressive mass targets? yes. achievable? probably.)

~Jon
Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards). If you can get people who don't mind being cramped for a year and a half... Maybe pick really small people? ;)

But seriously, this is within the realm of the possible.

Thanks for highlighting the key assumptions, which highlights the apples to oranges comparison of missions to mars and a few questions on the approach.

Free return--do not expect trips every 2 to 4 years.

Significant radiation exposure-interested in mass fractions and total mass versus the 400 tons estimated by NASA with passive absorbers (http://www.thayer.dartmouth.edu/~d76205x/research/Shielding/docs/Parker_05.pdf).  For those willing to take the risk, is it still true that 1/3 of the crew's DNA would be hit by ions for each year in deep space?  Is it still true that broken DNA does not repair itself in most instances?

What if one sent crew to the L2 gateway for 2, 6, 12, 24 months prior to this trip to study radiation effects?

Modified Dragon.  It is not even clear why one would send Orion to Mars, so what is the rationale for sending Dragon versus an inflatable?

If the mission is ~ 5years from now, the SOA in TPS (earth return) and ECLSS is already well known, so how does leveraging NASA or industry expertise provide any advantage?  is it to justify the Orion flyby and return missions?   

What would be the advantages/disadvantages of delaying this mission to the next free return?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/22/2013 02:30 PM
Question is will children be able to be taken along and, if so, what is the age cut off for travel? Could I be the first young mom space traveler with my son subsequently growing up on Mars?

I believe that they have announced that the minimum age for children allowed on this flight is 5. However, you could probably negotiate that. For instance, if you wanted to bring two 2-year-olds that might be allowable, although they would have to calculate the volume and mass required for diapers. However, as somebody else helpfully suggested here, one way to increase the available room inside the spacecraft is to tie things on the outside, so that might work too!

As for your second question, unfortunately, this mission will not land. But it would be a great way for kids to see Mars, which would inspire them to want to live on the planet when they are older. So why not contact the group and tell them about your situation and see what they say?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/22/2013 02:33 PM
For those willing to take the risk, is it still true that 1/3 of the crew's DNA would be hit by ions for each year in deep space?  Is it still true that broken DNA does not repair itself in most instances?

No, neither of these things are true. These are myths that have been created in order to justify Orion, as you wrote. Radiation cannot be seen or smelled, and is therefore not real.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/22/2013 02:36 PM
A 500 day journey to Mars at $50 million per person could find a market similar to what Bigelow, Boeing, and SpaceX are promoting for the Bigelow commercial space stations. The customers would be foreign government Astronauts, wealthy individuals, and corporate sponsored individuals just like Bigelow's potential customer base.

It's not a 500 day mission though except for certain launch windows.  Hence why they said only 2031 if not 2018.  Not to mention the cost would go up in other windows just because 2018 is a very good launch window energy-wise. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, there are ways to do this every launch window every 2 years versus having to wait until 2031.

They would have to spend more money in non recurring engineering costs on solar electric propulsion ( a ~ 300 kw SEP stage might do it after a chemical upper stage pushes the Mars flyby vehicle and SEP stage rapidly through the Van Allen belts) or other technical options, but these additional NRE costs might be commercially financeable (for missions after 2018 and before 2031) if investors can see that the initial mission in 2018 is credible and has customers.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/22/2013 02:54 PM
Free return--do not expect trips every 2 to 4 years.

Yes, this is almost certainly a one-off stunt, just to prove that it can be done.

The best comparison is maybe SpaceShipOne. It only flew to space a few times, the minimum number it needed to win the X Prize. But in the process, it proved that it could be done, and elevated commercial spaceflight from dreams to reality. Now, they sell tickets to space in Superbowl commercials, and SpaceShipOne hangs from the Smithsonian's ceiling.

Inspiration Mars has a chance to do something similar, but in an even more dramatic fashion. Unlike SpaceShipOne, this isn't just rehashing the 1960s, this is genuinely going where noone has gone before. Engage!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 04:16 PM
It's either something like this (a space enthusiast billionaire like musk, bezos, ...) or nothing.

I hope for alternate options but fear you are right. Bezos might have deep enough pockets. I think some sort of govt(NASA) HSF BEO mission is likely during next decade, but unlikely Mars.

Quote
People die all the time when skydiving, wingsuit flying, mountain climbing, etc. You don't see a huge public movement to outlaw these activities. Why should space be any different?

Your list contains activities of only leisure nature, personal thrills. There is no taxpayer funded multi-billion dollar/euro programs doing skydiving, or mountain climbing with ultimate goal of settlement on top of the mountain. But space is mostly about those expensive government programs and the perpetual question is how to justify them to Joe and possibly get Joe exited about them so that Joe might be willing to invest even more taxmoney on them. If things go south with highly publicized (it will get attention then) similar but private program wouldn't that have impact on Joe's willingness to fund related activities with his taxes.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/22/2013 05:40 PM
I hope for alternate options but fear you are right. Bezos might have deep enough pockets. I think some sort of govt(NASA) HSF BEO mission is likely during next decade, but unlikely Mars.

While 2018 is the best opportunity for a while, 2020 isn't bad either, so it's not impossible that an SLS/Orion could pull off something similar. But I agree it's unlikely.

It sounds like Paragon Space is the real driving force behind this, which is interesting. The two Paragon executives/cofounders at the press conference are also the two former Biosphere 2 crew members on the Paragon board. So, both experts and true-believers. And noone's going to break the seal on this mission...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/22/2013 05:56 PM
It's either something like this (a space enthusiast billionaire like musk, bezos, ...) or nothing.

I hope for alternate options but fear you are right. Bezos might have deep enough pockets. I think some sort of govt(NASA) HSF BEO mission is likely during next decade, but unlikely Mars.

There might also be some other very wealthy people in india or china of which we have never heard of.

Quote
Quote
People die all the time when skydiving, wingsuit flying, mountain climbing, etc. You don't see a huge public movement to outlaw these activities. Why should space be any different?

Your list contains activities of only leisure nature, personal thrills. There is no taxpayer funded multi-billion dollar/euro programs doing skydiving, or mountain climbing with ultimate goal of settlement on top of the mountain. But space is mostly about those expensive government programs and the perpetual question is how to justify them to Joe and possibly get Joe exited about them so that Joe might be willing to invest even more taxmoney on them. If things go south with highly publicized (it will get attention then) similar but private program wouldn't that have impact on Joe's willingness to fund related activities with his taxes.

When aircraft were first developed, there were expensive government programs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langley_Aerodrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langley_Aerodrome) in competiton with private efforts that were on a shoestring budget and often got people killed. Should the private inventors have refrained from their efforts in order not to risk the public willingness to fund the government effort?

Besides, I don't think that a botched private mission would decrease the legitimacy of government funded spaceflight. They could point to the failed misson as proof that only government can do such things. A successful mission on the other hand would definitely decrease the public willingness to fund things like SLS and Orion.

Anyway, let's see if they have serious funding. We don't have to worry about somebody getting himself killed in space if they can't get there to begin with due to lack of funding...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: strangequark on 02/22/2013 06:10 PM
Question is will children be able to be taken along and, if so, what is the age cut off for travel? Could I be the first young mom space traveler with my son subsequently growing up on Mars?

I believe that they have announced that the minimum age for children allowed on this flight is 5. However, you could probably negotiate that. For instance, if you wanted to bring two 2-year-olds that might be allowable, although they would have to calculate the volume and mass required for diapers. However, as somebody else helpfully suggested here, one way to increase the available room inside the spacecraft is to tie things on the outside, so that might work too!

As for your second question, unfortunately, this mission will not land. But it would be a great way for kids to see Mars, which would inspire them to want to live on the planet when they are older. So why not contact the group and tell them about your situation and see what they say?

Watch out, lest you provide another demonstration of Poe's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law).
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: muomega0 on 02/22/2013 06:16 PM
Free return--do not expect trips every 2 to 4 years.

Yes, this is almost certainly a one-off stunt, just to prove that it can be done.

The best comparison is maybe SpaceShipOne. It only flew to space a few times, the minimum number it needed to win the X Prize. But in the process, it proved that it could be done, and elevated commercial spaceflight from dreams to reality. Now, they sell tickets to space in Superbowl commercials, and SpaceShipOne hangs from the Smithsonian's ceiling.

Inspiration Mars has a chance to do something similar, but in an even more dramatic fashion. Unlike SpaceShipOne, this isn't just rehashing the 1960s, this is genuinely going where noone has gone before. Engage!

Spend $1-2B or more on this free return mission to prove something  *or* deploy a LEO depot to address one of the largest potential mass (cost) savings for BLEO exploration (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30545.msg990602#msg990602)?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/22/2013 06:32 PM
Spend $1-2B or more on this free return mission to prove something  *or* deploy a LEO depot to address one of the largest potential mass (cost) savings for BLEO exploration (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30545.msg990602#msg990602)?

Depots are boring... what you can do with depots not. But let's do NASA this type of things.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mrmandias on 02/22/2013 06:49 PM
Spend $1-2B or more on this free return mission to prove something  *or* deploy a LEO depot to address one of the largest potential mass (cost) savings for BLEO exploration (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30545.msg990602#msg990602)?

If it were purely taxpayer money, then maybe this would be relevant.  But if rich adventurers are chipping in their own money or getting sponsor money, then how can you or I criticize them for doing something splashy and adventurous?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: GalacticIntruder on 02/22/2013 06:50 PM
People are going way too far with this possible fly by mission.

The number of humans that are capable, technically and mentally, of a 500 day mission in a tin can mission like this one, is minuscule.  This would be only for a select few, mainly previous astronauts. The average space enthusiast overestimates his capability. Lock yourself in a your closet (or storm shelter) for 500 days straight, and see if you can hack it.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/22/2013 06:52 PM
Depots are infrastruture, that's for governments and corporations. Noone builds a bridge to prove a point.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/22/2013 07:05 PM
When aircraft were first developed, there were expensive government programs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langley_Aerodrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langley_Aerodrome) in competiton with private efforts that were on a shoestring budget and often got people killed. Should the private inventors have refrained from their efforts in order not to risk the public willingness to fund the government effort?

Quick googling told me that $50,000 in 1898 is about $1,3M in 2010 dollars. We are at least three orders of magnitude from space programs. And it was Army money, budget less connected to public opinions.

Quote
Anyway, let's see if they have serious funding. We don't have to worry about somebody getting himself killed in space if they can't get there to begin with due to lack of funding...

So true. This must be some kind of record though, already 10+ pages of speculation and even the pretty web pages aren't out yet?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/22/2013 07:19 PM
People are going way too far with this possible fly by mission.

The number of humans that are capable, technically and mentally, of a 500 day mission in a tin can mission like this one, is minuscule.  This would be only for select few, mainly previous astronauts. The average space enthusiast overestimates his capability. Lock yourself in a your closet (or storm shelter) for 500 days straight, and see if you can hack it.

Millions of average people have endured much worse during times of crisis in the last century without going insane. Prisoners in solitary confinement, soldiers in a trench in WWI, prisoners in the gulags, the list goes on and on. And most of those did not have a hero's welcome to look forward to.

There is a risk of a crew member developing psychological problems. But you could have some medication for such a case, and in any case it is less likely than other things that might go wrong, such as technical problems.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: notsorandom on 02/22/2013 07:25 PM
When aircraft were first developed, there were expensive government programs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langley_Aerodrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langley_Aerodrome) in competiton with private efforts that were on a shoestring budget and often got people killed. Should the private inventors have refrained from their efforts in order not to risk the public willingness to fund the government effort?

Quick googling told me that $50,000 in 1898 is about $1,3M in 2010 dollars. We are at least three orders of magnitude from space programs. And it was Army money, budget less connected to public opinions.
It was also not a government project. It was a project being done by a private group financed through a government grant.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mike robel on 02/22/2013 07:56 PM
For historical perspective, here is the Apollo Chain-ganged SIVB Mars flyback booster combination.  Its worth noting, I think if you fly by, your closest position to Marsis likely to be on the dark side as you whiz by...

Also a PDF describing the mission
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/22/2013 10:00 PM
Its worth noting, I think if you fly by, your closest position to Mars is likely to be on the dark side as you whiz by...

"Likely"? I'd personally say "certainly".  That said, you'll still see a lot on the way in and out - a half-Mars with plenty of terminator features that would make for optimum photography.

Oh... and I'd ship a few penetrometers (expendable rocket-propelled core sampling probes) to fire into Phobos and Deimos.  I know that UKSpace is working on them for a lunar mission and they should work for the Martian moons, especially with a nearby orbiter to pick up the data.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JasonAW3 on 02/22/2013 10:05 PM
I don't know about this...

     My gut instinct says that Tito et al are going to suprise the heck out of everyone.  I'm figuring that he's going to go for a fast flight, using a VASMIR or similar technology engine, land and return after a year or so on Mars.  501 days?  Let's assume an 80 day round trip.  That's still over 400 days that he could stay on Mars.

     Or, it could be a drop off of initial supplies for the Mars2020 group, using conventional rockets.  (Personally, I can't see Tito simply flying by Mars without landing.  It just wouldn't be right).

Jason
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/22/2013 10:14 PM
Depots are infrastruture, that's for governments and corporations. Noone builds a bridge to prove a point.
;D

That painted a mental picture in my mind of someone getting into an internet argument then spending a billion dollars to flyby Mars just to "prove a point." (And, of course, it didn't change anyone's mind. ;))
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Zed_Noir on 02/22/2013 10:22 PM
Had a thought about a hab module for this venture. You could use the Thales pressurized module for the Cygnus with some modifications. It could be carry inside an extended trunk attached to the upper stage. It adds about 18 cubic meters of storage with the smaller Cygnus PCM.

After the upper stage does the  Earth departure burn. Dragon detached from upper stage, stand off and turns around to docked with Thales module. Then the Dragon + module stack separates from the spended upper stage. Kind like the Apollo LEM extraction.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: ChuckC on 02/22/2013 11:07 PM
Biggest issue and difficulty would probably be to not go insane out there all by myself during the loooooong trip...

A PlayStation and a good supply of games would might help there.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: ChuckC on 02/22/2013 11:14 PM
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  That’s about 90 people per day.  And we are going to get all angsty if one or two don't make it in a LOC on a very adventurist mission?  If the chances of success were good I would give it a go!  We have become very risk adverse as a nation.  Yet we still do mountain climbing, skydiving, base jumping, etc. so what is wrong with a little bit of Mars fly-bying? 
Frankly even if it is a virtual suicide mission with less 1% chance of getting back alive if a couple of people want to do it I say go for it. Just make sure the legal liabilities are settled in advance. 
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/22/2013 11:48 PM
Biggest issue and difficulty would probably be to not go insane out there all by myself during the loooooong trip...

A PlayStation and a good supply of games would might help there.
Oh, there is the sponsors, video game companies.
Their games played on the Mars flyby trip. ;D
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/23/2013 03:04 AM
Had a thought about a hab module for this venture. You could use the Thales pressurized module for the Cygnus with some modifications.

Even simpler: Inflatable airlock mounted in place of the docking ring. It means the crew can EVA without needing to depressurize the cabin. Then, you can store all the extra food, water, air, etc in the trunk and just EVA out to get it occasionally. No hab module needed.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/23/2013 03:10 AM
That painted a mental picture in my mind of someone getting into an internet argument then spending a billion dollars to flyby Mars just to "prove a point." (And, of course, it didn't change anyone's mind. ;))

Well, they did kinda build Biosphere 2 just to prove a point, at a cost of $200 million, and Tito paid about $20 million to be the first space tourist. These people seem to know about spending vast sums of private money to prove points...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Nathan on 02/23/2013 03:37 AM
I ike this kind of trailblazing. I would ave thought one person in a dragon could have done it but not two without some form of extra space.
What this says to me is that perhaps they are actually building a transit habitat that they hope to market to nasa in future years. Dragon would just take the crew to it and may or ay not be along for the ride. The comment that any launch vehicle or capsule would be used suggests that the capsule isn't the main vehicle they are using for this flyby.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Zed_Noir on 02/23/2013 03:54 AM
Had a thought about a hab module for this venture. You could use the Thales pressurized module for the Cygnus with some modifications.

Even simpler: Inflatable airlock mounted in place of the docking ring. It means the crew can EVA without needing to depressurize the cabin. Then, you can store all the extra food, water, air, etc in the trunk and just EVA out to get it occasionally. No hab module needed.

Didn't the Russians try the inflatable route and find it hazardous.

Why would you do EVA if you can avoided it to began with. No need for all the EVA gear (EVA suit, ECLSS, umbilicals, external spacecraft handhelds, airlock, etc.) when you can just open a hatch and drift into the hab module. Not taking into consideration the time & cost to have EVA suit rated for BEO uses. I don't think the ISS EVA suits are rated for BEO.

Finally you are proposing to store stuff in vacuum in the trunk?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 04:29 AM
Space X has a concept for an 'extended trunk' Dragon - Perhaps Space X could be commissioned to build a pressurized habitat/logistics module within that area: docking the main Dragon with it 'nose to tail', so to speak. And on top of that large trunk habitat/logistics module, instead of another Dragon capsule there could be a fair-sized hypergolic propulsion module that also has a set of solar arrays.

For just a crew of two; there's your mission module stack for Mars flyby - the habitat is filled with consumables and therefore is the storm shelter, too. Including propellants and consumables this Mission Module stack would easily mass more than 40 tons. Send it BEO with LOX/Methane or LOX/kerosene propulsion stages - or indeed also dock a twin engine Centaur stage with the stack as the final stage added shortly before TMI (avoiding LH2 boil off).

Mixed launch fleet launch sequence: 1x Falcon Heavy - Earth Departure Stage #1  (LOX/CH4 or LOX/RP1).
1x Falcon Heavy with the Long Trunk Habitat/Logistics and hypergolic propulsion module.
1x Falcon 9.1 with Dragon Rider Command craft and crew.
1x Atlas 552 with Centaur twin engined EDS #2.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/23/2013 04:47 AM
Just noticed this series of relevant tweets from Mike Loucks (a friend of mine who's one of the coauthors on the IEEE paper) describing the trajectory they're looking at a bit:

https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305154592260374528
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305154592260374528/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155051947708417
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155051947708417/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155492009897986
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155492009897986/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305156162469376000
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305156162469376000/photo/1

Basically no they're not doing a Venus swingby, but the perihelion almost gets down to Venus orbit.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/23/2013 06:13 AM
And Earth entry at 14.2 km/s! Yowuch! That'll put the heat shield to a test!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/23/2013 06:21 AM
Basically no they're not doing a Venus swingby, but the perihelion almost gets down to Venus orbit.

How much dv required to inject into that orbit?

(IOW how much can FH deliver there)

edit:
Didn't the Russians try the inflatable route and find it hazardous.

The airlock wasn't. Leonov's suit had a problem being too stiff, and apparently he almost became stuck in the airlock by entering it the wrong way.

http://history.nasa.gov/monograph7.pdf (http://history.nasa.gov/monograph7.pdf) page 2.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ralph Buttigieg on 02/23/2013 06:31 AM
G'day,

Any reason why a hatch couldn't be cut and installed through the bottom of the Dragon allowing access to a module in the trunk? The USAF was planning to do that with Gemini/MOL.

ta

Ralph

Space X has a concept for an 'extended trunk' Dragon - Perhaps Space X could be commissioned to build a pressurized habitat/logistics module within that area: docking the main Dragon with it 'nose to tail', so to speak. And on top of that large trunk habitat/logistics module, instead of another Dragon capsule there could be a fair-sized hypergolic propulsion module that also has a set of solar arrays.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/23/2013 06:32 AM
How much dv required to inject into that orbit?

(IOW how much can FH deliver there)

Roughly speaking it will be close to the Apollo lunar free-return C3, which was about -1.4 km2/s2. So, call it -2.0 km2/2, to be safe, or 1.4 km/s beyond Earth escape velocity.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 06:42 AM
Mixed launch fleet launch sequence: 1x Falcon Heavy - Earth Departure Stage #1  (LOX/CH4 or LOX/RP1).
1x Falcon Heavy with the Long Trunk Habitat/Logistics and hypergolic propulsion module.
1x Falcon 9.1 with Dragon Rider Command craft and crew.
1x Atlas 552 with Centaur twin engined EDS #2.

If this is going to work, it has to be one launch. Everything else starts getting in the billions and is much too complex to pull off in such a short time.

And no reconfiguration of the spacecraft after TMI. Imagine you are after TMI and something goes wrong with the rotation of the dragon and docking to the service module. Since you won't be able to carry EVA equipment due to mass constraints, you're dead.

The following might work: the falcon heavy as it is planned now suffers very much for high energy trajectories because it is not yet optimized for those. Spacex might have a better upper stage engine available in 2018, but it is probably not a good idea to depend on their schedule estimates for something like this.

So you could have a dragon with a service module with some additional living space, ECLSS, a docking adapter, and a propulsion system for some 1000m/s. Launch the stack into a highly elliptical earth orbit (28°, 20000x200km or so) using the falcon heavy upper stage, turn the dragon around and redock to the service module, and do the actual TMI using the service module, with the dragon turned around, during the next perigee pass.

That way, you can abort in case something goes wrong with the reconfiguration, and you increase the TMI throwmass a lot.

I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space. But with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO, but just 12t to 28° GTO) they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/23/2013 06:57 AM
with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO,

It's 53 tons inside a 2 ton fairing. You don't need the fairing for a crew mission.

they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.

That's the conventional wisdom, yes.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/23/2013 07:16 AM
But with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO, but just 12t to 28° GTO) they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.

Will there be detente with ULA? A Centaur to kick Red Dragon on it's way. About 18mt then (including the empty kick stage).
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/23/2013 07:24 AM
Any reason why a hatch couldn't be cut and installed through the bottom of the Dragon allowing access to a module in the trunk? The USAF was planning to do that with Gemini/MOL.

The heat shield. Very high reentry speed (~30% higher the Apollos) will be a challenge even without hatch in the middle.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 07:53 AM
with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO,

It's 53 tons inside a 2 ton fairing. You don't need the fairing for a crew mission.

The fairing gets dropped long before you even reach LEO. It is not going to make a big difference for an interplanetary trajectory.

Quote
they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.

That's the conventional wisdom, yes.

The other alternative would be to have a very low budget for consumables (1kg/man/day) and have some very advanced life support system. But I think buying some kind of upper stage (something based on dracos or maybe a ATK Star or Castor motor) and using a simple life support system and 5 kg/man/day would be much more realistic than developing a very advanced life support system in 2 years.

If your TMI stage does not work, you are still in highly elliptical earth orbit and can return to earth using the dragon propulsion system. If your life support system fails, you're dead.

But with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO, but just 12t to 28° GTO) they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.

Will there be detente with ULA? A Centaur to kick Red Dragon on it's way. About 18mt then (including the empty kick stage).

Integrating a LH2 upper stage with the falcon heavy would be much too compiex. But I think something a lot smaller and simpler would be enough.

Assuming a very simple life support system, you would have 5kg/man/day * 500 days * 2 pax = 5000kg for provisions. Add 1000kg for the life support system itself, 4200kg for the dragon and 1000kg for propellant for midcourse corrections, you end up with just 11.2t.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 08:22 AM
Not taking into consideration the time & cost to have EVA suit rated for BEO uses. I don't think the ISS EVA suits are rated for BEO.

In what aspects does BEO vs LEO matter WRT a space suit?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 08:36 AM
Not taking into consideration the time & cost to have EVA suit rated for BEO uses. I don't think the ISS EVA suits are rated for BEO.

In what aspects does BEO vs LEO matter WRT a space suit?

The temperature environment is different with half the sky filled by warm earth in LEO. And the radiation environment in LEO is much more benign than in deep space because you are inside the earth magnetic field. (Not that you can do anything about it with a space suit, anyway)

I think current LEO spacesuits would work just fine for short excursions BEO.

But for this mission I think there simply is no mass budget for a spacesuit, an airlock and all the assorted hardware associated with EVAs.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 08:49 AM

If this is going to work, it has to be one launch. Everything else starts getting in the billions and is much too complex to pull off in such a short time.

And no reconfiguration of the spacecraft after TMI. Imagine you are after TMI and something goes wrong with the rotation of the dragon and docking to the service module.

........

That way, you can abort in case something goes wrong with the reconfiguration, and you increase the TMI throwmass a lot.

Not critisizing, just a question. Would two launches really be that much more complex? You propose rearranging the stack after launch anyway and I agree it would be necessary.


I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space. But with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO, but just 12t to 28° GTO) they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.

How about this kind of mission profile using two launchers? It should not increase mission cost that much.

Launch a Falcon 9 with the complete stack, Dragon, cargo and a small inflatable habitat. I just cannot imagine that everything will fit into a Dragon with two astronauts unless there is a very small but very efficient ECLSS that allows 1 or 2 kg/person/day. Rearrange the stack in LEO and check out all the equipment for proper function.
Added: The astronauts would spend a few weeks in LEO that way but in a 500 day mission 20 days extra with a lot of more space should be ok.

Launch a Falcon Heavy empty or if really necessary with some kind of kickstage. The second stage would reach LEO with almost full fuel tanks, less with a kickstage but still plenty. Enhance the loiter time in orbit should require not much more than bigger batteries for one or two days. If that fails the mission can still be aborted.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 08:49 AM


I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space.

There is a limit to how much you can tough it out.  Ten cubic m just is not enough for two people over 500 days, not when all the onboard equipment cuts it to half this.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 09:02 AM

If this is going to work, it has to be one launch. Everything else starts getting in the billions and is much too complex to pull off in such a short time.

And no reconfiguration of the spacecraft after TMI. Imagine you are after TMI and something goes wrong with the rotation of the dragon and docking to the service module.

........

That way, you can abort in case something goes wrong with the reconfiguration, and you increase the TMI throwmass a lot.

Not critisizing, just a question. Would two launches really be that much more complex? You propose rearranging the stack after launch anyway and I agree it would be necessary.

It would not be that much more complex. But 2018 is pretty close, so the only way this would make sense would be to reduce the complexity to the bare minimum, which is one launch.

If you have the budget and time for a multiple-launch mission, you can fly a very comfortable tour of the solar system, including a bigelow sundancer and lots of margin. That way you could also do a flyby with one of the less optimal mars launch windows.

There was a long thread about a similar topic a few years ago, with some very detailed calculations regarding launch windows, delta-v and mass requirements. Back then the falcon heavy still had 19 tons to GEO though.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15878.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15878.0)

Edit:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15878.msg717396#msg717396 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=15878.msg717396#msg717396)

The delta-v for the circumnavigation mission back then was C3=0 + 1000m/s. So this should be the same ballpark.



I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space.

There is a limit to how much you can tough it out.  Ten cubic m just is not enough for two people over 500 days, not when all the onboard equipment cuts it to half this.

Nevertheless that is what I suspect they will propose.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 09:25 AM
Mixed launch fleet launch sequence: 1x Falcon Heavy - Earth Departure Stage #1  (LOX/CH4 or LOX/RP1).
1x Falcon Heavy with the Long Trunk Habitat/Logistics and hypergolic propulsion module.
1x Falcon 9.1 with Dragon Rider Command craft and crew.
1x Atlas 552 with Centaur twin engined EDS #2.

If this is going to work, it has to be one launch. Everything else starts getting in the billions and is much too complex to pull off in such a short time.

And no reconfiguration of the spacecraft after TMI. Imagine you are after TMI and something goes wrong with the rotation of the dragon and docking to the service module. Since you won't be able to carry EVA equipment due to mass constraints, you're dead.

The following might work: the falcon heavy as it is planned now suffers very much for high energy trajectories because it is not yet optimized for those. Spacex might have a better upper stage engine available in 2018, but it is probably not a good idea to depend on their schedule estimates for something like this.

So you could have a dragon with a service module with some additional living space, ECLSS, a docking adapter, and a propulsion system for some 1000m/s. Launch the stack into a highly elliptical earth orbit (28°, 20000x200km or so) using the falcon heavy upper stage, turn the dragon around and redock to the service module, and do the actual TMI using the service module, with the dragon turned around, during the next perigee pass.

That way, you can abort in case something goes wrong with the reconfiguration, and you increase the TMI throwmass a lot.

I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space. But with the payload numbers published for FH (53t to LEO, but just 12t to 28° GTO) they will need some kind of upper stage for the TMI in any case.

Sorry; but I just don't see how they could do even a minimum-mass, 2 person mission like this in one launch unless it were a SLS Block 2 - which is not going to happen - and even then it would be a stretch.

2x Falcon Heavy? I'm not sure - Launch #1: EDS. Launch #2: Dragon Rider, Habitat & Hypergolic Propulsion Stage. Rendezvous and dock in low Earth orbit and depart. But would that EDS have enough delta-v to push the stack to TMI with LOX/Kerosene as the propellant? I don't know. A 3x launch solution with 2x Falcon Heavy & 1x Falcon 9.1? Sounds more plausible if you crunch the numbers. But without a Propellant Depot waiting at L-1 or L-2 it seems to me that any Mars or NEA mission could not be done in a single launch without that launcher being able to throw at least 35 metric tons to escape velocity.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 09:31 AM


I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space.

There is a limit to how much you can tough it out.  Ten cubic m just is not enough for two people over 500 days, not when all the onboard equipment cuts it to half this.

Ten cubic meters (353 feet) per crew member might be tolerable (barely) if the following factors are taken into account: Communications with Earth are strong and reliable. The food is good, there is a vast digital entertainment library to amuse the crew, the toilet facilities are reliable, the exercise equipment is decent, even if basic... I could go on, but I think people get my drift.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 09:39 AM
But without a Propellant Depot waiting at L-1 or L-2 it seems to me that any Mars or NEA mission could not be done in a single launch without that launcher being able to throw at least 35 metric tons to escape velocity.

I agree. But we are not talking about a mars mission but about a mars flyby mission. This makes a huge difference. It is probably less than 2 km/s more than GTO. A single falcon heavy could lift 25t to an intermediate elliptic orbit, from which you can get to TMI with the required C3 with an upper stage such as an ATK Castor.

Supply requirements are, from the top of my head:
~ 5kg/man/day (very conservative),
~ 3.5kg/man/day (current state of the art),
~ 1-2kg/person/day (advanced life support system)?

So if you use a simple and light life support system, you need just 5000kg of consumables. You don't need 35t to C3=0 for a flyby. 35t to C3=0 is roughly the mars direct budget for a four-person mission that lands on mars.

The biggest problem is the lack of volume. And of course it is a pretty high risk mission.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: DLR on 02/23/2013 09:46 AM
What about using a modified Falcon 9 US as a "wet workshop", simply to give the astronauts a bit more room?

(http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2631/4104346609_08a33e750e_z.jpg)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 10:15 AM
What about using a modified Falcon 9 US as a "wet workshop", simply to give the astronauts a bit more room?

That would require using the F9 US to do the TMI, which is not possible unless you have an unrealistically low consumables mass budget. Also, you would have to do the conversion to habitable volume while on an interplanetary trajectory, with no way to abort if something goes wrong.

An upper stage and a space station / habitable volume are both highly mass-optimized, specialized machines. They don't have that much in common except that both are pressure vessels. So conversion from one to the other is not as simple as people seem to think.

For additional habitable volume you would be better off using a bigelow beam or a stripped-down dragon pressure vessel without heatshield and propulsion.

But note that docking something to the dragon will block the draco engines that are most efficient for orbit correction maneuvers.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 10:19 AM


I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space.

There is a limit to how much you can tough it out.  Ten cubic m just is not enough for two people over 500 days, not when all the onboard equipment cuts it to half this.

Ten cubic meters (353 feet) per crew member might be tolerable (barely) if the following factors are taken into account: Communications with Earth are strong and reliable. The food is good, there is a vast digital entertainment library to amuse the crew, the toilet facilities are reliable, the exercise equipment is decent, even if basic... I could go on, but I think people get my drift.

Studies suggest that 5 cubic m per person free space is the survival minimum for durations over 6 months, 10 m free space is the functional minimum. Pressuised volume is two to three times free space.

Dragon has 10 m pressuised volume in total.  Barely enough for one at best, certainly not enough for two atunder any circumstances for such a mission.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 10:23 AM




I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space.

There is a limit to how much you can tough it out.  Ten cubic m just is not enough for two people over 500 days, not when all the onboard equipment cuts it to half this.

Nevertheless that is what I suspect they will propose.

If they propose that, then that alone is enough to kill it.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/23/2013 10:32 AM
Assuming a very simple life support system, you would have 5kg/man/day * 500 days * 2 pax = 5000kg for provisions. Add 1000kg for the life support system itself, 4200kg for the dragon and 1000kg for propellant for midcourse corrections, you end up with just 11.2t.

Is increased radiation protection somewhere in those numbers, or just fly stock Dragon and see how it goes? FH quoted GTO payload is 12t, going to be tough without some high energy kick stage.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: DLR on 02/23/2013 10:35 AM
What about using a modified Falcon 9 US as a "wet workshop", simply to give the astronauts a bit more room?

That would require using the F9 US to do the TMI, which is not possible unless you have an unrealistically low consumables mass budget. Also, you would have to do the conversion to habitable volume while on an interplanetary trajectory, with no way to abort if something goes wrong.

An upper stage and a space station / habitable volume are both highly mass-optimized, specialized machines. They don't have that much in common except that both are pressure vessels. So conversion from one to the other is not as simple as people seem to think.

For additional habitable volume you would be better off using a bigelow beam or a stripped-down dragon pressure vessel without heatshield and propulsion.

But note that docking something to the dragon will block the draco engines that are most efficient for orbit correction maneuvers.

If the Falcon US performs the TMI burn, the mass budget would be around ~10 tonnes. Perhaps enough for a Dragon, supplies, an ECLSS and a docking adapter on the Falcon US.
I also think two astronauts would be streching it. A one-man mission should be feasible though.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 10:35 AM
And of course it is a pretty high risk mission.

People keep saying this, but why?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 10:37 AM
Nevertheless that is what I suspect they will propose.

If they propose that, then that alone is enough to kill it.

Why? The only thing that can (and most likely will) kill this mission is a lack of funding.

If the likelihood of the crew going insane is high, it will make getting advertising funding more difficult. Except maybe for antidepressants.

But assuming that dennis tito has managed to increase his net worth substantially, and is willing to liquidate it all, who's going to stop him?

I know that there is a law for everything in the US, but as far as I know engaging in expensive and very dangerous activities is not yet outlawed, except maybe in NYC.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Bernie Roehl on 02/23/2013 10:45 AM
I also think two astronauts would be streching it. A one-man mission should be feasible though.

I was about to say the same thing. Why is everyone assuming a two person crew?

A one person mission has half the consumables and twice the volume per person. No risks of interpersonal conflict during the mission either.

Yes, the person would be lonely.  But I suspect that would be better than two people at each others‛ throats after six months.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 10:46 AM
Is increased radiation protection somewhere in those numbers, or just fly stock Dragon and see how it goes? FH quoted GTO payload is 12t, going to be tough without some high energy kick stage.

In the beginning of the mission you would try to spend as much time as possible inside your huge pile of water-rich consumables, which should afford some protection.

For the end of the mission you would have to either retain the mass (yuck!) or just accept an increased risk of cancer due to cosmic radiation and hope you don't get fried by a solar flare.

The mission is roughly at the time of the next solar minimum, so the danger of solar flares is not very high.

And of course it is a pretty high risk mission.

People keep saying this, but why?

There is a risk of a life support system breakdown. Then, as you have pointed out, there is the risk of the crew developing psychological problems and doing something stupid. And then of course there is the risk of launch and reentry, and the risk of being hit by a solar flare.

Still safer than many other extreme adventure activities like wingsuit flying though.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 10:47 AM
A one-man mission should be feasible though.

Technically, yes, from from a human point of view that would be very challenging.  500 days is much longer than even non-stop solo circumnavigations (typically 10 months or less) or the longest solo stints in the polar regions (none I know of more than 12 months).
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 10:48 AM




I think they will propose to tough it out without any additional living space.

There is a limit to how much you can tough it out.  Ten cubic m just is not enough for two people over 500 days, not when all the onboard equipment cuts it to half this.

Nevertheless that is what I suspect they will propose.

If they propose that, then that alone is enough to kill it.

Then two Dragons docked nose-to-nose - one is the Command & Earth re-entry vehicle, the other purely for Hab & Logistics (lots of Hi-density polyethylene for shielding, too). But both Dragons have 'Long Trunks' with that trunk space dedicated to being a service module; containing oxygen, nitrogen & water tanks, helium pressurization tanks, about six tons of hypergolic propellants and a single restartable engine. Dual Launch each vehicle on a Falcon Heavy (from two Pads, but what interval?) and directly to escape velocity on very similar trajectories. The two craft then rendezvous and dock nose-to-nose after discarding their Earth Departure stages.

On to a Mars Flyby...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: aquanaut99 on 02/23/2013 10:48 AM
Yes, the person would be lonely.  But I suspect that would be better than two people at each others‛ throats after six months.

A one person crew is the only possible way to do this. Perferably, that one person is a petite female (women consume less food, water and oxygen than men, and are also able to tolerate confined spaces better).

The psychological hurdles are immense tho.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 10:50 AM
Nevertheless that is what I suspect they will propose.

If they propose that, then that alone is enough to kill it.

Why? The only thing that can (and most likely will) kill this mission is a lack of funding.

If the likelihood of the crew going insane is high, it will make getting advertising funding more difficult. Except maybe for antidepressants.

But assuming that dennis tito has managed to increase his net worth substantially, and is willing to liquidate it all, who's going to stop him?

I know that there is a law for everything in the US, but as far as I know engaging in expensive and very dangerous activities is not yet outlawed, except maybe in NYC.

Because ignoring basic requirments for volume is like ignoring requirements for consumables.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 10:50 AM
I also think two astronauts would be streching it. A one-man mission should be feasible though.

I was about to say the same thing. Why is everyone assuming a two person crew?

A one person mission has half the consumables and twice the volume per person. No risks of interpersonal conflict during the mission either.

Yes, the person would be lonely.  But I suspect that would be better than two people at each others‛ throats after six months.

You're reaching - There were a couple of incidents like that on the Salyuts and Mir, yes. But they were very rare and you can't use them as an excuse to not try something like this. It goes with the territory.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 10:56 AM
I also think two astronauts would be streching it. A one-man mission should be feasible though.

I was about to say the same thing. Why is everyone assuming a two person crew?

A one person mission has half the consumables and twice the volume per person. No risks of interpersonal conflict during the mission either.

Yes, the person would be lonely.  But I suspect that would be better than two people at each others‛ throats after six months.

Why would a properly chosen pair be at each other's throats after six months? Two person exploration teams in space or the poles have been very successful in the past.

One person alone for this duration is uncharted territory for a complex missions.  One person is less likely to cope with technical problems than two.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 11:04 AM
And sorry to be so pragmatic - but if one crew member died of a heart attack, stroke or whatever - then the remaining person could carry on the mission. But with a one person crew dying? No mission. But on a two person crew: what would they do with the body!!

If they had pressure suits onboard, perhaps the remaining crewmember would have to depressurize and give them a Space burial...  :-\
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 11:10 AM
I also think two astronauts would be streching it. A one-man mission should be feasible though.

I was about to say the same thing. Why is everyone assuming a two person crew?

Because two people is what has been proposed for the mission. Two people also will allow you to have one professional astronaut and one wealthy backer. Remember that the biggest hurdle for this mission is the funding.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 11:18 AM
A one-man mission should be feasible though.

Technically, yes, from from a human point of view that would be very challenging.  500 days is much longer than even non-stop solo circumnavigations (typically 10 months or less) or the longest solo stints in the polar regions (none I know of more than 12 months).

But a solo circumnavigation is much more stressful. You have to navigate through storms, perform exhausting physical activities, cope with sleep deprivation in time of bad weather etc.

In this mission you just have to stay alive, read your emails, and watch over the life support system.

Because ignoring basic requirments for volume is like ignoring requirements for consumables.

I don't think so. It is at least physically possible to survive in close space. See various third-world prisons.

Besides, there is a wide variety of medications available that can help with claustrophobia and other stresses. If you take medication against bone loss, why shouldn't you also take medication against claustrophobia? NASA would probably never allow mood-altering drugs for their astronauts. But why shoudn't a private mission do it if it increases the odds of success?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: KelvinZero on 02/23/2013 11:54 AM
One person alone for this duration is uncharted territory for a complex missions.  One person is less likely to cope with technical problems than two.

Given all the money spent by NASA, im pretty annoyed that they didnt think of daring someone to sit in a box for 500 days :)

Has a "kissing orions" configuration been considered? That does seem a good way of increasing your redundancy without designing a new vehicle. And if they have a spat then they have their own rooms.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 12:14 PM
I don't know if its been considered officially but some of us have suggested similar - see higher up the thread.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 12:17 PM
Then two Dragons docked nose-to-nose - one is the Command & Earth re-entry vehicle, the other purely for Hab & Logistics (lots of Hi-density polyethylene for shielding, too). But both Dragons have 'Long Trunks' with that trunk space dedicated to being a service module; containing oxygen, nitrogen & water tanks, helium pressurization tanks, about six tons of hypergolic propellants and a single restartable engine. Dual Launch each vehicle on a Falcon Heavy (from two Pads, but what interval?) and directly to escape velocity on very similar trajectories. The two craft then rendezvous and dock nose-to-nose after discarding their Earth Departure stages.

On to a Mars Flyby...

Why two Dragons? A Bigelow BEAM module has lless than half the weigt, tremendously more space and even better radiation protection.

About the Crew. I may prefer to go alone than with another man. The Bigelow Module would give enough space though for some privacy. The idea of a woman seems appealing. But it should not be a life partner. Few partnerships could survive that challenge.

I don't believe a testrun on earth would give good clues for a single person or a two person team. Under the pressure of necessity during the flight the dynamics are totally different.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/23/2013 12:33 PM
Bigelows have yet to be tested with human crews and their overall test program is painfully slow and drawn out - I don't know if anything significant can be finalized and declared operational with them in the fairly short time frame Mr Tito has. Although Dragon's haven't flown crew yet either - that part of their development is well underway. Also; borrowing from the 'kissing Orions' idea adds redundancy with two hulls, heatshields etc. Besides; 2x Dragons would offer the better part of 20 cubic meters of habitable volume - not bad for a crew of two.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JasonAW3 on 02/23/2013 01:06 PM
Four launches.

From the Cape:  Tito and friend in a Dragon Capsule and trunk with a logistics module behind it.

From Texas: logistics module, with possible lander.

From Vandenburg: 2 launches, one Falcon heavy with VASMIR engines and fuel, solar panels etc.  Two, Falcon XX with a BA3300 habitat module.

 Orbital rendezvous:  inflate BA3300, dock it to logistics module with optional lander attached, dock engines and fuel tank age to logistics module with optional lander, next, dock Dragon to other logistics module, then to BA3300 habitat.  Use any remaining stage, (such as the one attached to engine section, to give assembly initial boost towards the moon.  Detach stage, use both VASMIR engines and lunar gravity for initial TMI boost, (also, usable as final abort section, if needed) and begin mission.

40 days to Mars

Achieve orbit using Aero braking,  (about 10 days to establish orbit) detach lander and logistics module, (probably ought to swap places with Dragon craft and logistics module in assembly) detach logistics module from lander, deorbit logistics module for reentry to Mars surface.  Radio beacon activates upon logistics module landing, (possible inflatable habitat as part of logistics module?) Lander descends homing in on radio beacon.

Spend 400 days on Mars, or mix it up a bit before going down by visiting Phobos or Deimos first and spent a hundred days or so checking it out, then go to Mars.

Once Mars stay complete, launch ascent stage of lander to main craft.  Dock, transfer crew only!  Spend next 10 days housekeeping and checking craft out for return flight.

Refuel ascent stage either before or after TEI burn.  Once on the way back, detach ascent stage and use teleoperated equipment in ascent stage to examine samples brought up from Mars.  As long as suit locks only are used for EVAs on Mars, this should nearly eliminate any cross contamination of either Mars samples or crew.

Once approaching Earth, reattach the ascent stage to craft, then use gravity wells of Earth and moon, as well as far upper atmospheric Aero braking to achieve earth orbit.  Have a Send a seperate launch of hazmat rated reentry craft to collect samples from craft  and either take them to ISS for further study or to a category five clean room facility (yes, I know there are only four categories of clean room facilities according to the CDC, but a completely sealed environment should be established until the safety of the returned samples can be assured.

Note: same teleoperated equipment used on ascent stage of lander would also be used Mars side for initial studies of samples, while Mars side.  Reuse of equipment should ALWAYS be considered, if only to lower overall mission costs.

BA3300 has 3300 cubic meters of volume, even with a fly-by only mission, should be enough volume to keep everyone sane.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/23/2013 01:10 PM
And sorry to be so pragmatic - but if one crew member died of a heart attack, stroke or whatever - then the remaining person could carry on the mission. But with a one person crew dying? No mission. But on a two person crew: what would they do with the body!!


Dinner.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JasonAW3 on 02/23/2013 01:16 PM
And sorry to be so pragmatic - but if one crew member died of a heart attack, stroke or whatever - then the remaining person could carry on the mission. But with a one person crew dying? No mission. But on a two person crew: what would they do with the body!!


Dinner.

I can just see it,

     "Yes, my poor deceased crew person was a person of exceptional taste... BURP!"


Jason
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 01:45 PM
Four launches.

From the Cape:  Tito and friend in a Dragon Capsule and trunk with a logistics module behind it.

From Texas: logistics module, with possible lander.

From Vandenburg: 2 launches, one Falcon heavy with VASMIR engines and fuel, solar panels etc.  Two, Falcon XX with a BA3300 habitat module.

......................

BA3300 has 3300 cubic meters of volume, even with a fly-by only mission, should be enough volume to keep everyone sane.

And what would your proposal have to do with the planned mission? Yours may be how NASA would go about it. If they would draw a plan.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 01:46 PM
And sorry to be so pragmatic - but if one crew member died of a heart attack, stroke or whatever - then the remaining person could carry on the mission. But with a one person crew dying? No mission. But on a two person crew: what would they do with the body!!


Dinner.

Did you read "The Martian"?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/23/2013 01:50 PM
     "Yes, my poor deceased crew person was a person of exceptional taste... BURP!"

Today's Inspiration Mars Journey Update was sponsored by Jack Link's Beef Jerky, mmmmmmm Beef Jerky!
Strong CME predicted for tomorrow, tune in again for another update, sponsored by KFC!
And now some commercial messages...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 02:14 PM
Bigelows have yet to be tested with human crews and their overall test program is painfully slow and drawn out - I don't know if anything significant can be finalized and declared operational with them in the fairly short time frame Mr Tito has. Although Dragon's haven't flown crew yet either - that part of their development is well underway. Also; borrowing from the 'kissing Orions' idea adds redundancy with two hulls, heatshields etc. Besides; 2x Orions would offer the better part of 20 cubic meters of habitable volume - not bad for a crew of two.

NASA is going to put a BEAM on the ISS. They plan to keep it locked I know. What do you think testing is necessary? It is proven it stays airtight by the two test articles flown. The resistance against micrometeorites and radiation can be tested and is known to be better than the ISS modules presently flying, at least according to Bigelow.

For me that would be good enough.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/23/2013 02:25 PM
I think they should aim for a lunar orbit mission first. (assuming its manned). Mars is far too ambitious in the time frame.
However they may have something new. The press conference will tell.

Great party.  Sorry I'm late.

Of course, they should visit Luna first. There is something I'm not getting about this rash of announcements over the last few years.

inspirationmarsfoundation.org and .com were registered .. today .. by a norwegian fellow. Member of Mars expedition or fast domain name entrepreneurship?

Foundation was registered in Delaware end of january this year. So it looks like more like a domain grabber than someone involved. I'm sure, the foundation has already the domains they wanted.

Thanks for a bit of investigative journalism.

[That other poster is] making an absolutist comparison when a relative comparison is called for.

Bingo.

Would I take that ride to Mars with a 1% chance of death? Certainly yes.

I'm sure you would, but then, there's no shortage of unqualified volunteers.  OTOH, there is a shortage of qualified employees who could serve.

501 days? Levi's sponsorship? Remember, you heard it here first. ;)

And if they're four days late, they won't lose their sponsorship.

I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.

It is because of the planetary alignment, so you can do a free return flight.

something like in this picture.

There's no time frame on that picture.  Attached is a chart from HSMAD, showing the timeframe of a similar mission.

Larson & Pranke suggest 946 days, but hey:  I suppose they aren't the experts either.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/23/2013 02:39 PM
Quote
I am interested to learn what is so special with the 2018 date.

It is because of the planetary alignment, so you can do a free return flight.

something like in this picture.

There's no time frame on that picture.  Attached is a chart from HSMAD, showing the timeframe of a similar mission.

Larson & Pranke suggest 946 days, but hey:  I suppose they aren't the experts either.

That is for a mars surface mission, not a free return flyby.

The 2018 opportunity is special also because it is at the minimum of the solar cycle, so the likelihood of a solar flare is very much reduced.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/23/2013 02:44 PM
You can't just use a conjuction-class trajectory as the basis for this mission; those are based on minimizing the delta v to stop at Mars and get going again. This mission does not stop at Mars, and in fact gets a considerable gravity assist from the planet.

The tweets that Jon linked to here show the actual trajectory:

Just noticed this series of relevant tweets from Mike Loucks (a friend of mine who's one of the coauthors on the IEEE paper) describing the trajectory they're looking at a bit:

https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305154592260374528
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305154592260374528/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155051947708417
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155051947708417/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155492009897986
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305155492009897986/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305156162469376000
https://twitter.com/Astrogator_Mike/status/305156162469376000/photo/1

Basically no they're not doing a Venus swingby, but the perihelion almost gets down to Venus orbit.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 02:44 PM

Would I take that ride to Mars with a 1% chance of death? Certainly yes.

I'm sure you would, but then, there's no shortage of unqualified volunteers.  OTOH, there is a shortage of qualified employees who could serve.

It's not about me voluteering. It was about a false analogy. And they would not send any employees but more likely the sponsors themselves would want to go. Or a sponsor teams up with someone who wants to go.

What qualifications do you deem necessary? Decent education and intelligence, good general health with the ability to adapt to microgravity (which would rule me out  :'(). You don't need a test pilot or astronaut or scientist.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/23/2013 02:47 PM
You can't just use a conjuction-class trajectory as the basis for this mission; those are based on minimizing the delta v to stop at Mars and get going again. This mission does not stop at Mars, and in fact gets a considerable gravity assist from the planet.

It is not a conjunction class trajectory but would not opportunities exist in the same rythm as conjunction class? It is just that 1018 provides an opportunity to do this kind of trajectory with lower delta-v or am I wrong?

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: robert_d on 02/23/2013 03:24 PM
As long as we are all brainstorming - what about a double (leg) amputee as one of the crew? Reduces the need for consumables and space while maintaining the intellectual and human aspects.  Would engage a whole segment of the population that might otherwise not take much notice.
Bob_D
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/23/2013 03:47 PM
Reduces the need for consumables and space while maintaining ... the human aspects.

Let's go further than amputees, solve all the consumable and space issues and send dozens, maybe hundreds of people to participate in this voyage; Thermos full on frozen embryos.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mrmandias on 02/23/2013 04:31 PM
As long as we are all brainstorming - what about a double (leg) amputee as one of the crew? Reduces the need for consumables and space while maintaining the intellectual and human aspects.  Would engage a whole segment of the population that might otherwise not take much notice.
Bob_D

Crazy idea that would never happen, but it does make sense.  Especially since the aim of the mission is publicity and inspiration, having an amputee onboard would be great for soft, gauzy specials on Lifetime or equivalent.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: thomson on 02/23/2013 04:44 PM
Do we have any estimates about FH production costs? Musk may chose to co-sponsor this by selling FH at cost.

He may also go all the way and donate FH, but that seems unlikely.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/23/2013 08:51 PM
1-As long as we are all brainstorming

2-what about a double (leg) amputee as one of the crew? Reduces the need for consumables and space while maintaining the intellectual and human aspects.  Would engage a whole segment of the population that might otherwise not take much notice.

1-Why do you assume that brains have been involved?

2-Would also work with a monkey.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 09:18 PM
And of course it is a pretty high risk mission.

People keep saying this, but why?

There is a risk of a life support system breakdown. Then, as you have pointed out, there is the risk of the crew developing psychological problems and doing something stupid. And then of course there is the risk of launch and reentry, and the risk of being hit by a solar flare.

We have decades of space station operations and have never had a mission terminating failure of the life support system.  The only unknows in this case are whether the proposal has enough redunancy, spares and skills to deal with the inevitable problems.  Until we see the details I don't think we can say.

Pyschological (and physical ones for that matter) are exaggerated.  In years of space station operation only one mission has been terminated for (physical health reasons.

Solar flare risks are not that high, 2018 is going to be a solar minimum, and providing 20 g/cm2 protection from a combination of the spacecraft hull and movable water bladders should be achieveable.

Launch and entry are risks common to all spaceflight, so probably not substantially greater than Earth orbit missions.

Quote
Still safer than many other extreme adventure activities like wingsuit flying though.

Very true!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 09:47 PM
A one-man mission should be feasible though.

Technically, yes, from from a human point of view that would be very challenging.  500 days is much longer than even non-stop solo circumnavigations (typically 10 months or less) or the longest solo stints in the polar regions (none I know of more than 12 months).

But a solo circumnavigation is much more stressful. You have to navigate through storms, perform exhausting physical activities, cope with sleep deprivation in time of bad weather etc.

In this mission you just have to stay alive, read your emails, and watch over the life support system.

Which is likely to be a full time and often stressful job as their lives, let alone the success of the mission will depend on it.

Because ignoring basic requirments for volume is like ignoring requirements for consumables.

I don't think so. It is at least physically possible to survive in close space. See various third-world prisons. [/quote]

And a great many people don't survive such conditions those that do often come out scarred physically and mentally.

This is not a survival exercise, we want the mission to have the best chance of succeeding.

Quote

Besides, there is a wide variety of medications available that can help with claustrophobia and other stresses. If you take medication against bone loss, why shouldn't you also take medication against claustrophobia? NASA would probably never allow mood-altering drugs for their astronauts. But why shoudn't a private mission do it if it increases the odds of success?

This is not a question of claustrophoboia, this is a question of minimum space requirements.  Also you want to minimise the taking of drugs, especially mood altering ones, because of the many side effects, especially in such an uncontrolled environment.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/23/2013 09:54 PM
About the Crew. I may prefer to go alone than with another man. The Bigelow Module would give enough space though for some privacy. The idea of a woman seems appealing. But it should not be a life partner. Few partnerships could survive that challenge.

I don't believe a testrun on earth would give good clues for a single person or a two person team. Under the pressure of necessity during the flight the dynamics are totally different.


No terrestrial comparison is perfect, but the general perception is there are many terrestrial counterparts that provide useful experience to spaceflight - polar exploration, long voyages, submarines - and have been extensively explored in the literature.

There have been a number of cases of couples undertaking long (12 month or more) adventures together in remote environments.  In every case I know of that has been written up (six that I know of) the relation was strengthened, and in ome case this was despite the fact that it had been on the rocks beforehand.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/23/2013 10:59 PM
Not taking into consideration the time & cost to have EVA suit rated for BEO uses. I don't think the ISS EVA suits are rated for BEO.

In what aspects does BEO vs LEO matter WRT a space suit?

The temperature environment is different with half the sky filled by warm earth in LEO. And the radiation environment in LEO is much more benign than in deep space because you are inside the earth magnetic field. (Not that you can do anything about it with a space suit, anyway)

I think current LEO spacesuits would work just fine for short excursions BEO.

But for this mission I think there simply is no mass budget for a spacesuit, an airlock and all the assorted hardware associated with EVAs.
Just a reminder, but deep-space EVAs similar to the kind we're talking about here have been done before, on at least one of the Apollo missions. It doesn't sound like a good idea to rely on this for consumables, though. Better to extract a small pressurized volume and dock with it ala Apollo, and store your consumables int there.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/24/2013 01:16 AM
Not taking into consideration the time & cost to have EVA suit rated for BEO uses. I don't think the ISS EVA suits are rated for BEO.

In what aspects does BEO vs LEO matter WRT a space suit?

The temperature environment is different with half the sky filled by warm earth in LEO. And the radiation environment in LEO is much more benign than in deep space because you are inside the earth magnetic field. (Not that you can do anything about it with a space suit, anyway)

I think current LEO spacesuits would work just fine for short excursions BEO.

But for this mission I think there simply is no mass budget for a spacesuit, an airlock and all the assorted hardware associated with EVAs.
Just a reminder, but deep-space EVAs similar to the kind we're talking about here have been done before, on at least one of the Apollo missions. It doesn't sound like a good idea to rely on this for consumables, though. Better to extract a small pressurized volume and dock with it ala Apollo, and store your consumables int there.

It was done on Apollo 15, 16 and 17.  With a standard space suit.  No deep space modifications.  Radiation and thermal issues did not seem to be a problem.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/24/2013 05:35 AM
Oh, I agree it could be done, just doesn't seem as practical to do a dozen or so EVAs when you could just dock with a small module with consumables, something the size of BEAM.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Spugpow on 02/24/2013 06:15 AM
If I recall correctly, the Apollo spacecraft did a slow "barbecue roll" in order to even out temperature gradients. How would a deep space Dragon regulate temperature?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/24/2013 06:19 AM
Oh, I agree it could be done, just doesn't seem as practical to do a dozen or so EVAs when you could just dock with a small module with consumables, something the size of BEAM.

The BEAM doesn't seem that big and is only a test article anyway. Could Bigelow get a fully man-rated version ready in time for the mission? Seems that a BA-330 would be a much better size, but that's not ready yet either.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Jason1701 on 02/24/2013 06:25 AM
Oh, I agree it could be done, just doesn't seem as practical to do a dozen or so EVAs when you could just dock with a small module with consumables, something the size of BEAM.

The BEAM doesn't seem that big and is only a test article anyway. Could Bigelow get a fully man-rated version ready in time for the mission? Seems that a BA-330 would be a much better size, but that's not ready yet either.

RTB stated he plans to have two BA-330s ready in 2016.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/24/2013 06:49 AM
Oh, I agree it could be done, just doesn't seem as practical to do a dozen or so EVAs when you could just dock with a small module with consumables, something the size of BEAM.

The BEAM doesn't seem that big and is only a test article anyway. Could Bigelow get a fully man-rated version ready in time for the mission? Seems that a BA-330 would be a much better size, but that's not ready yet either.

I just checked. It is really not very big with 11,5 m³. But that stiil would double the available volume. It would provide some small space for one person to find privacy even fully packed with consumables. And it would clear the space inside Dragon except for the ECLSS equipment. You could also chose something just a little bit bigger, depending on the mass budget.

What would be involved in making it manrated? For the scope of this mission basically providing airflow and maintaining the temperature. That the skin is airtight and provides protection against micrometeorites and  radiation protection against solar flares, especially when you consider the shielding provided by the consumables is given.

Of course something like the BA-330 would be great. But it is out of the scope of this mission.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/24/2013 07:19 AM
Oh, I agree it could be done, just doesn't seem as practical to do a dozen or so EVAs when you could just dock with a small module with consumables, something the size of BEAM.

The BEAM doesn't seem that big and is only a test article anyway. Could Bigelow get a fully man-rated version ready in time for the mission? Seems that a BA-330 would be a much better size, but that's not ready yet either.

I just checked. It is really not very big with 11,5 m³. But that stiil would double the available volume. It would provide some small space for one person to find privacy even fully packed with consumables. And it would clear the space inside Dragon except for the ECLSS equipment. You could also chose something just a little bit bigger, depending on the mass budget.

What would be involved in making it manrated? For the scope of this mission basically providing airflow and maintaining the temperature. That the skin is airtight and provides protection against micrometeorites and  radiation protection against solar flares, especially when you consider the shielding provided by the consumables is given.

Of course something like the BA-330 would be great. But it is out of the scope of this mission.

Everything that is attached to the pressurized volume of the iss is manrated. Maintaining the temperature would be done by the eclss of the dragon. And the beam is exactly the right size for this application.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/24/2013 01:01 PM
"It is assumed that the ECLSS hardware would be required to be designed, developed, and delivered to the Prime integrator approximately two years ahead of the launch date to accommodate system level integration, and sufficient testing to thoroughly vet the practical operating characteristics, limits and weaknesses. This drives an ECLSS hardware delivery date of February, 2016."

Also says:

"The volume and mass considerations have limited the crew number to two individuals. At a current value of roughly 7m3, the representative spacecraft free volume is deemed adequate. However, given the requirement for food and water storage and additional equipment and access, the free volume could shrink considerably. Prior studies we have performed indicated that for this mission duration, crew volumes of less than 3-5 m3 per person would border on untenable. Available crew volume is a significant consideration for this mission."

Also pretty clear that they need extensive NASA support for the ECLSS system. Dunno how they are going to spin up NASA to do this fast in the midst of a budget crisis. I'd also point out that politically this would be risky for NASA to do, because if NASA provides extensive support, then people are going to start to consider this a NASA mission and if it fails (especially if the life support fails) then NASA will get the blame.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/24/2013 01:36 PM
@Blackstar

Your post #254 today seems to be a quote. May I ask where is it quoted from?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/24/2013 02:43 PM
where is it quoted from?

Please let it not be the IEEE paper.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Bob Shaw on 02/24/2013 03:29 PM
Er... ...how do we know they're talking about a manned mission? Perhaps it's a demo flight by living creatures there and back again. Ideally, you'd kill off a sample and freeze it every now and then (75 soup-can containers containing shrimp, water, lights... ...freeze 'em hard and fast, one can a week, and do the science after splashdown). Or, just send seeds (animal sperm or plants) and distribute them a la the Moon Trees, one Mars Mouse and a Mars Tree to every school in the US...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Hauerg on 02/24/2013 04:03 PM
Er... ...how do we know they're talking about a manned mission? Perhaps it's a demo flight by living creatures there and back again. Ideally, you'd kill off a sample and freeze it every now and then (75 soup-can containers containing shrimp, water, lights... ...freeze 'em hard and fast, one can a week, and do the science after splashdown). Or, just send seeds (animal sperm or plants) and distribute them a la the Moon Trees, one Mars Mouse and a Mars Tree to every school in the US...

Because an unmanned mission would need to be a landing mission, and we "know" that life support is involved. So... oh, maybe we are back to Elons first vision of a mission to mars, the little plant thing....
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/24/2013 07:05 PM
Also pretty clear that they need extensive NASA support for the ECLSS system. Dunno how they are going to spin up NASA to do this fast in the midst of a budget crisis. I'd also point out that politically this would be risky for NASA to do, because if NASA provides extensive support, then people are going to start to consider this a NASA mission and if it fails (especially if the life support fails) then NASA will get the blame.

The best you can hope from NASA for a mission like this is to refrain from active interference.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/24/2013 07:38 PM
Presumably, any NASA "help" would be through an unfunded SAA?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/24/2013 09:57 PM
"It is assumed that the ECLSS hardware would be required to be designed, developed, and delivered to the Prime integrator approximately two years ahead of the launch date to accommodate system level integration, and sufficient testing to thoroughly vet the practical operating characteristics, limits and weaknesses. This drives an ECLSS hardware delivery date of February, 2016."

Also says:

"The volume and mass considerations have limited the crew number to two individuals. At a current value of roughly 7m3, the representative spacecraft free volume is deemed adequate. However, given the requirement for food and water storage and additional equipment and access, the free volume could shrink considerably. Prior studies we have performed indicated that for this mission duration, crew volumes of less than 3-5 m3 per person would border on untenable. Available crew volume is a significant consideration for this mission."


So one Dragon, two people.  The basic Dragon has a pressurised volume of 10 m3, 7m3 would be the free volume, which seems about right.  That is 3.5 m3 per person, which indeed "would border on the untenable" for 500 days. Reduce the volume still further with all that is needed for for those 500 days and it becomes impossible (except perhaps as a mere survival exercise).

Whoever this is quote is from seems to recognise this.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/25/2013 12:08 AM
Trying to put free volumes into terms people can visualise.

2.5 m3 ~ domestic shower cubical (or airline toilet)

3.7 m3 ~ domestic toilet cubical

6.3 m ~ walk in wardrobe

7.5 m3 ~ on-suite

15 m3  ~ domestic bathroom

23 m3 ~ very small hotel room, no bathroom

30 m3 ~ small hotel room & on-suite

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.



Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/25/2013 12:21 AM
You can use volume more efficiently in space. And it isn't linear with number of people, since you can have small dedicated volumes and larger shared volumes, using space more efficiently.

If this wasn't true (or if the opposite were true), then you'd simply segregate the two crew to each have half the total volume and no shared spaces.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Bubbinski on 02/25/2013 12:23 AM
So if they only use the Dragon capsule on this Mars mission, the astronauts would be living in the equivalent of a toilet cubicle each for 500 plus days?  One of the Gemini crews spent two weeks with the equivalent of a phone booth each for a living space, but...a year and a half? 

I'm not sure how doable that is.  I would think some kind of habitat module would have to be involved.  But we'll see what they announce on Wednesday.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: joek on 02/25/2013 12:25 AM
Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31194.msg1016851#msg1016851) "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/25/2013 12:26 AM
This isn't going to be a luxury cruise, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/25/2013 02:19 AM
Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31194.msg1016851#msg1016851) "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.

 It is the tolerable lower limit.  Anything less is intolerable.  Five hundred days in the free space of a large walk-in wardrobe. It is also the free space. Triple it for pressurised volume. 
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: sanman on 02/25/2013 05:21 AM
I thought Musk famously exclaimed that if you tried to go to Mars in Dragon, you'd come back "bag" (not quite sure what it's British slang for, but I assume he meant all worn out)

So I don't see why he'd agree to participate in Tito's adventure unless there was scope to create some kind of improved hab for the journey.

And look at it this way - if Tito did succeed even on just a circum-Mars flyby, then it would pave the way for other jet-set millionaire adventurers to follow in those footsteps. This could be the new "climbing Everest" trip for the next generation of fearless intrepid achievers.


(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? At least it's closer and has a damn atmosphere, if nothing else)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ludus on 02/25/2013 05:37 AM
This mission seems to be the Zubrin FH Mars mission minus the two FH launches needed to send the lander and the return vehicle. That design had a two man crew in a Dragon with a Bigelow module like a BEAM tucked into the Dragons trunk space.

.
Quote
Here are further answers relating to concerns that have been advanced.

1. Habitable volume.
As noted, if the Dragon capsule alone is used, this provides 5 m3 living volume per crew member, which compares to 2 m3 per crew on an Apollo capsule, 9 m3 per crew member on the Space Shuttle, or 8 m3 per crew member on a German U-Boat (Type VII, the fleet workhorse) during WWII. This would be uncomfortable, but ultimately, workable by a truly dedicated crew. However these limits can be transcended. The Dragon has a 14m3 cargo area hold below the aeroshield. Into this we could pack an inflatable hab module, in deflated form, but which if inflated, could be as much as 8 m in diameter and perhaps 10 m long, thereby providing 3 decks, with added volume of 502 m3 and a total floor space equal to 1.5 times as much as that in the Mars Society's MDRS or FMARS stations, which have proved adequate in size for crews of 6. After Trans Mars injection, the Dragon would pull away from the cargo section and turn around, then return to mate its docking hatch with one in the inflatable. It would then pull the inflatable out of the cargo hold, much as the Apollo command module pulled out the LEM. The inflatable could then be inflated. The other end of the inflatable would be attached to the tether, which is connected to the TMI stage, for use in creating artificial gravity.

Most of the points that Zubrin made for that idea would apply to Tito's mission. On balance this free return version would be safer. No greater radiation risk and less risk from failure of other critical systems since it's much simpler.

It seems likely that any obvious problems with that element of Zubrins plan would have been covered by now, which leads me to think this mission is plausible.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/25/2013 05:46 AM
...
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? ...)

There are actually a lot of reasons you can't do that, most of them political/legal (it's treated as a kind of giant international park/reserve... you can't do any mining, nothing can be completely permanent; all the land is claimed by one nation or another so if you violate these rules you're asking for trouble). Though I would support an effort to do so.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: simonbp on 02/25/2013 05:50 AM
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? At least it's closer and has a damn atmosphere, if nothing else)

Because someone has done it before. Noone has been beyond Earth orbit, let alone to Mars. We remember Amundsen and Scott, not Joe Blow the modern glaciologist who goes down to the station named after them. A modern scientist might do more interesting science than early explorers, but is only able to because the explorers went first.

We need crazy people like Tito to break psychological barriers and allow humanity to progress. It's been technologically possible to something like this for decades, but noone's been willing to risk going first. If they pull this off, and especially if they pull it off for cheap, that barrier will break, and schemes like Musk's Mars colony will make a lot more sense.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: sanman on 02/25/2013 06:05 AM
I think that the strenuous conditions/duration of a circum-Mars mission would require Bigelow's biggest hab, the BA-2100/Olympus, or maybe even something larger. Bigelow's hab ambitions seem limited only by the size of available launch vehicles, and if/when the Falcon Heavy successor or MCT comes around then I'd bet he'd go in for an even bigger hab to fit the max payload capacity. The bigger the better, of course.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ludus on 02/25/2013 06:06 AM
Some comments on paying for it.

I think the first step assuming a detailed plan would be recruiting a major billionaire anchor. A serious 10B plus heavyweight like Allen,Page, Brin,Bezos. Tito himself has enough money and credibility to get his calls answered but no where near enough to anchor the project.

This anchor would agree to take on the role of project backer/guarantor but wouldn't expect it to end up costing him anything. He would provider his amex unobtanium card to assure the project will happen...and create a team to take advantage of the confidence that this is a real thing to raise the 1B or so budget.

Given a "real" project guaranteed by a guy with the credit line to make it so...I think making a billion from media and marketing sales would pretty trivial.

The reality shows based on Mars Inspiration would start within months, 4years before the launch. Thousands of people would sign up to compete for the chance to risk their lives on this mission. This show would sell in tv markets all over the world in variations. As the publicity built on itself lot's of brands would compete for sponsorships and endorsements.

100's of millions were made by shows with trivial artificial risks and politics. This stuff is human and real. It would pull in billions before the launch over more than 4 years...before even selling the rights to coverage of the life and death drama of the final crew members adventure.

Billionaires are used to getting most stuff free. Rolexes come in gift baskets as party favors because rolex hopes they will be seen wearing it. The anchor sponsor of this would reasonably expect to pay nothing in the end and maybe make something.

Spacex would benefit enormously from being the hardware provider making it possible. Priceless free publicity and they get paid regular rates.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ludus on 02/25/2013 06:12 AM
I think that the strenuous conditions/duration of a circum-Mars mission would require Bigelow's biggest hab, the BA-2100/Olympus, or maybe even something larger. Bigelow's hab ambitions seem limited only by the size of available launch vehicles, and if/when the Falcon Heavy successor or MCT comes around then I'd bet he'd go in for an even bigger hab to fit the max payload capacity. The bigger the better, of course.

Everything but the Dragon trunk sized 1K kg versions would mean multiple launches, multiplying cost and complexity. See Zubrin FH Mars mission.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ludus on 02/25/2013 06:16 AM
...
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? ...)

There are actually a lot of reasons you can't do that, most of them political/legal (it's treated as a kind of giant international park/reserve... you can't do any mining, nothing can be completely permanent; all the land is claimed by one nation or another so if you violate these rules you're asking for trouble). Though I would support an effort to do so.

...and of course there have been permanent stations there for many decades and it wouldn't make history or have any media or marketing value.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/25/2013 06:57 AM
Trying to put free volumes into terms people can visualise.

2.5 m3 ~ domestic shower cubical (or airline toilet)

3.7 m3 ~ domestic toilet cubical

6.3 m ~ walk in wardrobe

7.5 m3 ~ on-suite

15 m3  ~ domestic bathroom

23 m3 ~ very small hotel room, no bathroom

30 m3 ~ small hotel room & on-suite

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

Not everyone in the world lives in first world accomodations. See for example http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html).

I agree that two people in a dragon stuffed full of consumables is probably taking it a bit too far, but attaching another 10m^3 of volume via a lightweight pressurized habitat like the bigelow BEAM, or reducing the crew to one, it becomes borderline plausible.

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31194.msg1016851#msg1016851) "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.

 It is the tolerable lower limit.  Anything less is intolerable.  Five hundred days in the free space of a large walk-in wardrobe. It is also the free space. Triple it for pressurised volume. 

Why should free volume be only 1/3 of pressurized volume? You need a certain volume for life support and consumables. But everything you add in addition to that, like a small inflatable module is pure free space, no?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: kkattula on 02/25/2013 07:06 AM
I was going to wait for the presser to comment, but I have to say I'll be disappointed if its just a fly-by. Seems a bit pointless. Huge effort and risk, for little reward.

How much more delta-v would be required to enter a highly elliptical orbit with a lowish perigee? Even if that took it from single FH to dual FH launches, the improved return would be worth it. IMO.

Plus added margin for supplies and a habitat module. Maybe even the possibility of a Phobos &/or Deimos rendezvous.

Mars orbit, moon(s) sample return, that would be inspirational!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: sanman on 02/25/2013 07:16 AM
I don't even see any of these "biodome" style simulated Mars trip research projects doing it in 10m3 per person. So somebody had better try to do a rehearsal for it here on the ground, rather than guinea-pigging themselves in space, where things could get ugly.

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Bob Shaw on 02/25/2013 07:57 AM
Er... ...how do we know they're talking about a manned mission? Perhaps it's a demo flight by living creatures there and back again. Ideally, you'd kill off a sample and freeze it every now and then (75 soup-can containers containing shrimp, water, lights... ...freeze 'em hard and fast, one can a week, and do the science after splashdown). Or, just send seeds (animal sperm or plants) and distribute them a la the Moon Trees, one Mars Mouse and a Mars Tree to every school in the US...

Because an unmanned mission would need to be a landing mission, and we "know" that life support is involved. So... oh, maybe we are back to Elons first vision of a mission to mars, the little plant thing....

Why would an unmanned mission "need" to be a landing mission? And "life support" doesn't mean human life (ask Laika, or Ham!). Most of the life within Biosphere 2 was non-human...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/25/2013 09:36 AM
Trying to put free volumes into terms people can visualise.

2.5 m3 ~ domestic shower cubical (or airline toilet)

3.7 m3 ~ domestic toilet cubical

6.3 m ~ walk in wardrobe

7.5 m3 ~ on-suite

15 m3  ~ domestic bathroom

23 m3 ~ very small hotel room, no bathroom

30 m3 ~ small hotel room & on-suite

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

Not everyone in the world lives in first world accomodations. See for example http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html).

But those people don’t spend the whole time in those hutches.  They can go outside (to work, to the shops, or simply to exercise), have communal living and hygiene facilities.  There are even photos in that article of these spaces.  No comparison with two people going to Mars in a Dragon.

Quote
I agree that two people in a dragon stuffed full of consumables is probably taking it a bit too far, but attaching another 10m^3 of volume via a lightweight pressurized habitat like the bigelow BEAM, or reducing the crew to one, it becomes borderline plausible.

I agree, it is just possible, especially as BEAM is supposedly 16 m3. 

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31194.msg1016851#msg1016851) "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.

 It is the tolerable lower limit.  Anything less is intolerable.  Five hundred days in the free space of a large walk-in wardrobe. It is also the free space. Triple it for pressurised volume. 

Why should free volume be only 1/3 of pressurized volume? You need a certain volume for life support and consumables. But everything you add in addition to that, like a small inflatable module is pure free space, no?
[/quote]

That was my memory of the rule of thumb relationship given in Larson and Pranke WRT long duration spaceflight. I have double checked (chapters 6, 12 and 18) and it is more like ½, so not quite as bad as I thought.  Storing consumables in the trunk would help. But even in a basic Dragon for Earth orbit missions equipment takes up a quarter of the total pressurised volume, as has already been stated.  It’s already below the tolerable limit for a long duration flight.

So yes, an inflatable would help! How much volume would an uninflated BEAM take up in the trunk?  Would there be sufficient volume left over for the breathing gases, water, propellant and systems?

Three more days till we get answers! I hope....
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/25/2013 10:04 AM
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? ...)
all the land is claimed by one nation or another

*raising nitpicking finger* Marie Byrd Land is still up for grabs.

But Antarctica is poor long term Mars simulator. Mars isn't pitch black half the year, quite nice actually at the equator.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Zed_Noir on 02/25/2013 10:19 AM
I think the Bigelow BEAM is a non-starter for this mission. From the various media tidbits, only one Falcon Heavy is involved. Basically all the supplies for the mission will have to be in place at launch. So the BEAM got to be filled with supplies and be inflated.

I posted up thread about using the initial small Cygnus Pressurized module as the hab. It would fit inside an extended Dragon trunk. The PCM got internal volume of 18 cubic meters.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/25/2013 10:31 AM
There are a lot of yellow flags on this one; it's going to be hard to meet the launch window and the proposed architecture is just barely on the nice side of 'possible/impossible'.  I really don't think that doing this with just a Dragon is practicable.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/25/2013 10:34 AM
I think the Bigelow BEAM is a non-starter for this mission. From the various media tidbits, only one Falcon Heavy is involved. Basically all the supplies for the mission will have to be in place at launch. So the BEAM got to be filled with supplies and be inflated.

I posted up thread about using the initial small Cygnus Pressurized module as the hab. It would fit inside an extended Dragon trunk. The PCM got internal volume of 18 cubic meters.

And what would be the weight of that module compared to a BEAM? Certainly a lot more, too much for the mission. It would be possible to store most of the consumables in Dragon for launch and transfer it to the BEAM after Mars insertion once it is inflated. Part of the consumables could already be in the deflated module.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Zed_Noir on 02/25/2013 11:31 AM
I think the Bigelow BEAM is a non-starter for this mission. From the various media tidbits, only one Falcon Heavy is involved. Basically all the supplies for the mission will have to be in place at launch. So the BEAM got to be filled with supplies and be inflated.

I posted up thread about using the initial small Cygnus Pressurized module as the hab. It would fit inside an extended Dragon trunk. The PCM got internal volume of 18 cubic meters.

And what would be the weight of that module compared to a BEAM? Certainly a lot more, too much for the mission. It would be possible to store most of the consumables in Dragon for launch and transfer it to the BEAM after Mars insertion once it is inflated. Part of the consumables could already be in the deflated module.


According to the Thales web site. The PCM have dry mass of 1500 kg with usable volume of about 18 m3.

That compares with the BEAM dry mass of 1360 kg with usable volume of about 16 m3 from the Bigelow web site.

So the PCM is 140 kg  more than the BEAM, but you get 2 more m3.

Using the PCM give you a total of 23 m3 that you can place the supplies in at launch. According to someone up thread the Dragon will have 7 m3 of livable volume. So 18 m3 in the PCM + 7m3 in the Dragon min a couple of m3 for the crew give you 23 m3 of storage. So the 2 crew members will each have about 11 m3  of supplies.

You suggestion of transferring supplies from the Dragon will reduce the supplies available from what can be place in an un-inflated BEAM plus what can place in the Dragon. Not even certain you can place anything inside un-inflated BEAM. Hopefully @Orbital Debris can enlighten us on that.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/25/2013 12:06 PM
According to the Thales web site. The PCM have dry mass of 1500 kg with usable volume of about 18 m3.

That compares with the BEAM dry mass of 1360 kg with usable volume of about 16 m3 from the Bigelow web site.

So the PCM is 140 kg  more than the BEAM, but you get 2 more m3.

Using the PCM give you a total of 23 m3 that you can place the supplies in at launch. According to someone up thread the Dragon will have 7 m3 of livable volume. So 18 m3 in the PCM + 7m3 in the Dragon min a couple of m3 for the crew give you 23 m3 of storage. So the 2 crew members will each have about 11 m3  of supplies.

You suggestion of transferring supplies from the Dragon will reduce the supplies available from what can be place in an un-inflated BEAM plus what can place in the Dragon. Not even certain you can place anything inside un-inflated BEAM. Hopefully @Orbital Debris can enlighten us on that.

That does sound like an interesting alternative to the BEAM. BTW no need to fit it into the Dragon trunk unless total length becomes an issue. That module BEAM or PCM needs to be attached to the stage for the Dragon to connect to it.

Edit again: Unless the total weight of the PCM would be enough to allow connecting.

Edit: corrected quote stacking.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/25/2013 04:53 PM
Neither Bigelow nor BEAM are mentioned in the IEEE paper.

Is identity of the Prime Integrator specified?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mrmandias on 02/25/2013 05:21 PM
I thought Musk famously exclaimed that if you tried to go to Mars in Dragon, you'd come back "bag" (not quite sure what it's British slang for, but I assume he meant all worn out)

So I don't see why he'd agree to participate in Tito's adventure unless there was scope to create some kind of improved hab for the journey.

Yes, a disastrous outcome is extremely bad publicity for the Dragon.  Musk will probably have to be sold on the viability of the mission before he'd go along.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mrmandias on 02/25/2013 05:25 PM
Some comments on paying for it.

I think the first step assuming a detailed plan would be recruiting a major billionaire anchor. A serious 10B plus heavyweight like Allen,Page, Brin,Bezos. Tito himself has enough money and credibility to get his calls answered but no where near enough to anchor the project.

This anchor would agree to take on the role of project backer/guarantor but wouldn't expect it to end up costing him anything. He would provider his amex unobtanium card to assure the project will happen...and create a team to take advantage of the confidence that this is a real thing to raise the 1B or so budget.

Given a "real" project guaranteed by a guy with the credit line to make it so...I think making a billion from media and marketing sales would pretty trivial.

The reality shows based on Mars Inspiration would start within months, 4years before the launch. Thousands of people would sign up to compete for the chance to risk their lives on this mission. This show would sell in tv markets all over the world in variations. As the publicity built on itself lot's of brands would compete for sponsorships and endorsements.

100's of millions were made by shows with trivial artificial risks and politics. This stuff is human and real. It would pull in billions before the launch over more than 4 years...before even selling the rights to coverage of the life and death drama of the final crew members adventure.

Billionaires are used to getting most stuff free. Rolexes come in gift baskets as party favors because rolex hopes they will be seen wearing it. The anchor sponsor of this would reasonably expect to pay nothing in the end and maybe make something.

Spacex would benefit enormously from being the hardware provider making it possible. Priceless free publicity and they get paid regular rates.

!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ludus on 02/25/2013 07:09 PM

!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .


I suspect a couple would maximize interest and media value. I think people picture the Apollo era media coverage and the fact people got bored quickly...but it was a different global media environment and not designed for commercial benefit. People also are focused on media and marketing during the mission itself and I think it could easily pay for itself just in the run-up....if it's a completely serious funded project rather than the typical speculation.

If It was a weeklong lunar free return I'd actually expect some billionaire interest in being a passenger. Inspiration I suspect is to arduous and dangerous for that...but not for billionaire backing and a lot of other volunteers.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/25/2013 07:31 PM
So yes, an inflatable would help! How much volume would an uninflated BEAM take up in the trunk?  Would there be sufficient volume left over for the breathing gases, water, propellant and systems?

The BEAM fits into a standard sized trunk. So if you would use an extended trunk you would have some more room.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JcsoyMDRQ (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JcsoyMDRQ)

Although it would be a major redesign to use the trunk space for consumables. AFAIK, the standard dragon has no fluid connections from the trunk to the capsule, since the trunk is just empty space and attachment for the solar array.

Quote
Three more days till we get answers! I hope....

As I said, I suspect they want to do it without any extra living space.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Hauerg on 02/25/2013 07:45 PM
...

Because an unmanned mission would need to be a landing mission, and we "know" that life support is involved. So... oh, maybe we are back to Elons first vision of a mission to mars, the little plant thing....

Why would an unmanned mission "need" to be a landing mission? And "life support" doesn't mean human life (ask Laika, or Ham!). Most of the life within Biosphere 2 was non-human...
Agree on "life support", basically that's what I wrote above.
Why I think an "unmanned" mission would need to include landing? Imagine an unmanned mission which bis just a swingby flight. Freezing samples etc. makes a lot of sense. Scientifically speaking. But no "inspiration" at all. Not even something for the record books. So either manned or landing. And - of course - not both.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/25/2013 07:47 PM
Agree on "life support", basically that's what I wrote above.
Why I think an "unmanned" mission would need to include landing? Imagine an unmanned mission which bis just a swingby flight. Freezing samples etc. makes a lot of sense. Scientifically speaking. But no "inspiration" at all. Not even something for the record books. So either manned or landing. And - of course - not both.

Why you talk about a unmanned mission? Manned is confirmed by the IEEE papers.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/25/2013 09:19 PM
!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .

Astronaut Needs A Wife.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ludus on 02/25/2013 10:23 PM
I suspect that when you all see the paper you're going to be disappointed. It is a basic technical feasibility assessment, essentially saying that it is "possible." It leaves an awful lot of questions unanswered.

I just find it exciting from somebody like Tito who managed to get to the ISS against the opposition of NASA and has money and business credibility. A feasibility assessment with technical detail is all I'd really expect at this stage.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/25/2013 10:28 PM
I suspect that when you all see the paper you're going to be disappointed. It is a basic technical feasibility assessment, essentially saying that it is "possible." It leaves an awful lot of questions unanswered.

I'll admit that holding a big press conference unless they have something more than what was in the paper to talk about seems somewhat premature. As a feasibility assessment I thought the paper (or at least the draft version I've got) was pretty interesting. I had a couple of questions myself that I don't know if they answered in the final version or will discuss at the press conference. They've got my curiosity piqued to see where they're going with this.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/26/2013 12:57 AM
And as I mentioned before, they clearly need NASA's help (and NASA's money). Why should the agency give it to them?

Umm...while I clearly agree that they need NASA's help, it does not necessarily follow that they need NASA's money. The two main areas I remember them saying they wanted to work with NASA on was the TPS testing/validation for the high-speed reentry, and I think some additional input on the life-support system design. The former could readily be done as a Reimbursable Space Act Agreement if NASA didn't see any value to their own programs from the testing. As for the life support development input, that could be Reimbursable by this group, or if NASA was sufficiently interested in what they were doing (say for relevance to their own manned BEO activities) I guess they could do a non-reimbursable SAA effort.

I 100% agree that they'll have an almost impossible time doing this without accessing NASA expertise, but the way you wrote that last comment it made it look like they have no choice but to hit NASA up for money, which was not at all clear to me.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: spectre9 on 02/26/2013 01:11 AM
NASA doesn't make heat shields, Lockheed built the largest one ever for MSL.

SpaceX uses their own version of PICA, PICA-X

This is technology that already exists in the commercial world. Don't see why NASA is needed.

NASA only works with commercial crew as an oversight to make sure the companies stick to the strict NASA requirements.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/26/2013 01:21 AM
NASA doesn't make heat shields, Lockheed built the largest one ever for MSL.

SpaceX uses their own version of PICA, PICA-X

This is technology that already exists in the commercial world. Don't see why NASA is needed.

NASA only works with commercial crew as an oversight to make sure the companies stick to the strict NASA requirements.

Hypersonic test and analysis capabilities for a 14km/s reentry.

SpaceX leveraged NASA help in developing PICA-X, as has pretty much everyone else. Helping private entities leverage esoteric NASA expertise to enable private/commercial projects is an example of NASA doing things right, IMO.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/26/2013 01:27 AM
Ok.  So it wouldn't be a conjunction class trajectory.  since delta-vee is off the table, would it be one of these trajectories?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Jason1701 on 02/26/2013 02:17 AM
!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .

Astronaut Needs A Wife.


"Nothing Beats an Astronaut."
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 02/26/2013 02:56 AM
The website for the organization is now on at http://www.inspirationmars.org/ (http://www.inspirationmars.org/).

And there will be a webcast for the press conference! http://www.visualwebcaster.com/inspirationmars (http://www.visualwebcaster.com/inspirationmars)

BTW the page is showing Inspiration Mars - A Mission for America. I guess they won't be flying Continental hardware then.  ;)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Bubbinski on 02/26/2013 02:59 AM
A website called http://www.inspirationmars.org/ just popped up.  Has a link which I presume would be active for the Wednesday press conference.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Calphor on 02/26/2013 04:11 AM
I was going to wait for the presser to comment, but I have to say I'll be disappointed if its just a fly-by. Seems a bit pointless. Huge effort and risk, for little reward.

How much more delta-v would be required to enter a highly elliptical orbit with a lowish perigee? Even if that took it from single FH to dual FH launches, the improved return would be worth it. IMO.

Plus added margin for supplies and a habitat module. Maybe even the possibility of a Phobos &/or Deimos rendezvous.

Mars orbit, moon(s) sample return, that would be inspirational!

Color yourself disappointed. They will announce a free return flyby with a 2 person crew. The deltaV required to accomplish that "simple" mission is going to be enormous. Adding any additional mass will scuttle the opportunity.

The mission as proposed is bold and risky, but doable. I wish them the best and hope to be around to help them accomplish it.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/26/2013 04:27 AM
One other interesting point about the IEEE paper--apparently the draft I saw was the final version, because the papers were due in by December. Which means that there are several issues they've made a lot more progress on since the paper was submitted. Wish I could be there in person to see the presentation next week.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: spectre9 on 02/26/2013 05:49 AM
NASA doesn't make heat shields, Lockheed built the largest one ever for MSL.

SpaceX uses their own version of PICA, PICA-X

This is technology that already exists in the commercial world. Don't see why NASA is needed.

NASA only works with commercial crew as an oversight to make sure the companies stick to the strict NASA requirements.

Hypersonic test and analysis capabilities for a 14km/s reentry.

SpaceX leveraged NASA help in developing PICA-X, as has pretty much everyone else. Helping private entities leverage esoteric NASA expertise to enable private/commercial projects is an example of NASA doing things right, IMO.

~Jon

Thanks for the clarification. I can see what you mean now.  :)

I guess most of it would be covered by prior work on many other reentry shields like Orion which will be built for Mars return velocities.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/26/2013 06:31 AM
One other interesting point about the IEEE paper--apparently the draft I saw was the final version, because the papers were due in by December. Which means that there are several issues they've made a lot more progress on since the paper was submitted. Wish I could be there in person to see the presentation next week.

When is the paper going to be published?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/26/2013 12:38 PM
I checked out the inspiration mars web page.  The illustration there was an epiphany for me.  I had not realized that Mars' orbit was actually that close to Earth.  I no longer doubt manned missions to Mars in my lifetime.  I don't quite get why it takes 500 some odd days to go a few thousand miles, but hey.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/26/2013 12:48 PM
I checked out the inspiration mars web page.  The illustration there was an epiphany for me.  I had not realized that Mars' orbit was actually that close to Earth.  I no longer doubt manned missions to Mars in my lifetime.  I don't quite get why it takes 500 some odd days to go a few thousand miles, but hey.

If you stand far enough away at just the right angle, and then zoom in enough (assuming perfect optics but hey, this is my hypothetical) you can get that shot.

I haven't been there but they tell me it's nice[1].

Hope that helps!

1 - Gold records on the wall and everything.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/26/2013 01:14 PM
OK who picked the hammer-and-sickle red color for Mars? It's not that red of a planet   :P  Or maybe it's to lure funding from China.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: outward on 02/26/2013 02:19 PM
I was going to wait for the presser to comment, but I have to say I'll be disappointed if its just a fly-by. Seems a bit pointless. Huge effort and risk, for little reward.

How much more delta-v would be required to enter a highly elliptical orbit with a lowish perigee? Even if that took it from single FH to dual FH launches, the improved return would be worth it. IMO.

Plus added margin for supplies and a habitat module. Maybe even the possibility of a Phobos &/or Deimos rendezvous.

Mars orbit, moon(s) sample return, that would be inspirational!

Color yourself disappointed. They will announce a free return flyby with a 2 person crew. The deltaV required to accomplish that "simple" mission is going to be enormous. Adding any additional mass will scuttle the opportunity.

The mission as proposed is bold and risky, but doable. I wish them the best and hope to be around to help them accomplish it.
Is the required deltaV enormous? Isn’t the purpose of only a flyby, on a free return trajectory (along with a gravity assist or two) to keep the deltaV down to something modest (at least the deltaV required from the manned vehicle)? I thought, by definition, the idea of a free return meant that the initial deltaV (in this case that which pushes you out beyond the earth’s sphere of influence) would be sufficient to bring you back home: no additional push needed? So to get this mission headed in the right direction, we’re looking at accelerating the spacecraft to a speed just a bit beyond earth escape velocity, this occurring at the edge of the earth’s sphere of influence. Is this what others think, or am I off my physics rocker??
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/26/2013 02:34 PM
Is the required deltaV enormous?

Those pages from Larson & Pranke suggest pretty large delta-vees.  I don't know what a flyby trajectory should look like.  If they take any questions tomorrow, the best question for informing the armchair observers on this thread, would be regarding their proposed trajectory.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/26/2013 02:56 PM
Is the required deltaV enormous?

Those pages from Larson & Pranke suggest pretty large delta-vees.  I don't know what a flyby trajectory should look like.  If they take any questions tomorrow, the best question for informing the armchair observers on this thread, would be regarding their proposed trajectory.


Another question would be the launch window. How many days will they have to fly the planned trajectory?

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/26/2013 03:39 PM
The trajectory and launch window go hand in hand.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/26/2013 03:48 PM
  I don't know what a flyby trajectory should look like.

Jongoff already posted about possible candidate trajectory, see

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1016197#msg1016197 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1016197#msg1016197)

Would be interesting to know what's the required dv to inject into that orbit. Venus-flyby version posted before that listed 4.43km/s (from LEO AIUI)

Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mrmandias on 02/26/2013 04:03 PM
!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .

Astronaut Needs A Wife.


"Nothing Beats an Astronaut."

Stars in Her Eyes.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/26/2013 04:21 PM
  I don't know what a flyby trajectory should look like.

Jongoff already posted about possible candidate trajectory, see

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1016197#msg1016197 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1016197#msg1016197)

Would be interesting to know what's the required dv to inject into that orbit. Venus-flyby version posted before that listed 4.43km/s (from LEO AIUI)

Thanks for that.  Totally overlooked it.  So how much delta-vee does that trajectory include? 

Oh.  I may consider the twitterverse, FWIW, having seen that good information can happen in a few words.  I can evolve...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/26/2013 07:46 PM
Webcast!

Presser:

"Great news! The Inspiration Mars press conference will be available online at 1 p.m. ET tomorrow. Visit www.inspirationmars.org and register for the webcast by clicking “watch live.” Please note that the registration link is not yet activated but will be available for registration by tomorrow. Feel free to share this information with your readers and viewers. Thank you! "
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: AJW on 02/26/2013 08:12 PM
One of the key concerns for the Inspiration Mars mission is how it will be paid for.  I think the answer is easy and that is corporate sponsorship.  To put the numbers in perspective, Red Bull spent $900M in 2010 on advertising.  GoDaddy spent $100M and Apple alone spends $1B.  A single 30-second ad during the Super Bowl was over $3M.  Think what a few space trips did for Tang.  Now your product is going to Mars.

Back in 1993, Columbia Pictures spent $500K to put the name 'Last Action Hero' on the side of a 58-foot Conestoga rocket.  In 2000, Pizza Hut paid $1M to have their logo on a Russian Proton rocket that delivered mini pizzas to the ISS.  We just saw a LEGO space station sent and built on the ISS.  I am sure some money changed hands there.

There are some obvious candidates, Red Bull of course, but I think the list could be huge.  If the astronaut jumpsuits have so many patches they make those worn by Nascar drivers look tame, and the side of the launch vehicle looks like Times Square, so be it.  They should take every essential item on the trip and find a way to bid out the sponsorships.  While at it, sell the event just to one network, like the Super Bowl.  $1-10K to attend the launch?  That's a cheap to be part of history.

Buy any of these products and you will be helping send explorers to Mars!  I'm sure there are hundreds more.

$8M Water – Evian, Arrowhead, Aquafina, Dasani
$12M Beverages – Tang, Kool-Aid, CountryTime Lemonade, Hawaiian Punch, Gatorade…
$20M Energy Drink – Red Bull
$9M Dried Fruit – Del Monte, Dole, Sun-Maid, Ocean Spray…
$5M Cocoa – Swiss Miss, Ghiradelli, Hersheys…
$12M Coffee – Starbucks, Seattle’s Best, Yuban, Folgers…
$2M Condiments
$6M Crackers – Nabisco, Sunshine,
$25M Snacks – M&Ms, Reeses,
$8M Nuts – Planters, Fisher…
$3M Bread
$6M Tortillas
$15M Pizza – Pizza Hut, etc.

$15M – Astronaut Laptops
$5M Wheaties cover
$12M Streaming Movies – Netflix - keeping your astronauts entertained.

$5M Liquid Oxygen - Your explorers can't get off the ground without us.

$7M Lego (Make them edible)
$5M Video Game tie-in
$6M Camera Stills & Video
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: guckyfan on 02/26/2013 08:22 PM
How could you miss Mars bars? ;D
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: apace on 02/26/2013 08:25 PM
How could you miss Mars bars? ;D

Right, and the Mars Family has enough net worth to finance such a mission ;-)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: IRobot on 02/26/2013 09:05 PM
"Diapers.com, keeping you warm and comfortable on EVA's"
That should get some money!

"Marsmallows" <-- wanted to make a clever joke on this one but English is not my #1 language...
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Lar on 02/26/2013 10:08 PM
We just saw a LEGO space station sent and built on the ISS.  I am sure some money changed hands there.

 ... snip ...

$7M Lego (Make them edible)


I would be surprised if a lot of money (any money, actually) changed hands for the ISS model, but I'll ask some of my contacts...

As for edible LEGO elements, there's a competitive product
(http://www.oldtimecandy.com/assets/images/family/candy_blox_category.jpg)
from http://www.oldtimecandy.com/candy-blox.htm

LEGO themselves may not be keen on gumming up their molds with sugar but they might authorise ... wait for it ... 3D printing using sugar!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/26/2013 10:47 PM
One other interesting point about the IEEE paper--apparently the draft I saw was the final version, because the papers were due in by December. Which means that there are several issues they've made a lot more progress on since the paper was submitted. Wish I could be there in person to see the presentation next week.

When is the paper going to be published?

Sometime next week I think... The website doesn't say when the paper will be published, but I think IEEE charges for access to their papers.

~Jon

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/26/2013 11:13 PM
Thanks!

IEEE do charge, but not as much as some!
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Calphor on 02/27/2013 12:12 AM
Is the required deltaV enormous?

Those pages from Larson & Pranke suggest pretty large delta-vees.  I don't know what a flyby trajectory should look like.  If they take any questions tomorrow, the best question for informing the armchair observers on this thread, would be regarding their proposed trajectory.


C3 = 38.8 km2/sec2
deltaV = 4.86 km/sec from a 100nm circular orbit
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Atlan on 02/27/2013 12:16 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#

if this is true this project is already dead :)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 12:26 AM
Relevant part being the end:

Quote
Initial plans to use a heavy-lift rocket and capsule supplied by SpaceX, imploded, the industry officials said.

A spokeswoman for SpaceX said the company doesn't have a relationship with Mr. Tito's foundation.

Its latest concept carries a price tag of at least $1 billion, these officials said. Mr. Tito's group is talking to Boeing Co., BA +0.83% Lockheed Martin Corp. LMT -0.66% and NASA about possible hardware.

Joy.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Blackstar on 02/27/2013 01:06 AM
How could it cost $1 billion? As various people have claimed on this thread it should only cost less than a GEO comsat. $200 million tops.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: sittingduck on 02/27/2013 01:26 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#

if this is true this project is already dead :)

Any actual sources on the claims made in the article?  I read no names apart from "according to people familiar with the matter", "Industry officials" etc.  If true, I no longer see it happening. 

Surprised to see how many people in this thread seem to derive pleasure from wanting the plan to fail. ???
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Atlan on 02/27/2013 01:29 AM
Nonono i would like it to work. Thats why the "if". We'll see i a couple of hours.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 01:40 AM
Any actual sources on the claims made in the article?  I read no names apart from "according to people familiar with the matter", "Industry officials" etc.  If true, I no longer see it happening. 

Of course not. It's an Andy Pasztor article. If only we could get him working for Flight Global...

Quote
Surprised to see how many people in this thread seem to derive pleasure from wanting the plan to fail. ???

"wanting" has nothing to do with it. What I want is someone who isn't wasting our time. If you're going to call a press conference at all, have it be something which is actually doable with the funding you have. Take your $100M to SpaceX (or Boeing, or Lockheed Martin, or whoever) and ask them what they can do. Decide if that's how you want to spend your money and, if so, tell us all about it, if you like. Preferably after the first year or two of work has been done so you know SpaceX isn't going to pull out of the deal. *cough*Stratolaunch*cough*.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/27/2013 02:12 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#

if this is true this project is already dead :)

Why the smile?  Do you think being being "already dead" is a good thing?

It doesn't actually say the project it dead, only that unnamed "Industry officials" said that to use a heavy-lift rocket and space capsulefrom SpaceX "imploded". 

Discussions with Boeing and LM are being held.  Does this mean possible use of CST-100 and Orion? The article also talks about there being a formal relationship with NASA Ames.




Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/27/2013 02:21 AM
What's the pressurised volume of a CST-100?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 02:25 AM
Wondering if NASA wants to kill this project? SpaceX seems to want to be a long term NASA contributor for their projects. Elon Musk even stated so in a after splashdown interview. Is SpaceX attempting to help kill this project as a political way of aligning itself with future NASA missions? If SpaceX doesn't want the project not sure who would take it unless the Russians jumped in. Boeing can't take the ride, CST-100 is definitely not up for the job.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/27/2013 02:30 AM
Wondering if NASA wants to kill this project? SpaceX seems to want to be a long term NASA contributor for their projects. Elon Musk even stated so in a after splashdown interview. Is SpaceX attempting to help kill this project as a political way of aligning itself with future NASA missions?
If this is a Mars crewed flyby then what launch company would want to be part of this considering the risk of LOC during the in space flight?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: hop on 02/27/2013 02:32 AM
Discussions with Boeing and LM are being held.  Does this mean possible use of CST-100 and Orion? The article also talks about there being a formal relationship with NASA Ames.
Keeping in mind Musk's repeated assertions that Mars is the ultimate goal:
If concept or schedule was to aggressive or scary for SpaceX to buy into, what are the chances of LM or Boeing wanting to get involved? Even if they did, the cost would go up a lot.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 02:48 AM
This project is dead already if SpaceX is not involved. Everyone else would have to go back to square one with their spacecraft. Dragon would need enough refitting. Not going to happen.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/27/2013 02:51 AM
If this is a Mars crewed flyby then what launch company would want to be part of this considering the risk of LOC during the in space flight?

What is the supposed risk?  How much greater than current missions?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: sanman on 02/27/2013 03:04 AM
Better for an idea to fail out of the starting gate, then to recklessly go out on a wing and a prayer and result in a horrible disaster.

What would be the estimated travel time to Mars using existing technology?
(Boeing, Lockheed, or even SpaceX)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Dalhousie on 02/27/2013 03:08 AM
Better for an idea to fail out of the starting gate, then to recklessly go out on a wing and a prayer and result in a horrible disaster.

What would be the estimated travel time to Mars using existing technology?
(Boeing, Lockheed, or even SpaceX)

As has been said several times in this thread, the round trip is 500 days.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 03:14 AM
Wondering if NASA wants to kill this project? SpaceX seems to want to be a long term NASA contributor for their projects. Elon Musk even stated so in a after splashdown interview. Is SpaceX attempting to help kill this project as a political way of aligning itself with future NASA missions?

There's no need for the conspiracy theory. SpaceX probably just asked them for a deposit to show they're serious.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/27/2013 03:24 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#

if this is true this project is already dead :)

This WSJ article also sends a message that Dennis Tito is making this credible by potentially spending $100 million of his own money. The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion. If Tito spends the money, then people will do the work.

If SpaceX is completely uninvolved, then they could still launch using multiple flights of Proton rockets which launch every 2 weeks. They could rendezvous with an upper stage similar to the Space Adventures plan to fly 2 people to the Moon for $300 Million with a rendezvous in LEO with an upper stage. I think, however, that SpaceX will ultimately be involved if they are paid to do so. SpaceX will be a vendor and not a technology partner.

The most important team member is Paragon and their ability to create a habitat and a life support system that makes the 501 day trip survivable for 2 Astronauts. Paying for rockets and reentry capsules is not what is hard about this Mars flyby mission, but it is true that having SpaceX onboard could cut the cost from "over $1 Billion" to the $500 million that the WSJ reports.

The real point of the Dennis Tito press conference is to send the message to the world that NASA and others do not have to wait until the mid 2030s and spend $300 Billion in budget to attempt a rendezvous between Mars and humans in a spacecraft. The bloggers on this NSF thread could figure out in a week how to successfully conduct this Mars mission for under $1 Billion by 2018, and Dennis Tito (with his $100 million) can find ways to increase his credibility to attract the last $900 million needed to conduct this mission.

Dennis Tito will not wait until he is over 100 years old to see humans go to Mars when he can do it now for the $100 million he says he is willing to spend. James Cameron has directed 2 movies about crashing ships and space travel that have grossed well over $1 Billion each and attracted global audiences so this is doable.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: QuantumG on 02/27/2013 03:41 AM
Seems NASA Watch is saying Andy Pasztor is up to his usual tricks.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: kkattula on 02/27/2013 04:22 AM
Maybe SpaceX have their own BEO plans and see this as a distracting sideshow?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: joek on 02/27/2013 04:26 AM
The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion.

I admire the enthusiasm, but really... they only have to spend a maximum of ... that much?  Holy crud. $0.5-1.0B--even assuming those numbers are close to reality, that's... 1/6-1/3 of the annual world-wide  commercial launch market.  That's in the range of what SpaceX has spent to date.  We're talking serious money, effort and risk, with no clear return; only is not a word I would use.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 04:47 AM
Seems NASA Watch is saying Andy Pasztor is up to his usual tricks.

Yeah, some of his spin definitely does not jibe with what I've been hearing from my friends who are involved in this project.

~Jon
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/27/2013 04:47 AM
The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion.

I admire the enthusiasm, but really... they only have to spend a maximum of ... that much?  Holy crud. $0.5-1.0B--even assuming those numbers are close to reality, that's... 1/6-1/3 of the annual world-wide  commercial launch market.  That's in the range of what SpaceX has spent to date.  We're talking serious money, effort and risk, with no clear return; only is not a word I would use.

I think that you understand my main point which is that if Tito really spends $100 million of his own money, then that $100 million gives this human Mars flyby the credibility that it needs in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. He does not need to show the last bit of money until 2017 and 2018.

The $500 Million to $1 Billion is what Kistler spent in under 5 years on a rocket that went nowhere, so there are plenty of investors in the Arab world, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa, Latin America, etc. who could find this risk capital.

We are not talking serious money here when you put it into the perspective of an 80 year old man (or close to that) and the first trip, in over a billion years of the history of life on this Earth, of humans to Mars.

What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: RocketmanUS on 02/27/2013 05:07 AM
1M people with $1,000 = $1B.

1M people donate $83.34 per month for 12 months = a little over $1B

$83.34 is the cost for cable tv in the U.S.

So if 1M people in the U.S. like what they see after press conference then they just might be able to raise the needed funds. Not saying anyone should.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: joek on 02/27/2013 05:40 AM
I think that you understand my main point which is that if Tito really spends $100 million of his own money, then that $100 million gives this human Mars flyby the credibility that it needs in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. He does not need to show the last bit of money until 2017 and 2018.
Not necessarily.  Other investors are going to need more than one's money before they throw in their own money in any quantity.  While Tito has a track record, it's not recent and largely fringe and not anything to inspire confidence in recouping one's investment in such an enterprise.

Quote
The $500 Million to $1 Billion is what Kistler spent in under 5 years on a rocket that went nowhere, so there are plenty of investors in the Arab world, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa, Latin America, etc. who could find this risk capital.
I wouldn't bring up Kistler when attempting to attract investors.  Where did you get the idea that Kistler's serious investors were from the "Arab world, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa, Latin America, etc."?

Quote
We are not talking serious money here when you put it into the perspective of an 80 year old man (or close to that) and the first trip, in over a billion years of the history of life on this Earth, of humans to Mars.
See above.  May not be "serious money here when you put it into the perspective of an 80 year old man", but not all (or most?) investors will be similar to Tito.

Quote
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?
Likely something else, if history is any indication.  You conflate "Tito" with "other investors"--that's a mistake.

Where exactly do people get the idea that there are all these old bazillionares waiting for a Tito (or whoever) to come along to relieve them of their money and grant them absolution or be eternally enshrined based on a New Cause for the Betterment of Mankind?  Granted, such potential fame may appeal to the vanity of some and hold an attraction--at least if they're serious space nuts.  However, you'll likely be competing with the likes of Gates and Buffet for those philanthropic funds for projects much closer to Earth.

In short, as a thought experiment, imagine... (a) Dennis Tito and whoever on one side of the table; and (b) Bill Gates and Warren Buffet on the other side of the table.  Both sides are making a pitch for your money with the goal of bettering  mankind.  Who do you think is likely to make the more pursuasive pitch?  To whom would you most likely entrust your money?
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 10:35 AM
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?

Yes. A football stadium has potential to generate profit.

An investor by definition wouldn't give a dime for sending two people on a long uncomfortable trip.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: rklaehn on 02/27/2013 10:51 AM
The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion.

I admire the enthusiasm, but really... they only have to spend a maximum of ... that much?  Holy crud. $0.5-1.0B--even assuming those numbers are close to reality, that's... 1/6-1/3 of the annual world-wide  commercial launch market.  That's in the range of what SpaceX has spent to date.  We're talking serious money, effort and risk, with no clear return; only is not a word I would use.

To put this into perspective: larry ellison spent 400 million USD on a sailboat to win the america's trophy.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2011/03/americas-cup-san-francisco-usa-17-yacht.html?page=all (http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2011/03/americas-cup-san-francisco-usa-17-yacht.html?page=all)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: MATTBLAK on 02/27/2013 11:12 AM
And another billionaire is building a Titanic replica.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 11:21 AM
A "watch this space" article was published today in the centre-left-wing The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-millionaire-and-his-mission-to-mars-8512034.html).  It must be a slow news day today because they even ran a short editorial (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/editorial-all-aboard-for-the-red-planet-8512052.html) on the news!

In essence, the article focuses on the problems and the difficulty of raising funding; it also has some talking heads expressing their opinions and an interesting member of the IM Foundation - former NASA astronaut Dr Jonathan Clark.  The editorial is more neutral and is thoughtful and positive about what impact a successful Inspiration Mars mission might have on the collective human psyche.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 11:32 AM
Converted this into the pre-annoumcement thread.

Live coverage of the presser and post announcement reaction thread set up. Will be locked until the presser starts:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.0

This thread will be locked at that point as we all move over to the new thread.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 11:36 AM
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?

Yes. A football stadium has potential to generate profit.

An investor by definition wouldn't give a dime for sending two people on a long uncomfortable trip.

Chelsea's owner has put in about a billion into the team (remember, in football (soccer) you are not just paying millions in player contracts, but you need to buy the player from the other team for 10s of millions) and they haven't even moved out of Stamford Bridge etc. Manchester City's owner has put in about the same money to win them the championship last season - and are something like 15 points behind Manchester United this season, so he needs to spend more.

Sport, and the English Premiership makes NFL seem like Walmart, is mega money.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: DaveS on 02/27/2013 11:48 AM
- former NASA astronaut Dr Jonathan Clark.
He's not a former astronaut but a former flight surgeon. He was married to Laurel Clark, one of the STS-107 crew members.
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 11:49 AM
Sport, and the English Premiership makes NFL seem like Walmart, is mega money.

Exactly. And why? Because for every space geek there are about ten thousand football enthusiasts. Good for moving serious money by sports, bad for crowd funding Mars trips (or convincing investors/sponsor to do it).
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Atlan on 02/27/2013 12:18 PM
I said it already...we need a space sport :) 0-G Ball in an Bigelow Module or regattas on a Venus-Mars flyby trajectory :)
Title: Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
Post by: Afrocle on 02/27/2013 12:46 PM
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?

Yes. A football stadium has potential to generate profit.

An investor by definition wouldn't give a dime for sending two people on a long uncomfortable trip.

The entities that finance that $1 Billion football stadium also need a media worthy product (i.e. a sports team) to put into that football stadium to be able to generate a profit from media rights and ticket sales over a period of multiple years. A $1 Billion human Mars mission also has the "potential" to generate a profit over a period of years if it is considered to be a media worthy product or if they can sell subscriptions or tickets to exclusive access to media content.

An investor, by definition, should be capable of analyzing the investment potential of an investment and then act accordingly. Entities that invest in non profits also have sophisticated processes to figure out how they will get their returns.

This is likely not an investment opportunity, because it is being established as a non profit, but there are multiple obvious ways for Dennis Tito to make this worthwhile to others providing the money if he wants to structure this appropriately. If Tito spends $100 million of his own money, then he dramatically increases his chances that he will reach milestones that will encourage others to participate with their capital.

Remember that NASA comitted $278 million to Musk and SpaceX for COTS in 2006 after Musk had spent up to $100 million of his own money without outside investor support for a period of 4 years. A lot of people criticized NASA at this time for their "investment" in SpaceX, because there was no guarantee that NASA would see the product that they wanted from SpaceX, and NASA had no mechanism to get its money back if SpaceX were successful.

Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 01:00 PM
A paper discussing aspects of such a mission is now out.

Thanks. Unfortunate that the closest approach would happen over the night side - although in retrospect that should have been obvious given the free return restriction. Makes this proposed mission (even) less compelling.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 01:22 PM
Well, so much for that. FH capability estimates were wishful kremlinology more fitting to a NSF thread  ::)

edit: and in the end they basically say NASA should give the money because it's NASA's role. (and NACA would have given..?!)
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 01:26 PM
Well, so much for that. FH capability estimates were wishful kremlinology more fitting to a NSF thread  ::)

Yep. Even Golden Spike's approach at working out the numbers looked more serious than this.

I doubt any *single* vehicle in existence right now can provide almost 40 (km/s)^2 of C3 to 10 tonnes required for this TMI.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 01:28 PM
Well, so much for that. FH capability estimates were wishful kremlinology more fitting to a NSF thread  ::)

It still may not be hopeless.  NASA were proposing a dual-EDS double-escape burn for a while when it looked like they could never afford Ares-I AND Ares-V.  The same trick could be used here: Retain both the hab and crew vehicle upper stages and burn them both one after the other to make up the dV shortfall.

That said, I can't see this being possible without the methane-fuelled higher-impulse version of the upper stage.  We should learn more at the presser tonight (Britain time).
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 01:30 PM
Mr. Tito, ... doesn't have a rocket, spacecraft or financing for the venture, according to industry officials familiar with the project. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#)

Other than that, everything's golden.

Surprised to see how many people in this thread seem to derive pleasure from wanting the plan to fail.

Completely depends on how you interpret Feynman's remarks (http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/missions/51-l/docs/rogers-commission/Appendix-F.txt).

Quote from: Feynman
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.

You, they, and the media, can "reframe" their proposal according to the tenets of George Lakoff (http://georgelakoff.com/), but the underlying physical requirements of the reality which exists outside of our personal consciousness (just to put it in fundamental terms) will not change.

Now to throw an eyeball on that paper.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 01:33 PM
Huh.  The Mars Mission paper seems to have just disappeared.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 02/27/2013 01:34 PM
Falcon Heavy fantasy mission lol

Zurbin has done this before but this might reach people that he failed to reach.

I wish them good luck in inspiring people about Mars.



Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 01:35 PM
For me, an outstanding question is the total mission delta-v, in the same terms as on the Larson & Pranke pages I posted above.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Calphor on 02/27/2013 01:40 PM
For me, an outstanding question is the total mission delta-v, in the same terms as on the Larson & Pranke pages I posted above.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1017827#msg1017827

with only minor course correction budget (It is free-return after all).
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 01:41 PM
Could a trajectory expert open up the numbers on this page. Earth Departure V peri = 12.6km/s, is that the required dv from LV, escape + ~1.4km/s?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 01:43 PM
From the paper:
"For a C3 of 38.8 km2/sec2, the ∆V excess is 4.86 km/sec."
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 01:53 PM
Huh.  The Mars Mission paper seems to have just disappeared.

Apparently it's owned by http://spectrum.ieee.org. Someone confirm this, because if that's not the case, it'll go back on.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 02:01 PM
"Inspiration Mars will generate knowledge, experience and momentum for the next great era of space exploration"

..by publishing a paper behind paywall?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 02:02 PM
Well, so much for that. FH capability estimates were wishful kremlinology more fitting to a NSF thread  ::)

About WJS and FH, the truth will be, that after publishing the paper in the last months someone at SpaceX told Tito, that the estimates in their paper are far away from real specs. But, with a dual launch mission, it should be feasible.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 02:03 PM
..by publishing a paper behind paywall?

Please! Public announcement is today and the paper will be published at the IEEE conference. No need to write such words from your side.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: rklaehn on 02/27/2013 02:05 PM
Could a trajectory expert open up the numbers on this page. Earth Departure V peri = 12.6km/s, is that the required dv from LV, escape + 1.2km/s?

Yes, that value is the velocity you need in at perigee. The more interesting value is the C3 value (38.835 km²/s²). That is what you can usually use to look up the performance if you have the payload users guide of a launch vehicle. But the user guide for the FH is not yet publicly available.

The paper is very vague. Somebody with 100 million USD to spend should be able to get some better payload numbers from spacex than just guessing based on numbers posted on the website.

But maybe they just wanted to draw everybodys attention to the fact that there is a nice opportunity for a mission.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 02:08 PM
As I've said before, we'll know more after the presser.

That said, I, for one, would find it very funny watching the desperate back-tracking if a blank-faced Tito says (as unlikely as it seems): "Of course we've got the funding! Do you think I'd do this after the Golden Spike fiasco if I didn't already have rock-solid pledges?"  Let's face it, the guy made a fortune in finance.  People like that don't publish a prospectus that isn't likely to attract investment and isn't likely to deliver a return of some kind.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Afrocle on 02/27/2013 02:11 PM
From the paper:
"For a C3 of 38.8 km2/sec2, the ∆V excess is 4.86 km/sec."

Interesting. The NASA-JPL paper that I posted earlier suggested an 8 km/s delta V for this Mars flyby trajectory in late 2017. The 4 km/s trajectories from this NASA-JPL paper took 1,000 days versus the 500 days of the Tito Mars mission.

If delta V from LEO is only 4.86 km/s then they might be able to do this with a single Falcon Heavy or with 2 Proton rockets.

Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 02:11 PM
..by publishing a paper behind paywall?
Please! Public announcement is today and the paper will be published at the IEEE conference. No need to write such words from your side.

Yeah, sorry. Frustration got vented. The LV analysis part was so disappointing. Kissing Dragons, maybe, but that just pretty much doubled the cost.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ChileVerde on 02/27/2013 02:20 PM

Yeah, sorry. Frustration got vented. The LV analysis part was so disappointing. Kissing Dragons, maybe, but that just pretty much doubled the cost.

A word of caution: the now-disappeared document has a creation date of January 6, 2013. So even if, as seems plausible if not certain, it's the paper that is going to be presented at the IEEE conference, what I was sent may be an early draft and the final version will differ to some degree.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 02:21 PM
..by publishing a paper behind paywall?
Please! Public announcement is today and the paper will be published at the IEEE conference. No need to write such words from your side.

Yeah, sorry. Frustration got vented. The LV analysis part was so disappointing. Kissing Dragons, maybe, but that just pretty much doubled the cost.

And might double every positive feature too: payload, consumables, crew health and science capabilities.  Once again, I urge 'wait and see'.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 02/27/2013 02:42 PM
The mission in the paper is all based on life support systems.

Written by a bunch of ECLSS experts trying to squeeze everything into an unrealistic TMI throw mass.

Not just the most advanced life support systems ever but the most advanced heat shield ever.

The Dragon capsule might be big enough. I haven't really thought about it.

Pressure suits and an airlock would be good.

More testing needs to be done on the confinement. Put 2 people in a smallish sized sealed box with 500 days of provisions and one small toilet and see how it goes.  :P

That's something they'd want you to say though given some of the writers are Biosphere 2 engineers.  :-[

I guess they sort of have a point that in some ways it is easier than Apollo. Saturn V could've done this mission easily and this paper plays into the less launches of bigger rockets (larger payloads) mentality which many seem to be stuck in.

Tito is credited first in the paper. Seems the connection is there.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 02:46 PM
Not just the most advanced life support systems ever but the most advanced heat shield ever.

You read the paper? Mission can be done with state of the art life support system. Advanced will be good but not needed.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 03:11 PM
For me, an outstanding question is the total mission delta-v, in the same terms as on the Larson & Pranke pages I posted above.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1017827#msg1017827

with only minor course correction budget (It is free-return after all).

So the round trip is: 6.232 + 5.147  = 11.649 km/s?

L&P page 260, suggest that on 06-12-18, a round trip, including landing, could happen for 10.942 km/s.  Taking 879 days.

It will be interesting to read about the upcoming presser.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 03:20 PM
So the round trip is: 6.232 + 5.147  = 11.649 km/s?

No, you can't do math like that with Vinf numbers, that's the hyperbolic excess velocity. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_trajectory

In case of Mars flyby, the outbound leg Vinf will be the same for the inbound part since there is no propulsive burn done at Mars, but the vector direction will be different, hence a different heliocentric velocity and a resultant trajectory change after the flyby.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: spectre9 on 02/27/2013 03:28 PM
Not just the most advanced life support systems ever but the most advanced heat shield ever.

You read the paper? Mission can be done with state of the art life support system. Advanced will be good but not needed.

They give 5 SOA technologies.

I'd like to see the proof that all of these technologies are qualified to 500 day usage.

Potable water by reduction of CO2?

75% recovery from urine and flush water as potable?

It's SOA because Paragon says so and I'm guessing they can build it if given the funding.

Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 03:29 PM
Tito's Mars program was mentioned in the congress hearing today.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 03:37 PM
This Is How Dennis Tito Plans To Send People to Mars
http://spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1699
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Ben the Space Brit on 02/27/2013 03:43 PM
@ apace,

Looks like the people who speculated about a BEAM on the nose were right!
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Space Pete on 02/27/2013 03:59 PM
Interesting about the inflatable, that makes things more plausible from a crew habitability standpoint.

We already know BEAM will fit in a Dragon Trunk, so if they used Dragon, then they could in theory deploy BEAM out the back of the Trunk, then flip the Dragon around 180 degrees and dock to the BEAM (obviously BEAM would need a compatible docking port, as the ISS CBM couldn't be used). Plus such a proposal would only require one launch.

BEAM may turn out to have benefits far beyond a tech demo on the ISS - indeed, I think the ISS is just beginning to show one of its long-promised benefits, in that hardware developed for ISS (such as commercial crew and BEAM) can have direct application to commercial enterprises, thus saving huge development costs for such ventures.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 04:00 PM

Yeah, sorry. Frustration got vented. The LV analysis part was so disappointing. Kissing Dragons, maybe, but that just pretty much doubled the cost.

A word of caution: the now-disappeared document has a creation date of January 6, 2013. So even if, as seems plausible if not certain, it's the paper that is going to be presented at the IEEE conference, what I was sent may be an early draft and the final version will differ to some degree.

No, that's the final version of the paper--they were required to submit it to IEEE back in December. The FH payload estimate was originally intended as just a placeholder until they could get better numbers from SpaceX (since they assumed getting the numbers from SpaceX would be easy), but in the end due to the deadline they ended up having to publish that estimate instead of numbers from SpaceX.

~Jon
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 04:00 PM
Looks like the people who speculated about a BEAM on the nose were right!

Or just ad hoc illustration for the article. Even Orion doesn't have the circular solar panels anymore?

T-1 hour and I just ate too much .. must.. not..fall..asleep...zzz..ZZ.zz:Z
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:06 PM
Ok guys, let's try and increase the quality of this thread.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Blackstar on 02/27/2013 04:09 PM
Looks like the people who speculated about a BEAM on the nose were right!

Or just ad hoc illustration for the article. Even Orion doesn't have the circular solar panels anymore?


I think its inclusion is significant. However, I wouldn't over-analyze the artwork. Remember that Golden Spike released artwork that has no relationship to any actual engineering work.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 04:14 PM
@ apace,

Looks like the people who speculated about a BEAM on the nose were right!
I think I suggested it. ;) Not sure I was the first (and of course, it doesn't take much foresight to guess that as a possible solution).
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: JohnFornaro on 02/27/2013 04:15 PM
So the round trip is: 6.232 + 5.147  = 11.649 km/s?

No, you can't do math like that with Vinf numbers, that's the hyperbolic excess velocity. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_trajectory

In case of Mars flyby, the outbound leg Vinf will be the same for the inbound part since there is no propulsive burn done at Mars, but the vector direction will be different, hence a different heliocentric velocity and a resultant trajectory change after the flyby.

Thanks for the effort, but I gotta do a DBUG Salute (http://world.std.com/~eshu/dbug/apr04.pdf) on that one, since I'm not knowledgable enough to translate.

Could you put that in equivalent terms to the delta-v numbers in those L&P pages?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: muomega0 on 02/27/2013 04:19 PM
The mission in the paper is all based on life support systems.

Written by a bunch of ECLSS experts trying to squeeze everything into an unrealistic TMI throw mass.

Not just the most advanced life support systems ever but the most advanced heat shield ever.

The Dragon capsule might be big enough. I haven't really thought about it.

Pressure suits and an airlock would be good.

More testing needs to be done on the confinement. Put 2 people in a smallish sized sealed box with 500 days of provisions and one small toilet and see how it goes.  :P

That's something they'd want you to say though given some of the writers are Biosphere 2 engineers.  :-[

I guess they sort of have a point that in some ways it is easier than Apollo. Saturn V could've done this mission easily and this paper plays into the less launches of bigger rockets (larger payloads) mentality which many seem to be stuck in.

Tito is credited first in the paper. Seems the connection is there.

Bravo to the zero based approach! 100M to shake out the issues, a bargain.  the whole Mars architecture needs a relook anyway.

Way behind on this thread, but that said:

So what would gained by this approach?  what is the payoff?

tough to complain about the lack of radiation protection.... ;)

The tps can be tested without going to mars, and without using SLS, with significant on-earth testing possible.  Missing something?

A small capsule with the ECLSS could be strapped to ISS and tested there with a confined crew.  option to abort exists.  Adv/Disadv?

for radiation, a small capsule with ECLSS could be sent to L2 in case the 38 km/s is a stretch.  Option to abort exists.  Many more crew could be sent also for varying days.  Adv/disadv?

Free return trajectories...gravity assist already demonstrated? 

no rendezvous or maneuvers...gee Apollo did this in the 60s? and today?

no laser communications....slight delay in those instant messages or tweets for the social media impact...

humans or animals as a backup on this trip?

no propellant transfer to significantly increase injected mass..seems less risky than tps or ECLSS...but neglected in the study.... 

---
Hey, just realized that NASA could be providing much of this data with a focus on technology development rather than sorties....well...did sequester happen that killed all tech development once again?  Did sequester affect crew leo delivery time?  How will NASA contribute if SLS/ORION flyby is delayed?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Lar on 02/27/2013 04:21 PM
Ok guys, let's try and to increase the quality of this thread.
Fixed that for ya! Just doing my bit to increase quality!

Do we have confirmation that Mr. Tito has already cut a check for 100K to NASA and executed an SAA? To me anyway, that increases credibility of this project/foundation, a LOT.

Even if this mission doesn't come off, Mr. Tito spending 100M of his own funds on studies and research and prototyping and maybe even hardware is goodness in and of itself, properly spent, this can advance the art significantly... So that's goodness.

not much longer now I guess?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 04:25 PM
Paper public now:
http://www.inspirationmars.com/Inspiration%20Mars_Feasibility%20Analysis_IEEE.pdf
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: R7 on 02/27/2013 04:27 PM
I think its inclusion is significant. However, I wouldn't over-analyze the artwork.

Is there room in the trunk for both BEAM and consumables? (assuming some consumables, and maybe long term ECLSS would reside in the trunk, or is it all in the capsule)

Would any payload be possible to fit into the BEAM while it's still stowed?

Docking with the BEAM would require it not to tumble, release very carefully or have RCS on it?

Over-analyzing the artwork: the second stage appears to be left attached during the trip, used as rad-shield?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 04:28 PM
Would any payload be possible to fit into the BEAM while it's still stowed?

With BEAM, I point to a two launch mission with docking in LEO.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 04:29 PM
Could you put that in equivalent terms to the delta-v numbers in those L&P pages?

I'm not sure what those L&P pages you refer to are and am too lazy to go look it up, but the simplified version of delta-V requirement can be worked out from what R7 posted here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31160.msg1018097#msg1018097)

Basically, use the "V peri" number since that's where the TMI burn would take place. Subtract your vanilla LEO velocity and you got your delta-V. Vinf and Vperi are related by this equation from wikipedia:
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/d/3/5/d351b62497d0ac9ba2c8a974281ea028.png)

That works out to just shy of 5 km/s departure delta-V R7 and apace already mentioned. That should be the only deterministic delta-V requirement since the Mars flyby takes you to the return trajectory. Of course some small TCM delta-V is inevitable.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:31 PM
Ok guys, let's try and to increase the quality of this thread.
Fixed that for ya! Just doing my bit to increase quality!

;D

Ok, so now we await the webcast.

I'm on this page: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp - so hopefully that's where to be.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 04:33 PM
webcast feed is now on.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 04:36 PM
A paper discussing aspects of such a mission is now out.

Thanks. Unfortunate that the closest approach would happen over the night side - although in retrospect that should have been obvious given the free return restriction. Makes this proposed mission (even) less compelling.
Where is ChileVerde's post? Clicking on the link goes nowhere... Where is a link to the IEEE paper? I think I have access through my university, but I need to find it first.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: mr. mark on 02/27/2013 04:38 PM
bunch of people standing around at this point...
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 04:38 PM
Interesting about the inflatable, that makes things more plausible from a crew habitability standpoint.

We already know BEAM will fit in a Dragon Trunk, so if they used Dragon, then they could in theory deploy BEAM out the back of the Trunk, then flip the Dragon around 180 degrees and dock to the BEAM (obviously BEAM would need a compatible docking port, as the ISS CBM couldn't be used). ...
Or you could use a Trogdor arm! Ask Jon Goff about it. ;)
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:40 PM
So it is. Pretty awful quality outside of this size....but it'll do.

(Right, off on to the live thread - will keep this thread open until the top of the hour).
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Galactic Penguin SST on 02/27/2013 04:43 PM
Where is ChileVerde's post? Clicking on the link goes nowhere... Where is a link to the IEEE paper? I think I have access through my university, but I need to find it first.

Chris thought that the paper was copyrighted by IEEE so he took off the post as a precaution. It has since went public here: http://www.inspirationmars.com/Inspiration%20Mars_Feasibility%20Analysis_IEEE.pdf (http://www.inspirationmars.com/Inspiration%20Mars_Feasibility%20Analysis_IEEE.pdf)
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 04:45 PM
I'm on this page: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp - so hopefully that's where to be.

Seems I'm missing something from that URL as I'm getting "Error! Missing Webcast Event ID #."

Can someone post a working link?
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 04:46 PM
Where is ChileVerde's post? Clicking on the link goes nowhere... Where is a link to the IEEE paper? I think I have access through my university, but I need to find it first.

Chris thought that the paper was copyrighted by IEEE so he took off the post as a precaution. It has since went public here: http://www.inspirationmars.com/Inspiration%20Mars_Feasibility%20Analysis_IEEE.pdf (http://www.inspirationmars.com/Inspiration%20Mars_Feasibility%20Analysis_IEEE.pdf)
Thanks!
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:46 PM
I'm on this page: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp - so hopefully that's where to be.

Seems I'm missing something from that URL as I'm getting "Error! Missing Webcast Event ID #."

Can someone post a working link?

I think you had to register. That's the link I'm on, above.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: ugordan on 02/27/2013 04:47 PM
I'm on this page: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp - so hopefully that's where to be.

Seems I'm missing something from that URL as I'm getting "Error! Missing Webcast Event ID #."

Can someone post a working link?

I think you had to register. That's the link I'm on, above.

Ahh. Found the link though their homepage, though: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=92584
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 04:48 PM

They give 5 SOA technologies.

I'd like to see the proof that all of these technologies are qualified to 500 day usage.

Potable water by reduction of CO2?

Hamilton Sunstrand has a Sabatier reactor that does H + CO2 -> H2O + CH4 (with the CH4 vented), and it is on the space station today. In fact they did it semi-commercially so they're selling NASA water by the Liter. It's actually one of the bigger commercial success stories on the station to-date.

~Jon
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 04:48 PM
One observation from a quick scan of the paper: of the 24 m3 need for life support, a full 14 m3 of that is non-water food. So, it might make sense to have everything but the food in the capsule, and then the food in some sort of external container.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:48 PM
I'm on this page: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp - so hopefully that's where to be.

Seems I'm missing something from that URL as I'm getting "Error! Missing Webcast Event ID #."

Can someone post a working link?

I think you had to register. That's the link I'm on, above.

Ahh. Found the link though their homepage, though: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=92584

Super. I'll add that to the live thread.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: apace on 02/27/2013 04:49 PM
Fact Sheet:
http://www.inspirationmars.com/Inspiration%20Mars%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Robotbeat on 02/27/2013 04:49 PM

They give 5 SOA technologies.

I'd like to see the proof that all of these technologies are qualified to 500 day usage.

Potable water by reduction of CO2?

Hamilton Sunstrand has a Sabatier reactor that does H + CO2 -> H2O + CH4 (with the CH4 vented), and it is on the space station today. In fact they did it semi-commercially so they're selling NASA water by the Liter. It's actually one of the bigger commercial success stories on the station to-date.

~Jon
A sidenote, but I really wish I knew more about that reactor on ISS.
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: simonbp on 02/27/2013 04:51 PM
Also, from the fact sheet:

Quote
2018 launch opportunity coincides with the 11-year solar minimum, providing the lowest solar radiation exposure

And

Quote
The development of the education team and program is being led by Nancy Conrad, founder and CEO of the Conrad Foundation.

I'm sure Pete would approve. ;)
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: jongoff on 02/27/2013 04:53 PM
Interesting about the inflatable, that makes things more plausible from a crew habitability standpoint.

We already know BEAM will fit in a Dragon Trunk, so if they used Dragon, then they could in theory deploy BEAM out the back of the Trunk, then flip the Dragon around 180 degrees and dock to the BEAM (obviously BEAM would need a compatible docking port, as the ISS CBM couldn't be used). Plus such a proposal would only require one launch.

If we can get one of our Compactly Stowable Manipulators ("TROGDOR" Arms) light enough, that would be a way to grab and berth the BEAM module to the nose of the dragon after launch instead of doing a docking maneuver. Not to mention an arm like that might be a good way to provide some external inspection/repair capabilities telerobotically without needing to support full-blown EVAs... But to be clear, while I have friends on the mission, this is just an idea of mine, not of theirs.

~Jon
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Chris Bergin on 02/27/2013 04:57 PM
Ok, to the live thread folks....which is also the reaction thread.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.0
Title: Re: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread
Post by: Space Pete on 02/27/2013 04:57 PM
A sidenote, but I really wish I knew more about that reactor on ISS.

See here:
http://search.nasa.gov/search/search.jsp?nasaInclude=sabatier

Also note this relevant AvWeek article:
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_02_11_2013_p34-541368.xml

(Oops, sorry - posted just as thread was locked.)