NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
International Space Flight (ESA, Russia, China and others) => Chinese Launchers => Topic started by: Phillip Clark on 09/21/2011 08:30 am
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I am trying to sort out crews for the three Shenzhou flights which we have had so far and pull together some ideas for the Tiangong 1 crewing philosophy.
Shenzhou 5 is dead easy because we had Yang Liwei as the sole yuhangyuan, with Zhai Zhigang as his back-up and Nie Haishen as the support: assuming that the Chinese think of back-up and support in the same way that we do, of course!
Shenzhou 6 had the prime crew of Fei Junlong as commander, Nie Haishen as “operator”, roughly equivalent to the Russian “flight engineer”. If I have read the source data correctly Zhai Zhigang was the back-up commander paired with Wu Jie, with the support crew of Liu Buoming as commander paired with Jing Haipen.
Then along comes Shenzhou 7. Although not the Chinese designators I have Zhai Zhigang as the commander and EV1, Jing Haipen as descent module commander and Liu Buoming as EV2. There appears to have been only a back-up crew with no support crew: Wu Jie, Fei Junlong and Nie Haishen (the two members of the Shenzhou 6 prime crew being recycled – this seems strange to me). There were Chinese statements at the time of Shenzhou 7 that the three back-up men could have taken over any of the roles of the prime crew, but I am not sure that I believe this.
Am I right so far? Or is the above littered with non-factual horrors? Crew members have never been my real forte – they cannot be calculated!
Now to the Shenzhou 9 and 10 missions to Tiangong 1 (the Shenzhou 8 crew is easy, even for me!).
There are different ways that the Chinese might play this. I am assuming that we will have three-person crews (I would guess that the Shenzhou 10 might see China’s first woman in orbit). But how many crews will be formed? We could have four crews of three people, A backed up by B and C backed up by D. On the other hand we might see the idea of just three crews being formed within the training group, A, B and C.
Even with three crews we could have A backed up by B and B backed up by C: or both A and B backed up by C.
The Chinese had 14 yuhangyuans in its first selection and so I think that forming three crews would be “logical”, whatever the back-up pattern might be. I cannot see Yang Liwei flying a second time – at least this early in the programme. But I would not be surprised to see each crew having one flown yuhangyuan as commander with two rookies. That would mean recycling people from Shenzhou 6 and/or a rapid recycle from Shenzhou 7.
We have the following Wu Jie who has had back-up/support roles but not flown yet. Then we have the following from the original selection who have not had any flight assignments connected with the first three Shenzhous: Chen Quan, Deng Qingming, Li Qinglong, Liu Wang, Pan Zhanchun, Zhao Chuandong and Zhang Xiaoguan.
It will be interesting to see when the first crew names start to circulate and who might be getting a second flight (if anyone, of course).
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The Chinese had a search and rescue training session this past July, with a Shenzhou DM mockup and 2 taikonauts, involving 100 people from SAR units, 15 ground vehicles , 3 helicopters and also the Mission Control Center in Beijing. The scenario was that during a manned space rendezvous and docking mission, the crew had to do an emergency descent and therefore had landed far off the nominal landing area. It was supposed that one of the crewmembers was well and able to leave the DM by himself to mark the position with smoke, while the second taikonaut remained inside the DM because of injury.
Link to the news on CMSE website: http://www.cmse.gov.cn/news/show.php?itemid=1506 (in chinese but can be translated via google translator)
Would the fact, that there were only two taikonauts in this scenario, not be a hint for the actual crew size for at least the next manned mission (SZ-9)?
I think, it would not make much sense to have such a big exercise with only two taikonauts to be rescued, when for the real mission you would have three crewmembers?
BTW: According to the Spacefacts website, the backup commander on SZ-7 was Chen Quan, not Wu Jie: http://www.spacefacts.de/english/flights.htm
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Thank you Zero-G, I have updated the Shenzhou 7 back-up commander as Chen Quan, not Wu Jie. Do we know who were the specific back-ups for the other two roles?
The landing tests which you mention might well indicate a two-man crew for SZ 9 but I would still not be surprised not to see three people on 9 and 10, assuming that the docking of SZ 8 goes well.
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You're welcome, Phillip.
SZ-7 back-up roles: Fei Junlong was back-up for Liu Boming, and Nie Haisheng was back-up for Jing Haipen (still according to "Spacefacts" website: http://www.spacefacts.de/mission/english/shenzhou_7.htm )
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Thanks Phil for starting this discussion and also for the subsequent clarifying posts.
Firstly, it's clear there is no obvious pattern or rota to these crews, save for the fact that the three guys who were in the running for SZ-5 have all flown, so clearly stayed at the 'top of the pile' when the very different SZ-6 and SZ-7 missions were being planned.
This topic is something I've given consideration to over the last few months, so here are some random thoughts (in no particular order) which will hopefully stimulate more debate or discussion:-
-The re-cycling of the SZ-6 crew to back-up SZ-7 was very odd, added to the fact that the Commander was the only rookie. Why? Did he have a higher military rank?
-The Chinese have said that they select a number of crews, and then chose the most suitable crew, as a whole. Does the SZ-7 scenario support this notion? Probably not.
-After 13 years in the taikonaut team, how likely is it that all 14 are still eligible for selection. Could some now be medically disqualified? Yang, Fei and Zhai seem to do quite a lot of media and PR work, both inside and outside China. Are they still active and available for selection. Are they the Chinese Gagarin and Glenn? Is the pool really 9 or 10 active, plus the new group in training
-PLAAF combat pilots have to retire at 50. Is there a limit for taikonauts?
-The second group is only 5 (the two women are probably a special selection) so they must be planning that the original group will dominate the six(?) missions which will service TG-1 to TG-3 (up to 18 seats).
-A two person SZ-9 has been mentioned in some Chinese media. If this happens, then does that undermine the role of the third-seater, unless they are trained for some special role after the docking?
-It is impossible to try to figure out who will fly these missions, however I'll throw in some thoughts. If SZ-9 and SZ-10 take place c6 months apart (say April 2012 and October 2012) then they will probably have two separate pools of crews. Chen Quan would be logical choice to figure somewhere as the back-up commander of the last manned flight. But as we have said, there is no logic in any of this.
-A lot of Chinese mass media suggesting lately that a woman will fly on SZ-9. This seems unlikely to me, however if all goes to plan on SZ-8 and 9, including a woman on SZ-10 seems probable.
-The women are military transport pilots - different background and experience. The fact that they only selected two suggests they may well be being fast-tracked to occupy the third seat on a single propaganda mission. The only thing that mitigates against this theory is that this type of mission could have been flown by one of their much younger female fighter pilots, which was their original plan, but who were ultimately not considered.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=7058.75
As I said, just a few random thoughts.
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-After 13 years in the taikonaut team, how likely is it that all 14 are still eligible for selection. Could some now be medically disqualified? Yang, Fei and Zhai seem to do quite a lot of media and PR work, both inside and outside China. Are they still active and available for selection. Are they the Chinese Gagarin and Glenn? Is the pool really 9 or 10 active, plus the new group in training
Novosti kosmonavtiki cited Fei on Sept, 8th, that the Chinese astronaut group consist of 21 people (19 men and 2 women).
There are 14 people from the first group and 7 from the second.
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-A lot of Chinese mass media suggesting lately that a woman will fly on SZ-9. This seems unlikely to me, however if all goes to plan on SZ-8 and 9, including a woman on SZ-10 seems probable.
They also quoted Yang, that the decision to include a women into the crew ,will be done near to the flight date.
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Novosti kosmonavtiki cited Fei on Sept, 8th, that the Chinese astronaut group consist of 21 people (19 men and 2 women).
There are 14 people from the first group and 7 from the second.
I appreciate that Fei said this to NK, but the Chinese tend to give very little away officially, and generally just repeat what we already know. To say anything else would confirm that some are no longer active and they probably don't want to do this, and in any event Fei wouldn't be authorised to say anything which wasn't the 'party line'.
After 13 years and 3 manned flights, it seems quite likely that some (both flown and unflown) are now no longer available for selection, and are in management type roles, although technically still taikonauts, in a similar fashion to NASA management astronauts.
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-A lot of Chinese mass media suggesting lately that a woman will fly on SZ-9. This seems unlikely to me, however if all goes to plan on SZ-8 and 9, including a woman on SZ-10 seems probable.
They also quoted Yang, that the decision to include a women into the crew ,will be done near to the flight date.
Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
Again, Yang would say what he said because they will wish to keep their options open at this stage, as there are are lots of hurdles to clear with both hardware and the training of the people, before SZ-10 flies.
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Chinese sources reporting today that the female Air Force pilot, Wang Yaping will be included in the crew of SZ-10:-
http://www.worldjournal.com/view/aChinanews/15682008/article-%E5%A5%B3%E8%88%AA%E5%A4%A9%E5%93%A1%E7%8E%8B%E4%BA%9E%E5%B9%B3-%E5%85%A9%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A7%E9%A3%9B%E7%A5%9E10?instance=china_bull
Wang Yaping was first identified as a taikonaut candidate, and reported exclusively on NSF, in November 2010:-
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/11/indentity-chinese-female-taikonaut-candidate-revealed/
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Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
This could be a garbled version of the prime crew for SZ10 havng a woman assigned with the second woman in the SZ10 back-up team.
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Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
This could be a garbled version of the prime crew for SZ10 havng a woman assigned with the second woman in the SZ10 back-up team.
Absolutely! I'd guess the intention was to say something like 'two women astronauts will be involved in SZ-10' and it has been turned into something slightly different.
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I appreciate that Fei said this to NK, but the Chinese tend to give very little away officially, and generally just repeat what we already know. To say anything else would confirm that some are no longer active and they probably don't want to do this, and in any event Fei wouldn't be authorised to say anything which wasn't the 'party line'.
Strictly speaking, both Yang and Fei said almost the same – one to NK and another to a person who regularly writes for NK. They indeed were not going to reveal any new information.
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Some Chinese media are suggesting today that both women will fly in SZ-10. This seems very unlikely to me, and is probably the same type of confused interpretation and transalation we have seen before.
This could be a garbled version of the prime crew for SZ10 havng a woman assigned with the second woman in the SZ10 back-up team.
Absolutely! I'd guess the intention was to say something like 'two women astronauts will be involved in SZ-10' and it has been turned into something slightly different.
How strict are the Chinese in separation of sexes? In other words, would it be morally acceptable to the average Chinese person to have a man and a woman who are not married to live together in a space station for two weeks?
I don't know much about Chinese moral. If however there is a strict moral, that could be a reason to have a 2 men flight on SZ-9 and a two women flight on SZ-10.
Just thinking out loud here...
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If I may also do some thinking aloud too, having read dozens of both English and Chinese reports over the last few days, here is a possible scenario for the SZ-9 and SZ-10 flights.
Although there is some talk about both SZ-8 and SZ-9 being unmanned, I’d guess that the Chinese intention is that SZ-9 will be manned as long as everything goes well on SZ-8. It would be illogical to build TG-1 for manned occupancy capability and then only visit it once .
As we are only 6-8 months away from SZ-9 launch, then they must have some well advanced crewing plans – NASA and Russian crews are assigned well over a year in advance of their flights and there seems to be no reason why China should be any different, especially as they are making what are in effect ‘test flights’.
The SZ-9 and SZ-10 flights will need at least three crews (two of whom will fly), as it would seem unlikely that the crews would back-up each other, and at this stage, it would be sensible to have four crews in training, to allow for unforeseen issues over the next year.
There is also the issue of crew size, and I’d speculate that SZ-9 may well be planned to fly with a crew of two. This means that there will be eight taikonauts required to make up the four crews.
As I said previously, I doubt very much that all fourteen of the original selection are now available to fly. Yang and Zhai are ‘national treasures’ and Fei seems to be a regular ambassador for the Chinese programme (according to those who have met him, he is an impressive guy and well suited to that role). The new selection have only been training for 18 months, so it is very unlikely that any of them are included in the possible four crews I mentioned, which means that most of the original fourteen will be in those crews or are already excluded. By implication, several of those who flew in SZ-6 and SZ-7 must be in those two person teams and in line to fly again.
There has been a lot of talk about the female taikonauts flying on SZ-10, so much so that I would guess that, again, if all goes well on SZ-8 and then SZ-9, they currently plan to include a woman on SZ-10.
It may already be that Capt. Wang Yaping who’s name and photograph have been widely reported is already pencilled in for this flight.
However, despite their inclusion in the second taikonaut group, I’d speculate that the women are really a ‘special selection’ and the plan is for one of them to fly in the third seat as what is really a ‘space flight participant’ (although the Chinese won’t portray it that way). The Russians have shown that 12 months is enough to train someone for that type of role. In other words, they are on a different training sequence to core crews and the five men in the second group. So the women will continue to train for a ‘third seat’ ride on SZ-10 over the next 6-8 months, and then after SZ-9 has flown successfully, if all is still on track, they will be attached to the existing crew pairs to form prime and back-up crews for SZ-10 and will have a 6 month or so final training period, which is broadly similar to the Soyuz SFP flights.
So, my guess is that the crewing pattern will be:-
SZ-9 Prime - Two man crew 1, Back-up Two man crew 2
SZ-10 Prime – Two man crew 2 + Wang Yaping, Back-up Two man crew 3 + unknown woman
Turing to the moral question of mixed crews, I don’t know that Chinese attitudes are either, but flying two women on SZ-10 after only two years of training looks like a very unlikely option when the Chinese seem very keen to minimise risk and maximise safety.
Discuss!!
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I'd guess the Chinese think of two different scenarios for SZ-9 and SZ-10. In the first case, docking and transfer would be enough to claim success so the SZ-9 visit may be rather short. Then I'd plan a longer stay for SZ-10. This logic dictates two pairs of crews with different scope of training.
It is reasonable to think that SZ-9 needs only two crewmembers while SZ-10 may be planned for three. But we don't know if TG-1 may support many man-days; so it may turn the opposite way: three-person short visit and two-person longer stay.
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...If however there is a strict moral, that could be a reason to have a 2 men flight on SZ-9 and a two women flight on SZ-10.
Just thinking out loud here...
This would be one "space-first" for China: First (multi-seat) all-female crew.
Soviets tried to do it with Savitskaya-Ivanova-Dobrokvashina in Salyut 7.
And maybe SZ-10 could be a repeat of SZ-09 with two women, and SZ-11 a three-men long duration flight...
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...If however there is a strict moral, that could be a reason to have a 2 men flight on SZ-9 and a two women flight on SZ-10.
Just thinking out loud here...
This would be one "space-first" for China: First (multi-seat) all-female crew.
Soviets tried to do it with Savitskaya-Ivanova-Dobrokvashina in Salyut 7.
And maybe SZ-10 could be a repeat of SZ-09 with two women, and SZ-11 a three-men long duration flight...
Whilst this would be an appealing idea, I don't think the Chinese are interested in 'firsts' or records, and as I definitiely sense that the shortened training window for the women means they will probably not be as fully trained to actually FLY Shenzhou as the veteran men, it would be a unacceptably risky mission.
There is currently no mention of SZ-11, although if they succeed in flying SZ-9 and SZ-10 in 2012, there may be a window for another flight in 2013, before TG-1 is de-orbited. Will depend on the hardware and what can be achieved. So far, the Chinese have shown no interest in repeating things they have already done - each manned flight represents significant steps forward.
Igor - you may be right that SZ-9 and SZ-10 will have very different objectives, which require different skills, and so the crews may develop independently.
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I'd guess the Chinese think of two different scenarios for SZ-9 and SZ-10. In the first case, docking and transfer would be enough to claim success so the SZ-9 visit may be rather short. Then I'd plan a longer stay for SZ-10. This logic dictates two pairs of crews with different scope of training.
It is reasonable to think that SZ-9 needs only two crewmembers while SZ-10 may be planned for three. But we don't know if TG-1 may support many man-days; so it may turn the opposite way: three-person short visit and two-person longer stay.
Excellent thinking, Igor!
Of course, the Shenzhou will have to carry the food and water for the crews since there is no cargo freighter capability. So this on its own suggests fairly short missions. Plus the size of Tiangong means that there is less living space than on either the DOS or Almaz stations (Skylab using a modified S-IVB was like a giant, relatively empty empty can!).
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May I point out to this picture? IT clearly states that SZ-9 will be manned contingent to the results of SZ-8.
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May I point out to this picture? IT clearly states that SZ-9 will be manned contingent to the results of SZ-8.
Yes, I don't think anyone is arguing that point!
It seems pretty clear that they are just hedging their bets. The Chinese have shown themselves to be very cautious and careful, and not wishing to over-promise. But if the recently annouced programme for SZ-8 goes off without a hitch, then SZ-9 will be manned. It's just not their style to say that unconditionally, until SZ-8 is in the bag.
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I think I have to agree with most things tonyq and Liss bring up. Making SZ-9 a 2 men flight and SZ-10 a 2 men + 1 woman flight. All provided SZ-8 doesn't encounter serious problems.
If SZ-8 doesn't achieve its objectives, they could decide to shift the manned TG-1 missions to the right and launch SZ-9 unmanned with SZ-10 and 11 manned. As tony points out, there is enough time. Or they could add the SZ-9 objectives to SZ-10 and only fly 1 manned mission to TG-1. In any case, I think the Chinese have a very specific set of objectives to achieve using TG-1 before continuing to TG-2.
One thing about mission time. What do we know about the resources already on board TG-1? Are there any food/water/air supplies available? If so, how many man-days seems plausible?
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I think I have to agree with most things tonyq and Liss bring up. Making SZ-9 a 2 men flight and SZ-10 a 2 men + 1 woman flight. All provided SZ-8 doesn't encounter serious problems.
If SZ-8 doesn't achieve its objectives, they could decide to shift the manned TG-1 missions to the right and launch SZ-9 unmanned with SZ-10 and 11 manned. As tony points out, there is enough time. Or they could add the SZ-9 objectives to SZ-10 and only fly 1 manned mission to TG-1. In any case, I think the Chinese have a very specific set of objectives to achieve using TG-1 before continuing to TG-2.
One thing about mission time. What do we know about the resources already on board TG-1? Are there any food/water/air supplies available? If so, how many man-days seems plausible?
It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
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It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
That's not the current plan. AIUI, SZ-10 will be the last flight to TG-1. After that, TG-2 should be launched and Shenzhou 11 to 14 will fly to Tiangong-2, which will be more like a space lab where some actual research work will take place (TG-1 is mostly just a test object for docking procedures).
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It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
That's not the current plan. AIUI, SZ-10 will be the last flight to TG-1. After that, TG-2 should be launched and Shenzhou 11 to 14 will fly to Tiangong-2, which will be more like a space lab where some actual research work will take place (TG-1 is mostly just a test object for docking procedures).
From what I red Tiangong-2 was to test earth observation and new technologies (the robotic arm was specifically named), and Tiangong-3 was to test the regenerative ECLSS. Visited Shenzhou 11-14 in 2013-2015, according to plan.
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It is not clear whether a Shenzhou 11 will be available to support Tiangong 1. It might be being constructed on a schedule to be the first visitor to Tiangong 2.
That's not the current plan. AIUI, SZ-10 will be the last flight to TG-1. After that, TG-2 should be launched and Shenzhou 11 to 14 will fly to Tiangong-2, which will be more like a space lab where some actual research work will take place (TG-1 is mostly just a test object for docking procedures).
I was just being cautious! I have never seen the Chinese even hint that Shenzhou 11 would be available for a mission to Tiangong 1 and so I have always believed that it would be the first visit to Tiangong 2.
The Chinese do not have a long production line of Shenzhou spacecraft: although now apparently of a standard design, they are manufactured to order for specific missions, without any being available as "spares" or back-ups.
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This link which Rui kindly added to the main SZ-8 thread contains an interesting quote from Yang Lewei about future crewing:-
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sci/2011-10/30/c_131220639.htm
"However, for the first batch of 14 Chinese astronauts, whose average age is 47, some of them might not have the chance to fly into space due to the limited number of manned space flights, though all of them are capable of the missions, the 46-year-old astronaut said."
This is probably the clearest hint yet that some to the first Chinese group will never fly.
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I winder whether the Chinese were expecting a higher launch rate when the first group of candidates was selected?
If this is correct, was the programme's slow down for fnancial or technical reasons?
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I winder whether the Chinese were expecting a higher launch rate when the first group of candidates was selected?
If this is correct, was the programme's slow down for fnancial or technical reasons?
With hindsight, it certainly looks that way. Back in 1998, if they'd known that by 2011, only six men would have flown, they surely wouldn't have selected so many............
The fact that they only selected 5 men in the second group (the 2 women are a special selection) suggests they may be trying to balance supply and demand better balanced for the next 5-10 years.
I wonder if, once they have completed the SZ-8 to 10 flights and proven docking capability, they will begin to select the non-pilots Yang mentions?
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One thing about mission time. What do we know about the resources already on board TG-1? Are there any food/water/air supplies available? If so, how many man-days seems plausible?
I have read of 20 days' resource of piloted flight of TG-1. Don't know if this relates to three-person crew.
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Lots of re-cycled news stories about today, in anticipation of the SZ-8 launch, but this one says, for the first time, that a training group of nine taikonauts has been selected to prepare for the two docking missions in 2012.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-10/31/c_131222216.htm
The group is 7 men from the first group, and the 2 women from the second group. This seems to be broadly in line with what we had suggested above, although there is no indication if the men include any of the veterans.
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This latest information on the existence of a 9 person training group for the SZ-9 and SZ-10 flights provides opportunity to revisit Phil's original question about the possible future crewing scenarios.
The 7 men included in the training group could all be unflown, as there are 8 members of the original selection who are yet to make a spaceflight. However, bearing in mind the complexity of the proposed missions and the possibilty (even liklihood) that not all 14 are still available for selection, it seems that the 7 will include a mix of both flown and unflown candidates.
The 2 women appear to have been 'parachuted' into this training group ahead of their male colleagues from the second selection, based on gender, and it is pretty clear that if all goes to plan with SZ-8, one of them is going to fly next year, probably on SZ-10.
A training group of 9 would of course neatly provide 3 x 3-person crews, and it may well be the Chinese plan to fly 3 men on SZ-9 and 2 men/1 woman on SZ-10. This would be very neat and tidy, but Chinese crewing policy and patterns in the past are unclear, so they could equally produce a 2-person crew for SZ-9, with back-ups, and leave 5 of the training groups not directly involved in that flight, with the crews being totally re-configured for SZ-10!
However, bearing in mind that the Chinese clearly have very specific objectives for their programme over the next 12 months (and beyond) it seems likely that the crewing aspects will be equally well planned and considered, and whilst we cannot be sure of their plans, the most likely and logical scenario is that the 9 person training group is, in reality, already 3 x 3 person crews, one of 3 men and two of 2 men and 1 woman. Soyuz and Shuttle crews are/were generally assigned to specific flight well over 12 months before the planned launch. There is no reason to believe the Chinese are any different, now that flights are becoming more complex and presumably training highly mission specific, so it is likely that prime/back-up assignments already exist.
If this supposition is correct, and assuming that 3 men fly on SZ-9, it will be interesting to see if one of the women appears in the back-up crew for that flight, or is kept in the background until their intended flight on SZ-10?
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This web has a page ( updated 22 October 2011) devoted to the 1998 Astronaut Group with his status. YANG Liwei is retired, and FEI Junlong is the “Commander of the Astronaut Corps”.
http://www.sinodefence.com/space/human-spaceflight/astronaut-1998.asp (http://www.sinodefence.com/space/human-spaceflight/astronaut-1998.asp)
More speculation... A few weeks ago I remember that only ZHAO Chuandong and PAN Zhanchun, of the unflown astronauts, were listed, so I thought (maybe) they were on training for the next mission… Unless it is in Chinese language, apparently the names do not follow any alphabetical order.
This web is also reporting a 2010 Group of 5 male astronauts and 2 female as it’s known, but there’s no webpage for them. :( >:(
“The five male candidates were all jet fighter pilots, while the two female candidates were transport aircraft pilots. Between them they shared an average flying time of 1,270.7 hours.”
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Apparently, two female Taikonauts are INDEED among a small group of candidates selected to become the first crew to visit China's first space station/laboratory.
Whether there will be a coed (mixed gender)crew; I do not know.
But the Chinese space agency has gone out of its way to announce that BOTH female Taikonaut candidates are "married".
The clear implication of that I see is?
Is that if one of these women is selected to join a male taikonaut on board the orbiting Chinese space station/lab the "authorities" will not tolerate any....unofficial 'intimate' experiments in zero-g, if you know what I mean.
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Apparently, two female Taikonauts are INDEED among a small group of candidates selected to become the first crew to visit China's first space station/laboratory.
Whether there will be a coed (mixed gender)crew; I do not know.
But the Chinese space agency has gone out of its way to announce that BOTH female Taikonaut candidates are "married".
The clear implication of that I see is?
Is that if one of these women is selected to join a male taikonaut on board the orbiting Chinese space station/lab the "authorities" will not tolerate any....unofficial 'intimate' experiments in zero-g, if you know what I mean.
Svetlana Savitskaya was still married on her second trip into orbit and that didn't stop the rumours of a "space first" happening during her time on Salyut 7.
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Rumours will be rumours and humans will be humans.
I am convinced that no such 'experiment' is planned by the Chinese management, and I am convinced that any future crewmembers (male and female) are professionals that have other things on their minds.
Having said that, I am also quite convinced that there will be a crowd again, both in China and outside of it, that is convinced that such 'experiments' ARE happening with full knowledge of mission management. It's silly really. But such are humans that smell a saucy story.
There have been quite a few mixed crews on ISS, shuttle and Soyuz in the past 10 years, and nobody cared much about it. Why? Because these missions are only followed by us, the space community. The first Chinese manned mission to TianGong-1 will receive much more media attention again from 'other' media, thus the stories will pop-up again.
This is all my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong, and there will be no 'sex in space' stories going on during the TG-1 manned missions.
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This is all my opinion. Let's hope I'm wrong, and there will be no 'sex in space' stories going on during the TG-1 manned missions.
Just out of pure interest and please delete if inappropriate (or refer me to the thread where it is discussed): Has "this" actually ever happened? Or is it just tabloids speculating?
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This looks like an interesting video and capable of giving some light about the crews: China trains crew for manned space (http://www.china.org.cn/video/2011-11/10/content_23873263.htm).
"With the crew already chosen and training underway, they will take control of the rendezvous and docking mission between the two spacecraft. Due to take place next year, the success of the project literally lies in the hands of the astronauts."
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This looks like an interesting video and capable of giving some light about the crews: China trains crew for manned space (http://www.china.org.cn/video/2011-11/10/content_23873263.htm).
"With the crew already chosen and training underway, they will take control of the rendezvous and docking mission between the two spacecraft. Due to take place next year, the success of the project literally lies in the hands of the astronauts."
Hmm....an interesting find Rui. But the three guys we see are all veterans and they are each wearing the patch of their previous mission. Is that a Chinese 'tradition' that flown taikonauts always wear their old patches, or are those simply old archive clips made before the SZ-6 and 7 missions.
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Prime & Backup crews of SZ-6 & 7
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This looks like an interesting video and capable of giving some light about the crews: China trains crew for manned space (http://www.china.org.cn/video/2011-11/10/content_23873263.htm).
"With the crew already chosen and training underway, they will take control of the rendezvous and docking mission between the two spacecraft. Due to take place next year, the success of the project literally lies in the hands of the astronauts."
Hmm....an interesting find Rui. But the three guys we see are all veterans and they are each wearing the patch of their previous mission. Is that a Chinese 'tradition' that flown taikonauts always wear their old patches, or are those simply old archive clips made before the SZ-6 and 7 missions.
We usually see American astronauts with their mission patches of their suits. But the important thing in the article is the facto that it says that the crew is already chosen. Also, SZ-6 and SZ-7 are now too far in time. Is it possible to already have rendezvous and docking simulators at that time so «many» years before the docking systems were ready for the first flight?
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We usually see American astronauts with their mission patches of their suits. But the important thing in the article is the facto that it says that the crew is already chosen. Also, SZ-6 and SZ-7 are now too far in time. Is it possible to already have rendezvous and docking simulators at that time so «many» years before the docking systems were ready for the first flight?
I suggested a few days ago (Message #31) that the SZ-9 and SZ-10 crews would already have been selected, as these are complex missions and the first one is only a few months away, so it is good to get that speculation confirmed.
You make a very good point about the clips being filmed in what seems to be a docking simulator, though I would still be amazed if the SZ-6 and SZ-7 crews fly again. I'd guess they have just used known taikonauts for this TV clip, as they don't want to reveal the real crews, especially the women, just yet.
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We usually see American astronauts with their mission patches of their suits. But the important thing in the article is the facto that it says that the crew is already chosen. Also, SZ-6 and SZ-7 are now too far in time. Is it possible to already have rendezvous and docking simulators at that time so «many» years before the docking systems were ready for the first flight?
I suggested a few days ago (Message #31) that the SZ-9 and SZ-10 crews would already have been selected, as these are complex missions and the first one is only a few months away, so it is good to get that speculation confirmed.
You make a very good point about the clips being filmed in what seems to be a docking simulator, though I would still be amazed if the SZ-6 and SZ-7 crews fly again. I'd guess they have just used known taikonauts for this TV clip, as they don't want to reveal the real crews, especially the women, just yet.
Yes, I think you are right or maybe we will see some of the taikonauts of the SZ-6 aor SZ-7 on the next missions.
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Svetlana Savitskaya was still married on her second trip into orbit and that didn't stop the rumours of a "space first" happening during her time on Salyut 7.
You may not know well this person, now a Duma member from the Communist Party and well-known critic of the regime. In her speeches and questions, Savitskaya follows political, not technical way of thinking.
And back in 1980s, there was a well-known anecdote on the topic. Aleksandr Serebrov, her teammate for first flight, was asked this question. 'Svetlana Savitskaya is not a woman, he said, she is a Party Comrade'.
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Here is all 14 taikonauts group photo...
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I know that at least one well-known researcher and 'space sleuth' has shown that photo to Yang and Fei at international events where they have appeared, and tried to get them to identify each of the unflown guys.
Whilst they we happy to identify themselves and the 'known unflowns', such as Chen and Li, they pretended to photo was not clear enough to tell who was who among the other five.
It's clear that they are well tutored in what is public information, and what is still secret!
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Interesting CCTV report from a couple of days ago which says that the crews for both SZ-9 and SZ-10 will be settled by 'Spring Festival, aka Chinese New Year (23rd January).
http://video.sina.com.cn/p/news/c/v/2011-11-14/220361560563.html
I wonder if that means that will be 'settled' internally, or they mean that is when they will be announced to the outside world? If it is the former, then it is fairly pointless telling us this, so my sense is that it means the latter.
If they are planning to launch in March, then naming the crews 4 or 6 weeks before, seems to make sense, bearing in mind the general increase in openness and confidence, which we have seen since SZ-7.
This joint announcement would also fit with my earlier conjecture that the crewing of these two missions would effectively be a joint enterprise, with, possibly, the B/U crew for SZ-9 also being the prime crew for SZ-10, and the support crew for SZ-9 being the B/U crew for SZ-10.
PS - Edited to add that I am assuming that after what seems to have been very successful SZ-8, they will soon confirm that SZ-9 will fly with a crew, and cease this cautionary 'at least one 2012 flight will be manned' business.
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With the SZ-9 launch apparently only 2-3 weeks away, it seems to be a good time to reactivate this thread and see if we can figure out how the SZ-9 crewing might unfold.
In December 2011, Chinese media announced that an advance training Group of nine taikonauts, seven men and two women, were preparing to fly the SZ-9 and SZ-10 missions. It mentioned that the men included some 'experienced taikonauts'.
It is unclear if 'experienced' just means men who have flown in space before, or includes those who have trained as back-ups on the earlier flights. The only two who fit this criteria are Wu Jie and Chen Quan.
Yang Liwei (China's Gagarin) is retired, Zhai Zhigang (as the Chinese Leonov) may be also, and Fei Junlong seems to undertake a lot of media and other work, so may be inactive too. Li Qinglong has been interviewed recently in the Chinese media and described as an ex-taikonaut, so seems to be retired. If this is on account of age, then possibly Wu Jie is retired too, as they are the oldest of the original 14. This may well reduce the available pool to just nine, from the original fourteen.
There have been some unofficial suggestions from China that the crew of SZ-6 (Fei and Nie) should not be ruled out as being in the training group, simply because they are now Generals; Nie seems to be more likely for the reasons mentioned above. Either of the remaining two guys from SZ-7 (Liu and Jing) could be in contention for back to back flights too.
So the advanced group of seven must be mostly comprised from the five guys from the 1998 group, who have never been assigned to a mission before, with the balance coming from some of those mentioned above as being available for a second flight.
There is no pattern to Chinese crewing, so although, in other programmes, Chen Quan ought to be considered a 'shoe in', as the back-up commander of the previous flight, we cannot make that assumption.
Turning to the women, this is a straight choice between Wang Yaping and Liu Yang, who were both selected in 2010, and so have had only two years training. Last year, when the 'group of nine' was announced, the women were in contention for SZ-10, so something has happened to bring the flight forward. Is the inclusion of a woman on SZ-9 politically driven, or are they genuinely best qualified for the demands of the mission?
For many months, media coverage in China seemed to focus exclusively on Wang, and seemed to suggest that she had already been selected for the mission. There was virtually nothing on the web about Liu.
There has been very little in the official Chinese media in the last three months about Wang or Liu. An article about Wang appeared briefly on the website of her home town media, about three weeks ago. This was an unofficial interview with her father, who suggested that she was buckling under the weight of media attentions and expectations; the article was very quickly removed.
There have been quite a number of postings about Liu on various forums in her home province, but these just say she is in the taikonaut team, and in contention for the flight. Interestingly, some posters, in responding to the positive messages, and who appear to know her personal background, say that she was the 'political officer' for her old aviation unit, and is related, through marriage, to a very senior Air Force officer, and suggesting that such connections might help her cause.
Clearly we have little concrete to go on. Discuss!!
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Turning to the women, this is a straight choice between Wang Yaping and Liu Yang, who were both selected in 2010, and so have had only two years training. Last year, when the 'group of nine' was announced, the women were in contention for SZ-10, so something has happened to bring the flight forward. Is the inclusion of a woman on SZ-9 politically driven, or are they genuinely best qualified for the demands of the mission?
Originally, there were plans to maybe have a second unmanned docking mission, depending on the results and success of the first one. These two unmanned missions would have been SZ-8 and SZ-9. So, SZ-10 would have been the first crewed docking mission.
It was only a few months ago, after evaluating the results of SZ-8, when it was decided to move the manned mission forward to SZ-9.
So, the reason to bring the flight of the first Chinese woman forward might simply be because the next crewed flight is brought forward, and one option may always have been to have a woman aboard the next flight anyway.
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Clearly we have little concrete to go on. Discuss!!
Let's play the game:
WU Jie - CDR
LIU Yang - Operator 1
PAN Zhanchun - Operator 2
I bet for Wu as commander (was CDR backup on SZ6). Liu instead of Wang... maybe the Chinese are talking of Wang to isolate the other woman from the press... and Pan as third crewmember for no special reason ??? his name sounds good.
On the backup crew:
CHEN Quan - CDR
WANG Yaping - Operator 1
ZHAO Chuandong - Operator 2
Chen was backup CDR for SZ-7. Zhao for the same reason than Pan.
And the support crew:
LIU Wang
ZHANG Xiaoguang
DENG Qingming
In unknown positions...
I think that the SZ-10 crew would have Chen as CDR (with probably Wu as backup) and the other 4 would be the SZ9 support crew plus the backup Operator 2.
Thoughts?
Do you wanna play?
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There is not sure that Wu Jie is still an active taikonaut and I would prefer to have a veteran as the Commander (someone gave me a hint that the Commander could be Nie Haisheng on his second flight).
I still bet on Wang Yaping for the woman's place because of her background and because of the military connections of Liu Yang's family.
The third seat would go to Chen Quan having been backup CDR for SZ-7.
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... (someone gave me a hint that the Commander could be Nie Haisheng on his second flight).
Posted by TonyQ
There have been some unofficial suggestions from China that the crew of SZ-6 (Fei and Nie) should not be ruled out as being in the training group, simply because they are now Generals
Read on this web:
http://www.dragoninspace.com/astronaut/wu-jie.aspx (http://www.dragoninspace.com/astronaut/wu-jie.aspx)
"Wu Jie completed his training in late 1997 and was certified as a Soyuz Commander, with speciality in rendezvous and docking."
Liu Buoming was specialized in EVA and was backup on SZ7
Wu, if not retired, seems to me the best for CDR
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OK here we go.
This is an important, difficult and complex mission, which has to succeed to keep their long term plans on track. So it makes sense to use a veteran taikonaut in the Commander role. Yang, Fei and Zhai seem to no longer be eligible, which leaves Nie Haisheng, Liu Buoming and Jing Haipen. Back to back flights seem unlikely for the last two, so Nie Haisheng is my choice for Commander.
I have seen Li Qinglong described as a former astronaut and I suspect that his contemporary, Wu Jie, might be too. In any event, it is 7 years since he was back-up on SZ-6 and he didn't figure at all in SZ-7, so I suspect he is out of the picture. This means that Chen Quan as a back-up on SZ-7 should be in the running and I would see him as Operator 1.
The female seat is very difficult to call, as we have little to go except a few rumours on forums and biased reporting in their home towns. However, I think that Rui is right, that Wang Yaping is a safer bet for the programme. She has a perfect, humble, family background, whilst Liu seems to have some military connections which might be unhelpful. Wang also looks good, and will be an excellent PR asset, post flight.
Prime
Commander - Nie Haisheng
Operator 1 - Chen Quan
Operator 2 - Wang Yaping
Back-up
Commander - Liu Buoming
Operator 1 - Liu Wang
Operator 2 - Liu Yang
(nice symmetry in the names!!)
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Liu Buoming was specialized in EVA and was backup on SZ7
Liu Buoming was prime crew on SZ-7. He was backup on SZ-6.
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Liu Buoming was prime crew on SZ-7. He was backup on SZ-6.
True. My mistake-
There have been quite a number of postings about Liu ...
... say that she was the 'political officer' for her old aviation unit, and is related, through marriage, to a very senior Air Force officer, and suggesting that such connections might help her cause.
Maybe Liu Yang will fly for the benefit of the Party :P
Back-up
Commander - Liu Buoming
Operator 1 - Liu Wang
Operator 2 - Liu Yang
(nice symmetry in the names!!)
Yeah like the Williams in the US and the Volkov's in the USSR/Russia :)
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This reasonably credible website now reporting that Wang Yaping is assigned to the prime crew:-
http://www.dragoninspace.com/astronaut/wang-yaping.aspx
No idea on their source. Some French language information service also reporting the same, but they may have sourced their information from this same link
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Prime
Commander - Nie Haisheng
Operator 1 - Chen Quan
Operator 2 - Wang Yaping
Back-up
Commander - Liu Buoming
Operator 1 - Liu Wang
Operator 2 - Liu Yang
(nice symmetry in the names!!)
So I got two out of three in each crew - In the words of Meatloaf "Two out of three ain't bad."
Ofcourse, the jury is still out on whether I have the crews the correct way round, but can anyone realistically see Major-General Nie Haisheng being in a back-up role?
Leading this first docking mission is very prestigous assignment, and I would bet that he has gone looking for this flight, as his astronaut swansong. Having his SZ-6 commander as the current leader of the taikonaut team won't have harmed his position.
So despite what some other sources are saying, I believe Nie, Zhang and Wang will fly the mission!
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A few points:
1. The unknown crew in Nie's team is now identified as Zhang Xiao-guang, not Chen Quan
2. The commander of the other team is Jing Hai-peng, not Liu Bo-ming
3. Against all odds, all signs indicate that Jing Hai-peng/Liu Wang/Liu Yang team may be the prime crew, though this still needs further confirmation
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Going back to the original premise of this thread, and now having the benefit of seeing how SZ-9 crewing has panned out, I'll put forward some thoughts about Chinese crewing, generally, since 2003.
It would seem that after each earlier flight, (SZ-5,6 and 7) the mission specific team was, dissolved, and a new team put together for the objectives of the next mission. Being a back-up didn’t automatically make a taikonaut a ‘shoe in’ for the next mission – they had to qualify, and be selected again, perhaps against different criteria and mission requirements.
This would explain how Fei Junlong appeared from nowhere to command SZ-6; how Wu Jie vanished after SZ-6; how the SZ-6 crew emerged as back-ups on SZ-7; how Jing has got back to back flights, ahead of both unflowns, and flowns, who have been waiting longer.
This would help explain why there was no apparent crewing pattern or sequence on the earlier flights.
However, SZ-9 and SZ-10 ought to be different. The nine person training group appears to have been created, and resourced, to cover both missions, so it seems 99% sure that the SZ-10 crew will be drawn from the six left behind.
Presumably after SZ-10, the group will be dissolved and a new group formed for SZ-11 and SZ-12, and beyond.
I'd guess that if it weren’t for the ‘female’ angle, it would be extremely likely that the back-up crew would just move up to fly SZ-10. However, we have no way of knowing exactly what the mission planners have in mind, at this stage.
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I have been working on an article for the upcoming Shenzhou 10 mission and I included a bit of speculation on the crew composition. As one of my sources for information or should that be inspiration I reads through this old thread.
On Phil Clark’s opening message he names Zhai Zhigang and Wu Je as the first back-ups to Shenzhou 6 and Liu Boming and Jing Haipeng as the second back-up crew. This is certainly the order shown on the Spacefacts website http://www.spacefacts.de/english/flights.htm but with my pedantic or should that be obsessional nature I checked another source and found http://dragoninspace.com/shenzhou/shenzhou6.aspx which shows the crews the other way around.
More digging followed. Praxis Manned Spaceflight Log 1961-2006 ©2007 by Tim Furniss and David J Shayler with Michael D Shayler, Wikipedia, Encyclopedia Astronautica and worldspaceflight.com all showed the Liu and Jing teaming as the first back-ups. However in support of Spacefacts a Russian website, astronaut.ru shows Zhai and Wu as the first back-ups.
A little more digging showed Xinhua listing the astronauts in the order of Fei, Nie, Liu, Jing, Zhai and Wu but without a definite statement of who was what (except for who actually flew the mission).
Also interesting is that I cannot find an official or semi-official mention that any of the astronauts for Shenzhou 6 were the commander of a particular team. The use of commander or leader only seems to come into play for the three person crews. Xinhua describes Zhai, Chen Quan, Jing and Nie as commanders or leaders of their crews for Shenzhou 7 and 9 and the China Manned Space Engineering Office only names Zhai as a commander for Shenzhou 7.
I cannot help but wonder if [for Shenzhou 6] none of the three crews had a designated commander. Does anyone out there have any thoughts or provide an official confirmation of how the crews for Shenzhou 6 should be listed.
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As it is now 7.5 years since SZ-6 flew, it is difficult to find contempory original, or source, information about the the role descriptions of the crew members, both prime and back-up. However, I don't think there was much doubt, at the time, that Fei Junlong was presented as being the Commander, and that Zhai was the back-up Commander. I have seen photos of both these crews in the SZ simulator with the respective commanders in the 'middle' seat, which the three-person flights have now confirmed as being the commander's. (the third seat location was occupied with equipment).
You are correct, that some sources now quote the back-up crews as the other way round. I can't offer any explanation for this, but again, at the time, I am pretty sure that the Zhai/Wu team were the back-ups. Certainly, there are many photos of them around, whilst I don't recall seeing any of Lui/Jing training as a two-person team.
I'm no expert on military etiquette, but would have thought it very unlikely that there wouldn't have been a designated commander of such an important mission.
BTW, I understand, from a source that has had official contact with the Chinese Astronaut Centre, that all SZ crews must now include an experienced crew-member. With their low rate of flights, they just about have an adequate pool of veterans to do this, but it obviously makes it tough for guys like Wu and Chen to get back into the roster, especially when the women are being given priority.
I suspect that quite a few of the 1998 guys will never fly, and some may already be retired, but we'll leave that debate for another time.
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Thanks for the input Tony. Much appreciated. What you remember is very useful and until I find anything to suggest otherwise I will go with your memory and take Zhai and Wu as the first back-up crew for Shenzhou 6.
I did find some contemporary reports on Xinhua (and from one other source which stupidly I forgot to note and now cannot remember) but nothing said anybody was a commander/leader unlike for Shenzhou 7 and 9 where the commander is stated several/many times. However, I am sure you are correct that the Shenzhou 6 crews had a nominated commander for each team.
With regard to the 1998 selection we have had seven flown out of fourteen. If we presume one more on Shenzhou 10 then we will still have six unflown. The next flights will be to Tiangong 2 in probably 2016 and 2017. The known years’ of birth are in the range 1962 to 1969 (three are not known but are unlikely to be much different). As they would be aged in their late 40’s to early/mid 50’s by the time of Tiangong 2 it seems unlikely that all the 1998 selection will make it into space.
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The next flights will be to Tiangong 2 in probably 2016 and 2017.
Isn't Tiangong 2 supposed to be going up next year, making flights likely in 2015?
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The next flights will be to Tiangong 2 in probably 2016 and 2017.
Isn't Tiangong 2 supposed to be going up next year, making flights likely in 2015?
Recent reports from China indicate that the success of TG-1/SZ-9 will result in the original TG-2 step in their plans being skipped, and they will proceed to the more complex TG-3 (now called TG-2). This will be launched NET 2015, with the liklihood that the next manned missions will only take place in late 2015 or 2016.
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Sorry, I should have explained my “probably 2016 and 2017” on my previous post. I was aware of the cancellation of TG-2 in favour of TG-3 and the reports of the 2015-2016 timescale but experience suggests this timescale will move backwards. The EVA flight was moved back a year from 2007 to 2008 and TG-1 was originally due to launch in 2010 but slowly moved back by about a year.
Zhou Jianping, a leading spacecraft designer, said last month that TG-2 is expected to be launched in two years. There will also be some significant modifications from TG-1. I think there will probably be some delays and I do not expect another manned flight until at least 2016 (I do hope I am wrong and it is earlier).