That would normally be the case, but there is so much moisture around that it'll likely be fairly cloudy much of the day with generic showers in the morning too.
On the plus side - not as much worry about extreme heat and sunburn issues!
Good news and bad news...Will be interesting to see what they get at the end of the week, but I'll take weather uncertainty over hardware uncertainty.
Basing this off experience - but FL thunderstorms normally don't get a cranking until 4-5 pm. I think 11 am by that time the sea-breeze will be pushing any thunderstorms inland.
Orbiter
Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
I've heard through an inside rumor that it likely will be no faster than a three day delay if there is any kind of last minute scrub for any reason. The theory being that traffic around the launch attempt will be so bad that it will take extreme amounts of time for workers to return home and come back for their next shift. I've got reservations through Tuesday.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT TUESDAY JULY 05 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT120 BKN250 7 21006P10
TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW040 7 34006P09
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 29005P08
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 7 19008P12
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SCT200 7 15006P09
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW SKC 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 06/1200Z
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
HOETH/WILEY/HOOD
Launch weather forecast is out on L2, but they're also doing the morning weather briefing...today's look at Friday forecast for launch time:45th Weather Squadron forecast is out publicly now:
Should get the info set a little later and a media briefing at 10 am Eastern.
Ugh. But Sunday looks good, 70% go, perhaps NASA might go straight into a 48 hour scrub if Friday doesn't work out?It depends on the situation on Friday; we'll have to wait to see.
If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go
Well, shoot. How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday? :)Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go
Well, forecasting has made a few strides since the 80's so odds are extremely remote of that happening these days. Plus NSF didn't have a staff meteorologist back then ;)
Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know ;)I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
Well, shoot. How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday? :)
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?there where launches that had a 100% no-go before.. can't remember the number but I remember that they where prepping for launch and the news crews where wondering whey they where trying to do the countdown knowing it was a 100% no-go but just before the planned launch time the weather cleared up and they launched.. surprised everyone..
Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know ;)I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
As noted earlier, a 48-hour delay is seen as likely since the intense amount of traffic from all the launch viewers will make it difficult for workers to get home and rest before they have to come back.
Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
In aviation, forecast visibility is always expressed as "better than six statute miles." It'll likely be better than that.
Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
In aviation, forecast visibility is always expressed as "better than six statute miles." It'll likely be better than that.
What would you prefer? No haze, but the Shuttle disappears into the clouds 20-25 seconds after launch (like happened on STS-134), or 7-10 miles visibility through haze but otherwise clear skies at the time of launch?
I would guess that, as the Shuttle ascends, it would get easier to see for people especially in the northern areas (Titusville, etc.) because you aren't looking through as much humidity? Most of the really humid, hazy air is in the lowest 2 miles of the atmosphere, correct?
When will the most accurate forecast be available?
And how high is the probabilities of a Saturday or Sunday launch?
How about this one..........What is the probability of wind shear tearing the tropical wave apart?I doubt that would ever happen. Wind shear simply prevents waves from developing further (into cyclones, for example), or weakens cyclones back into tropical depressions and tropical waves, but wind shear normally isn't enough to suppress the wave itself. And unfortunately for Shuttle launches, it doesn't take organized cyclone activity to cause a scrub.
The thing to remember: 20-40% of acceptable weather Friday. You never know what may happen. This is one of those times of the year where the weather pattern changes frequently and can really surprise you. It makes it hard to predict this far out.
Hang on and remember that there's nothing that anyone, even top-notch forecasters like Mr. Dale, can do to get a 100% accurate picture until we're right up on top of it and the systems and movement of the day can be predicted based on realtime data.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JULY 06 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P12
SHRA/TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW040 7 34006P09
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 32005P08
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 7 18008P12
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SCT200 7 15006P09
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW SKC 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 07/1130Z
Updated STS-135 weather forecast - there is a 30 percent chance of favorable weather for Friday’s 11:26 a.m. EDT launch of shuttle Atlantis.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 70%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers/Thunderstorms within 20NM of the SLF, Flight Through Precipitation, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Nothing changing from my vantage point other than the rest of the weekend looking worse than my original forecast. I wouldn't even go with a 50/50 shot on Sunday.
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD?The Mission Management Team decides -- the standard L-2 meeting is today, so they're already working. (At KSC, the MMT is chaired by Mike Moses...no change there.) They'll meet in the hold prior to tanking and decide -- as they always do -- whether or not to proceed.
Nothing changing from my vantage point other than the rest of the weekend looking worse than my original forecast. I wouldn't even go with a 50/50 shot on Sunday.
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD? Does it take a 100% chance of negative conditions or something else? Do they wait until tanking at T-6 hours? Until RSS retract at T-11 hours?
(This is NASA, so I'm sure there's a 50-page document answering these questions in detail.)
it happened on november 4th, 2010 for STS-133.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/11/sts-133-live-attempt-one/ (http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/11/sts-133-live-attempt-one/)
and the 45th forecast the day before was (drum roll)... 80% against.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23118.msg655107#msg655107 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23118.msg655107#msg655107)
Presumably the 40% probability prohibiting tanking was also a significant concern / contraint to tanking starting?
Presumably the 40% probability prohibiting tanking was also a significant concern / contraint to tanking starting?
Probably not, since by the time they meet for tanking that 40% is much closer to 0 or 100.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.The traditional pre-launch news conference is in about an hour -- if the MMT decided anything, we'll hear about it then.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
Tell your friend to stop telling you nonsense. And this site reported the GUCP issue way before 20 minutes on the official announcement, so I doubt he did more than read this site and pretend he's in the loop.
Don't post stupid rumors which aren't true on here.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 70%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers/Thunderstorms within 20NM of the SLF, Flight Through Precipitation, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
:-[Why does nature has to be so cure?!
If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.Mike Moses said something along these lines, but added the important caveat that he's keeping his options open. They don't have to make a decision on tanking -- or other go/no-go decisions with a big weather component -- until later.
Atlantis hasn't scrubbed since November 2007, doesn't look Atlantis will maintain that track record.Weather or other short-term delays of a day or two are dwarfed by bigger issues that sometimes happen before a Shuttle-stack gets to launch count. Such as with Atlantis prior to STS-125.
So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
Yep. Sorry, I forgot to turn on the sarcasm font.So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
I think he was making a joke :)
If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.Mike Moses said something along these lines, but added the important caveat that he's keeping his options open. They don't have to make a decision on tanking -- or other go/no-go decisions with a big weather component -- until later.
So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
Why are launches allowed with RH of 0-10% down to 48F, but if the RH is 90-100%, down to 44F? And why does the minimum acceptable temperature decrease as wind increases?So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/423407main_weather-rules-feb2010.pdf
Really Short Version: No clouds below 8000 unless the layer is less than 500 ft thick (launch constraint) and the bases are above 5000 (RTLS constraint). No clouds meeting certain (electrical storm) criteria within 10 miles of flight path. No flight through rain. No lightning within 10 miles within 30 minutes of launch time.
Offhand only-slightly-educated guess and I'll take the second one first since I have better confidence.Yeah but on the other hand, a higher RH value makes ice that much more likely to form in large amounts, doesn't it? I mean, if the RH is 0% or very close to it, it doesn't matter how cold it is -- you just won't get any ice forming at all. And wind is something that I see as transporting a larger volume of air past the points where ice form more quickly (which means more water has the opportunity to condense out and freeze). If I have two cooling coils that are below freezing, one just sitting in still air and another with a fan blowing on it, the one with the fan blowing on it is going to have a lot more ice form on it after a given amount of time.
On a very calm day, if you have very cold temps on a surface (think ice-forming areas) it can cool the air nearby below it's ambient temperature, and enhance the icing process. If you have wind constantly blowing the cooler air away from the surface and replacing with warmer air, it won't ice as fast. Think of sitting in a pool by yourself - your body heat warms the immediate area. If you're in a river, that warm air near you is blown away. So reverse this setup to bring it back to shuttle.
My guess on the RH is brittleness? Things that need to be flexible (rubber) grow harder in cold dry air than cold moist air. So if the RH is high, it can be a little more chilled in the air.
I know I have documents somewhere with more of an explainer, if no experts chime in I'll dig around.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
630 AM CDT THURSDAY JULY 07 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P13
SHRA/TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW035 FEW100 7 33009P13
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 31007P10
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 FEW120 7 19010P14
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P13
SHRA/TSRA WI 30NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW FEW080 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
NOR ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 08/0320
The updated STS-135 weather forecast remains the same as yesterday with a 30 percent prediction for favorable launch weather.
where are we with the weather situation as far as tanking and launch
Looks pretty bad tomorrow. I'm tempted to reduce my 20% of launch to 10%. I don't see anything that would make tomorrow's weather different from today's, and there never was a slot today when we could have launched. No significant change into the weekend.
Since people worry that I'm too quiet with a critical launch less than 24 hours away, I thought I'd drop by and make those people happy ;)
I don't see how anyone would even want to risk spending all that time driving to KSC and back for what will probably be a zero chance of launch.
so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday, we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
Yes, and also SMG. The trick to this is show up for all tankings and don't get ahead of the forecasts or the forecasters. Also resist the urge to get ahead of MMT decisions.so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday, we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
I guess the 45th weather squadron will update us tomorrow.
Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
Thank you! This thread is so incredibly helpful.
Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
QuoteNOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
630 AM CDT THURSDAY JULY 07 2011
...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 08/0320
KTTS 0718/0818 18006KT 9999 VCTS FEW012 FEW030CB SCT050 BKN190 OVC250 QNH2993INS WND 110V230
TEMPO 0718/0724 VRB10G15KT 1600 +TSRA BKN012 OVC025CB
BECMG 0723/0724 19004KT 9999 VCSH SCT012 SCT025 BKN050 BKN190 OVC250 QNH2989INS
TEMPO 0801/0804 VRB06KT 2400 SHRA VCTS BKN012 OVC025CB
BECMG 0814/0815 20010G18KT 9999 VCTS FEW012 SCT025CB BKN050 BKN150 OVC250 QNH2986INS T29/0818Z T24/0810Z LAST NO AMDS AFT 0802 NEXT 0812
Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
Note at the end of the longline forecast they indicate an update at 0320Z (1120PM EDT)
so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday
we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
I'm just bringing a book knowing full well that there's about a 95% chance that I'll spend a lovely drizzly rainy few hours sitting out on the causeway only to have a scrub called during the T-9 minute hold polling.
Weren't we going to get an update by 11:20 EDT?
Heh -- was just going to post. That forecast appears to be for the MMT tanking meeting...another one supposedly coming up soon -- but may not be much change.Weren't we going to get an update by 11:20 EDT?
They issued it at 10:29pm. No change.
What do the green areas actually represent? Moisture, clouds, electrical activity?For most of the displays, moisture/precip.
What do the green areas actually represent? Moisture, clouds, electrical activity?
thanks
Weather was no-go at launch time due to RTLS showers, but we launched anyways so everyone wins ;)
SPECI KTTS 081529Z 20014G20KT 10SM FEW015 FEW032 BKN120 BKN150 BKN200 29/24 A2997 RMK SLP149 1CU 1CU /0/ 5AC 1AC 7CS /7/ N2014/20 C2012/17 S1708/14
Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
My wife is a reporter for the CBS Affiliate in Baltimore. They did a full special report on the Launch today and had an entire team of meterologist agreeing that there is almost no chance of a launch this weekend. kinda disappointing, but it is further confirmation of things not looking too good.
Ddale, we were the stupid-idiots who listened to you last night and decided not to waste our time by making the 4-hour drive to Orlando for our Gator connection. From what we witness on TV this morning, which showed a huge crowd at Kennedy Space Center, maybe the only idiots who hung onto your words since they were spoken by a man-in-the-know, an expert. Yes, it was our decision not to go…..but weren’t you aware that people (as stupid as us) were following you and believed in your professional opinion. Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
I cannot believe we bought causeway tickets and missed the last launch EVER…..lesson learned. If there is even a .0000005% chance of a favorable outcome, we’re taking it.
Now back to moping…
Well I was at 80% at one point so I'll take credit/blame for that, but nobody in their right mind ever said 0% chance of launch.
As soon as they went for tanking, 12 hours before launch, you'd think that was an indication there was more than zero percent chance?Bingo. If they tank, you go.
Ddale, we were the stupid-idiots who listened to you last night and decided not to waste our time by making the 4-hour drive to Orlando for our Gator connection. From what we witness on TV this morning, which showed a huge crowd at Kennedy Space Center, maybe the only idiots who hung onto your words since they were spoken by a man-in-the-know, an expert. Yes, it was our decision not to go…..but weren’t you aware that people (as stupid as us) were following you and believed in your professional opinion. Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
I cannot believe we bought causeway tickets and missed the last launch EVER…..lesson learned. If there is even a .0000005% chance of a favorable outcome, we’re taking it.
Now back to moping…
you did say zero (not 0%) launch probability yesterday.
I don't see how anyone would even want to risk spending all that time driving to KSC and back for what will probably be a zero chance of launch.
I didn't know that “no go” really meant “go” from an expert until today's post!
Or 99% against, depending on your source ;)
On the good side, it's not a tropical system, it's not a front, so the storms won't be continuous or run all day. There's always a chance to get a nice break for a few hours.
And to make the end come even sooner - I'll be up north sitting on a lake with limited Internet access in the landing timeframe (barring a +4 extension) so psloss will take the reigns as chief for that one...I'm not likely to be able to for EOM. And given the grief and over-reaction, maybe it's better not to post, anyway.