NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
NASA Shuttle Specific Sections => Atlantis (Post STS-135, T&R) => Topic started by: Lawntonlookirs on 05/19/2009 01:52 pm
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Just an early post on the weather. The KSC has thunderstorms forecasted all the way through the week and weekend. rdale will probably give us an update shortly, but what I can see the storms have been pretty bad with some flooding.
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FWIW, SMG forecast from this morning shows only a chance of showers within 30 for Friday, but this appears to be looking at the original deorbit opportunities. The weather one rev earlier may be a little better, but for comparison, look at today's forecast.
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I don't see a whole lot of reason to expect KSC landing on the first try... or the second... or... At this point it does look very unsettled across Florida for the next few days. It's not like a typical event where we get afternoon storms popping up on the sea breeze either, so I'm not so sure that moving a little earlier will be of any help. Obviously not saying "No" to KSC at this point, but not very optimistic about it happening...
Landing Weather Links: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070606-012.pdf
Spaceflight Meteorology Group: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC
National Weather Service: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Titusville&state=FL&site=MLB&textField1=28.5888&textField2=-80.8202&e=0
NWS Forecast Discsussion: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB
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We'll obviously have to wait for the call, but I take it from that, they will simply choose EDW for the first opportunity. Let's ALL hope NOR isn't needed.
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Any guesses when a landing may occur if EDW is used?
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We'll obviously have to wait for the call, but I take it from that, they will simply choose EDW for the first opportunity. Let's ALL hope NOR isn't needed.
I doubt they've given up on a KSC landing... Remember they have waveoff days in there just for this purpose.
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We'll obviously have to wait for the call, but I take it from that, they will simply choose EDW for the first opportunity. Let's ALL hope NOR isn't needed.
I doubt they've given up on a KSC landing... Remember they have waveoff days in there just for this purpose.
Not to go too far OT, but the LiOH situation for STS-127 is also driving a shorter on-orbit time somewhat. The more they save on Atlantis, the greater the benefit for ISS ops.
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Looking at the forecast, there's little chance STS-400 would be able to fly this weekend without a whole lot of luck.
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Morning forecast from SMG:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0
Excerpt:
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
900 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 20 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/22/09
TIME: 1402Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
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U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - FRIDAY 05/22/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC FEW020 SCT040 BKN100 7 10011P17
CHC TSRA WI 30NM CHC BKN040
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT150 BKN250 7 23008P14
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN100 7 16007P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
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Doesn't look good for tomorrow at KSC, and the weekend as well... maybe early for that.
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I believe the Entry flight control team will go over an updated forecast with the crew later, but the morning SMG forecast is out:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0
Excerpt showing tomorrow's current forecast for the primary U.S. landing sites:
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
800 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 21 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/22/09
TIME: 1402Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - FRIDAY 05/22/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC FEW020 BKN040 BKN100 7 11012P19
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT150 BKN250 7 23010P17
AFT 17Z WIND 23016P23
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN100 7 21007P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
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With the forecast for the weekend the way it is, it surprises me that they don't go for EDW on Friday as it appears that is where they will land anyway. Just my thoughts
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With the forecast for the weekend the way it is, it surprises me that they don't go for EDW on Friday as it appears that is where they will land anyway. Just my thoughts
I had the same thoughts (read up), but was squashed.
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With the forecast for the weekend the way it is, it surprises me that they don't go for EDW on Friday as it appears that is where they will land anyway. Just my thoughts
Why is a EDW landing on Friday better than a KSC landing on Sunday?
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With the forecast for the weekend the way it is, it surprises me that they don't go for EDW on Friday as it appears that is where they will land anyway. Just my thoughts
Because there's no price to pay in staying up another day... The weather forecast does improve for KSC over the weekend, and to be honest Friday isn't a complete failure yet.
It takes a LONG time to get the shuttle back from the west coast compared to landing directly at KSC.
So giving KSC an additional chance, at no cost to the shuttle or crew or overall schedule in ANY way, could result in much better big picture.
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With the forecast for the weekend the way it is, it surprises me that they don't go for EDW on Friday as it appears that is where they will land anyway. Just my thoughts
Because there's no price to pay in staying up another day... The weather forecast does improve for KSC over the weekend, and to be honest Friday isn't a complete failure yet.
It takes a LONG time to get the shuttle back from the west coast compared to landing directly at KSC.
So giving KSC an additional chance, at no cost to the shuttle or crew or overall schedule in ANY way, could result in much better big picture.
For the other orbiters, I would say yes. But since Atlantis will simply have thorough inspections until late next year...no rush to bring her home to KSC. It also frees up STS-127 from LON, provides ISS with additional LiOH cannisters, frees the on-orbit team, and lastly: should (heaven forbid) ASA becomes a problem, you have runway surface more ideal than KSC. That's my 2cents. Sorry for grabbing the thread.
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For the other orbiters, I would say yes. But since Atlantis will simply have thorough inspections until late next year...no rush to bring her home to KSC.
Atlantis is flying STS-129, late this year. It has fairly significant reconfig work to go from HST to ISS support, including things like ODS reinstall and verification.
With the flight rate on the schedule, all three orbiters will be busy.
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We'll obviously have to wait for the call, but I take it from that, they will simply choose EDW for the first opportunity. Let's ALL hope NOR isn't needed.
I doubt they've given up on a KSC landing... Remember they have waveoff days in there just for this purpose.
Not to go too far OT, but the LiOH situation for STS-127 is also driving a shorter on-orbit time somewhat. The more they save on Atlantis, the greater the benefit for ISS ops.
Can you explain why this flight will effect STS-127 LiOH? Sounds interesting.
Danny Deger
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We'll obviously have to wait for the call, but I take it from that, they will simply choose EDW for the first opportunity. Let's ALL hope NOR isn't needed.
I doubt they've given up on a KSC landing... Remember they have waveoff days in there just for this purpose.
Not to go too far OT, but the LiOH situation for STS-127 is also driving a shorter on-orbit time somewhat. The more they save on Atlantis, the greater the benefit for ISS ops.
Can you explain why this flight will effect STS-127 LiOH? Sounds interesting.
Danny Deger
Per L2:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=17091.msg407607#msg407607
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After looking at the ground track compared to the current satellite loop I would say things are not looking good for a landing tomorrow.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html)
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Satellite loops tell us what happened in the past - they are not predicting the future...
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After looking at the ground track compared to the current satellite loop I would say things are not looking good for a landing tomorrow or even the next.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html)
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Satellite loops tell us what happened - that's not a forecast of what's going to happen...
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I disagree. The low center is West Southwest of the Cape. Track is East North East and pulling moisture with it. While looking at the loop is past...it does very much tell with some certainty the future.
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It's part of the input I use into making my forecast, but it certainly isn't something that would make me say the weekend is a complete washout.
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Looking at Edwards for Sat and Sunday, the forecast is for windy weather, up around 20 knots.
Perhaps we will see a White Sands landing againafter all these years!
Pure speculation of course!
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FWIW here's a satellite snap over Florida:
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Melbourne long range. Rain is still generating well offshore and all headed NW.
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Perhaps we will see a White Sands landing againafter all these years!
Let us hope we don't.
Analyst
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What a mess. Latest SMG forecast followed by slightly worse aviation TAFs. I know it costs time and money, but I'm betting on a road trip to Edwards for me early Saturday morning.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
302 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 22 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/22/09
TIME: 1402Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - FRIDAY 05/22/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
KSC FEW020 BKN040 BKN120 7 10012P19
TSRA WI 30NM
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
KSC FEW020 BKN040 BKN120 7 10012P19
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT150 BKN250 7 23010P17
AFT 17Z WIND 23016P23
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN100 7 21007P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS/XWIND
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SATURDAY 05/23/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT070 BKN150 7 13010P16
CHC SHRA/TSRA WI 30NM CHC BKN070
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23009P15
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23012P20
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN120 7 23005P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
KTTS 220808Z 08008G17KT 030V140 7SM FEW009 BKN018CB OVC040 22/22 A2993 RMK CB E AND DSNT N-DSNT E-DSNT SE MOV NW
KTTS 2202/2302 12012G20KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 BKN050 OVC250 510005 QNH2995INS
BECMG 2206/2207 12015G25KT 8000 -SHRA BR SCT015 BKN025CB OVC055 QNH2992INS
TEMPO 2207/2210 11015G25KT 6000 -SHRA BR VCTS SCT015 BKN020CB OVC055 QNH2996INS
TEMPO 2210/2215 11018G28KT 4800 -TSRA SCT015 BKN020CB OVC050
BECMG 2214/2215 11015G25KT 8000 -SHRA BR VCTS FEW015 SCT025CB BKN070 OVC150 QNH2993INS T26/2219Z T21/2209Z
KEDW 220755Z 21012KT 30SM FEW250 18/04 A2986 RMK AO2A SLP069 T01790036 403230152
KEDW 2202/2302 22020G25KT 9999 FEW060 520009 QNH2980INS
BECMG 2203/2204 22012G18KT 9999 FEW060 510009 QNH2983INS
BECMG 2205/2206 22012KT 9999 SKC QNH2985INS
BECMG 2217/2218 24012G18KT 9999 FEW060 FEW150 QNH2986INS
BECMG 2221/2222 24020G30KT 9999 FEW060 FEW150 520009 QNH2979INS T32/2222Z T16/2213Z
KHMN 220755Z AUTO 06003KT 10SM SCT044 OVC080 17/12 A3001 RMK AO2 DZB0705E0716 SLP093 P0000 T01730118 $
KHMN 2205/2303 20009KT 9999 OVC100 QNH2992INS
BECMG 2218/2219 18015G25KT 9999 VCTS BKN070CB BKN120 BKN200 520009 QNH2980INS
TEMPO 2219/2301 VRB25G35KT 8000 -TSRA 530009
BECMG 2302/2303 17012G18KT 9999 -SHRA SCT050 BKN080 BKN120 BKN200 QNH2985INS T26/2222Z T17/2212Z 220518 AUTOMATED SENSOR METWATCH 2206 TIL 2214
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Looking at Edwards for Sat and Sunday, the forecast is for windy weather, up around 20 knots.
The forecast is for winds almost right down the runway, which would be acceptable.
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What a mess. Latest SMG forecast followed by slightly worse aviation TAFs. I know it costs time and money, but I'm betting on a road trip to Edwards for me early Saturday morning.
Depending on how long they're willing to wait on orbit, you might want to keep Sunday open, too.
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Just go home and enjoy your Friday - there's nothing to see here today ;)
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As rdale said :-) Wave off for today, and not considering EDW. Guess they still hope for the weekend at KSC.
Ciao!
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Aviation TAFs don't bode well for KSC today... Winds look ok for Rwy 15, but ceiling, rain, and lightning violate landing criteria.
EDW is windy but forecast well within headwind limits until later in the day.
KTTS 230600Z 12009G19KT 080V150 8SM FEW018 FEW060 SCT080 BKN150 OVC270 22/22 A2997 RMK OCNL LTGIC DSNT NE-DSNT SE CB DSNT NE-DSNT SE MOV NW
KTTS 2302/2402 12010KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 FEW040 BKN150 QNH2996INS
TEMPO 2303/2307 13010G20KT 8000 -SHRA BR VCTS SCT012 BKN025CB OVC070
BECMG 2310/2311 14010G15KT 9000 -SHRA BR VCTS FEW012 BKN025CB OVC070 QNH2998INS
TEMPO 2313/2318 14015G22KT 6000 -TSRA SCT012 OVC025CB
BECMG 2321/2322 12010G15KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT040 BKN150 QNH2997INS T26/2318Z T21/2310Z
KEDW 230555Z 22013KT 30SM FEW150 19/03 A2989 RMK AO2A SLP082 T01880032 10294 20188 52012
KEDW 2302/2402 23025G30KT 9999 FEW040 FEW150 520009 QNH2981INS
BECMG 2302/2303 23015G22KT 9999 FEW050 FEW150 QNH2986INS
BECMG 2306/2307 22009KT 9999 FEW150 QNH2993INS
BECMG 2318/2319 23010G15KT 9999 SCT150 QNH2983INS
BECMG 2321/2322 24020G25KT 9999 SCT150 520009 QNH2980INS T32/2322Z T14/2311Z LAST NO AMDS AFT 2308 NEXT 2610
KHMN 230555Z AUTO 19003KT 10SM OVC120 13/12 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP126 60008 T01340123 10193 20134 53002 $
KHMN 2215/2311 24009KT 9999 OVC030 QNH2998INS
BECMG 2216/2217 20010G15KT 9999 OVC030 QNH2993INS
BECMG 2220/2221 18015G25KT 9999 VCTS BKN090CB QNH2990INS
TEMPO 2300/2304 6000 -TSRA OVC120CB
BECMG 2303/2304 13009KT 9999 NSW FEW070 QNH2996INS T22/2221Z T14/2308Z 221522 LAST NO AMDS AFT 2215 NEXT 2311
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The SMG forecast from a few hours back:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0
The biggest change I see is for the Sunday KSC forecast, which looks worse (i.e., doesn't improve much from recent conditions).
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
217 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 23 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/23/09
TIME: 1317Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SATURDAY 05/23/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT020 BKN040 BKN120 7 12008P14
TSRA WI 30NM
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT025 BKN045 BKN120 7 13010P16
TSRA WI 30NM
THIRD OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT025 SCT050 BKN120 7 13010P16
TSRA WI 30NM CHC BKN050
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23009P15
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23009P15
THIRD OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23012P20
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN120 7 23005P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+2 - SUNDAY 05/24/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT025 BKN050 BKN150 7 11010P16
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 23009P15
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT120 SCT250 7 29005P09
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... ANVIL/LIGHTNING/PRECIP
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Latest SMG update that covers Sunday and Monday. I know NASA likes to "keep options open" and run things down to the wire, but I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday... and that's really pushing to the limit.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
800 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 23 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/24/09
TIME: 1411Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+2 - SUNDAY 05/24/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT025 BKN050 BKN150 7 11010P16
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 20007P12
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT120 SCT250 7 29005P09
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... ANVIL/LIGHTNING/PRECIP
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+3 - MONDAY 05/25/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT035 BKN150 7 15007P12
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 20007P12
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR FEW250 7 30005P09
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
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I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday
Expectation? No. But much better look to Sun/Mon weather at KSC than today? Certainly.
Edwards is completely beautiful the next two days, so there should be no concern about getting her down when needed.
I really am surprised about all the posts from people worried about the shuttle being up there an extra day or two. It really isn't that big of a deal, and I don't understand why the worry...
I will be off on vacation for the holiday so will let psloss take over from here.
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I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday
I really am surprised about all the posts from people worried about the shuttle being up there an extra day or two. It really isn't that big of a deal, and I don't understand why the worry...
I am shaking my head at this too today. Way too much worry about an extra day especially around the mmod risks... This has been way overblown... I would expect it from main stream media to overblow this but quite frankly it is almost a non issue... I was very surpised to read the comments by people on this forum being so concerned.. (note I am not saying it is NOT an issue... its just one that has been there forever anyway but only recently has been grabbed in the main stream as something that is supposed to be an extreme risk.... its the same risk it has always been)... I say enjoy the extra day in orbit... Wish I was so "inconvenienced" as the astronauts are.... lol..
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I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday
I really am surprised about all the posts from people worried about the shuttle being up there an extra day or two. It really isn't that big of a deal, and I don't understand why the worry...
I am shaking my head at this too today. Way too much worry about an extra day especially around the mmod risks... This has been way overblown... I would expect it from main stream media to overblow this but quite frankly it is almost a non issue... I was very surpised to read the comments by people on this forum being so concerned.. (note I am not saying it is NOT an issue... its just one that has been there forever anyway but only recently has been grabbed in the main stream as something that is supposed to be an extreme risk.... its the same risk it has always been)... I say enjoy the extra day in orbit... Wish I was so "inconvenienced" as the astronauts are.... lol..
I know this is drifting a bit OT for this thread, but I'll explain my initial comment - It's backed mostly by frustration over the entirely selfish desire to get a clear decision for an EDW landing so I can get up there to see it :) As an aviator myself, I've often put off weather "go/no-go" decisions until the last reasonable moment, so I totally understand the thinking here.
Having said that, Atlantis is in the position of needing to get down at some point, as opposed waiting to go up. There are risks, however slight, to staying up, but the question in my mind is what the cost-benefit is to wait until Monday (as the current mindset seems to suggest) vs. landing at EDW Friday because KSC looked crummy for the duration. It's been variously quoted that an EDW landing costs as much as $2M and delays processing flow by a week. If in fact things do get pushed until Monday, landing will have been delayed by 3 days, plus ground crew costs (what's the cost delta for a day of MCC ops?), and it's possible they'll wind up at EDW anyway.
I'm done now and will keep editorializing out of future weather posts :)
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Current conditions in florida
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Latest TAF for KSC looking better than it did the last two days, but still seems questionable.
KTTS 2402/2502 14010KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT050 SCT100 BKN250 QNH2995INS
BECMG 2414/2415 13010G18KT 9999 -SHRA VCTS FEW020 SCT040CB BKN250 QNH2993INS
BECMG 2500/2501 13008KT 9999 NSW FEW020 SCT040 BKN250 QNH2994INS T28/2419Z T21/2410Z LAST NO AMDS AFT 2402 NEXT 2410
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Latest SMG forecast is out:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
311 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 24 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/24/09
TIME: 1411Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+2 - SUNDAY 05/24/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT020 BKN035 OVC120 7 15005P08
TSRA WI 30NM
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT025 BKN045 OVC120 7 15007P10
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 22011P17
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW SKC 7 23013P20
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT120 SCT250 7 19005P09
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... ANVIL/LIGHTNING/PRECIP
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Wish Rob were here to bounce this off of, but I see some dry air that might move into the Cape area in the next few hours...not sure if it makes any difference, though...
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Top image from a visible satellite loop...not sure if it's the most recent in the loop, though...
Second image water vapor from an hour ago...the area of drier air appears to be slowly moving into the area, but we'll see if the precip will move out of the 30 nautical mile circle...
About 70 minutes to the time of the de-orbit burn for the 1st rev.
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Recent METAR from the SLF:
SPECI KTTS 241140Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW022 FEW150 SCT240 23/23 A2998 RMK TCU DSNT E-DSNT SE SLP152 1CU /1/ 1AC 3CI /3/ N1204/09 C1206/10 S1205/09
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A few minutes back PAO was relaying information from the weather officer in the MCC about the possibility of showers building up over land when the temperature reaches a certain point. That point was predicted to be 77F; the temperature at the time of the report was 74F, but was expected to reach 77 around the TIG time for the first opportunity (about 9 am local).
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When looking at the local radar from milbourne, the heavy storms are about 30 miles East of KSC and moving North.
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When looking at the local radar from milbourne, the heavy storms are about 30 miles East of KSC and moving North.
It doesn't look bad right now, and those storms may not have interfered, but the forecast is for build-up to begin closer to the coast.
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Looking at the radar, those rain showers seem to be right over the HAC for a runway 33 landing.
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Looking at the radar, those rain showers seem to be right over the HAC for a runway 33 landing.
The HAC is not that wide; if that's a shuttle-related display, then the inner circle is probably the 30 n.mi limit.
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Latest observation from the SLF:
SPECI KTTS 241310Z 16008KT 10SM FEW015 FEW150 SCT240 25/23 A3001 RMK SLP162 1CU /0/ 1AC 3CI /2/ N1608/12 C1408/12 S1507/10
The temperature has reached the 77F "bingo" temp that was a concern...
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I asked this on another thread but got no answer. Anyone know why a landing on rev 195 was not an option? The orbit was in-plane with KSC and it would have been a better choice for deorbit if ground heating was the issue.
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I asked this on another thread but got no answer. Anyone know why a landing on rev 195 was not an option? The orbit was in-plane with KSC and it would have been a better choice for deorbit if ground heating was the issue.
Not sure, but I would guess one of the factors is the crew day; they would have had to shift their sleep earlier in the day, and then that may have reduced landing options for Edwards later in the day.
Ground heating is one of the major issues now, but it's not clear if they had any better certainty earlier in the morning for conditions at that time.
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Weather at KSC was too unstable during rev 195, could not be sure there would be no precipitaiton within 30 nm of the SLF at the time of deorbit burn