NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
NASA Shuttle Specific Sections => Atlantis (Post STS-135, T&R) => Topic started by: hutchel on 02/17/2009 11:35 am
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With last week's collision in the general altitude of Hubble, are we looking at an increased MMOD risk? An article I read suggested that the clouds of debries would extend down into the Orbit Hubble is currently in.
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Note that per the collision thread - both satellites are still being tracked, the orbits barely changed of the two objects, and no debris is being tracked. So I don't think we can conclude "yes" until somebody starts finding pieces.
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Of course, if the collision was "tangential" as Interfax reports, the debris cloud is much smaller... however, there's a big difference between what NORAD tracked (according to Interfax 600 objects, don't know if this was after the cloud was allowed to expand or just an initial estimate) and the 30 pieces the Russian spokesman claims. "Solar batteries" and other expression make the statement somewhat less reliable.
We'll have to wait until official documents start appearing I suppose.
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Guess it will be covered in the new FRR-set for STS-125.
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To continue on this, there's a document in L2 citing an 6% increase in mission risk for STS-119 (that is, at ISS altitude and with ISS shielding) Probably that figure is a bit higher for Hubble altitude and no structure shielding, but can't speculate on what extent. An additional 2% increase was due to other smaller collisions.
I've also seen some info in SpaceWeather mentioning how the debris cloud is evolving: the lower altitudes, around 200 km, are of course at the other side of the world with respect to the collision point: high antarctic latitudes. That somehow lowers a bit the risk for the shuttle, but only so much.