Author Topic: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?  (Read 23122 times)

Offline Khadgars

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Catching up on Voyager missions got me thinking about a flagship mission to one of our closest neighbors for anyone that's interested.

What are the chances of a flagship mission in the 2030's to either Proxima Centauri which is the closest to us at 4.2 LY or Epsilon Eridani at 10.5 LY but is the closest system to be know to harbor a planet?  Which one do you think makes the most sense?

What kind of propulsion do you guys think would be available by 2030 for interstellar space travel?
Evil triumphs when good men do nothing - Thomas Jefferson

Offline hop

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #1 on: 11/23/2011 09:43 pm »
What kind of propulsion do you guys think would be available by 2030 for interstellar space travel?
Powerpoint and wishful thinking.

If you want some serious discussion of this kind of mission, google "Project Daedalus", "Project Longshot" and "Project Icarus".

Offline apace

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #2 on: 11/23/2011 09:44 pm »
What kind of propulsion do you guys think would be available by 2030 for interstellar space travel?

As all money from Nasa is using to the mid 2020 for the SLS there will be no new advances propulsion technology available in 2030.

Offline neilh

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #3 on: 11/23/2011 09:46 pm »
A related fun thought experiment: At what ppoint (in terms of technology, speed, and/or year) might one launch such a probe and have > 50% confidence that a later mission with more advanced technology and greater average speed wouldn't get there first?
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Offline hop

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #4 on: 11/23/2011 09:47 pm »
As all money from Nasa is using to the mid 2020 for the SLS there will be no new advances propulsion technology available in 2030.
Do we really need *another* thread flogging this particular horse ?

Regardless of SLS, there's no realistic chance of an interstellar mission in this time frame. Look at the costs estimates for the studies I mentioned. SLS wouldn't even be in the noise.

Offline spectre9

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #5 on: 11/24/2011 09:29 am »
Some kind of electric thrusting nuclear powered probe might get there in a century.

Not worth it when you consider we could just build space telescopes to have a look and then choose those systems with earthlike planets to launch the flagship mission probes at.

Offline kkattula

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #6 on: 11/24/2011 03:50 pm »
What kind of propulsion do you guys think would be available by 2030 for interstellar space travel?

As all money from Nasa is using to the mid 2020 for the SLS there will be no new advances propulsion technology available in 2030.

Right... the budget just passed allocates 27% for Science and only 10% for SLS. But let's not let facts get in the way of a good diatribe.


On topic: The only near term propulsion options I can think of are nuclear pulse and laser-boosted solar sail. Anything else requires breakthrough science, not just clever (and massive) engineering.

Offline Cog_in_the_machine

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #7 on: 11/24/2011 06:25 pm »
Right... the budget just passed allocates 27% for Science and only 10% for SLS. But let's not let facts get in the way of a good diatribe.

I like how you lump science and advanced propulsion together, like they invariably go hand and hand.

Anyway, Khadgars, from what I understand sending anything to another star is likely to remain a herculean task for quite some time. Don't count on any nation/s undertaking it while you (or your grand children) are alive. I'm aware of a few interstellar studies under NASA's banner:

Solar sail propelled - http://interstellar.jpl.nasa.gov/interstellar/probe/introduction/intro.html

Ion engine propelled - http://interstellarexplorer.jhuapl.edu/index.php

Admitedly I found out about these from wikipedia. It also mentions a NIAC study called "Realistic Interstellar Explorer", which supposedly:

Quote
... suggested a 5 megawatt fission reactor utilizing 16 metric tonnes of H2 propellant. Targeting a launch in the mid-21st century, it would accelerate to 200 AU/year over 4200 AU and reach the star Epsilon Eridani after 3400 years of travel in the year 5500 AD.
However, this was a 2nd generation vision for a probe and the study acknowledged that even 20 AU/year might not be possible with then current (2002) technology.

It cites this as it's source - http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/library/meetings/misc/trieste_may02_mtg/McNutt_Ralph.pdf

My computer hasn't been able to load that pdf file though. Perhaps you'll have more luck with it. If the wikipedia synopsis is accurate though, it doesn't sound promising at all. The first two interstellar missions (the ones that actually don't aim to go to other stars) are likely the most that can be expected within reason. You can browse the links and see their scientific merit, engineering requirements, spacecraft specs etc.
^^ Warning! Contains opinions. ^^ 

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #8 on: 11/24/2011 06:39 pm »
It's exceedingly unlikely that any kind of interstellar unmanned mission will be carried out this century. The obstacles to it are gargantuan.

First of all, there is no current or forseeable propulsion system capable of propelling such a craft to destination in any sort of useful time-frame (with the possible exception of a Project Orion-type nuclear pulse drive, which is out of the question since it is a political no-go as it is a breach of the Outer Space Treaty and contrary to the spirit of nuclear disarmement. Plus, the drive's NEMP would also wreck havoc on our communication satellites and electronics grid on Earth if were lit up anywhere near our planet).

Then, even if such a drive were available, the mission would still last many decades before arriving at destination. With no remote-operation possible from Earth (years of light-lag); the probe would require some sort of artificial intelligence capable of making the kind of complex decisions a live human crew would be capable of, as well as being equipped with self-repair and reprogramming abilities. This is also far beyond anything we are currently capable of.

Finally, it is total idiocy to launch a mission requiring what is probably a multi-trillion dollar investment with such an unclear objective. Before we could even contemplate beginning such a pharaonic task, we would have to remotely scout out the possible target star systems (with telescopes and the like) and be darn sure there is actually something WORTH exploring there. And by "worth" I mean unique and interesting enough to warrant a pharaonic, multi-decade, multi-trillion dollar effort. (Nobody is going to build an interstellar probe just to look at the Proxima Centauri version of asteroids).

Right now, about the only thing I can think of that would potentially justify such a an effort is if we found conclusive evidence that intelligent extra-terrestrial life was present in the target star system...
« Last Edit: 11/24/2011 06:47 pm by aquanaut99 »

Offline savuporo

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #9 on: 11/24/2011 07:48 pm »
(with the possible exception of a Project Orion-type nuclear pulse drive, which is out of the question since it is a political no-go as it is a breach of the Outer Space Treaty and contrary to the spirit of nuclear disarmement. Plus, the drive's NEMP would also wreck havoc on our communication satellites and electronics grid on Earth if were lit up anywhere near our planet).
You do not need to light it this side of jupiter, do you ? Neither would you need to launch reactor and the fuel in the same container. We are talking a century lasting mission anyway, so there really would not be much rush for the mission staging.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #10 on: 11/24/2011 08:25 pm »
You do not need to light it this side of jupiter, do you ? Neither would you need to launch reactor and the fuel in the same container. We are talking a century lasting mission anyway, so there really would not be much rush for the mission staging.

It would still violate the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, which outlaws any nuclear detonation that is not carried out underground. And yes, it specifically includes Outer Space, even beyond Jupiter.

In fact, the signing of this treaty is what ended Project Orion in the first place.

Offline Watchdog

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #11 on: 11/24/2011 10:07 pm »
What are the chances of a flagship mission in the 2030's to either Proxima Centauri which is the closest to us at 4.2 LY or Epsilon Eridani at 10.5 LY but is the closest system to be know to harbor a planet?  Which one do you think makes the most sense?

What kind of propulsion do you guys think would be available by 2030 for interstellar space travel?

The chances are very slim. But supposed the sort of financial crises we observe today can be overcome and the economic development of the technologically leading countries of the world will not be interrupted by regional or global war there is a possibility to send a small probe between 2030 and 2040 to Proxima Centauri.

I estimate that the 25 most developed countries have to spend about 2 percent of their annual national budget over 10 years in order to built up the necessary infrastructure. This infrastructure will not only allow the interested nations to accelerate a high tech nanoprobe (about 10 kg science payload) to about 5 to 10 percent of the speed of light, but also use the same infrastructur to explore the Kuiper belt, the Oort cloud and the outer planets and their moons.

In analogy to the earth bound navigation and communication systems (e.g. Iridium, Gobalstar, GPS, Glonass, Compass) a network of solar and nuclear power stations are required to provide the external propulsion for the various probes to be send to the target bodies within and without the solar system. This international system of stations will be coordinated and used like modern telescopes where every party gets its share in terms of observation time, here "propulsion time/power".

In the inner solar system the solar powered stations will generate a beam of particles over the time the target probe can be sustained to be reflected by its mirror (passive propulsion). In the outer solar system nuclear powered stations will take over the accelaration of outgoing and the deceleration of incoming (e.g. sample return) probes.

Why is the system so expensive and will take decades to develop and to deploy? First, solar sails are at the beginning of their development. Even the feasibility of this technology has not yet been demonstrated succesfully in space, although a Japanese sail has tested the unfolding mechanism while flying behind the Venus probe Akatsuki.

Super light materials coated with suitable reflective layers to obtain a huge reflective area will be needed just to reflect solar radiation. Since the specific impulse of photons may not be sufficient to propel a probe to highest speeds heavier particles need to be applied. All the electronic and other components of the spacecraft need to be tolerant to highest speeds as well as side effects of the acceleration process.

Nevertheless, 95 percent of the costs of interstellar travel will be consumed by the development, construction and transportation to their various solar orbits of the beaming stations. I envision up to 200 of such stations distributed over the solar system in the final version. Their mass may vary between 20 and 100 metric tons. Space tugs need to haul them to their final orbits and even manned space ships will be required to repair and maintain them. In order to ensure a continuous accelaration of the probes one station has to give over the job to the next as soon as orbital parameters and the intensity and focus of the beam require this.

I donīt know if the feasibility of the technology could be tested by just flying a smaller beaming station behind the probe or even a cascade of beaming stations accelerating each other and finally providing sufficient thrust to the main probe. But the installation of a permanent network of stations just in the right distance from the sun to allow an orchestrated teamwork seems to be the most sustainable solution.

An initial version of the network comprising an affordable number of stations may be combined with gravity assist and solar sail propulsion to gain the neccesary velocity, but on the costs of a decade of time at least. Since most electronic and mechanical components need to function for about 50 to 100 years and redundancy will be limited due to mass restrictions the time the probe will spend to gain speed will be an issue. However, you need to send 10 probes of different design anyway to have a good chance of one of them surviving the trip.

I am sorry for the missing calculations or even estimated numbers. But without money these ideas are just a short summary of what most engineers already know: Interstellar travel is just expensive, because you simply cannot take your engine with you.
« Last Edit: 11/24/2011 10:37 pm by Watchdog »

Offline douglas100

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #12 on: 11/24/2011 11:04 pm »
One of the best sites for this subject: http://www.centauri-dreams.org/
It has extensive coverage of all aspects of interstellar flight. Recommend you have a read (if you haven't already done so) before you go posting on this thread.
« Last Edit: 11/24/2011 11:06 pm by douglas100 »
Douglas Clark

Offline Watchdog

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #13 on: 11/24/2011 11:47 pm »
One of the best sites for this subject: http://www.centauri-dreams.org/
It has extensive coverage of all aspects of interstellar flight. Recommend you have a read (if you haven't already done so) before you go posting on this thread.

Thank you very much for the link. I did not know the site, but appreciate the overwhelming information over there. Need more time to read...

Offline hop

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #14 on: 11/25/2011 12:13 am »
One of the best sites for this subject: http://www.centauri-dreams.org/
It has extensive coverage of all aspects of interstellar flight. Recommend you have a read (if you haven't already done so) before you go posting on this thread.

Thank you very much for the link. I did not know the site, but appreciate the overwhelming information over there. Need more time to read...
I also recommend http://www.icarusinterstellar.org/blog/

Offline gospacex

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #15 on: 11/25/2011 11:16 pm »
Catching up on Voyager missions got me thinking about a flagship mission to one of our closest neighbors for anyone that's interested.

What are the chances of a flagship mission in the 2030's to either Proxima Centauri which is the closest to us at 4.2 LY or Epsilon Eridani at 10.5 LY but is the closest system to be know to harbor a planet?  Which one do you think makes the most sense?

For that we'd better to focus on mastering IR and visible light interferometers.

We can create a million mile-base interferometers on much shorter timeframes and image planets and moons in those star systems than we can actually reach them with a (necessarily very weight-limited) probe.

On another angle, we'd better focus on exploring much closer objects such as outer planets, their satellites, and trans-Neptunian objects. For one, they are MUCH easier to reach. Secondly, they are more useful: we will definitely need to colonize them before we fly to other stars.

Offline hop

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #16 on: 11/25/2011 11:39 pm »
We can create a million mile-base interferometers on much shorter timeframes and image planets and moons in those star systems than we can actually reach them with a (necessarily very weight-limited) probe.
er stars.
Or a telescope using the sun as a gravitational lens http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=785 ... while the requirements of this are pretty mind boggling, it's still a lot easier than an interstellar mission. Also useful for data return if you do an interstellar mission.

Offline manboy

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #17 on: 11/26/2011 12:16 am »
Catching up on Voyager missions got me thinking about a flagship mission to one of our closest neighbors for anyone that's interested.

What are the chances of a flagship mission in the 2030's to either Proxima Centauri which is the closest to us at 4.2 LY or Epsilon Eridani at 10.5 LY but is the closest system to be know to harbor a planet?  Which one do you think makes the most sense?

What kind of propulsion do you guys think would be available by 2030 for interstellar space travel?
Its not going to happen by 2030. Project Longshot required a mass of 400 mt to be launched. The science budget couldn't even pay for the launch costs of a mission like that.

First of all, there is no current or forseeable propulsion system capable of propelling such a craft to destination in any sort of useful time-frame
How long is a useful time-frame?
« Last Edit: 11/26/2011 12:22 am by manboy »
"Cheese has been sent into space before. But the same cheese has never been sent into space twice." - StephenB

Offline the_roche_lobe

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #18 on: 11/26/2011 02:35 am »
Quote
Catching up on Voyager missions got me thinking about a flagship mission to one of our closest neighbors for anyone that's interested.

What are the chances of a flagship mission in the 2030's to either Proxima Centauri which is the closest to us at 4.2 LY or Epsilon Eridani at 10.5 LY but is the closest system to be know to harbor a planet?  Which one do you think makes the most sense?

How about we wait and let the teams that are currently planet hunting more fully characterise local systems? Its takes a long time to pull RV data out of the noise, even if you are HARPS, which seem to do this better than anyone. There may well be a planet in the a Cen system, we just haven't found it (them) yet. Heck, there may well still be a closer brown dwarf or rouge planet, the remaining WISE dataset will help with that. Lastly GAIA is going to hopefully revolutionise astrometric planetfinding. Perhaps in ten years we'll know where we *should* be sending hardware (not that I think its likely in this environment). If I was Czar for the day I'd fund the TPF, but I don't think that's going to happen either  :(

P

Offline JosephB

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Re: Flagship mission to Proxima Centauri or Epsilon Eridani?
« Reply #19 on: 11/26/2011 03:11 am »
Were TPF & SIM victims of JWST or was the technology not quite there or what?
What a cool area of astronomy to have the plug pulled.

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