Author Topic: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6  (Read 368803 times)

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #760 on: 04/14/2023 04:05 am »
In my view the second most likely outcome (after Boeing completing the six contracted flights and then stopping as @clongton expects) is that Boeing's accountants will persuade the Board that they are throwing good money after bad and they should just quit the Starliner program, without fulfilling their contact for six flights
In 2018, Boeing forced a renegotiation of their CCP contract. NASA agreed to pay them an additional $287 million, and the number of operational flights was changed from 2 guaranteed+4 optional to 6 guaranteed.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Development_of_the_Commercial_Crew_Program
I think the guarantee works both ways. NASA is obligated to buy the flights, but Boeing cannot arbitrarily decline to provide them at the contracted price. However, I am not a contract lawyer, so I could be wrong on this.

NASA might choose to hold Boeing to their contract if NASA thinks a second provider is still important. F9 has more than 200 successful flights and Dragon 2 has 17 successful flights (9 crewed), so this may no longer be a major consideration.

Offline hoku

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #761 on: 05/13/2023 08:07 pm »
My apologies if this has already been asked and answered before: why does Starliner end up with two rather well-defined (symmetrical) scorch marks from re-entry? Is there something special about its shape, and the resulting plasma flow, when compared, e.g., to the Apollo command module?

https://www.boeing.com/features/2023/05/giving-her-all.page
https://starlinerupdates.com/starliner-returns-to-kennedy-space-center-for-future-flight/


Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #762 on: 05/25/2023 05:45 pm »
Cross-posting:
Do you think we might see Starliner on New Glenn? There hasn't been any more talk of man-rating Vulcan from NASA, Boeing, or ULA. At least that I've seen. Particularly if either Lockheed is buying Boeing out of ULA, or Blue is buying ULA, it might make sense for Being to just move to New Glenn, which is being man-rated from the start.

An entirely different provider is also possible; the Firefly/NG MLV has grown to 16mT to LEO now, so it could probably launch Starliner.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #763 on: 05/25/2023 07:47 pm »
Cross-posting:
Do you think we might see Starliner on New Glenn? There hasn't been any more talk of man-rating Vulcan from NASA, Boeing, or ULA. At least that I've seen. Particularly if either Lockheed is buying Boeing out of ULA, or Blue is buying ULA, it might make sense for Being to just move to New Glenn, which is being man-rated from the start.

An entirely different provider is also possible; the Firefly/NG MLV has grown to 16mT to LEO now, so it could probably launch Starliner.
There is no requirement to crew-rate Starliner on a new LV until Boeing has a customer other than CCP. They have enough Atlas V allocated for CFT and all six contracted CCP flights. Once a new customer signs on, they probably have plenty of time to get crew rating on Vulcan Centaur. I don't know if the CCP contract would allow Boeing to use one or more of the Atlas Vs for non-CCP flights in anticipation of back-filling later using a different certified LV.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #764 on: 05/25/2023 11:10 pm »
Cross-posting:
Do you think we might see Starliner on New Glenn? There hasn't been any more talk of man-rating Vulcan from NASA, Boeing, or ULA. At least that I've seen. Particularly if either Lockheed is buying Boeing out of ULA, or Blue is buying ULA, it might make sense for Being to just move to New Glenn, which is being man-rated from the start.

An entirely different provider is also possible; the Firefly/NG MLV has grown to 16mT to LEO now, so it could probably launch Starliner.
There is no requirement to crew-rate Starliner on a new LV until Boeing has a customer other than CCP. They have enough Atlas V allocated for CFT and all six contracted CCP flights. Once a new customer signs on, they probably have plenty of time to get crew rating on Vulcan Centaur. I don't know if the CCP contract would allow Boeing to use one or more of the Atlas Vs for non-CCP flights in anticipation of back-filling later using a different certified LV.
If the Boeing beancounters think they can stemmed the red ink from the Starliner program with a new launch provider, then they will.

Put the Starliner on a cheap reliable launcher and resell the Atlas V flights to Amazon or whoever will pay more. The new cheap reliable launcher will have to be the already crew-rated Falcon 9. The alternate launchers costs more and not much flight history.

Offline rpapo

Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #765 on: 05/26/2023 11:06 am »
Cross-posting:
Do you think we might see Starliner on New Glenn? There hasn't been any more talk of man-rating Vulcan from NASA, Boeing, or ULA. At least that I've seen. Particularly if either Lockheed is buying Boeing out of ULA, or Blue is buying ULA, it might make sense for Being to just move to New Glenn, which is being man-rated from the start.

An entirely different provider is also possible; the Firefly/NG MLV has grown to 16mT to LEO now, so it could probably launch Starliner.
There is no requirement to crew-rate Starliner on a new LV until Boeing has a customer other than CCP. They have enough Atlas V allocated for CFT and all six contracted CCP flights. Once a new customer signs on, they probably have plenty of time to get crew rating on Vulcan Centaur. I don't know if the CCP contract would allow Boeing to use one or more of the Atlas Vs for non-CCP flights in anticipation of back-filling later using a different certified LV.
If the Boeing beancounters think they can stemmed the red ink from the Starliner program with a new launch provider, then they will.

Put the Starliner on a cheap reliable launcher and resell the Atlas V flights to Amazon or whoever will pay more. The new cheap reliable launcher will have to be the already crew-rated Falcon 9. The alternate launchers costs more and not much flight history.
NASA may not like that.  There is less dissimilar redundancy.
Following the space program since before Apollo 8.

Offline Barley

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #766 on: 05/26/2023 03:40 pm »
NASA may not like that.  There is less dissimilar redundancy.
Is that a requirement, i.e. written into a contract?  Or even a planning document?

I have a sense there is spec creep here.

Originally there were two programs, providing redundancy if one failed.

Now both must succeed to provide redundancy.

Some have mentioned that each program should be individually able to perform all future missions.

Next up each program must at all times be able to perform a launch on 48 hours notice.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #767 on: 05/26/2023 03:56 pm »
Cross-posting:
Do you think we might see Starliner on New Glenn? There hasn't been any more talk of man-rating Vulcan from NASA, Boeing, or ULA. At least that I've seen. Particularly if either Lockheed is buying Boeing out of ULA, or Blue is buying ULA, it might make sense for Being to just move to New Glenn, which is being man-rated from the start.

An entirely different provider is also possible; the Firefly/NG MLV has grown to 16mT to LEO now, so it could probably launch Starliner.
There is no requirement to crew-rate Starliner on a new LV until Boeing has a customer other than CCP. They have enough Atlas V allocated for CFT and all six contracted CCP flights. Once a new customer signs on, they probably have plenty of time to get crew rating on Vulcan Centaur. I don't know if the CCP contract would allow Boeing to use one or more of the Atlas Vs for non-CCP flights in anticipation of back-filling later using a different certified LV.
If the Boeing beancounters think they can stemmed the red ink from the Starliner program with a new launch provider, then they will.

Put the Starliner on a cheap reliable launcher and resell the Atlas V flights to Amazon or whoever will pay more. The new cheap reliable launcher will have to be the already crew-rated Falcon 9. The alternate launchers costs more and not much flight history.
NASA may not like that.  There is less dissimilar redundancy.
But the Boeing beancounters will like it and might allow Boeing to continue offering Starliner for other commercial flights post ISS. As well as not writing off and retiring the Starliner program ASAP.

NASA should be happy that the Starliner will not be retired after the 6 operational flight or before, if that means flying it on a Falcon 9.

Offline joek

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #768 on: 05/26/2023 04:03 pm »
Is that a requirement, i.e. written into a contract?  Or even a planning document?
...

Yes. That goes back to CCtCap. It is not in individual supplier contracts as NASA is responsible for ensuring redundancy. E.g., see here and here (among many others).
Quote from:  NASA
NASA has no plans to downselect the number of partners in response to lower-than-requested funding levels. As experience has shown with cargo, NASA’s plan to establish a redundant crew transportation capability is critically important for robust, safe ISS operations. ...

NASA continues to have a need for two unique crew capabilities to ensure dissimilar redundancy, ...

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #769 on: 05/26/2023 04:04 pm »
If the Boeing beancounters think they can stemmed the red ink from the Starliner program with a new launch provider, then they will.

Put the Starliner on a cheap reliable launcher and resell the Atlas V flights to Amazon or whoever will pay more. The new cheap reliable launcher will have to be the already crew-rated Falcon 9. The alternate launchers costs more and not much flight history.
NASA may not like that.  There is less dissimilar redundancy.
You don't want your capability to depend on a single untried LV. In 2014 when the CCP contracts were awarded, F9 had no flight history and it would have been risky as a sole LV. Now, F9 has flown more than 200 times and is by some measures the most reliable LV in history. A second LV is no longer needed "for redundancy".

In retrospect, NASA's decision to award CCP contracts to both Boeing and SpaceX was clearly the right thing to do. "Redundant" development saved the program. Redundant development is not the same as redundant operational LVs.

Dragon 2 is completing missions at a steady pace, so the likelihood that Starliner is needed "for redundancy" is diminishing, but with only 18 fights so far, Dragon 2 is not as statistically reliable as F9 yet.

Offline JayWee

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #770 on: 05/26/2023 04:12 pm »
If the Boeing beancounters think they can stemmed the red ink from the Starliner program with a new launch provider, then they will.

Put the Starliner on a cheap reliable launcher and resell the Atlas V flights to Amazon or whoever will pay more. The new cheap reliable launcher will have to be the already crew-rated Falcon 9. The alternate launchers costs more and not much flight history.
NASA may not like that.  There is less dissimilar redundancy.
You don't want your capability to depend on a single untried LV. In 2014 when the CCP contracts were awarded, F9 had no flight history and it would have been risky as a sole LV. Now, F9 has flown more than 200 times and is by some measures the most reliable LV in history. A second LV is no longer needed "for redundancy".

Actually, it came up yesterday:
https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1661852768221511680?s=20

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #771 on: 05/26/2023 04:22 pm »

You don't want your capability to depend on a single untried LV. In 2014 when the CCP contracts were awarded, F9 had no flight history and it would have been risky as a sole LV. Now, F9 has flown more than 200 times and is by some measures the most reliable LV in history. A second LV is no longer needed "for redundancy".

Actually, it came up yesterday:
 [tweet about launch pad availability]
Basically, they don't want to depend on a single point of failure: the Dragon 2 access arm at LC-39A. But it's quicker and cheaper to just add a Dragon 2 access arm at SLC-40. I think this is underway?

Crew Dragon has been operating without redundancy (except Soyuz) for three years. The Shuttle operated without redundancy (except Soyuz) for 30 years.

Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #772 on: 05/26/2023 07:01 pm »
Crew Dragon has been operating without redundancy (except Soyuz) for three years. The Shuttle operated without redundancy (except Soyuz) for 30 years.

Yes, Shuttle did operate without redundancy. There were also 2 multi-year periods where Shuttle was grounded, and the US had no way to launch crew into space because of it. Which is exactly the sort of thing that NASA wants to avoid by having redundant providers.
« Last Edit: 05/26/2023 07:05 pm by JEF_300 »
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline clongton

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #773 on: 05/27/2023 03:56 pm »
Crew Dragon has been operating without redundancy (except Soyuz) for three years. The Shuttle operated without redundancy (except Soyuz) for 30 years.

Yes, Shuttle did operate without redundancy. There were also 2 multi-year periods where Shuttle was grounded, and the US had no way to launch crew into space because of it. Which is exactly the sort of thing that NASA wants to avoid by having redundant providers.

I agree with the desire to have two (2) American crew transportation systems, but we DO already have redundancy. Like it or not (I don't), but Soyuz IS the redundant provider at this time.
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Offline Star One

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #774 on: 05/28/2023 07:59 am »
I know these are different parts of Boeing between it and Starliner, but see how again we’ve got software issues mentioned with the T-7A.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/gao-t-7a-schedule-boeing/
« Last Edit: 05/28/2023 08:00 am by Star One »

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #775 on: 05/28/2023 08:53 am »
I agree with the desire to have two (2) American crew transportation systems, but we DO already have redundancy. Like it or not (I don't), but Soyuz IS the redundant provider at this time.

The problem with Soyuz isn't that it isn't a good spacecraft able to provide redundancy. The problem is that it's used as a propaganda tool. Americans don't even realize how strong the propaganda is, especially in Europe and especially among those countries that historically had strong ties with Russia. The narrative always goes like that "American spaceships broke again and now we, Russians are going to help them. How the hell did they go to the Moon?". Now we even have an ex-Roscosmos leader who publicly doubts Apollo landings.

NASA shouldn't walk back from having two redundant providers, and ESA should finally adopt a politics about an independent access to orbit.

Offline Vettedrmr

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #776 on: 05/28/2023 11:34 am »
I know these are different parts of Boeing between it and Starliner, but see how again we’ve got software issues mentioned with the T-7A.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/gao-t-7a-schedule-boeing/

As one that has experienced the other side of defense software development, take the GAO report with about 5 pounds of salt.  They take minor issues, old data, etc. and validate themselves by writing a typical "the sky is falling" report to submit to congress.
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Offline TJL

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #777 on: 05/28/2023 02:44 pm »
Has the Astronaut Office voiced their opinion regarding an independent review of Starliner issues?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #778 on: 05/28/2023 04:37 pm »
I know these are different parts of Boeing between it and Starliner, but see how again we’ve got software issues mentioned with the T-7A.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/gao-t-7a-schedule-boeing/

As one that has experienced the other side of defense software development, take the GAO report with about 5 pounds of salt.  They take minor issues, old data, etc. and validate themselves by writing a typical "the sky is falling" report to submit to congress.

ASAP is not part of GAO. It is part of NASA.
   https://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap/

Offline mn

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #779 on: 05/28/2023 06:09 pm »
I know these are different parts of Boeing between it and Starliner, but see how again we’ve got software issues mentioned with the T-7A.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/gao-t-7a-schedule-boeing/

As one that has experienced the other side of defense software development, take the GAO report with about 5 pounds of salt.  They take minor issues, old data, etc. and validate themselves by writing a typical "the sky is falling" report to submit to congress.

ASAP is not part of GAO. It is part of NASA.
   https://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap/

He's no doubt referring to the GAO report on the T-7 that he quoted.

 

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