US* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017* ULA announces at least one commercial contractEuropean* Arianespace have no launch failures* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plansRussia* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2016* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year* Proton has no complete failuresChina* China has one launch failure in 2016, without major effect* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is succesful * The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year* KZ-11 flies successfullyInternational* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully * The Indian crewed program is formally authorised* India has more launches than in any previous year, again* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight* All VEX launches are successful* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attemptMisc* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures
(I think you may have slipped a year starting with Russia...)
4. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to LEO and returns it safely.
6. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.
Still lots of "fluffy" predictions in this thread. Not a lot of substance, how about some definitive statements?For example: There'll be X launches this year Company X will experience a failure with rocket B Statements like "SpaceX will launch more than three rockets" is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will launch 3 rockets is a definitive prediction IMHO SpaceX is 30% likely to fail is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will fail is quite a predictionAnother example: Comments like "Chandra will continue investigating X-ray sources" is hugely fluffy.Now that wasn't meant to be snarky or offensive to anyone's post. It's about being less fluffy. Some people have come up with some really good predictions over the last few yearsNow for the snark....A prediction of "A Proton launch will fail this year" is not much of a prediction (I hope that's wrong BTW)
X37 lands in June