Author Topic: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)  (Read 16463 times)

Offline eeergo

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Lawntonlookirs - 4/1/2008 2:50 PM This is my first visit to this site as a registered user, so I am not sure of all of the past comments. I have been trying to see how close asteroid 2007 WD 5 came to the earth. Some of the animated models of the asteroid's path show that it was very close to earth orbit, but it appeared that it didn't make it. Another question is how often they take sightings of 2007 WD5 on its journey to mars. When will they know for sure if it will be a hit or a miss.

Hi, welcome to the site :)

This asteroid is in fact a NEO that doesn't quite intersect our orbit but passes pretty close by In this last encounter, it passed a mere 7 million km away. It does intersect Mars' and the uncertainty in its current orbit, due to a multiple body problem's inherent indetermination but mainly to the few measurements of its position (it's only been discovered a few months ago, when it made its closest approach to Earth) made so far, are what keeps the approx 3% chance of it hitting Mars. In fact, as you can see in this animation, its most probable path doesn't impact the planet (although it's close)

I don't know how long it will take to nail it down, but I wouldn't expect it before one week prior to the intersection date. What also must be interesting is to see the effects of the near-Mars pass, and the new orbit that will appear. Most probably, it will just swing it in a harmless -and boring- way, but there is a chance it will come closer to Earth.

-DaviD-

Offline Lawntonlookirs

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #41 on: 01/04/2008 04:15 pm »
Thanks David:

That was the same animation that I watched yeaterday and it appeared that it was closer than the 7,000,000 km.  I will have to keep an eye open for any new data on 2007 WD 5.
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Offline CessnaDriver

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #42 on: 01/04/2008 08:22 pm »
Is there any guess on what could be observable by amateur backyard astronomers??

Offline pierogoletto

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #43 on: 01/05/2008 02:59 pm »
Could the orbiters (Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Express etc.) observe anything about this asteroid?
Piero Giuseppe Goletto

Offline rdale

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #44 on: 01/05/2008 03:10 pm »
The orbiter cameras are 1) not the type that would be good for deep-space observing and 2) pointed down :>

Offline BigRIJoe

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RE: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #45 on: 01/05/2008 03:11 pm »
I'dnclinede up an SS-18 badboy

Offline Antares

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #46 on: 01/05/2008 03:56 pm »
The cameras don't *have* to be pointed down.  Last year or the year before, one of the orbiters imaged another.  Not sure JPL would want to spend the prop to reorient, though.

How far in advance was it certain that Shoemaker Levy 9 would hit Jupiter?  'Course, that was a bigger target.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline Smatcha

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #47 on: 01/07/2008 07:35 pm »
Anyone know when the next trajectory update is going to happen?
“Do we want to go to the moon or not?”
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Offline psloss

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #48 on: 01/07/2008 09:35 pm »
The Near Earth Object program office update on the 2nd mentioned before seems to imply it's likely to miss:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news154.html

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It seems likely that as additional observations further shrink the uncertainty region of this asteroid, the region will no longer intersect Mars and the impact probability will quickly drop to zero.

Offline Smatcha

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #49 on: 01/07/2008 11:11 pm »
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psloss - 7/1/2008  2:35 PM

The Near Earth Object program office update on the 2nd mentioned before seems to imply it's likely to miss:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news154.html

Quote
It seems likely that as additional observations further shrink the uncertainty region of this asteroid, the region will no longer intersect Mars and the impact probability will quickly drop to zero.

Yes, I read that as well.  But I remember something along the lines of mid to late January for another assessment.    Error range should shrink as it approaches Mars.  I would think that we could confirm that it won’t hit sooner than we could confirm that it will hit.

“Do we want to go to the moon or not?”
John C. Houbolt - November 15, 1961
Question posed in Letter to Dr. Robert C. Seamans Jr, NASA Associate Administrator

Ralph Ellison “I was never more hated than when I tried to be honest”




Offline CommanderAce

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RE: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #50 on: 01/09/2008 07:36 am »
And the odds have decreased  to 1 in 40.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast!

Offline CommanderAce

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RE: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #51 on: 01/10/2008 09:03 am »
and again to 1 in 10000 effectively ruling out any chance of an impact.
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast!

Offline tankmodeler

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RE: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #52 on: 01/10/2008 08:01 pm »
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CommanderAce - 10/1/2008  5:03 AM

and again to 1 in 10000 effectively ruling out any chance of an impact.
Pity. Analysis of the ejecta would probably be worth a couple of Mars landing missions in terms of the indications of water & other materials from deeper in the crust.

Paul
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MDA

Offline RHAnthony

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Re: Mars, asteroid could be on a collision course (Jan 30th)
« Reply #53 on: 01/18/2008 06:26 am »
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Antares - 5/1/2008  8:56 PM

The cameras don't *have* to be pointed down.  Last year or the year before, one of the orbiters imaged another.  Not sure JPL would want to spend the prop to reorient, though.

How far in advance was it certain that Shoemaker Levy 9 would hit Jupiter?  'Course, that was a bigger target.

MRO was used to attempt to spot Mars Global Surveyor when it went dark, so yes they can reorient and take a photo but the chances of getting anything worth looking at would be much too low to stop the imaging they're doing currently on the suface (which makes gorgeous wall paper in their building here at JPL!)


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