A1703/23 - TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUSSIAN MISSILE MAR/APRIL 2023' ESTABLISHED.PSN: 755900N 0212600E - 755000N 0220500E - 753500N 0224700E - 752100N0225200E - 751500N 0221300E - 752400N 0212900E - 753600N 0205100E -755300N 0204300E - (755900N 0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIANMISSILES. GND - UNL, DAILY 1900-2100, 29 MAR 19:00 2023 UNTIL 03 APR 21:00 2023.CREATED: 21 MAR 06:07 2023
I'm not sure why today's newest Russian space launch was mistakenly speculated in some posts on this forum to involve a Soyuz-2.1v before it was carried out, but you were pretty spot on when you pointed out that the coordinates given in the NOTAM for March 23 were consistent with those announced for previous Soyuz-2.1a and Soyuz-2.1b launches.
This is a Soyuz-2 1v - I estimate launch time as 19:40 UTC +/- 20 min.It's aimed towards sun-synchronous orbit with LTDN 11:00 - 11:30.There is a possibility that it is intended to match the orbit plane occupied by Cosmos 2561 & 2562, launched 2022 Oct 21, see: https://www.orbitalfocus.uk/2022#137
A Kosmos reconnaissance satellite is to be launched on 2023-03-29 from Plesetsk, probably between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.Interestingly, it looks like this Kosmos will be launched into the orbit plane of Kosmos 2558, and therefore also the orbit plane of USA 326. USA 326 will pass overhead Plesetsk at around 20:22 UTC.Apparently Kosmos 2558 (53323, 22089A) will get some assistance from another 'Inspektor' satellite for further inspection of USA 326 (51445, 22009A).
Convention with Plesetsk NOTAMs is that lift off occurs within the first 60 mins when the window is two hours long. This 'rule' is unbroken since 2014. A 19:00-21:00 NOTAM points to lift off 19:00-20:00. It doesn't rule out 20:25 but…Beware of wishful thinking!
"В расчетное время космический аппарат выведен на целевую орбиту и принят на управление. С космическим аппаратом установлена и поддерживается устойчивая телеметрическая связь"
Kosmos 2568 launched 4 minutes before Starlink 5-10, so both were enroute to orbit at the same time. I think this is the first time this has ever happened.
Cosmos 2568Mar 29, 19:57 UTCSoyuz-2 1VPlesetsk SCLaunch time of day similar to Cosmos 2560, 2555 & 2551 - all of them re-entered naturally after a few weeks without orbital manoeuvres.LTDN ~19:37
Just minutes before SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral, Russia launched a Soyuz-2.1v from Plesetsk carrying a classified payload.Article by Justin Mooney (@OGNovuh):
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045
https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266QuoteCelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/30/2023 01:48 amhttps://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266QuoteCelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045The orbital parameters for the Kosmos 2568 are similar to those for the Kosmos 2555, furthering corroborating the probable ID of Kosmos 2568 as EMKA 4.
The Volga wasn't mentioned either in the official reports on the Kosmos-2561/2562 launch last October (the latest Soyuz-2-1v launch with the upper stage), so it's too early to conclude that today's launch didn't carry the upper stage. We'll just have to wait for the TLEs to find out. It'll also be interesting to see if there is any connection between this mission and Kosmos-2558 or Kosmos-2562, whose orbital planes were close to Plesetsk at the time of launch.