Author Topic: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date  (Read 14058 times)

Offline Jim

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Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« on: 11/08/2021 07:35 pm »
June 16th
« Last Edit: 11/08/2021 07:36 pm by Jim »

Offline tenkendojo

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #1 on: 11/08/2021 08:02 pm »
Just did a quick linear regression line plot on the napkin, looks like the announced date and launch date line intersect somewhere around first half of 2022. I'll just go with April 2nd, 2022 then.

Offline Yggdrasill

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #2 on: 11/08/2021 08:09 pm »
March 14th.

Edit: 2022, BTW...
« Last Edit: 11/08/2021 08:10 pm by Yggdrasill »

Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #3 on: 11/08/2021 08:33 pm »

Did issues arise during modal testing?

If yes, Iíd venture Q3 2022, at the earliest, to Q2 2023.

If not, whatever the program currently says, plus weather.
« Last Edit: 11/09/2021 01:17 am by VSECOTSPE »

Offline RotoSequence

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #4 on: 11/08/2021 08:45 pm »
July 4

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #5 on: 11/08/2021 08:45 pm »
I'm going to guess that things will go unusually smoothly with a successful launch in the last days of the  February launch window.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #6 on: 11/08/2021 08:53 pm »
April or May 2022.
« Last Edit: 11/08/2021 08:53 pm by Orbiter »
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Offline Stan-1967

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #7 on: 11/08/2021 09:40 pm »
March 15th, 2022. 


"Beware the Ides of March"
« Last Edit: 11/09/2021 08:22 pm by Stan-1967 »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #8 on: 11/08/2021 11:36 pm »
June 16th

Maybe change this to a poll of what month it will launch? Then put the day of the month in your response?

I'd be interested to see which month has the most responses...
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Offline woods170

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #9 on: 11/09/2021 06:47 pm »
April 20th, 2022.

Offline Joseph Peterson

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #10 on: 11/09/2021 07:54 pm »
Since I don't actually have a clue I decided to look up a list of national days.  While there are many intriguing possibilities I'm going to go with April 15th, National Take A Wild Guess Day.

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #11 on: 11/09/2021 08:08 pm »
I'm guessing my birthday (already picked by a prescient poster above), and I will announce when that is if I am right.  Chiefly, however, I am looking forward to the choices of those of us (and there were many) who used to insist that SLS would never get off the ground.

Offline gbl

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #12 on: 11/12/2021 12:22 pm »
LP 21, more specifically, May 14, 2022.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #13 on: 11/12/2021 01:05 pm »
April 12, 2022  ;)
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Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #14 on: 11/13/2021 05:40 am »

I wrote this in late August 2014:

Quote
The confidence level in the new November 2018 date for the first launch of SLS (EM-1) is only 70%. This means that the project has about a 1-in-3 chance of slipping to 2019 or later, assuming no issues not already worked into the estimate crop up.

The project was started in 2011, and the 2010 NASA Authorization Act required SLS to launch by 2016. It is now four years later, and the likely launch date for EM-1 has slipped to 2018 or later, a slip of two years in the first launch of SLS. Thatís one year of schedule slippage for every two years that the project has existed. If the SLS schedule continues to slip at this rate over the next four years, the date of the first SLS launch will slip from 2018 to 2020. And then from 2018 to 2020, SLS will slip one more year or so before finally launching for the first time somewhere in the 2021-2022 timeframe.

Sometimes the simplest analysis is the most accurate.

Offline Surfdaddy

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #15 on: 11/13/2021 06:41 am »
June 16th
What year?
Well, it COULD slip a lot...

Offline Overwatchfan123

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #16 on: 11/13/2021 09:21 am »
June 16th
What year?
Well, it COULD slip a lot...

2022, I think, given the situation.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2021 09:22 am by Overwatchfan123 »
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #17 on: 11/13/2021 05:10 pm »
May 13th, 2022

It uses the 1 day of slip for every 2 days of work. Which for the current scheduled launch date 91 days away compounded gives a result of 181 days from today.

BTW May 13th is a Friday. Sounds appropriate.

Offline Overwatchfan123

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #18 on: 11/13/2021 05:40 pm »
What a coincidence, right? Friday the 13th? Let's just hope that Freddy Krueger won't be there to do anything bad, right? Ha ha!
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Online AS_501

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Re: Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date
« Reply #19 on: 11/13/2021 09:28 pm »
March 12, 2022.  Reasoning?  None
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

 

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