SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[ZachF]

DV adjusted payload tally for 2023 YTD:
(Year is ~37% complete)


445,245 (31x)  United States
445,245 (31x)  SpaceX
82,930 (18x)  China
39,606 (6x)  Russia
17,075 (1x)  Europe
7,517 (3x)  India
3,683 (1x)  Japan
455 (4x)  New Zealand
350 (1x)  Israel

597,749 (64x)  Earth

SpaceX is currently equal to the rest of the world combined times three. They’re currently on pace for a 1,200t adjusted value, which is more than Ariane or ULA have done in the last decade, they’ve already beaten the rest of the world total for last year…


Just to put into context how nuts these numbers are, the total lifetime sums for China and Europe’s entire space programs since their inception are 2,193t and 3,201t respectively.

[kevin-rf]

Are you counting the two Electron launches from Wallops under New Zealand? Still insane that almost all "US" launches so far this year have been  by SpaceX.

Assuming you are using Kg in the first table?

[ZachF]

Are you counting the two Electron launches from Wallops under New Zealand? Still insane that almost all "US" launches so far this year have been  by SpaceX.

Assuming you are using Kg in the first table?

Yes.

And its kg adjusted for delta V difference from LEO using the ISP of a hypergolic orbit raise engine. For instance a Falcon 9 launching a 5,500kg satellite to GTO-1800 would count as a 12,206kg payload in this metric.

[kevin-rf]

I was just looking at pads. What is more crazy? For 2023, globally 24% of all launches have been from SLC-40.

[wannamoonbase]

I was just looking at pads. What is more crazy? For 2023, globally 24% of all launches have been from SLC-40.

Wow, crazy stat.

SLC-40 and SLC-41 are very robust pads, their locations, size and flame trench have stood the test of time.


Edit: As impressive as SLC-40 has been, it seems there has been a little room to add more flights if the ASDS were available.

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>
Edit: As impressive as SLC-40 has been, it seems there has been a little room to add more flights if the ASDS were available.

That really means another ship set of the SpaceX East Coast booster recovery fleet. Like one more ASDS barge, another multiple purpose recovery ship and another tug. As it is now, SpaceX is betting on no unscheduled downtime for any of their boats and barges to maintain the current launch cadence.

[JayWee]

We should also give massive props to the range for supporting the flight rate.

[crandles57]

Late May June schedule

~ approx NET date, and ? = extra uncertainty re date or mission

Scheduled to launch in May:
May 19 CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG       Starlink 6-3
May 19 Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4        Iridium Flight 9/OneWeb Flight 19
May 21 KSC LC-39A       LZ-1        Axiom-2
May ~24 CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS      Badr-8
May~29? Vand SLC-4E     OCISLY   Starlink 2-10

Jun 3 CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 6-4
May ~30

Jun 3 KSC LC-39A       ASDS   SpX-28
Jun 8 Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4    Transporter-8

Jun ~11 40/39A?       ASDS     O3b mPower 5&6
maybe now ~7 Jun midway between May ~30 and Jun 14
Jun 14   40/39A?       ASDS?    Satria-1

Is there time to convert 39A for Falcon Heavy format for July 7 USSF-52 after June 11? If not, one of the above two might have to slip with both East coast drone ships needed for Jun 3 launches

Other possible June missions, presumably NET mid June include:

SDA Transport & tracking Tranche 0 flight 2 (V)
Sarah 2&3 (V)
Starlink 5-7 (V)
Starlink 5-11
Starlink 6-5

Less likely possibilities

Astranis (mid 2023)
Worldview Legion 1&2 (Summer 2023)
Starlink 6-6+

Plenty of Vandenberg launches to get through. Needs everything to go smoothly to achieve 9 launches in each of May and June, but it seems like they are aiming for that sort of rate.

Edit so much for that commentary, 10 in May looking possible

[M.E.T.]

Is there a specific reason that there appears to be only one more Starlink flight listed in the Manifest for the rest of 2023? Or is it merely a case of “we don’t know when they will launch until they tell us?”

[crandles57]

We know dates for 6-4 30 May and 5-11 12 June. 2-10 could be around May 30/31.
per https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX


There are lots more here in the paperwork thread
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.540

including 6-5 through 6-14, 6-16 through 6-18,  5-8, 5-13, 6-15, 6-20, 6-22, 6-23
but the dates and order are unclear just a 6 month period for the FCC communication licences. Putting these in would just cause lots of juggling of order so it doesn't make sense to put them in.

2-2 licence may have expired? so perhaps that should be removed and 6-4 2-10 and 5-11 ought to be in the manifest, they will probably get there with the next update.

[mandrewa]

Is there a specific reason that there appears to be only one more Starlink flight listed in the Manifest for the rest of 2023? Or is it merely a case of “we don’t know when they will launch until they tell us?”

There are a lot of Starlink groups ready and waiting to go. 

And there is a list of paying customers whose payloads are supposed to be ready to go. For instance at this moment Astranis, WorldView Legion Flight 1, SDA Tranche 0 Flight 2, and Sarah 2/3 are nominally supposed to launch in June.  Or that's the official word.  Or there hasn't been an official acknowledgement from anyone responsible for these payloads that they are not going to launch in June.

And that's where the dates on gongora's manifest come from.  Or so I infer.  It's what the people responsible for the payloads say.  It's not someone else's estimate of probability.

Now if gongora was treating the Starlink groups in the same way, there would be a big bulge of Starlink groups listed for June that would include every group that is ready to go.  And gongora used to do that.  And it would include at this point more groups than could possibly be launched in June.

Now if one of the four customer payloads that are nominally intended for June, that hasn't been actually scheduled for launch, was to resolve whatever issue is holding it back, SpaceX would immediately put it in on the schedule.  But if a certain date passes and nothing is ready, then a Starlink group is scheduled for launch instead.

And that's why the schedule of Starlink launches is so unpredictable.  It is literally changing week by week.

But the idea is obvious.  If something else isn't ready, then a Starlink group will launch.

[zubenelgenubi]

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated May 23:

Upcoming [June] launches include more Starlink batches.

[Orbiter]

There's a pretty decent gap between CRS-28 and the next Falcon Heavy... any chance SpaceX might be able to squeeze in a Starlink or two in June from 39A?

[zubenelgenubi]

LC-39A logistics:

SFN Axiom’s second crew mission has narrow window for launch, May 20, Stephen Clark

It takes SpaceX about three weeks to reconfigure the launch pad from a Falcon Heavy mission to a crew flight on a Falcon 9 rocket.
<snip>
There is a period of high sun angle on the space station in early July, so NASA wants the [iROSA] solar array work complete by then. That will be followed by the scheduled July 21 launch of Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule on its first crewed test flight to the station. SpaceX also plans more launches of its Falcon Heavy rocket for the U.S. Space Force and a commercial customer this summer from pad 39A, and SpaceX’s next NASA-contracted crew flight is scheduled for launch from pad 39A is planned in August.

Re: Falcon 9/Dragon to Falcon 9/Dragon at LC-39A appears to be approximately two weeks.  Ex: Axiom-2 to SpX-28 is scheduled currently to be 13 days.

[zubenelgenubi]

Looking ahead at June; I've included some of my deductions and inferences, marking them with question marks:

Launched in June:
Jun 4     CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI        Starlink 6-4
Jun 5     KSC LC-39A        ASOG     SpX-28
Jun 12   CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI       Starlink 5-11
Jun 12   Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4       Transporter-8
Jun 18   CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     PSN Satria
Jun 22   Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 5-7
Jun 23   CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI        Starlink 5-12

Scheduled to launch in June:
X

Seven launches in June.

Single asterisk = SLC-40 launch opportunity between June 10 9 and June 20 19?

One or two SLC-40 launch opportunities in the last third of June?

Opinion: I think no more not-Starlink Falcon 9 launches will solidify in the last days of June.

Scheduled to launch in July:
Jul 1 early                                                                 CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG              Euclid
NET Jul 2 NET Jul                                                   Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY            Starlink 5-13
NET Jul 8 NET Jul                                                   CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI                Starlink 5-15
NET Jul 13 NET mid? Jun late? Jun NET Jul 6  CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG              Starlink 6-5
NET mid Jul 15                                                       CCSFS SLC-40    ASDS               Galaxy 37
NET mid Jul NET Jul                                               Vand SLC-4E     OCISLY            Starlink 6-15
NET mid Jul? NET Jul                                             CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS              Starlink 6-6
late Jul mid? Jun NET late Jun Q3                       Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4                 SDA T&TL Tranche 0 Flight 2
NET late Jul? NET Jul                                             CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS              Starlink 6-9
TBD/NET Jul Jun 9                                                 CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS               O3b mPower 5/6
Aug 8 NET Jul                                                          KSC LC-39A       LZ-1 & LZ-2    Jupiter 3 USSF-52
NET early Jul NET end of Jun?   SLC-4E    OCISLY   Starlink 5-8

Edited through late May and June.

[Alexphysics]

Updated nextspaceflight with 18 new entries, all upcoming Starlink missions for which SpaceX has filed FCC permits. I wouldn't pay too much attention on what month each one is placed on, I mostly tried to spread them out considering each coast launch cadence and current commercial launch manifest. Even with only a handful of commercial missions, it's so many Starlink missions that, even taking into acount extremely good pad turnarounds, some of these go all the way to October. The order is also kinda arbitrary, I'll admit, but we have no idea how the order will be. For all we know Starlink Group 6-17 could be the next Group 6 mission after Starlink Group 6-4 but for now we don't know so it's sent to end of the list so to speak. Anyhoo, it's something that can be easily changed once we get an idea of the actual order of missions, certainly not the end of world. At least the entries are there and we don't have to make a new one every time, just modify existing ones.

[kevin-rf]

Shame they don't have an extra West Coast barge. It would let SLC-4E achieve a launch tempo on par with SLC-40. With the lower commercial demand,  SLC-4E would also be mostly Starlink missions.

[AC in NC]

Forgive me.  I have little time to keep up-to-date.  What's up with Arabsat BADR-8 Return indicator?  Typo or anomaly or ...?

2023-05-27  0030/-4   F9   1062-14   .   Arabsat BADR-8   GTO   4.5k   C-40   .   .   .

[gongora]

Just an oversight

[wannamoonbase]

Shame they don't have an extra West Coast barge. It would let SLC-4E achieve a launch tempo on par with SLC-40. With the lower commercial demand,  SLC-4E would also be mostly Starlink missions.

I love VSFB flights but I think they would run out of high inclination Starlink flights pretty quickly at that flight cadence. 

I think they currently are only licensed for 30 west coast lights per year.  Which has always seemed unattainable until recently.