Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?

[deltaV]

So who will the winners of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) phase 3 lane 2 competition be? Lane 2 is the national security procurement for the highest-value missions where you have to do all the orbits (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2507835#msg2507835) to be eligible to win anything. The previous competition (phase 2) had ULA in 1st place and SpaceX in 2nd place. (This poll is NOT about the lower value lane 1, which the DOD has already announced that Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA are competing for this year: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2600758#msg2600758.)

This poll will be judged 24 hours after the initial announcement of winners, so GAO protests, lawsuits, and other later changes to the winners don't count.

"1st" means the biggest share (probably "60%"), "2nd" the second biggest share (probably "40%"), "3rd" the third biggest share (a few missions). [Edit: A winner has to be planned to receive at least 1 lane 2 launches to count as a winner. Being listed in the source selection document or press conference in a particular place isn't enough if no launches are expected.]

It appears only Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA are still being considered (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2555098#msg2555098) but I included "not listed above" options just in case.

The DOD's goal appears to be three winners but I've given options for any number of winners.

[deltaV]

I voted SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd. I think SpaceX will beat ULA this time because the years of Vulcan delays will hurt ULA's past performance rating more than the 3 Falcon anomalies this year will hurt SpaceX's past performance rating.

[sstli2]

I don't see a compelling case for any other outcome besides SpaceX, ULA, Blue. Seems really obvious to me.

ULA lost their chance to win when they failed to scale Vulcan quickly enough and Blue is getting in because they really want 3 options.

[AmigaClone]

If the winner of NSSL phase 3 lane 2 came down to launch vehicles I can see SpaceX first with ULA and Blue Origin taking the next two slots.

If politics play a bigger part in the selection process than the capability and availability of the launch vehicles then I can see SpaceX getting third place at least initially.

[DanClemmensen]

I voted for what I think ought to happen. I have no idea what will actually happen.

ULA 1st, SpaceX 2nd, no 3rd.

In a true competition, It should just be SpaceX, winner take all. However, a primary goal of NSSL is to maintain at least two competitors, and ULA is still the best alternative provider. But to remain viable, ULA needs 60% of NSSL, not just 40%. In a fair world, ULA would be down-rated and penalized because they failed to deliver Vulcan Centaur on time for Phase 2, but this would not achieve the objective. Awarding any launches to BO would take them away from ULA (who needs them) or SpaceX (who deserves them), and also would reward BO even though they were a major contributor to the Vulcan delay. USSF also learned that awarding launches to a rocket that is not yet certified is a bad idea.

[deltaV]

If politics play a bigger part in the selection process than the capability and availability of the launch vehicles then I can see SpaceX getting third place at least initially.

The only circumstances where I see Blue Origin coming in above SpaceX is if SpaceX messes up and bids Starship instead of Falcon or bids crazy high. In other circumstances putting Blue Origin above SpaceX would just invite a protest or lawsuit.

USSF also learned that awarding launches to a rocket that is not yet certified is a bad idea.

Yeah. In lane 1 there's a rule that you won't get assigned any specific payloads until after a successful non-DOD launch. I like this policy since maiden launches are usually years late. I don't know if lane 2 has a similar policy; if not it probably should.

[sstli2]

Any speculation of SpaceX coming in third is absurd. Yet somehow 2 people voted for it. The military is not an overtly political body.

The only real question mark here is whether Blue gets the third spot. I believe they will because they have a credible plan to qualify as soon as spring 2025 and Lane 2 only requires qualification by the end of 2026, 2 years from now.

P.S. If you voted for SpaceX third, let's make a bet, I will gladly bet $10k, and take your money.

[Tywin]

I voted SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd. I think SpaceX will beat ULA this time because the years of Vulcan delays will hurt ULA's past performance rating more than the 3 Falcon anomalies this year will hurt SpaceX's past performance rating.

I would vote for this option if it inclued Rocket Lab as fourth place...

[dglow]

Any speculation of SpaceX coming in third is absurd. Yet somehow 2 people voted for it. The military is not an overtly political body.

Beg to differ: the military is extremely political, it's just separate from civilian politics.
One can argue the military is a four-party system: Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines. 

_{(sorry, Space Force – you're still the orbital wing of the Air Force party)}

[DeimosDream]

Spacex > ULA > Blue Origin.
54% / 36% / 10% ?

Very confident Blue Origin is getting 3rd place. Third appears to be little more than eligibility to receive "launch service support funding" to retain/develop capability to be a credible competition for NSSL Phase 4, but there appears to be too much political pressure to ensure all three get something for Blue to get left out.

SpaceX vs ULA is tougher to judge, but I think/hope SpaceX edges ahead this time around.

[AmigaClone]

Any speculation of SpaceX coming in third is absurd. Yet somehow 2 people voted for it. The military is not an overtly political body.

Beg to differ: the military is extremely political, it's just separate from civilian politics.
One can argue the military is a four-party system: Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines. 

_{(sorry, Space Force – you're still the orbital wing of the Air Force party)}

While the military is not as political as some organizations,  it's source of funding (Congress) is extremely political.

[deltaV]

I voted SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd.

I would vote for this option if it inclued Rocket Lab as fourth place...

"4+ winners" is your option then. BTW in case this isn't obvious a winner has to be planned to receive at least 1 lane 2 launches to count as a winner. Being 4th place in the source selection document isn't enough.