Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Kosmos-2595 (Glonass-K 18) - 13 September 2025 (02:10 UTC)  (Read 61821 times)

Offline jcm

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If Mozhaets-6 is of a similar Strela-1M type design to the earlier Mozhaets, it would use a gravity boom to stabilize, and might well be tumbling for the first few weeks until that is fully deployed.

There are illustrations of Mozhayets-6 in Reply 13. No sign of a gravity boom. It doesn't look there is any commonality with the earlier satellites, which were launched more than 20 years ago and built in cooperation with PO Polyot in Omsk. It's not yet clear who the Mozhaiskiy Academy's industrial partner for this one is.

Yeah, good point.  Forget I said anything :-)
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Online StraumliBlight

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Aldoria Linkedin [Sep 19]

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One of ALDORIAs telescopes observed the satellite Kosmos-2595 on 14 September 2025, confirming a stable path in medium Earth orbit (MEO).

Offline GWR64

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Is there any official confirmation yet regarding the launch of GLONASS-K 18?
not there: https://glonass-iac.ru/glonass/sostavOG/
I find this secrecy surrounding the launch of a GLONASS satellite ridiculous. GLONASS is also used for civilian purposes, so they'll share its existence and exact orbit later anyway—that's just how satellite navigation systems work.
The latest TLE data are already 5 days old. The satellite had already performed maneuvers and was drifting towards orbital slot 20. What happened after that, of course, remains unknown.

Slot 20 ... 21
at N2YO
« Last Edit: 09/22/2025 01:37 pm by GWR64 »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Is there any official confirmation yet regarding the launch of GLONASS-K 18?
not there: https://glonass-iac.ru/glonass/sostavOG/
I find this secrecy surrounding the launch of a GLONASS satellite ridiculous. GLONASS is also used for civilian purposes, so they'll share its existence and exact orbit later anyway—that's just how satellite navigation systems work.
The latest TLE data are already 5 days old. The satellite had already performed maneuvers and was drifting towards orbital slot 20. What happened after that, of course, remains unknown.

Slot 20 ... 21
at N2YO

The MoD's silence on the nature of the payload is all the more ridicilous considering the fact that it was identified as Glonass-K 18L in rocket stage impact warnings issued by local authorities prior to launch. Moreover, Roscosmos director Dmitriy Bakanov confirmed it was a Glonass not long after the launch. Not a word on it though in the Glonass newsletter "Vestnik Glonass" and on the Glonass mission control website that you mention, although we should see it appear there eventually.

The sparse TLE updates do not apply only to Glonass-K 18L. USSPACECOM has been experiencing issues with TLE updates for weeks:

Quote
Our data provider is aware of the current issue with some basic orbital data not reaching space-track.org as expected. They have identified the problem and are actively working on a resolution but do not have an estimated time to return to full capacity. Space Forces-Space (S4S) will continue spaceflight safety screenings and resolve any high priority events directly.

SpaceTrack did update the Cosmos numbers. Glonass is now identified as Kosmos-2595 (but remains the B object) and object A (what must be Mozhayets-6) is now called Kosmos-2596. Even though object A has been catalogued, not a single TLE has been published for it yet, so we still can't tell for sure if it is the tumbling object that was spotted in the vicinity of Glonass by ground-based telescopes last week. Both the Ministry of Defense and the Mozhaiskiy Academy reported in the hours after launch that Mozhayets-6 had been taken under control, but if it is indeed tumbling, that could be a sign of trouble. 

The Mozhaiskiy Academy has not posted any further updates on Mozhayets-6's mission since the launch. It did report on September 15 that cadets of the academy had participated in preparations for the launch. They had also taken part in check-outs of an Angara-1.2 rocket at Plesetsk, meaning that at least one of those is currently being prepared for launch in the coming weeks or months.



Offline GWR64

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Newer data for the satellite. The orbital period is slightly shorter than before. (faster drift)
But! The inclination has changed from 64.8 to 67.8 degrees. Huh? Is that correct?

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2025-206

P.S. CelesTrak now lists it as Cosmos 2596. That doesn't matter anymore.
« Last Edit: 09/25/2025 10:51 am by GWR64 »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Newer data for the satellite. The orbital period is slightly shorter than before. (faster drift)
But! The inclination has changed from 64.8 to 67.8 degrees. Huh? Is that correct?

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2025-206

Must be a mistake. Not the first one lately.
Space-Track's satellite catalog now even gives an inclination of 68.24°, even though it is given as 67.84° in the corresponding TLE set. Perigee and apogee are also weird: 18,463x19,639 km.

And still no data for Mozhayets-6 almost two weeks after launch. If it's really in the same orbit as Glonass, why is it taking so long for it to be found?

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Space-Track's satellite catalog now even gives an inclination of 68.24°, even though it is given as 67.84° in the corresponding TLE set. Perigee and apogee are also weird: 18,463x19,639 km.

Looks like that mistake has now been corrected:
18,984x19,138 km, 64.79°

The perigee is still quite low for a Glonass.

Offline GWR64

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Space-Track's satellite catalog now even gives an inclination of 68.24°, even though it is given as 67.84° in the corresponding TLE set. Perigee and apogee are also weird: 18,463x19,639 km.

Looks like that mistake has now been corrected:
18,984x19,138 km, 64.79°

The perigee is still quite low for a Glonass.

The satellite is still drifting. If it is indeed supposed to be placed on slot 20, then that will change soon.
« Last Edit: 09/27/2025 10:43 am by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

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Glonass K 708 is now on the status page. Slot 20 confirmed.
https://glonass-iac.ru/en/sostavOG/

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Glonass K 708 is now on the status page. Slot 20 confirmed.
https://glonass-iac.ru/en/sostavOG/

The latest US data (10 days old) now show object B (Kosmos-2595)  in an unusual 18,315 x 19,978 km orbit. Could be another mistake.

Meanwhile, almost a month after the launch USSPACECOM has still not given any TLEs for object A (Kosmos-2596/Mozhaets-6). It does seem to have appeared in a catalog of high-orbiting objects published by MAK Vympel, a company that oversees Russia's space surveillance system.

https://x.com/shell_jim/status/1975059069938626965
 
Quote
The orbits of two space objects of some significance have just become publicly available for the first time (courtesy of Russia's JSC Vimpel space object catalog).
 
  1️⃣ The PRC YZ-1 upper stage used to inject Shiyan-29 (SY-29, 65486 / 2025-196A) into an inclined geosynchronous orbit and
  2️⃣ COSMOS 2596, a microsat accompanying a Russian Glonass launch on 13 Sep 2025
...
COSMOS 2596 was launched into a medium earth orbit (MEO) on 13 Sep 2025 and is in the US catalog as SATNO 65589 / 2025-206A. It was a secondary payload to COSMOS 2595, a Russian Glonass satellite. However, there have been no element sets publicly released. The significance? COSMOS 2596, also known as Mozhayets-6, appears to be a microsat and has the lowest optical signature of any satellite to date in MEO. It has an optical signature of 16.6 Mv (normalized to 40,000 km range and zero degree solar phase). This translates into an optical cross section of 0.17 m2 or an effective diameter of 0.47 m assuming a standard albedo/reflectance of 0.2.

I suspect the lack of COSMOS 2596 orbital data on space-track.org may be related to the ongoing "current issue with some basic orbital data not reaching space-track.org as expected" per the home page.

It has number 67618 in the MAK Vympel catalog. Although it is not identified in the catalog as either Kosmos-2596 or Mozhayets-6, it is clearly one of the three objects placed into orbit on September 13 (the others being Glonass and the Fregat upper stage). It is in a similar orbit and is most likely the object photographed by S2A Systems in the vicinity of Glonass on September 14 (see Reply 15).

S2A Systems reported the object was tumbling, a possible sign of trouble. However, a report from the Mozhaiskiy Academy aired by a local TV station in St. Petersburg on October 1 suggests the satellite is functioning normally. It said students of the academy were tracking it and receiving the first data from it.
https://tvspb.ru/news/2025/10/1/put-k-zvezdam-kursanty-akademii-imeni-mozhajskogo-gotovyat-k-poletam-rakety-nositeli

A shot of a computer screen in the Academy's mission control center shows various parameters of Glonass, GPS, Beidou and Galileo navigation satellites. As mentioned earlier here, one of the objectives of Mozhayets-6 is to "study the navigation field in medium-Earth orbits" and see how it affects orbit corrections made by the satellite.



Offline GWR64

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The latest US data (10 days old) now show object B (Kosmos-2595)  in an unusual 18,315 x 19,978 km orbit. Could be another mistake.


The inclination was also 58 degrees at one point. That's why I stopped commenting on this nonsense.
But now, finally, we have meaningful orbit data from Glonass K 708!

675.74 min. 64.78 deg. 19,164 x 19,096 km, near Glonass-M 719

Offline GWR64

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Glonass-K 708 is in operation.
Quote
053-251016
NOTICE ADVISORY TO GLONASS USERS (NAGU) 053-251016
SUBJ:28/07 (719) SC ON RESEARCH OF THE GENERAL DESIGNER
1.CONDITION: 28/07 SC 719  ON RESEARCH OF THE GENERAL DESIGNER 16.10.2025 12:14:55
2.USERS ARE REMINDED TO UPDATE ALMANACS IF NECESSARY


054-251016
NOTICE ADVISORY TO GLONASS USERS (NAGU) 054-251016
SUBJ:20/02 (708) SC ON STAGE OF ACTION
1.CONDITION: 20/02 SC 708 ON STAGE OF ACTION 16.10.25/0000
2.USERS ARE REMINDED TO UPDATE ALMANACS IF NECESSARY


055-251016
NOTICE ADVISORY TO GLONASS USERS (NAGU) 055-251016
SUBJ:20/02 (708) PUT INTO OPERATION 16.10.25/1320
1.CONDITION: 20/02 (708)  PUT INTO OPERATION 16.10.25/1320 MSK (UTC+0300)
2.USERS ARE REMINDED TO UPDATE ALMANACS IF NECESSARY


https://glonass-iac.ru/en/sostavOG/

Glonass-M 719 is now "ON RESEARCH OF THE GENERAL DESIGNER."
With almost 18 years of service since launch, 719 has the longest service life of any Glonass satellite to date.
Until the end, it transmitted L1 and L2 signals.

PS: The eccentricity values (among others) ​​of Glonass-K 708 from US space tracking and in the Glonass Almanac don't match again. What's going on here?
« Last Edit: 10/16/2025 06:30 pm by GWR64 »

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The Lost Satellite: Inside Slingshot’s Hunt for Russia's Mozhayets-6 [Nov 13]

Quote
Shortly after the launch – identified as 2025-206 – initial orbit data was made available in the US public catalog for both the rocket upper stage (FREGAT R/B, NORAD 65591) and the GLONASS payload (COSMOS 2595, NORAD 65590). The GLONASS object was in medium Earth orbit (MEO) at an altitude of approximately 19,100 km, but no data was published for Mozhayets-6 apart from the assignment of a NORAD ID and a name (officially COSMOS 2596, NORAD 65589). After five weeks without orbital data posted in the US public catalog, Slingshot set out to help locate this missing object.

A post on X from s2a systems on 14 September 2025, shortly after launch, included imagery that showed a dim object adjacent to the GLONASS payload. Slingshot analysts hypothesized this was likely Mozhayets-6, indicating that the two payloads were deployed into the same orbital plane. Additional information on Mozhayets-6, from Slingshot’s Seradata database, indicated the mass of the satellite was around 100 kg. Slingshot’s research and development (R&D) team leveraged these facts to estimate the expected brightness and reduced the search volume. The results indicated an expected brightness between 15th – 17th visual magnitude (mv). The signature would be dim, but well within the limits of Slingshot’s gimbaled telescope systems. Based on that same estimated mass, Slingshot astrodynamicists further hypothesized that Mozhayets-6 would not have been able to maneuver far out of plane from COSMOS 2595. 

The Slingshot Global Sensor Network (SGSN) was subsequently tasked to scan this refined search volume. Within hours, gimbaled telescopes located at Slingshot’s sites in Spain and Morocco established a set of uncorrelated tracks on an object within that search volume. An uncorrelated track (UCT) is a sequence of observations that does not match an orbital state associated with catalogued objects, either within the US public catalog or within Slingshot’s commercial catalog. 

Using the observations collected during this search, orbital analysts performed initial orbit determination (IOD) through Slingshot’s Multi-Frame Assignment Space Tracker (MFAST) software. The subsequent solution was used to task further collections from multiple global telescope systems. This led to additional simultaneous collections by SGSN sensors, confirming the existence of the unidentified object. The object’s orbit seemed to be closely aligned with the predicted orbital plane of Mozhayets-6.

https://twitter.com/s2a_systems/status/1967230136878760290

Quote
COSMOS 2596 [GLONASS-K1], recorded today, 2025-09-14 12:41:00 UTC, accompanied by a fainter, tumbling object in train.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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A Space Force official hints at the possible stealthy nature of Mozhayets-6.

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/12/china-russia-experiment-with-stealthy-satellites-space-force-official-says/

Quote
China, Russia experiment with stealthy satellites, Space Force official says

China and Russia are experimenting with stealth technologies aimed at making it harder for radar and telescopes to find their satellites, according to a senior Space Force official.

“In years past, we’ve talked about this cat and mouse game that was happening at GEO [geosynchronous Earth orbit] — Chinese, Russian, US satellite, sort of stalking each other. This past year has really been more of a hide and seek game that we’ve seen at LEO [low Earth orbit],” Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch, senior enlisted advisor to the deputy chief of space operations for intelligence, said today.
...
Meanwhile, Russia “very recently” orbited an experimental satellite with very low visibility called Mozhayets in medium Earth orbit (MEO), Lerch said.

“What’s fascinating about the Mozhayets is that it has a very, very low visual magnitude. Just to give you some context, the Sun is a negative 26 visual magnitude. So, a negative or a lower number, the brighter. In other words … when you go to a positive number, that means that it’s dimmer,” he said. “So GPS satellites at MEO, they’ve got about a 6.5 visual magnitude. This Mozhayets satellite the Russians put up to MEO was at about a 16 for visual magnitude, very difficult to see.”

Lerch credited commercial firms for helping the Space Force identify and track these increasingly stealthy satellites, noting that without commercial data it would be impossible to discuss their activities in an unclassified environment.

According to Lerch’s slides, LeoLabs provided the information about the Shiyan birds, and Slingshot about the Mozhayets. Indeed, Slingshot actually found the Mozhayets before the Space Force did — at least publicly — according to a Nov. 17 company press release.

The Mozhayets-6, built by Russia’s Mozhaisky Military Space Academy, was launched on Sept. 13 as a rideshare on a new Russian GLONASS positioning, navigation and timing satellite, the release explained. But it spend five weeks lost in space, at least to the Space Force’s public database of on-orbit objects, Slingshot said.

There are still no orbit data for Mozhayets-6 in the public catalog.

Offline jcm

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As far as I know we don't know how big Mozhaets-6 is. Based on the illustration seems to me it could plausibly be
of the order of an 8U cubesat, so cross-sectional area around 0.1 sq m compared to the of order 50 - 100 sq m of a GPS sat with solar panels deployed. Therefore at the same reflectivity you would expect it to be 7 to  7.5 mag fainter. The claim is it is 9.5 mag fainter, so 2 to 2.5 mag or a factor of order 10 times fainter than you'd expect. I'm not sure what the range in shininess of typical satellites is,
but this doesn't seem dramatic - e.g. well within the brightness variation range of a Starlink at various orientations.

I am therefore not convinced that Mozhaets-6 is stealthy. It may just be tiny.

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