Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Kosmos-2576/Bureau 1440/Zorkiy-2M/SITRO-AIS - Plesetsk - 16 May 2024 21:21:39

[jcm]

No NOTAM for a 4th stage deorbit, right?
We may see more objects cataloged today, but if not, perhaps the orbit insertion was done by the
satellite's own propulsion?  (like the US-A EORSATs back in the day)

I think this is the basis for speculation of upper stage used?

This is also standard for a Soyuz-2.1a/1b launch to polar orbit, but what is definitely not is a NOTAM for the Pacific Ocean that is clearly related to this launch (posted by Marco Langbroek on the SeeSat forum):

NAVAREA XII 330/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
    2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
    IN AREA BOUND BY
    29-21.00N 126-46.00W, 29-50.00N 128-52.00W,
    24-22.00N 130-24.00W, 23-53.00N 128-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.

This is an area some 1000 km from the US West Coast. The only logical explanation is that it is the impact zone for the third stage, meaning that it is suborbital and that the Soyuz-2 will need a Fregat upper stage to place the payload into orbit. This would be a first for a Soyuz-2 launch into this type of orbit from Plesetsk.

That area is consistent with the impact of the Blok-I stage of the Soyuz on a suborbital trajectory of
around -1700 x 450 km. I haven't seen a NOTAM for any putative 4th stage (Fregat or Volga).

[Liss]

To add an intrigue, Sputnix has announced today's launch fo six commercial spacecraft, namely two Zorkiy-2M and four SITRO-AIS.

[jcm]

Update:  Bob Christy on twitter  (@orbital_focus) suggests there was  Fregat deorbit in the Indian Ocean
10 hours after launch  (I would say probably around 0800 UTC in fact). Does anyone know of a NOTAM
that would support that report?

[Liss]

Update:  Bob Christy on twitter  (@orbital_focus) suggests there was  Fregat deorbit in the Indian Ocean
10 hours after launch  (I would say probably around 0800 UTC in fact). Does anyone know of a NOTAM
that would support that report?

This one maybe:

F1791/24 NOTAMN
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/2815S07736E500
A) YMMM
B) 2405170700 C) 2405220900
D) DAILY 0700-0900
E) ROCKET LAUNCH FROM RUSSIA WILL TAKE PLACE
FLW RECEIVED FROM GOVERNMENT OF RUSSIA:
THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF RUSSIA PLANS TO LAUNCH MISSILE IN THE
SPACE AND TO SINK ITS FRAGMENTS IN THE WATERS OF THE OCEAN.
CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPACT AREA:
3521S07521E
2100S07900E
2109S07936E
3530S07603E
3521S07521E
F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 14 May 2024 12:33:00
SOURCE: YBBBZEZX

[GWR64]

Only one object so far but 2024-092A/59773 has been found in a 436 x 451 km x 97.25° orbit.

There are now 9 objects for 2024-092, in 3 different orbits. 

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2024-092

[Salo]

To add an intrigue, Sputnix has announced today's launch fo six commercial spacecraft, namely two Zorkiy-2M and four SITRO-AIS.

https://forum.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/index.php?msg=2645916

Запущены Зоркий-2М #4 и #6, SITRO-AIS ##53-56

Zorkiy-2M №4, Zorkiy-2M №6, SITRO-AIS-53, SITRO-AIS-54, SITRO-AIS-55, SITRO-AIS-56

[B. Hendrickx]

So at this point it looks like we have the six civilian cubesats announced by Sputnix and three military satellites. The Fregat seems to have performed four burns to place the satellites into their different orbits before de-orbiting itself.  My guess is that the cubesats are the ones in the 435 to 550 km orbits. The earlier Zorkiy-2M and SITRO-AIS satellites orbit at similar altitudes. The three military satellites would then be in the 780x796 km orbit. Could very well be the trio of Razbeg/14F169 satellites as speculated here earlier, but we'll have to look at the further behavior of these satellites.

Meanwhile, Bob Christy has pointed out that the satellites are co-planar with USA 314, a big US optical reconnaissance satellite launched by a Delta-4 Heavy rocket in April 2021.

From the SeeSat list:

More interesting is that the Local Time at the Descending Node is 13:00 making it coplanar with USA 314 (48247/2021-032A) a US government/military imaging satellite.
Earlier launches matching US spysats were Cosmos 2542 in the same plane as USA-245, and the ongoing Cosmos 2558 mission currently 'shadowing' USA-326.

Reply by Marco Langbroek:

Bob's observation is interesting indeed. Currently the orbit of KOSMOS 2576 is clearly lower than that of USA 314, but
RAAN and inclination are indeed very close (0.02 and 0.8 deg resp). It will be  very interesting to see if Kosmos 2576 will raise its orbit at some point. In the current still preliminary orbit it makes approaches to USA 314 at ~340 km
distance each 1.4 days.

This was posted when only the first object in the 435x451 km orbit had been catalogued. The satellites in the higher orbits are closer to it (the latest orbit I see for USA 314 is 548x769 km). This may be a coincidence, but worth keeping an eye on anyway. 

[Alter Sachse]

[njb]

Video appears to show a vehicle no. of 7705373 on the upper stage

[russianhalo117]

Video appears to show a vehicle no. of 7705373 on the upper stage

A booster shot shows the number 77053735 so the 5 is cut off in the blok-I footage.

[Liss]

To add more intrigue, Bureau 1440 anounced launch of three Rassvet-2 satellites on May 17.
https://t.me/bureau_1440/81

[GWR64]

I believe object A is the main payload. The orbit differs from those of the objects B to F.
Something that won't be revealed. Maybe larger than the others.
The published numbers of satellites are intended to be confusing.

[Alter Sachse]

Only one “Kosmos”
Exact launch time.

[4353]

So, a tally:

objects                      source                          size
1x  Kosmos 2576      RosCosmos                  large?   
3x Rassvet                Telegram message       large
2x Zorkiy 2M             Sputnix                         12U
4x SITRO-AIS            Sputnix                         3U

That is 10 satellites, 6 bof which are cubesats.

How certain is it that there were 3 Razbegs as well?

[Alter Sachse]

So, a tally:

objects                      source                          size
1x  Kosmos 2576      RosCosmos                  large?   
3x Rassvet                Telegram message       large
2x Zorkiy 2M             Sputnix                         12U
4x SITRO-AIS            Sputnix                         3U

That is 10 satellites, 6 bof which are cubesats.

How certain is it that there were 3 Razbegs as well?

The Rassvet, which were launched in June 2023, are said to have weighed around 80 kg each.

[Alter Sachse]

So, a tally:

objects                      source                          size
1x  Kosmos 2576      RosCosmos                  large?   
3x Rassvet                Telegram message       large
2x Zorkiy 2M             Sputnix                         12U
4x SITRO-AIS            Sputnix                         3U

That is 10 satellites, 6 bof which are cubesats.

How certain is it that there were 3 Razbegs as well?

3 Razbeg - I think that's just a guess.

[GWR64]

Celestrak now has the 10th object "K". Similar orbit as  D, E and F.  So probably the 4th SITRO-AIS cubesat.

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2024-092

[4353]

So this then seems to be the ID's:

GROUP     ORBIT (km)  INC      PERIOD   OBJECT(S)  possible ID
I              451 x 435    97.25    93.45     A                KOSMOS 2576
II             796 x 780    98.59   100.62    G,H,J          Rassvet
IIIa          552 x 532    97.59   95.52      D,E,F,K       SITRO-AIS
IIIb          548 x 531    97.59   95.45      B,C            Zorkiy 2M

[koroljow]

How certain is it that there were 3 Razbegs as well?

В рекордно короткие сроки мы создали три низкоорбитальных космических аппарата следующего поколения
In record time, we created three next-generation low-orbit spacecraft

source: https://t.me/bureau_1440/81

[B. Hendrickx]

The Russians definitely threw us a curve ball with this one, but it looks like things are more or less falling into place now. Another object from this launch has now been catalogued (number 59809 / 2024-092K), meaning that all ten announced satellites are now accounted for. There’s still some doubt on where the smaller satellites exactly are, but Marco Langbroek nicely summarized everything we know right now:

https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-russian-kosmos-2576-launch-of-may.html

GROUP     ORBIT (km)  INC     PERIOD   OBJECT(S)    possible ID
I              451 x 435   97.25   93.45           A             KOSMOS 2576
II             796 x 780   98.59   100.62      G,H,J          Rassvet
IIIa          552 x 532   97.59   95.52        D,E,F,K       SITRO-AIS
IIIb          548 x 531   97.59   95.45          B,C           Zorkiy 2M

This is his take on the deployment sequence (based on orbit analysis):

(1) launch into 97.24 inclined, 435 x 451 km orbit, insertion of object A (primary payload);
(2) manoeuver up into 98.59 inclined, 780 x 796 km orbit, insertion of objects G,H,J (secondary payloads);
(3) manoever down into 97.59 inclined, 535 x 552 km orbit, insertion of objects D,E,F,K;
(4) slightly lower apogee, no inclination change, 531 x 548 km orbit, insertion of objects B,C;
(5) Fregat stage deorbit reentry ~10h 20m after launch.

The Zorkiy-2M and SITRO-AIS cubesats were likely mounted on a frame connected to the Fregat upper stage.  The three Rassvet-2 broadband satellites were installed on the sides of a circular dispenser (as can be seen in the attached picture). They are said to be twice as large and heavy as the three Rassvet-1 satellites launched last year, which each weighed 80 kg each. That means the current trio must have had a total mass of around 480 kg. 

I should clarify that this launch did not carry the three Razbeg/14F169 satellites as I speculated last week. This was the most plausible explanation for the presence of the Fregat upper stage, but it has clearly turned out to be wrong. There is still a small possibility that Kosmos-2576 is a Razbeg (the satellites will be launched both individually and in groups), but right now that looks fairly unlikely. One of the reasons is that an environmental impact study on Razbeg launches from Plesetsk has probably not yet been completed (see Reply 3).  Although Razbeg has been linked to various Kosmos satellites launched in recent years, it is most likely yet to fly.

As explained by Marco Langbroek in his blog, the best guess right now is that Kosmos-2576’s mission is to shadow USA 314. The fact that it is in nearly exactly the same orbital plane as USA 314 was first spotted by Bob Christy shortly after its launch (see the attachment from Marco’s blog). This would make it the fourth satellite in the Nivelir (14F150) series, the other ones being Kosmos-2519, 2542 and 2558. Kosmos-2558 is still active, performing observations of USA 326. At least five 14F150 satellites are known to have been planned by its manufacturer, NPO Lavochkin.

It should be noted that the three earlier 14F150 satellites were orbited by the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga combination. The switch to the heavier Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat may have been required because of the need to deploy the smaller payloads, although it is somewhat strange that the choice of a launch vehicle for a Ministry of Defense mission would be determined by civilian co-passengers. We will just have to wait and see what Kosmos-2576 does in the coming days and weeks. If it is indeed a 14F150 satellite, it may deploy a subsatellite like Kosmos-2519 and 2542 did earlier.