Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Kosmos-2576/Bureau 1440/Zorkiy-2M/SITRO-AIS - Plesetsk - 16 May 2024 21:21:39  (Read 29596 times)

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

https://twitter.com/us_spacecom/status/1792694415905214850

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Today, at the @UN Security Council meeting on a resolution on the prevention of an arms race in outer space & outer space security, Robert Wood, U.S. representative in the UN, highlighted Russia's actions in space & how the U.S. will continue to demonstrate safe space activities.

Interesting he said the following: "Just last week, on May 16, Russia launched a satellite into low Earth orbit that the United States assesses is likely a counterspace weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites."
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Offline Alter Sachse

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I think there is no doubt about the task of Kosmos 2576.
Initial orbit:
Cosmos 2558: 97.26° 435x452 km
Cosmos 2576: 97.25° 436x451 km

Kosmos 2558 observed a satellite of the USA.
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Online B. Hendrickx

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https://twitter.com/us_spacecom/status/1792694415905214850

Quote
Today, at the @UN Security Council meeting on a resolution on the prevention of an arms race in outer space & outer space security, Robert Wood, U.S. representative in the UN, highlighted Russia's actions in space & how the U.S. will continue to demonstrate safe space activities.

Interesting he said the following: "Just last week, on May 16, Russia launched a satellite into low Earth orbit that the United States assesses is likely a counterspace weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites."

He also added why they are concerned about it:

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Russia deployed this new counterspace weapon into the same orbit as a US government satellite. Russia's May 16 launch follows prior Russian satellite launches likely of counterspace systems to low Earth orbit in 2019 and 2022.

So the US clearly considers this the same type of satellite as Kosmos-2542 in 2019 and Kosmos-2558 in 2022. These did nothing more than observe the US satellites from a distance, but what may be of more concern to the US is that Kosmos-2542 ejected a subsatellite (Kosmos-2543) that in turn fired what is believed to be an ASAT projectile when flying close to another Russian satellite. The same was observed during the Kosmos-2519/2521/2523 mission in 2017. The "mother satellites" (14F150) are a product of NPO Lavochkin and the subsatellites and projectiles are most likely manufactured by CNIIHM.

There is a possibility that Kosmos-2576 is not the fourth 14F150 satellite, but another one with the index 14F168. This was mentioned in a court document related to 14F150. See a post in the Nivelir thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50125.0
(Reply 15)

This could potentially be a heavier and more capable version of 14F150, which might also explain why a heavier launch vehicle was used this time than the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga. But all that is, of course, highly speculative.



Offline GWR64

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COSMOS 2576 orbit, no maneuver yet, keep watching

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?CATNR=59773


Online B. Hendrickx

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There is a possibility that Kosmos-2576 is not the fourth 14F150 satellite, but another one with the index 14F168. This was mentioned in a court document related to 14F150. See a post in the Nivelir thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50125.0
(Reply 15)

This could potentially be a heavier and more capable version of 14F150, which might also explain why a heavier launch vehicle was used this time than the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga. But all that is, of course, highly speculative.

I’ve made a few visual observations of Kosmos-2576. It's not a particularly conspicuous object, becoming no brighter than magnitude +3.5/+4 even during favorable passes with high elevation. It’s not any brighter than the three satellites that can be positively identified as 14F150/Nivelir (Kosmos-2519, 2542 and 2558), so purely based on its reflectivity, there are no reasons to believe that it is bigger or of another type than those three satellites. But it’s dangerous to draw too many conclusions solely from its brightness in the night sky.

The earlier 14F150 satellites were launched by the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga combination, so if Kosmos-2567 is indeed another satellite of that type, the military swapped the Soyuz-2.1v/Volga for the Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat just for the sake of orbiting the smaller civilian passenger satellites. All this is quite unprecedented, not only the mix of military and civilian satellites, but also the fact that the choice of the launch vehicle is dictated by the passengers rather than the main payload.

As for the passengers, SpaceTrack continues to label all them of as “unknown”.  The same is seen for other recent Russian group launches. However, it is quite easy to identify this batch of satellites based on the different orbits and radar cross sections (RCS):

-Objects B and C: the two Zorkiy-2M satellites  (12U cubesats with solar panels)
-Objects D, E, F, K: the four SITRO-AIS satellites  (3U cubesats)
-Objects G, H, J: the three Rassvet-2 satellites (each weighing roughly 160 kg)  (the RCS of Object G is given as “medium” rather than "large", but that is probably an inaccuracy)

There's been virtually no news on the piggyback payloads in the weeks after launch, except that the Rassvet-2 satellites have successfully carried out laser communications experiments. Earlier SITRO-AIS and Zorkiy-2M satellites carried radio amateur payloads, but no frequencies or callsigns have so far been announced or detected for the satellites launched in May. 





Offline GWR64

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COSMOS 2576 orbit, no maneuver yet, keep watching

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?CATNR=59773



But now, a little push

Online B. Hendrickx

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But now, a little push

This was the first of three burns conducted between June 10 and 12 that placed Kosmos-2576 into a higher orbit. No more activity since. The satellite is now being tracked in a 439x452 km orbit, still well below that of USA 314. Meanwhile, more concern about Kosmos-2576 has been expressed by the head of U.S. Space Command:

https://spacenews.com/u-s-space-command-ready-for-potential-russian-satellite-attack-general-says/

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U.S. Space Command ready for potential Russian satellite attack, general says

WASHINGTON — U.S. Space Command is preparing for the possibility of Russia targeting American satellites in orbit, according to the command’s top general.

Gen. Stephen Whiting, head of U.S. Space Command, commented on recent reports indicating that Russia has deployed “co-planar” spacecraft positioned to monitor U.S. satellites.

Speaking June 24 at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Whiting said Russia’s launch of its Cosmos 2576 satellite in low Earth orbit on May 16 — which the Pentagon assessed to be a counter-space weapon — was “put on orbit in an operational capacity.”

“And when you look at where they put the satellite, in what we call co-planar to a national security satellite, that doesn’t seem to be accidental,” said Whiting.

Co-planar deployment refers to the positioning of satellites on the same geometric plane in space. When Russia deploys “co-planar” spacecraft, it means they are placing their satellite in an orbit that is aligned with the orbit of a U.S. satellite. This alignment allows the Russian spacecraft to monitor, track, and potentially interfere with a U.S. satellite because they are moving along the same path or plane in space.

Whiting noted that this deployment came as no surprise. “We’ve been tracking objects on orbit for decades,” he said. “We can look at those orbital parameters and we can compare that launch to launches that the Russians did in 2017, 2019 and 2022 that look like this class of counter-space weapon that they’ve tested previously, and that now appears that they’ve put on orbit in an operational capacity.”

U.S. Space Command is taking these activities seriously and actively rehearsing a response to potential attacks on U.S. space assets, Whiting said.
....

The earlier satellites he refers to are Kosmos-2519, 2542 and 2558, all three of the 14150/Nivelir type.

Online B. Hendrickx

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As can be seen in the graph from Celestrak, a clear pattern is now emerging where Kosmos-2576 performs a series of burns about every month or so to maintain an average altitude near 449 km. This keeps it in an orbital plane very close to that of USA 314, whose average altitude is about 200 km higher. For the time being, the Russians seem to be content to keep an eye on the US satellite from that distance.

A similar pattern is observed for Kosmos-2558, which has been shadowing USA 326 for more than two years. The main difference is that the average distance between those two is significantly smaller, around 40 km.

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