Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1v - Kosmos-2574, Razbeg №1, MKA-V - Plesetsk, 43/4 - December 27, 2023 (07:03:44 UTC) (Read 25073 times)

B. Hendrickx · « **on:** 12/19/2023 09:09 pm »

Quote

A7307/23 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02148E024
A) ENOB B) 2312270600 C) 2312310800
D) DAILY 0600-0800
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS MISSILE AREA' ACTIVATED PSN 755900N
0212600E - 755000N 0220500E - 753500N 0224700E - 752100N 0225200E -
751500N 0221300E - 752400N 0212900E - 753600N 0205100E - 755300N
0204300E - (755900N 0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES.
F) GND G) UNL

This is the impact zone for the payload fairing of the Soyuz-2-1v in the Barents Sea.

For what it's worth: a usually reliable source on a Russian spaceflight forum says the upcoming Soyuz-2 launch (set for Dec 21-25) will carry a "cartographer" and the one after that (Dec 27-31) a "Death Star", adding that the first one will "shoot pictures" (or at least that's how I interpret the verb he uses) and the second one will "destroy". Sounds like a Bars-M (a topographic mapping satellite) and something like Nivelir/Burevestnik or the like, but it's dangerous to read too much into cryptic language like this. As usual, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

PM3 · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/22/2023 09:50 am »

Nextspaceflight says that this will launch with a Volga upper stage:

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7460

Any indications which support that? I suspect that Nextspaceflight ist just guessing.

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/22/2023 10:55 am »

Quote from: PM3 on 12/22/2023 09:50 am

Nextspaceflight says that this will launch with a Volga upper stage:

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7460

Any indications which support that? I suspect that Nextspaceflight ist just guessing.

I was the one updating this entry on NXSF. I did forget that there were flights that didn’t use the upper stage; will update now to just -2.1v as the guess (based on drop zone location).
Sorry for the confusion.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/22/2023 01:00 pm »

If it really is from the Nivelier program, there could already be a Volga upper stage.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/22/2023 02:40 pm »

If there is a Volga, we should see a NOTAM for its de-orbit burn. These were the coordinates for the three earlier Nivelir missions (in the South Pacific, Navarea XIV):

Quote

30-00S 175-00W, 30-00S 090-00W,
60-00S 090-00W, 60-00S 175-00W.

So far nothing, but it may still appear. A space debris warning has been issued for that Navarea, but it is for the period December 23-30 and the coordinates are different, so it looks like there is no connection with the Soyuz-2.1v launch.

Satori · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/27/2023 06:43 am »

According to a post on NK forum, launch took place at 0703UTC.

Satori · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/27/2023 06:45 am »

ITAR-TASS confirmation...

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/19635829

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/27/2023 08:30 am »

Kosmos 2574 !!
07:03:44

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/27/2023 09:22 am »

Apparently launch success was confirmed. No upper stage it seems (and there seems to be no NOTAMs in the usual Volga de-orbit zone either).

https://www.interfax.ru/world/938157

(Google Translate)

Quote

Moscow. 27th of December. INTERFAX.RU - A spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense, launched on Wednesday on a Soyuz-2.1v light rocket from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, entered its intended orbit, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Wednesday.

“At the estimated time, the spacecraft was launched into the target orbit and accepted for control by ground-based space forces of the Aerospace Forces. A stable telemetric connection was established and maintained with the spacecraft, its onboard systems are functioning normally ,” the message says.

The launch of the Soyuz-2.1v rocket took place at 10.03 Moscow time from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region. The launch and insertion of the satellite into the intended orbit took place as usual, the Russian military department emphasized. After the launch, the rocket was escorted by the ground-based automated control complex of the Main Test Space Center named after German Titov.

After being launched into orbit, officers of the Main Center for Space Situation Intelligence of the Space Forces of the Aerospace Forces entered information about the spacecraft into the Main Catalog of Space Objects of the Russian Space Control System and began analyzing and processing information about the new space object.

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #9 on:** 12/27/2023 09:51 am »

(via Russian MoD https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/11939)

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #10 on:** 12/27/2023 10:44 am »

GWR64 · « **Reply #11 on:** 12/27/2023 10:52 am »

yes, just 6 days after the launch of a 2.1a from this launch pad
unless the pictures of the Kosmos 2573 launch are not current

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #12 on:** 12/27/2023 03:45 pm »

96.75° 348x361 km

SpaceFinnOriginal · « **Reply #13 on:** 12/27/2023 04:57 pm »

Soyuz' serial known?

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #14 on:** 12/27/2023 06:56 pm »

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1740073679365796116

Quote

CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-209) of COSMOS 2574 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Dec 27 at 0703 UTC: russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft-mil…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-209

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #15 on:** 12/27/2023 10:11 pm »

It's too early to make any definitive conclusions about this one. One that can most likely be ruled out is Nivelir, because that has always used the Volga upper stage plus it doesn't look like this satellite has been placed into an orbit close to anything else (at least not at first sight).

Among the known Russian military satellites I see two possible candidates:

-EO MKA nr. 5 (same type as Kosmos-2551, 2555, 2560 and 2568). However, its initial orbit is higher than any of those (the highest was that of Kosmos-2568 at 329x345 km). Also, the local time of the descending node for this one is 22:40, whereas for all four EO MKA satellites it was 11:30. I'm not sure though how significant that is.

-Razbeg (a small optical reconnaissance satellite built by VNIIEM). There were indications that the first three would be launched together by a single rocket, but that may have been a wrong conclusion.

It may very well be something else too. We'll just have to wait and see what it does in the coming weeks.

russianhalo117 · « **Reply #16 on:** 01/03/2024 08:52 pm »

Payload identification updated to Kosmos-2574, Razbeg No. 1, MKA-V:
https://russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft-military-soyuz2-1v-2023-1227.html

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #17 on:** 01/04/2024 04:13 pm »

Quote from: russianhalo117 on 01/03/2024 08:52 pm

Payload identification updated to Kosmos-2574, Razbeg No. 1, MKA-V:
https://russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft-military-soyuz2-1v-2023-1227.html

Why the link to Anatoly Zak's article to identify it as Razbeg? He doesn't mention that name. Kosmos-2574 was identified as such by a Russian Telegram channel that summed up the Russian military launches of 2023 and that information was then taken over by several other sources. No indications though that this channel has any inside information.

russianhalo117 · « **Reply #18 on:** 01/04/2024 05:48 pm »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 01/04/2024 04:13 pm

Quote from: russianhalo117 on 01/03/2024 08:52 pm
Payload identification updated to Kosmos-2574, Razbeg No. 1, MKA-V:
https://russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft-military-soyuz2-1v-2023-1227.html

Why the link to Anatoly Zak's article to identify it as Razbeg? He doesn't mention that name. Kosmos-2574 was identified as such by a Russian Telegram channel that summed up the Russian military launches of 2023 and that information was then taken over by several other sources. No indications though that this channel has any inside information.

At the top of the article in the table directly below the Soyuz-2-1v rocket mission on Dec. 27, 2023, at a glance section the updated payload designation in the first row and last column it now reads Kosmos-2574, Razbeg No. 1, MKA-V. The change was made on December 31, 2023.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #19 on:** 01/04/2024 08:00 pm »

Quote from: russianhalo117 on 01/04/2024 05:48 pm

At the top of the article in the table directly below the Soyuz-2-1v rocket mission on Dec. 27, 2023, at a glance section the updated payload designation in the first row and last column it now reads Kosmos-2574, Razbeg No. 1, MKA-V. The change was made on December 31, 2023.

Thanks, I hadn't noticed that. Strange then that Razbeg is not mentioned in the article itself. If there's any solid evidence for this being Razbeg, you'd expect it to be given there. So still wondering if this information comes from the Telegram channel article that summed up Russian military launches in 2023. This appeared on December 29, after which the NK forum also listed Kosmos-2574 as Razbeg. But the sources given in the Telegram report are Western observers (Anatoly Zak, Gunter Krebs, Jonathan McDowell, Scott Tilley), so it's based on Western speculation...

Perhaps we should just wait and see what this satellite does. Regular orbit corrections could indeed point to this being an optical reconnaissance satellite like Razbeg.