Starship Launch Attempts in 2023

[Timber Micka]

I voted 2

[mandrewa]

I voted for five launches.  And since I don't think there's any chance of more than five launches that's not an accurate assessment of the odds.  It's more of a hope.

There are two issues that may significantly lower the odds of SpaceX reaching five Starship launches.  There is the chance that there will be an explosion on the launch pad that takes a long time to recover from.  Clearly SpaceX is doing everything it can to avoid such a thing.  And I think the odds of this happening are low.

The bigger issue is political.  I'm hoping for a return to the earlier Starship testing regime where it's just understood that there will be explosions and failures, and that things will not work perfectly.  If that's the case we will see rapid development and there's a very good chance we will see five launches.

But it's possible the regulatory agencies will prevent that.

[Craigles]

5

5 is optimistic. Empirically we expect fewer for a new LV. But 5 is their plan, and they've scaled their production, and they've tested aggressively, and they've got major permits. The biggest visible things that have to come together quickly now are water deluge, pad cladding and closeouts, a full static fire, FAA permits, and some sort of NASA blessing including NASA reentry tracking near Hawaii. I'm counting 0 to 1 RTLS attempts in 2023 and 0 to 1 attempts from pad 39A. Oh, I'm also counting on 0  pad explosions.

[lightleviathan]

I honestly can't see anything over 3. There will be 1 booster RTLS attempt at the end of the year. I think that the attempts will go April - September - December.  That's really all. I just can't see SpaceX ramping up launch cadence that much.

[TrueBlueWitt]

Does aborting on the pad during countdown count as a launch attempt?
"Attempts" doesn't seem well enough defined here.

[eeergo]

Does aborting on the pad during countdown count as a launch attempt?
"Attempts" doesn't seem well enough defined here.

Literally the first sentence in the OP:

"A launch attempt counts if the vehicle departs the orbital launch platform after a count down that was not aborted. "

[sdsds]

I'm projecting 3 SS/SH flights in 2023. (And 12 in 2024.)

A more interesting projection would be, "How many stages (SS or SH) flown in 2024 will be reflights of previously flown stages?"

[oiorionsbelt]

I went with 5 after reading Qwynne Shotwell's prediction of 100 in 2025
 However it likely depends on success rate. Successful flights will have a quicker turn around than failures.

[DanClemmensen]

I went with 5 after reading Qwynne Shotwell's prediction of 100 in 2025
 However it likely depends on success rate. Successful flights will have a quicker turn around than failures.

SS+SH+Stage 0 could do it from one site of it were permitted, but 100 in 2025 is a fantasy. They must launch from somewhere. BC will not expand much beyond 5/yr. The eastern range that supports KSC+CCSFS cannot support more than about 90/yr total of Starships plus all other launches. They need to develop another site, onshore or offshore, and that takes more than 2 years when you include the paperwork.

[oiorionsbelt]

I went with 5 after reading Qwynne Shotwell's prediction of 100 in 2025
 However it likely depends on success rate. Successful flights will have a quicker turn around than failures.

SS+SH+Stage 0 could do it from one site of it were permitted, but 100 in 2025 is a fantasy. They must launch from somewhere. BC will not expand much beyond 5/yr. The eastern range that supports KSC+CCSFS cannot support more than about 90/yr total of Starships plus all other launches. They need to develop another site, onshore or offshore, and that takes more than 2 years when you include the paperwork.

So you're not arguing against 5 starship this year
I wonder about your assertion that the eastern range can only support 90 launches in total considering F9 is expecting 100 flights this year. Any source for that?
 If Qwynne Shotwell says she thinks Starship could do 100 flights in 2025 I wouldn't classify it as fantasy. Not arguing against the need for another launch site but perhaps BC is capable of more than 5 IF, big IF allowed. It's only the EPA after all.

[tyrred]

2
Boca Chica only.

April 1st
B9 Ship25
Failure to achieve "orbit"; catastrophic Superheavy Booster failure, due to a corroded nut, narrowly evades completely destroying stage 0; the blast is terrifying, spectators can't wait to get closer next time

August 2nd
B13 Ship31
Successful launch and staging; Ship disintegrates during late phase of EDL, returns enough data to convince the TPS team the tiles aren't a lost cause, just going to be an ongoing nightmare because the flap hinge seals are a real skink

Lengthy repairs and "upgrades" to stage 0 after each attempt.

39A sees no StarShip launch attempt this year; historic 39A keeps F9 operations as priority, meanwhile a new tank farm needs to be built for StarShip due to some other rookie mistake similar to Boca Chica

I really wish I felt different about my "predictions", but the lustrous hype has eroded to a thin veneer, and the kids just won't stay off my lawn

[DanClemmensen]

I went with 5 after reading Qwynne Shotwell's prediction of 100 in 2025
 However it likely depends on success rate. Successful flights will have a quicker turn around than failures.

SS+SH+Stage 0 could do it from one site of it were permitted, but 100 in 2025 is a fantasy. They must launch from somewhere. BC will not expand much beyond 5/yr. The eastern range that supports KSC+CCSFS cannot support more than about 90/yr total of Starships plus all other launches. They need to develop another site, onshore or offshore, and that takes more than 2 years when you include the paperwork.

So you're not arguing against 5 starship this year
I wonder about your assertion that the eastern range can only support 90 launches in total considering F9 is expecting 100 flights this year. Any source for that?
 If Qwynne Shotwell says she thinks Starship could do 100 flights in 2025 I wouldn't classify it as fantasy. Not arguing against the need for another launch site but perhaps BC is capable of more than 5 IF, big IF allowed. It's only the EPA after all.

This is a personal opinion, not information from anyone else. the 2023 "100 flights" includes Vandenberg and BC. An officer (PAO?) at the range stated that they could support 87 launches in 2023, after doing considerable improvement to processes and procedures. In general, you get diminishing returns from such exercises, so they won't get an equivalent improvement for 2024 or 2025, and I randomly picked 90. Separately, I know that each launch requires maritime and airspace keep-outs that are disruptive, and I think that there will be objections and pushback from airlines and especially from the cruise industry against operations that occur more than twice a week.

[ZachS09]

2
Boca Chica only.

April 1st
B9 Ship25
Failure to achieve "orbit"; catastrophic Superheavy Booster failure, due to a corroded nut, narrowly evades completely destroying stage 0; the blast is terrifying, spectators can't wait to get closer next time

August 2nd
B13 Ship31
Successful launch and staging; Ship disintegrates during late phase of EDL, returns enough data to convince the TPS team the tiles aren't a lost cause, just going to be an ongoing nightmare because the flap hinge seals are a real skink

Lengthy repairs and "upgrades" to stage 0 after each attempt.

39A sees no StarShip launch attempt this year; historic 39A keeps F9 operations as priority, meanwhile a new tank farm needs to be built for StarShip due to some other rookie mistake similar to Boca Chica

I really wish I felt different about my "predictions", but the lustrous hype has eroded to a thin veneer, and the kids just won't stay off my lawn

“Can’t wait to get closer next time” in your Launch #1 prediction; are you insinuating said spectators want to see another RUD, let alone watch at a closer distance?

[darkenfast]

I voted six. SpaceX will probably launch 7/24 off the pad in March (success past that, unknown!). They are building new Booster/Ship combos fast and will try for their five launches from Boca Chica in 2023. At the end of the year, they will attempt the first launch from the just-finished 39A Stage 0, using a Booster/Ship built at Starbase. Once they know what works at BC, things will move fast in Florida.

All from my crystal ball!

[Robotbeat]

It’s understood that More than 5 launches from Boca Chica per year would have to require modified permitting.

Reminder: It is plausible SpaceX could begin launching from Cape 39A in addition to Boca Chica to achieve more than 5 total launches without modifying the Boca Chica permitting. (I don't think it likely, just wanted to point out the possibility.)

From my understanding, Starship can't launch from 39A until after the new crew access tower/arm is completed at LC-40. NASA doesn't want to risk a Starship failure damaging crewed capability.

But they’re only a few months away from that. I don’t think that will be the limiting factor on launch rate.

[Robotbeat]

I went with 5 after reading Qwynne Shotwell's prediction of 100 in 2025
 However it likely depends on success rate. Successful flights will have a quicker turn around than failures.

SS+SH+Stage 0 could do it from one site of it were permitted, but 100 in 2025 is a fantasy. They must launch from somewhere. BC will not expand much beyond 5/yr. The eastern range that supports KSC+CCSFS cannot support more than about 90/yr total of Starships plus all other launches. They need to develop another site, onshore or offshore, and that takes more than 2 years when you include the paperwork.

So you're not arguing against 5 starship this year
I wonder about your assertion that the eastern range can only support 90 launches in total considering F9 is expecting 100 flights this year. Any source for that?
 If Qwynne Shotwell says she thinks Starship could do 100 flights in 2025 I wouldn't classify it as fantasy. Not arguing against the need for another launch site but perhaps BC is capable of more than 5 IF, big IF allowed. It's only the EPA after all.

This is a personal opinion, not information from anyone else. the 2023 "100 flights" includes Vandenberg and BC. An officer (PAO?) at the range stated that they could support 87 launches in 2023, after doing considerable improvement to processes and procedures. In general, you get diminishing returns from such exercises, so they won't get an equivalent improvement for 2024 or 2025, and I randomly picked 90. Separately, I know that each launch requires maritime and airspace keep-outs that are disruptive, and I think that there will be objections and pushback from airlines and especially from the cruise industry against operations that occur more than twice a week.

There’s no fundamental limit to the range in number of launches that can’t be removed through better processes and procedures

[CraigLieb]

Poll closing today

[Vahe231991]

My guess is that if the first Starship launch is successful, then there could be one or two additional Starship flights this year.

[sdsds]

I'm projecting 3 SS/SH flights in 2023. (And 12 in 2024.)

I reiterate the projection of 3 flights in 2023, noting this is also the mode of the poll responses.
Regarding 2024, my base case remains 12 flights, with an inter-quartile range spanning from 6 to 28 flights. FWIW.

[Vahe231991]

The first Starship launch took place today, and Elon Musk is now eyeing a second Starship launch in a few months because he feels bullish about SpaceX having gained enough data from the performance of the first stage of the Starship during the maiden launch of the Starship:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649050306943266819