When will the next astronaut set foot on the moon?

[BrianNH]

How optimistic/pessimistic are we feeling?

[ZachS09]

I feel 2025 is a good year for this first crewed lunar landing since 1972.

Even though they’ve stuck with 2024 for a while, I feel they need another year of preparation.

[high road]

A year delay for the test mission just because NASA now has a foot on the red tape break, and another year for the manned mission. Assuming Congress gets behind the project. 2027 at the earliest

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I went 2028 - 2029. Partly because I’m not confident Congress will give the program the funding it needs and partly because I expect a number of technical issues and under-estimates to cause a series of milestones moving right. I don’t think going back to the Moon is less prone to delays than commercial crew to ISS was.

[Zed_Noir]

Just to clarified. Astronaut as in NASA personnel or someone who is not Russian or Chinese?

[BrianNH]

I am using the word astronaut to refer to any human regardless of nationality or govt vs private vs commercial.  Any human qualifies.

[Vultur]

2025 or 2026 seems likely, IMO. 2024 is likely to slip, but given Starship development pace, if the first couple SLS launches go well and nothing unexpected happens, it might not slip that much.

[Endeavour_01]

I voted 2026-2027. SpaceX is moving fast on SS/SH and while contract work on LSS development is currently suspended due to the protest I don't think it will set them back too far. That said while fantastic progress has been made there is still a long way to go.

There is also the matter of the Cantwell amendment. If the GAO denies the protest and the Cantwell amendment is either rejected or Congress provides enough funds to fully fund two providers I could see LSS being ready by 2025.

Meanwhile SLS/Orion are moving steadily towards a launch in early 2022. Assuming Artemis II lifts off in late 2023 that means an Artemis III launch in the late 2024/early 2025 timeframe. Due to uncertainties mentioned above I just don't think everything will be ready by that timeframe. Therefore the lunar landing would be delayed to Artemis IV in around 2026.

[joek]

2026-2027. Still many dependencies and a lot of work to do regardless of how fast SpaceX moves on LSS (that's just one part of the puzzle).

[RoadWithoutEnd]

There are three different dates to input:

1.  The hardware to land an astronaut on the Moon becomes flight-worthy.

2.  SpaceX is prepared to use it.

3.  The willfully slow, inefficient, and corrupt hodgepodge of pork contractors forced on NASA in order to secure political support finally oozes its way into position to let SpaceX drag them to the Moon kicking and screaming.

If Elon Musk decides the delay between Item 2 and Item 3 is too great, and chooses to follow up DearMoon with an independent landing, that could accelerate it by seven years (or more) against an SLS/Orion-centric NASA timeline.

Really what determines it is his personal willingness (or unwillingness) to flip a middle finger at a political-industrial ecosystem that just...doesn't...want...to do anything, ever.  The level of resistance SpaceX encountered at even returning American astronauts to LEO should be a strong warning of how crazy the system will drag its feet on ambitions far greater and more conspicuous.

If we have to wait for NASA, maybe Congress can be bullied into letting them go back to the Moon by 2030.  If not, 2024 is conceivable.

[JacobTheInvestigator]

If NASA doesn't send a crewed mission to the Moon by 2024, the next probable term they'll achieve the Moon is 2029-2030. Any delays are crucial because of the certain period of extreme space weather. https://phys.org/news/2021-05-moon-mission-solar-storms.html

[Zed_Noir]

There are three different dates to input:

1.  The hardware to land an astronaut on the Moon becomes flight-worthy.

Between Date 1 and Date 2, someone might ask SpaceX on how much it cost to hot test the hardware for SpaceX.

2.  SpaceX is prepared to use it.

3.  The willfully slow, inefficient, and corrupt hodgepodge of pork contractors forced on NASA in order to secure political support finally oozes its way into position to let SpaceX drag them to the Moon kicking and screaming.
<snip>

There is a chance that Elon might let some daredevils hot test the Moonship if NASA Congress hesitates. After said daredevils signed the proper waivers and pony up the cash.

[Paul451]

SpaceX doesn't and will not go out of its way to humiliate its largest and most important client.

[StarshipSLS]

2025

[Zed_Noir]

SpaceX doesn't and will not go out of its way to humiliate its largest and most important client.

AIUI, if the Congress hesitates. That means no or very little funding for the HLS program. So what is SpaceX going to do with a pair of assets that will not advanced the SpaceX goal of going to Mars? If someone is willing to use those stranded assets, let them landed on the Moon. Otherwise those assets will be recycled.

[DistantTemple]

SpaceX doesn't and will not go out of its way to humiliate its largest and most important client.

AIUI, if the Congress hesitates. That means no or very little funding for the HLS program. So what is SpaceX going to do with a pair of assets that will not advanced the SpaceX goal of going to Mars? If someone is willing to use those stranded assets, let them landed on the Moon. Otherwise those assets will be recycled.

If SpaceX has kitted out the Lunar SS for 4 or more astronauts they could sell tickets on an "international" return to the moon. At $500M / seat they could send the next 2US, 1Euro, 1 Japan, 1 Canadian... (+ others?) and receive >$2.5B, (maybe even cheaper (than$500M, if the NASA money is expected to eventually arrive) which could be portrayed as getting NASA/USgov out of the stranglehold of bad law, old space and BO, depending on which roadblocks cause the most holdups. Maybe a different project/budget would have to be invented, perhaps, Eros (love), Pegasus (collaboration), or Concordia (cooperation)!

[Paul451]

So what is SpaceX going to do with a pair of assets that will not advanced the SpaceX goal of going to Mars?

Whatever the client who paid to develop those assets wants done with them. SpaceX isn't going to scrap (nor privately use) assets that belong to NASA. Probably legally can't.


Meanwhile, the vanilla Starship will continue to be developed: launch, recovery, cargo, tankers, getting rated for national-security launches, getting rated for crew, and possibly with an unmanned test flight or three to Mars. Beyond that, it depends how interested or hostile Congress gets over SpaceX's Mars plans. (NASA will want to be involved, ideally supplying the first astronauts to Mars, and it's clear that SpaceX would welcome them. But while SpaceX's likely development timetable is not "long term" by the standards of typical space programs, it's clear that most politicians haven't grokked the scale of what has changed, so too early to tell how they will react en-mass.)

[DistantTemple]

So what is SpaceX going to do with a pair of assets that will not advanced the SpaceX goal of going to Mars?

Whatever the client who paid to develop those assets wants done with them. SpaceX isn't going to scrap (nor privately use) assets that belong to NASA. Probably legally can't.


Meanwhile, the vanilla Starship will continue to be developed: launch, recovery, cargo, tankers, getting rated for national-security launches, getting rated for crew, and possibly with an unmanned test flight or three to Mars. Beyond that, it depends how interested or hostile Congress gets over SpaceX's Mars plans. (NASA will want to be involved, ideally supplying the first astronauts to Mars, and it's clear that SpaceX would welcome them. But while SpaceX's likely development timetable is not "long term" by the standards of typical space programs, it's clear that most politicians haven't grokked the scale of what has changed, so too early to tell how they will react en-mass.)

Hopefully some politicians will start saying that as well as restoring the US's status as THE leading space nation, Elon is rebuilding the US's industrial base, and putting America back to work, with many of the jobs being high quality, but for practical working people (not sales, advertising, consulting etc). EM will soon employ 100K Americans, and that's increasing!
Knocking him is not the same as knocking companies that shift boxes, or undercut taxis! Where training, and the industries created have less intrinsic or moral value.
Politicians should see him and what he does as a whole heard of gift-horses, and do what they can to provide pasture, fodder, and purchase his services. (whilst holding the door open for any company that is seriously trying to catch up)