Author Topic: Artemis program policy discussion  (Read 41715 times)

Offline su27k

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Artemis program policy discussion
« on: 07/23/2019 02:47 am »
CBS interviewed Pence with some interesting questions: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mike-pence-interview-vice-president-reaffirms-administration-support-for-moon-first-strategy/

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Despite appearances and a presidential tweet suggesting otherwise, the United States is "100%" committed to sending astronauts back to the moon in 2024 and establishing a long-term, sustainable presence there as a stepping stone to eventual piloted flights to Mars, Vice President Mike Pence said in an interview for CBS News' "The Takeout."

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The SLS "is behind schedule, and it's over budget," Pence said in an interview Saturday with CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett. "But the truth is that since the start of the Space Launch System program, many administrations have underfunded it, have (not given) it the attention that it deserves.

"This administration will not make that mistake. We're committed to the work being done in Huntsville with the Space Launch System."

But, he added, "if we can't get there on the platforms that we're building today, the rockets we're building today, we're going to get there by any means necessary. Because the president really does believe that American leadership in human space exploration is essential."

...

While NASA and, for now, the Trump administration are committed to the SLS for government moon missions, "we're going to continue to lean on" SpaceX and Blue Origin, Pence said. "We're going to continue to look to them to give us alternatives to ... provide American leadership in human space exploration."
« Last Edit: 07/27/2019 09:33 pm by gongora »

Online yg1968

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This interview is worth watching. Some tough and interesting questions were asked.
« Last Edit: 07/23/2019 04:13 am by yg1968 »

Offline freddo411

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CBS interviewed Pence with some interesting questions: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mike-pence-interview-vice-president-reaffirms-administration-support-for-moon-first-strategy/

Quote
Despite appearances and a presidential tweet suggesting otherwise, the United States is "100%" committed to sending astronauts back to the moon in 2024 and establishing a long-term, sustainable presence there as a stepping stone to eventual piloted flights to Mars, Vice President Mike Pence said in an interview for CBS News' "The Takeout."

Quote
The SLS "is behind schedule, and it's over budget," Pence said in an interview Saturday with CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett. "But the truth is that since the start of the Space Launch System program, many administrations have underfunded it, have (not given) it the attention that it deserves.

"This administration will not make that mistake. We're committed to the work being done in Huntsville with the Space Launch System."

But, he added, "if we can't get there on the platforms that we're building today, the rockets we're building today, we're going to get there by any means necessary. Because the president really does believe that American leadership in human space exploration is essential."

...

While NASA and, for now, the Trump administration are committed to the SLS for government moon missions, "we're going to continue to lean on" SpaceX and Blue Origin, Pence said. "We're going to continue to look to them to give us alternatives to ... provide American leadership in human space exploration."

Bah.   This was the line we got from Jim B in February.   The truth is that SLS has slipped again.   So will Jim B and Pence stop teasing the public with the SpaceX/BO option or will they follow through on the rhetoric?

Offline JohnFornaro

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The truth is that SLS has slipped again.   So will Jim B and Pence stop teasing the public with the SpaceX/BO option or will they follow through on the rhetoric?

They've created a slippery slope for SLS to slide on, apparently.  The coefficient of friction of a dollar bill must be decreasing.  It takes more and more dollar bills to keep the schedule slipping at the approved rate.  "Approved" in the sense that nobody is held accountable for the slippage.

About the "teasing": On the plus side, at least SpaceX figured out why the capsule blew up the other day.  Safety counts.  Sounds like BO has also made progress on their capsule.  We still have the Gateway itself, the lander and other assorted hardware still to be built.  Any news on those elements?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline su27k

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Key House appropriator still skeptical of NASA’s lunar plans

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At a hearing of the commerce, justice and science (CJS) subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee about the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Rep. José Serrano (D-N.Y.) said that while he and other committee members supported NASA in general, he didn’t understand why it was so important to move up the schedule for landing humans on the moon to 2024.

“While I support a continued human presence in space, I remain concerned about the estimated cost — in excess of $20 billion over the next few years — to unnecessarily speed up by just four years the schedule for returning American astronauts to the moon,” he said in his opening remarks. “Arbitrarily changing this schedule will have grave consequences for other vital programs across the science fields and other programs across the government.”

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In recent days, Bridenstine has visited with several House appropriators. He tweeted out July 16 and 17 pictures of him meeting with Serrano as well as Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), who also serve on the CJS appropriations subcommittee.

Bridenstine in one tweet thanked Serrano for his “continued support” of NASA’s programs. “We both agree that ongoing bipartisan support in Congress is critical for NASA’s return to the Moon and on to Mars as we inspire the #Artemis generation,” he wrote.

Online Eric Hedman

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Key House appropriator still skeptical of NASA’s lunar plans

Quote
At a hearing of the commerce, justice and science (CJS) subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee about the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Rep. José Serrano (D-N.Y.) said that while he and other committee members supported NASA in general, he didn’t understand why it was so important to move up the schedule for landing humans on the moon to 2024.

“While I support a continued human presence in space, I remain concerned about the estimated cost — in excess of $20 billion over the next few years — to unnecessarily speed up by just four years the schedule for returning American astronauts to the moon,” he said in his opening remarks. “Arbitrarily changing this schedule will have grave consequences for other vital programs across the science fields and other programs across the government.”
The importance of moving up the schedule is to remove four more years of opportunity to change direction again.

Offline RonM

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Key House appropriator still skeptical of NASA’s lunar plans

Quote
At a hearing of the commerce, justice and science (CJS) subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee about the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Rep. José Serrano (D-N.Y.) said that while he and other committee members supported NASA in general, he didn’t understand why it was so important to move up the schedule for landing humans on the moon to 2024.

“While I support a continued human presence in space, I remain concerned about the estimated cost — in excess of $20 billion over the next few years — to unnecessarily speed up by just four years the schedule for returning American astronauts to the moon,” he said in his opening remarks. “Arbitrarily changing this schedule will have grave consequences for other vital programs across the science fields and other programs across the government.”
The importance of moving up the schedule is to remove four more years of opportunity to change direction again.

Not really, this is a change in direction. It's about having the return to the Moon during the Trump administration (assuming he wins reelection). I don't blame him, if I was in his place I'd like to get the credit too instead of the next guy.

Unfortunately for Trump the Democrats control the House. They don't see a reason to speed up the schedule. That's why I don't think Artemis 2024 is going to happen. There isn't a political consensus for it.

Online yg1968

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Key House appropriator still skeptical of NASA’s lunar plans

Quote
At a hearing of the commerce, justice and science (CJS) subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee about the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Rep. José Serrano (D-N.Y.) said that while he and other committee members supported NASA in general, he didn’t understand why it was so important to move up the schedule for landing humans on the moon to 2024.

“While I support a continued human presence in space, I remain concerned about the estimated cost — in excess of $20 billion over the next few years — to unnecessarily speed up by just four years the schedule for returning American astronauts to the moon,” he said in his opening remarks. “Arbitrarily changing this schedule will have grave consequences for other vital programs across the science fields and other programs across the government.”
The importance of moving up the schedule is to remove four more years of opportunity to change direction again.

Not really, this is a change in direction. It's about having the return to the Moon during the Trump administration (assuming he wins reelection). I don't blame him, if I was in his place I'd like to get the credit too instead of the next guy.

Unfortunately for Trump the Democrats control the House. They don't see a reason to speed up the schedule. That's why I don't think Artemis 2024 is going to happen. There isn't a political consensus for it.

It's more nuanced then that. Rep. José Serrano opposes the 2024 deadline but only to the extent that this earlier date increases the cost of the program. There is no indication that a 2024 date will increase the cost of the Artemis program at this point. In any event, it's a fair question to ask and Bridenstine is likely get a chance (after the hearing) to answer that question when they meet each other in private.

My own view is that the lander is unlikely to be funded under a CR as Democrats will want to have the details of the entire Artemis program before committing to this earlier 2024 date. That amount of detail will only be available once the 2021 NASA Budget is out in the spring of 2020.
« Last Edit: 07/25/2019 06:09 pm by yg1968 »

Offline freddo411

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Hoping this post gets us back on topic.

These seem to be the actual effects of Artemis, compared to the POR from 2017.

* Strong push for the 2024 date on SLS and Orion programs
* Acceptance of the use of commercial rockets for delivery to the Gateway for modules and resupply
* Quick, non-compete awards for Gateway modules to established but non-dominated aerospace contractors
* Arguably some scope limitations on Gateway
* Lunar CLPS landers contracts to non-dominated aerospace contractors
* Beginnings of a manned lander
* NASA personnel and management attitude changes

I'm pleased to see commercial rockets start to get their nose under NASA's metaphorical tent.   The forces that resisted this previously in the name of protecting SLS were keeping NASA on the ground.   Having commercial rockets in the mix actually creates good reasons to fly SLS.   There is still a very strong bias to distort elements of the architecture so as to require SLS -- maybe we can finally get past that. 

We should all applaud the schedule improvement and focus on 2024.  I find the new pace quite slow, but it is an improvement on the pace during the prior 12 years.  Arguing the political overtones is poor form (and we all should know that the actual landings, if any, would happen past the current administration anyway). 

Offline Coastal Ron

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This also ignores the Senate’s influence, not only will the Republican-dominated Senate push for $1.6 billion because it’s a partisan priority but also because it means more money for Alabama and Texas and reinforces SLS’s position as the cornerstone of NASA’s moon ambitions.

Senator Shelby does head up the Senate Appropriations committee, but it takes 60 votes in the Senate to ensure passage of anything, and Republican's don't have those numbers. Plus whatever the Senate passes has to be reconciled with the House.

I'm not ruling anything out, but the natural reaction to anything new but controversial is to do nothing in Congress, and Trump is not helping himself on this matter when he questions the NASA Administrator in public about why we're not going to Mars instead of the Moon next.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online TheRadicalModerate

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #10 on: 07/25/2019 06:52 pm »
Hoping this post gets us back on topic.

These seem to be the actual effects of Artemis, compared to the POR from 2017.

* Strong push for the 2024 date on SLS and Orion programs
* Acceptance of the use of commercial rockets for delivery to the Gateway for modules and resupply
* Quick, non-compete awards for Gateway modules to established but non-dominated aerospace contractors
* Arguably some scope limitations on Gateway
* Lunar CLPS landers contracts to non-dominated aerospace contractors
* Beginnings of a manned lander
* NASA personnel and management attitude changes

I'm pleased to see commercial rockets start to get their nose under NASA's metaphorical tent.   The forces that resisted this previously in the name of protecting SLS were keeping NASA on the ground.   Having commercial rockets in the mix actually creates good reasons to fly SLS.   There is still a very strong bias to distort elements of the architecture so as to require SLS -- maybe we can finally get past that. 

We should all applaud the schedule improvement and focus on 2024.  I find the new pace quite slow, but it is an improvement on the pace during the prior 12 years.  Arguing the political overtones is poor form (and we all should know that the actual landings, if any, would happen past the current administration anyway).

I see Artemis more as establishing all the necessary predicates for making the continuation of SLS untenable.  Until it's gone, not only is 2024 unfeasible but so is 2028, and likely even 2032.  Its sole purpose has been reduced to putting Orion into TLI, but even with that it's soaking up about $1.5B a launch more than a commercial option would.

To that end, congressional pushback on the price tag is a good thing.  Eventually, somebody is going to ask a serious question about how we could do this cheaper, and a serious answer will be forthcoming.  Things will get real interesting after that.

Offline HeartofGold2030

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #11 on: 07/25/2019 07:16 pm »
This also ignores the Senate’s influence, not only will the Republican-dominated Senate push for $1.6 billion because it’s a partisan priority but also because it means more money for Alabama and Texas and reinforces SLS’s position as the cornerstone of NASA’s moon ambitions.

Senator Shelby does head up the Senate Appropriations committee, but it takes 60 votes in the Senate to ensure passage of anything, and Republican's don't have those numbers. Plus whatever the Senate passes has to be reconciled with the House.

I'm not ruling anything out, but the natural reaction to anything new but controversial is to do nothing in Congress, and Trump is not helping himself on this matter when he questions the NASA Administrator in public about why we're not going to Mars instead of the Moon next.

I fully agree with you that Trump’s involvement has not been beneficial to the cause. However, maybe NASA ignoring the polarising Trump’s desire to go straight to Mars and instead heading for the Moon could remove some of the partisan stigma?

Talking of Shelby, I think he’ll be determined to fund Artemis because it gives SLS a purpose and accelerates it’s development; and when NASA starts questioning these two factors (SLS’ purpose and speed of development) bad things happen for Shelby, he probably still has PTSD from the Falcon-Heavy study debacle earlier this year. Shelby knows SLS’ days are numbered so he needs to give it a time to shine before it inevitably perishes, Artemis is perfect for that.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #12 on: 07/25/2019 07:38 pm »
This also ignores the Senate’s influence, not only will the Republican-dominated Senate push for $1.6 billion because it’s a partisan priority but also because it means more money for Alabama and Texas and reinforces SLS’s position as the cornerstone of NASA’s moon ambitions.

Senator Shelby does head up the Senate Appropriations committee, but it takes 60 votes in the Senate to ensure passage of anything, and Republican's don't have those numbers. Plus whatever the Senate passes has to be reconciled with the House.

I'm not ruling anything out, but the natural reaction to anything new but controversial is to do nothing in Congress, and Trump is not helping himself on this matter when he questions the NASA Administrator in public about why we're not going to Mars instead of the Moon next.

I fully agree with you that Trump’s involvement has not been beneficial to the cause. However, maybe NASA ignoring the polarising Trump’s desire to go straight to Mars and instead heading for the Moon could remove some of the partisan stigma?

We shouldn't anthropomorphize NASA - it's not a person. It is an organization that has more than 17,000 government employees, and the only NASA person authorized to make decisions about what NASA does is the NASA Administrator - who is a political appointee that works for the President of the United States.

So NASA can't, and never will, do something that the President of the United States doesn't want. But that doesn't mean that the President knows what they want, and that is the situation we have today with President Trump - he doesn't seem to know where he wants NASA to go next.

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Talking of Shelby, I think he’ll be determined to fund Artemis because it gives SLS a purpose and accelerates it’s development;

Shelby has had years to fund something for the SLS to do. YEARS. And hasn't. Without an accelerated development effort it's too late to fund payloads and programs for the SLS, since the SLS will likely be operational before the payloads will be, so the SLS will sit around for years or have to be launched on additional "test flights".

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...and when NASA starts questioning these two factors (SLS’ purpose and speed of development) bad things happen for Shelby...

See what I said about who speaks for NASA above. Only NASA Administrator Bridenstine can threaten anything, and he quickly stop doing that for SLS related issues.

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...he probably still has PTSD from the Falcon-Heavy study debacle earlier this year. Shelby knows SLS’ days are numbered so he needs to give it a time to shine before it inevitably perishes, Artemis is perfect for that.

Senator Shelby is in charge of determining what the Senate is going to spend money on. In some ways he is the most powerful person when it comes to NASA funding, even more than the President.

As to the SLS, since Senator Shelby has never pushed for any payloads or programs to be funded that MUST use the SLS, it sure seems that he has been more interested in jobs than in space exploration. I'll leave it at that...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online TheRadicalModerate

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #13 on: 07/25/2019 07:50 pm »

Shelby has had years to fund something for the SLS to do. YEARS. And hasn't. Without an accelerated development effort it's too late to fund payloads and programs for the SLS, since the SLS will likely be operational before the payloads will be, so the SLS will sit around for years or have to be launched on additional "test flights".

This is an important point, and I believe that the omission is strategic.  As we've seen with Artemis 2024, the moment that somebody puts a stake in the ground that requires a schedule and a budget, SLS looks awfully inadequate.  It's much better for Shelby's little fiefdom if it never flies.  The moment it does is the beginning of the end.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #14 on: 07/25/2019 08:16 pm »
I see Artemis more as establishing all the necessary predicates for making the continuation of SLS untenable.
How many times do you people need to be proven wrong about "the imminent demise of SLS" before it gets through your heads that it's not getting cancelled?  ::)
« Last Edit: 07/25/2019 08:18 pm by jadebenn »

Offline woods170

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #15 on: 07/25/2019 08:30 pm »
I see Artemis more as establishing all the necessary predicates for making the continuation of SLS untenable.
How many times do you people need to be proven wrong about "the imminent demise of SLS" before it gets through your heads that it's not getting cancelled?  ::)

Watch it... Some folks here said the same about CxP.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #16 on: 07/25/2019 08:38 pm »
Watch it... Some folks here said the same about CxP.
Constellation never even got past CDR. SLS has been bending metal for several years.

Congress is on-board with SLS, the administration is on-board with SLS, and the agency's leadership is on-board with SLS.

The situations are not even remotely similar.
« Last Edit: 07/25/2019 08:39 pm by jadebenn »

Offline speedevil

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #17 on: 07/25/2019 08:41 pm »
I see Artemis more as establishing all the necessary predicates for making the continuation of SLS untenable.
How many times do you people need to be proven wrong about "the imminent demise of SLS" before it gets through your heads that it's not getting cancelled?  ::)
In the context of this thread 'by 2024' seems not at all unlikely, and is pretty imminent from the perspective of a program begun in 2008ish.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #18 on: 07/25/2019 08:46 pm »
In the context of this thread 'by 2024' seems not at all unlikely, and is pretty imminent from the perspective of a program begun in 2008ish.
The fact that you think cancellation is at all likely at any point in the near-future, much less "imminent," baffles me. You don't need to like the program to acknowledge that it's not going to be cancelled under this administration.

Everyone currently in-government that has the power to cancel it are noted SLS supporters.
« Last Edit: 07/25/2019 08:50 pm by jadebenn »

Offline speedevil

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Re: Re: NASA's Artemis Program Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #19 on: 07/25/2019 08:50 pm »
In the context of this thread 'by 2024' seems not at all unlikely, and is pretty imminent from the perspective of a program begun in 2008ish.
The fact that you think cancellation is at all likely at any point in the near-future, much less "imminent," baffles me. You don't need to like the program to acknowledge that it's not going to be cancelled under this administration.
I consider its future not at all assured  (>50%) in the case that by 2024, inexpensive regular commercial access to the moon is available.


Tags: Trump Artemis 
 

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