Steam Punk Mars (Self Sufficient Survival through Low Tech)

[LMT]

Red Gold 1.0

Here's an outline of recent posts on a hypothetical martian "Red Gold" mining operation.  Red Gold would be a first commercial step toward winner-take-all metal mining in outer space.

All just for discussion.

--

1.  Asteroid Ore on Mars

Meteorites on the martian surface - the most accessible asteroid ores.

2.  Prospecting:  1, 2

Prospecting for metals from Low Mars Orbit, and then from the air.  Prelude to physical assay, claims, consortium, and a mining camp at "Mars Base Alpha".

3.  Red Gold

Considerations and working assumptions for a first martian metal mine.

4.  Entering the Process

Starting to reimagine the metal production process, at a Red Gold martian facility.

5.  Ore Comminution

Finding an easy way to cut meteoritic nickel-iron bodies down to size.

6.  Tailings

Using the ore's magnetic properties to separate it from silicates.

7.  Smelting

An electromagnetic smelting system to extract an alloy ingot for refinement.

8.  Red Gold with 100% Open-Air Martian Refining

Unpressurized saltwater reactors operating in the open on Mars, beneath liquid membranes.

9.  Refining Without A Drop From Earth

A Red Gold precious-metal refinery needing no liquid cargo from Earth, just minor dry additives for a saltwater reactor.

10.  Salt Harvest

Collecting all of the salts required for a Red Gold saltwater refinery.

11.  Water

An example low-latitude ice deposit, characteristic of sites that might conceivably offer both accessible water and also accessible ore.

12.  Water Harvest:  1, 2

Mining ice without digging, or without digging much.  A melt-down ISRU plant is proposed, with some scenarios for efficient water harvesting.

13.  Endgame

The meaning of winner-take-all.

--

Scale

If the Red Gold mine were scaled initially - and hypothetically - at $1 billion annual revenue, what would be the physical scale of gold production?

Some parameters:

- As before, we'd have to consider automated 3D jewelry printing and the pricing.  We'll say the jewelry uses 50% of gold production.  Pricing may be set at 5x the bullion price.

- The ore would yield some PGMs with the gold.  We might pick an arbitrary PGM production rate matching gold 1:1.

- PGMs would be incorporated into the Red Gold jewelry alloy.  We might pick a Red Gold alloy of gold/PGM/copper at 58.5/9/32.5.

These parameters call for daily gold production equal to a cube of gold 10 cm on a side. 

If the Red Gold mine produces that 10-cm gold cube daily, it's a $1 billion operation.





This is mine production at a modest, comprehensible scale.  All proposed Red Gold systems would be sized to match this scale.  Moving forward, maybe some new ideas will ease scaling.

--

[addendum]

14.  Red Gold 1.1

Foundry & PGMs, easing scale-up past $10 billion annual revenue.

[LMT]

Steampunk & Strategy

Strategic

Adj.

- of great importance within an integrated whole or to a planned effect

- required for the conduct of war and not available in adequate quantities domestically

The Divine Bounty has bestowed upon us inexhaustible mines of silver, and advantages which we enjoy above all our neighbouring cities, who never yet could discover one vein of silver ore in all their dominions.

After long decline, the Laurium mine was revived with discovery of a new silver vein in 482 BC.  Themistocles, anticipating invasion by Xerxes, persuaded Athenians to apply the new wealth toward construction of a war fleet.  Two years later the fleet was ready - 200 triremes thrown into service immediately in a war of naval attrition that slowed the Persian advance toward Athens.

After burning Athens, Xerxes moved to trap and sink the Greek fleet in the Straits of Salamis.  Xerxes' victory made possible today's elegant sirwal business pants and steampunk communications like the NSF auto-heliographic forum.

Or maybe someone might like to try a strategic analogy.

[LMT]

Red Gold 1.1 – Foundry & PGMs

...finding nickel-iron ready to just melt and use should not be hard...

...gradually, things like sheet and bar stock, glass, bricks, and various chemicals will be produced... The sheet stock can be used to make storage tanks..., the bar stock to make solar cell frames, etc. It's a lever up process. Things will have a weird mix. (crude storage tanks with sophisticated imported pumps and control electronics, etc) Which will be awesomely steampunk because steampunk is all about weird mixes.

Previously

Red Gold 1.0 proposed an induction smelter to extract base and precious metals from Type IVA meteoritic ore.  Max temperature was 1400 C, so the bulk of the iron-nickel foil-body did not melt.  After smelting, that body had a simplified composition of iron, nickel and cobalt, plus PGMs.

Two Challenges:  Sheet Metal & PGMs

How might that heated body be transformed into something useful:  “sheet and bar stock”, for example.

And what of those remaining PGMs?  Their combined mass is much greater than that of the extracted gold.  How to extract and separate them?

Observations

Kovar was developed as a corrosion-resistant alloy that could be joined with borosilicate glass.  Kovar has a low and nonlinear thermal expansion curve matching that of borosilicate glass.  This keeps metal/glass joints strong across a wide temperature range. 

Also Kovar has interesting composition, principally Fe-Ni-Co – coincidentally the main constituents of the glowing lump we’ve been ejecting from the Red Gold smelter.

Kovar’s composition, resistance to corrosion, and its low, glass-matched thermal expansion make it a candidate alloy for production at a Red Gold foundry.

One potential early application:  expanding the Red Gold facility.  Red Gold could scale more easily with ISRU fabrication of large, simple components – e.g., additional open-air reactor vessels, aka “crude storage tanks with sophisticated imported pumps and control electronics”.  On a winter morning those vessels might experience -140 C outside and +100 C inside, concurrently.  Kovar would manage that temperature difference well.

Reactor corrosion would be a concern.  While Kovar is generally suitable for saltwater tanks, and Red Gold’s low reaction temperatures and anoxic atmosphere minimize corrosion, sulfur is a real problem.  Sulfides, such as the H2S produced in refining method (I.), might call for a different reactor alloy, or a protective lining.  Kane & Cayard 1998.  Also I imagine electrolytic reactors would also need some protective lining, perhaps an ISRU plastic.

But assuming Kovar could serve, how might it be produced?  We might extend the smelting process.

Foundry

After extracting gold, increase temperature to obtain Kovar elements.  Their respective elemental melting points are:

- Ni:  1455 C

- Co:  1495 C

- Fe:  1538 C

These temperatures represent the points of maximum elemental concentration in the melt.  It’s understood that some metals are alloyed, and each alloy inclusion will have some particular melting point, but these are the temperatures to target for peak concentration, as a first effort. 

PGMs are also alloyed.  Notably, little if any Fe-PGM alloy melts below 1510 C.  For comparison:

- Fe-Ni inclusions begin melting at 1440 C,

- Fe-Co inclusions begin melting at 1476 C, and

- a characteristic bulk meteoritic Ni 8 wt% alloy melts ~ 1505 C. 

Therefore you could preserve most PGMs and most bulk Fe-Ni alloy as solids, while extracting metals for Kovar, by limiting temperature to the elemental Co melting point of 1495 C. 

If the bulk meteoritic Fe-Ni alloy had unusually high nickel content, bulk melting point would be lower: e.g. bulk Ni 10 wt% ~ 1500 C.  This might risk bulk melt (and loss of PGMs).  All tbd experimentally, but we might just say that an ore body with comparatively low Ni concentration would be preferable for this proposed smelting step.

That step being done, some minor Kovar Pd melt impurity might occur if any Fe-Pd alloy had > 2 wt% Pd content.  But if alloys are < 2 wt%, or if minor Pd Kovar impurity is acceptable, the Kovar melt could skip refining.  The melt could be powdered and sintered as-is.  Powder is a useful form because it can be obtained directly from the 1495 C melt via centrifugal atomizer as in Potts 2017 and then sintered at 1200 C to form plates etc. as in Görkem 2017.  (Sintered product now provides the system’s energy-efficient heat-exchange.)

The powder must be apportioned to give the Kovar alloy composition:  Fe/Ni/Co 54/29/17.  Conceivably this might be done by capturing each melt powder separately at each elemental peak concentration temperature.  Fe-Co would be the base powder, and Fe-Ni powder would be added to give the needed composition.  As Co is the least abundant element, Kovar production would be cobalt-limited, and further Co concentration steps may be needed.  Also additional Ni might be obtained from Red Gold refining method (I.).

PGMs

After Kovar metals are extracted, a heated iron body remains in the smelter, a mass of soft foil enriched in PGMs.  The PGMs may be extracted with the Shor Simplicity electrolytic process, much as before.

To do that, you might press and cut the massed foils into porous electrolysis plates, then lower the plates into the Shor electrolytic reactor.  GC salt electrolysis dissolves the remaining nickel and precipitates mixed PGMs; then ammonia solution dissolves the PGMs.  Iron does not dissolve because reactor pH is, I think, never extremely low. 

The refined iron plates are removed and stored for use as-is, or else for use in Kovar.

Hydrazine precipitates the PGMs sequentially.

--

Red Gold 1.1

Appending Kovar and PGM steps to the previous Red Gold 1.0 sequence:

Kovar Steps

Kovar production has some theoretical components, but just for discussion, here are the appended Kovar steps:

Smelting

11.1  Microwave as in (4.) and then induction-heat as in (5.), to ~ 1455 C, to melt and extract elemental Ni and Fe-Ni alloy. 

11.2  Store Ni-rich powder, via centrifugal atomizer of Potts 2017.

11.3  Microwave as in (4.) and then induction-heat as in (5.), to ~ 1495 C, to melt and extract elemental Co and Fe-Co alloy.

11.4  Store Co-rich powder.

11.5  Apportion powders of (11.2) and (11.4), plus any supplemental Fe, Ni and Co, for Kovar composition:  Fe/Ni/Co 54/29/17.
 
11.6  Sinter Kovar powder into foundry products at 1200 C. Görkem 2017.

12.1  (optional)  For energy-efficiency, store hot foundry products of (11.6) temporarily between the smelter and external insulation, in some heat-exchange configuration.

PGM Steps

And here are the additional PGM steps:

Refining

28.  After smelter step (11.3) remove the remaining massed foils, and press and cut the foils into porous electrolysis plates.

29.  Apply the Red Gold electrolytic steps (19.) to (22.) to the Fe-PGM plates.  PGMs dissolve, but the iron does not dissolve because reactor pH is never extremely low. 

30.  Remove the refined iron plates and store for use as-is, or else for reuse in Kovar production.

31.  Recover PGMs:  Add ammonia to dissolve PGMs as in (25.); add hydrazine to precipitate PGMs sequentially as in (26.).

--

Revenue

Depending on PGM yield and jewelry use, and given the somewhat artificial working assumptions, these additional PGMs could contribute as much as $7 billion to annual Red Gold revenue, raising total revenue toward $8 billion.

Moreover, some asteroids have higher PGM concentrations than the Type IVA working assumption.  For example, Type IIIA PGM concentration can be 3x higher.  (Coincidentally, the highest PGM concentrations correspond with lowest Ni concentrations, < 8 wt%, and this eases the Kovar cobalt separation step (11.3).)  Hoashi 1990.

Were the Red Gold facility to work a rich Type IIIA debris field, annual revenue could readily exceed $10 billion, making Red Gold the #1 precious-metal firm system-wide, in terms of revenue - and using only the initial, small-scale systems, which were envisioned with sizing for daily production of a 10-cm gold ingot.





Refs.

Görkem, K. (2017). Characterization of Kovar Material Produced by Powder Metallurgy.

Hoashi, M. (1990). The platinum group metals in iron meteorites: thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Chemistry, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand (Doctoral dissertation, Massey University).

Kane, R. D., & Cayard, M. S. (1998). Roles of H2S in the behavior of engineering alloys: a review of literature and experience. CORROSION 98.

Potts, C. W. (2017). Development of a Centrifugal Atomizer (Doctoral dissertation, California State University, Sacramento).

[LMT]

Mass to Mars

Red Gold would refine metals under exceptional mass constraint, so the exercise cuts mass wherever possible: arguably it eliminates pressure vessel reactors, eliminates liquid cargo, and baselines processes as open-loop systems. All to cut mass, and sometimes, complexity.

Other applicable mass-reduction methods can be considered. Those of you who've worked on spacecraft, aircraft, or airlifted systems might know any number of applicable methods.

Some ideas on the whiteboard:

Mobile systems

Bulldozers and some other open-pit mobile mining systems would need greater mass to deliver mining force under martian gravity.  This mass needn’t be welded on Earth:  Fe-Ni ballast could substitute, dramatically reducing cargo mass.  Other changes might cut cargo mass further.  Ballparking from two examples:

- Caterpillar D3K2 Dozer



Power:  60 kW

Mass (unfueled):  7.9 tons

Winch lift:  11.3 tons

Switching to all-electric drive and aluminum chassis, removing the cab and hands-on systems, and fashioning drop-in blades from ISRU Kovar, cargo mass might drop to (ballpark) ~ 4 tons.

Under martian gravity the winch lifting capacity climbs to ~ 30 tons.

- Caterpillar R1300G Loader



Power:  123 kW

Mass (unfueled):  27.8 tons

Bucket capacity:  6.8 tons

Switching to all-electric drive and aluminum chassis, removing the cab and hands-on systems, and fashioning drop-in buckets from ISRU Kovar, cargo mass might drop to (ballpark) ~ 12 tons.

Under martian gravity the bucket capacity climbs to ~ 18 tons.

[2017: Caterpillar battery electric loader prototype]

These are first-glance numbers, but perhaps interesting.  They suggest achievable masses for various open-pit mobile mining systems, such as:

- Loader (high-power):  ~ 12 tons

- Dozer (low-power):  ~ 4 tons

- Ore trailer (unpowered):  ~ 2 tons

A SpaceX cargo spacecraft will have a payload to Mars in the range of 100-150 tons.  Therefore, conceivably, a single payload might comprise a variety of vehicles, even a small fleet, capable of working together to perform all mobile tasks required in and around a small open-pit worksite.

What other mass reduction methods might be feasible?  For example, how might tires be designed, for low mass in near-cryogenic operation?

Carbon-fiber composite reactors

The notional Red Gold reactors manage saltwater reactions at or below 100 C. Could carbon-fiber composite provide a low-mass option?



[SpaceX.  A completed carbon-fiber composite barrel section of SpaceX's ITS.]

One issue: Carbon-fiber composites have been seen to acquire moisture when exposed to seawater, and that would be a problem here as well. But has industry solved that problem already, to render composites suitable for use in seawater, and thereby in saltwater reactors?

Cable-free instruments

Some case studies illustrate benefits of wireless Internet of Things (IoT) instruments for mining. Also instruments may self-power, as with solar cell coverings. In the Red Gold facility instruments could self-power from sunlight and LED floodlighting. Where wireless IoT is combined with self-power, instruments operate without data cabling or power cabling. In a highly automated Red Gold facility, cable-free instrumentation could save many kilometers of cabling, and the associated mass and complexity.

Example: PRE-TEMP cable-free furnace temperature measurement.

Other examples of entirely cable-free instrumentation in mining and metallurgy would be of interest.

Extending that concept:

The notional Red Gold processes can leverage gravity flow. A crater has sloping ground, so each system component can be sited at elevation according to its position in the main process flow: e.g., first reactor at top, last reactor at bottom, vertical separation being set by pressure requirement. This removes many pumps from the main process flow, reducing mass and complexity. Only valves are required to control the downward flow.

The valves must be actuated. Typically actuators are powered electrically. If they could self-power off fluid flow, mass and complexity would be further reduced.

One industry requiring such fluid actuators is irrigation.

Example: Colt Irrigation's FluidPulse system:

FluidPulse is an automated valve system requiring no electricity; control is powered instead by fluid flow. Also IoT signalling is conducted through the irrigation piping. Thereby cables, PV, batteries, solenoids, and transmitters are eliminated, cutting mass and complexity significantly.
 


[FluidPulse pilot]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBgCKpCV-o4

[Video: Colt Irrigation. Retrofitting an existing wired valve by replacing the solenoid with FluidPulse pilot.]

FluidPulse tech might be adapted to the requirements of Red Gold. Or perhaps such a system has been implemented already within a refinery, or at a desalination plant. Example plant implementations would be of interest.

[LMT]

Garage

Context

A Red Gold facility is open-air.  Telerobotic maintenance seems appropriate here; it's performed by crews working remotely in comfort, notionally at SpaceX's Mars Base Alpha, which might be co-located within the same crater. You'd expect the facility design to make maintenance as easy as possible, leveraging cable-free instruments, chest-level connectors, standardized controls and displays, and so forth. Given such conveniences, most telerobotic tasks should be workaday, and robotic AI should be able to perform some tasks autonomously.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRMRkyD03N0

[Video: ESA/DLR]

Challenge

Some maintenance tasks would not be telerobotic. Say, for example, a fragment of electrolysis plate lodges within a reactor pipe. We'll posit the reactor must be disassembled.  It's a task requiring hands-on work. For such work a pressurized garage would seem necessary.

Presumably the reactor is sized as SpaceX cargo, some 8 m in diameter and perhaps 15 m tall. We can visualize it as something like this SpaceX barrel section, rotated vertically, stretched five stories tall.



[SpaceX.  A completed carbon-fiber composite barrel section of SpaceX's ITS.]

Like all large machines at the facility, this reactor is mounted on a wheeled chassis and positioned by tractors. In our repair scenario tractors wheel the reactor into the garage, where work is done in shirtsleeves.  The image above can serve as reference:  the garage would be a similar space, two stories taller.

Methods

How to build such a garage?  How to minimize cargo mass and complexity, while providing a pressurized workspace of, say, 10,000 m3?

Should an external airlock be appended, to admit the reactor while maintaining garage pressurization?

Could we leverage facility systems in some plausible way, to cut cargo mass?  Some tools at hand:

1.  Presumably a full complement of open-pit mobile systems would be available to move regolith about. 

2.  Also we can posit a mobile melt-down ISRU plant (1, 2), to melt pits into ice deposits that range up to 40 m thickness within mid-latitude craters.

3.  I suppose it's fair to posit a Kovar foundry, too, for sintered metal objects.

Maybe we'll find that facility systems can't contribute much to garage construction.  But I note them because we should at least consider any tools available in the Red Gold and Mars Base Alpha facilities, and not limit ourselves necessarily to common methods that assume no Mars infrastructure.

Methods don't have to be commercial tech presently, but something tangible is always nice.

[LMT]

Garage

Aerogel

Aerogel might serve as a very lightweight insulator for a Red Gold garage.  Aerogel can be obtained from a tiny cargo of tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS), using reactants and a catalyst (ammonia) abundant in the Red Gold facility or Mars Base Alpha pharmacy.

Airloy plates could serve even better, though the manufacturing process is proprietary, making applicability tbd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2PiK5vPIhk

Belzona Composite

The Belzona Composite Repair Solution cold bonding system could bond Kovar parts together into a finished form.  The polymer reaction runs at room temperature, and only a tiny Belzona Composite cargo payload would be needed to bond lapped Kovar parts inside the garage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncTYiKJveEM

Outside the garage, induction welding might be used.

--

What are some other low-mass materials that might be easily shipped or manufactured, and used to good effect in garage construction?

[Lar]

LMT: In https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45772.msg1859890#msg1859890 you posit some very precise temperature control requirements for preferentially extracting various elements from a melt. In earlier posts, I think John Smith 19 suggested using centrifuge separation (a billet is cooled from a melt while spinning at high speed and the elements separate out by weight, and then are machined off, doing the separation that way)

Did you consider that? It seems temperature control needs to be very precise in your scheme.

Is it possible to combine these? Centrifuging melt to draw off different elements?

of course, spinning something that has 1500 degree melt in it may not be exactly trivial.

I am loving this series.

[LMT]

LMT: In https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45772.msg1859890#msg1859890 you posit some very precise temperature control requirements for preferentially extracting various elements from a melt. In earlier posts, I think John Smith 19 suggested using centrifuge separation (a billet is cooled from a melt while spinning at high speed and the elements separate out by weight, and then are machined off, doing the separation that way)

Did you consider that? It seems temperature control needs to be very precise in your scheme.

Is it possible to combine these? Centrifuging melt to draw off different elements?

of course, spinning something that has 1500 degree melt in it may not be exactly trivial.

I am loving this series.

Unfortunately, no, molten gold and PGMs wouldn't separate in centrifuge; noted previously.  The method doesn't exist.

--

Temperature precision isn't needed for most Red Gold smelter steps.  The most precise step is of course the suggested separation of cobalt from the ore, which calls for something like +/-10 C precision.  That's unexceptional.  Also I suppose digital control of induction and microwave heat-positioning might target the heating for greater precision.

[john smith 19]

Garage

Aerogel

Aerogel might serve as a very lightweight insulator for a Red Gold garage.  Aerogel can be obtained from a tiny cargo of tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS), using reactants and a catalyst (ammonia) abundant in the Red Gold facility or Mars Base Alpha pharmacy.

Airloy plates could serve even better, though the manufacturing process is proprietary, making applicability tbd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2PiK5vPIhk

Belzona Composite

The Belzona Composite Repair Solution cold bonding system could bond Kovar parts together into a finished form.  The polymer reaction runs at room temperature, and only a tiny Belzona Composite cargo payload would be needed to bond lapped Kovar parts inside the garage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncTYiKJveEM

If this is real then they are talking about an available step change in the materials properties available to designers.

But that's a pretty big if.

[LMT]

If this is real then they are talking about an available step change in the materials properties available to designers.

But that's a pretty big if.

If what, exactly?

[john smith 19]

If this is real then they are talking about an available step change in the materials properties available to designers.

But that's a pretty big if.

If what, exactly?

The company of course.  It's an impressive video but I've learned to be very weary of well produced videos. Aerogels have been a real thing since the 1930's. Their claiming mfg in bulk with radically less fragility. Pretty much the holy grail of such research.

However I wouldn't call this "low tech" by any means, so OT for this thread (perhaps Advanced Concepts?)

[Ric Capucho]

Seems to me that the general assumption on this thread is that a bunch of entrepreneurial Martian colonists will be standing in a group baffled as to how they’ll make a buck.

In reality (IMHO) such steampunk endeavours would be conducted as part of an overall scientific social and economic study. There’s never been such an opportunity in human history.

So, clever people will devise social/economic experiments to study (for example) in situ oxygen production, in situ crop cultivation, in situ energy production, in fact in situ just about anything. But such studies won’t be too concerned about sustainability, efficiency and economic sense for years. It’ll be more akin to the current state of hot fusion research here on Earth where achieving fusion at all is a celebrated accomplishment. In situ (whatever the topic) at all will be likewise celebrated regardless of business sense.

Ric

[colbourne]

Seems to me that the general assumption on this thread is that a bunch of entrepreneurial Martian colonists will be standing in a group baffled as to how they’ll make a buck.

In reality (IMHO) such steampunk endeavours would be conducted as part of an overall scientific social and economic study. There’s never been such an opportunity in human history.

So, clever people will devise social/economic experiments to study (for example) in situ oxygen production, in situ crop cultivation, in situ energy production, in fact in situ just about anything. But such studies won’t be too concerned about sustainability, efficiency and economic sense for years. It’ll be more akin to the current state of hot fusion research here on Earth where achieving fusion at all is a celebrated accomplishment. In situ (whatever the topic) at all will be likewise celebrated regardless of business sense.
Ric

The idea behind this thread is nothing about making a buck .The idea is that Mars is possibly going to be a lifeboat for Earth, so that if Earth is hit by war , plague or asteroid strike, civilisation can carry on , on Mars.
The problem is that Mars will then have to be responsible for everything to maintain life with, no trade or contact with Earth, and as you can see from this thread that it is not too easy, especially in the early days of the colony.
If Mars is ever going to have the capability of being a life boat for Earth, there are a few core technologies that will have to be mastered to give them (and humanity) a chance. We might as well work out what those are , even if they will never be needed otherwise you will find your "lifeboat" has a hole in it.

[Lar]

If the first human colonists arrive in 2024 and the catastrophe befalls earth in 2025, we're all done for.  But if the catastrophe befalls earth in 2525[1], there is a good chance that a thriving interplanetary economy, with billions in residence on various planets, dwarf planets, moons, asteroids, and free space, can easily take up the slack, mount a rescue operation and save the day.

Part of this thread, to me, is .. .how fast can we get things to the point where it's more like 2525 (with compromises) and there is hope. 10 years? 20? 50? 100?  The more low tech things that can be done solely with ISRU there are, the faster Mars can lever up to be that rescue capable civilization (or carry on if rescue is not possible), I think. And even if that's not needed, the smaller the mass fraction (and dollar amount) that is needed for import, the faster the economy can grow, absent all other factors having influence.

1 - I think there was a song about this. ... "in the year 2525... "

[LMT]

If this is real then they are talking about an available step change in the materials properties available to designers.

But that's a pretty big if.

If what, exactly?

The company of course.  It's an impressive video but I've learned to be very weary of well produced videos. Aerogels have been a real thing since the 1930's. Their claiming mfg in bulk with radically less fragility. Pretty much the holy grail of such research.

However I wouldn't call this "low tech" by any means, so OT for this thread (perhaps Advanced Concepts?)

Well, we shouldn't cast doubt without specific reason.  The only question, in thread context, is whether the proprietary Airloy mfg process can be implemented readily under martian conditions.  Aerogel mfg on Mars looks easy enough, but Airloy mfg difficulty is tbd.

--

Garage

Judging from posts, there's not much interest in Red Gold here, much less a garage.  Quick notes on one approach:

- 10,000 m3 seems feasible if ice is > 20 m deep.

- The crane + melt-down ISRU system could flash-vaporize a cylindrical space, ~ 27 m across and 20 m deep.

- A 1-ton super-pressure "tawara" inflatable of Izutsu et al. 2010, having 2 kPa pressure delta, can press against ice and Kovar roofing for space pressurization.  Anchored roofing supports ore weight and a roll-through airlock.

- Airlock floor doubles as winched elevator, which descends into the garage.

- Aerogel / Airloy panels give thermal insulation, soundproofing and fire protection.  Belzona polymer enables assembly of Kovar flooring.

- One cargo payload suffices.  Airlock, elevator and inflatable mass < 20 t.  This leaves 80-130 t of cargo for life support, environmental control, toolkits and, presumably, 3D printers. 

Print

3D printers could make replacement tools, or new tools, from Kovar or other powder.  This capability would be very useful in a garage.

Moreover this capability could enable some industry.  A printer that makes tools can also make parts:  replacements or new parts.  For example a Kovar printer might make replacement parts for a FluidPulse valve, and parts for new valves.  Here only the electronics are shipped from Earth - a chip insert.

In the garage 3D printers can be stacked along the wall; an array of dozens or even hundreds of printers, rising up to six stories high, just as needed.  But of course a wall of printers would call for definite need.  What industrial needs might call for so many printers?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utxzFxQ0hOY


Refs.

Izutsu, N., Akita, D., Fuke, H., Iijima, I., Kato, Y., Kawada, J., ... & Nonaka, N. (2010). Development of a super-pressure balloon with an improved design. TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY FOR AERONAUTICAL AND SPACE SCIENCES, AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY JAPAN, 8(ists27), Pm_7-Pm_13.

[Ric Capucho]

I’m not someone who likes to quote responses, so forgive me for that.

Lars, I agree a one year time frame between first Mars arrivers and some form of Earth catastrophe means game over. But I’m also way more optimistic than waiting five hundred years until we’re thriving across the entire solar system.

Bear with me, folks.

(IMHO)

For the first 10-20 years we’ll be stuck in a cycle of scientific in situ experiments as I’ve outlined in my previous post. During this era everything will be supplied from Earth except maybe rocket fuel because the lowest hanging fruit of all is a Mars atmosphere seemingly composed solely to give humankind an endless supply of methane to be used as return to Earth propellant.

For the next 10-20 years afterwards (the seond era) there’ll be meaningful production of basic needs on an economic and logic basis, such as air, energy, glass (yes!) and of course food.

But the creation of an entire industrial base needed to build even a TV (or whatever the Jetsons watch the, erm, Jetsons on in the evening) will likely take another one hundred years again. But sometimes towards the end of that subsequent one hundred years an industrial critical mass will be reached, and pow, the supply ties with Earth will be rapidly cut. Don’t think Mars, look around and think of the industrialisation of Japan and China and many others over the last fifty years.

Some might think I’m being pessimistic, but actually from the bare bones of an industrial revolution around Manchester to where we are today took only two hundred years. We can wait another 100-150 years.

Last point: why extract resources and energy locally on Mars, at the bottom of a gravity well, albeit a lowish gravity well? There’s an endless amount of energy and resources outside of any meaningful gravity well. And therefore I’m with Iain Banks and many others in thinking that the industrialisation of the solar system is likely to be off the surface of any planet or large moon. So I look forward to the Steampunk technology thread for free fall environments.

I love this entire thread, by the way.

Ric

[Ric Capucho]

Mr Colbourne, point noted. The thread’s basically a Bedenken experiment, and therefore lots of fun for someone like me.

Ric

[colbourne]

Ric is this what you are referring to ? Bedenken experimen   = Gedankenexperiment, (German: “thought experiment”) term used by German-born physicist Albert Einstein to describe his unique approach of using conceptual rather than actual experiments in creating the theory of relativity.

I agree that for the first few years the base even if fully supplied from Earth will still just be in survival mode. I almost feel trying to get the early settlers to build a fuel plant is pushing them too hard as the power requirements will probably be so high and will be more  valuable for other needs.

I think a fall back plan for if contact is lost with Earth should be planned from the start and as that was one of Elon's stated goals for Mars as a lifeboat for Earth he probably has an idea of how to do this. I guess tunneling is quite high on his list. I think a machine to  make plastics from the atmosphere and ice should be provided. Seeds are a very compact way of sending a lot of valuable tools. Making an air purifier that can be indefinately maintained is obviously essential but could be carried out by biological processes with the right research.

[Ric Capucho]

Go figure, and I’ve lived in the German speaking part of Switzerland for almost twenty years. :-)

Gedanken it is.

Ric

[Ric Capucho]

On the point of in situ refuelling, I seem to remember that the BFS that SpaceX intends to land on Mars won’t have enough fuel for the return flight, so unless they’re very brave then the first arrivals will be depending on in situ refuelling because the return ticket will be useless without it.

If I’m wrong and BFS will arrive with enough fuel for the return journey then feel free to shoot me down.

Anyways, solar energy might help hurry all this along, but I’m guessing a compact nuke or three will be manifested.

Ric