CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018

[ehb]

CNBC:

ALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC

https://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/998692403241402368

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[gongora]

Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

[speedevil]

Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Assuming  second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)

[gongora]

Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Assuming  second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)

Not assuming anything, she gave those targets for numbers of launches (2019 similar to 2017).

[S.Paulissen]

CNBC:

ALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC

*snipped link*

*snipped link*

Well at least one person isn't fooled...

"BFR, that's Big Effing Rocket..." - interviewer

[speedevil]

Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Assuming  second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)

Not assuming anything, she gave those targets for numbers of launches (2019 similar to 2017).

Indeed.
Interesting claim of a dip in 2019, and seems to rule out Starlink in 2019.
That, combined with reuse may give a lot of space to build hardware for a rapid campaign even in 2020.

[abaddon]

Interesting claim of a dip in 2019, and seems to rule out Starlink in 2019.

I don't think so.  She also talked about SpaceX owning "about sixty percent of the launch market".  Clearly she's talking about competed/contracted launches here, not all launches.  I therefore think this is specifically regarding to contracted launches and not necessarily internal ones.

Now, it might be Starlink isn't ready in 2019 and does not contribute to the manifest, but I don't think this information rules out that we might see some Starlink launches next year.

[MikeAtkinson]

[Lars-J]

So according to their VP of production(?) and Gwynne, they can produce ~1 M1D engine per day, and one F9 every 14 days. (~26/year)

Now that first stage reuse will kick in, we'll see how that changes now that they have to build more second stages and fewer first stages. But in the near term, it looks like their current production rate will be sufficient, if they will 'only' have ~18 launches in 2019.

[wannamoonbase]

Sounds like some reasons to not worry about some sliding from 2018 into 2019.

Or she’s letting potential customers know there are launch opportunities open.

[M.E.T.]

The dip in 2019 is surprising, and should arguably be concerning, pending further details. A sign of a revenue dip next year?

Barring Starlink, which I still maintain is not external launch revenue flowing into the company, but is instead merely an added cost until such time as customers start paying for internet subscriptions, have they topped out their annual revenue potential in 2018? I thought they had $10 billion in launches lined up. Why would they not try and tap into as much as possible of that revenue as soon as possible, unless the market currently cannot carry more launches?

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

[gongora]

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

[testguy]

It will be interesting to hear what she has to say about BFR.  I believe Shotwell or the interviewer indicated it is on schedule.  BFR was supposed to be funded through profit from operations.  I’m wondering what the dip in 2019 launches will do to the schedule.

[M.E.T.]

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

[gongora]

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

I'm still trying to figure out what those 100 launches would even be, unless they shoved 30-40 Starlink flights in there.

[yg1968]

There is also this video (which isn't on YouTube):

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/22/spacex-rockets-to-the-top-of-cnbcs-disruptor-50-list.html

[M.E.T.]

This news is particularly interesting in light of the recent furore about the Ariane chief’s comments on how the launch market isn’t large enough to pay for reuse (he was throwing around a number of 30 or so launches as a mininum requirement for Ariane).

We know the plan is for that not to be the case as the market expands, but it would seem based on these numbers that this expansion may not be in time for the 2019 calendar year to maintain current SpaceX launch levels.

Interesting.

[wannamoonbase]

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

Launch contracts are signed years in advance.  If one wants to judge SpaceX success then look at where they were 2-3 years ago and launching now, or contracts they are signing now launching in 2-3 years.

As for revenue, I’d expect a crew launch plus cargo to be worth more than a couple Comsats.

Also, if they were worried about revenue or profit (to a big degree) they wouldn’t have just cut launch prices. 

It will interesting to hear what Gwyneth says, but I don’t expect anything g revolutionary

[M.E.T.]

I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year.  That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch.  Starlink isn't ready yet.  What else are they going to launch?

Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.
I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.

Launch contracts are signed years in advance.  If one wants to judge SpaceX success then look at where they were 2-3 years ago and launching now, or contracts they are signing now launching in 2-3 years.

As for revenue, I’d expect a crew launch plus cargo to be worth more than a couple Comsats.

Also, if they were worried about revenue or profit (to a big degree) they wouldn’t have just cut launch prices. 

It will interesting to hear what Gwyneth says, but I don’t expect anything g revolutionary

Oh sure. I’m not concerned about SpaceX’s long term profitability. Just trying to evaluate  the potential brake a (relatively) low revenue 2019 year might put on the pace of their BFR development, which Musk stated would largely be funded from F9 revenues.